UDK 902.65(4-i2)"63i/634":55i.58i.2 Documenta Praehistorica XXXIV (2007) The 8200 calBP 'climate event' and the process of neolithisation in south-eastern Europe Mihael Budja Department of Archaeology, Faculty of Arts, University of Ljubljana, SI miha.budja@ff.uni-lj.si ABSTRACT - Climate anomalies between 8247-8086calBP are discussed in relation to the process of transition farming and to demographic dynamics and population trajectories in south-eastern Europe. IZVLEČEK - Predstavljamo klimatske spremembe med leti 8247-8086 calBP v povezavi s procesom neolitizacije, demografskimi dinamikami in populacijskimi trajektorijami v jugovzhodni Evropi. KEY WORDS - 8200 calBP 'climate event'; neolithisation process; population trajectories; south- eastern Europe Introduction Since the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition was mar- ked by rapid and pronounced climatic oscillations during general deglaciation, many investigations have focused on this period. Little attention has been devoted to climate variation during the Holocene period, although the climate was characterised by a wide, abrupt and repeating series of climatic anoma- lies. The abrupt climate change "occurs when the cli- mate system is forced to cross some threshold, trig- gering a transition to a new state at a rate deter- mined by the climate system itself and faster than the cause" (Alley et al. 2003.2005). During the Ho- locene, these climate changes were manifested by cooling oscillations, tropical aridity, and major atmo- spheric circulation changes at round 8200, 5200, 4200, 3500, 1200, and 600 calBP (Mayewski et al. 2004.243-255; see also Alley et al. 2003.2005- 2009) (Fig. 1). The most recent manifestation is known as the Little Ice Age. Climate anomalies between 82000-8000 calBP The '8.2 ka BP event' has often been compared to the much wider Younger Dryas event; it has been hypothesised that the latter punctuated the termina- tion of the last glacial with a flood outburst from the final deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet. The proposed mechanism for the first Holocene climatic event is similar. Although it has been suggested that the cooling was linked to reduced solar output, the generally accepted explanation points to pulse a melt and cold fresh water released by a sudden drainage of the proglacial Laurentide lakes in North America into the North Atlantic, and to the curtailment and slowdown of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and associated northward heat transport. Ellison et al. (2006.1929-1932) showed that the near-bottom flow speed of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water, an important component of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, declined significantly at the onset of the cold event. Climate models forced with a strong fresh water pulse into the North Atlantic do suggest widespread consequences. Anomalies have been observed around 8200 calBP in palaeoclimate archives on a near-global scale, except for the high southern latitudes. It appears to have been generally cool over much of the Northern Hemisphere through- out this anomaly, as evidenced by major ice rafting, strengthened atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Siberia, and more frequent polar north- westerly (winter) outbreaks over the Aegean Sea. Mountain glacier advances occur in north-western Copyright by Department of Archaeology, Faculty of arts, University of Ljubljana. 191 North America and Scandinavia, and the tree line limit is lower in Sweden. At low latitudes this is a period of widespread aridity. The record of German tree-ring widths shows a di- stinct low caused by colder and more arid climatic conditions over northern- central Europe. Summer monsoons over the Arabian Sea and tropical Af- rica weaken dramatically. Widespread and persistent drought occurs in cen- tral Asia and Africa, but precipitation increases in the Middle East (Alley and Ägüstsdöttir 2005.1123-1149; Rohling & Pälike 2005. 975-979). The 8200 calBP 'climate event' was first clearly noted in Greenland ice core records and in deep sediment co- res in Lake Ammersee in southern Germany. In summer 1992 (within the European Greenland Ice Core Pro- ject - GRIP) the core was drilled at the top of the Greenland ice cap, some 30 km east of the parallel core of US Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), which reached bedrock a year later. Significant changes in chemical con- centrations of different elements were detected in certain sections of the co- res: GRIP from 1320 to 1340 m, and GISP from 1310 to 1355 m. Sharp anomalies were found in the oxygen isotopic ratios of ice 818O, indicating rapid cooling. The sharp decrease in atmospheric methane concentration shows a decline of biogenic methane sources generally associated with wet- lands in response to aridity in high, mid and low-la- titude (monsoon) regions. Anomalies in chloride and calcium accumulations mark a larger-scale atmosphe- ric response: chloride primarily from sea salt indica- tes strength of atmospheric circulation or distance from oceanic source areas; while calcium, primarily from continental dust, is a signal of dust availability, dryness, and transport vigour from continental re- gions (Alley et al 1997.483-486; von Grafenstein et al. 1998.73-81; 1999.1654-1657; Alley and Ägüsts- döttir 2005.1123-1149). The palaeoclimate records from across Europe show events very probably correlative with the 8200 calBP 'climate event'. The typical signature of cooling in Fig. 1. The sequence of Holocene climate oscillations (from Mayew- ski et al. 2004.Fig. 3). the Norwegian Sea, the Mediterranean and Adriatic marks the interruption of cooler and drier condi- tions in Sapropel S1(a) formation and an increase in the appearance of the left-coiling planktonic for- aminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (Trincar- di et al. 1996.53; Ariztegui et al. 2000.226; Wenin- ger et al. 2005.79-82; 2006.401-420; Rohling & Pä- like 2005.975) (Fig. 2 a-c). Cooling in Scandinavia and the Baltic region is mar- ked by reduced annual temperatures in the Estonian Lake Röuge, by the advance of Norwegian glaciers, and by a decrease in the early flowering of Alnus, Corylus and Ulmus pollen productivity and repro- duction, which indicates frost damage in early spring Fig. 2. The climate data from GISP2 and GRIP Greenland ice-cores show changes in concentration of chlo- ride, calcium, methane, temperature, snow accumulation rate, and frequency of fallout of forest-fire smoke mark at c. 8200 calBP (from Alley and Agustsdottir 2005.Fig 2) (a). Climate proxies from Europe and Near East that correlate to climate anomalies: oak tree-ring width in Central Europe; appearance of left- coiling planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (Norwegian Sea); S18Oöstracodes (Ammer- see); S13Cstalagmite (Soreq Cave, Israel); S18Ostalagmite (Crag Cave, Ireland) (from Weninger et al. 2006.Fig. 1) (b). Greenland ice-cores GISP2 and GRIP location (from Thomas et al. 2007.Fig 1) (c). and lower summer temperatures (Rohling & Pälike 2005; Sarmaja-Korjonen and Seppä 2007.457- 467). A synthesis of well-dated high-resolution pol- len records, however, suggests a spatial structure in the 8200 calBP event in northern Europe. The tem- perate Thermophilous tree taxa, especially Corylus, Ulmus, and Alnus, decline abruptly between 8300 and 8000 calBP at most sites located south of 61 °N, whereas there is no clear change in pollen values at sites located in the north European tree-line region. Pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructi- ons and several other, independent palaeoclimate proxies, such as lacustrine oxygen-isotope records, reflect the same pattern, with no detectable cooling in the sub-arctic region. Seppä et al. (2007.165-195), thus suggesting a spatial pattern in the 8200 calBP event, with more distinct evidence of cooling in the Baltic region and in southern Fennoscandia than in the central and northernmost parts of the region. In southern Germany, the abrupt climate change is dendro-climatically recorded in oak trees in the Main valley. Between 8200 and 8000 calBP, the ring widths of oaks were at a low level, implying poor growing conditions during summer. The extraordinarily low deposition rate of trees was synchronous with redu- ced germination and a shift in the dominant growth trend in the trees, indicative of poor regeneration conditions. After two centuries, normal conditions were re-established. The climate anomaly thus redu- ced the growth and germination of oak, but did not reduce forest density. Pollen analysis from Germany also shows a short-term climate change, evident as an increase in pine and a contemporaneous decrease in mixed hazel and oak forest, indicating cooler and/ or drier conditions (Spurk et al. 2002.711-712). The climate anomaly in the Levant was detected in stalagmites in Soreq Cave in the Judean Mountains in central Israel, where periods of wetter conditions from 8400 to 6900 calBP were interrupted by a dry period at 8250-8000 calBP (Bar-Matthews et al. 2003.3181-3199). The Dead Sea sedimentary record indicates a rapid drop in lake level at 8100 calBP, and the rise of the lake some 300 years later (Migow- ski et al. 2006.421-431). The anomaly, however, was not detected in Anato- lia, neither from Lake Gölhisar, located in the Tau- rus Mountains in south-west Turkey, nor from Lake Van in eastern Turkey (Eastwood et al. 2007.327- 341). The interpretation of the data can be biased because of rough sampling, which may be reflected in the low temporal resolution of stable isotope and pollen data. A similar climate anomaly was recorded in the stalag- mites in Carburangeli Cave in Sicily. The wet phase, comprised of periods of high rainfall in winter from 8500 to 7500 calBP, was interrupted by a prolonged, relatively dry period centred at around 8200 calBP (Frisia et al. 2006.388-400). A weak isotopic signal, recorded in the stalagmites in Poleva Cave in the Danube Gorge in Romania in- dicates temperature changes that correspond to a short-term cold event (Constantin et al. 2007.322- 338). No evidence of anomalies corresponding to the 8200 calBP 'climate event' has been found in the Te- leorman Valley, a tributary of the Danube in the Ro- manian Plain, although the remaining sequence of alluvial deposits shows changes in river activity and accelerated sedimentation around 12 800 calBP, 4900-4800 calBP, 4000-3800 calBP, 3300-2800 calBP, 1000 calBP, and within the past 200 years (Howard et al. 2003.271-280). In southern-central Europe, pollen spectra show pro- nounced and immediate responses and a restructu- ring of terrestrial vegetation in response to the clima- tic change at 8200 calBP. A sudden disappearance of Corylus avellana (hazel) was accompanied by the rapid expansion of Pinus (pine), Betula (birch), and Tilia (lime), and by an invasion of Fagus silvatica (beech) and Abies alba (fir). Temporary expansions of Betula and Pinus are dated at 8170-8050 and at 8120-8000 calBP, respectively, whereas the disap- pearance of Corylus occurred between 8170 and 7950 calBP. This change in vegetation reorganiza- tion is thought to relate directly to annual tempera- tures decreasing by about 2-3°C, and to increased moisture availability (see below). The rapid retreat of drought-adapted Corylus was probably caused by taller and longer-lived trees (e.g. Pinus, Betula, Ti- lia, Quercus, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior) forming dense and more shaded stands. In the long term, these trees were in their turn overwhelmed across the continent by the stepwise expansion of Fagus and Abies (Tinner and Lotter 2001.551-554; 2006. 526-549). For the southern Balkans, Bordon (et al. 2007; see also Denefle et al. 2000.423-432) suggests rainfall seasonality changes during this climate event, with a drastic decrease in autumn to spring precipitation, and considerable falls in temperature. This sugges- tion is based on a re-evaluation of pollen-climate transfer functions applied to the Holocene pollen se- quence of Lake Maliq and Lake Ohrid in Albania, and Lake Ioannina (Pamvotida) in Epirus in Greece. The reconstruction of climatic parameters from Eu- ropean lake-level fluctuation data suggests distinct regional patterns of hydrological change in response to the 8200 calBP 'climate event'. Regions at mid-la- titudes between around 43° and 50°N underwent wetter conditions in response to the cooling, whe- reas northern and southern Europe was marked by a drier climate. The hydrological tri-partition of Eu- rope has been thought to relate to a shift between two prevalent climatic modes. A strong high-pressure system over Central Europe, connected with enhan- ced westerly (humid) airflow in Scandinavia, was important before 8200 calBP. Thereafter, the high- pressure field over Central Europe weakened and a low-pressure anomaly over western Ireland became established, allowing the rerouting of humid air mas- ses towards Central Europe. This new, persistent set- ting in atmospheric circulation would have induced more humid oceanic conditions in Central Europe (Magny et al. 2003.1589-1596) (Fig. 3 ). The records from Lake Annecy in the French pre- Alps, Le Locle in the Swiss Jura, Soppensee and Haas at Wallisellen-Langachermoos, a former oligotrophic lake on the Swiss Plateau, and Lago di Mezzano in north-central Italy show a sequence of lake level ma- xima (preceded and followed by lake level minima) that correlates to the 8200 calBP cold event. The in- creasing moisture was observed in Schleinseeand in Germany, and a parallel increase in river discharge was recognized in the middle Rhone basin and in the Durance Valley in France. A fall in water level in the same period was recorded in Lake Siles in south- ern Spain, in Lago di Vico in central Italy and lakes Albano and Nemi in Central Italy (Magny and Schoel- lammer 1999.183-197; Magny et al. 2003. 1591- _GISP2 GREENLAI JD J^........ 8,2 ka se^ -Ć7 -ice cover C -J VM29-191 ® ca 'fir ________] ' \SSL/ <7 1UROPE NO WESTERLIES-j ITH > L. +Sc SJ+++W } & ATLA OC1 NTIC lAN C Š / T """=>"-------VJ AFRICA Fig. 3. The hydrological tri-partition of Europe. Shaded area marks mid-European zone with wetter conditions and marked lake-level maxima (+) and minima(-) that correlates to 8.200 calBP cold event. AN - lakes Albano and Nemi, L - Le Locle, M - Lago di Mez- zano, Mo - Lago Grande di Monticchio, S - lake Siles, Sc - Schlein- see, SJ - Saint-Jorioz, So - Soppensee, T - lake Tigalmamine, V - Lago di Vico (from Magny et al. 2003.Fig.2). the global scale. Alley and Agustsdot- tir (2005) discuss the contrast be- tween longer anomalies (several cen- turies) at some sites and short, high- amplitude anomalies at others. Re- cent calculations show that the cold event in central Greenland started at 8247 calBP, and ended at 8086 calBP. The event was asymmetrical, with considerable decadal variability in the record as shown by the presence of relatively warm spikes at around 8220 and 8160 calBP, within which there is a central cold event of 69 years, when values were significantly below the Holocene average.1 The length for the full event is calculated at 160.5±5.5 years, and 69±2 years for the central event (Thomas et al. 2007.72-76) (Fig. 4). A similar dura- tion of 180 years was estimated for the isotopic anomaly in Ammersee in central Europe (von Grafenstein et al. 1998.77). 1593) (Fig. 3 ). The abrupt climate deterioration (cold and wet period) was recognized recently in the sedi- ment core from the Alpine lake Oberer Landschitzsee, located at the southern slope of the Niedere Tauern in the Austrian Central Alps (Schmidt et al. 2006. 499-500). The contrasting patterns of hydrological change were confirmed by radiocarbon dated fluvial deposits and river dynamics in Poland, Great Britain and Spain, indicating the period was particularly dry (Macklin et al. 2006.145-154; Starkel et al. 2006.24-33; Thorndycraft and Benito 2006.34-41). The dry cli- matic conditions and lake level fluctuations obser- ved in southern and northern Europe have equiva- lents in major falls in water level recon- structed for the event in African tropical lakes (Gasse 2000.189-211) due to lower sea surface temperature and weaker evapo- ration, which fully accords with the inter- ruption of Sapropel 1 formation in the Me- diterranean, as mentioned above. The paleoclimatic records from across Europe clearly show that these cold conditions spread beyond Gre- enland, but as Rohling and Pälike (2005. 975-978) have pointed out, at most locations out of the North Atlantic the signals around the event are smaller, and these sudden climate changes appear superimpo- sed on a longer period of 4 to 6 centuries of cooling, beginning as early as 8600 calBP. It was not related to the impact of a slowdown in North Atlantic Deep Water formation, but to variations in solar radiation and output fluctuations. Thomas et al. (2007.77- 79) on the other hand suggest that a re-examination of chemical data in the ice core records shows smal- ler changes in the chemical deposition of Ca and Cl than those reported previously, which could reflect Age of markers in the 8.2 ka event Event Depth Age (GRIPm) (GICC05yr BP) Age (GICC05yr b2k) Start 1340.12 8247 8297 Start central event 1336.45 8218 8262 End central event 1329.96 8141 8191 End 1324.77 8086 8136 However, there is considerable imbalance in interpreting the nptf^ tatfon, and Fig. 4. The age of8200 calBP 'climate event' (from Thomas extent of the 8200 calBP 'climate event' on et al. 2007.Tab.1). 1 The tripartite nature of the 8200 calBP 'climate event' has also been observed in French and Swiss lake sediments at Lake Annecy and Haas at Wallisellen where two lake-level maxima was separated by a lowering episode (Magny et al. 2003.1592). small changes in Asian conditions and only mi- nor changes in atmospheric circulation. There was, however, an alternative hypothesis of cli- mate mechanisms and precipitation climato- logy in the eastern Mediterranean, western Asia, and the Indian subcontinent, whether linked to North Atlantic oscillation, or solar radiation variability, suggested by Staubwas- ser and Weiss (2006.372- 387). They believe that a change in the subtropical upper-level flow and its steering of precipitation over the eastern Mediterranean and Asia was respon- sible for the reduced winter rainfall and long- term trend towards drier conditions in the Le- vant, and for the weakness of the Indian mon- soon over its northernmost region in the Gan- ges and Indus catchments and the western Arabian Sea. Climate events, the transition to farming and population trajectories A strong parallelism between climate events and Middle and Near Eastern, and European cultural and social trajectories in the Neolithic was suggested recently (Staubwasser, Weiss 2006.372-387; Migowski et al. 2006.421- 431; Weninger et al. 2005.75-118; 2006. 401-420). The 8200 calBP 'climate event' was associated with the transition from the Pre- Pottery to Pottery Neolithic, which was mar- ked by the collapse of a 'ritual economy' and agricultural PPN aggregation centres in Le- vant. The Jericho settlement was abandoned, and the arid period appears to coincide with the temporal abandonment of settlements at Ain Ghazal in the Levant and Catalhöyük-East in Central Anatolia. Weninger et al. (2005.75- 118; 2006.401-420) suggest correlating the climate anomaly with both a 'great exodus', and 'demic' diffusion, in which Levantine and Anatolian farmers spread from West Asia and the Near East into Europe. Bonsall et al. (2002(2003).1- 15) propose, on the other hand, that in the hunter- gatherer cultural context at Lepenski Vir, the large stone boulders which were decorated with sculpted representations of fish-human beings represented material commemorations of the 8200 calBP 'climate event', which caused floods in the Danube Gorge in the Northern Balkans. The climate oscillations undoubted chronologically correlates with the process of Neolithisation of south- eastern Europe, and certainly affected regional envi- Settlement context Sample reference 14C age (BP) Calendric Age calBP Deszk OxA-9396 7030 ± 50 7870 ± 55 Miercurea Sibiului GrN28520 7050 ± 70 7875 ± 67 Pitvaros OxA-9336 7060 ± 45 7898 ± 41 Vinogradi-Be;ej OxA-8557 7080 ± 55 7909 ± 48 Foeni-Salas GrN-28454 7080 ± 50 7910 ± 45 Ocna Sibiului GrN-28110 7120 ± 60 7940 ± 56 Magare;i Mlin GrN-15973 7130 ± 60 7946 ± 57 Gura Baciului GrA-24137 7140 ± 45 7971 ± 3o Perlez-Batka OxA-8605 7145 ± 50 7973 ± 34 Donja Branjevina GrN-15974 7155 ± 50 7981 ± 32 Topole Ba; OxA-8639 7170 ± 50 7993 ± 33 8200 calBP 'climate event' in Greenland 8247-8086 Padina H17 OxA-11103 7315 ± 55 8118 ± 61 Padina H12 OxA-9034* 7755 ± 65 8530 ± 64 Lepenski Vir H 54 Z-i43 7300 ± 124 8142 ± 128 Blagotin Poljna OxA-8608 7480 ± 55 8239 ± 65 Poljanica Platoto Bln-1571 7535 ± 60 8326 ± 68 Nea Nikomedeia P 102 7557 ± 91 8348 ± 96 Anza Lj—25n9 7560 ±70 8355 ± 65 Hoca ^e§me IV Bln-4609 7637 ± 43 8449 ± 42 Sesklo 'Initial Neolithic' P-1681 7755 ± 97 8570 ± 111 Achilleion Ia lJ-4449 7540 ± 140 8346 ±137 Argissa ENI/II H-889-3080 7760 ± 100 8582 ±120 Knossos X BM-278 7910 ± 140 8780 ±120 Franchthi 0/1 P-2094 7930 ± 100 8798 ±148 Tab. 1. The list of settlement contexts and the 14C sequence of initial appearances of farming and pottery (Lepenski Vir and Padina) in the Balkans, south-eastern part of Pannonian Plain and Southern Carpathians (Boyadziev 1995.149-191; Boric and Miracle 2004.341- 371; Whittle et al. 2002.15-62; Biagi and Spataro 2005.41-50; Eingru- ber and Thissen on-line 2005). The dates are calibrated using the calibration curve CaLPaL2007_HULU(www.cal- pal-online.de). *The oxa-9034 (Canis familiaris, tibia) was not corrected for the freshwater reservoir effect, as suggested in Boric and Miracle (2004.347, 350, tab. 4). If we apply it, the date is 200-500 years younger. ronmental conditions. How it affected contemporary hunter-gatherers and farmers and the process of transition to farming is a question still awaiting an answer. Weninger et al. (2006.418) have proposed that 'the rapid spread of early farming to South-East Europe can be most plausibly understood as a direct and immediate reaction to abrupt climate forcing'. This scenario seems unlikely, as they showed that the first agriculture in the Peloponnesus, and the southern, central and northern Balkans clearly pre- date this event (L.c. 411-417). Pottery, on the other hand, appeared in hunter-gatherer contexts at Le- penski Vir and Padina in the Danube Gorge, in the most northerly region of the Balkans, before this cli- matic oscillation. Animal domesticates, however, ar- rived there immediately after. Domestic goat Capra hircus, pig Sus scrofa domesticus and domestic cat- tle Bos Taurus were found in association with pits and a domed oven that were not in direct associa- tion with the trapezoidal buildings at the site. Ani- mal domesticates were introduced into the Lepenski Vir culture context as early as 7891 ± 38 calBP (see Borić and Dimitrijević, this volume). The 14C series (Tab. 1) shows that the full 'Neolithic package' crossed the Danube and entered the south- ernmost Pannonian Plain after the climate event, and stopped there for several centuries. There are not many analyses of climate records of the early and middle Holocene in Central and South- eastern Europe. We may hypothesise, however, that the 8200 calBP 'climate event' and associated in- crease in regional precipitation, floods, and restruc- turing of terrestrial vegetation at mid-latitudes be- tween around 43° and 50°N (see above) hampered the Neolithisation of south-eastern and central Eu- rope. The Morava River valley, which was traditio- nally recognized as a river waterway connecting the southern Balkans to north-central Europe supposed to be badly affected by river dynamics and floods. It is well known, on the other hand, that prior to hydro- logical regulation, the Pannonian Plain was flooded at least twice a year (Sümegi and Kertesz 2001.405- 415) (Fig. 5), and perhaps we may speculate (in agre- ement with the model in Magny et al. 2003.1589- 1596] see also Szlavik and Ratky 2001.121-140) that there was an extension of wet- lands and long-term flooding in the region at the time of the climate event. In one of the modified mo- dels of 'demic' diffusion it was sug- gested, paradoxically, that the mi- grating farmers preferred to occupy the flood plains of rivers and lakes in south-eastern Europe, where they supposedly reached 'saturation' in population growth, which allowed them to drive 'demic' diffusion to the next floodplain towards the Car- pathian basin (van Andel and Run- nels 1995.481-500). The settlement distribution pattern in the Middle Morava valley is instructive, where a single site of 28 Early Neolithic sites of Starčevo culture (phase I) was lo- cated in the river valley. All the sites are distributed within the surrounding hilly areas (Vetnić 1998.76-77; Perić 204.26-27) (Fig. 6). It is worth remembering that Todorova and Vajsov (1993.62, see also Todorova 2003.267) have already pointed out the reverse direction of Neolithic disper- sal in north-eastern Bulgaria. They hypothesised that because of climate instabilities and falling tempera- tures after 6000 cal BC, farmers migrated southward, settling northern Thrace. We do not know, if and how the 8200 calBP 'climate event' affected hunter-gatherer and farming popula- tion demographics in the various climatic (wetter and drier) conditions in various Eurasian regions. We know that an increase in infectious diseases has been noted in various regions following a transition from foraging to farming subsistence (Larsen 1997. 85-87). We also know that climate change, inclu- ding rising and falling temperatures, and greater frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as drought and flood, appear to be inevitable influen- ces on effective population size. Variations in popu- lation size bring us to two important population pro- cesses that shape populations: bottleneck and foun- der effects. Both processes result in a reduced ances- tral population size, but founder effects relate to the process of colonization and the genetic separation of a subset of the diversity present within the source population (hypothesised farming migration from Near East). In contrast, bottlenecks refer to drama- tic reductions in size of a single, previously larger, population and the loss of prior genetic diversity. This may relate to hunter-gatherer and farmer popu- lations in flooded plains and between river valleys Fig. 5. The Pannonian Plain: periodically and permanently flooded areas prior to the flood control and drainage in 1830 (from Szla- vik on-line www.om.hu/research/framework5/ist/copenhagen/ SZLAVIK/FMIS_Hungary.ppt) in the Balkans, the Pannonian Plain, and the Carpathians, who were iso- lated during the climate event. Population geneticists correlate the paternal Y-chromosome gene flow, objectified in Palaeolithic-Mesolithic sub-haplogroup I1b* and Neolithic haplogroups J and E, with the Neo- lithisation of south-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean (Budja 2005. 56-60). Haplogroup J is subdivided into two major clades, J1 (M267) and J2 (M172). Their estimated ages, particularly those calculated using mi- crosatellite mutation rates (YMRCA) at around 8400 and J2 at 3600 years ago, demonstrate that the genetic re- cord of south-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean can be read as a pa- limpsest of repeatedly overwritten demographic dynamics (Di Giaco- mo 2004.364-366; Novelletto 2007. 158-160); and, we suggest, they may have correlated with climate anoma- lies in the Neolithic and Bronze Age. Additionally, the expansion time for clade V13 within haplogroup E (M78) was calculated at about 5300 years ago (Cruciani et al. 2007.1307). It seems that these population trajectories fit well with the cooling peri- ods, aridity, and major atmospheric circulation chan- ges in the Holocene mentioned in the introduction. In place of concluding remarks The 8200 calBP 'climate event' which abruptly and drastically changed global environments during the transition to farming has been overlooked in almost all the archaeological interpretations of the Neolithi- sation process in Eurasia. It was overlooked in recon- structions of demographic dynamics and population trajectories, whether based on analyses of classical and DNA markers within modern populations, or on ancient DNA records from Mesolithic and Neolithic populations. Fig. 6. The Middle Morava Valley and Early Neolithic farmers' set- tlement dispersal. The 2006floods in Morava River basin is mar- ked in red. The figure is based on a relief map www.reliefweb.int/ rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/LPAA-6QJMBS?0penDocument and Maps no. 3 and 4 from Peric (2004.26-27). The climate anomalies chronologically correlate with the process of Neolithisation in Near East and south- eastern Europe, and they certainly affected regional environmental conditions. 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