.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o O Ü) O u 0) o fN < Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 4 / Vol. XX / 2014 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Barbara Ferk, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Urška Brodar, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Branka Tavčar Authors of Selected Topic: Eva Zver, Msc (Employment in the general government sector and public service activities - international comparison); Barbara Ferk, MSc (Population projections EUROPOP2013); Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2013); Valerija Korošec, PhD (Social progress index) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................16 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................18 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................22 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................24 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................26 Boxes Box 1: Real estate market - Q4 2013............................................................................................................. Box 2: (In)solvency.............................................................................................................................................. Box 3: Road and rail freight transport, Q4 2013.......................................................................................... Box 4: Slovenian merchandise market shares in 2013...................................................................................... Box 5: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the 2007-2013 programming period (as at 31 March 2014) ..........11 ..........12 ..........15 ..........21 ..............27 Selected topic Employment in the general government sector and public service activities - international comparison ..31 Population projections EUR0P0P2013.......................................................................................................................33 Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2013...............................................................................................................35 Social progress index......................................................................................................................................................36 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................39 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 6 May 2014. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight According to the spring forecasts by the IMF, European Commission and OECD, GDP growth in the euro area will total 1.2% this year and strengthen further in 2015. With restored confidence after cleaning up bank balance sheets and establishing the banking union, growth could even be higher. The downside risks are associated with very low inflation (as persistently low inflation could lead to an increase in the real burden of existing debt), an incomplete implementation of structural, fiscal and institutional reforms, high unemployment, as well as external shocks related to the current geopolitical developments in Ukraine and decelerated growth in the emerging market economies. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity declined in February (seasonally adjusted), also under the impact of the natural disaster, but they remained higher in year-on-year terms, except for turnover in retail trade. Despite February's decline, real merchandise exports were up significantly year-on-year in the first two months as a whole. After four months of growth, production volume in manufacturing fell somewhat in January and February but, as exports, it also exceeded slightly the level in the same period last year. Construction activity was by a third higher year-on-year after February's decline, the most notable strengthening being recorded in the segment of civil-engineering works. Practically stagnant since the middle of last year, turnover in retail trade remains down year-on-year. Growth in registered unemployment was interrupted in the past two months (seasonally adjusted). April's decline (-0.4%, seasonally adjusted) was mainly a result of an increased outflow from unemployment into employment. A total of 123,636 persons were unemployed at the end of April, 1.9% more than in the previous April. In the first four months of this year, slightly fewer people than in the same period of 2013 registered as unemployed, mainly as fewer persons lost work, but the number of first-time jobseekers was up, indicating that young people are facing increased difficulties in accessing the labour market. The total outflow from unemployment was somewhat higher, particularly as more people found jobs, also through inclusion in public works. The number of persons in employment has remained relatively unchanged since spring 2013. The average gross earnings rose again in February, but only due to growth in public corporations, as they remained unchanged in the private and general government sectors (seasonally adjusted). Price movements remained moderate in April. As typical for this month of the year, inflation (0.5%) was mainly impacted by seasonal factors, primarily higher prices of clothing and footwear and some services (together 0.6 percentage points). Year-on-year inflation stood at 0.4%, being lower than in the previous month and lower than inflation in the euro area. In the last quarter of 2013 cost competitiveness improved more notably again than, on average, in the euro area and the EU. The decline in unit labour costs accelerated due to higher growth in labour productivity and a continuation of modest nominal growth in labour costs. Slovenia thus remained in the group of euro area and EU countries with relatively more favourable cost competitiveness trends. Its relative position improved for the third year in a row but is still less favourable then before the crisis. The upturn after 2010 has mainly been accounted for by activities in the tradable sector. The share of non-performing loans in the banking system increased in February, but the creation of additional impairments and provisions remained low. The share of non-performing loans rose 0.7 percentage points, to 13.9% of the banking sector's total exposure. Their volume amounted to EUR 5.8 bn. After increasing at the end of the year, the creation of impairments and provisions eased substantially at the beginning of 2014, being lower than in the previous four years. The banks thus created EUR 19 m of additional impairments and provisions in February; in the first two months only around EUR 30 m. The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors declined again in March (EUR 71.4 m), but this year deleveraging is slowing. The decline was mostly a result of further corporate deleveraging and, to a lesser extent, government deleveraging. Continuing to deleverage abroad, the banks also continued to reduce liabilities to the ECB. According to data from the consolidated balance, the general government deficit in the first two months (EUR 448 m) was similar to that in the previous year. Expenditure was up 3.7%, revenue up 4.3% and the deficit up 1%. The higher revenue relative to the previous year is due to an increase in all main revenue categories except EU funds; social security contributions were up after a longer period of decline. The year-on-year increase in expenditure was mainly a result of higher expenditure on wages (8.3%) due to the disbursement of half of the third quarter of funds to eliminate disparities in basic wages. Social transfers were lower in year-on-year terms (down 0.8%) in most categories with the exception of those related to pensions (0.8%) and social security (7.1%). ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment According to short-term indicators and indicators of confidence, economic activity in the euro area increased in the first quarter and confidence data also suggest favourable movements in the months ahead. February recorded further growth in manufacturing production and construction output. Turnover in retail trade also increased. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro area dropped slightly in April after a year of growth, mainly due to deteriorated confidence in services and construction, but it remains above the long-term average. Confidence in industry and retail trade remained unchanged relative to March, while confidence among consumers picked up, mainly due to better expectations with regard to the economic situation and unemployment. In April the Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached the highest value in the last three years, primarily due to the strong growth of the manufacturing index. Among Slovenia's main trading partners, in April the index rose most notably in Germany; a strengthening of its economic activity is also indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index, the leading indicator for German economic activity, despite somewhat higher uncertainty related to foreign trade (the turmoil in Ukraine, slower growth in emerging market economies). Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity the euro area -Industrial production in manufacturing -----Construction put in place -----Turnover in retail trade in 110 f? 105 100 O äE 95 90 85 T3 C 80 ^TD 75 C O 70 00 65 V , , /i" \ 1........... i i i i \ i . L-L-i-r-^-"]........... \i' "^J /1 ! ^^\ ' nT.........r'Tyf 1...........1..........|...........| : \ :V : V' : : . : i "N .. : : 1 i i i i i ■ 4.........f........1..........i..........i...........i.................. / i i i i i i ./' ■ ..........i-..........i...........i..........i........... 1..........i........ 110 105 C ij 100 C .n 95 OJ > 90 [j 85 ■Ö 80 'iD 75 O 70 Si 65 c^^ c^^ Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. In their spring forecasts, the IMF, European Commission and OECD expect 1.2% GDP growth in the euro area this year, and somewhat stronger growth next year. According to the IMF, world GDP growth will average 3.6% this year and rise to 3.9% in 2015, which is more than last year (3.0%) and similar to the January forecast (0.1 percentage points less). Growth will continue to be mainly driven by emerging market economies, despite the expected slowdown in economic activity. Their economic activity will be boosted by increased exports to advanced countries, where this year economic growth will be strongest in the US and the UK. All three institutions predict 1.2% growth in the euro area this year, and 1.5% (IMF) and 1.7% growth (the Commission and OECD) next year, mainly due to the pick-up in private consumption and investment amid further growth in exports, which will contribute less than in the last few years due to increased growth in imports. All three institutions believe that growth could be higher than forecast, if confidence picks up, credit growth increases and financial fragmentation is reduced1 after a successful cleaning-up of bank balance sheets and the completion of the banking union. On the downside, the main risk is related to very low inflation, given that low inflation over a prolonged period could lead to an increase in the real burden of existing debt. Stalling or partial implementation of structural, fiscal and institutional reforms also remains one of the main risks to the forecast. Growth could also be negatively affected by high unemployment and external shocks related to current geopolitical developments in Ukraine and decelerated growth in the emerging market economies. Table 1: Comparison of GDP growth forecasts of international institutions for 2014 and 2015 2014 2015 IMF Apr 14 CONS Apr 14 EC May 14 OECD May 14 IMF Apr 14 CONS Apr 14 EC May 14 OECD May 14 EU 1.6 1.5 1.6 N/A. 1.8 1.8 2.0 N/A EMU 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 DE 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 IT 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 AT 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 FR 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 HR -0.6 -0.2 -0.6 N/A 0.4 1.1 0.7 N/A RUS 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.8 US 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.5 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2014), Consensus Forecasts (April 2014), European Economic Forecast Spring 2014 (May 2014), OECD Economic Outlook (May 2014). Note: N/A - not available. In the first quarter of 2014 the credit standards for euro area enterprises tightened less than in the past few quarters, while loan demand increased. According to the ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, a net percentage of 1% of banks reported a tightening of credit standards in the first quarter of 2014, compared with 2% in the final quarter of 2013.2 For the second quarter of 2014, euro area banks expect a net easing of credit standards for loans to enterprises. Demand for these loans, particularly loans for financing inventories and working capital, increased in the first quarter for the first time since mid-2011 and is 1 The fragmentation of financial markets, which has increased in the period since the beginning of the crisis, shows in the widening differences in access to finance across countries and various sectors of the economy. Particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, which are more dependent on bank loans, are experiencing difficulties in obtaining finance during the crisis. 2 For the first time since 2007, the tightening of credit standards was favourably impacted by higher expectations of banks regarding the economic recovery. expected to rise further in the second quarter of this year. Demand for household loans also rose and banks expect a further increase in the second quarter. Credit standards for households improved across all loan categories; for the second quarter, banks expect a slight tightening for housing loans and an easing for other loans. Figure 2: ECB survey on lending conditions in the euro area ^^m Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the past 3 m. (left axis) -Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the next 3 m. (left axis) -Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) -----Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) 7^ , 70 JS S ^^ £ ^^ "ö J= ^ J: The required yields of euro area government bonds continued to drop in April. The yields of both the countries with the highest credit ratings and the peripheral countries declined further in April. According to several international financial institutions, this is the result of improved expectations regarding the economic recovery and investors' expectations that the ECB will start buying euro area government bonds. Figure 3: Yield to maturity of ten-year government bonds Slovenia -Portugal ----Spain —"—Italy -----Ireland .................Germany o ra c O a <0 ■ÜÜ 1- Austria cy "0 60 50 40 30 1^10 !S 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 16 c;; -D JSs^ S is ^^ O £5 a a a Source: ECB. ^ ^ Source: Bloomberg"? Table 2: Money market interest rates and the exchange rates of national currencies against the EUR Interest rates average, in % change, in b. p. 2013 IV 13 III 14 IV 14 IV 14/III 14 IV 14/IV 13 3-month EURIBOR rate 0.220 0.209 0.305 0.330 2.4 12.1 3-month USD LIBOR rate 0.268 0.278 0.234 0.227 -0.7 -5.1 3-month CHF LIBOR rate 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.017 -0.4 -0.4 Exchange rates average change, in % 2013 IV 13 III 14 IV 14 IV 14/III 14 IV 14/IV 13 EUR/USD 1.328 1.303 1.382 1.381 -0.1 6.0 EUR/CHF 1.231 1.220 1.218 1.219 0.1 -0.1 EUR/GBP 0.849 0.851 0.832 0.825 -0.8 -3.0 EUR/JPY 129.66 127.54 141.48 141.62 0.1 11.0 Source: Euribor, ECB, calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Oil and non-energy commodity prices Oil average change, in % 2013 IV 13 III 14 IV 14 IV 14/III 14 IV 14/IV 13 Brent USD 108.56 102.25 107.48 107.76 0.3 5.4 Brent EUR 81.66 79.35 77.77 78.18 0.5 -1.5 Commodities change, in % 2013/2012 IV 14/III 14 IV 14/IV 13 Non-energy commoditites -1.2 1.6 -1.4 Food 1.1 4.4 1.5 Agricultural raw materials 1.4 2.0 7.7 Metals -4.2 -4.0 -13.4 0 Figure 4: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD/EUR exchange rate (right axis) 1D100 3 80 a =3 60 1.4 - 1.2 D 1.0 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Figure 5: Non-energy commodity prices in dollars 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 - Non-fuel commodities Food ■Agricultural raw materials - Industrial inputs Metals Source: IMF. The ECB's key interest rate remained unchanged in April. The ECB continues with its monetary policy and the key interest rates are expected to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. However, in view of low inflation in the euro area and deflationary pressures in some euro area countries, the ECB has not yet excluded the possibility of resorting to further, less conventional, measures3 to boost the economic recovery and limit the risk of deflation. 3 Such as purchasing euro area government bonds, providing additional liquidity by new long-term refinancing operations, halting the sterilisation of liquidity from government and private bond purchases under the Securities Market programme. 4 In the release of data on industrial production in manufacturing for February in the SI-STAT database, January's figure was revised downwards, Economic developments in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity declined in February (seasonally adjusted) under the impact of the natural disaster, but remained higher in year-on-year terms, except for turnover in retail trade. Despite February's decline, real merchandise exports were significantly higher year-on-year in the first two months as a whole. After four months of growth, production volume in manufacturing fell somewhat in January and February, but it was also slightly higher than in the same period of last year.4 After the decline in February, construction Figure 6: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports -Industrial production in manuf. -----Value of construction put in place — Turnover in retail trads 5^110 £= SE 100 ^ 90 5? Ji 80 Ii 70 T3 60 50 40 ■■■i...........-4...........4...........f 30 ^ ^ Source^SURS; ca^ulationslby IMAD. ^ Table 4: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2013 II 14/ I 13 II 14/ II 13 I-II 14/ I-II 13 Exports1 2.7 -3.0 3.6 4.8 -goods 2.2 -1.8 4.7 6.2 -services 5.0 -9.1 -1.7 -1.9 Imports1 -0.8 -1.8 5.1 3.9 -goods -1.2 -0.5 5.5 3.0 -services 1.6 -10.8 2.1 10.9 Industrial production -0.6 -0.62 -1.13 0.43 -manufacturing -1.2 -0.82 -1.23 0.53 Construction -value of construction put in place -2.6 -4.92 33.13 36.13 Real turnover in retail trade -3.7 -1.32 -1.13 -0.93 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -0.1 -1.42 0.23 1.03 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, 2seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. which changed the results (recalculations) of production movements in 2014 (in monthly and year-on-year terms). Corrections of the previous months' figures are otherwise common, but they usually have a smaller impact on the recalculations of movements. 140 1.8 120 1.6 40 20 activity was a third higher year-on-year, the most notable strengthening being recorded in the segment of civil-engineering works. Turnover in retail trade, practically stagnant since the middle of last year, remains down in year-on-year terms. Growth in real merchandise exports and imports5 was interrupted in February (seasonally adjusted), but expectations remain positive. With a decline in merchandise exports to both EU and non-EU countries, growth in merchandise exports was interrupted in February, in our estimation, which could also be partly related to the weather-related natural disaster. Data on business trends in export expectations and export orders otherwise show that in most of the main export industries exports are expected to resume growth in the coming months. According to the enterprises surveyed, insufficient foreign demand is gradually becoming a less important limiting factor for production. Expectations regarding economic growth in main trading partners are improving as well. Real merchandise imports also declined in February. In the first two months of this year real merchandise exports were up 7.5% on the same period of 2013, according to our estimate; imports were also slightly higher (0.5%). Figure 7: Real merchandise exports and expected exports in manufacturing industries -Merchandise exports -real (left axis) -Merchandise exports - expected (right axis) 120 iü115 !E !=105 f 85 1^80 75 40 30 -20 o -30^1 -40 -50 Source: SURS; calcualtions by IMAD. Nominal exports and imports of services6 declined in February (seasonally adjusted). Exports of services fell slightly again, this time mainly due to lower exports in transport, while exports of other services7 continued to 5 The estimate of real merchandise exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while real imports have been estimated on the basis of nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. 6 According to the balance of payments statistics. 7 When adjusting data for seasonal effects, we placed communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, grow. After strong growth in January, imports of services also dropped in February, particularly of transport and other business services. In the first two months of the year exports of services were down 1.9% year-on-year, while imports were up 10.9%. Figure 8: Trade in services - nominal -Exports of services -Imports of services E400 '^.350 ■200 o o ^ Source: BS; calcualtions by IMAD. After the increase at the end of last year, production volume in manufacturing (see footnote 4) declined somewhat at the beginning of 2014. The decline in February can, in our assessment, also be attributed to the ice storm, which practically paralysed the Slovenian production, particularly in the most affected areas (disruption of power supply, traffic jams). After increasing in the final Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing industries by technology intensity -----Low-technology industries —— Medium-low-technology industries ■:» 100 95 Medium-high-and high-technology industries 90 70 65 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. Together, they account for almost a fifth of services exports and nearly a third of services imports. ^450 300 250 20 10 0 95 -10^? = 90 110 105 85 80 75 Box 1: Real estate market - Q4 2013 The number of dwelling transactions continued to decline in 2013. According to SURS data, the number of all dwelling transactions (in newly built and existing flats and family houses) dropped further in the final quarter of 2013 after the sharp decline in the third quarter (original data). The number of transactions in 2013 (at 4,490) was almost 30% lower than in the previous year, and more than half lower than the peak in 2007. Transactions in all dwellings declined substantially in the second half of last year, most notably in existing flats, which account for the majority of dwellings sold. In 2013 their number was almost a third lower than in 2012. In 2013 dwelling prices declined for the second consecutive year. According to SURS data, dwelling prices rose slightly in the fourth quarter of 2013 after the sharp fall in the third quarter (orig.), but were still down in year-on-year terms. In 2013 overall they were 4.3% lower than in 2012 and 17.1% lower than the peak in 2008. The prices of new and existing dwellings declined by the same percentage in 2013 as a whole (4.3%), but they recorded different dynamics over the year. The prices of new dwellings, having dropped by a tenth in the third quarter due to the sale of a large number of flats from the bankruptcy estate of bankrupt companies, rose considerably in the final quarter (orig.). At the end of the year they were almost at the same level as at the end of 2012. Conversely, the prices of existing dwellings declined in the third and fourth quarters of 2013 (orig.), being down 2.9% from the final quarter of 2012 at the end of the year. Among them, the prices of existing flats in Ljubljana fell the most in 2013 as a whole (by a tenth), being more than a fifth lower than in 2008, while the prices of existing flats in the rest of Slovenia rose slightly (by 0.8%) after the decline in 2012, and were only 8.0% lower than in 2008. Figure 10: Transactions in existing and newly built flats Figure 11: Prices of existing and newly built flats -Transactions in existing flats ■ Transactions in newly-built flats 160 120 100 J= 60 ----Transactions in existing houses -Transactions in newly built houses - Prices in existing flats ■ Prices in newly-built flats ----Prices in existing houses -Prices in newly built houses : 100 != 95 90 85 80 a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IM AD. a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. quarter of 2013, production volume in industries of higher technology intensity declined in the first two months. Medium-low- and low-technology production remained almost unchanged from the end of 2013, seasonally adjusted. In the first two months the volume of manufacturing production was higher year-on-year, despite the contraction. It was up in most low-technology industries, most notably in the wood-processing and leather industries, yet mainly due to the base effect. Production continued to decline in the textile and furniture industries, which lag the most behind their levels in 2008 (by around 60%). Production was also up in all medium-low-technology industries, where the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products increased most notably relative to the same period last year, also as a result of more vigorous activity in the construction sector, according to our estimate. Production was also higher year-on-year in most industries of higher technology intensity, notably in the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment. Construction activity declined in February, but was higher than lastyear. The value of construction put in place fell by 4.9% in February (seasonally adjusted), but was up 33.1% on the same period last year due to previous months' growth. According to SURS data, the increase in February's activity was positively impacted by the cleanup after the ice storm that hit the country in early February (repair of the electricity network and other civil-engineering structures). With significant monthly fluctuations, activity picked up across all construction segments in the past few months; the least in the construction of dwellings, more notably in the construction of non-residential buildings and the most in civil engineering, which is related to the construction of municipal infrastructure co-financed with EU funds. 105 ;Ü 140 80 75 40 Box 2: (In)solvency Insolvency also remained a pressing issue in the first quarter. In the first three months of this year the number of insolvent business entities and the amount of their outstanding matured liabilities ceased to increase and delays in payment were shorter. The number of debtors totalled 6,714, and the total amount owed (of which 69.0% for over one year) rose to EUR 739 m. On average, 387 fewer legal entities had outstanding liabilities1 than in the same period of 2013. Their number fell most notably in manufacturing and construction, while increasing in the sectors of financial and insurance activities and accommodation and food service activities. The most legal entities with outstanding liabilities were in trade (20.1%), construction (19.9%), professional, scientific and technical activities (12.9%) and manufacturing (12.0%). Three quarters of legal entities with unpaid liabilities were micro enterprises,2 which accounted for more than half of all outstanding matured liabilities. Figure 12: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and the average daily amounts of outstanding matured liabilities, by quarter, Q1 2008- Q1 2014 ^■Average no. of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities (left axis) -Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, EUR m (right axis) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 D -Zn 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 800 700 600 500 E 400 '^i m J! 300 200 100 0 Figure 13: Average number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities, Q1 2010-Q1 2014 I Up to 3 months »From 3 months to 1 year »Over 1 year 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 a a Source: AJPES. a a a Source: AJPES. Table5: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, March 2014 By activity No. of legal entities with outst. matured liabilities Growth in % Average daily amount of outst. matured liabilities, in EUR '000 Growth in % Average daily amount of outst. mat. liab. per legal entity, in EUR '000 III 14/ III 13 I-III 14/ I-III 13 III 14/ III 13 I-III 14/ I-III 13 C Manufacturing 815 -15,1 -10,9 87.878 -22,3 -14,5 108 F Constrution 1.303 -18,7 -10,5 165.996 -5,4 -2,2 127 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1.358 -8,1 -5,5 77.501 -33,6 -32,1 57 H Transportation and storage 355 -4,8 -6,4 28.268 0,9 10,7 80 I Accommodation and food service ctivities 588 5,2 6,6 43.403 70,5 70,8 74 K Financial and insurance activities 109 12,4 12,3 124.055 32,8 17,6 1.138 L Real estate activities 206 -10,8 -5,5 39.497 -1,0 -1,3 192 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 888 -4,3 -1,9 91.954 62,6 43,3 104 N Administrative and support service activities 206 -9,6 -6,2 16.668 -28,6 -28,1 81 Other activities (A,B,D,E,J,O-S) 916 -6,0 -2,7 70.821 38,7 35,2 77 Total 6.744 -9,2 -5,3 746.041 3,2 2,7 111 Source: AJPES. 1 I.e., outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month. The AJPES records include outstanding matured liabilities according to writs of execution and from tax debt, excluding other outstanding liabilities arising from unpaid bills between creditors and debtors. 2 According to Article 55 of the Companies Act (ZGD-1), enterprises are classified as micro, small, medium-sized and large enterprises based on data from annual reports of two consecutive fiscal years. 0 Insolvency of individual entrepreneurs3 is rapidly rising. In the first three months of this year their number (8,451) was more than a third higher than in the same period of 2010, and the average daily amounts of non-payments were more than double. Another problem is delays in payment, given that both the number of debtors and the average daily amounts outstanding for more than one year nearly tripled in the same period. In the first quarter the total average daily amounts unpaid for more than five consecutive days in a month exceeded EUR 134 m. The majority of non-payers are in the sectors of construction (21.3%), trade (14.5%) and accommodation and food service activities (12.4%), manufacturing (11.8%) and professional, scientific and technical activities (10.5%). Having doubled in the second half of 2013 as a result of the new legislation4 passed at the end of May, the number of bankruptcy proceedings5 initiated against legal entities continued to increase in the first quarter of 2014. In the first three months of this year 155.6% more bankruptcy proceedings were filed compared with the same period last year, while 128.6% more bankruptcy proceedings were initiated against individual entrepreneurs. Due to insolvency6 and, consequently, bankruptcy, 123 legal entities (a solid quarter more than in the same period last year) and 22 individual entrepreneurs (12 a year earlier) were deleted from the register of companies in the first quarter of 2014. A good fifth of all bankruptcy proceedings started against companies and co-operatives were in the construction sector, while more than two thirds of all bankruptcy proceedings against individual entrepreneurs were filed against entrepreneurs in the sectors of construction, trade, transportation and storage activities and manufacturing. The total number of compulsory settlement proceedings filed in the first quarter was down year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2014, 12.5% fewer compulsory settlement proceedings were filed with the court than last year, the majority against legal entities in manufacturing and trade. In compliance with the Act on Prevention of Late Payments,7 the third round8 of compulsory multilateral set-offs in 2014 was conducted in March. A total of 6,736 debtors (363 more than in the 35'h round) reported EUR 659 m in liabilities against 28,440 creditors (416 more than in the previous round). In this round 65.3% of debtors managed to set off at least part of their obligations, but the total amount set off totalled only EUR 36 m. Figure 14: Average monthly amount of outstanding liabilities by legal entities, Q1 2010-Q2 2014 ■ Up to 3 months »From 3 months to 1 year «Over 1 year 400 300 ^lyjjllil o Sour!^: AJPES. ^ Figure 15: Bankruptcy proceedings initiated against companies and co-operatives and individual entrepreneurs in Slovenia, Q1 2009-Q1 2014 Bankruptcy proceedings against legal entities (left axis) 350 ^200 (u -Q E ^150 50 Personal bankruptcies against sole proprietors (right axis) 60 40 30 1E 10 a a a a a Source: AJPES - Business Register of Slovenia. 3 Individual entrepreneurs and own-account workers. 4 Act Amending the Financial Operations, Insolvency Proceedings and Compulsory Dissolution Act (ZFPPIPP), Official Gazette of the RS, No. 47/2013 from 31 May 2013. 5 Bankruptcy proceedings are a form of winding-up an over-indebted or insolvent debtor. Under court supervision, bankruptcy proceedings are administered by the bankruptcy trustee, who liquidates the entire debtor property to obtain financial assets for settling creditor claims. Upon completion of bankruptcy proceedings, the legal entity is deleted from the court register. 6 Insolvency is the situation where a debtor, in a longer period, can no longer meet its financial obligations that became due (permanent illiquidity), or becomes unable to cover its financial obligations in the long term. 7 ZPreZP-1 (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 57/2012, from 27 July 2012), which took effect on 28 July 2012. 8 This is the 36th round of compulsory multilateral set-offs since April 2011, when the Act entered into force. In all 36 rounds together the mutual indebtedness between business entities in Slovenia declined by EUR 1.9 bn. 600 500 300 50 250 200 20 100 100 0 0 0 The stock of contracts in construction was up 18.6% year-on-year in February. The increase was solely the result of larger stocks in the construction of civil-engineering structures (by 62.8%) due to the construction of municipal infrastructure. The stock of contracts in the construction of buildings (both residential and non-residential buildings) was down on a year earlier, which is related to the unfavourable conditions on financial markets and, in our estimation, large stocks of unsold buildings as a result of limited access to funding. Figure 16: Value of construction put in place 120 100 80 60 40 20 (u 0 Total Residential buildings Non-residental buildings Civil-engineering structures Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. After four months of growth, turnover in trade declined notably in February (seasonally adjusted). Turnover in retail trade was similar to that a year earlier, while turnover in wholesale trade and the sale of motor vehicles remained up in year-on-year terms. Turnover in retail trade, which Figure 17: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real ----- of which automotive fuels, real -----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. 105 ; 100 95 90 85 80 70 o 65 'MM // 'H «hl / M / ß ' A 1 V. \ - 'v \ \\ i............f-;^ \ /' had been rising after reaching its low in September, fell in February. It declined in all three segments, particularly in the sale of automotive fuels, while in the sale of non-food products it fell most notably in stores selling household appliances and audio and video recordings, which recorded an increase of 10% in the previous month. Nominal turnover in wholesale also declined in February, after it was rising in the previous four months. Turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles, which had started to pick up in August, also fell, for the second month in a row. Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade)8 declined in February (-1.4%, seasonally adjusted) and remained at the 2013 level. It dwindled in most of the major categories except accommodation and food service activities and administrative and support service activities. Even though it declined in February, in remained up in year-on-year terms in all but professional and technical activities, where it is farthest below the pre-crisis levels due to a sharp decline in architectural and engineering services as a result of the crisis. One of the highest year-on-year growth rates continues to be seen in transport services, the only sector with significantly higher turnover than before the crisis. Year-on-year growth has also been retained in information and communication activities, where in recent months a rising trend has being observed in telecommunication and computer services. Administrative and support service activities continue to see strong growth in turnover in employment services, while turnover in travel agencies declines (in the former it was a fifth higher and in the latter a third lower relative to 2008). Turnover in accommodation and food service activities has stagnated at October's level in the last few months, after growth at the beginning of 2013. Figure 18: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional-technical activ. (M) ^ -Administrative and support service activities (N) 100 95 85 80 Sout^^B: SURS; d^lculation^y IMAD.^ ^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 8 Activities from H to N (SCA 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 110 = 105 90 75 75 Box 3: Road and rail freight transport, Q4 2013 Freight transport by rail, which continued to rise in the final quarter of 2013, increased by a tenth at the annual level, while freight transport by road stagnated. Road freight transport, stagnating just below the average level in the year before the crisis, with ever smaller fluctuations, otherwise declined by 1.0% in the final quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted). While international transport fell (except cross-trade and cabotage1), national transport rose substantially, which is also related to higher activity in construction.2 Having declined for several years, the share of national transport otherwise accounts for less than 13% of total transport, while the ratio of carriage of legal and natural persons has stayed almost the same since the beginning of the crisis.3 Rail freight transport rose by 6.7% in the final quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted), which together with strong growth in the previous quarter contributed to an increase of 9.5% in 2013, so that in 2013 rail freight transport was almost a fifth higher than in 2008. International rail freight transport was nearly a third higher year-on-year in the last quarter of 2013 (in contrast to national transport, which remained practically unchanged); the value of exports of rail transport services was up as much as two thirds, which indicates growth in the share of transport services ordered, or paid for, by a foreign business entity. Figure 19: Road and rail freight transport -Road transport (left axis) -Rail transport (right axis) 2,000 1,800 I,600 1,400 1,200 (D 1,000 is 800 c c o 600 (D 400 Source: SURS; calculations by imAAd. 1 Cross-trade and cabotage increased by 5.2% year-on-year in Q4 2013. Their share has continued to increase in the last few years (from 40% in Q4 2008 to 44% in Q4 2013). 2 The largest shares in the structure of national transport are accounted for by transport of mining and quarrying products and non-metallic mineral products, i.e. primarily products that are used in construction. In real terms the value of construction put in place rose by 13.1% in the final quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted). 3 Close to two thirds of carriage was performed by legal entities and just over a third by natural persons. The ratio was not affected by the recent bankruptcies of some of the largest freight transport companies, as they mainly subcontracted individual carriers. Household income, loan volume and bank deposits were down again year-on-year in the first quarter of 2014, while the wage bill has been steadily growing since autumn. The net wage bill, which has been rising slowly since October (seasonally adjusted), remained more or less unchanged year-on-year in the first three months of the year (at 0.1%, in real terms). In the first two months transfers to individuals and households were 1.0%9 lower in real terms relative to the same period last year. Loan volume in March was down in year-on-year terms (-3.3%); consumer and other loans were lower, while housing loans remained at the level recorded in the same period of the previous year. Household deposits in banks also remained down year-on-year (-1.5%). Among household consumption indicators, turnover in retail trade in durable goods was up slightly in the first quarter of this year, but it lags the most behind the pre-crisis level. Real turnover in retail trade (excluding automotive fuels) recorded a small year-on-year decline in January and February. Within that, turnover in the sale of durable goods10 (which has been on a rising trend since September) was up (seasonally adjusted). In the first quarter of 2014 the number of passenger car registrations by natural persons was 12.8% lower than in the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted, the number of registrations also continues to decline; in March it was 62% lower relative to 2008. Figure 20: Household consumption indicators -----No. of first passenger car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Turnover in stores selling durables (left axis) - Net wage bill (right axis) ^ 130 ro 120 110 o Je 100 90 lÜ 80 70 iS 60 ■ö !Z 50 40 106 . ro 104 102 i? o 100 E -C 98 <Š 96 94 ŠiS 92 iS "12 90 Source: SURS, Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning; calculations by IMAD. Economic sentiment continues to improve. The improvement in April was a consequence of higher confidence in service activities. Other sectors saw no major changes, only confidence in construction worsened in April after improving in the previous month. Confidence among consumers remains at January's level. 9 According to the consolidated public finance balance of the Ministry of Finance, excluding scholarships. Since May 2013 expenditure on scholarships has been covered from direct government funds or reserves. 10 Turnover in the sale of furniture, construction material, household appliances, audio/video recordings in specialised stores. 88 200 30 86 0 Figure 21: Business trends -Economic sentiment -----Retail trade -Construction 40 (u 30 I? 20 10 JZ 0 -10 -20 -30 ■Ö !Z T3 -40 -50 -60 C o -70 Manufacturing Figure 22: Employed according to the statistical register of employment (SRE) and registered unemployed Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Labour market The number of persons in employment11 has remained relatively unchanged since spring 2013. The decline in the number recorded since the end of 2008 came to a halt in April 2013. Since then, the number remained more or less unchanged until February (seasonally adjusted). Since the beginning of the second quarter of 2013, it has risen slightly in public and market services, while being down slightly in the construction sector due to a strong fall in December (seasonally adjusted). The number of employed persons in the construction sector also dropped slightly in February. The registered unemployment rate did not change much in February (13.6%, seasonally adjusted), but it remained highest since 1999. Registered unemployment stopped growing in the past two months (seasonally adjusted). In contrast to the first two months of the year, when it was still rapidly rising, Table 6: Employed persons by activity -Employed according to SRE (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) 780 760 ■2 740 T^ 720 700 ii 680 E Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. primarily due to a significant inflow of people who became unemployed due to the termination of their fixed-term contracts and first-time jobseekers, the number of registered unemployed remained unchanged in March, before declining somewhat in April (by 0.4%, seasonally adjusted). A total of123,636 persons were registered in the unemployment register at the end of April, up 1.9% from the previous April. The inflow to unemployment being as usual for this time of the year, April's seasonally adjusted decline is mainly a consequence of an increased outflow from unemployment, primarily into employment. In the first four months of this year, slightly fewer people than in the same period of 2013 registered as unemployed, mainly as fewer persons lost work, but the number of first-time jobseekers was up slightly, meaning that young people are facing increased difficulties in accessing the labour market. The total outflow from unemployment was somewhat larger, particularly as more people found jobs, also due to participation in public works. Number in '000 Change in Number 2013 II 13 XII 13 II 14 2013/ 2012 II 14/ I 14 II 14/ II 13 I-II 14/ I-II 13 Manufacturing 177.7 177.8 177.0 177.4 -5,235 392 -358 -575 Construction 54.3 51.8 52.0 50.7 -5,541 -327 -1,023 -984 Market services 333.1 332.0 333.5 332.6 -5,260 663 644 356 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 104.2 105.5 103.8 103.1 -3,656 -125 -2,388 -2,427 Public services 170.1 170.1 170.2 170.5 -1,489 752 369 258 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 49.1 49.4 48.9 48.7 -1,559 125 -602 -596 Education 65.4 65.5 65.6 66.0 -71 338 526 427 Human health and social work activities 55.6 55.3 55.7 55.7 141 289 445 426 Other 58.4 57.2 58.6 52.0 1,121 235 -5,219 -5,423 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 1 According to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE); these are employed and self-employed persons excluding self-employed farmers. 860 840 820 800 660 Table 7: Unemployment flows I-XII 13 I-IV 13 I-IV 14 IV 14 INFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED - TOTAL 108,344 39,081 37,319 7,159 First-time jobseekers 19,071 4,772 5,240 1,015 Jobseekers who lost work 88,710 34,245 32,025 6,138 Bankruptcy of the company 3,732 1,339 1,090 137 Business reasons or compulsory settlement 17,896 6,564 6,155 1,333 Termination of fixed-term contracts 54,004 21,559 20,069 3,565 Other reasons 13,078 4,783 4,711 1,103 Other (transitions between records) 563 64 54 6 OUTFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED - TOTAL 102,390 35,810 37,698 10,253 Unemployed who found work 65,054 23,509 27,956 7,272 Public works 5,423 2,865 3,797 485 Self-employment 5,789 1,565 1,206 352 Transitions into inactivity 13,295 3,700 3,536 748 Retirement 8,511 2,397 1,980 450 Breaches of regulations 14,772 5,315 3,131 1,146 Other (transfer to other registers, other) 9,269 3,286 3,075 1,087 Table 8: Indicators of labour market trends in % 2013 II 14/ I 14 II 14/ II 13 I-II 14/ I-II 13 Labour force -0.7 0.2 0.0 -0.1 Persons in formal employment -2.0 0.21 -0.7 -0.8 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.6 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Registered unemployed 8.8 0.41 4.6 4.5 Average nominal gross wage -0.2 0.21 1.6 1.1 - private sector 0.6 0.01 2.4 - public sector -1.3 0.31 0.5 -0.1 -of which general government -2.5 -0.11 -1.0 2013 II 13 I 14 II 14 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 13.1 13.0 13.5 13.6 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,523.18 1,497.55 1,534.54 1,520.88 Private sector (in EUR) 1,404.40 1,373.20 1,421.34 1,406.47 Public sector (in EUR) 1,740.78 1,722.63 1,741.94 1,730.63 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,716.48 1,719.24 1,709.94 1,701.42 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'seasonally adjusted. The average gross earnings rose again in February, but only on account of growth in public corporations'2 (seasonally adjusted). Earnings in the private13 and government sectors remained unchanged. As usual in February, 12 Public corporations are corporations controlled by units of the general government sector, the basic criterion for determining control being majority ownership (owning more than half of the voting shares). They include companies, banks, insurance corporations, old people's homes, pharmacies, etc. 13 As of June 2012, we only comment on data on earnings in the private sector and public sector (within the latter, particularly in the general government), and only exceptionally on earnings in activities of the private sector and in public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics - Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sector. average gross earnings fell somewhat further (in all sectors and activities14), according to original data, on account of lower basic earnings due to fewer working days (a contribution of -2.4 p.p.), while the contribution of extraordinary payments and, to a lesser extent, overtime payments and payments in arrears was positive (together 1.5 percentage points). In the first two months, earnings in the private sector and public corporations were up 2.1% and 2.2% in year-on-year terms, respectively, while earnings in the government sector remained down (-1.1%). The gap between growth in industry (4.5%) and market services (0.6%) widened further. Figure 23: Average gross earnings per employee 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 / 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 -Gross earnings per employee ■ Private sector -Public sector -of which, general government sector - -of which, public corporations ■ : : : Source: SURS. 14 Except in the manufacturing sector, where they stagnated due to a substantial increase in extraordinary payments, and in mining and electricity supply. In the latter, the increase in the average gross earnings (6.4%) was mostly due to higher payments for overtime work (a contribution of 5.7 percentage points) due to ice damage repair. Table 9: Earnings by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2013 II 2014 2013/2012 II 14/I14 II 14/II 13 I-II 14/I-II 13 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,473.47 1,476.79 0.7 -0.9 2.7 2.0 Industry (B-E) 1,482.76 1,530.89 2.6 0.6 5.8 4.5 - of which manufacturing 1,436.53 1,481.91 2.8 0.1 5.3 4.6 Construction 1,188.38 1,170.66 -1.4 -1.0 0.5 -0.5 Traditional services (G-I) 1,355.65 1,328.77 0.1 -2.3 0.9 0.9 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,691.40 1,663.58 -1.3 -1.9 0.4 0.0 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,670.91 1,651.28 -2.3 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,727.19 1,711.00 -1.4 -0.9 -0.8 -1.1 - Education 1,621.86 1,606.72 -3.3 -0.6 -1.5 -1.1 - Human health and social work activities 1,677.78 1,649.80 -2.0 -0.7 -1.4 -1.3 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Prices Price movements remained moderate in April. As typical of this month of the year, April's inflation (0.5%) was mainly impacted by seasonal factors, primarily higher prices of clothing and footwear (contribution of 0.3 percentage points), fruit and some services (together around 0.3 percentage points). Year-on-year inflation thus stood at 0.4%, being down from the previous month and lower than in the euro area (0.7%, according to Eurostat's flash estimate). Figure 24: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 3 - Slovenia HICP • Slovenia HICP - core inflation - Euro area HICP Euro area HICP - core inflation o o ^ C^ C^ CD Source: Eurostat Price movements in the first quarter15 were, alongside the usual seasonal factors, mainly due to higher prices of services and lower energy prices. According to detailed data by SURS, prices were up 0.3% in the first three months of this year (0.2% in the same period of last year). Q1 growth was marked primarily by higher prices of services (a contribution of 0.6 percentage points to inflation). On the other hand, inflation was lowered by prices of energy (-0.2 percentage points), but their contribution was much smaller than a year earlier (0.6 percentage points) as there was no base effect in electricity prices16 and due lower euro prices of oil on global markets (-7.3%). Food price growth remains modest this year, and it continues to slow in the absence of price shocks from commodity markets. The movement of core inflation continues to be moderate and under the impact of modest demand. Figure 25: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation 1^4 1 " 0 o o o o o C Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 15 Detailed data on April's inflation will be released later and commented upon in the next SEM. 16 The contribution of lower electricity prices declined by 0.4 percentage points in March due to the termination of the effect of the increase in the contribution for renewable energy sources in February. 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 -1 -2 Table 10: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - March 2014 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 0.1 100.0 0.1 0.1 100.0 0.1 Goods -0.4 64.8 -0.3 0.0 57.2 0.0 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco -0.3 16.1 0.0 0.5 12.3 0.1 Non-processed food 1.1 7.5 0.1 -0.4 7.5 0.0 Non-energy industrial goods -0.5 26.4 -0.1 0.0 26.7 0.0 Durables 0.1 8.7 0.0 -0.1 8.4 0.0 Non-durables 0.4 8.5 0.0 0.3 8.1 0.0 Semi-durables -1.1 9.2 -0.1 0.7 10.2 0.1 Energy -1.0 14.7 -0.1 -0.2 10.8 0.0 Electricity for households -2.9 2.8 -0.1 1.5 2.7 0.0 Natural gas 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating 0.3 1.3 0.0 -2.7 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels -1.7 1.0 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 District heating -1.6 0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.6 0.0 Fuels and lubricants -0.6 7.6 0.0 -1.0 4.8 0.0 Services 1.2 35.2 0.4 0.3 42.8 0.1 Services - dwellings 1.0 3.2 0.0 0.8 10.5 0.1 Services - transport 3.0 6.2 0.2 0.3 7.3 0.0 Services - communications -0.3 3.6 0.0 -0.8 3.1 0.0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 0.2 14.3 0.0 0.1 14.7 0.0 Services - other services 2.2 8.0 0.2 0.9 7.2 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 0.3 77.8 0.2 0.2 81.7 0.2 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification Price growth in the euro area, still being under the impact of weak demand, also stayed low in March (0.5%). In comparison with the previous month, euro area countries saw a decline in year-on-year growth again, which was, against the background of global commodity price movements, mainly marked by lower prices of energy (a contribution of -0.2 percentage points). The latter affected the price dynamics in most euro area countries where inflation remains low. The otherwise meagre growth (the lowest since 2009) mainly stemmed from higher prices of services (0.5 percentage points), the contribution of food (0.1 percentage points) being much lower than in the same period last year (0.5 percentage points), as there were no shocks from the international environment. Industrial producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets declined again. The year-on-year price decline on the domestic market (-1.5%) deepened slightly in March relative to the previous month and remained, as on foreign markets (-0.4%) mainly marked by lower prices in the manufacture of metals and ICT and electrical equipment. The year-on-year decline in import prices deepened slightly in March (-2.7%). Year-on-year growth in prices of imported products fell by 0.7 percentage points relative Figure 26: Movements of domestic producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr.of basic metals,fabric.metal prod.,ex. mach.,equip.(domestic) ---------Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) - PPI (foreign market) 20 16 12 # 8 SZ 0 -8 -12 -16 r r \ \ \ \ ^ A • • • V-' t /V'' \ ! ' /^k // ^ jJ \ 1 \\ ^—/iy \ AW 1 / s ; ........■ V o o ^ — Source: SURS. to the previous month, in addition to lower prices of oil products, due to lower prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-5.1%) and chemicals and chemical products (-5.7%). In the first quarter of this year, the price competitiveness of the economy deteriorated further year-on-year, but the loss was again smaller than in most other countries in the euro area. The real effective exchange rate as measured by the relative HICP17 continued to rise year-on-year in the first quarter, but its growth was lower for the second quarter in a row due to a smaller appreciation of the euro and a decline in relative prices. In a small group of euro area countries18 price competitiveness improved in the final quarter of 2013 and in the first quarter of 2014. Among the rest, Slovenia was in the group of countries with relatively smaller losses in price competitiveness. Figure 27: Real effective exchange rates deflated by the HICP and ULC I REERHICP I REERULC -ULC HICP -NEER 2 a a a a a Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. In the final quarter of 2013, the cost competitiveness of the economy again improved more in year-on-year terms than on average in the euro area and the EU. Modest nominal growth in compensation per employee19 continued amid a concurrent increase in labour productivity as a result of a fall in employment and higher economic activity, for the first time after two years of decline. The improvement in cost competitiveness therefore accelerated in the final quarter of last year. Unit labour costs in Slovenia's main trading partners mostly increased in the final quarter of 2013, in nominal terms, so that the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative unit labour costs also declined more than in the third quarter of the year. In the last quarter and in the entire 2013, Slovenia was in a smaller group of euro area and EU countries with larger gains in cost competitiveness.20 After the more pronounced loss in cost competitiveness at the beginning of the crisis, Slovenia's relative position improved last year for the third year in a row, although it is still lower than before the crisis. 17 In Slovenia, in comparison with its trading partners. 18 In the final quarter of 2013 in two (Greece and Latvia) and in the first quarter of 2014 in three (Greece, Cyprus and Portugal). 19 In real terms compensation per employee was down again (by 0.3%), for the seventh quarter in a row. Figure 28: Real unit labour costs in Slovenia and the EU ^^RULC Slovenia ^hRULC EU -Productivity Slovenia -Productivity EU -----Compensation per empl. Slovenia ■ Compensation per empl. EU a a a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 29: Real unit labour costs in EU countries in 2013 —;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—;—r- ■ Productivity -real* ■ Compensation per employee -real* ♦ RULC š: 0 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: *GDP deflator. In 2013 cost competitiveness improved in most sectors of the economy. The decline in real unit labour costs in the tradable sector21 was mainly attributable to rising labour productivity due to the adjustment of employment to lower activity and a more modest increase in earnings. This holds true particularly for the manufacturing sector and, albeit to a lesser extent, trade, transport and accommodation and food service activities. On the other hand, the cost competitiveness of the non-tradable sector mostly improved due to a decline in wages. 20 Data are available for 24 EU Member States (16 euro area countries). 21 Based on the definition, according to which the tradable sector includes: A agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-E industry excluding construction, G-I trade, transportation, accommodation and food service activities, J information and communication (European Commission, Quarterly report on the euro area, Volume 12 N.2, 2013). 6 3 0 -3 -6 7 -9 6 5 4 0 -1 4 -2 -3 ; 2 -4 -2 -4 -6 Box 4: Slovenian merchandise market shares in 2013 Figure 30: Change in Slovenia's market shares on the global market and in the EU ■ World 10 6 i -2 After five years of decline, Slovenia's global market share of goods increased in 2013 (4.1%) as a result of growth in and outside the EU. The loss on the global market is still considerable (-18.7%), compared with the pre-crisis level, but the market share in the EU is, after last year's growth, no longer noticeably lower than before the crisis (-1.2%, similar to 2011: - 1.6%). Market share growth in the EU (5.5%) was a consequence of larger shares in all main trading partners in the EU, notably Italy, Austria, Croatia and Hungary. The increase in the market share in Germany was modest for the second consecutive year, similar to that in France, where until 2013, Slovenia's market share had been declining for three years in a row. In 2013 Slovenia also increased its shares on most other, relatively less important, markets of the EU.1 Among the most important partners outside the EU, its market share rose in Russia, Macedonia and the US, while declining in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 2013, growth in the market share of goods in the EU was largely driven by chemical products, oil and oil derivatives and electricity. The increase in the market share of chemicals was underpinned by growth in the shares of medical and pharmaceutical products, as well as a number of otherwise relatively less important chemical products.2 After a more pronounced decline in 2010-2012,3 the market share of machinery and transport equipment rose again, growth being recorded by electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, general industrial machinery, machinery specialised for particular industries, and road vehicles. The market shares of manufactured goods classified by material and miscellaneous manufactured articles remained just below the 2012 level, the former due to paper, paperboard, and articles of paper pulp and non-ferrous metals, the latter due to scientific instruments, clothing and footwear.4 The share of primary products rose much more (17.4%) than the share of manufactured goods, mainly under the impact of oil and oil products and electricity.5 -12 Source: UN, SURS, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 31: Change in the market shares in main trading partners, 2013 15 13 11 9 7 5 KD Source: SURS, Euros^at, WIIW, US Census Bureau; calculations by IMAD. *Note: according to the first preliminary data (UN). Figure 32: Change in the market shares in the EU by main SITC sections,6 2013 ■ Exports Slovenia «Imports EU ♦Market share Source: SURS, Eurostat; calculations byyIMAD. Note:''^Expo^ 3 share 27.6%. 1 Spain, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Sweden and Romania. 2 Organic and inorganic chemicals, materials for dyeing and tanning, plastics and plastic products. 3 The more pronounced decline in the market share of machinery and transport equipment in the EU in 2010-2012 (by more than a tenth) was a consequence of a large decline in the share of road vehicles (by around a quarter) after the incentives to stimulate car purchases began to be phased out in 2010, which was also reflected in a large decline in the Slovenian market share in France in this period (by around a third). 4 Amid a decline in the shares of rubber and textile products, iron and steel and furniture. 5 Growth was a consequence of increased trading in these commodities in recent years (exports of imported goods). 6 Accounting for a 2% or greater share in total merchandise exports in the EU in 2013. -12 -5 Figure 33: Real unit labour costs by activity in 2013 Productivity, nominal «Compensation per empl., nominal ♦RULC Source: SURS; I _i OL'iiO KD z - ; calculations by Figure 34: Real unit labour costs in the tradable sector, Slovenia and the EU -EU 27 -Slovenia a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 11: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness Annual change, in % 2012 2013 q1 13 q2 13 q3 13 q4 13 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal -1.2 1.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 Real, deflator HICP -1.1 1.3 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.3 Real, deflator ULC -3.0 -1.6 -2.2 -1.3 -1.0 -2.0 Unit labour costs. economy and components Nominal unit labour costs 0.8 -0.8 1.2 -0.5 -1.1 -2.7 Compensation of employees per employee. nominal -1.0 0.1 -0.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 Labour productivity, real -1.7 0.9 -2.0 1.1 1.3 3.2 Real unit labour costs 0.5 -1.8 1.2 -2.0 -2.6 -3.4 Labour productivity, nominal -1.5 1.9 -2.0 2.7 2.8 3.9 SORS. ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 against 36 trading partners. according to ECB. The cost competitiveness of the tradable sector is gradually approaching the pre-crisis level and is roughly on a par with the EU average. Real unit labour costs in the Slovenian tradable sector in 2013 were still 5.5% higher than in 2007 (11.6% higher in 2010), which is only slightly more than in the EU overall (3.7%; 2.8% in 2010). The improvement in the competitive position is visible in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for the majority of Slovenia's merchandise exports, and in the sectors of trade, transportation, accommodation and food service activities and information and communication activities. Balance of payments The surplus of the current account is not widening any more, but it remains significant. In February it was down year-on-year, on account of changes in all four balances, particularly a wider deficit in factor income. The surplus in international trade was down in year-on-year terms in February, due to a lower surplus in trade in goods and services. The lower surplus in merchandise trade was the result of weaker growth in exports to the EU and stronger imports from outside the EU. The surplus in trade with non-EU countries narrowed more than the deficit in trade with the EU. The year-on-year fall in services trade was largely a consequence of trade in the group of business services, the main factors being a lower surplus in intermediation and other services related to trade,22 and a higher deficit in administrative and support services activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities. Expenditure on investment works carried out by foreign companies in Slovenia was also up, on account of investment in a major energy facility. On the other hand, Slovenian construction companies generated less revenue abroad, in year-on-year terms. 22 All payments related to monetary intermediation, commission for other financial intermediation services and other costs. The deficits in factor income and current transfers were up in February. The wider deficit in factor income in February was mainly due to higher net interest payments on external debt, which can be explained by growth in government sector borrowing.23 Net interest payments of the private sector were also somewhat higher, on account of debt financing between affiliated companies and the borrowing of other sectors. The Bank of Slovenia reported stable, positive, net interest receipts, despite the low interest rate. The total net payments of interest in the first two months of this year stood at EUR 116.8 m (EUR 68.7 m in the same period of 2013). The wider deficit in current transfers was mainly related to the lower absorption of EU funds. The deficit in private sector transfers was narrower year-on-year due to lower net payments of nonlife insurance premiums and claims. Figure 35: Components of the current account of the balance of payments 400 — 300 200 100 ; 0 ) J ' -100 -200 -300 -400 I Merchandise trade I Factor income Current account Services trade Current transfers -500 ^ ^SoL^ce:i^S; cal^ulat^onsl^y IMAD. ^ International financial transactions24 recorded a net inflow in February (EUR '7'.' m). The majority of capital flows were from portfolio and other investment, while direct investment flows remained subdued. Portfolio investment posted a net inflow of EUR 2,740.3 m. In February the government issued 5- and 10-year bonds in the total amount of USD 3.5 bn (EUR 2.7 bn). Other investment registered a net outflow of EUR 2,569.5 m. Thereby, the Bank of Slovenia settled all liabilities in the framework of the Eurosystem and increased financial assets in its accounts abroad. The remaining funds were deposited by the government with commercial banks, which used them to increase investment in foreign debt securities and repay a portion of loans taken out abroad. 23 Between the deepening of the financial crisis in September 2008 and the end of February 2014, Slovenia's gross external debt rose by EUR 15.4 bn to EUR 19.1 bn. 24 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. Direct investment posted a net inflow of EUR 72.4 m. Equity capital flows were modest. Intra-company crediting prevailed, with a rise in net liabilities of Slovenian subsidiaries against parent companies abroad. Figure 36: Financial transactions of the balance of payments 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 E 500 cc u ^^ 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 ■ Direct investment I Financial derivatives -Net financial flow I Portfolio investment Other investment ^^ Source: BS. Table '2: Balance of payments II 14, v mio EUR Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, II 13 Current account 4,695.6 4,581.7 113.9 144.3 - Trade balance (FOB) 3,670.9 3,550.9 120.1 7.7 - Services 730.8 503.0 227.8 291.6 - Income 131.1 235.4 -104.3 -49.0 Current transfers 162.8 292.5 -129.6 -106.0 Capital and financial account 3,324.9 -3,348.9 -24.0 -486.2 - Capital account 50.0 -48.4 1.6 -5.4 - Capital transfers 35.5 -41.6 -6.1 -5.3 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 14.5 -6.7 7.7 -0.1 - Financial account 3,274.9 -3,300.5 -25.6 -480.8 - Direct investment 112.3 -29.0 83.2 76.2 - Portfolio investment 3,087.3 63.3 3,150.6 -138.9 - Financial derivates -4.4 -58.4 -62.8 31.1 - Other investment 79.8 -3,098.4 -3,018.6 -482.7 - Assets 17.1 -1,647.6 -1,630.5 -710.2 - Liabilities 62.7 -1,450.9 -1,388.2 227.5 - Reserve assets 0.0 -178.0 -178.0 33.5 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -89.9 -89.9 341.9 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Financial markets The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors continued to decline in March. The decline (EUR 71.4 m) was otherwise around EUR 100 m smaller than in February. The majority was a consequence of corporate and, to a lesser extent, government deleveraging, while the volume of household loans rose slightly. Loans to domestic non-banking sectors were down EUR 275 m25 in the first quarter of this year, which is a sign that the decline in the volume of loans is steadily easing this year. The banks continued to deleverage abroad and reduce their liabilities to the ECB. The volume of household and government loans was also down (together by around EUR 300 m). Household loans rose somewhat in March after six consecutive months of decline. The otherwise modest increase of EUR 3.9 m was entirely the result of borrowing for other purposes, while consumer and housing loans declined. Households continue to reduce foreign currency loans. Despite the meagre growth in March, the volume of household loans was down EUR 64.0 in the first quarter of the year. Corporate and NFI loans were down EUR 66.7 m in March. The decline was solely the result of corporate deleveraging, as NFI loans remained practically unchanged. In the first quarter of 2014, the volume of corporate and NFI loans declined by a solid EUR 200 m. February recorded corporate and NFI net repayments abroad, as the gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates widened. Net repayments amounted to EUR 58.6 m in February. Approximately 60% of debt repayments Figure 37: Increase in household, corporate and NFI and government loans ^m Households 700 I Corporate and NFIs I ■ Government -Total 600 500 400 300 200 : 100 i 0 ' -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 were the result of corporate net repayments of long-term loans recorded for the fourth month in a row. Owing to slightly stronger borrowing in January, corporate and NFI net borrowing abroad totalled EUR 16 m in the first two months of the year. Having narrowed substantially in January, the gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates widened markedly again in February, and were, at 220 basis points, approximately at the same level as at the end of the previous year. The gaps were wider only in Greece, Cyprus and Portugal. Figure 38: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates ^^m Short-term loans (left axis) Long-term loans (left axis) -Diff. between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 700 600 . 500 400 300 E R 200 -100 --200 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. In February banks continued to deleverage abroad. Net debt repayments (over EUR 160 m) were primarily the result of the net repayment of long-term loans and, to a lesser extent, short-term loans and bonds. The banks thus Figure 39: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of Slovenian banks 2,000 -i- 1 * Bonds Deposits 1,50^ ' Short-term loans Long-term loans Total 1,000 J^ ^^ ^^ ^^ Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 25 The change in loan volume as at 31 March 2014 compared with 31 December 2013. Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 100 -300 -400 500 - 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 Table 13: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 13 31. III 14 31. III 14/28. II 14 31. III 14/31. XII 13 31. III 14/31. III 13 Loans total 26,176.0 25,901.0 -0.3 -1.1 -16.5 Enterprises and NFI 15,594.8 15,388.6 -0.4 -1.3 -23.5 Government 1,664.0 1,659.1 -0.5 -0.3 -4.3 Households 8,917.3 8,853.2 0.0 -0.7 -3.3 Consumer credits 2,213.4 2,203.4 -0.4 -0.5 -8.8 Lending for house purchase 5,306.5 5,289.5 0.0 -0.3 0.9 Other lending 1,397.3 1,360.3 1.1 -2.6 -9.4 Bank deposits total 14,588.1 14,866.9 -0.2 1.9 -1.5 Overnight deposits 6,446.6 6,651.3 0.3 3.2 4.3 Short-term deposits 3,681.9 3,648.6 -1.5 -0.9 -10.4 Long-term deposits 4,456.1 4,563.5 -0.1 2.4 -1.4 Deposits redeemable at notice 3.5 3.6 -7.7 1.7 -53.0 Mutual funds 1,854.6 1,872.7 0.4 1.0 -0.5 Government bank deposits, total 1,284.1 1,455.5 -15.3 13.4 -44.4 Overnight deposits 22.9 71.6 -79.7 212.9 -87.7 Short-term deposits 512.8 782.1 7.8 52.5 47.2 Long-term deposits 738.5 587.4 -7.6 -20.5 -60.8 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.8 14.4 229.3 46.4 420.9 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. repaid a total of EUR 300 m net in foreign liabilities in the first two months of this year. Liabilities to foreign banks now total only EUR 5.4 bn. Household and government deposits in banks shrank in March, after two months of growth. Household deposits fell by EUR 36.9 m, notably short-term deposits and to a lesser extent long-term deposits. The volume of household deposits was nevertheless approximately EUR 280 m higher in the first quarter, despite the decline in March. Government deposits dropped more than EUR 260 m in March. The government was mainly withdrawing overnight deposits and, to a lesser extent, long-term deposits. In the first quarter government deposits were up more than EUR 170 m. The share of non-performing claims26 in the banking system increased in February, but the creation of additional impairments and provisions remained low. The share of non-performing claims rose by 0.7 percentage points, to 13.9% of the banking sector's total exposure, with non-performing claims amounting to EUR 5.8 bn. After increasing at the end of last year (in our estimation, as a result of the inappropriate valuation of collateral), the creation of impairments and provisions eased at the beginning of 2014 and was lower than in the previous four years. The banks thus created EUR 19 m of additional impairments and provisions in February; in the first two months only around EUR 30 m. Figure 40: Creation of impairments and provisions and the proportion of arrears of more than 90 days in the Slovenian banking system ^■Impairments and provisions -Proportion of arrears of more than 90 days (right axis) 500 450 400 350 300 250 Ču iE 200 150 100 50 0 -50 662 2 ..............i....... / ..............?■■■ / ..............1....... A i A ......... .... 1 lili 254 22 20 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 0 rN rN m m 26 Since December, the proportion of claims in arrears for more than 90 days has also been significantly impacted by the lower base due to the transfer of claims to the BAMC. Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The yield to maturity of the 10-year euro bond and the spread with respect to the German bond declined further in April. Compared with one month earlier, the yield (3.52%) and the spread vis-a-vis the German bond (208 basis points) were 32 basis points and 26 basis points lower in April. At the beginning of the month the yield was the lowest experienced thus far (3.4%). Towards the end of the month it returned to the previous month's average due to increased political uncertainty. Figure 41: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bond 5 ^^ iT ^fr ^^ Source: Bloomberg. Public finance As a result of higher expenditure than the increase in revenue, the general government deficit during the first two months of 2014 was similar to that a year earlier. It amounted to EUR 488 m, 1% more than in the same period of 2013.27 Expenditure was up 3.7%, revenue up 4.3%. The higher revenue in the first two months of 2014 (year-on-year) is explained by the increase in all main revenue categories with the exception of EU funds. The largest contribution to positive revenue performance came Figure 42: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 17.0 16.0 .15 15.5 iE 14.5 -General government revenue (total) -General government expediture (total) o ^ ^ rN rN rn m 5Š 5Š 5Š Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. from tax revenue (5.6% year-on-year), followed by nontax revenue (21%, year-on-year) and, after a long period of decline, an increase in social security contributions (3.8%). Revenue from EU funds decreased for the second time in the year and was 22.9% lower year-on-year in the first two months. Revenues from all main tax categories increased year-on-year in the first two months with the exception of excise duties (-3.1%). The largest contributor to the increase was higher revenue from VAT (up EUR 38 m or 7.7% year-on-year, mainly on account of higher growth in January (11.2%), as it was down in February (3.2%)). The rise in tax revenue was also a consequence of higher revenues from personal income tax (up 2.5%) and corporate income tax (up 6.7%), but revenue from the latter was down in February (-3.2%) after January's strong year-on-year growth. Figure 43: Receipts from the EU budget in 2014 and 2013 ■ Total receipts in 2014 (January - March) ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-December) Other Common Agricultural Policy 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Figure 44: Planned and absorbed EU funds, 2014 and 2013 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2014 ■ Absorption rate with regard to the revised state budget for 2013 Other Common Agricultural Policy 27 According to the consolidated balance on a cash basis. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 In % Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 7 6 . 4 2 0 1 15.0 14.0 Box 5: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the 2007-2013 programming period (as at 31 March 2014) Figure 45: Delays and absorption (as on 31 March 2014) ■ Allocated funds ■ Signed contracts Payments to beneficiaries ■ Certified claims for reimbursement ■ Delays ■ Absorption relative to financial allocation for 2007-2013 (in %) 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 JE 1000 750 500 250 OP RR OP RČV OP ROPI Source: Ministry of Economic Development and Technology. In the first three months of the current year, Slovenia was drawing funds from the previous programming period (2007-2013). The value of signed contracts was EUR 118.3 m; beneficiaries received EUR 144.2 m from the state budget; reimbursements from the EU budget to the Slovenian state budget totalled EUR 111.2 m. The majority of the total of EUR 4.1 bn allocated to Slovenia for the implementation of the Cohesion Policy (OP RR,1 OP RČV,2 OP ROPI3) under the programming period of 2007-2013 was appropriated between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2014; the value of signed contracts accounted for 95.4%, receipts from the state budget for 65.9% and certified claims for reimbursement from the EU budget for 62.2% of the allocated funds. Out of EUR 452.4 m of the additionally allocated funding, 70.1% and 80.4% was appropriated, respectively (the EU + the Slovenian part). The most additional funds were approved for OP ROPI projects. In the period from 1 January 2007 to 31 March 2014, the most cohesion funds were paid to the Slovenia statistical region as a whole. EUR 366.8 m was paid under the OP RR (the least to the Zasavska statistical region, EUR 26.9 m) and EUR 525.9 m under the OP RČV. The most funds under the OP ROPI were paid to the Pomurska (EUR 151.8 m) and the least to the Zasavska statistical region (EUR 2.0 m). The highest absorption rate with regard to the allocated funds is recorded for the OP RR (77.5% of reimbursements from the EU budget). In 2013 the government therefore reallocated part of the funds from the OP ROPI (EUR 15.0 m from the EU part and EUR 2.6 m from the Slovenian part) to the OP RR (for the area of competitiveness and research excellence). The most funds (90.3% of the available funding) were used for projects aiming to enhance corporate competitiveness and research excellence (the first development priority). A significant factor in the successful absorption of EU funds was flexibility in substituting risky projects (i.e. those behind schedule) with such that can be finished in time. The second most successful operational programme in terms of absorption is the OP RČV (69.9% of reimbursements from the EU budget). The highest level of absorption with regard to the allocated amount was recorded for human resource development and lifelong learning projects (88.3%). The absorption of funds for other development priorities was slightly lower (from 68% to 78%). The risk of losing EU funds for the OP RČV until the end of 2015 is minimal, also because the risky projects are being successfully replaced by alternative projects from the additionally allocated funds, as is the case with the OP RR. The lowest absorption rate with regard to the financial allocation is recorded for the OP ROPI (40.9% of reimbursements from the EU budget). It is lowest in environmental projects (municipal waste management - 26.2% of the available funds) and highest in the area of road and maritime infrastructure (74.1%). The drawing of EU funds for rail infrastructure continues to be low (28.2% of the available funds). One of the key difficulties in the implementation of the OP ROPI is ensuring state budget appropriations for the development of environmental infrastructure in the present economic and financial situation. Another problem for the state budget is excessive pressure on the years 2014 and 2015 due to the low absorption in previous years. Moreover, the European Commission has suspended the payments under the Cohesion Policy due to a negative audit report at the beginning of 2014. The Commission has halted the payments for interim claims received in 2012 and the payments of any possible future claims in the framework of the OP RR and OP ROPI projects. Slovenia is expected to explain the irregularities in the implementation of projects identified by the EU auditors within two months after receiving the translation of the draft audit report on 19 March 2014. 1 Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials. 2 Operational Programme for Human Resource Development. 3 Operational Programme for Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development. The increase in expenditure in the first two months of the year (year-on-year) is explained mainly by the increase in the wage bill. The increase (8.3%) is associated with payments due to the Supreme Court decision, according to which public sector employees had to be paid half of the third quarter of funds to eliminate disparities in basic wages Table 14: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-II 2014 II 2014/II 2013 I-II 2014/I-II 2013 I-II 2013 I-II 2014 General government revenue - total 2,426.9 4.6 4.3 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 72.6 -3.2 6.7 2.9 3.0 Personal income tax 334.2 4.1 2.5 14.0 13.8 Value added tax 532.3 3.2 7.7 21.2 21.9 Excise duties 182.1 -3.5 -3.1 8.1 7.5 Social security contributions 875.4 6.2 3.8 36.3 36.1 Other general government revenues 430.2 6.6 5.8 17.5 17.7 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 15: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2013 2014 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I -II 14, EUR m I-II 14/I-II 13 Revenue - total 14,725.1 41.7 -1.8 2,426.9 4.3 - Tax revenues 12,647.9 35.9 -3.6 2,130.2 4.9 - Taxes on income and profit 2,137.4 6.1 -19.5 406.3 3.1 - Social security contributions 5,127.2 14.5 -2.2 875.4 3.8 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 5,027.3 14.3 3.1 808.5 6.7 - Receipts from the EU budget 938.2 2.7 11.0 79.4 -22.9 Expenditure - total 16,282.7 46.2 1.0 2,914.6 3.7 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,617.0 10.3 -3.0 645.4 8.3 - Purchases of goods and services 2,237.4 6.3 -5.7 359.8 2.1 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 840.1 2.4 29.7 277.8 18.1 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,343.0 18.0 -0.6 1,039.3 -0.8 - Capital expenditure 1,030.8 2.9 12.7 127.6 27.3 - Capital transfers 319.0 0.9 -0.3 11.1 -54.7 - Payment to the EU budget 425.5 1.2 9.0 129.4 0.4 Deficit -1,557.6 -4.4 38.3 -487.7 1.0 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. (back payments for the period from 1 October 2010 to 31 May 2012) by February 2014. Other expenditures also increased (interest expenditure, subsidies, investments), but their contribution to growth in total expenditure was lower. Funds from reserves and different types of transfers (social transfers, investment transfers and transfers abroad) declined. Social transfers28 were lower year-on-year (down 0.8%) across all categories with the exception of those related to pensions (0.8%) and social security (7.1%). The most important reductions in social transfers concerned sickness benefits, unemployed people and family benefits. In March Slovenia received EUR 130.3 m from the EU budget. Its payments to the EU budget totalled EUR 33.3 m, which is less than half of February's payments (EUR 81.7 m).29 Its net budgetary position was thus positive for the first time this year (EUR 96.9 m). The bulk of receipts came under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 89.9 m), the receipts from Structural Funds and the Cohesion fund totalling EUR 22.3 m and EUR 17.2 m, respectively. In the first three months overall, Slovenia received EUR 209.3 m from the EU budget (the same as in the previous year, or 17.4% of the level envisaged in the budget for 2014) and paid EUR 162.7 m, 40.9% of the level planned. Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget thus totalled EUR 46.5 m in the first three months of this year (EUR 48.2 m last year). More than half of the received funds were receipts under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, 33.7% of receipts were from structural funds and 16.1% from the Cohesion Fund. 28 Since May 2013 expenditure on scholarships has been covered from direct government funds or from reserves. 29 Owing to the increased expenditure of the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF), the EC can call on the Member States to pay triple the amount of their average monthly payments to the EU budget at the beginning of the year (usually in February). See SEM, March 2014. %J a o ■Ö U 'S V) Employment in the general government sector and public service activities -international comparison Slovenia has a smaller proportion of employed people working in the government sector in comparison with other EU countries, but growth in employment during the crisis was higher, on average. The proportion of employed people who work in the general government sector (17.6%), i.e. at providers established by the government or a municipality, which are predominantly financed by public funds (over 50%), Slovenia is below the EU average (EU-26: 18.6%). In the period of the crisis (2009-2013) Figure 46: Shares of employment in the general government sector, 2012 36 33 30 27 24 21 II cu 18 (Č -C 15 12 9 6 3 0 18.9 17.6 Source: Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Shares in total employment according to national accounts (in persons); arithmetic ave. EU-26 (excl. IE and HR) - own calculation; * data for 2011; Slovenia data for 2013. Figure 47: Average annual growth in employment in the general government sector during the crisis (2009-2012), Slovenia and EU countries 1 -3 Source:Eurostat,SURS;calculations by IMAD. Note:Data for Slovenia for 2009-2013. **Slovenia (excl. the railway company): excl. the reclassification of the railway company to the general government sector (S13) in 2011. * 2009-2011. Slovenia recorded 0.5% annual growth in employment in the general government sector, on average (0.9%, taking into account the reclassification of the railway company 'Slovenske železnice' to the general government sector in 2011), while in most other EU countries growth was lower or employment declined. Slovenia has a wider gap with the EU in terms of employment in public service activities than employment in the general government sector, which is mainly attributable to the poorly developed private provision of public services. Public service activities include public administration and defence, compulsory social security (O), education (P) and human health (Q86) and social work (Q87-88) activities. Apart from those employed with providers inside the general government sector, the employed persons in public service activities include those employed with public providers that receive less than 50% from public funds (such as old people's homes, pharmacies, adult education institutions) and those working with private providers (concessionaries or purely private providers). Overall, 19.1% of all persons in employment worked in public service activities in Slovenia in 2013 (2000: 15.5%), compared with 23.2% in the EU-28 (2000: 21.8%). High shares of people working in public service activities are otherwise manly recorded by most developed EU countries but, having a relatively small share, Slovenia also lags behind countries with similar or lower levels of development. Figure 48: Share of employment in public service activities, 2013 35 30 25 20 10 24.5 23.2 19.1 'S< CE31, 13 DC^ UCL Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: Shares in total employment according to national accounts (in persons); EU-28 and EU-15 averages calculated by Eurostat; * data for 2012. Slovenia exceeds the EU average in the share of people employed in education, while lagging behind in employment in public administration and human health and social work activities. In education Slovenia exceeds the EU-28 average by 0.5 percentage points in terms of employment in persons, and by as much as 1.1 percentage points in employment in hours worked, which can be explained 15 3 2 5 0 0 -1 -2 Table 16: Share of employed persons by public service activity, in persons and hours worked, in % Public services (O-Q) 2013 Public administration (O) (2012) Education (P) (2012) Human health (Q86) (2012) Social work (Q 87-88) (2012) In persons In hours worked In persons In hours worked In persons In hours worked In persons In hours worked In persons In hours worked Slovenia 19.1 17.9 5.5 5.1 7.3 6.7 4.4 4.3 1.9 1.6 EU 27 23.2 21.2 6.5 6.4 6.7 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.2 3.6 EU 15 24.5 22.3 6.6 6.5 6.7 5.6 6.1 5.8 4.8 4.2 Austria* 22.6 20.5 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.6 6.5 5.9 3.8 3.0 Belgium 30.3 26.7 9.5 9.7 8.3 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.8 4.5 Bulgaria* 15.8 16.2 6.4 7.2 5.0 4.5 3.6 3.5 0.9 1.0 Cyprus* 20.8 17.4 9.8 8.8 6.7 4.5 3.1 3.0 1.2 1.2 Czech Republic 17.2 16.8 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.2 4.6 4.7 1.3 1.3 Denmark 31.3 30.9 5.8 6.2 8.3 8.1 6.1 6.1 11.1 10.4 Estonia* 23.6 22.3 7.4 7.7 10.3 8.8 4.4 4.4 1.4 1.4 Finland 28.3 26.2 6.7 6.8 6.7 5.7 7.4 6.9 7.6 6.7 France* 29.1 26.0 9.0 8.3 6.4 4.6 6.6 6.6 7.2 6.5 Greece 22.3 19.4 9.1 8.8 6.9 4.2 4.5 4.3 0.8 0.7 Ireland 25.7 23.7 5.4 5.6 7.9 6.4 8.5 8.1 4.8 4.1 Italy* 18.0 14.7 5.3 4.5 5.8 4.1 4.9 4.4 2.0 1.7 Latvia 20.6 20.6 6.2 6.5 9.4 8.7 4.5 4.2 1.1 1.4 Lithuania* 23.0 21.6 5.8 6.0 10.6 9.0 5.5 5.4 1.2 1.2 Luxembourg 19.5 17.6 5.7 5.6 4.6 4.6 3.8 3.0 5.2 4.4 Hungary 21.9 20.6 8.1 6.4 4.6 2.2 Malta* 22.9 7.4 8.3 4.0 3.5 Germany 23.3 22.4 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.2 4.5 4.1 Netherlands 26.7 24.2 5.6 6.0 5.5 5.2 6.1 5.9 9.6 7.0 Norway 35.0 31.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 Poland* 20.2 18.7 6.7 6.6 7.6 6.4 4.4 4.3 1.4 1.4 Portugal* 20.8 19.9 6.2 5.8 6.7 5.8 4.6 4.9 2.9 2.7 Romania* 12.0 12.1 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.3 3.3 0.9 0.9 Slovakia* 20.3 18.2 7.0 6.5 7.7 6.4 4.4 4.2 1.3 1.1 Spain 21.2 21.1 7.9 8.2 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.3 1.9 1.9 Sweden 33.4 32.0 Switzerland 23.9 4.1 4.1 6.9 United Kingdom* 26.1 23.9 5.1 5.5 8.3 6.9 7.2 6.6 5.4 4.9 Source: Eurostat. Notes: Shares in total employment according to national accounts; *the EU-27 and EU-15 averages according to Eurostat's calculations. by a significantly lower level of part-time employment.30 Lower employment in health and social work is to a great extent related to the poorly developed private provision of these activities, particularly in long-term care. The share of employment in hours worked in health and social work activities is also significantly lower than in the EU, but the gap is slightly smaller. During the economic crisis, in Slovenia, employment declined only in public administration, while employment in education, human health and social work remained relatively high. In the years of the crisis (2009-2013) 30 Slovenia has lower part-time employment than the EU as a whole at all levels of education, except tertiary education (according to the UOE methodology - Unesco, OECD, Eurostat). employment growth in the EU overall slowed in all public service activities but social work, while in Slovenia it declined only in public administration, eased slightly in health, while rising in education and social work. Given the wide gap with the EU, the growth of employment in social work is justified. Moreover, public providers in this sector (old people's homes) are also mainly financed from private funds. Growth in employment in education is however much more problematic from the perspective of public finances, given that more than half of all people employed in this sector work in primary education, which is almost entirely financed from public sources. With this in mind, it is necessary to check if it is sensible to increase growth in this sector, particularly in the area of primary education. Figure 49: Shares of employment in public service activities in Slovenia and in the EU (in persons), 2013 25 20 , 15 ; 10 Slovenia Public Public Education Human Social services administration (P) health work (O-Q) (O) (Q86) (Q87-88) Source: Eurostat,SURS;calculations by IMAD.Notes:Data for Slovenia for 2013; data for pub. serv. (O-Q) in the EU-27 for 2013, by activity for 2012; the EU-27 ave. calcul. by Eurostat; shares in total employ. according to national accounts, in persons. Figure 50: Average annual employment growth in public service activities in the years before and after the beginning of the crisis, Slovenia and the EU-28 average 3 :s TS 2 -1 Public Public Education Human Social services administration (P) health work Source: Euro(sta'?,)SURS; calcu'l'aations by IMAD. Notes: Gro^lv-ih rates(aQc8c^r8ding to national accounts,in persons. In the majority of EU countries, employment in public service activities continued to rise during the economic crisis. The main reasons for further growth are: (i) in education, the growing participation in kindergartens, an increase in the available higher-education programmes and improvement in adult education and lifelong learning programmes; (ii) in health care, in addition to population ageing, particularly the rapid development of new methods of treatment and medicines, coupled with higher awareness and expectations of the population; (iii) in social work, along with increased needs for long-term care due to population ageing, assistance to the most vulnerable social groups (in particular during the crisis). By transferring certain activities to private providers and a greater role of the public-private partnership in financing certain public services, in the previous decade, a number of EU countries tried to meet part of the growing needs by increasing the supply of concessionaries and purely private providers, which, with appropriate regulation and supervision, operate in the area of public service activities. In more developed EU countries, various nongovernment organisations and societies (which are also partly supported by public and EU funds) play a significant role, particularly in the provision of social work services. Figure 51: Average annual employment growth in public service activities during the crisis (2009-2013) * i,^* f^* * r^s^* Linu^Lju* * _ Source!:Eurostat;calcUlationsbyIM/\D. Note:*2009-2012. Population projections EUR0P0P20 1 331 At the end of March, Eurostat published new population projections for the time period 2013-2080.32 They comprise data on the population by gender and age as at January 1, 2013, and assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality and net international migration. The projections were made using a convergence approach, assuming that the demographic components will converge over the long-term (the convergence year being 215033) and the differences between the countries will gradually fade out. In the following paragraphs we present the projections for Slovenia. According to EUR0P0P2013, the population of Slovenia will be increasing until 2022, after which year it will start declining to be 80 thousand lower than the present number 31 EUROpean POPulation projections 2013-based. 32 Data for all EU Member States as well as data for Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. 33 Eurostat. EUROPOP2013 - Population projections at national level (prcj_13n). Obtained at: http://epp.eurcstat.ec.eurcpa.eu/cache/ITY_ SDDS/en/prcj_13n_esms.htm#stat_prccess1396341111326. 5 0 5 4 0 Table '7: Results of the EUROPOP2013 projections 2013 Compared with 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Total population 2,058,821 27,958 28,837 19,812 11,561 -17,471 -45,133 -52,313 Men 1,019,061 17,339 19,465 13,799 10,104 -2,008 -13,186 -12,902 Women 1,039,760 10,619 9,372 6,013 1,457 -15,463 -31,947 -39,411 Women in reproductive age, aged 15-49 466,975 -36,052 -62,250 -83,840 -82,721 -76,804 -86,009 -86,518 Children, aged 0-14 298,095 22,816 -5,004 -16,216 8,706 2,381 -3,941 7,916 Youth, aged 15-29 354,841 -48,221 -22,941 -11,412 -42,439 -28,741 -18,900 -33,724 Active population, aged 20-64 1,310,114 -62,878 -149,220 -192,053 -261,499 -279,287 -252,738 -275,210 Older active population, aged 50-64 439,879 5,114 -2,296 -14,869 -92,077 -110,411 -69,539 -94,143 Older population, 65+ 352,145 72,685 165,920 225,402 265,644 249,195 205,984 212,217 Oldest population 85+ 38,735 15,660 30,234 62,459 89,449 102,913 122,879 112,826 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Old-age-dependency ratio 65+/20-64 26.9 34.1 44.6 51.7 58.9 58.3 52.8 54.5 Age-depencency ratio ((0-14)+(65+))/20-64 49.6 59.8 69.9 76.9 88.2 87.5 80.6 84.1 Ageing index, 65+/0-14 118.1 132.4 176.8 204.9 201.4 200.1 189.7 184.4 Parent support ratio, 85+/50-64 8.8 12.2 15.8 23.8 36.9 43.0 43.6 43.8 Source: Eurostat, calculations by IMAD.. in 2080. The population of Slovenia, 2,058,821 at the beginning of 2013, should decline by 50 thousand by 2080. The fertility rate is projected to rise gradually to 1.78 children per woman in reproductive age. Given a constant decline in the number of women in reproductive age, a higher fertility rate means a higher number of births per women rather than more children born. According to the provisional data by SURS, 20,976 children were born in 2013 as a whole and the average number of births over the time horizon of the projection is around 19 thousand. Annual net migration is projected to total around 4,000 persons per year, which is close to the average in '995-20'2. While in 2005-2009 net migration exceeded 10 thousand people per year, it declined below 700 per year in 2010-2013. The assumption of net migration underlying the previous projection (EUROPOP2010) was fairly problematic, as it predicted a continuation of high immigration flows from the previous period (around 10 thousand per year until 2015), which proved unrealistic already in the first year of the projection (net migration in 2010 being even slightly negative). Life expectancy will increase further, but the gap between male and female life expectancy will be narrowing. Eurostat has not released the figures for life expectancy (yet), but the mortality rates lead us to believe that by 2080 life expectancy at birth could be prolonged by around 8 years for women (2012: 82.9 years) and almost 10 years for men (2012: 77.0 years). Since 2000 it has risen by 3.8 months per year, on average, for women, and by 5 months for men. The difference between female and male life expectancy has narrowed from 7.2 to 5.9 years and is projected to decline to just over 4 years in 2080. In fifty years the older population will double relative to the working-age population. The problem of ageing is otherwise somewhat less pronounced than according to the previous projections,34 as the number of people older than 65 will be 48 thousand lower. This can be explained by the aforementioned difference between the previous and new projections in net migration at the beginning of the period; 57% of net migration is accounted for by working-age people (20-64 years), whose number is now projected to be lower than according to the previous projection, which will translate into a lower number of the older population. At the beginning of 2013 there were 26.9 people older than 65 per 100 working-age population in Slovenia, in 2060 there will be 58.3 (EUROPOP2010: 63.4), but in 2080 the figure will be slightly lower, as in 2055- Figure 52: Active population according to three projections -----Europop 2010 -Europop 2013 -IMAD 2013 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 -Q E D 1,000 900 Source: Eurostat, IMAD. 34 The 2010 and 2013 projections are otherwise not totally comparable due to methodological changes. 800 2073 the number of the older population is projected to decline further, while the number of the working-age population will increase slightly. The number of the oldest population (over 85), which was up 60% over 2000 at the beginning of 2013, will continue to grow, and its share in the total population will rise from 2% to 7%. The parent support ratio will thus increase significantly; in 2013 there were 8.8 people older than 85 years per 100 population, while by 2080 the number will rise to 43.8. When it comes to ageing, the EUROPOP2013 projection is more optimistic than the projection of IMAD.35 The EUROPOP2013 projects a higher fertility rate and higher net migration than IMAD, mainly in order to satisfy the convergence criterion. Slovenia will thus have 10% (188.818) more people in 2060 according to the EUROPOP2013 projection. The number of active people, which represent the potential for growth, will be at 13.6% (123,270), while the number of older people will be 0.3% higher, meaning that according to the EUROPOP2013 projection, the problem of ageing is somewhat less acute. However, the most recent Ageing report36 for Slovenia finds that ageing has a substantial effect on the long-term sustainability of public finances in Slovenia, as Slovenia stands out among the EU countries with a significant increase in pension expenditure. Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2013 In 2013 the number of tourists37 and their overnight stays increased due to a higher number of foreign tourists. Last year Slovenia was visited by 3.4 million tourists (domestic and foreign) and they made 9.6 million overnight stays, which is 2.6% and 0.7% more, respectively, than in the previous year. With the number of foreign tourists' arrivals and overnight stays rising for the fourth year in a row, the number of their overnight stays approaches 6 million. Foreign tourists contribute to the positive balance of tourism trade, as they account for nearly a third of all inflows from travel. Approximately half of inflows are generated by same-day visitors and a fifth by transit tourists, for whom Slovenia is not the final tourist destination. Last year the inflow from travel increased further and reached EUR 2.1 bn, the surplus over outflows totalling EUR 1.4 bn. Given the adverse economic situation and lower household spending, the number of domestic tourists and their overnight stays fell again, as did the average length of stay38. Figure 53: Travel in 2000-2013 2,250 35 IMAD. (2013). Delovna projekcija prebivalstva Slovenije (Working Projection of the Population for Slovenia). Available at http://www.umar. gov.si/fileadmin/user_upload/sporocila_za_javnost/2013/november/ projekcije_prebivalstva.pdf 36 EC. (2012). The 2012 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU27 Member States (2010-2060). Obtained at: http://ec.europa. eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2012/2012-ageing-report_en.htm. 37 I.e. the number of tourist arrivals, as tourists are registered on their arrival to any tourist accommodation where they spend the night. It can 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 -Foreign currency inflows -Foreign currency outflow ^^ 1 1 '' •1........... i 1 Figure 54: Tourist overnight stays by type of resort, 2013 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Domestic tourists Foreign toursists E E Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Last year domestic tourists again generated the highest share of their overnight stays in health (spa), seaside and mountain resorts. The number of overnight stays declined relative to 2012 in all types of resorts except Ljubljana, which otherwise accounts for only 1% of overnight stays by Slovenian tourists. The highest share of overnight stays by domestic tourists was in health resorts, notably in the municipalities of Brežice and Podčetrtek. Mountain resorts accounted for around a fifth of all overnight stays, the number being highest again in Kranjska Gora, Bohinj and Bovec. Among other municipalities, the highest number of overnight stays by domestic tourists was recorded in Ljutomer, Črnomelj, Kočevje and Metlika. therefore happen that their registration in a place/country is multiplied. 38 Measured by the average number of overnight stays per tourist. 750 500 Foreign tourists again spent the highest number of nights in mountain and health resorts (together a half), followed by seaside resorts and Ljubljana. Relative to 2012, the number of overnight stays increased the most (by a tenth) in Ljubljana; an increase over the previous year was recorded in all months of 2013. Growth in the number of nights spent in Ljubljana was recorded for tourists from all of the most important countries for Slovenia's tourism, most notably tourists from Russia (by 40.6%), Belgium (16.0%) and the United Kingdom (11.7%). The number of nights spent in mountain resorts also rose, by 7%, high growth being generated by tourists from the Netherlands, United Kingdom, Belgium and Germany, i.e. those who tend to spend the most nights precisely in mountain resorts. The number of overnight stays in seaside resorts remained almost unchanged from the previous year; the number of overnight stays by Italian, Austrian and German tourists declined, but there were more guests from Russia. While increasing in other municipalities, the number of nights spent by Russian tourists declined sharply in health resorts, but health resorts nevertheless still recorded the highest number of their overnight stays. As the number of Italian tourists also fell, foreign overnight stays in health resorts declined relative to 2012. After strong growth in 2012, mainly as a result of the increase in Maribor, the European capital of culture in 2012, the number of overnight stays in urban municipalities declined in 2013 but was still higher than in 2011. Figure 55: Overnight stays by foreign tourists, 2013 ■ Share (left axis) ■ Growth (right axis) 16 14 12 10 . 8 6 4 2 0 32 28 24 20 16 12 # jz 8 4 0 -4 -8 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Social progress index The Social Progress Index,39 published for the first time in 2014, ranks Slovenia 18th among 132 countries surveyed. The concept of social progress is defined as the capacity of a society to meet the basic human needs of its citizens, establish the building blocks that allow citizens and communities to enhance and sustain the quality of their lives, and create the conditions for all individuals to reach their full potential. The social progress index is composed of three overall dimensions (basic human needs, foundations of wellbeing and opportunity). Each of these dimensions is broken down into four components, which together include 54 indicators. The decisive criteria in the selection of indicators were internal validity and public availability (transparency). The indicators are aggregated into components based on factor analysis. An average of four components represents a dimension, while an average of the three dimensions is the social progress index score.40 The index has been designed to help policy makers (civil society, politicians and investors) in countries at all levels of development make better choices in the area of social progress and economic performance. From this aspect, the calculations for individual components are particularly relevant, especially for the components in the first two dimensions, which rely on objective indicators. They make it easier to decide, for example, between investment and/or living in a safe and healthy environment with the necessary infrastructure and facilities and adequately educated workforce. The third dimension (opportunity) is based on opinion indicators, which indicate how a country takes care of its human, environmental, cultural and social capital of the first two dimensions, or how successful it is in their preservation and development. This dimension is very important, but the quality and the choice of the included indicators are questionable. A special (methodological) feature of the social progress index is that it measures progress without economic indicators. It includes exclusively social and environmental indicators in their output version, meaning that it measures the situation, i.e. outcomes, not how much effort is made nor how much the country spends on certain areas. In the future this could enable more scientific analysis of the relationship (causation/ correlation) between social and economic (GDP) progress and subjective well-being. The social progress index allows us, for the first time, to evaluate the effectiveness with which a country's economic success is turned into social success, and vice versa. The social progress index is thus also part of the "beyond GDP" paradigm, which tries to understand development in a broader sense than just 39 Social Progress Index. See http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/ data/spi. 40 The final selection of indicators was made on the basis of tests and experts' comments on the beta version of the Social Progress index released in 2013. For more on the methodology see Social Progress Index 2014 Methodological Report. Table 18: Composition of the Social Progress Index and detailed results for Slovenia1 Social Progress Index 1002 823 184 T Basic human needs 100 92 15 Foundations of wellbeing 100 84 12 Opportunity 100 69 25 i ^^ i Nutrition and basic medical care 100 98 11 Access to basic knowledge 100 98 22 Personal rights 100 81 24 Undernourishment 5 less than 0.5 1 Adult literacy rate 100 100 13 Political rights 1 1 1 Depth of food deficit 0 6 23 Primary school enrolment 100 97 37 Freedom of speech 2 1 14 Maternal mortality rate 0 12 29 Lower secondary school enrolment 100 96 65 Freedom of assembly/ associations 2 2 1 Stillbirth rate (deaths/1,000 live births) 0 3 6 Upper secondary school enrolment 100 100 27 Freedom of movement 4 4 1 Child mortality rate (children under 5 years) 0 3 6 Gender parity in secondary enrolment 1 1 61 Private property rights 100 60 29 Deaths from infectious diseases 0 12 13 Access to information and communications 100 80 26 Personal freedom and choice 100 82 21 Water and sanitation 100 100 19 Mobile telephone subscriptions 100 109 1 Freedom over life choices 100 89 16 Access to piped water 100 100 17 Internet users 100 70 29 Freedom of religion 4 4 1 Rural vs. Urban access to improved water source 0 0.4 28 Press Freedom Index / 21 21 Modern slavery, human trafficking, child marriage 1 9.8 82 Access to improved sanitation facilities 100 100 1 Health and wellness 100 76 49 Satisfied demand for contraception 100 91 20 Shelter 100 79 32 Life expectancy 85 80 23 Corruption 100 57 28 Availability of affordable housing 100 24 117 Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 0 14 27 Tolerance and inclusion 100 64 27 Access to electricity 100 100 1 Obesity rate 0 27 115 Women treated with respect 100 65 55 Quality of electricity supply 7 6.4 15 Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 0 10 46 Tolerance to immigrants 100 56 66 Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 3 5.5 1 Suicide rate 0 18 116 Tolerance to homosexuals 100 38 39 Personal safety 100 91 10 Ecosystem sustainability 100 82 2 Discrimination and violence against minorities 1 3.3 9 Homicide rate 1 1 1 Greenhouse gas emissions 4 385 2 Religious tolerance 4 3 38 Level of violent crime 1 1 1 Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 0 0 11 Community safety net 100 92 17 Perceived criminality 1 2 2 Biodiversity and habitat 100 100 1 Access to advanced education 100 51 38 Political terror 1 1 1 Years of tertiary schooling 2 0.5 43 Traffic deaths 0 7.2 2 Women's average years in school 16 13 26 Inequality in the attainment of education 0 0 9 Number of globally ranked universities 5 0 49 Note: 1For more see Social Progress Index 2014 - Methodological report at http://www.socialprogressimperative.org/publications. 2First column maximum score; 3Second column score for Slovenia, 4third column Slovenia's rank among 132 countries. as GDP-based social processes; similar to the twenty years old Human Development Index (HDI) developed by the United Nations; the Happy Planet Index (HPI) developed in mid-1990s by the New Economic Foundation (NEF); the OECD Better Life Index (BLI); the Eurobarometer Social Climate Index and a range of other less known indices. The first three indices (SPI, HDI and HPI) cover and are useful for all, reach and poor, developed and undeveloped, countries. The top three countries in the world in terms of social progress are New Zealand, Switzerland and Iceland, three countries that are relatively small in terms of populations. They are followed by 17 EU countries, together with Table 19. Slovenia's ranking among 25 EU Member States in terms of Social Progress Index and its dimensions (in absolute and relative terms) Social Progress Index Social Progress Index rank Basic human needs score Basic human needs rank Foundations of wellbeing score Foundations of wellbeing rank Opportunity score Opportunity rank Austria 85.11 5 94.57 4 86.35 2 74.42 11 Belgium 82.63 9 92.74 8 78.81 15 76.34 7 Bulgaria 70.24 24 82.01 23 71.72 25 56.98 23 Croatia 73.31 23 88.16 16 76.87 19 54.88 25 Czech Republic 80.41 15 91.77 11 83.26 9 66.21 17 Denmark 86.55 4 95.73 1 84.82 4 79.10 6 Estonia 81.28 11 87.13 17 84.39 6 72.32 13 Finland 86.91 3 94.63 2 84.17 7 81.92 4 France 81.11 12 91.23 12 79.37 13 72.72 12 Germany 84.61 6 93.08 7 84.96 3 75.81 8 Grčija 73.43 22 86.99 18 74.85 22 58.45 22 Hungary 73.87 20 86.24 20 71.91 24 63.46 18 Ireland 84.05 8 93.63 6 75.89 21 82.63 1 Italy 76.93 18 86.73 19 77.48 17 66.58 15 Latvia 73.91 19 82.77 22 79.11 14 59.85 21 Lithuania 73.76 21 81.47 24 77.96 16 61.84 20 Netherlands 87.37 1 93.91 5 87.56 1 80.63 5 Poland 77.44 17 84.72 21 81.10 11 66.50 16 Portugal 80.49 14 90.93 13 76.11 20 74.43 10 Romania 67.72 25 73.71 25 74.54 23 54.91 24 Slovakia 78.93 16 90.49 14 83.25 10 63.04 19 Slovenia 81.65 10 92.05 9 83.60 8 69.30 14 Spain 80.77 13 90.22 15 76.90 18 75.19 9 Sweden 87.08 2 94.59 3 84.71 5 81.95 3 United Kingdom 84.56 7 91.90 10 79.47 12 82.29 2 Note: The highest possible dimension and overall Social Progress Index scores are 100. Canada, Australia and the US. The best performing country among the 25 EU countries included in the survey41 is the Netherlands, while the worst performing country is Romania. Slovenia is ranked 10'h. Slovenia is ranked highest in the foundations of wellbeing dimension. It is also relatively high on the basic human needs dimension, while it fares worse in the opportunity dimension. Among the components, Slovenia stands out in a positive way on ecosystem sustainability, but scores low on health and wellness. The latter includes two of the three worst indicators for Slovenia, suicide rate and obesity rate. The third worse indicator, which also ranks Slovenia in the second hundredth of the countries surveyed, is availability of affordable housing. On the other hand, Slovenia is among the top ranking countries on 13 indicators: absence of undernourishment, access to improved sanitation facilities, access to electricity, indoor air pollution attributable deaths, homicide rate, level of violent crime, political terror, mobile telephone subscriptions, biodiversity and habitat, political rights, freedom of assembly/association, freedom of speech, freedom of religion. 41 Excluding the smallest EU countries: Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg. X "ö C O a a (O "iS u (O (O MAIN INDICATORS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spring forecast 2014 GDP (real growth rates, in %) -7.9 1.3 0.7 -2.5 -1.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 35,420 35,485 36,150 35,319 35,275 35,634 36,255 37,219 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,349 17,320 17,610 17,172 17,128 17,270 17,551 18,001 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,200 20,600 21,200 21,400 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 86 84 84 84 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 34,823 35,028 35,759 34,931 35,069 34,916 35,353 36,253 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 34,519 34,875 35,680 34,721 34,796 35,004 35,396 36,149 Rate of registered unemployment 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.6 13.5 13.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 10.2 10.0 9.7 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) -6.2 3.5 2.4 -1.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 Inflation,2 year average 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.3 1.1 1.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.6 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -16.1 10.2 7.0 0.6 2.9 4.2 4.8 5.2 Exports of goods -16.6 12.0 8.2 -0.1 2.9 4.6 5.2 5.5 Exports of services -14.0 3.5 1.9 3.7 2.6 2.6 3.3 4.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) -19.2 7.4 5.6 -4.7 1.3 3.5 5.2 5.3 Imports of goods -20.2 8.3 6.6 -5.1 1.5 3.6 5.5 5.6 Imports of services -12.4 2.6 -0.6 -2.2 -0.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -173 -50 146 1,159 2,279 2,442 2,338 2,328 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.5 -0.1 0.4 3.3 6.5 6.9 6.4 6.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 40,318 40,723 40,100 40,849 39,566 42.133* As a per cent share relative to GDP 113.8 114.8 110.9 115.7 112.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.365 1.366 1.366 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.1 1.5 0.8 -4.8 -2.7 -0.4 0.7 1.8 As a % of GDP4 54.8 56.4 56.8 56.3 56.0 55.2 55.1 55.3 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.5 1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 -0.9 -0.9 As a % of GDP4 20.2 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.2 19.9 19.5 19.1 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -23.8 -15.3 -5.5 -8.2 0.2 -0.5 1.0 0.0 As a % of GDP4 23.1 19.7 18.6 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.8 17.7 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2014). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End February 2014. PRODUCTION 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 3 4 5 6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 1.3 -1.1 -0.6 -3.8 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 -2.3 -2.5 -1.4 -0.7 2.0 -3.6 2.2 -3.9 -2.6 B Mining and quarrying -7.9 -7.4 1.3 -8.7 -10.2 -2.3 -3.5 -13.3 6.7 -9.6 -7.1 16.8 -22.0 -8.2 9.8 -7.0 C Manufacturing 1.1 -2.3 -1.2 -4.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.1 -3.1 -3.7 -1.7 -1.0 1.7 -4.2 1.9 -5.5 -4.9 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 5.0 10.5 3.9 4.0 8.3 12.7 16.1 6.1 7.0 1.9 3.2 3.2 5.3 5.6 9.4 24.0 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -24.8 -16.8 -2.6 -19.1 -15.3 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.5 -10.5 -3.4 22.3 -3.1 -13.5 -23.8 -11.7 Buildings -39.7 -17.3 -20.4 -35.9 -13.0 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -40.9 -25.1 -16.6 5.1 27.6 -7.2 -15.6 4.4 Civil engineering -15.3 -16.6 6.2 -10.1 -21.2 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.5 -2.6 1.7 26.5 -22.0 -18.6 -26.5 -17.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 3.2 -3.4 0.1 11.7 6.0 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 -2.9 -1.8 3.9 1.8 Tonne-km in rail transport 9.7 -7.5 9.5 -1.6 -8.7 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.1 0.4 13.4 24.9 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.3 -3.6 -1.0 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 -4.9 -5.6 -7.1 2.1 -2.2 3.1 -1.8 -4.0 -5.2 -3.7 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 -2.2 -3.7 0.2 2.5 -2.7 -2.7 -5.8 -7.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -3.1 -1.6 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 7.0 -6.3 4.7 -2.0 -2.8 -7.2 -10.1 -5.3 -7.2 11.1 3.4 11.5 -4.7 -5.0 -8.8 -7.7 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 6.0 0.8 -0.2 3.4 3.8 -0.6 1.4 -1.3 -5.1 1.1 -1.4 4.5 -0.8 0.0 0.4 -2.2 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 5.3 1.2 0.3 3.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 -1.5 2.9 0.6 2.4 -0.9 7.9 -1.9 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 0.5 -4.9 -3.4 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 2.8 -14.3 -1.6 0.9 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 9.1 5.6 2.8 5.5 2.0 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 0.9 5.6 0.7 1.9 9.4 14.1 -3.7 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 3.7 -1.1 -1.4 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 -3.7 -6.1 -3.0 0.6 3.1 1.4 -0.9 2.6 -0.1 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.9 480.4 478.4 139.5 108.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 111.1 123.2 139.6 39.0 37.0 38.3 35.1 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -7 -17 -13 -10 -12 -16 -19 -20 -15 -14 -12 -12 -12 -16 -15 -18 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 -11 -6 -7 -6 -11 -14 -13 -9 -6 -4 -3 -8 -10 -10 -13 - in construction -46 -41 -22 -42 -41 -44 -39 -39 -31 -22 -18 -18 -40 -45 -44 -43 - in services 1 -12 -12 -3 -8 -8 -14 -17 -12 -12 -11 -11 -5 -8 -7 -10 - in retail trade 8 2 2 14 5 4 1 -4 -3 2 6 1 5 8 1 4 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -35 -33 -23 -27 -36 -39 -36 -29 -34 -34 -35 -27 -39 -33 -36 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2012 2013 2014 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 3.6 3.1 -6.7 5.2 -4.9 -7.5 0.1 -0.6 -6.4 2.9 -2.2 -4.8 1.6 -5.4 1.2 -1.0 0.2 8.1 1.7 0.3 - -5.7 1.4 -5.8 1.2 -17.9 -24.9 -11.6 9.9 23.2 -4.0 -11.0 -13.7 2.4 -1.1 -21.7 6.0 74.1 31.1 -0.8 1.8 1.6 -8.4 4.7 -5.5 -9.1 -1.0 -0.8 -8.6 2.7 -2.5 -5.1 1.5 -6.4 1.1 -1.7 0.3 7.8 1.8 0.2 22.6 16.2 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 11.3 0.0 10.2 6.1 0.7 -0.9 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.1 -1.3 5.6 -2.5 1.7 - -19.6 -14.4 -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 -23.2 -14.0 -31.7 -18.7 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 -5.3 -5.9 27.9 31.4 5.6 39.3 33.1 -23.9 -11.9 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 -38.2 -28.0 -50.1 -36.2 -24.2 -14.1 -19.1 -19.6 -11.4 10.8 3.0 0.7 8.4 5.2 -17.1 -15.7 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 -8.6 -0.6 -13.6 -6.3 -5.9 3.5 11.0 2.2 -5.5 31.5 41.5 4.8 55.6 47.8 - - - - - - - - - - -0.6 -3.7 -10.3 -3.4 -5.4 -7.9 -4.9 -8.6 -7.7 2.7 1.2 2.5 -4.4 -3.4 1.3 2.2 2.7 4.5 2.5 2.2 - -0.6 -0.8 -6.6 -4.1 -5.8 -7.4 -4.4 -9.4 -7.2 -1.8 -2.0 -4.0 -5.2 -4.6 -4.0 -1.0 -1.4 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.6 -10.8 -17.9 -2.1 -4.5 -9.2 -5.7 -7.4 -8.5 11.3 6.8 15.4 -2.7 -0.2 14.0 8.4 10.3 16.0 9.1 7.1 7.2 2.8 -5.4 4.9 -2.1 -6.5 1.6 -5.6 -10.9 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 0.7 -4.6 -0.2 2.2 1.6 9.9 4.5 4.8 1.3 2.5 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 -10.5 0.2 0.6 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 3.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 -3.2 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 - -9.9 -4.1 -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 0.7 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 -2.3 -0.9 -6.9 -5.7 8.4 6.3 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 -10.8 2.5 9.3 -15.0 13.3 2.6 4.8 5.8 6.4 3.8 -4.0 1.1 4.3 -0.2 1.1 0.6 -2.9 -4.2 -0.3 -6.6 -7.4 -3.5 -7.3 -2.7 -3.1 -3.3 0.9 -0.5 1.4 4.1 1.0 4.3 2.2 4.1 47.2 37.9 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 33.9 32.2 38.4 37.5 38.7 34.9 45.1 37.1 41.0 49.3 41.7 48.5 38.4 36.0 - - -18 -19 -21 -22 -21 -17 -16 -15 -13 -14 -15 -13 -13 -12 -12 -13 -12 -12 -9 -9 -6 -5 -12 -15 -16 -15 -14 -10 -11 -8 -8 -9 -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 1 1 -40 -37 -41 -42 -40 -35 -30 -31 -32 -26 -20 -20 -22 -15 -16 -17 -17 -20 -16 -18 -9 -16 -11 -14 -16 -19 -19 -14 -13 -13 -11 -9 -14 -14 -11 -9 -13 -13 -10 -11 -5 -6 -2 4 -2 -2 8 -7 -5 0 2 -9 -2 -6 -5 16 16 0 3 13 -6 -3 9 2 2 2 -36 -36 -45 -38 -37 -34 -31 -31 -26 -27 -37 -37 -37 -33 -31 -35 -35 -34 -30 -30 -28 -29 LABOUR MARKET 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 3 4 5 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 934.7 920.2 913.4 933.3 926.6 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 925.4 926.0 923.7 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 824.0 810.0 793.6 821.7 812.7 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 795.0 794.4 795.8 814.5 816.9 816.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.8 37.0 38.2 38.0 35.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 35.3 37.7 37.8 In industry, construction 272.9 263.1 252.2 271.0 265.4 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 252.5 253.5 252.9 266.1 266.6 266.6 Of which: in manufacturing 184.8 182.9 177.7 186.2 184.6 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 177.6 177.5 177.8 184.6 184.4 184.2 in construction 67.8 59.8 54.3 64.4 60.5 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 61.0 61.7 61.8 In services 512.3 510.0 503.2 512.7 512.1 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 513.1 512.6 512.5 Of which: in public administration 51.4 50.7 49.1 51.3 50.9 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 49.3 49.1 48.9 50.9 51.1 51.2 in education, health-services, social work 118.8 120.9 121.0 120.1 120.7 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 121.1 120.5 121.6 121.5 121.6 121.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 729.1 717.0 698.7 727.4 720.9 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 700.0 699.6 699.2 722.7 723.0 723.1 In enterprises and organisations 671.8 662.6 647.6 670.7 666.4 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 648.5 647.9 648.1 667.9 667.7 667.7 By those self-employed 57.2 54.5 51.1 56.6 54.5 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 51.5 51.7 51.1 54.8 55.3 55.4 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 93.0 94.9 94.4 91.8 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 95.0 94.7 96.6 91.8 93.9 93.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.7 110.2 119.8 111.6 114.0 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 118.8 116.1 120.7 110.9 109.1 106.8 Female 52.1 52.2 57.4 53.3 53.2 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 56.7 57.0 58.9 52.0 51.7 50.9 By age: under 26 12.9 11.9 13.8 13.4 12.7 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 12.3 15.6 12.0 11.4 10.7 aged over 50 39.0 38.2 38.9 38.2 39.2 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.3 38.1 37.3 38.6 38.5 38.1 Osnovnošolska izobrazba ali manj 34.1 33.3 34.2 33.9 35.2 32.9 31.8 33.2 36.5 34.1 32.6 33.6 34.4 33.6 32.8 For more than 1 year 50.2 55.2 54.9 53.8 57.2 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 54.3 55.0 55.7 56.3 55.4 55.0 Those receiving benefits 36.3 33.9 33.0 34.4 37.8 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 33.7 30.3 28.7 36.7 34.2 33.4 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.8 12.0 13.1 12.0 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 12.8 13.2 12.0 11.8 11.6 Male 11.4 11.5 12.5 11.3 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 12.5 11.9 12.4 11.6 11.3 11.0 Female 12.4 12.6 13.8 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.1 12.5 12.4 12.2 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 2.7 5.3 6.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 -4.2 -1.8 -2.3 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.4 16.3 19.1 6.5 2.4 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 2.6 3.4 9.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 Redundancies 82.2 90.3 88.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 18.5 19.6 23.5 5.9 6.5 5.8 Registered unemployed who found employment 61.0 58.3 65.1 12.9 17.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 18.1 15.8 14.1 7.1 5.5 4.7 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 32.8 43.1 37.3 10.2 9.6 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 3.7 3.5 4.1 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 35.6 33.9 30.5 34.3 34.2 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 31.7 29.8 27.8 34.2 34.7 34.4 As % of labour force 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2012 2013 2014 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 921.3 917.4 914.5 913.8 918.0 916.5 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 911.5 909.8 910.2 916.7 917.5 915.3 911.4 913.0 815.7 810.5 808.4 808.3 807.1 805.0 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 793.0 795.4 796.5 794.4 793.2 795.5 798.0 798.2 791.3 781.6 783.3 37.9 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 38.1 38.1 38.1 38.5 38.4 38.4 31.6 31.7 265.7 264.0 263.2 262.2 261.1 259.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 251.6 252.6 253.1 253.4 253.1 254.0 254.8 254.6 249.3 248.3 248.5 183.8 182.9 182.5 182.1 181.8 181.2 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 177.5 177.7 177.7 177.6 177.3 177.6 178.1 178.3 177.0 177.1 177.4 61.4 60.5 60.2 59.6 59.0 58.1 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.2 55.5 55.5 56.0 56.1 55.8 52.0 51.1 50.7 512.1 509.3 507.9 508.5 508.5 508.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 502.6 503.8 504.3 502.9 502.0 503.4 504.7 505.3 503.7 501.7 503.1 51.2 50.8 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.2 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 49.1 49.2 48.9 48.8 49.0 48.9 48.6 48.7 121.4 120.3 119.8 120.8 121.1 121.3 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 120.9 121.2 121.3 120.3 120.0 121.2 121.6 121.8 121.3 121.1 121.7 722.1 717.7 715.6 715.2 713.7 711.6 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 698.2 700.3 701.5 699.8 698.6 700.5 701.7 701.5 694.4 691.5 693.0 666.7 662.8 660.9 660.5 659.2 657.7 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 647.0 648.7 649.7 648.0 647.0 648.6 649.7 649.9 644.8 643.1 644.8 55.3 55.0 54.7 54.7 54.5 53.9 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 51.1 51.5 51.8 51.8 51.6 51.9 52.0 51.7 49.6 48.5 48.2 93.6 92.8 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.4 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.0 94.6 94.6 95.0 96.3 96.7 97.0 90.1 90.3 105.6 106.9 106.1 105.4 110.9 111.5 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 117.1 116.6 114.7 118.7 119.3 124.0 129.8 129.8 50.5 51.2 50.9 50.5 53.3 53.3 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 57.3 56.7 56.2 57.3 57.4 56.5 58.5 58.7 59.4 61.4 61.2 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.3 37.7 37.9 37.4 37.1 37.0 37.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.5 39.5 38.9 38.6 38.3 37.5 37.0 36.8 37.9 39.2 39.1 32.3 32.1 31.7 31.5 32.2 32.5 35.0 36.7 36.8 35.9 35.1 34.0 33.2 32.9 32.7 32.3 32.7 33.0 35.2 36.5 36.9 54.7 54.6 54.6 54.3 54.3 53.6 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.6 54.4 53.9 54.7 54.5 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7 55.7 31.9 32.1 31.4 31.2 31.5 31.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 35.8 33.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 29.4 28.2 28.0 29.9 33.8 33.0 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 12.6 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.2 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.7 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.6 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.9 14.8 -1.2 1.3 -0.8 -0.6 5.4 0.6 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.9 4.1 0.6 4.7 5.8 -0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.5 6.0 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 5.6 8.0 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.2 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 7.7 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.0 9.3 13.1 6.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.3 5.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 5.2 3.5 6.2 6.0 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.1 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.4 29.8 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.4 26.3 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 3 4 5 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 2.0 0.1 -0.2 1.1 1.6 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3.1 -1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 1.1 0.0 3.0 -2.1 -0.1 -0.5 B Mining and quarrying 3.8 3.7 -2.0 5.9 8.4 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 3.8 4.0 14.9 C Manufacturing 3.9 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 1.9 2.7 3.9 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2.3 3.3 3.0 -0.5 5.6 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 2.8 3.6 -0.1 3.6 5.2 6.5 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities -0.1 0.1 0.7 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 F Constrution 2.0 -2.5 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 -3.1 -1.3 -0.4 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2.8 0.8 0.4 3.0 2.1 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.0 2.9 1.8 H Transportation and storage 2.7 -0.4 -0.2 1.6 2.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 2.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 -1.7 -1.4 0.5 J Information and communication 0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -0.2 0.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 0.5 2.3 1.7 K Financial and insurance activities 0.6 1.1 0.2 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 3.8 -0.4 -4.4 L Real estate activities 2.9 -0.5 -0.3 1.6 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -1.5 -0.1 -1.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities -0.4 -1.1 -2.4 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 N Administrative and support service activities 3.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 3.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 2.0 -0.2 1.7 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 0.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 P Education 0.2 -3.3 -3.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 Q Human health and social work activities -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 R Arts, entertainment and recreation -0.7 -2.8 -3.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 1.3 -0.9 0.0 S Other service activities 0.9 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 0.0 -0.6 0.1 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -0.1 -1.2 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 Real (deflator HICP) -1.0 -1.1 1.3 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.8 2.2 1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 Real (deflator ULC) -2.3 -3.0 -1.6 -2.6 -2.0 -3.3 -3.7 -2.8 -2.2 -1.3 -1.0 -2.0 USD/EUR 1.3917 1.2856 1.3282 1.3480 1.3110 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.3201 1.3162 1.2789 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2012 2013 2014 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.6 -2.5 1.3 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 -3.6 1.5 0.9 1.9 6.2 -1.7 2.3 13.2 1.4 5.4 -0.2 1.5 1.7 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 -5.4 -10.3 -4.8 -1.8 -4.9 -1.8 5.1 -13.0 3.3 -8.1 19.1 1.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.5 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.0 3.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 5.3 0.3 4.0 2.6 8.3 7.8 -6.6 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 6.6 0.7 1.3 10.0 3.1 -2.1 7.4 -0.9 -5.9 1.8 11.9 -2.5 4.0 -0.1 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.5 -6.6 -1.4 -1.9 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 -0.9 1.1 -1.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -1.4 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 -1.9 -6.3 -1.3 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.4 1.7 0.3 -4.7 2.5 -2.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.1 1.4 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 -0.8 -1.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 3.5 -4.0 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 3.5 -0.1 4.0 -1.4 1.0 2.7 -3.0 1.5 0.3 0.3 -2.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.3 -2.4 0.3 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.1 -0.3 3.2 3.8 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.2 -5.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 -3.5 -4.1 -3.6 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 -4.0 -3.2 -4.2 -0.7 -2.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.8 -1.2 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -1.6 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.7 -1.4 -1.6 -1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.7 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.0 1.2526 1.2288 1.2400 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 1.3080 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 1.3493 1.3704 1.361 1.3659 PRICES 2011 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 2.6 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.4 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 4.0 4.7 4.3 3.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 5.7 6.5 7.0 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 2.7 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.1 Clothing and footwear -1.5 -0.2 0.2 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 0.2 3.0 1.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.6 3.8 3.1 4.9 4.2 4.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 1.4 4.7 4.0 3.7 4.9 Furnishings, household equipment 2.7 0.1 -1.2 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.6 0.4 -0.5 -0.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 Transport 1.0 3.3 0.3 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 3.3 4.1 2.8 2.6 Communications 1.2 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 Recreation and culture -1.5 1.4 0.1 2.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 Education 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.1 1.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Catering services -6.8 4.5 6.5 2.3 2.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 7.0 1.6 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.5 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 HCPI 2.1 2.8 1.9 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 2.4 2.9 2.4 2.4 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.3 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.5 0.9 0.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 Domestic market 3.8 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 Non-domestic market 5.3 0.7 -0.2 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 euro area 6.1 0.1 -0.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 non-euro area 3.6 2.0 0.3 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.1 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 Import price indices 5.4 1.9 -0.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.2 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 10.9 12.7 0.2 12.1 12.5 14.5 11.6 5.6 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.6 13.8 14.7 11.8 10.9 Oil products 11.9 13.0 1.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.9 14.2 15.3 11.9 10.8 Transport & communications 1.1 1.6 11.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.6 8.6 17.3 10.9 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other controlled prices 0.0 -0.6 -1.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 2.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Direct control - total 2.8 9.2 1.2 7.3 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.3 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -1.0 10.6 11.1 9.0 8.5 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2012 2013 2014 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 7.4 7.1 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 2.5 3.9 4.2 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 2.4 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.2 -3.1 -4.4 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 5.9 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 1.4 0.9 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 -3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 10.1 14.6 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 -3.8 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.6 9.2 14.4 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 1.6 0.8 -2.5 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 8.0 8.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.8 0.8 3.7 1.4 1.4 7.9 11.0 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 -1.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q^ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 146 1,159 2,224 0 96 262 320 482 484 683 616 440 -76 195 89 23 Goods1 -957 -110 632 -356 -149 -45 60 24 131 236 246 19 -39 4 7 -31 Exports 21,450 21,631 22,105 5,403 5,364 5,559 5,283 5,424 5,390 5,644 5,444 5,626 1,726 1,992 1,807 1,862 Imports 22,407 21,741 21,473 5,758 5,514 5,604 5,223 5,400 5,259 5,408 5,199 5,607 1,765 1,988 1,800 1,892 Services 1,476 1,803 2,004 375 418 444 528 414 503 540 572 388 106 161 148 156 Exports 4,842 5,166 5,422 1,217 1,118 1,237 1,502 1,310 1,209 1,325 1,558 1,330 325 417 392 410 Imports 3,365 3,363 3,418 841 700 793 974 896 706 785 985 942 219 256 244 254 Income -524 -552 -435 -81 -145 -168 -198 -42 -72 -115 -120 -128 -41 -68 -44 -99 Receipts 936 699 857 259 131 188 174 206 225 206 214 213 42 48 54 63 Expenditure 1,460 1,251 1,292 340 276 356 372 247 296 320 334 342 83 116 98 162 Current transfers 151 18 23 62 -28 31 -70 86 -79 22 -82 161 -101 98 -23 -3 Receipts 1,404 1,410 1,452 371 348 366 285 411 333 356 294 469 68 207 97 113 Expenditure 1,253 1,392 1,429 310 377 336 355 325 412 334 375 308 169 110 120 116 Capital and financial account -474 -1,206 -2,979 -175 67 -249 -540 -484 -879 -777 -847 -476 152 -172 -168 -162 Capital account -85 -92 -37 -80 -24 11 -30 -49 -5 -40 -31 39 -6 -14 24 5 Financial account -389 -1,114 -2,942 -94 91 -260 -511 -434 -874 -737 -816 -515 158 -158 -193 -167 Direct investment 633 166 -555 151 146 98 84 -162 -62 -673 -16 196 77 123 -92 144 Domestic abroad -85 212 -44 -156 41 127 39 5 -110 51 -2 16 17 36 -6 53 Foreign in Slovenia 718 -46 -511 307 105 -29 45 -167 48 -725 -14 180 60 87 -86 91 Portfolio investment 1,839 -218 3,981 -20 -923 124 -982 1,564 131 2,100 -424 2,173 -820 -324 76 133 Financial derivatives -155 -203 -453 -24 -23 -21 -31 -129 23 -224 -120 -133 9 -31 -6 -7 Other investment -2,777 -890 -5,910 -221 851 -455 439 -1,726 -1,033 -1,920 -174 -2,782 834 27 -171 -435 Assets -1,490 -1,474 -1,907 567 -1,466 -95 205 -118 -1,284 -633 141 -131 102 -956 -383 119 Commercial credits -49 65 -35 316 -347 -35 109 339 -364 -50 91 288 -85 -176 24 -32 Loans -55 -319 -20 19 3 -95 84 -310 25 -178 89 43 128 -147 -153 -28 Currency and deposits -1,341 -1,177 -1,699 249 -1,131 11 -33 -24 -928 -332 -46 -393 42 -629 -258 164 Other assets -46 -45 -153 -18 10 24 45 -124 -17 -73 7 -69 17 -4 4 15 Liabilities -1,287 584 -4,003 -788 2,317 -359 234 -1,608 251 -1,287 -315 -2,651 732 983 212 -554 Commercial credits 107 265 -146 17 161 136 -96 63 -300 93 -200 260 147 93 -16 -72 Loans -1,234 -729 441 -752 -121 -223 -178 -208 374 602 -530 -6 -211 14 103 -213 Deposits -169 1,026 -4,246 -57 2,287 -288 530 -1,503 188 -1,981 429 -2,883 833 904 115 -278 Other liabilities 9 23 -52 3 -11 17 -22 39 -12 -2 -15 -23 -36 -29 10 9 International reserves2 72 31 -5 19 39 -6 -21 19 67 -19 -83 30 59 48 0 -2 Statistical error 328 47 756 174 -163 -13 220 2 395 94 231 36 -76 -23 80 139 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,042 2,112 2,136 540 477 569 514 552 517 525 522 572 159 175 183 189 Intermediate goods 12,008 12,138 12,522 2,931 3,063 3,101 3,019 2,955 3,078 3,182 3,139 3,123 996 1,110 1,009 1,049 Consumer goods 6,950 6,811 6,970 1,803 1,685 1,734 1,604 1,788 1,673 1,817 1,668 1,811 528 657 559 572 Import of investment goods 2,505 2,402 2,558 736 562 584 570 687 645 665 562 686 159 228 186 201 Intermediate goods 14,107 14,005 13,690 3,490 3,636 3,578 3,410 3,382 3,477 3,462 3,297 3,454 1,171 1,294 1,177 1,209 Consumer goods 5,943 5,671 5,949 1,524 1,435 1,400 1,350 1,486 1,394 1,488 1,480 1,587 456 533 449 475 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2012 2013 2014 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 150 59 61 200 196 230 56 64 80 340 298 133 252 251 161 204 168 57 216 92 22 -21 48 -73 84 43 98 -117 -50 58 124 135 -21 122 139 16 91 62 -13 -29 72 48 1,891 1,829 1,606 1,848 1,961 1,926 1,537 1,718 1,737 1,935 1,963 1,844 1,837 1,960 1,554 1,930 2,034 1,911 1,681 1,852 1,819 1,912 1,781 1,679 1,764 1,918 1,828 1,654 1,768 1,680 1,811 1,828 1,866 1,715 1,821 1,538 1,839 1,973 1,924 1,710 1,779 1,771 140 147 189 192 183 145 86 170 122 212 173 186 181 199 208 165 151 124 114 117 111 434 512 512 477 467 415 427 391 354 464 433 438 455 532 537 488 456 411 463 383 348 295 366 323 285 284 270 341 221 232 253 259 251 274 333 329 324 306 287 349 266 237 -25 -110 -32 -56 -8 -14 -19 -25 -24 -23 -30 -44 -41 -39 -40 -41 -44 -42 -42 -47 -58 72 54 55 65 58 59 88 75 73 77 69 69 68 75 69 70 70 69 74 67 64 97 164 87 121 66 73 108 100 97 100 99 112 109 113 109 111 114 112 116 113 122 56 -25 -24 -21 -21 1 106 -30 -76 27 21 11 -10 -48 -23 -11 0 -11 172 -50 -79 156 112 85 88 90 109 212 86 95 152 139 115 102 101 91 102 102 88 279 77 85 100 137 109 109 112 108 106 116 171 125 118 104 112 149 114 113 102 98 107 128 165 81 -55 -243 -242 -384 -348 248 -397 -89 -393 -324 -153 -299 -232 -298 -318 -390 -98 13 -79 55 -18 9 -10 -29 -13 -40 3 -1 -5 0 0 -27 -13 4 -12 -23 10 -3 33 1 0 100 -65 -233 -213 -372 -308 245 -397 -84 -393 -324 -127 -286 -236 -285 -295 -400 -95 -20 -81 55 45 87 -28 25 -45 31 -149 51 25 -138 -701 -3 31 44 -4 -56 295 -68 -31 11 72 80 13 43 -16 -6 42 -32 -8 -7 -94 -8 22 38 -4 -2 4 62 -12 -34 -34 5 -35 74 -71 41 -39 -11 -117 60 32 -45 -693 -25 -7 48 -1 -61 233 -56 3 45 67 -86 -644 -152 -187 1,674 -54 -56 -156 17 270 -143 2,589 -346 -129 -90 -204 -24 1,823 374 410 2,740 -7 -9 -3 -19 -44 -40 -44 -34 65 -8 -7 -67 -151 -84 -56 20 -59 -5 -69 9 -72 151 541 -46 -56 -1,982 -256 512 -281 -201 -551 510 -2,671 241 15 -138 -51 -613 -1,839 -330 -449 -2,569 169 122 147 -64 -294 -422 597 -337 -374 -574 -218 -404 -11 -3 206 -62 -444 -131 444 -486 -1,145 -27 16 158 -65 -28 37 330 -62 -86 -217 -25 55 -80 -2 182 -90 -55 19 325 -43 -96 86 40 51 -8 17 -49 -277 4 8 13 -69 -68 -41 11 75 4 -34 -17 94 -12 29 105 36 -77 8 -132 -406 514 -274 -297 -357 -55 -396 120 -11 -59 24 -287 -85 -21 -388 -1,112 5 30 15 0 -151 -4 31 -5 1 -13 -69 6 -10 -1 8 0 -68 -48 47 -43 34 -18 419 -193 8 -1,688 166 -85 55 172 23 728 -2,267 252 18 -344 11 -169 -1,708 -774 36 -1,425 224 -8 -144 56 6 18 40 -234 86 -152 -5 35 64 -127 -137 64 76 136 48 -281 101 -114 -83 -62 -32 14 -194 -28 34 -151 492 675 -14 -59 -372 43 -201 12 -6 -11 20 -218 -126 527 12 -9 -1,726 358 -136 274 234 -319 68 -2,299 251 524 -250 155 -259 -1,843 -780 224 -1,296 -2 -17 1 -6 18 -17 38 -18 3 2 -10 12 -4 -7 0 -8 3 5 -31 75 -12 -4 -41 -3 23 26 11 -18 22 11 33 17 25 -61 -82 3 -4 1 -6 35 -62 -116 -231 -4 182 42 188 118 -304 333 9 53 26 20 47 -20 137 114 223 41 -228 -13 -77 196 172 164 179 193 191 168 156 159 202 181 176 169 200 146 176 195 194 182 165 N/A 1,042 1,052 935 1,032 1,116 1,062 777 1,008 988 1,082 1,109 1,054 1,019 1,116 924 1,098 1,173 1,073 877 1,090 N/A 603 554 460 590 610 628 550 507 554 611 633 576 609 601 448 619 626 603 583 560 N/A 197 217 163 190 219 209 259 196 195 254 218 259 188 203 154 205 221 240 225 182 N/A 1,192 1,175 1,096 1,140 1,244 1,160 978 1,223 1,110 1,144 1,199 1,201 1,062 1,176 988 1,132 1,243 1,209 1,002 1,140 N/A 475 442 447 461 530 508 448 445 467 483 491 490 506 510 440 530 552 519 516 477 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 102 221 233 83 102 111 119 182 169 188 204 227 227 207 Central government (S. 1311) 4,299 5,057 6,563 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,805 4,874 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 584 610 581 554 584 588 589 588 591 580 584 589 590 585 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,454 9,267 8,917 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 9,338 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 20,876 19,470 14,903 21,434 20,876 20,976 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,488 20,398 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,229 2,135 1,764 2,277 2,229 2,210 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 2,210 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,445 5,194 5,020 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,237 5,210 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,692 34,558 29,620 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,422 35,316 In foreign currency 1,536 1,309 1,097 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 1,372 Securities, total 5,659 5,862 7,027 5,052 5,659 5,837 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 5,928 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 28,420 29,582 27,051 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 29,354 Overnight 8,245 8,678 8,558 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,633 8,523 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,868 7,056 6,689 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 6,964 With agreed maturity -long-term 12,248 13,780 11,569 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,851 13,751 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 59 68 235 60 59 92 92 72 80 83 78 66 55 116 Deposits in foreign currency, total 579 552 487 538 579 570 564 577 568 559 583 597 591 579 Overnight 386 372 324 365 386 391 384 384 385 381 397 410 412 397 With agreed maturity -short-term 133 123 91 114 133 117 120 132 124 116 125 125 119 124 With agreed maturity -long-term 59 56 72 58 59 61 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 57 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.22 0.20 0.11 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.15 2.31 1.86 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 2.23 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.46 5.48 5.40 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 5.62 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.69 5.32 3.86 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 6.52 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.39 0.57 0.22 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.25 6-month rates 1.64 0.83 0.34 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.48 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05 6-month rates 0.18 0.15 - 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.16 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2012 2013 2014 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 226 224 221 232 233 229 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 233 233 239 239 246 5,138 5,144 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,447 6,437 6,476 583 580 610 609 613 609 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 570 581 585 585 584 9,341 9,318 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 8,849 8,853 20,294 20,044 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,903 14,692 14,599 14,543 2,204 2,186 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,764 1,994 1,969 1,964 4,930 5,012 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 5,294 4,818 35,131 34,943 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 29,706 29,154 1,354 1,348 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 1,075 1,046 6,004 5,990 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,027 6,922 6,945 7,030 29,460 30,062 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 27,501 27,034 8,651 8,763 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 9,066 8,979 6,980 7,417 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 6,888 6,893 13,755 13,763 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 11,264 10,852 74 119 68 81 120 158 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 311 235 324 283 310 571 576 552 538 554 549 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 511 487 493 488 490 388 399 372 372 383 363 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 334 324 328 324 333 126 119 123 109 114 128 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 98 91 93 93 90 56 57 56 56 56 57 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 79 72 72 71 67 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 2.28 2.28 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 1.22 1.15 5.53 6.00 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.42 5.26 6.51 5.48 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 5.68 •• 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 3.98 4.21 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.39 0.41 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 - - - - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 7 1 8 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,982.3 14,999.1 14,725.1 4,016.5 3,618.4 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,091.3 3,419.9 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,077.2 1,188.8 1,234.9 Current revenues 14,037.9 14,030.6 13,634.7 3,715.6 3,410.8 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,766.5 3,184.6 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,646.1 1,120.0 1,189.9 Tax revenues 13,209.2 13,118.3 12,647.9 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,461.2 2,946.8 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,405.6 1,059.0 1,107.5 Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 2,656.6 2,137.4 697.5 629.5 723.0 511.1 793.0 577.1 510.9 442.5 606.9 91.6 210.5 Social security contributions 5,267.6 5,244.1 5,127.2 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 432.2 446.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 29.2 25.6 23.4 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 5.5 6.3 2.2 1.7 Taxes on property 215.2 233.9 253.5 53.1 26.6 64.8 79.4 63.1 24.2 67.8 91.3 70.3 26.3 26.4 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,856.2 4,876.1 5,027.3 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.4 1,039.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.4 496.8 414.2 Taxes on international trade & transactions 100.2 82.5 77.5 25.1 22.3 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 22.9 18.2 17.0 5.9 5.6 Other taxes 17.2 -0.6 1.5 17.6 -19.4 0.5 5.8 12.6 16.5 -8.4 12.4 -19.0 4.2 3.0 Non-tax revenues 828.7 912.3 986.8 242.9 238.1 171.9 197.0 305.3 237.8 185.7 322.8 240.5 60.9 82.4 Capital revenues 65.3 62.5 67.0 21.7 10.5 10.8 11.7 29.5 10.7 13.1 12.8 30.4 4.7 2.9 Grants 10.4 9.2 32.3 4.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 2.7 14.7 2.1 0.4 0.7 Transferred revenues 53.8 51.7 52.9 0.6 0.1 0.5 50.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 50.9 1.1 0.0 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 845.1 938.2 274.6 195.6 213.2 146.6 289.7 211.2 185.6 143.8 397.5 63.7 41.3 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,546.3 16,125.7 16,282.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,105.7 4,137.4 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,287.6 1,346.7 1,241.2 Current expenditures 6,926.7 6,813.5 6,836.4 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,596.6 1,842.8 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,677.8 530.0 507.0 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,882.7 3,727.7 3,617.0 950.4 958.3 973.9 910.8 884.7 908.5 936.6 871.2 900.6 323.3 305.0 Expenditures on goods and services 2,443.4 2,373.0 2,237.4 638.9 589.7 599.1 551.1 633.1 559.1 565.9 526.7 585.7 199.0 195.1 Interest payments 526.7 647.9 840.1 29.3 431.8 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 295.2 77.8 148.0 5.1 2.2 Reserves 73.9 64.9 141.9 21.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 23.4 56.2 21.3 20.8 43.6 2.5 4.7 Current transfers 7,818.9 7,687.0 7,671.1 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,947.8 1,948.5 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.4 697.0 607.4 Subsidies 496.3 502.7 519.3 128.2 177.1 107.8 57.3 160.5 190.5 111.9 77.5 139.4 14.7 20.6 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,533.5 6,384.2 6,343.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.7 1,576.7 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.3 611.7 519.8 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 737.2 741.0 734.4 203.2 158.0 169.6 196.7 216.8 158.1 185.2 185.7 205.5 67.3 62.3 Current transfers abroad 52.0 59.0 74.4 14.6 13.0 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 10.7 33.2 7.2 3.3 4.6 Capital expenditures 1,023.5 915.0 1,030.8 391.6 165.3 179.2 223.4 347.2 141.6 146.3 259.7 483.2 76.7 72.4 Capital transfers 372.1 319.9 319.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 74.3 154.3 42.5 52.0 69.3 155.1 23.5 24.5 Payments to the EU budget 405.1 390.3 425.5 104.4 161.8 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 100.5 98.0 65.0 19.5 29.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,564.1 -1,126.6 -1,557.6 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2012 2013 2014 9 1 10 1 11M 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1,153.5 1,300.4 1,304.0 1,486.9 1,183.0 1,143.6 1,093.2 1,187.0 1,133.7 1,174.3 1,290.1 1,204.9 1,238.2 1,275.2 1,201.0 1,601.0 1,230.7 1,196.3 1,057.5 1,256.4 1,228.5 1,281.6 1,130.5 1,072.7 981.5 1,107.7 1,060.8 1,124.5 1,225.5 1,159.5 1,125.9 1,210.9 1,144.3 1,290.9 1,198.2 1,139.6 1,003.9 1,188.8 1,161.5 1,111.0 1,076.5 955.1 915.2 1,046.5 997.0 1,063.9 1,061.0 1,063.1 1,064.0 1,142.4 1,067.1 1,196.1 1,135.8 994.4 209.0 215.7 311.1 266.3 199.9 194.1 183.1 70.9 163.5 276.6 62.6 188.7 191.2 187.8 190.0 229.1 207.0 199.3 428.2 430.0 360.0 472.3 424.7 418.9 421.4 432.4 426.3 424.7 423.0 419.4 418.9 420.1 427.8 469.7 430.5 445.0 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.5 1.7 1.4 26.6 20.0 30.5 12.7 6.1 9.0 9.0 17.3 30.4 20.1 32.1 29.3 29.8 19.9 35.7 14.8 6.8 6.6 333.2 512.5 444.9 346.1 438.3 319.3 281.6 521.1 375.5 328.1 527.3 408.0 421.6 512.7 408.8 485.0 478.9 329.6 6.3 7.6 7.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 6.6 6.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 5.1 5.0 7.2 -1.4 1.0 5.9 5.7 0.3 5.7 10.5 -5.7 -8.2 5.5 7.2 9.7 -4.5 -5.8 -3.2 -10.0 6.0 5.3 53.6 67.6 67.0 170.7 54.0 117.5 66.2 61.2 63.9 60.6 164.5 96.4 61.9 68.5 77.2 94.7 62.4 145.2 4.1 3.6 5.3 20.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.8 2.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 20.2 3.8 4.4 0.4 0.3 1.1 3.1 0.2 12.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 10.4 0.2 4.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 49.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 50.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 41.6 39.7 68.9 181.1 47.9 55.1 108.2 74.1 67.9 43.6 48.0 42.0 53.8 59.0 50.2 288.3 27.4 52.0 1,248.1 1,332.7 1,352.4 1,420.6 1,460.9 1,348.6 1,327.9 1,452.2 1,260.2 1,299.3 1,373.0 1,179.8 1,293.4 1,332.4 1,367.6 1,587.6 1,439.9 1,474.7 516.2 563.7 530.6 502.2 664.4 568.6 609.9 727.3 519.2 572.5 503.8 460.8 532.1 532.6 565.1 580.1 624.9 672.0 282.5 294.3 314.8 275.6 327.2 269.0 312.4 294.5 280.7 361.5 295.0 290.5 285.7 285.1 295.5 320.0 299.9 345.5 157.0 215.4 209.5 208.3 197.1 155.4 206.6 197.5 194.0 174.3 198.3 161.0 167.4 173.1 183.1 229.6 176.1 183.7 72.1 48.5 2.3 4.5 133.3 101.8 83.9 227.9 38.8 28.5 3.9 1.7 72.2 66.8 78.8 2.3 141.9 135.9 4.6 5.5 4.1 13.8 6.8 42.4 7.0 7.3 5.7 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.8 7.6 7.7 28.2 7.0 6.8 598.8 611.3 662.3 674.2 683.1 639.8 625.7 637.4 633.4 622.9 731.8 582.5 608.2 617.1 628.6 660.7 697.1 652.5 22.0 27.4 68.1 65.0 94.2 60.0 36.3 33.2 44.7 34.1 28.4 21.2 27.9 34.4 48.5 56.4 119.7 65.7 505.1 524.2 511.8 513.6 526.3 521.5 529.0 534.5 525.4 526.0 610.4 503.5 512.1 516.7 513.9 523.8 514.9 524.4 67.0 56.7 70.0 90.1 57.9 41.6 58.5 67.2 57.7 60.3 67.1 53.7 64.8 63.2 63.3 79.0 56.5 57.4 4.7 3.0 12.3 5.5 4.6 16.8 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.5 25.8 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.9 1.6 6.0 5.0 74.2 86.5 95.7 165.0 49.5 50.8 41.4 38.1 50.6 57.5 80.9 83.2 95.5 122.6 125.2 235.4 68.5 59.1 26.3 43.3 41.6 69.4 12.6 11.9 17.9 16.1 23.3 12.7 23.0 21.3 25.1 41.5 29.6 84.0 1.7 9.4 32.6 27.9 22.2 9.8 51.3 77.5 33.0 33.2 33.7 33.6 33.5 32.0 32.5 18.6 19.1 27.3 47.7 81.7 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BAMC - Bank Asset Management Company, BoE - Bank of England, BoJ - Bank of Japan, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CHF - Swiss Franc, , EC - European Comission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFSF - European Financial Stability Facility, EFSM - European Financial Stability Mechanism, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ES - European Council, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESM - European Stability Mechanism, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESSPROS - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GBP - British pound, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HUF - Hungarian Forint, ifo - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung , IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, JPY - Japanese yen, LFS - Labour Force Survey, Libor - London Interbank Offered Rate, MF - Ministry of Finance, MZIP - Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial Planning, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, OP RČV - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PRS - the Slovenian Business Register, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, USD - US Dollar, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research, ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steamand air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror April 2014, No. 4, Vol. XX