Zsuzsanna Sütő 1, 2 TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES RAZPRAVE IN GRADIVO REVIJA ZA NARODNOSTNA VPRAŠANJA 94 / 2025, p. 129–152 Corresponding author Zsuzsanna Sütő, HU-REN Centre for Social Sciences, Institute for Minority Studies, Budapest, Hungary; e-mail: suto.zsuzsanna@tk.hun-ren.hu; ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0108-8716 1 HU-REN Centre for Social Sciences, Institute for Minority Studies, Budapest, Hungary 2 University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority Hungarian Higher Education Students Abstract Based on the migration models proposed by J. Carling, de Haas, and K. Schewel, we examine the immobility aspirations of minority and majority Hungarian students in Central Europe. Our aim is to identify individual as well as institutional factors that we hypothesise support students in developing their immobility aspirations. We analyse empirical data collected through a survey in 2019 among students of Hungarian- language higher education institutions in Hungary, Ukraine, Romania, Slovakia, and Serbia (N = 2,210). The results of multivariate and logistic regression analyses show that the development of immobility aspirations is supported by socio-demographic factors and social networks, as well as by institutional and academic factors, such as training programmes preparing students for local professions, and a greater degree of trust in the higher education institution and role partners. Keywords  migration, aspiration/ability model, higher education, minority students DOI:10.2478/tdjes-2025-0005 Received 4. 9. 2024, Accepted 4. 5. 2025 © Author 2025. This is an open access article licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 1. Introduction Social science analyses of (im)mobility agree that not all individuals are driven to migrate by the same adverse circumstances 1 (Arango 2000; Golovics 2019). Thus, individual characteristics that are not primarily economic in nature but nevertheless affect individuals’ perceptions of the good life also play a role in their decisions. These factors influence personal life goals, preferences, and subjective well-being (de Haas 2021). As a consequence, these characteristics may not only constrain migration, but may also counteract its hoped-for benefits (Gray 2011; Mata-Codesal 2015; Schewel 2020; Stockdale & Haartsen 2018). The relevance of our research lies in the identification and explana- tion of these factors in the Hungarian minority-majority communities in the Carpathian Basin. A highly skilled workforce is not only a guar- antee of economic and cultural development of the region (Corcoran & Faggian 2017; Faggian & McCann 2008) but also an existential issue for minority communities in particular. Community members who are most at risk of assimilation are those with lower educational attainment (Sütő 2020). It follows that maximising human capital in regions with minority-language higher education institutions, particularly with re- gard to graduate retention, is key for ensuring the economic and social well-being of communities (Abel & Deitz 2012; Haapanen & Tervo 2012; Venhorst et al. 2010). The relevance of our research is further enhanced by migration indicators. In each of the countries under study – Hungary, Ukraine, Romania, Slovakia, and Serbia – the number of ethnic Hungar- ians has been steadily decreasing since 1990 (Péti et al. 2020; Obádov- ics 2019; Tátrai et al. 2018). Population decline is the result of multiple factors, such as natural population change, life expectancy at birth, and the ageing index, but migration also plays a prominent role in Central European countries and regions. Although direct comparisons between countries and regions are difficult due to different statistical method- ologies and other limitations, research consistently finds that the rate of emigration of minority Hungarian communities is particularly high. In the 2010s, the highest emigration rate was recorded among Hungarians from Vojvodina, followed by those from Transcarpathia and Transylva- nia, while the lowest emigration rates were recorded in Hungary and the regions of Felvidék (Péti et al. 2020). Still, Central European students’ immobility plans and the individual and institutional factors behind them remain an understudied area of research. Examining these topics is all the more relevant as research on international migration does not provide a satisfactory framework Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 131 for understanding the behaviour of immobile people and rarely focuses on the social processes preceding migration and the planning phase of migration. Staying is rarely considered a phenomenon worthy of study in the academic discourse on migration, although it undoubtedly con- tributes to the understanding of complex migration patterns. Based on the migration models proposed by Carling (2002), de Haas (2021), and Schewel (2020), we examine Hungarian students’ aspira- tions to stay. We follow the line of research suggesting that both mobil- ity and immobility are possible responses to an individual’s life circum- stances or changes therein (Fischer & Malmberg 1997). It is important to note that we do not assign a value to individuals’ (im)mobility strate- gies, nor do we consider staying superior to migration. Rather, our aim is to use statistical analyses to identify individual as well as academic, institutional factors that may support students in developing their im- mobility aspirations. In doing so, we aim to contribute to the academic discourse analysing the migration decisions of minority and majority Hungarians in Central Europe. 2. Theoretical Background. Understanding Immobility In the academic discourse on migration, interpreting immobility as a migration strategy is a relatively recent approach. Various studies agree that, like migration, immobility is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that is the result of a conscious choice, which is reinterpreted by in- dividuals throughout their life course (Al-Khudairy 2024; Carling 2002; Carling & Schewel 2018; Gruber 2021). Jørgen Carling’s (2002) aspira- tion/ability model was among the first to consider staying at home a conscious choice. According to this model, mobility and immobility strategies are determined by individual aspirations and abilities. Based on combinations of different levels of individual aspirations and abili- ties, the concept proposes three categories of migration: (1) migrants are individuals who have both the aspiration and the ability to migrate, immobility is associated with the lack of either factor; those who as- pire to migrate but are unable to do so are classified as (2) involuntary non-migrants (involuntary immobility); and those who believe that it is preferable to stay rather than to migrate regardless of their level of abil- ity are classified as (3) voluntary non-migrants (voluntary immobility) (Carling 2002, 12). In Carling’s theory, migration aspirations and abilities are determined by factors at both micro- and macro- level. TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 132 For a more precise understanding of immobility, de Haas replaced Carling’s concept of ability with the concept of capability, which is more dynamic from an individual perspective. He interprets individuals’ mo- bility as the capability to choose where to live freely, which includes the option to stay (de Haas 2021). Schewel refined the theory further and introduced the category of acquiescent non-migrants (acquiescent im- mobility) to better understand the behaviour of immobile people who neither aspire to nor have the capability to migrate. She adds, however, that individuals’ capabilities and aspirations are not static characteris- tics and need to be disentangled analytically to be able to understand why differences in mobility aspirations arise under similar macro con- ditions. Schewel argues that retaining factors which support staying and facilitate immobility include language skills, social relationships, location-specific knowledge, local economic advantages, and the time spent in the home country. Immobility may also be supported by nega- tive interpretations and repel factors such as economic, political, and cultural uncertainties in relation to the destination. Staying is also rein- forced by internal constraints, which relate to reasons why individuals do not consider migrating in the first place, including traditional gender roles (Schewel 2020). The categories are best understood as ideal types but offer a co- herent conceptual framework for understanding (im)mobile behaviour (Carling & Schewel 2018; de Sherbinin et al. 2022). 2 Table 1: Individual (im)mobility types derived from the aspiration/capability models Mobility capabilities Low High Mobility aspirations High Involuntary immobility Voluntary immobility Low Acquiescent immobility Mobility or Involuntary mobility Source: Carling (2002), de Haas (2021), Schewel (2020). Models of staying and immobility strategy formation seek to explain the characteristics of individuals who, unlike those who are mobile, respond to the same impulses by staying. In addition to identifying macro factors such as the social, economic, and political environment, studies also focus on individual attributes, referring to individuals’ social and socio- demographic status as well as family and community ties (Schewel 2020). The models suggest that individual aspirations, considerations, Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 133 and calculations form a construct with the interpretations of previous migration impulses in the immediate social context, which then deter- mines how much and in which ways individual socio-demographic fac- tors (gender, age, etc.) shape (im)mobility aspirations (Carling 2002). Empirical analyses of the factors influencing immobility focus mainly on adult individuals. Empirically, studies show that immobile adults tend to be older (Zaiceva 2004; Fernández-Carro & Evandrou 2014), they are culturally diverse, more often female (Morrison et al. 2007; Mata- Codesal 2017), more likely to live in a rural setting (Creighton 2013), and have lower cultural capital (Debray et al. 2023). Research also detects that they are more closely connected to local social networks, more religious, and have higher levels of trust in social institutions (Hagan & Ebaugh 2003; Debray et al. 2023). Analyses that consider majority- minority affiliation, defined by citizenship, among individual attributes, focus on differences between ethnic minorities and the majority white population. Research shows that ethnic minorities are more likely to be immobile than their white counterparts, which is mostly explained by labour market and social ethnic discrimination (Kass & Manger 2012; Coulter 2013). We also know from analyses of the immobility aspira- tions of highly educated individuals that aspirations to stay are not favoured by more successful higher education, with more successful students having lower aspirations to immobility (Corcoran & Faggian 2017). International research has therefore identified a number of in- dividual factors that play a role in the development of immobility strat- egies, particularly among adults. However, studies examining the age cohort of tertiary students have received relatively little attention so far, and studies analysing individual factors determining immobility within the same population group but in different social contexts, majority and minority, based on citizenship status are rare (Haug 2000). When examining the (im)mobility of minority Hungarians, it is es- sential to mention the case of Hungarian-Hungarian migration, i.e. the migration of minority Hungarians to Hungary. This phenomenon is a specific form of international migration and has a significant impact on the social and economic structure of the region (Kincses 2023). Since the aim of our research is to explore the factors determining (im)mobil- ity decisions, we treat Hungarian-Hungarian migration in the same way as any other migration process to any other destination country. The focus of our study is on immobility, so we do not directly include the destination country of migration decisions in our analysis. Based on the theoretical and empirical findings presented above, our analysis aims to identify the individual, academic, and institutional TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 134 factors which support students in developing their immobility strategy. We formulate our hypotheses based on previous theoretical models and the results of international research. H1 Due to the unfavourable economic situation in the Hungarian mi- nority regions of Central Europe, the low labour market activity of the communities, and the different linguistic-cultural environment (Bárdi 2017; Szanyi & Susánszky 2018), we assume that students in minority communities have lower aspirations to stay compared to students in majority communities. H2 We hypothesise that older people and those from rural backgrounds are more likely to be characterised by a tendency towards immobil- ity. H3 We assume that individuals’ embeddedness in the community and an extensive social network provide them with social capital which supports staying. H4 We assume that those who perform better in their studies have lower immobility aspirations than their less successful counterparts. H5 We assume that students’ high degree of trust in institutions and role partners supports staying. 3. Research Methods The analysis relied on the empirical research database PERSIST 2019. 3 The underlying survey was conducted in the 2018/2019 academic year as part of the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) project no. 123847 titled The Role of Social and Organisational Factors in Student Attrition by the University of Debrecen Center for Higher Educational Research and Development (CHERD-H). The survey involved 2,199 Hungarian higher education students in the Carpathian Basin, one of the easternmost higher education regions of the Euro- pean Higher Education Area. We analysed Hungarian-language higher education institutions and institutional units in Romania, Ukraine, Ser- bia, and Slovakia (Babeş-Bolyai University (BBTE), Emanuel University of Oradea, Ferenc Rákóczi II Transcarpathian Hungarian College of Higher Education, Constantine the Philosopher University in Nitra, Mukachevo State University, University of Oradea, Partium Christian University (PKE), Sapientia Hungarian University of Transylvania, J. Selye University, University of Novi Sad, Uzhhorod National University) together with Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 135 institutions in Eastern Hungary (University of Debrecen, University of Nyíregyháza, Debrecen Reformed Theological University, Saint Athana- sius Greek Catholic Theological College) because the social composition of the latter institutions is the most similar in Hungary to the examined institutions outside Hungary. Sampling was based on the data provided by the institutions. The sample from Hungary is representative of the target population in terms of faculty, field of study, and form of funding. In our analysis, we consider the students in the Hungarian sample as majority students (N = 1,034). Students from Slovakia, Romania, Ser- bia, and Ukraine were minority Hungarian students (N = 768). These students were surveyed in their university/college courses in randomly selected groups (N = 1,165). The database included full-time bachelor’s students in their second year and second-year or third-year students from undivided programmes offering a master’s degree (in institutional units with a small number of students, students in higher years were also included in the sample) (Kovács & Pusztai 2024). We performed statistical analyses using the SPSS 22 statistical software package. We applied descriptive statistical analyses, the chi- squared test, and CHAID (chi-square automatic interaction detector) analysis. We used logistic regression to estimate which of these factors made it more or less likely that a student belonged to the group with immobility plans. 4. Measurements 4.1 Dependent Variable 4.1.1 Immobility Aspiration In our analysis, we examine students’ (im)mobility behaviour in terms of their (im)mobility aspirations. This is because, on the one hand, social psychology concepts consider an individual’s aspirations and intentions as a determinant of their actual behaviour (De Jong et al. 1985; Van Dalen & Henkens 2008; Creighton 2013), while on the other, plans represent a valid, statistically verifiable indicator of (im)mobility aspirations, since the results of a 2019 study covering more than 160 countries showed that a 1% increase in the number of people planning to migrate increased actual migration between the same countries by 0.75% (Carling 2019; Tjaden 2021). On this basis, the following question was used to determine stu- dents’ (im)mobility aspirations: “Do you plan to work abroad after TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 136 graduating?” The answers related to planning and its timing, or con- versely, to the lack of planning: (1) Yes, I would like to settle abroad permanently; (2) Yes, I would like to work abroad in the long term; (3) Yes, I would like to work abroad in the short term; (4) I definitely do not want to work abroad; (5) I do not know. Based on Carling’s model, we classified students who planned to work abroad after graduation as those with mobility aspirations, and students who had no such plans as those with immobility aspirations (Carling 2019). We classified students into groups based on their responses regarding mobility aspirations and found that 53.4 percent of students (N = 2,210) planned to stay, or in other words, aspired to immobility. We present our results for this group of students. The results showed a statistically significant difference between the student groups. Cell values for residuals adjusted for sample size showed that among those with immobility aspirations, majority students were overrepresented, while among those with mobility aspirations, minor- ity students were more common than expected (Table 2). Table 2: Majority-minority students by mobility plans (%) Minorities (N = 762) Majority (N = 1038) Immobility aspirations 49.6** 55.1** Mobility aspirations 50.4** 44.9** Total 100 100 Source: PERSIST (N = 2,210). **p ≤ 0.01; values in bold indicate a significantly higher proportion than implied by a random distribution; adjusted residuals > 2. 4.2 Independent Variables 4.2.1 Socio-Economic and Demographic Characteristics We included seven basic socio-economic and demographic measures in our analysis: respondents’ gender, age, type of municipality of resi- dence at age 14, stability of their financial situation, parental status, parents’ education, and work experience abroad. To ensure the success of the analysis, the continuous variable of respondents’ age was cat- egorised by CHAID analysis based on the target variable of (im)mobility aspiration: group of 19 years old or younger, 20–23 years old, and 24 years old or older. These age categories were included in the multivari- ate analysis. Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 137 4.2.2 Characteristics of the Social Network Students’ social capital was examined in several dimensions. We ana- lysed the specific type of social capital they can access through their religiosity and membership in religious communities. Religiousness was examined using self-classification. Respondents were asked to identify the statement that best describes themselves: (1) I am religious; (2) I try to follow the teachings of my church; (3) I am religious in my own way; (4) I cannot say whether I am religious or not; (5) I am not religious; (6) I am definitely not religious; (7) I have different beliefs. Their religious affiliation was measured by personal (frequency of prayer) and com- munal (church attendance) religious practice. The next dimension of students’ social capital is the inter- and intra-generational communication patterns that show the institutional embeddedness of higher education. We differentiated between rela- tionships with peers, classmates, and lecturers when examining con- tact patterns. Respondents were asked to indicate whether they had a lecturer at their current higher education institution with whom they: (1) discuss course material and academic issues outside of class time; (2) discuss topics other than course material; (3) discuss fiction, talk about literature, art; (4) talk about public issues; (5) talk about personal problems; (6) talk about future plans; (7) is in regular contact by email; (8) pay attention to personal career development; (9) play sports, talk about healthy lifestyle. Intragenerational relationship patterns were measured by the fol- lowing question. Respondents indicated whether they have a friend among their fellow students with whom they: (1) discuss their aca- demic problems;, (2) discuss their personal problems; (3) regularly spend free time together; (4) discuss their plans for the future; (5) visit or call when ill; (6) ask to borrow a book or notes; (7) discuss academic issues; (8) discuss reading, culture, public issues; (9) discuss art; (10) study together; (11) play sports together. In both cases, the different ways of communication were combined and included as an index in the analysis. 4.2.3 Academic Characteristics Our analysis included several dimensions of academic performance. On the one hand, we measured students’ academic performance with 19 questions covering their participation in the Scientific Students’ Asso- ciations Conference or National Scientific Students’ Associations Con- TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 138 ference, research group membership, publications, scholarship awards, participation in talent support programmes, membership in colleges for advanced studies, plans to obtain a doctoral degree, etc. The individual items measuring students’ academic performance were aggregated (mean: 2.67; standard deviation: 2.63) and the resulting academic performance index was used for further analysis. On the other hand, students were also asked about interruptions in their learning path (i.e., either normal progress or interrupted, delayed progress) and the ac- quisition of an advanced language certificate (having or not having an advanced language certificate). Our analysis also included an indicator of students’ trust in their institutions and role partners. Respondents were asked to rate on a four-point Likert scale how much they trust: (1) the university/college management; (2) university/college faculty management; (3) univer- sity/college administrators; (4) university/college lecturers; (5) major- ity of fellow students; (6) university/college student government; (7) university/college faculty student government; (8) electronic learning system message senders. A composite trust index (mean: 22.49; stan- dard deviation: 4.89) was also produced based on the responses. 5. Results The main question of this analysis was to identify the socio-demograph- ic, social network-related, and academic variables described above that made immobility aspirations more or less likely for minority and ethnic minority students. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis with students’ immobility aspirations (0 = planning to migrate; 1 = not planning to migrate). Based on the results of the models, we found significant differences between minority and majority students. For minority students, living in a village before the age of 14 and not having worked abroad significant- ly increase the chances of staying at home. Among majority Hungarian students, the perception of the stability of their financial situation, the low educational level of their mother/guardian, and the lack of work experience abroad play a decisive role in increasing the chances of stay- ing in the area. Of particular note is the positive relationship between financial stability and planning to stay at home, as the questions mea- suring stability included an option to answer if the situation improved. Among the indicators of social embeddedness, personal religious practice positively increased the odds of planning immobility for mi- norities. Intragenerational ties had a significant effect in both groups, Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 139 but in a negative direction, i.e. they reduced the probability of planning to stay at home. Among the variables related to academic career, we found signifi- cant effects only for majority students. Fields of study that prepare stu- dents for local professions, such as law and teacher training, and the lack of a higher level language exam increase the chances of staying in the country. One of the key findings of our analysis is that for both groups of students, trust in the higher education institution and role partners has a strong positive effect on the intention to stay at home. Table 3: Results of the logistic regression model with respect to immobility aspirations of minority students (0 = planning to migrate: n = 355; 1 = not planning to migrate: n = 369) Coeffi- cient (B) Standard error (SE) Wald Signifi - cance Oddsratios Exp(B) Constant -2.243 1.039 4.664 .031 .106 Socio-demographic factors Gender (0 = male; 1 = female) .494 .306 2.606 .106 1.639 Age (1 = under 19; 0 = not) -.439 .527 .695 .405 .644 Age (1 = over 24; 0 = not) .548 .427 1.648 .199 1.731 Place of residence (1 = rural; 0 = not) .518 .243 4.541 .033 1.678 Place of residence (1 = urban; 0 = not) -.120 .322 .140 .708 .886 Financial situation (0 = unstable; 1 = stable) .286 .246 1.349 .246 1.331 Has children (0 = no; 1 = yes) .605 .786 .593 .441 1.832 Mother’s educational attainment: tertiary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) .176 .300 .344 .557 1.192 Father’s educational attainment: tertiary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) .025 .326 .006 .939 1.025 Mother’s educational attainment: primary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) .202 .260 .602 .438 1.223 Father’s educational attainment: primary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) -.105 .250 .177 .674 .900 No work experience abroad (0 = has work experience abroad; 1 = no work experience abroad) .859 .355 5.851 .016 2.362 Social network Religiosity (0 = does not follow the teachings of a church; 1 = follows the teachings of a church) .320 .275 1.350 .245 1.377 Personal religious practice (1 = prays several times a day; 0 = less often) .562 .359 2.449 .118 1.755 TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 140 Community religious practice (1 = goes to church several times a week; 0 = less often) .236 .471 .251 .617 1.266 Intergenerational contact with instructors (index: 0–9) .002 .042 .003 .954 1.002 Intragenerational contact with peers (index: 0–11) -.134 .042 10.111 .001 .874 Academic performance Legal training (0 = no; 1 = legal training) .789 .922 .732 .392 2.201 Teacher education (0 = no; 1 = teacher education) .070 .225 .096 .756 1.072 Learning path (0 = interrupted; 1 = stable progress) .016 .530 .001 .976 1.016 Academic performance (index: 0–19) -.049 .049 .985 .321 .953 No advanced language certificate (0 = has such a certificate; 1 = does not have such a certificate) -.100 .438 .052 .819 .905 Institutional trust Institutional trust (index: 0–32) .066 .023 8.229 .004 1.068 Source: PERSIST (N = 2,210). The model is significant at the p < 0.05 level; the -2lnL fit indicator decreased from 620.739 to 563.387; Nagelkerke pseudo R2 = 0.160; Cox & Snell R2 = 0.120; Hosmer and Lemeshow test 0.803 (p > 0.05) indicates a good model fit. The regression was carried out using the Enter variable selection method (METHOD = ENTER). Values of the odds ratio Exp(B) above one indicate a higher chance of inclusion and values be- low one a lower chance of inclusion relative to the reference group. Table 4: Results of the logistic regression model with respect to immobility aspirations of majority students (0 = planning to migrate: n = 423; 1 = not plan- ning to migrate: n = 615) Coeffi- cient (B) Standard error (SE) Wald Signifi - cance Oddsratios Exp(B) Constant -2.263 .757 8.937 .003 .104 Socio-demographic factors Gender (0 = male; 1 = female) -.137 .173 .621 .431 .872 Age (1 = under 19; 0 = not) -1.422 .985 2.082 .149 .241 Age (1 = over 24; 0 = not) .534 .340 2.473 .116 1.707 Place of residence (1 = rural; 0 = not) .435 .215 4.113 .043 1.545 Place of residence (1 = urban; 0 = not) -.030 .192 .024 .878 .971 Financial situation (0 = unstable; 1 = stable) .889 .207 18.511 .000 2.432 Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 141 Has children (0 = no; 1 = yes) 4 19.859 13229.839 .000 .999 421547441.879 Mother’s educational attainment: tertiary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) .381 .201 3.603 .058 1.464 Father’s educational attainment: tertiary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) -.114 .223 .261 .609 .892 Mother’s educational attainment: primary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) .624 .242 6.670 .010 1.867 Father’s educational attainment: primary education (0 = no; 1 = yes) -.267 .210 1.609 .205 .766 No work experience abroad (0 = has work experience abroad; 1 = no work experience abroad) 1.472 .417 12.452 .000 4.356 Social network Religiosity (0 = does not follow the teachings of a church; 1 = follows the teachings of a church) .093 .275 .114 .735 1.097 Personal religious practice (1 = prays several times a day; 0 = less often) .984 .470 4.392 .036 2.676 Community religious practice (1 = goes to church several times a week; 0 = less often) .387 .617 .392 .531 1.472 Intergenerational contact with instructors (index: 0–9) -.039 .033 1.397 .237 .962 Intragenerational contact with peers (index: 0–11) -.110 .036 9.204 .002 .896 Academic performance Legal training (0 = no; 1 = legal training) 1.083 .413 6.877 .009 2.954 Teacher education (0 = no; 1 = teacher education) 1.092 .212 26.437 .000 2.980 Learning path (0 = interrupted; 1 = s progress) .003 .351 .000 .994 1.003 Academic performance (index: 0–19) -.073 .047 2.420 .120 .930 No advanced language certificate (0 = has such a certificate; 1 = does not have such a certificate) .566 .236 5.736 .017 1.762 Institutional trust Institutional trust (index: 0–32) .030 .017 3.258 .071 1.031 Source: PERSIST (N = 2,210). The model is significant at the p < 0.05 level; the -2lnL fit indicator decreased from 1029.769 to 901.732; Nagelkerke pseudo R2 = 0.209; Cox & Snell R2 = 0.155; Hosmer and Lemeshow test 0.926 (p > 0.05) indicates a good model fit. The regression was TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 142 carried out using the Enter variable selection method (METHOD = ENTER). Values of the odds ratio Exp(B) above one indicate a higher chance of inclusion and values be- low one a lower chance of inclusion relative to the reference group. 6. Summary In this study, we aimed to identify the socio-demographic, social network-related, and academic determinants of migration aspirations among minority and majority Hungarian higher education students in Central Europe. Based on Carling’s concept, we joined the line of re- search that interprets immobility as an individual strategy, determined by individuals’ aspirations and abilities. The results of bivariate analysis confirmed our hypothesis that mi- nority status makes plans to stay less likely, which is presumably ex- plained by the relatively unfavourable economic situation of the Hun- garian minority regions in Central Europe, the low labour market activity of the communities, and the different linguistic-cultural environment. As with several other areas of research, empirical analyses on mi- gration have detected gender differences and explored the different effects at play behind the phenomenon (Boyd & Grieco 2003). Despite the fact that many more men migrate worldwide (International Orga- nization for Migration & United Nations, 2000, 7), women increasingly have the possibility of developing an autonomous migration strategy based on conscious choice, and are not characterised by chain migra- tion alone (Gödri 2005). According to gender-focused explanations of migration, gender differences in mobility are related to different gen- der role perceptions specific to a given socio-cultural context, which could even override the effect of macroeconomic factors on migration. Gender differences in (im)mobility are thus strongly influenced by the different role perceptions determined by the social context as well as by the immediate environment and the family, a notable example of which is caring for the elderly, which is mostly carried out by women (De Jong 2000). Previous surveys of students in the region clearly showed a de- creasing share of university students identifying with traditional gender roles and an increasing share identifying with modern gender roles (Fényes & Pusztai 2020). Our data also confirmed this, as there was no significant gender difference in university students’ immobility aspira- tions. One may draw the cautious but statistically sound conclusion that our data can refute the experience often presented in international re- search that mobility reflects a specific dimension of gender inequality. Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 143 Previous research clearly shows that age also affects individuals’ mobility aspirations. Older people are less mobile, mainly due to the fact that they have had more opportunities to become embedded in the community and to acquire location-specific cultural and economic knowledge. The longer individuals live in a place, the stronger their ties to their community and that place (Fischer & Malmberg 1997). Some researchers argue that the duration of time spent in the home country is the best predictor of positive emotional attitudes and attachment to the home country and its residents, thus supporting immobility aspi- rations (Lewicka 2011). Although our bivariate analysis found a signifi- cant relationship between age and immobility aspirations, the logistic regression model with other variables included did not find age to be a determinant of the chances of immobility, so our second hypothesis had to be partially rejected. The results of previous studies in the region clearly show that an im- portant indicator of students’ social status is how the place of residence ranks in the hierarchy of settlements (Pusztai & Márkus 2019). Living in a small settlement is a disadvantage in terms of access to educational institutions, cultural opportunities, and possibly job opportunities. Our results show that the village lifestyle increases the aspirations of minor- ity Hungarian students to stay in the village, which may be explained by the settlement structure of minority Hungarian regions. In line with other research findings, the sample has a high proportion of minority students from lower-ranking settlements in the settlement hierarchy (Veres 2023). The second hypothesis concerning settlement type is therefore only valid for minority students. Individuals’ (im)mobility aspirations are guided by several factors other than rational economic considerations of utility maximisation (Schewel 2020), but financial considerations are undoubtedly part of the decision-making process. A remarkable result of our analysis is that the perception of financial stability and predictability doubles the likeli- hood of planning to stay at home among majority Hungarian students. Empirical research on the phenomenon of immobility clearly identi- fies family relationships as a factor in staying, with evidence showing that having children makes staying more likely (Mulder & Malmberg 2014). However, the values of our logistic regression model are incon- clusive in this case, presumably due to the small number of elements. A key dimension of students’ social background is their parents’ educational attainment. In all examined minority and majority Hungar- ian regions, those with a tertiary degree are underrepresented (Bocsi TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 144 et al. 2022). In our study, only one in three students had parents who had completed tertiary education, with another third on their path to become first-generation graduates. This specific situation motivated our research question about the role of family influences in students’ immobility aspirations. In accordance with previous research, we found evidence of the importance of impulses from mothers and stepmoth- ers, but only for majority students. A noteworthy result of our study is that for both groups of students, work experience abroad reduces the chances of planning to stay in the country. This is because even a short period of work experience abroad can provide students with intercultural skills and abilities that greatly increase the chances of future successful interactions with individuals from other ethnic or cultural groups. Research on (im)mobility often finds that individuals’ embedded- ness in social networks and the social context surrounding them has a significant impact on (im)mobility decisions. According to the affin- ity hypothesis, close ties to peers, friends, and community members support aspirations to stay (Haug 2008). Schewel goes so far as to say that social capital helps explain why, despite rational arguments, people consider “home” to be a better place to live than “elsewhere” (Schewel 2020, 340). In our case, the study of religiosity and religious practice is also crucial because of the empirical evidence that participation in local religious communities, i.e. “location-specific religious capital”, can affect immobility decisions (Myers 2000, 757) as churches and other places of religious practice represent local community-oriented institu- tions in people’s lives (Irwin et al. 2004). According to our data, there is a correlation between religious practice and immobility only for the majority students surveyed: their personal religious practice increases the chances of staying at home. Among the other variables, the embed- dedness in the network of peer relationships still has an impact on the propensity to stay at home, and this is the case for all students, but the odds ratios seem to have a negative impact on the propensity to stay at home for both minority and majority students. Our results therefore only partially support our third hypothesis. Empirical research on the migration of graduates finds that individu- als’ human capital is correlated with their (im)mobility aspirations. Suc- cessful students, i.e. those who graduate with good grades from presti- gious universities, have a higher propensity for mobility as the return to migration may be higher and the risks lower for them compared to their less successful peers (Baryla & Dotterweich 2001; Corcoran & Faggian 2017). This suggests that immobility is more likely with a less successful Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ... 145 higher education career. Based on our results, we have to reject our fourth hypothesis: there was no significant correlation between the variables measuring academic achievement and immobility aspirations in any of the student groups. At the same time, however, fields of study that prepare students for local professions increase the decision to stay several times more. Previous analyses of international migration already demonstrate that trust in formal social institutions is related to the propensity to migrate. Empirical evidence shows that perceptions of the inadequate functioning of social institutions and a loss of trust may lead to migra- tion (Baudassé et al. 2018; Golovics 2018). Analyses on institutional integration in higher education also agree that trust influences and often determines students’ behaviour within and outside the institu- tion (Dzimińska et al. 2018; Pusztai 2011; 2018), while also affecting students’ social skills, social network patterns, value systems, academic performance, successful graduation, volunteering, and even health behaviour. Among Hungarian higher education students in Central Eu- rope, for example, empirical evidence shows that a loss of trust leads to drop-out and departure from the institution (Pusztai 2011; 2018). Nev- ertheless, the relationship between students’ migration plans and trust in higher education institutions is an understudied area of research. Our analysis confirmed our hypothesis that higher levels of institutional trust among students make it more likely that both majority and minor- ity students plan to stay. 7. Conclusion In our study, we investigated the individual and institutional factors supporting the immobility aspirations of Hungarian higher education students in Central Europe. Our analysis adopted a novel approach, focusing on an age cohort of young people in higher education, a less studied target group in previous international research, and distinguish- ing between groups of students within the same population but with different citizenship status. In this way, our results not only enriched the academic discourse analysing the migration decisions of Central European Hungarians, but also contributed to a more nuanced under- standing and application of aspiration/ability models. Our results clearly show that the immobility aspirations of minority and majority Hungar- ian students are influenced differently by various individual factors. The most important result of our study is that, in addition to the so- ciodemographic individual and network characteristics already known TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 146 from previous international empirical studies, factors related to higher education institutions also influence young people’s (im)mobility deci- sions, and that a higher level of trust towards higher education institu- tions and role partners encourages both minority and majority young people who have already graduated to stay at home after completing their studies. The results of this thesis should be interpreted in accordance with the limitations of the methodology. We are aware that, from a migration perspective, the cohort of tertiary students can be considered a special group, because their higher education may inherently lead to a higher propensity to migrate compared to the adult population. We also antici- pate that, due to possible selection bias in the minority student popula- tion on which the sample is based, minority students studying in higher education institutions may have higher aspirations to remain in the country than their counterparts studying in non-Hungarian-speaking institutions. Furthermore, we are also aware that the results of the data analysis only show whether and in what direction the factors included have an impact on students’ immobility aspirations, i.e. our analysis does not provide a complete explanation for understanding the migra- tion strategies of Hungarian students in Central Europe. 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IZA World of Labor 99, doi: doi:10.15185/izawol.99 Notes 1 According to UN data from 2020, only 3.6% of the world’s population has taken part in migration (United Nations 2020). 2 The theoretical frameworks discussed above do not conceptualise forced mi- gration due to the argument that all migration involves individuals’ choices (Carling 2002). 3 The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding authors, but restrictions apply to their availability. These were used under license for the current study, and, so, are not accessible by the public. Data are however available from the corresponding authors upon reasonable request and with permission of the School Ethics Committee of Doctoral Program on Educational Sciences at the University of Debrecen. 4 Only 0.9% (9 people) of the majority Hungarian student sub-sample have children. The outlier for this variable in the model is related to the low number of items. Acknowledgement Project no. 123847 has been implemented with the support provided from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund of Hun- gary, financed under the K_17 funding scheme. TREATISES AND DOCUMENTS JOURNAL OF ETHNIC STUDIES 94 / 2025 152 Kdo raje ostane? Individualni in institucionalni dejavniki, ki vplivajo na nemobilnost študentov pripadnikov madžarske manjšine Izvleček Članek na podlagi modelov, ki so jih razvili J. Carling, de Haas in K. Schewel, preučuje nemobilnost oziroma težnje madžarskih študentov, tako pripadnikov večine kot manjšine, da po zaključku študija ostanejo v domačem okolju. Namen članka je opredeliti individualne in institucio- nalne dejavnike, zaradi katerih študenti ne načrtujejo selitve v tujino. Analiza temelji na empiričnih podatkih, pridobljenih leta 2019 s po- močjo ankete med študenti visokošolskih institucij z madžarskim učnim jezikom na Madžarskem in Slovaškem ter v Ukrajini, Romuniji in Srbiji (N=2,210). Rezultati multivariatne in logistične regresijske analize kažejo, da na nemobilnost vplivajo družbeno-demografski dejavniki in socialna omrežja, pa tudi institucionalni in akademski dejavniki, kot so izobraževalni programi, ki študente pripravljajo na lokalne poklice, ter večja stopnja zaupanja v visokošolsko institucijo in ključne akterje. Ključne besede kulturna inkluzivnost, izobraževalna infrastruktura, raznolikost, družbeno sožitje, vključenost Z. SüTő Who Prefers to Stay? Individual and Institutional Factors Supporting Immobility among Minority ...