Acta geographica Slovenica, 62-1, 2022, 89–104 TOURISM CARRYING CAPACITY IN THE MUNICIPALITIES OF TOLMIN, KOBARID AND KOMEN Igor Jurinčič Traffic at the confluence of Tolminka and Soča rivers in August 2019. B LA Ž M O Č N IK (© D E LO ) 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 89 Igor Jurinčič, Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.10556 UDC: 911.3:338.48(497.47) COBISS: 1.01 Igor Jurinčič1 Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen ABSTRACT: The study of tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen has shown that the infrastructural and economic carrying capacity is the most problematic, as most indi- cator limits are already exceeded in the summer season. The most favourable is the spatial-ecological carrying capacity, where none of the studied indicator limits were exceeded. The results of the carrying capacity assessment for tourism in these municipalities should not be used as a tool to restrict tourism development, but rather as expert recommendations to promote more sustainable tourism development. Infrastructure identified as deficient cannot be improved immediately. Improvements require large financial investments that municipalities are not able to ensure quickly. We need a tourism development strategy that, in addi- tion to all the necessary improvements, comprehensively addresses the problems that municipalities face from overtourism, especially during the high season. KEY WORDS: tourism carrying capacity, indicators, infrastructure, sustainable tourism, overtourism, Soča Valley, Karst Plateau Turistična nosilna zmogljivost občin Tolmin, Kobarid in Komen POVZETEK: Raziskali smo turistično nosilnost v občinah Tolmin, Kobarid in Komen. Ugotovili smo, da je najbolj problematična infrastrukturna in gospodarska nosilnost, saj je večina kazalnikov preseženih že v poletni sezoni. Najbolj ugodna je prostorsko-ekološka nosilnost, kjer ni bil presežen noben od prouče- vanih kazalnikov. Rezultatov ocene nosilne zmogljivosti za turizem v teh občinah ne bi smeli uporabljati kot orodje za strogo omejevanje turističnega razvoja, temveč kot strokovna priporočila za trajnostni razvoj turizma. Infrastrukturnih zmogljivosti ne moremo povečati na kratek rok, saj to zahteva velike finančne vložke, ki jih občine ne morejo zagotoviti tako hitro. Potrebujemo strategijo razvoja turizma, ki bi poleg vseh potrebnih izboljšav celovito obravnavala težave, s katerimi se soočajo občine zaradi prekomernega turizma, zlasti v visoki turistični sezoni. KLJUČNE BESEDE: turistična nosilna zmogljivost, indikatorji, infrastruktura, trajnostni turizem, prekomerni turizem, Dolina Soče, Kras The article was submitted for publication on January 6th, 2022. Uredništvo je prejelo prispevek 6. januarja 2022. 90 1 University of Primorska, Faculty of Tourism Studies – Turistica, Portorož, Slovenia igor.jurincic@fts.upr.si 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 90 1 Introduction The first studies undertaken on carrying capacity date back to the 1960s. The carrying capacity of an area means the maximum number of people, plants and animals in a given area that can live undisturbed nat- urally, and which can be sustained in such conditions without reducing the carrying capacity of the environment in the future (Butler 2020). The number of people who can coexist in a sustainable and long-term basis with the environment is therefore defined, without deteriorating the quality of the environment and all its other inhabitants with their presence. Carrying capacity in tourism means the greatest number of visitors that a tourist destination can accom- modate without creating irreversible negative effects on the environment or the local community, while tourist satisfaction remains unchanged (World Tourism Organization 1996). When analysing the carrying capacity, we are faced with the question as to what extent a certain impact continues to be acceptable and how to properly plan for further development so that it remains sustain- able and the carrying capacity of an area is not exceeded. If we do not take into account the carrying capacity of the environment, it means that we have exceeded the permissible capacity limits which, in nature, means a sustainable condition, where nature, despite all the pressures, can renew itself (Mavri 2018a). The assessment of carrying capacity is a method used to determine the effects of tourism on the envi- ronment and relative spaces where we study and assess the impact of interventions in a given area. It is an important part of spatial planning in tourism and represents one of the most important tools in sustain- able tourism (Jovičić and Dragin 2008; Jurinčič 2009). The method used in assessing carrying capacity, as we know it today, is more dynamic than in the past. The role of the method has changed, as the purpose is not to create limitations when defining the capacity limit at a single point, but rather a tool through which we can constantly monitor and assess the development in order to use the results as a basis for further man- agement and planning (Coccossis, Mexa and Collovini 2002; Jurinčič 2005). Regarding the type of carrying capacity, there are several different divisions which are otherwise quite similar. The World Tourism Organization divides the carrying capacity into three types, namely envi- ronmental, socio-cultural and psychological (Jovičić and Dragin 2008). Some authors cite a division where there are four types of carrying capacity, namely (World Tourism Organization 1998): • the environmental carrying capacity which is based on physical and biological factors of selected species without any disturbances, • the socio-cultural carrying capacity is determined by assessing any unacceptable impact felt by the local community or by restrictions related to the availability of human resources, • the psychological carrying capacity refers to an acceptable limit of visitor numbers without a decrease in the quality and satisfaction of the experience which differs depending on the type of tourism and the type of activity, • the infrastructure carrying capacity is determined by the size of the tourist destination’s infrastructure, such as the number of rooms as well as municipal and road infrastructure capacity. This is the most sta- ble in the long term as the infrastructure does not change at a fast rate. Nature conservation areas in the USA were among the first tourist areas where the carrying capacity method was used to manage tourism (Manning 1999). They were followed by other nature conservation areas in Europe (Mandić and Marković Vukadin 2021) and also in Slovenia (Jurinčič and Balažič 2011; Mavri 2018a; 2018b; Jurinčič 2020). According to the method designed by Priority Actions Programme, Regional Activity Centre (1997) with its relative upgrades, carrying capacity analyses for beaches in the Mediterranean were undertaken for Croatia (Klarić et al. 2003; Grofelnik 2020), Slovenia (Jurinčič 2005, 2009), Greece (Tselentis, Prokopiou and Toanoglou 2006; Tselentis et al. 2006; Prokopiou, Tselentis and Bousbouras 2008), Portugal (Zacarias, Williams and Newton 2011), Spain (Baños Castiñeira and Viñals Blasco 2020), Italy (Corbau et al. 2019) and Montenegro (Klarić and Marković 2013). In the UNESCO heritage destination of the Dolomites in Italy, where they are dealing with the nega- tive effects of overtourism, they have found that the use of technology that enables the monitoring and measurement of overtourism a useful tool, where they could promote an alternative offer for tourists in the vicinity of a crowded main attraction (Bertocchi, Camatti and van der Borg 2021). The importance of mobile applications for directing and regulating sustainable visits to lesser-known tourist attractions was also highlighted by Jurinčič et al. (2013) and Cvetković et al. (2016). After analysing the carrying capac- ity, they found that the current situation allows a maximum of 4000 visitors to the historic city centre of Acta geographica Slovenica, 62-1, 2022 91 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 91 Igor Jurinčič, Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen Dubrovnik at any one time (Camatti et al. 2020). In the Škocjan Caves Park, which is famous for its excep- tional natural beauty, they found (Jurinčič 2020) that 300 visitors could be accommodated in the cave at any one time, or a total of 1800 visitors a day. Total carrying capacity, according to the adapted United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) method- ology and given the particularities of the destination in question and the use of a smaller number of key carrying capacity indicators, has been reviewed several times in Slovenia at municipality level by Jurinčič and his col- leagues. A study of the carrying capacity for the area of the Idrija municipality was undertaken to prepare a tourism marketing strategy there (Ravnikar et al. 2009), and for the Metlika municipality in order to plan the development of tourism along the Kolpa River (Jurinčič 2006) while the municipality of Bled was stud- ied for research purposes (Golob 2011). An important advantage of such an integrated approach is that it offers a combination of environmental, social and economic aspects of the carrying capacity to provide a total car- rying capacity for each municipality and region. Such cases are rarely found in relative literature. Another advantage of comprehensive carrying capacity analyses is that it also helps to determine carrying capacity thresh- olds, despite the fact that we consider and compare different indicators. Although these are subjective estimations of the value of each indicator on a scale of 1–9, they are based on verifiable quantitative data. The aim of this paper is to answer the question as to whether the carrying capacity for tourism has already been exceeded in the areas of the municipalities of Kobarid, Tolmin and Komen as tourism has increased in these areas significantly over the last decade. 2 Methods The municipalities of Tolmin and Kobarid in the Upper Soča Valley region and the municipality of Komen in the Karst region are rural municipalities of Slovenia located in the west of the country along the Italian border. The economy is based mainly on industry while tourism has grown extremely rapidly over the last ten years. The Upper Soča Valley and Karst are becoming one of the most important tourist destinations for active holidays in Slovenia. Most of the municipalities of Tolmin and Kobarid are a part of the Triglav National Park and are designated protected areas of Natura 2000. 98% of the Komen municipality is clas- sified as being in the Natura 2000 area. Due to their many natural and cultural attractions, they are proving to be of interest for visitors who are looking for breaks in a clean and peaceful environment which is rich in cultural heritage and offers excellent culinary experiences. The success of tourism in the long term will only be ensured by maintaining good quality tourist-based amenities and other attractive offers. Based on our experience in carrying capacity analysis for several other municipalities in Slovenia (Jurinčič 2005; Jurinčič 2006; Ravnikar et al. 2009; Golob 2011), we have selected and here discuss nine indicators in more detail for the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen. We assume these indicators play an important role and will consequently provide us with the best overall assessment of the carrying capacity of each municipality for tourism. We have classified them into three different groups of indicators. Among the spatial-environmental indicators, we have selected: • surface water quality of the Soča river basin in the Tolmin and Kobarid municipalities and Natura 2000 in the municipality of Komen, • waste collection and treatment and • the supply and consumption of potable water. Among the infrastructure indicators, we selected: • the number of parking spaces, • the length of renovated local and national roads, and also cycle trails. Among the economic indicators, we have selected: • the number of nights stayed, • the number of tourists, and • the number of accommodation facilities. The individual indicator was assessed by allocating a numerical value according to the predefined car- rying capacity framework. As a criterion for easier display, we adopted values on a scale from 1 to 9, where values between 1.0–2.9 mean that the indicator shows a lower level of utilisation of development poten- tial (unused), values from 3.0–5.9 mean that the indicator shows a higher level of utilisation of development potential and does not exceed the carrying capacity (not exceeded), and values between 6.0–9.0 mean that the carrying capacity estimate has been exceeded (exceeded). 92 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 92 The assessment of the carrying capacity for each indicator is based on real data, but we are aware that its numerical representation is somewhat subjective. The carrying capacity of surface water quality of the Soča and Nadiža rivers was assessed on the basis of continuous monitoring of bathing waters of the ARSO. Natura 2000 areas were assessed in terms of biodiversity conservation and the level of awareness of both tourists and the local population about its importance. The waste collection and treatment system was assessed according to the trend of the movement of collected and disposed waste and deemed to exceed the car- rying capacity when the amount of disposed waste increases and the proportion of selectively collected waste does not increase. The supply of potable water exceeds the carrying capacity when the potable water becomes scarce and austerity measures are required. Parking spaces exceed the carrying capacity when basically there are not enough of them. The length of renovated local and national roads is exceeded when traffic safety is threatened and traffic flow is reduced leading to forms of congestion. Cycling trails exceed the carrying capacity when there are not enough of them and when they are not considered safe enough or properly indicated. Economic indicators, however, are exceeded when there is a shortage of beds and it is necessary to redirect guests to other destinations. Table 1 shows the estimated numerical value of the indicators (1–9), the assessment of the carrying capacity of the indicators (unused, not exceeded and exceeded) and the proposals for increasing the car- rying capacity of the destination (municipality). Data for the assessment of each indicator were taken from available databases for the period 2011–2020 (Environmental atlas of Slovenia, Spatial information sys- tems of municipalities (PISO), municipal development plans, Slovenian Infrastructure Agency and Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia) and from the information obtained through personal com- munications with tourism managers in the municipalities in question, where they highlighted trends in tourism and problems which are generally similar in nature for all three municipalities. Below, we have justified a certain value of the carrying capacity for each indicator. In order to improve the exceeded car- rying capacity in the future or to prevent exceeding the carrying capacity at indicators that have not yet been exceeded, we have developed proposals to increase the carrying capacity in question. 3 Assessment of the carrying capacity for tourism in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen In assessing the carrying capacity for tourism in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen, we have selected and here discuss nine indicators for which we argue they play an important role and will therefore provide us with the best overall assessment of the carrying capacity of each municipality for tourism. We assessed that the best indicator in the group of spatial-ecological indicators was the surface water quality of the Soča river basin. On the basis of favourable results derived from extensive analyses and con- tinuous monitoring undertaken by the Institute for Waters of the Republic of Slovenia, we assessed its current status as ‘unused’ giving the municipality of Tolmin a value of 3. Based on the bathing water data provid- ed by the Slovenian Environment Agency, it was found that the river Nadiža, in the Kobarid municipality, is the river most below the threshold of carrying capacity and we therefore gave this one a value of 2. The carrying capacity of the water quality is unused but we do not want to load this indicator any further. In order to maintain surface water quality adequately in the Soča and Nadiža river basins, it is necessary to continue to build appropriate wastewater discharge and treatment systems in Tolmin and Kobarid, to limit the use of the coastal zone, to regulate the discharge of all storm water as well as to prevent all illegal dis- charges and to take appropriate care of the river itself and the area along it with various actions to be undertaken by local residents. Due to the absence of surface water on the Karst, protected natural areas of Natura 2000 were selected in the Komen municipality. The preserved karst nature of the landscape is one of the main motives for visiting the entire Karst region. When examining the indicator for the protected natural area of Natura 2000 in Komen, we found that this indicator has not been exceeded. Numerous projects in the field of biodiversity experience, education, workshops and festivals have been undertaken, or are in the process of being undertaken, which shows that the attitude of local residents towards protecting the nat- ural environment is positive (with the renovation of ponds, regulating paths, with a planned establishment of a Geopark with an information and education centre). The number of tourism providers included in Slovenian Tourism’s Green Scheme, - Slovenia Green, is also on the increase. Acta geographica Slovenica, 62-1, 2022 93 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 93 Igor Jurinčič, Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen 94 Ta ble 1: A sse ssm en t o f c arr yin g c ap ac ity in dic ato rs for th e T olm in, Ko ba rid an d K om en m un ici pa liti es . Ty pe an d s ele cte d i nd ica to rs Es tim ate d i nd ica to r v alu e a nd CC ra tin g Pro po sa ls to in cre as e t he ca rry ing ca pa cit y Sp ati al- en vir on m en tal Qu ali ty of su rfa ce w ate rs To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : c on str uc tio n o f t rea tm en t p lan ts; in cre as e c on tro l o f p oll ut an ts, ac tiv itie s i n t he ar ea an d w ate r q ua lit y; in th e S oč a r ive r b as in/ pr ev en tio n o f il leg al dis ch arg es ; c lea nin g c am pa ign s; rai se vi sit or aw are ne ss of th e v uln era bil ity of th e a rea . Na tu ra 20 00 Ko m en : e sta bli sh m en t o f t he Ka rst G eo pa rk. Co lle cti on an d t rea tm en t To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : fo llo w wa ste m an ag em en t t ren ds ; a de qu ate ly inf or m lo ca l re sid en ts an d t ou ris ts ab ou t w as te so rti ng of wa ste (st ick ers , b roc hu res an d w hit eb oa rd s - al so in fo rei gn la ng ua ge s); to pr ov ide m ore w as te bin s i n t ho se ar ea s w he re th ere ar e a g rea ter nu m be r o f t ou ris ts an d a t m as s e ve nt s; to em pt y w as te bin s r eg ula rly . To lm in, Ko ba rid : to in cre as e c on tro ls on ill eg al ca m pin g. Su pp ly an d c on su m pt ion To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : ra ise aw are ne ss an d i nf or m th e l oc al po pu lat ion an d v isi to rs ab ou t t he vu lne rab ilit y o f w ate r r es ou rce s; of po tab le wa ter en co ur ag e t he co lle cti on of ra inw ate r; u se tr ea ted w ate r f rom tr ea tm en t p lan ts for irr iga tio n, cle an ing ro ad s e tc. ; p rom ot e g ree n bu sin es s a nd se lf- su pp ly of po tab le wa ter ; c on tro l th e c on su m pt ion an d q ua lit y o f p ot ab le wa ter . Inf ras tru ctu re Pa rki ng sp ac es To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : to pr ov ide in for m ati on bo ard s; co ns tru ct ad dit ion al pa rki ng lo ts; in tro du ce pa rki ng fe es or tim e- lim ite d fre e p ark ing ; p rov ide pa rki ng lo ts for la rg er ve hic les ; p rom ot e s us tai na ble fo rm s o f t ran sp or t a nd pu bli c t ran sp or t; e sta bli sh ap pr op ria te sig na ge ; p rov ide st ew ard s a t p lan ne d e ve nt s. To lm in 3 u nu se d Ko ba rid : 2 u nu se d Ko m en : 5 n ot ex ce ed ed To lm in: 9 e xc ee de d Ko ba rid : 9 e xc ee de d Ko m en : 8 e xc ee de d To lm in: 5 n ot ex ce ed ed Ko ba rid : 5 n ot ex ce ed ed Ko m en : 5 n ot ex ce ed ed To lm in: 5 n ot ex ce ed ed Ko ba rid : 5 n ot ex ce ed ed Ko m en : 4 n ot ex ce ed ed 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 94 Acta geographica Slovenica, 62-1, 2022 95 Le ng th of re no va ted lo ca l To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : to re no va te roa ds fa ste r; p ut w arn ing si gn s a t d an ge rou s s ec tio ns an d e sta bli sh ro ad sh ari ng (i nc lud ing an d n ati on al roa ds cy cli sts ); inc rea se tr aff ic sa fet y. Cy cli ng tr ail s To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : e xp an d c yc lin g t rai ls; pr ov ide ad eq ua te sig na llin g; reg ula te inf ras tru ctu re pr op erl y i n r es pe ct of cy cli ng tra ils (p rov ide pa rki ng sp ac es fo r b icy cle s, bic yc le se rv ice s, bic yc le- fri en dly ac co m m od ati on an d i nc rea se av ail ab ilit y o f p ub lic tra ns po rt for bi cy cle s); ex plo it t he ex ce pt ion al po ten tia l fo r c yc lin g t ou ris m . Ec on om y Th e n um be r o f n igh ts To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : in cre as e t he qu ali ty of ex ist ing ca pa cit ies an d c on se qu en tly in cre as e t he pr ice s a nd m an ag e t ou ris t vis its ; o ffe r n ew se rv ice s i n o rd er to de se as on ali se to ur ist vi sit s; ex ten d t he le ng th of to ur ist st ay s o ut sid e t he se as on ; c on tro l th e reg ist rat ion of gu es ts an d p ay m en ts for us ing ge ne ral in fra str uc tu re se rv ice s. To lm in, Ko ba rid : p rev en t il leg al ca m pin g. Th e n um be r o f t ou ris ts To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : e xp an d e xis tin g g en era l a nd to ur ist in fra str uc tu re; co nt rol th e r eg ist rat ion of gu es ts an d p ay m en ts for us ing ge ne ral in fra str uc tu re se rv ice s; inc rea se th e q ua lit y o f s er vic es an d t he co ns eq ue nt in cre as e i n p ric es ; Es tab lis h a dm iss ion fe es fo r t ou ris t a ttr ac tio ns ; E xp an d o ffe rs ac ros s t he w ho le m un ici pa lit y. Th e n um be r o f a cc om m od ati on To lm in, Ko ba rid , K om en : p rov ide in ce nt ive s f or in ve sto rs to in ve st in ad dit ion al ac co m m od ati on fa cil itie s ( sm all er ho tel s, fac ilit ies dis pe rse d h ot els , g lam pin g, to ur ist fa rm s a nd ec o a cc om m od ati on ); rai se th e q ua lit y a nd pr ice s o f s er vic es to m atc h d em an d wi th av ail ab le fac ilit ies . To lm in: 7 e xc ee de d Ko ba rid : 6 e xc ee de d Ko m en : 7 e xc ee de d To lm in: 6 e xc ee de d Ko ba rid : 8 e xc ee de d Ko m en : 6 e xc ee de d To lm in: 6 e xc ee de d Ko ba rid : 7 e xc ee de d Ko m en : 8 e xc ee de d To lm in: 9 e xc ee de d Ko ba rid : 9 e xc ee de d Ko m en : 7 e xc ee de d To lm in: 8 e xc ee de d Ko ba rid : 7 e xc ee de d Ko m en : 7 e xc ee de d 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 95 Igor Jurinčič, Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen When examining the indicator for waste collection and treatment, we found that the Tolmin munic- ipality was exemplary in this area. The amount of waste increased by 45% in the period 2012–2019, although it decreased in 2020, but at the expense of fewer tourist visits due to the Covid-19 pandemic, so its car- rying capacity was allocated a value of 5. Therefore, the amount of waste in 2019 was the highest it has been in the last ten years at 462 kg/inhabitant, according to the data on collected waste 2011–2020 pro- vided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (Table 2). As the volume of waste also increases in relation to the increase in the number of tourists, raising awareness must be targeted, not only at the local population but also at tourists. We have found that the collection and treatment of waste in the municipality of Kobarid is exemplary. As the number of overnight stays made by tourists in Kobarid increases, the amount of collected waste will also rise. Waste management will also improve due to ade- quate information on the number of tourists at a certain destination, so the recording and reporting of this information must be regulated. According to the data obtained, the indicator for the collection and treatment of waste was assessed to have a value of 5 as the indicator has not been exceeded. Although the amount of waste has been increasing in recent years, the municipality is following trends in the field of waste collection and treatment, and is also raising awareness of trends and waste collection among the local population and tourists. For the municipality of Komen, in the group relating to spatial-ecological indicators, the indicator for the collection and waste treatment was assessed as best, with a score of 4, so consequently it did not exceed its margin. We noticed that the increased number of nights and events did not affect this indicator which we would like to see continue in the future. In order to maintain this factor, we would like to see greater promotion of Komen as a green destination, with information material published in foreign languages etc. The indicator for potable water supply and consumption in all three municipalities was assessed as a five, an indicator showing that it has not been exceeded. This is justified by the fact that there is enough water in these municipalities, and the supply provided by Tolmin’s public services for Tolmin and Kobarid and the Karst water supply in Komen are also considered adequate. Water consumption in Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen is fairly stable, which is encouraging (Hvala 2018; Baša 2020; Volarič 2020). According to the data provided by Tolmin’s public services for the years 2014–2019 for the municipality of Tolmin, the vol- ume of water sold increased by 0.8%, and in Kobarid by 8.5%. According to the data provided by the Sežana Karst Water Board for the period 2008–2018 covering the municipality of Komen, the volume of water sold increased by 0.5%. As the number of overnight stays increases, the consumption of potable water will also increase, so we need to handle water supplies as carefully as possible in the future, as there are no nat- ural water collection areas on the Karst, and groundwater sources are very vulnerable. It is necessary to act sustainably and to reduce water consumption per capita and per tourist overnight stays with appro- priate measures. We propose to raise awareness among the local population and tourists about the impact of climate change on the supply of potable water and to fight against climate change. It is important to pro- mote the use of recycled water and the collection of rainwater in order to avoid a shortage of potable water in the future. 96 Table 2: Municipal waste generated, collected and disposed of (kg per capita) in Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen from 2011 to 2020. Year Municipal waste generated Municipal waste collected by public Municipal Waste Disposed (kg per capita) collection (kg per capita) (kg per capita) Tolmin Kobarid Komen Tolmin Kobarid Komen Tolmin Kobarid Komen 2011 – – – 315 346 227 210 224 116 2012 317 346 246 282 311 211 163 178 105 2013 368 399 404 274 305 310 84 16 132 2014 399 427 340 288 316 229 77 83 84 2015 430 454 359 295 318 224 181 263 76 2016 402 455 376 273 326 292 – – – 2017 442 498 367 303 359 227 0 – 11 2018 449 505 374 315 371 240 14 18 11 2019 462 537 382 311 386 231 66 0 3 2020 318 398 364 294 369 341 33 8 2 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 96 The parking space indicator was assessed to have been an exceeded indicator in all three municipal- ities. Most parking spaces in the Tolmin municipality are allocated for shops such as Hofer, Eurospin and Mercator. In 2018, 593 parking spaces were available in Tolmin (Hvala 2018). In addition to the larger towns in the municipality (Tolmin, Most na Soči and Podbrdo), there is a shortage of parking spaces at the most visited spots in the municipality (Tolmin Gorge and the Church of the Holy Spirit in Javorca). It was con- cluded that this problem needs to be addressed from a broad perspective as it is linked to the construction of the by-pass and is the result of weak infrastructure for cyclists and pedestrians. The indicator for park- ing spaces in Tolmin and Kobarid was assessed to have a value of 9 and therefore an exceeded indicator. There are not enough parking spaces in Kobarid during the tourist season. There were 268 recorded park- ing spaces provided in Kobarid in 2020 (Volarič 2020). According to the inter-municipal chief administrator, the greatest shortage of parking spaces were noted in Kobarid and at the more popular tourist destina- tions throughout the municipality (accessible points to the bathing areas along the Nadiža and the Soča rivers). Since 2016, Hop-On Hop-Off bus transport has been organised in the municipality of Kobarid, connecting the countryside, remote tourist points, bathing areas along the Nadiža and starting points for hiking and cycle routes to the heart of Kobarid. In the municipality of Tolmin there is a bus service to the Tolmin Gorge and to the Church of the Holy Spirit in Javorca, which has somewhat relieved road con- gestion and the pressure on parking spaces. Looking forwards, action will have to be taken to tackle this problem, as some visitors park in private parking spaces and privately owned land as well as along road- sides, where passage is already very limited (Figure 1). The indicator for parking spaces for the municipality of Komen was assessed to have a value of 8 and is therefore an exceeded indicator, as we believe that there are not enough parking spaces with respect to its needs. We assessed the indicator for the length of renovated local and state roads to have a value 8. Due to the high construction costs associated with the complexity of the terrain, renovation works in the Tolmin Acta geographica Slovenica, 62-1, 2022 97 Figure 1: Crowded parking area at the entrance to the Tolmin Gorge in July 2019. N E vA B LA ZE TI Č (© p R IM O R S K E N O v IC E ) 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 97 Igor Jurinčič, Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen area are slow. Road infrastructure needs to be improved, and as much as possible should be done to improve the safety of all road users. The indicator for the length of renovated local and state roads for the munic- ipality of Kobarid was deemed to have a value of 7, therefore the indicator has been exceeded. Road infrastructure in the Kobarid area is slowly improving, and it should continue to improve. In future, dan- gerous road sections should be properly regulated in order to increase safety. The indicator for the length of renovated local and state roads was also assessed to have a value of 7 for the municipality of Komen. Reconstruction works on local and state roads were mostly undertaken in the years before 2014, and not one local road has been renovated since then, regardless of the fact that there are many dangerous, nar- row sections through certain villages, in Komen, Gorjansko, Štanjel, Ivanji Grad, Škrbina and Brje pri Komnu for example. For the municipalities of Tolmin and Kobarid, the indicator for cycle trails was assessed to have a value of 9, and therefore it has an exceeded indicator, because there are insufficient or hardly any designated cycle trails. In both municipalities, cyclists mainly use the existing road network. The cycle trail was allo- cated an indicator value of 7 for the municipality of Komen as there are no designated cycle trails in the municipality, and the accompanying infrastructure network is also insufficient. In addition to a better net- work of cycle trails, the system for automated bike rental »Bike Sharing on the Karst« within the framework of the Interreg project, CROSSMOBY (Figure 2), free bus transport of bicycles in the summer from Slovenian Istria to Karst on the »KoloBus« and on the route between Štanjel and Devin, have also contributed to a bet- ter indicator value for the municipality of Komen compared to those of Tolmin and Kobarid. In all three municipalities, it is necessary to expand the existing cycle trails and arrange appropriate signage and infra- structure (bicycle parking spaces, bicycle service, cyclist-friendly accommodation, adjusted offers and an increased availability of public transport). It is necessary to make better use of the exceptional potential for cycle tourism, which all three municipalities have owing to their rich natural and cultural heritage. 98 Figure 2: Electric bicycle rental system in Štanjel. R R C K O p E R /IN TE R R E G IT -S I C R O S S M O B Y 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 98 Regarding economic indicators, i.e. the number of tourists, the number of overnight stays and the num- ber of accommodation facilities according to the 2011–2020 data provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (Tables 3–5), we found that all indicators are exceeded at the peak of the summer season in all three municipalities. The number of overnight stays increased significantly in the period 2011–2019, namely in the municipalities of Kobarid by 108%, Tolmin by 269% and Komen by 149%. During the same period, the number of overnight stays in Slovenia increased by 51%. In the period 2011–2019, the number of beds increased in Kobarid by 81%, in Tolmin by 398% and in Komen by 75%. In all three municipalities, there is a shortage of accommodation facilities during the summer season. All three des- tinations generally offer accommodation with smaller capacities: in the municipalities of Tolmin and Komen there are private rooms and apartments, and in Kobarid there are also campsites. Everywhere, however, there is a shortage of smaller hotels to accommodate larger coach parties who arrive by bus to their des- tination and have to be directed to other municipalities. It is therefore necessary to encourage investors to invest in additional accommodation facilities to establish a structural balance (smaller hotels, dispersed hotels, glamping, tourist farms and eco- accommodations). Improved quality and consequently higher prices can contribute to the management of mass tourism. It is necessary to create new tourist products in order to deseasonalise tourism and to prolong the length of stay of tourists outside the season. If registration was better controlled in respect of guests and payment for the use of general infrastructure services and if illegal camping was prevented, especially in the municipalities of Tolmin and Kobarid, more efficient destination management would be possible. With the aid of nine selected indicators, we found that the best assessment of the carrying capacity was given for spatial and ecological indicators: the quality of surface water in the Soča river basin, in the case of the Posočje municipalities of Tolmin and Kobarid, and the protected natural areas in the case of the Karst municipality of Komen, with its collection and treatment of waste and the supply and consumption of potable water. Infrastructure indicators have proved to be the weakest aspect with all the groups, so municipalities will need to ensure there is a rapid improvement of the infrastructure if they want to continue to devel- op as successful and sustainable tourist destinations. Improvements are needed both in the field of tourism infrastructure and general infrastructure. All three indicators, i.e. parking spaces, the length of renovated local and state roads and cycle trails were assessed as having exceeded their margins. In addition to expand- ing and providing adequate infrastructure, municipalities can also improve when it comes to learning from Acta geographica Slovenica, 62-1, 2022 99 Table 3: Number of beds in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen from 2011 to 2020. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Kobarid 1968 2045 1986 2050 2303 2337 2376 – 3564 4116 Tolmin 1427 1491 1788 1892 1869 1980 2279 – 7106 4087 Komen 167 175 151 175 165 142 190 – 293 – Table 4: Number of tourists in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen from 2011 to 2020. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Kobarid 38,368 37,744 37,051 33,137 42,248 44,227 54,487 67,698 79,915 57,513 Tolmin 14,225 15,773 20,723 21,521 25,939 29,034 36,093 56,446 61,809 44,142 Komen 1660 1585 1675 2027 2146 2326 3565 4787 5220 – Table 5: Number of overnight stays in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen from 2011 to 2020. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Kobarid 97,350 99,249 97,457 83,964 103,731 110,909 141,295 186,187 202,297 158,011 Tolmin 43,652 48,719 59,694 65,601 75,653 80,954 101,039 157,852 161,160 119,228 Komen 4439 4130 5435 4882 4582 4748 6515 10,968 11,051 – 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 99 Igor Jurinčič, Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen 100 other cases of good practice at home and abroad in the area of introducing sustainable mobility. It is also necessary to monitor spatial-ecological indicators that have not exceeded margins and to maintain their favourable status and to make even better use of the potential of the available unused surface water in the Soča River basin. 4 Discussion This research represents an important contribution to testing the comprehensive assessment method on the carrying capacity for tourism. It differs from partial assessments of carrying capacity, where spatial- environmental or socio-cultural carrying capacities for beaches (Tselentis, Prokopiou and Toanoglou 2006; Tselentis et al. 2006; Zacarias et al. 2011; Corbau et al. 2019) and destinations (Manning 1999; Mavri 2018a, 2018b; Jurinčič 2020) of natural and cultural heritage were analysed (Bertocchi et al. 2020; Camati et al. 2020; Bertocchi, Camatti and van der Borg 2021). In our case, in contrast to the methodology designed by UNEP and World Tourism Organization (Klarić et al. 2003) and the EU (Coccossis, Mexa and Collovini 2002) we divided the group of spatial-environmental indicators into two groups, namely spatial-environmental and infrastructural, covering the general infrastructure. We found that infrastructure indicators play a key role in assessing the carrying capacity for tourism. Also, in other tourist-developed countries (Klarić et al. 2003; Klarič and Marković 2013), it is evident that infrastructure indicators are the most critical group in further ensuring the sustainable development of tourism. When Soča Valley acquired the Gold Label award as a Slovenia Green Destination, an area which includes the municipalities of Tolmin and Kobarid, and Karst–Brkini, which also includes the municipality of Komen, the results were similar. Otherwise, rat- ings were lowest in the field of infrastructure (7 out of 10), which enables effective protection of the environment, such as waste and wastewater management, sustainable mobility and reduction of fossil fuels (ORA 2021). The implementation of the proposed measures to increase the carrying capacity of infrastructure indicators, which represent the weakest link, and to evaluate their effectiveness on an ongoing basis is essen- 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Surface water Tolmin Kobarid Komen Accomodation Tourists Overnight stays Biking tracks Roads Parking sites Drinking water Waste Exceeded Treshold Unused Figure 3: Carrying capacity of the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen. 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 100 tial for sustainable tourism development. Otherwise, the destinations in question will lose their gold labels awarded by the Slovenian Tourist Board’s Green Scheme, which addresses all the pillars of sustainable tourism development and has an important promotional effect for the destinations of the Soča Valley and Karst–Brkini (Razpotnik Visković 2020). Our findings regarding the exceeded carrying capacity of infrastructure and economic indicators were taken into account when developing new sustainable tourism development strategies for the municipal- ities of Tolmin and Kobarid within the destination area of the Soča Valley (Zupan et al. 2020) and for the municipality of Komen within the area of Kras-Brkini (Piciga, Prašnikar and Radić 2021). If conditions change and with appropriate strategic management, the determined carrying capacity can be increased or reduced by imprudent behaviour or inadequate tourist development. This can hap- pen in the future, for example, in the case of the potable water supply and consumption indicator, which currently has not exceeded its indicator in any of the municipalities in question. Water consumption in tourism is becoming one of the key indicators of the carrying capacity of tourist destinations. With the increase in the number of overnight stays, the consumption of potable water will also increase as tourists are high consumers of water. One of the accommodation providers in Tolmin record- ed a consumption of 398 litres of water per night (Hvala 2018), and an accommodation provider in the municipality of Kobarid reported 366 litres (Volarič 2020). Both are high and comparable to the water con- sumption at hotels in Slovenian Istria, where it averages 350 litres per night (Jurinčič and Bojnec 2009) and is significantly higher than the consumption of the local population, which in 2020, according to the data provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, amounted to 159 litres per person and has been fairly stable for the last ten years. Climate changes must also be taken into account, which are also reflected in problems with a potable water supply (Cigale 2007; Scott 2021). Therefore, it is necessary to take appropriate measures to reduce the water consumption of residents and tourists (Baños Castiñeira and Viñals Blasco 2020), which also applies to the municipalities of Kobarid, Tolmin and Komen. The method of using carrying capacity as a standard was very useful in practice when managing visits to natural and cultural heritage sites, and at municipal and regional level when preparing sustainable tourism development strategies. It also serves as an appropriate aid in adopting spatial planning strategies when locat- ing tourism infrastructure in an area. In future, we believe it shall be possible to upgrade the carrying capacity method for tourism by using big data to monitor tourist visits in real time, which is already used in some UNESCO heritage destinations, such as Venice, Dubrovnik and the Dolomites (Bertocchi et al. 2020; Camatti et al. 2020; Bertocchi, Camatti and van der Borg 2021). With the aid of modern communication technolo- gy, we can also obtain more accurate data on day visitors and their movements and behaviour at a given destination. In this way, we could solve the problem of researching the carrying capacity where there is a lack of data regarding unregistered guests and one-day visitors, which is also a burden on the infrastructure. The impact of the process of carrying capacity analysis on the local population, the tourist economy and the local administration is also very important. With their active involvement, this process can also educate and raise awareness of the importance of sustainable development. Sustainable development of tourism is possible in the long term only in cooperation with the local community, and it should be point- ed out that it is necessary to involve local residents at an early stage of development and spatial planning (Nared et al. 2015; Gabrovec et al. 2017). 5 Conclusion The carrying capacity method for tourism is an appropriate tool for promoting sustainable tourism and identifying limitations at a destination that must be taken into account in the context of further develop- ment. By carefully scrutinising individual indicators, we were able to determine whether their current carrying capacity had already been exceeded or not. When exploring the carrying capacity for tourism in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen, where tourism has increased significantly in the last decade, we found that the most problematic aspects are infrastructure and economic carrying capacity, and most factors have recorded excessive values dur- ing the summer season. The most favourable is the spatial-environmental carrying capacity, where no factor analysed had been exceeded. The number of overnight stays in these municipalities had increased to above average in the period 2011–2019, both in relation to the average growth for the entire area of Slovenia (51%) and by the type of Acta geographica Slovenica, 62-1, 2022 101 62-1_acta49-1.qxd 20.6.2022 10:43 Page 101 Igor Jurinčič, Tourism carrying capacity in the municipalities of Tolmin, Kobarid and Komen 102 tourist municipalities. The increase was 108% in the municipality of Kobarid, 269% in Tolmin, and 81% in the mountain municipalities. The growth of overnight stays in Komen (by 149%) also exceeds the aver- age growth in other municipalities (92%) to which it belongs (Figure 4). There has been a more pronounced increase in the number of overnight stays in all municipalities since 2015 (Cigale 2019). A record number of tourists who visited in the 2019 tourist season has highlighted the problem of over- tourism, but this can be solved with appropriate management and the participation of all stakeholders. With the unexpected growth in the number of tourists visiting, we found that the municipalities are not adequately prepared for the increased growth in the tourism sector. Therefore, on the basis of the carry- ing capacities identified for various individual indicators, we have proposed measures to increase their carrying capacity or to maintain it at a level where it does not exceed in the future. The results of the carrying capacity assessment for the municipalities in question for tourism should not be considered as a tool to severely restrict the development of tourism, but rather as an expert rec- ommendation that will lead the development of tourism, in some areas, to another more sustainable direction or will transform it appropriately. 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