2023/1 PERFECTUS AC 2 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Kontakti revije Poštni naslov Uredništvo revije Perfectus AC Svetovanje in izobraževanje, dr. Andrej Raspor, s. p. Dolga Poljana 57 5271 Vipava, SI Slovenija E-pošta: zalozba.perfectus@gmail.com Telefon: 00386 51 313 221 Glavni urednik Darko Lacmanović, Črna gora Odgovorna urednika Pedja Ašanin Gole, Slovenija Sašo Murtič, Slovenija Uredniški odbor revije (ABC) Andrej Raspor, Slovenija Pedja Ašanin Gole, Slovenija Anton Vorina, Slovenija Sašo Murtič, Slovenija Ninoslav Gregurić – Bajza, Hrvaška Darko Lacmanović, Črna gora Milenko Radoman, Črna gora Bill Nichols, Velika Britanija Žaneta Trajkoska, Severna Makedonija Milica Slijepčević, Srbija Admir I. Beganović, Bosna in Hercegovina Svitlana Pryshchenko, Ukrajina Uroš Pinterič, Slovaška Sanja Vlahovič, Italija Elez Osmani, Albanija Jezikovni pregled (ABC) Bojan Macuh, slovenski jezik Darko Lacmanović, bosanski, črnogorski, hrvaški jezik Pedja Ašanin Gole, srbski jezik Naslovnica https://www.hloom.com/resources/templates/cover- pages/creative-design Arhiv revij http://www.andrejraspor.com/perfectus_zalozba https://www.perfectus.si/ojs2/index.php/perfectusac Od 2018 - Mednarodna standardna serijska številka (on line) ISSN 2738-4586. Področje in opis revije Revija Perfectus AC je interdisciplinarna znanstvena revija, ki objavlja prispevke s področja kadrov, turizma, odprtih inovacij, organizacije in menedžmenta v povezavi z industrijo 4.0. Vsebina ni omejena zgolj na navedene tematske sklope, ampak smo za vaše predloge odprti. Še posebej želimo objavljati prispevke, ki obravnavajo nove in aktualne teme in predstavljajo znanstvene dosežke v razvoju ter njihovo uvajanje in uporabo v praksi. Vsled tega objavljamo tudi tematske številke. Zato vas vabimo, da se nam pridružite. Pogostost izhajanja Revija Perfectus AC izhaja dvakrat letno. Tematske revije pa izhajajo po potrebi. Politika za prosti dostop Revija Perfectus AC omogoča odprt dostop do svojih vsebin, ki temelji na načelu odprtih inovacij, po katerem bi prosto dostopni rezultati javnosti omogočile večjo globalno izmenjavo znanja. Navodila avtorjem V reviji Perfectus AC objavljamo znanstvene članke, rezultate raziskovalnega dela avtorjev. Prispevki so lahko napisani v slovenskem, angleškem, hrvaškem, bosanskem, srbskem (latinica), črnogorskem jeziku. Objavljamo izključno dela, ki še niso bila objavljena v znanstveni obliki v kakšni drugi reviji ali zborniku. Avtorji so odgovorni za vse morebitne kršitve avtorskih pravic. Prispevki niso honorirani. Objava prispevkov se ne zaračunava. Besedilo naj bo oblikovano po navodilih (interesenti nam pišite, da vam posredujemo predlogo z bolj podrobnimi navodili). Na začetku prispevka, takoj za naslovom v originalnem in angleškem jeziku naj bo povzetek dolžine do 10 vrstic z do 5 ključnimi besedami. Članek naj obsega do 10 strani brez povzetkov, virov in prilog. Predložite tudi sliko in kratek strokovni življenjepis vsakega od avtorjev (do 10 vrstic). Članki morajo biti pred objavo lektorirani. Avtorji so odgovorni za jezikovno ustreznost. Ne uporabljajte opomb v besedilu. Eventualne opombe, ki naj bodo kratke, navedite na dnu besedila skupaj z literaturo. Seznam citirane literature oblikujte po APA-standardu. Na koncu prispevka so navedeni po abecednem redu. V kolikor je možno navedite DOI številko. Predložene prispevke pregledata in ocenita najmanj dva neodvisna recenzenta. Na osnovi mnenj in predlogov recenzentov uredniški odbor ali urednik sprejmeta prispevek, zahtevata manjše ali večje popravke in dopolnitve ali ga zavrneta. Če urednik oz. recenzenti predlagajo večje popravke, se dopolnjeni prispevek praviloma pošlje v ponovno recenzijo. Podrobna navodila najdete na: http://www.andrejraspor.com/perfectus_zalozba 3 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Iz vsebine stran POMEN POPRODAJNIH AKTIVNOSTI V TRŽENJU MEDICINSKIH PRIPOMOČKOV PREKO JAVNIH NAROČIL .................................................... 5 Tina Vukasović ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Anita Sluga ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 THE IMPORTANCE OF AFTER-SALES ACTIVITIES IN THE MARKETING OF MEDICAL PRODUCTS THROUGH PUBLIC PROCUREMENT ............. 5 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Literature review ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Materials and methods .............................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Conceptual framework and hypotheses development ............................................................................................................................ 8 Sample and procedure ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Research methodology ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Results and findings .................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 AVTOGENI TRENING – TEHNIKA UČINKOVITEGA SPOPRIJEMANJA Z ANKSIOZNOSTJO V POST COVIDNEM OBDOBJU ............................... 16 Nevenka Podgornik ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Pascale Emily Pečnik ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Mineja P. Pulec.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 AUTOGENIC TRAINING - A TECHNIQUE FOR EFFECTIVELY OVERCOMING ANXIETY IN THE POST COVID PERIOD ........................................ 16 Uvod ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Obdobje adolescence in čustvena stabilnost ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Anksioznost pri otrocih in mladostnikih ................................................................................................................................................... 18 Predstavitev in uporaba metode avtogeni trening ................................................................................................................................... 18 Učinki avtogenega treninga na anksioznost ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Uporaba metode avtogeni trening v primeru anksioznosti v času epidemije covid-19 ........................................................................... 19 Študija primera ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Sklepna misel ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 SPREMEMBA VLADE IN NJEN VPLIV NA MEDIJSKO DEMOKRACIJO V MAKEDONIJI ..................................................................................... 23 Maja Blaževska-Evrosimoska ........................................................................................................................................................................ 23 Žaneta Trajkoska ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT CHANGE ON MEDIA FREEDOM IN NORTH MACEDONIA ........................................................................... 23 Introduction and literature review ........................................................................................................................................................... 24 2017 – the captured media outlets in the captured state ........................................................................................................................ 25 2023 - media environment in a familiar matrix ........................................................................................................................................ 25 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26 4 Perfectus AC 1/2023 ODPORNOST IGRALNIŠKE INDUSTRIJE NA KRIZNE RAZMERE ....................................................................................................................... 28 Darko Lacmanović ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Andrej Raspor ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 GAMING'S RESILIENCE IN TIMES OF CRISIS ................................................................................................................................................... 28 Uvod ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Raziskovalno področje .............................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Igre na srečo skozi zgodovino ................................................................................................................................................................ 29 Širitev iger na srečo po svetu ................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Svetovno igralništvo ............................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Krize ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Metodologija ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 31 Analiziranje podatkov z uporabo orodij Tableau ................................................................................................................................... 32 Ocena uspešnosti ................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Ugotovitve napovedovanja....................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Razprava o rezultatih ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 Odgovor na raziskovalna vprašanja ....................................................................................................................................................... 35 Praktična in originalna uporaba rezultatov ............................................................................................................................................ 36 Sklepna misel ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 "V OGNJU" (NAOMI KLEIN) – TEORETIČNE IN METODOLOŠKE KONCEPTUALIZACIJE ................................................................................... 38 Dušanka Slijepčević ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 "ON FIRE" (NAOMI KLEIN) – THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL CONCEPTUALIZATIONS ..................................................................... 38 „У ПЛАМЕНУ“ (НАОМИ КЛАЈН) – ТЕОРИЈСКО-МЕТОДОЛОШКЕ КОНЦЕПТУАЛИЗАЦИЈЕ ........................................................................ 42 5 Perfectus AC 1/2023 POMEN POPRODAJNIH AKTIVNOSTI V TRŽENJU MEDICINSKIH PRIPOMOČKOV PREKO JAVNIH NAROČIL Tina Vukasović https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1434-5291 1 Anita Sluga https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0861-7764 2 Prejem: 15. 4. 2023 Poslano v recenzijo: 20. 5. 2023 Sprejeto v objavo: 17. 8. 2023 Povzetek: Namen raziskave: Raziskati trženje medicinskih pripomočkov v javnem sektorju ter oceniti vpliv različnih trženjskih dejavnikov na uspešnost prodaje medicinskih pripomočkov javnim naročnikom, kot tudi določiti ključne dejavnike, ki vplivajo na nakupne odločitve javnih naročnikov. Metodologija: Kvantitativna raziskava s pomočjo strukturiranega anketnega vprašalnika. Vzorec 208 zaposlenih v laboratorijih zdravstvenih domov in bolnišnic. Ugotovitve: Vse proučevane spremenljivke so med seboj v pozitivni korelaciji. Spremenljivka "osebna prodaja" je pomemben dejavnik pri trženju medicinskih pripomočkov javnim naročnikom. Pomembne so tudi "poprodajne aktivnosti", kot so usposabljanje uporabnikov, tehnična podpora in vzdrževanje. Predstavljen je nov strukturni model povezav med proučevanimi elementi. Omejitve: Raziskava je bila izvedena v Sloveniji, rezultati morda niso posplošljivi za druga okolja. Vzorec ni bil reprezentativen za celotno populacijo zaposlenih v laboratorijih. Uporabljen je bil le anketni vprašalnik, niso bile uporabljene druge metode zbiranja podatkov. Praktične in družbene posledice: Rezultati raziskave lahko pomagajo podjetjem, ki se ukvarjajo s trženjem medicinskih pripomočkov javnemu sektorju, pri izboljšanju svojih trženjskih strategij. Ugotovitve lahko prispevajo k bolj učinkovitemu javnemu naročanju medicinskih pripomočkov. Raziskava lahko vpliva na izboljšanje kakovosti oskrbe bolnikov. Izvirnost: Predstavljen je nov strukturni model trženja medicinskih pripomočkov javnemu sektorju. Raziskava potrjuje pomembnost osebne prodaje in poprodajnih aktivnosti v tem sektorju. Rezultati zagotavljajo vpogled v nakupne odločitve javnih naročnikov medicinskih pripomočkov. Ključne besede: javna naročila, medicinski pripomočki, osebna prodaja, poprodajne aktivnosti, socialnovarstveni zavodi, marketinški splet. THE IMPORT ANCE OF AFTER-SALES ACTIVITIES IN THE MARKETING OF MEDICAL PRODUCTS THROUGH PUBLIC PROCUREMENT Summary: The purpose of the paper is to contribute to the knowledge in the field of marketing of medical devices in the public sector. A quantitative research method was used by means of a structured questionnaire. The target population of research is employed in laboratories in health centers and hospitals. We have obtained a sample of 208 respondents employed in these institutions. By conducting statistical analyses, we found that all the studied variables are in a positive correlation with each other and that the “Personal Sales” variable is equally important in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions through public procurement as the “After-Sales Activities” variable. The newly designed structural model of correlations between the studied elements, represents a new value both in the field of scientific research work as well as in the field of usability in practice. The research is a contribution to the fact that in the process of marketing products through public procurement, the same attention is devoted to the after-sales activities as to the design and development of new products, planning of marketing channels (distribution), marketing communication (promotion) and pricing. Keywords: public procurement, medical devices, personal sales, after-sales activities, social welfare institutions, marketing mix JEL Classification: M31Marketing Kategorizacija: Izvirni znanstveni članek Korespondenčni avtor: Tina Vukasović, tina.vukasovic@mfdps.si DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11035371 1 International School for Social and Business Studies, Mariborska cesta 7, 3000 Celje, Slovenia and University of Primorska, Faculty of Management, Izolska vrata 2, SI-6000 Koper, Slovenia, tina.vukasovic@mfdps.si 2 VenoFarmacija d.o.o., Ul. I štajerskega bataljona 7, SI-3000 Celje, Slovenia, anita.saso@gmail.com 6 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Introduction The healthcare sector consists of many industries including pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, equipment manufacturing, distribution, residential care facilities and managed healthcare. In the past few decades, the healthcare field has been grown exponentially because of increasing general awareness and globalization. However, in spite of this, the global healthcare sector is influenced by major hindrance from legislative and regulatory barriers, as well as globalization and expensive costs (Taddesse et al., 2015; Dixit et al., 2019). The healthcare industry is oriented toward domestic demand and is not affected by a poor economy (Shao and Ji, 2006; Bellazzi and Zupan, 2008). The global trends of aging populations, breakthroughs in biomedical technology and nanotechnology, and the innovation of new drugs, medical treatments and medical devices suggest that the healthcare industry is expected to grow (Shao and Ji, 2006). However, the presence of numerous economic entities, such as pharmaceutical companies, sales agents, medical distributors, and healthcare service providers creates a complex industrial environment (Davis, 2004; Chuang et al., 2013). The research focuses on the views of the actors involved, who are in our case employed in laboratories, hospitals and health centers. The studied variables were in this type of marketing presented as codependent variables, which influence the preparation of the tender documentation when marketing medical devices (blood collection devices) to social welfare institutions in which the sale is carried out through public procurement. The research problem is based on verifying the correlations between the elements of the 4P marketing mix, after-sales activities and their influence on the preparation of tender documentation in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions. The research question related to the research problem reads as follows: Do after-sales activities have at least as statistically significant influence on the preparation of the public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions as the elements of the marketing mix (product, price, promotion, distribution)? The marketing mix with the basic elements, as so far stated by many authors, applies to the marketing of the products that do not need to be marketed through public procurement. Different authors have already studied the marketing mix, but nobody has expanded it with the after-sales activity variable, where after-sales activities only begin after signing the contract. The results and findings of the research serve as a guidance to many companies in which they market more complex products of a higher price range, characterized by high quality. Literature review When reviewing the published research in accessible databases, we did not find any similar research that would connect the product, price, personal sales as a marketing and communication channel (distribution), and after-sales activities into a whole of influential factors in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions through public procurement. Various authors and experts in this area deal with these factors only individually as some kind of impact on a particular phenomenon; thus, we can note that the conceptual design of this research is new. The marketing mix management paradigm has dominated marketing thought, research and practice since it was introduced almost 56 years ago. Today, this paradigm is beginning to lose its position. New approaches have been emerging in marketing research. The globalization of business and the evolving recognition of the importance of customer retention and market economies and of customer relationship economics, among other trends, reinforce the change in mainstream marketing. The concept of a marketing mix based on the selected four elements (4P: product, price, market communication or promotion and marketing channel or distribution) is the most well-known and most criticized concept of marketing. The basic concept of the marketing mix had been too simple, especially when implementing marketing activities between businesses (B2B – Business to Business) and in the field of services; this was consequently followed by the development of the concept of a marketing mix by adding different P's. The basic parts of a firm’s promotional effort are advertising, sales promotion, personal selling, public relations, direct and digital marketing. Personal selling involves direct personal communications between a consumer and a salesperson, with the latter conveying the product or service benefits to the former. Salespersons are increasingly being perceived as an important contributor to a firm’s business success. Personal selling is an important promotion tool in that it can lead to a better relationship between the buyer and the seller (Fam and Merrilees, 1998). Johnston and Marshall (2003) believe that personal selling messages have the potential to be more persuasive than advertising or publicity due to the face-to-face communication with customers. With increasingly fragmented markets, the role of personal selling becomes extremely important (Jaramillo and Marshall, 2004). The role of personal selling will continue to be of overwhelming importance in the case of those companies operating in markets characterized by high volume customized goods and services (Jaramillo and Marshall, 2004). 7 Perfectus AC 1/2023 The evolution from basic products to nonstandardized, and in many cases highly technical products and intangible services, has required that selling activities evolve as well. Personal selling in health care is an example of selling nonstandardized, highly technical and intangible services. Promotion of health care has evolved from an emphasis on advertising to a current interest in personal selling (Bowers and Powers, 1991). In addition, increased competition and a demand for cost-cutting measures has prompted many health-care organizations to market their products through a salesforce. Along with public relations and planning research, sales is becoming a significant part of the marketing function of health-care organizations (Bowers and Powers, 1991; Mack and Burns, 1988; Bowers, Powers and Spencer, 1994). Below we describe the process of personal sales in the marketing of medical devices to social care institutions in the context of public procurement through the elements of the marketing mix and after-sales activities. The elements examined (product, price, personal sales in the context of distribution and sales promotion as marketing and communication channels and after-sales activities) are interlinked and influence the preparation of tender documents for the procurement of medical devices. The product plays an important role at the beginning of the personal sales process, which begins with the preparation of the approach to the potential customer. In the product launch phase, we should not forget to disclose brand information, especially if it is well established and recognizable in the market. Brand information is also important in the preparation of seminars and presentations, as well as in informing customers about new developments and finally in the preparation of a contract or agreement. in the preparation of the quotation with the technical requirements. The price is an important element of influence in the marketing of products by public procurement, as the Act on Public Procurement ZJN-3 (2015, Art. 84) defines the price as decisive for the selection of the offer, provided that all previously required criteria from the tender documents are met. However, they change or vary. determine with all other elements of the marketing mix. Advertising and distribution are the two elements of the marketing mix that influence the outcome of the selection of the bidder by the public procurement procedure in all the individual phases of the personal sales process. These two phases include all the decisive steps that the buyer decides on, with which he gets a picture of the product and the company and through which the invoice in the tender documents is created. After-sales activities - cover those parts of the phases that begin with monitoring and maintaining contacts, preparing customer analyzes, preparing seminars, informing customers and continuous visits to customers, preparing an invoice and finally signing a contract. At the end of this round, the after-sales activities resume the monitoring and maintenance of contacts and continue in the same order as before, regardless of whether we have a product supply contract or not. Hereinafter, we focus on one particular element, namely after-sales activities also called after sales services, which are supposed to be key in the purchasing behavior of consumers, who can purchase medical devices exclusively through public procurement, as required by the Public Procurement Act. Such marketing is different from the marketing where it is not necessary to market products through public procurement, in particular it differs in the part that follows the signing of the framework agreement or contract. After the signing of the cooperation agreement between the supplier and the contracting authority, the obligation of the supplier to the customer is not terminated, instead by signing the mutual agreement, this obligation only starts in the aftermath of after-sales activities (monitoring and maintenance of contacts, preparation of seminars, informing about novelties). After-sales activities are the activities that companies use to draw attention to themselves when they have already concluded contracts with the buyers. The mentioned method of market communication is typical of the sale through public procurement, where contracts can be concluded for one to up to four years. In the meantime, companies have to continue with their active cooperation with the buyers though the after-sales activities, and in this way, they constantly draw their buyers’ attention to their products as well as to innovations. After-sales activities are important in the marketing of medical devices through public procurement and consist of several successive phases (Figure 1). Monitoring and maintenance of contacts is the first phase, by which we offer the buyer an unconditional guarantee in terms of effective resolving of complaints and constant search for solutions for the buyer. When visiting the buyers, it is necessary to obtain as much information as possible about the products used, competition, satisfaction, price, and their expectations (Phase 2). Occasionally, we need to prepare lectures or seminars on the novelties in which we get buyers closer to our products, present their advantages and potential innovations, and at the same time draw their attention to ourselves (Phases 3, 4 and 5). If we have been successful and have convinced the buyers of the quality and advantages of our products as well as services, we have also managed to instill in them the need for these products. At the next publication of the tender documentation and the budget, the buyers will set the criteria according to their needs and wishes (Phase 6). Submission of the bid will only be possible if we are the type of provider who meets the requirements of the budget and the requirements of the tender documentation. Then follows the last phase (Phase 7), which is the completion of the sale or signature of the contract, which depends on all the previous phases. After signing or not signing the contract, all the aforementioned phases (1-6) are still indispensable, because if companies are not present on the market (personal sales), the competition gets ahead of them and convinces the buyer of the quality and advantages of their products. Some phases of after-sales activities (monitoring and maintaining contacts, informing customers about news, customer visits) can only be successfully carried out through personal marketing. 8 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Figure 1: The process of after-sales activities in the marketing of medical devices through public procurement Public procurement refers to “the acquisition of goods and services by government or public sector organizations” (Uyarra and Flanagan, 2010) and is one of the key economic activities of government (Thai, 2001). In spite of its long history and significant scale, public procurement has only relatively recently been the subject of considerable academic research (Trionfetti, 2000; Brulhart and Trionfetti, 2004; Brammer and Walker, 2011). Public procurement is subject to special rules in order to secure those goods and services are acquired at competitive prices. Transparency is needed. EU directive 2004/18/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of March 31, 2004 concerning the coordination of procedures for the award of public works’ contracts, public supply contracts, and public service contracts (The Public Procurement Directive) regulates this need with a high emphasis on transparent, competitive procedures. The objective is fair and open competition. Obtaining the best prices also establishes a substantial part of companies’ purchasing in the private sector (Arlbjørn and Freytag, 2012). Materials and methods Conceptual framework and hypotheses development The main aim of the research is to develop a comprehensive model for identifying the correlations between the elements of the marketing mix, after-sales activities and their impact on the preparation of tender documentation for public procurement in the marketing of medical devices. To achieve the desired goal, we have set hypotheses, which we refer to below. H1: After-sales activities have at least such a statistically significant impact on the preparation of the public procurement tender documentation in marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions as the selected elements of the marketing mix (product, price, promotion, distribution). 9 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Hypothesis 1 stems from the idea that in the marketing of medical devices through public procurement, the after-sales activities (contact with customers) are very important. “After-sales services” are often (Lele and Karmarkar, 1983) referred to as “product support activities”, meaning all activities that support the product-centric transaction. They are also found in the literature as “customer support” elements, meaning all activities that ensure that a product is available to consumers “over its useful lifespan for trouble-free use” (Loomba, 1998). Furthermore, the term “after-sales services” has been approached in the literature under two broad perspectives. When referring to service providing companies, after-sales services are being treated as one among several supplementary service elements provided by them (Oliva and Kallenberg, 2003). On the other hand, when referring to tangible goods, they are mostly seen as operative activities of some or all members of the distribution chain (Gaiardelli et al., 2007; Rigopoulou et al., 2008). H2: Good product characteristics statistically significantly influence the preparation of public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions. The basic tool of the marketing mix is the product. It represents a tangible market offering that includes quality, design, functions, branding and product packaging (Kotler and Armstrong, 2018). The product is an important source of brand equity. Through it, consumers interact with the brand, with which the company communicates through the brand (Keller, 2013, pp. 178-182). Offering a product that fully meets the needs and desires of consumers is a prerequisite for successful marketing. In the research case, we will be interested in the opinion of the respondents as to what makes a good product. By “product properties” we mean the characteristics that directly relate to the product: laboratory testing, references, professional studies, brand recognition, safe product (innovation), importance of the country of origin, product conformity with standards, personal contact of the representative, and good product presentation. H3: Personal sales statistically significantly influence the preparation of public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions. Hypothesis 3 is based on the idea that personal sales are crucial in the preparation of public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices. The choice of marketing channels and the way of communication with complex products that are the subject of this research paper are crucial for the success of each brand and company in general. Shimp and Craig Andrews (2013) states that marketing communication is the sum of all the elements of a brand's marketing mix, which facilitates exchange by targeting the brand at a group of users, positioning the brand against differences to competing brands and communicating the meaning of the brand and its main differences, the target groups. Vukasović (2023) combines the terms communication and marketing and states that marketing communication is a mutual information process between the company and the users. In summary, there is no more effective communication with the customer than direct communication through the marketing channel - personal sales, Fill (2009, p. 624) emphasizes that direct marketing is a strategy for creating and maintaining personal and direct communication with consumers. Based on this, we decided to consider personal sales in the set of distribution and promotion variables as a marketing and communication channel. We are of the opinion that personal sales is a component which, through the marketing mix elements of “Marketing Channel (distribution)” and “Marketing Communication (promotion)” influences the outcome of the selection of the provider during the marketing of products through public procurement. H4: The price of the product indicates its quality, innovativeness, origin, brand recognition and statistically significantly influences the preparation of tender documentation for public procurement in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions. Consumers often judge the quality of products based on the basic information that is related to the product. Some of this information is internal, other external, such as price, reputation, trademark, origin, or advertising message. Internal as well as external information, or both together, provide the basis for perceiving the properties of the product. If a component of the product is tangible and standardized, it is not difficult to create specifications, measure the compliance of activities with these specifications, and assess the quality of activities based on how successful the company has been in following the specifications. Companies have to constantly monitor the wishes of their consumers in order to ensure the compliance of specifications with their needs. Price is the most important factor in choosing the right supplier, in marketing medical devices to social care institutions through public procurement, as required by the Public Procurement Act ZJN-3 (2015, Art. 84), which prescribes the criteria for the award of a public contract. The first paragraph states that the contracting authority shall award the contract on the basis of the most economically advantageous offer. The following are defined as independent variables in the conceptual model: “Product”, “Price”, “Promotion”, “Distribution”, “After-sales Activities”, while “Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)” is the dependent variable. Each of the variables is measured by several different assertions in the questionnaire. Each of the variables will be measured with different statements, manifest variables or indicators which will be included in the survey questionnaire. By reviewing academic and scientific literature, we have designed a conceptual model of correlations, which is shown in Figure 2. 10 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Figure 2: Display of the conceptual model Sample and procedure The target population of our research is employed in laboratories in health centers (61 institutions) and hospitals (31 institutions) in Slovenia and totals 92 observed units. Altogether we received 217 completed questionnaires, while 9 questionnaires were excluded from the survey because they were not entirely filled out or were incomplete. We have obtained a sample (N = 208) of 208 respondents employed in these institutions. We used non-probability and purposive sampling. Given the public institution in which respondents are employed, we note that the majority (62.5%) of the respondents are employed in health center laboratories, whereby 4 people are employed as supervisors, 36 people as heads of laboratories and 90 people as other employees. The remaining respondents (37.5%) are employed in laboratories in hospitals, namely 15 people as heads of laboratories and 63 people as other employees. Research methodology We used a quantitative research method. The primary data was collected by means of a structured questionnaire. We contacted the heads of laboratories via telephone and asked them to assist in the submission of surveys to their colleagues. We subsequently sent surveys to them by post. Upon completion, the respondents returned the completed surveys to the address provided in the accompanying survey letter. The questionnaire was designed based on the purpose and objectives of the research and the basic assertions. The principle of the selection of items that were included in the questionnaire was based on the theoretical perspectives found in literature (Kotler and Armstrong, 2018; Vukasović, 2023). These measuring instruments were adapted for our own research case. When forming the assertions, we used a five-level Likert scale from 1 to 5, where for the selected assertion a rating of 1 means: "I do not agree at all", where for the assertion a rating of 5 means: "I agree completely". For each element of the marketing mix, after-sales activities and public procurement, we formed a set of statements that were tested in quantitative research. The questions are grouped into different content sections, which allows the analysis of each narrower range and model variable. In order to test the fundamental thesis and the hypotheses of the study, we analyzed the data by the corresponding uni-, bi- and multivariate data processing methods in the SPSS statistical package. Linear relationships between the selected variables were determined by the correlation coefficient and linear regression analysis. The conceptual model, model connections and hypotheses were tested by correlation and regression analysis. 11 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Results and findings The reliability of the measuring instrument was tested using the Cronbach Alpha test. We checked whether the presented indicators were a quality measuring instrument for the mentioned latent variables. The reliability of the measurement was labelled as exemplary if the coefficient α ≥ 0.80. If the coefficient at the interval was 0.70 ≤ α <0.80, the reliability was labelled very good, and moderate if it was at an interval of 0.60 ≤ α <0.70. If the Alpha coefficient was less than 0.60, it was barely acceptable. The results of the research, indicate that the measuring instrument is very reliable, since Cronbach Alpha is greater than 0.8. Finally, the reliability of individual variables was also tested. The Cronbach Alpha coefficient of reliability of variables is 0.74, which in accordance with the outlined criteria for measurement signifies very good reliability of measurement. As part of the survey data analysis, and in relation to the H1 hypothesis, we first checked what impact after-sales activities have on the preparation of the public procurement tender documentation in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions compared with the elements of the marketing mix. Table 1: Pearson's correlation coefficient between the elements of the marketing mix, after-sales activities and the public procurement variable Public procurement Product Pearson's correlation coefficient ,145 * Statistical significance (Sig.) (two-tailed) ,037 N 208 Price Pearson's correlation coefficient ,203 ** Statistical significance (Sig.) (two-tailed) ,003 N 208 Distribution Pearson's correlation coefficient ,085 Statistical significance (Sig.) (two-tailed) ,221 N 208 Promotion Pearson's correlation coefficient ,090 Statistical significance (Sig.) (two-tailed) ,194 N 208 After-Sales Activities Pearson's correlation coefficient ,069 Statistical significance (Sig.) (two-tailed) ,324 N 208 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (two-tailed) *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (two-tailed) As can be seen from Table 1, all the studied elements are with regard to the "Public procurement" in positive correlation with each other. Hypothesis 1, is confirmed. In the marketing of medical devices through public procurement, after-sales activities (contacts with buyers) are very important, since the after-sales activities (monitoring and maintenance of contacts, preparation of seminars, informing about novelties) only begin after signing the contract. In the continuation of the study, we checked (H2) whether good product characteristics statistically significantly influence the preparation of public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions. Using the Pearson's correlation coefficient, we verified the mutual correlation between the “Product” marketing mix set and the “Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)” variable (Table 2). 12 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Table 2: Pearson's correlation coefficient between the "Product" marketing mix set and the "Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)" Public Procurement Product Pearson's correlation coefficient ,145 * (Sig.) (2- two-tailed) ,037 N 208 *. The correlation is significant at 0.05 (2-stransko) It is evident (Table 2) that the studied sets of marketing mix are in a positive mutual correlation. A weak correlation (r = 0.145) is observed between “Product”, an element of the marketing mix, and the “Public procurement (preparation of tender documentation)” variable. With the analysis of variance (ANOVA), we later examined the impact of “Product”, the studied element of the marketing mix, on the “Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)” variable. The results of the analysis of variance indicate that the value of Sig. (two-tailed) is less than 0.05 (Sig., ≤ 0.05) only for two assertions. We can conclude that for the assertions: “Products should be of an identifiable brand”, and “When choosing products, their origin is important”, there are statistically significant differences on the studied variable, i.e. “Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation).” There are no statistically significant differences between the other studied variables. According to the presented results of the statistical analyses, we note that only some product characteristics statistically significantly influence the preparation of public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions. On the basis of the statistical calculations, Hypothesis 2, is rejected. The personal sale is the element which influences the outcome of the selection of a bidder in the marketing of products under public procurement procedures at all different stages through the two elements of the marketing mix: "Market Channel (Distribution) and "Marketing Communication (promotion)". These two phases include all the decisive steps that the buyer decides to take in order to get a picture of a product and a company. We were interested in whether personal sales as a marketing and communication channel statistically significantly influence the preparation of public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions (H3). In the “Personal Sales” set, we included the marketing mix elements of “Market Channel (Distribution)” and “Marketing Communication (Promotion)”. The impact of personal sales on the preparation of public procurement tender documentation when marketing medical devices to social welfare institutions was tested by means of a regression analysis, correlation and analysis of variance (ANOVA). Below we show the correlation analysis and the results obtained for the “Personal Sales” variable with regard to the “Public Procurement” variable (Table 3). Table 3: Pearson's correlation coefficient between the variable "Personal Sales" and variable "Public Procurement" Public Procurement Personal Sales Pearson's correlation coefficient ,092 (Sig.)(2- two-tailed) ,186 N 208 *. The correlation is significant at 0.05 Based on the results of the correlation analysis, we can conclude that the “Personal Sales” and “Public Procurement” variables are in a weak mutual correlation (r = 0.92). From the results it is evident that Sig value (two-tailed) is less than 0.05 (Sig. ≤ 0.05), and thus we can conclude that between the studied variables, there are significant differences. Based on statistical calculations, Hypothesis 3, is confirmed. In the survey, we also checked whether the independent variable, the price of the product indicates its quality, innovativeness, origin, brand recognition and statistically significantly influences the preparation of tender documentation for public procurement in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions (H4). Consumers are often judged on product quality on the basis of basic 13 Perfectus AC 1/2023 product-related information. The information can be internal or external. External information that can influence the quality opinion on a product can be, for example, price, reputation, brand, origin, advertising message. It is evident that only the independent variable “The brand justifies a high price” has a statistically significant influence on the dependent variable of “Public Procurement”, as the value of the test at the studied assertion is Sig. = 0.04 and is less than Sig. ≤ 0,05. Since we were also interested in the correlation between the variable "Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)“ and the marketing mix element of “Price”, we used the Pearson coefficient of correlation to check mutual correlations. The variable of “Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)” and the marketing mix element of “Price” are in a positive correlation with each other. The results show a weak correlation between them (r = 0.203). Hereinafter we refer to the performed analysis of the correlation between the individual assertions of the “Public Procurement” variable and the assertions of the marketing mix element of “Price”. The strongest yet still a weak correlation (r = 0.291) is seen between the assertion “In accordance with the law, by which only the cheapest bidder counts, but under the conditions of connections and acquaintance (VIP), based on the eligibility criteria that are predetermined” and the assertion “the origin of a product justifies its high price”. The strongest negative correlation is noted between the assertion “In accordance with the law, by which only the cheapest bidder counts, but under the conditions stated in the pro-forma invoice, based on preliminary product testing.” and the assertion “the origin of a product justifies its high price” (r = -0.135). Of all the 24 measured correlations between the assertions of the variable “Public Procurement” and the assertions of the marketing mix element of “Price”, there were six negative correlations, while all the other correlations are according to Padua (2008) on the scale of linear correlation level at 0 <| r | <0.3, which is a weak correlation. Based on statistical calculations, Hypothesis 4 is partly confirmed. Using the Pearson's correlation coefficient, we found that all the elements of the marketing mix, the “After-Sales Activities” variable and the “Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)” variable are in mutual correlation. We concluded that “Personal Sales”, which combines the marketing mix elements of “Marketing Channel (distribution)” and “Marketing Communication (promotion)”, is in the strongest correlation, which confirms our hypothesis that this is the most effective form of marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions through public procurement. By the strength of mutual correlation, it is followed by the marketing mix element of “Market Channel (Distribution)” and the “After-Sales Activity” variable as well as the marketing mix element of “Market Communication (Promotion)” and the “After-Sales Activity” variable. Based on the strength of the correlation, we can note that after-sales activities are almost as important as personal sales in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions through public procurement. Below, in Table 4, we show the variance (ANOVA) calculations. Table 4: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the elements of the marketing mix and the "After-sales activities" variable in relation to "Public procurement (preparation of tender documentation)" Correlation Impact Product Public procurement (preparation of tender documentation) 0,609 Price Public procurement 0,233 Distribution (preparation of tender documentation) 0,011 Promotion Public procurement 0,033 After-sales activities (preparation of tender documentation) 0,010 We found that between the marketing mix elements of “Price” and “Product” there is no statistically significant difference for the “Public Procurement (preparation of tender documentation)” variable. For this reason, we cannot generalize the previously obtained data on the correlation of the marketing mix elements of “Price” and “Product” to the entire population. In addition, we note that all the studied variables are mutually positively correlated and that the “Personal Sales” variable, which combines the marketing mix elements of “Marketing Channel (distribution)” and “Marketing Communication (promotion)” is equally important in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions as the “after-sales activities” variable. Based on the basic research thesis and hypotheses that have been verified, we developed a structural model of correlations between the studied elements, as shown in Figure 3. 14 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Figure 3: Structural model of correlations between the studied elements of the marketing mix, the "After-sales activities" variable in relation to "Public procurement (preparation of tender documentation)" Conclusion The research focuses on the views of the involved actors who are in our case employed in laboratories, hospitals and health centers. The studied variables were in this type of marketing shown as mutually dependent variables that affect the preparation of tender documentation in the marketing of medical devices (devices for blood sampling) to social welfare institutions, where sales are made through public procurement. By conducting statistical analyses, we found that all the studied variables are in a positive correlation with each other and that the “Personal Sales” variable, which combines the marketing mix elements of “Market Communication (promotion)” and “Market Channel (distribution)”, is equally important in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions through public procurement as the “After-Sales Activities” variable. Based on the results, we produced a structural model of correlations between the studied elements. The model represents an added value not only in the field of scientific and research work, but also in the field of usability in practice. Using the statistical analysis, we proved that the proposed additional element of the marketing mix, "After-sales activities", is very important in this type of marketing and equivalent to the marketing mix elements of marketing communication (promotion) and marketing channel (distribution) in this type of marketing and that personal sales is that form of a marketing channel and marketing communication that combines both elements into one and is most effective in the marketing of medical devices to social welfare institutions through public procurement. The research is a contribution to the fact that in the process of marketing products through public procurement, the same attention is devoted to the after-sales activities as to the design and development of new products, planning of marketing channels (distribution), marketing communication (promotion) and pricing. The research results presented in the paper can be a trigger for further research. The newly designed model can be used in practice. In the study, we limited ourselves to studying the correlations of the selected elements of the product marketing mix. We selected a simplified concept of 4P. In the future, it would be useful to include other elements of the product marketing mix, which are mentioned by authors in the different concepts of the marketing mix. In this way, we would explore the correlations between the expanded marketing mix and other studied variables and find out if there are generally valid rules of correlations in the marketing of products through public procurement, as defined by the Public Procurement Act. Generalization for the purpose of directly understanding and solving problems 15 Perfectus AC 1/2023 in the medical products market is not realistic. The research is based on the results obtained in a narrow segment of the medical products market, which makes them useful with a high degree of reliability only in this product group. For the purpose of comparability, the results may be used within the field of medical products, and in so doing we have to take into account the specificity of medical products and the medical industry. Companies that market these products exclusively to social welfare institutions can market them only through public procurement defined by the Public Procurement Act. The paper presents the importance of each variable, in the eyes of the buyer in the marketing of products through public procurement. The conducted research also serves as a model that enables more successful sales for the companies offering medical devices, and thus a better competitive position on the market. References: 1. Agnihothri, S., Sivasubramanian, N. and Simmons, D. (2002). Leveraging technology to improve field service. International Journal of Service Industry Management, 13(1), 47–68. 2. Arlbjørn, S. and Freytag, P. (2012). 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Pridobljeno s spletne strani: http://www.pisrs.si/Pis.web/pregledPredpisa?id=ZAKO7086 16 Perfectus AC 1/2023 AVTOGENI TRENING – TEHNIKA UČINKOVITEGA SPOPRIJEMANJA Z ANKSIOZNOSTJO V POST COVIDNEM OBDOBJU Nevenka Podgornik https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5242-656X 3 Pascale Emily Pečnik https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6562-9501 4 Mineja P. Pulec https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0802-8240 5 Prejem: 1. 6. 2023 Poslano v recenzijo: 7. 6. 2023 Sprejeto v objavo: 13. 9. 2023 Povzetek v jeziku prispevka: Obdobje epidemije covida-19 je z omejevalnimi ukrepi poseglo v različne vidike družbenega življenja in vplivalo na psihosocialne posledice ter težave v duševnem zdravju. Izrazit je bil porast težav med mladostniki, med katerimi izstopa anksioznost, ki je poleg depresije ena najbolj razširjenih težav duševnega zdravja v otroštvu in adolescenci. V pričujočem prispevku je avtogeni trening predstavljen kot eden izmed učinkovitih metod spoprijemanja z anksioznostjo v post epidemičnem času, katere uporabnost je v času epidemije raziskovala in potrjevala različna stroka. Pregled literature in virov oz. raziskav potrjuje, da je avtogeni trening učinkovita metoda za odpravljanje anksioznosti, ki se lahko v post epidemičnem času pojavlja tako v šolskem prostoru kot v domačem okolju otrok in mladostnikov. V članku je predstavljena krajša singularna študija primera uporabe avtogenega treninga v kombinaciji s psihoterapijo v primeru postepidemične anksioznosti mladostnice. Ključne besede: avtogeni trening, anksioznost, adolescenca, epidemija, študija primera. AUTOGENIC TRAINING - A TECHNIQUE FOR EFFECTIVELY OVERCOMING ANXIETY IN THE POST COVID PERIOD Abstract: The covid-19 epidemic period has reached into different spheres of social life and had a strong and long-lasting impact on psychosocial consequences and mental health problems. Anxiety was marked in the global increase of problems in childhood and adolescence as one of the most prevalent mental health disorders alongside depression. In this article, we present autogenic training as one of the effective methods of dealing with anxiety in the post-epidemic era, whose usefulness has been researched and validated by various disciplines during the epidemic. In the overview of references and researches based on the use of autogenic training in the epidemic, it is admitted that autogenic training is an effective method for suppressing anxiety in the post-epidemic period for both the school and home environments of children and adolescents. The article represents a short singular case study of using autogenic training in combination with psychotherapy in a case of post- epidemic anxiety in an adolescent girl. Keywords:: autogenic training, anxiety, adolescence, epidemic, case study JEL Classification: Health, Education, and Welfare, General Welfare Kategorizacija: Izvirni znanstveni članek Korespondenčni avtor: Nevenka Podgornik DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11035623 3 Izr. prof. dr. Nevenka Podgornik, Zasebna psihoterapevtska praksa Dr. Nevenka Podgornik, Nova Gorica, Slovenija, psihoterapija@nevenkapodgornik.si 4 Dr. Pascale Emily Pečnik, Društvo za strpne odnose Eksena, Celje, Slovenija, pascale.emily.pecnik@gmail.com 5 Mineja P. Pulec, študentka Filozofske fakultete Univerze v Ljubljani, mineja.pp@gmail.com 17 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Uvod Epidemija koronavirusa je posegla v vse pore družbenega življenja in ga v največji možni meri preoblikovala. Povzročila je za nekatere krajše, za druge daljše težave, tako na ravni posameznika, družine, skupnosti, družbe kot gospodarstva (Mastrotheodoros, 2021). Ukrepi kot so omejitve gibanja, zaprtje šol, socialna distanca, omejevanje druženja in drugi so bili na eni strani neizbežni in sprejeti s strani medicinskih strok skoraj po celem svetu, na drugi pa v sebi nosijo močan dolgotrajen psihosocialni vidik posledic na duševno zdravje (Dobnik Renko in dr., 2020). Karantene in drugi omejevalni ukrepi so sprožili številne psihološke odzive. Od razdražljivosti in strahu pred okužbo ali širjenjem okužbe na druge družinske člane, jeze, zmedenosti, frustracije, osamljenosti, anksioznosti, depresije, nespečnosti, do množične tesnobe in stisk zaradi občutka izgube kontrole in obupa, kar je v skrajnih primerih vodilo tudi v samomor (Dubey in dr., 2020). Na obremenitvene posledice koronavirusa so opozarjali in opozarjajo strokovnjaki različnih znanosti. Stroka s področja duševnega zdravja, Centri za duševno zdravje, Nacionalni inštitut za javno zdravje, zdravstveni zavodi, svetovalni centri, Zbornica kliničnih psihologov in drugi, so bili pri tem ves čas dejavni pri osveščanju o psihosocialnih vidikih epidemije in sprejetih omejevalnih ukrepih (Dobnik Renko in dr., 2020). Na posledice epidemije opozarjajo tudi številne nevladne organizacije. Epidemija je povečala neenakosti in prizadela zlasti najbolj ranljive skupine prebivalstva, kjer imajo pomembno vlogo nevladne organizacije. Za več kot milijardo in pol šolarjev na globalni ravni se je učni proces ustavil in skoraj štiriindvajset milijonov otrok je bilo v nevarnosti, da bodo opustili šolanje in jim bo v prihodnosti onemogočen dostop do izobraževanja. Šolanje na daljavo je izrazito povečalo stopnjo osipa na univerzah in okrepilo izpise ter občutek neuspeha. Pomanjkanje socialnih povezav z vrstniki in viskošolskimi učitelji pa je povzročilo veliko psihično stisko in izolacijo (Le Got, 2022). Ena večjih analiz izobraževanja na daljavo v času prvega vala epidemije covida-19 v Sloveniji kaže na veliko obremenitev tako učiteljev kot učencev. Učitelji vključeni v raziskavo so na primer poročali o večji zahtevnosti poučevanja na daljavo in pogostejšem doživljanju stresa ob poučevanju. Odzivi otrok na epidemijo so različni in odvisni od številnih dejavnikov kot je starost otroka, razumevanje situacije, razpoložljivost in razumevanje informacij, siceršnjega stila in strategij odzivanja v stresnih situacijah, podpora bližnjih in drugih (Dobnik Renko in dr., 2020). Pri delu z otroki in mladostniki je tako v času epidemije kot v njenih posledicah nujno prepoznavati težave, jih naslavljati in pomagati vsem prizadetim pri spoprijemanju z njimi. Ena izmed najpogostejših duševnih težav v otroštvu in mladostništvu, ki je v postepidemičnem času v velikem porastu je tudi anksioznost. Gre za multidimenzionalno stanje, ki se izraža tako na fiziološki ravni, v obliki povečane aktivnosti avtonomnega živčnega sistema, potenja, bolečin v trebuhu in podobno, kot tudi vedenjski in kognitivni ravni v obliki maldaptivnega mišljenja (Dobnik Renko, 2020). Skozi pričujoč prispevek predstavljamo tehniko avtogenega treninga, s katerim si lahko otroci in mladostniki pomagajo pri soočanju z anksioznostjo, ki izvira bodisi iz strahu pred boleznijo, bodisi iz drugih psihosocialnih kontekstov. Obdobje adolescence in čustvena stabilnost Obdobje adolescence je univerzalno razvojno obdobje, ki se začenja s puberteto in konča s prevzemanjem odraslih družbenih vlog. Za obdobje adolescence je značilen pospešeni telesni razvoj, vključujoč reproduktivno, spoznavno, čustveno, socialno in moralno zrelost (Marjanovič Umek in Zupančič, 2020). Gre torej za čas, ki je ključnega pomena za številne vidike osebnega razvoja in razvoja identitete vključno z nadaljnjimi cilji, motivacijo in psihosocialno blaginjo (Pfeifer in Berkman, 2018). Razvoj identitete je zlasti v zahodnih družbah, kjer je potreba po oblikovanju neodvisnosti in odgovornosti izredno visoko na vrednotnih lestvicah lahko za številne najstnike izredno stresna. Izrednega pomena pri tem je tudi njihov socialni razvoj, ki vpliva na razvoj identitete in stilov navezanosti. Marcia (1980 v Stangor in Walinga, 2014), kot eden od najbolj prepoznavnih avtorjev razvojne psihologije katerega delo temelji na Eriksonovih dognanjih psihosocialnega razvoja opredeljuje štiri faze razvoja identitete; razpršena identiteta, privzeta identiteta, identitetni moratorij in dosežena identiteta. Razpršena identiteta je značilna za posameznike, ki so izrazito nesamostojni pri sprejemanju odločitev in nimajo trdnih stališč. Privzeta identiteta je značilna za posameznike, ki svoje vedenje, mišljenje in čustvovanje prilagajajo vrednostnemu sistemu in mišljenju drugih. Identitetni moratorij prepoznavamo pri posameznikih, ki so v fazi raziskovanja in ne sprejmejo odgovornosti za odločitve. Dosežena identiteta pa je značilna za posameznike, ki dosežejo fazo v razvoju identitete, ki temelji na osebnih stališčih in odločitvah. Mladostniki naj bi prešli različne faze razvoja identitete, dokler ne dosežejo faze dosežene identitete. Razvoj lahko poteka različno po različnih področjih, situacijah in interakcijah. Različni izidi pa pri tem predstavljajo tudi stične točke s posameznimi motnjami čustvenega ali kognitivnega stanja. Posameznik se pri tem sooča tudi z različnimi vrednotnimi lestvicami, ki izvirajo iz tako okoljskih kot nevronskih procesov vključenih v odločitve posameznika. Novejše nevrološke raziskave, kot je model dvojnih sistemov (the dual-system model) tako vedenje mladostnikov konceptualizirajo v okviru konflikta med razvojem nevronskih vezij, ki so vpletene v občutljivost za nagrajevanje in kognitivni razvoj, s čimer pojasnjujejo tudi bolj tvegana vedenja. Drugi pomemben pristop poudarja okolje kot komponento za razumevanje socialne preusmeritve mladostnikov. Identitetno-vrednotni sistem pa identiteto obravnava kot večplastno, zato lahko različni vidiki identitete vplivajo na vrednost samoregulativnega vedenja do te mere, da so ti izraziti in zaznani tudi navzven. To pomeni, da gre pri določenem vedenju adolescenta za normativni razvojni proces, znotraj katerega se prekriva samoevalvacija in procesi relacijske identitete s predstavitvijo vrednotnega pomena posameznega dogodka v možganih (Pfeifer in Berkman, 2018). 18 Perfectus AC 1/2023 V procesu oblikovanja identitete pa pomembno vlogo igra tudi čustvovanje in čustvena stabilnost (Stets in Trettevik, 2014). Še posebej zanimivo je preučevanje razmerja med anksioznostjo in identiteto, saj anksioznost predstavlja eno najbolj razširjenih splošnih psihosocialnih težav med mladimi. Na eni strani ima namreč anksioznost lahko pozitivno funkcijo in spodbuja posameznike k raziskovanju in ponovnem preučevanju svoje identitetne zaveze (Erikson, 1950 v Crocetti in dr., 2009), hkrati pa previsoka raven anksioznosti vodi v nefunkcionalnost in nesposobnost doseganja dosežene identitete. Za mladostnike z visoko stopnjo anksioznosti so namreč značilne težave pri sprejemanju ustreznih identitetnih izbir (Crocetti in dr., 2009). Anksioznost pri otrocih in mladostnikih Anksioznost je poleg depresije ena najbolj razširjenih težav duševnega zdravja v otroštvu in mladostništvu. Dejavniki tveganja anksioznosti pri posamezniku je več, kot so na primer različni neugodni življenjski dogodki, stili nevarne navezanosti med otroci in starši, visoka kritičnost staršev v odnosu do otroka, anksioznost staršev, itd. (Dobnik Renko, 2020). Velikokrat pa je anksioznost tudi manifestacija odsotnosti priložnosti za pridobivanje izkušenj o svetu, neuspešno uresničenih izzivov ali spodbude staršev v ključnih trenutkih. Gre torej za multidimenzionalno stanje, ki izvira iz spleta različnih dejavnikov in se izraža tako na fiziološki, vedenjski kot kognitivni ravni. Močno so prisotna negativna čustva strahu in skrbi, ki se izražajo v značilnih fizioloških odzivih. Fiziološke reakcije se izražajo v obliki potenja, bolečine v trebuhu, tresenja in v obliki povečane aktivnosti avtonomnega živčnega sistema. Na vedenjski ravni se izraža predvsem v obliki izogibanja, grizenja nohtov, joka, okamenelosti in podobno. Na kognitivni ravni pa se le-ta izraža predvsem v obliki negativnih prepričanj, misli in pretirani samokritičnosti (Dobnik Renko, 2020). Pojav epidemije covida-19 je ustvaril okolje v katerem so se poslabšali številni dejavniki duševnega zdravja. V obdobju pred epidemijo so bile stopnje klinično pomembne anksioznosti približno 11 %. Meta analiza pomembnejših psiholoških spoznanj (PsychIfo, Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register), ki je vključevala skupno 80.879 mladih globalno pa je pokazala dvig odstotka na 25 % in več. To predstavlja kar enega od petih mladih, ki so se v času epidemije soočali s klinično povišanimi simptomi anksioznosti. Združene ocene so se sčasoma povečevale in jih danes ocenjujejo že na dvakrat večje kot v obdobju pred epidemijo (Racine in dr., 2021). Analiza s področja duševnega zdravja in mladostnikov je pokazala tudi, da so mladostniki bolj zaskrbljeni zaradi samih omejevalnih ukrepov kot morebitne okužbe s korona virusom. Strokovnjaki zato opozarjajo, da je bistvenega pomena dodelitev sredstev za obravnavno in skrb za duševno zdravje otrok in mladostnikov tako med kot po epidemiji (The Lancet, 2021). Za odpravljanje anksioznosti pri mladostnikih uporabljajo številne psihoterapevtske tehnike, kot so kognitivno vedenjska terapija, EMDR, EFT, logosinteza in avtogeni trening. Prav slednji je tisti, ki v zadnjem desetletju prihaja v ospredje in mu v pričujočem prispevku namenjamo osrednje mesto. V nadaljevanju želimo strniti nekaj splošnih dejstev o metodi avtogenega treninga, sistematični in eni najbolj učinkovitih celostnih metod globalnega telesnega in duševnega sproščanja (Tušak idr., 2016), ki se osredotoča na telesne zaznave posameznika (Stetter in Kupper, 2002). Metoda avtogenega treninga je ena izmed psiholoških in psihoterapevtskih metod tako v splošni rabi kot v času epidemije, katerih uporabnost je raziskovala in potrjevala različna stroka (De Rivera in dr., 2021; Kwon in Lee, 2021; Wagener, 2013). Predstavitev in uporaba metode avtogeni trening Avtogeni trening je v zgodnjih letih 20. stoletja razvil nemški psihiater in nevrolog dr. Johannes Heinrich Schultz. Izhodiščno raziskovalno delo Schultza je izhajalo iz dela Oscarja Vogta, psihiatra in nevrofiziologa, ki je ugotovil, da hipnoza blagodejno vpliva na počutje, glavobole in zmanjšanje utrujenosti. Ugotovil je, da so se inteligentni in kritično naravnani subjekti sposobni naučiti inducirati nekatera »autosugestivna stanja« z uporabo zaporedja autosugestij uporabljenih v fazi indukcije hipnoze, kar bi lahko nadaljnje uporabili kot pristop za indikacijo različnih duševnih stanj (Schultz in Luthe, 1959). Najpomembnejše odkritje Vogta in Schultza pri tem je, da imajo možgani sposobnost učinkovitega odpravljanja oziroma popravljanja različnih psiho-fizioloških motenj, ki jih povzročajo notranja neravnovesja živčnega sistema. S tem zajema tako prirojene zmožnosti živčnega sistema, ki omogočajo dosego optimalnega stanja, kot tudi nizko odvisnost od terapevta in s tem sposobnost samoozdravitve in vzpostavitve stanja notranjega ravnovesja (Sadigh, 2001). Danes je avtogeni trening ena izmed priznanih tehnik sproščanja, ki jo uporabljajo in poučujejo predvsem v Evropi in na Japonskem (Audette in Bailey, 2007). V splošnem gre pri tem za samoregulacijo doseganja globoke sprostitve posameznika in povečanje njegove fiziološke aktivnost skozi pasivno koncentracijo, imenovano samohipnoza. Pri izvajanju se posameznik pasivno osredotoča na telesne občutke, ne da bi jih pri tem poskušal spremeniti, hkrati pa se osredotoča predvsem na svoje notranje občutke in ne na okoljske dražljaje (Lehrer in dr., 2007). V procesu izvajanja avtogenega treninga se v telesu dogajajo različni procesi kot je na primer znižanje krvnega tlaka, vsebnosti hormona kortizola, ravni sladkorja v krvi, srčnega utripa in razbremenitev srčne mišice. V centralnem živčnem sistemu pride do večje usklajenosti leve in desne hemisfere, hkrati pa se poveča tudi theta delovanje in alfa valovanje (Audette in Bailey, 2007; Goldbeck in Schmid, 2003). Z avtogenim treningom in njegovo dolgotrajno vadbo je torej posamezniku omogočeno, da uravnava stanje napetosti in sproščenosti (Mills in dr., 1991). V fazi avtogenega treninga je posameznik v stiku s svojo podzavestjo kar vpliva tako na umske kot telesne funkcije nezavednega dela možganov in posledično je le-ta dojemljivejši za samoprepričevanje (Stetter in Kupper, 2002). 19 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Učinki avtogenega treninga na anksioznost V kontekstu predstavitve metode avtogeni trening in njegove uporabe želimo posebej izpostaviti njegove učinke, ki se kažejo zlasti v vplivu na avtonomno živčevje. Ta sestoji iz parasimpatičnega živčevja, ki je odgovorno za obnovo in sproščanje telesa, ter simpatičnega živčevja, ki v izrednih razmerah, denimo v trenutkih stresa, postavi telo v stanje bojne pripravljenosti. Pospeši se izločanje adrenalina in noradrenalina v krvi, kar povzroči večjo koncentracijo in zbranost, mišice se napnejo, pospešita se srčni utrip in hitrost dihanja, delovanje prebavil se upočasni, občutki lakote in žeje se začasno izklopijo. Če je telo pogosto pod stresom in se le redko sprosti, obstaja nevarnost, da oslabi imunski sistem in posledica je lahko bolezen. Dolgoročno preobremenjevanje simpatičnega živčevja lahko povzroči tudi pojav duševnih bolezni, kot so depresija, stalna utrujenost, tesnoba, razdražljivost in napetost, povezana z bolečinami (Mills in dr., 1991). Uporaba avtogenega treninga ima tudi pozitivne učinke na delovanje kardio -vaskularnega sistema. Z njegovo uporabo namreč razbremenimo srčno mišico in s tem preprečimo visok krvni tlak, infarkt ali druga obolenja (Stetter in Kupper, 2002). Vpliva tudi na izboljšanje trebušnih in črevesnih težav, ki so pogosto psihosomatskega izvora (Shinozaki, et. al., 2010). Podobno je tudi več kot 95 % vseh glavobolov psihogenih pri čemer lahko učinkovito pomaga avtogeni trening, ki ob rednem izvajanju vpliva na ožilje in sproščanje duševnih stisk. Študije kažejo tudi, da lahko s tehniko avtogenega treninga zmanjšamo pogostost, jakost in samo trajanje glavobola (Kanji in dr., 2006; Seo in dr., 2018). Avtogeni trening učinkovito naslavlja tudi nespečnost. Šestmesečna raziskava Pinheira in dr. (2015), kvalitativne analize vpliva sprostitvenih tehnik in programa avtogenega treninga na kakovost spanja pri bolnikih z nespečnostjo, povezano z anksiozno motnjo ali depresijo, je pokazala statistično pomembno zmanjšanje nespečnosti. Subjektivno so pacienti pokazali zadovoljstvo z izboljšanjem vzorca spanja, z manjšimi motnjami pri opravljanju vsakodnevnih opravil, pa tudi z zmanjšanjem nevšečnosti, ki jih povzroča motnja spanja. Izboljšali so se tudi razpoloženje, moč, samopodoba in samokontrola. Rezultati raziskave kažejo, da lahko psiho-farmakološka terapija v kombinaciji s tehnikami sproščanja in programom avtogenega treninga, ki jih je mogoče izvajati neodvisno, izboljša kakovost spanja (Pinheiro in dr., 2015). Iz obdobja 1974–2018 je navedenih več kot 100 študij, ki so preučile možne koristi avtogenega usposabljanja za širok spekter stanj, vključno z rakom, depresijo, vrtoglavico, zaprtjem, sindromom razdražljivega črevesja, panično motnjo, sladkorno boleznijo, sklerodermo, posttravmatsko stresno motnjo in Parkinsonovo boleznijo (Science.gov n. d., v Podgornik, 2022). Več primerov o učinkovitosti prakticiranja avtogenega treninga v primeru različnih zdravstvenih težav in psiholoških stanj, zlasti glede fibromialgije in tesnobnosti, navaja tudi Sadigh (2001) v svoji knjigi A Mind-Body Approach to the Treatment of Fibromyalgia and Chronic Pain Syndrome. Izsledki obsežne metaanalize (Seo in Kim, 2019) potrjujejo tudi, da avtogeni trening zmanjšuje anksioznost in depresivnost ter poveča variabilnost srčnega utripa. Študija Ann Bowden in drugih (2009) o učinkovitosti avtogenega treninga na anksioznost, izvedena na Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine, je pokazala zmanjšanje občutkov tesnobe, napadov panike, izboljšanje spanca in za nekatere tudi zmanjšanje ali prenehanje jemanja zdravil. Kakovostne povratne informacije udeležencev so prikazovale spremembo njihove percepcije – na težave bi sicer gledali kot grožnjo, s pomočjo avtogenega treninga pa so jih pričeli zaznavati kot izzive. Zaključna ugotovitev je pomenila stabilne osebnostne spremembe s pomočjo redne prakse avtogenega treninga. Klott (2013) meni, da je avtogeni trening lahko zelo koristen za otroke od petega leta starosti dalje. Različni avtorji (Petermann, 2001; Eberlein, 1999; Langensiepen, 2010 v Klott, 2013) pri delu z otroki in mladostniki predlagajo prilagoditve, kot so na primer kombinacija avtogenega treninga in pravljic, ustvarjalnih zgodbic, čarobnih besed in podobno. Prav tako Klott (2013) navaja več raziskav (Biermann in Mueller, 1986; Goldbeck in Schmid, 2003), ki potrjujejo učinkovitost avtogenega treninga pri zdravljenju otrok z različnimi težavami. Feruglio idr. (2022) v raziskavi o učinkovitosti tehnik, ki povezujejo um in telo, kot sta avtogeni trening in meditacija, ugotavljajo, da je izvajanje tovrstnih tehnik v šolah lahko izrazito učinkovita metoda za izboljšanje pozitivnih osebnih lastnosti, samoregulacije, obvladovanja čustev, boljše počutje, empatijo, sočutje in večjo povezanost z drugimi. Prednost avtogenega treninga in meditacije pa vidijo predvsem v tem, da jo je možno ponuditi vsem študentom, neodvisno od psiho-fizičnega stanja. Namen avtogenega treninga je povečati samozavedanje, samokontrolo in samorefleksijo, kar podpira tudi morebitno vključenost posameznika v terapevtski proces. Prav tako predstavlja varno strategijo za izražanje in obvladovanje močnih čustev, kot sta denimo jeza in strah (Klott, 2013). Avtogeni trening se kot ena najstarejših biovedenjskih tehnik obvladovanja stresa pogosto uporablja kot prva intervencija v terapevtskih okoljih za otroke in odrasle (Klott, 2013), prav tako pri zdravljenju otrok z dolgoletnimi vedenjskimi in čustvenimi težavami. Uporaba metode avtogeni trening v primeru anksioznosti v času epidemije covid-19 De Rivera idr. (2021) predstavljajo študijo, ki je bila v času epidemije izvedena v Španiji in je raziskovala učinkovitost avtogenega treninga pri soočanju z epidemijo. V raziskavi je sodelovalo 75 oseb različnih starostnih skupin in rezultati kažejo, da se je uporaba avtogene terapije med epidemijo povečala in, da je ta učinkovita za zmanjševanje stopnje anksioznosti in večjo empatijo. Na osnovi pridobljenih podatkov 20 Perfectus AC 1/2023 avtorji študije vadbo avtogenega treninga priporočajo vsem, ki se soočajo z anksioznostjo, se bojijo okužbe s covid-19 ali čutijo, da so izgubili kvaliteto odnosov z drugimi. Podobno poročajo tudi iz Japonske, kjer so študentom tamkajšnjih univerz leta 2020 omogočili online izobraževanje o avtogenem treningu. Udeleženci, ki so kontinuirano izvajali avtogeni trening so poročali o pozitivnih učinkih, med drugim tudi, da je ta deloval tudi kot socialna podpora novim študentom in prispeval k ohranjanju in izboljšanju njihovega dobrega počutja (Yagi in dr., 2021). Hkrati pa obstajajo tudi študije, ki nakazujejo samo uspešnost uporabe avtogenega treninga pri posameznikih, ki so preboleli covid-19. Rezultat razkriva znatno izboljšanje težav povezanih z duševnim zdravjem po sami psihološki intervenciji in zmanjšanje anksioznosti. Avtogeni trening je pri tem pripomogel pri rehabilitaciji v postakutni fazi bolezni predvsem za zmanjšanje simptomov stiske in izboljšanja psihološkega zdravja (Priyamvada in dr., 2021). V času epidemije bil ta trening tudi priporočena tehnika za sprostitev v primeru nemira ali tesnobe, ki ga lahko izvajamo v domačem okolju (Rutar in Čižman Štaba, 2021; Štukovnik, 2020). Izkušnje, pridobljene z dolgotrajno vadbo namreč postopoma omogočijo, da uravnavamo stanja napetosti in sproščenosti. Naučimo se nadzorovati nekatere osnovne telesne funkcije – srčni utrip, dihanje, dejavnost prebavil ali prekrvavitev mišic in kože ter s tem celotno ravnovesje v telesu. Fiziološki testi so pokazali, da se med izvajanjem avtogenega treninga znižajo krvni tlak, vsebnost stresnega hormona kortizola, raven sladkorja v krvi in srčni utrip, razbremeni se srčna mišica. Analiza centralnega živčnega sistema je pokazala povečano usklajevanje leve in desne hemisfere. Povečalo se je alfa valovanje in tudi theta delovanje (Mills in dr., 1991). Zaradi izboljšanje povezava obeh možganskih hemisfer se lahko povečajo tudi ustvarjalnost in nagnjenost k intuiciji, odprtost čustvom, spominom, ustvarjalnosti in razvijanja potencialov (Luthe 2000). Študija primera Uporabo metode avtogeni trening v praksi predstavljamo z metodo diskriptivne singularne študije primera. Študija primera je široko uporabljana kvalitativna metoda v družboslovnih znanostih, zlasti je uporabljena na področjih, ki so usmerjena v prakso. Mesec (1998) študijo primera v socialnem delu opredeljuje kot celovit opis posameznega primera in njegovo analizo, tj. opis značilnosti primera in dogajanja ter opis procesa odkrivanja teh značilnosti, tj. procesa raziskovanja samega, “z namenom, da bi odkrili variable, strukture, obrazce interakcij in zakonitosti interakcije med sodelujočimi v problemu (teoretični namen), bodisi z namenom, da bi ocenili uspešnost dela ali napredek v razvoju (praktični namen)« (Mesec, 1998). S tem namenom je bil ta raziskovalni pristop izbran tudi pri našem proučevanju učinkovitosti avtogenega treninga za primer anksioznosti v času epidemije covida-19. V psihoterapevtski proces se je vključila 18-letna dijakinja, ki se je z novim koronavirusom okužila v prvem valu epidemije. Kmalu po preboleli bolezni je zaznala tesnobno počutje, ki se je odražalo zlasti s pospešenim srčnim utripom. Po opravljenih zdravstvenih pregledih je bil izključen morebitni organski razlog za pojav težav in mladostnica je bila napotena na psihološko pomoč. Ob vpogledu v situacijo se je izkazalo, da težave segajo na pomembna področja njenega življenja, zmanjšujejo kvaliteto njenega življenja in omejujejo zanjo pomembne aktivnosti – šolanje, druženje, treniranje plesa. Izgubila je temeljni občutek varnosti in razvila splošno tesnobnost, ki jo spremlja slabo počutje. Na aktivnostni komponenti je razvidno umikanje - iz situacij, odnosov, druženja, aktivnosti, izogiba se izpostavljanju, zlasti novim situacijam. Zavzela je pasivno držo in vase zaprto vedenje, s čimer frustracijo poglablja in izgublja nadzor nad življenjem, saj je takšno ravnanje v nasprotju s tem, kako želi delovati. Ob neprijetni simptomatiki na ravni fiziologije so prisotna tudi intenzivna negativna čustva, zlasti strah, kaj je narobe in kaj če se bo težava stopnjevala, nemoč, ker ni izboljšanja, ter jeza in žalost, da se ji dogajajo te težave, medtem ko se želi osredotočiti na zadnje leto gimnazije in maturo. Tudi klientkin notranji govor je odražal njeno stisko, hkrati jo je krepil. Navezoval se je na zaskrbljenost glede trenutne stiske, splošne prihodnosti, pa tudi ponovne okužbe s koronavirusom in izpostavljenosti novim zdravstvenim težavam. S ‘sekiranjem na zalogo’, kot se je izrazila klientka, je ponesrečeno poskušala imeti nadzor nad situacijami, ki so izven njenega nadzora. Naše vedenje je celostno, z negativnim in s katastrofičnim pogledom ni moč izboljšati počutja, zato je bila v okviru psihoterapevtskega procesa pomembna osredotočenost na miselno komponento - vodenje k uvidu in preokvirjanje obstoječih zaznav. Z upoštevanjem klientkinega psihosocialnega konteksta in s psihoterapevtsko obravnavo pomembnih vidikov za povrnitev duševnega zdravja, je potekalo tudi neposredno na simptom usmerjeno delo, ki je vključevalo tudi izvajanje avtogenega treninga. Poleg izvajanja v okviru terapevtskih srečanj, je klientka tudi doma osnovni postopek avtogenega treninga redno prakticirala. Po mesecu dni vadbe je v evalviranju doseženega opredelila boljšo koncentracijo in osredotočenost na samo izvajanje vaj, doseganje splošne umirjenosti v vedno krajšem času, predvidoma sedem minut, občutek toplote in teže v rokah in nogah že od samega začetka izvajanja, čez čas pa tudi občutek toplote v solarnem pleksusu in hladnega čela. Že med začetnimi izvajanji je uspela doseči normaliziranje srčnega utripa, ki pa je bil pri opravljanju vsakodnevnih dejavnosti in v izpostavljenih situacijah (prisostvovanje pouku, šolska ekskurzija, obisk trgovine, bazena ipd.) še vedno pogosto pospešen. Težave s pulzom so vidno izzvenele po trimesečnem rednem izvajanju avtogenega treninga, v kombinaciji s krajšo ustvarjalno vizualizacijo in z izgovarjanjem namernih zasebnih formul, zlasti za krepitev občutka varnosti in mirnosti v različnih situacijah, in vzporedno s psihoterapijo. Prav tako se je ponovno vzpostavila splošna mirnost, brez tesnobnih občutij. Klientka je poročala tudi o bolj samozavestni drži in zmožnosti asertivnejšega izražanja v odnosih. Skozi proces celostne pomoči si je klientka povrnila občutek varnosti, ojačala zaupanje vase in uspešno sledila aktualizaciji, ter v splošnem ponovno prevzela nadzor nad življenjem. Poleg znanja, ki ga je pridobila na psihoterapiji, je usvojila in samostojno uporablja tudi avtogeni trening, kot orodje za samopomoč v stresni situaciji. 21 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Sklepna misel Trajajoče širjenje koronavirusa in spremljajoči omejevalni ukrepi so prinesle številne posledice za slehernega posameznika – bodisi na socialni, duševni ali ekonomski ravni. Močne spremembe vsakdana in obstoječe rutine otrok, mladostnikov in odraslih, so zahtevale ogromno prilagoditev. Ob tem se je vse več otrok in mladostnikov soočalo z duševnimi motnjami, anksioznostjo, depresivno simptomatiko in destruktivnim vedenjem. V pričujočem prispevku smo se osredotočili na uporabo tehnike avtogenega treninga, vzporedno s psihoterapevtskim procesom, za odpravljanje anksioznosti pri dijakinji. Avtogeni trening je metoda, s katero lahko dosežemo splošno umirjenost, ne le med izvajanjem vaje, ampak trajno. Prispeva k temu, da posameznik utrdi svojo osebno držo, zaupa vase in ostane umirjeni tudi takrat, ko pride do obremenitve. Tako okrepi odpornost na stres, odziv na negativna čustva, ki vplivajo na duševno ravnovesje in telesno zdravje. Posameznikom omogoča, da se zavedajo manifestacij znotraj sebe, v svojih fizičnih telesih in na mentalni ter duhovni ravni. Ozavestijo lahko lastne ponavljajoče se negativne vzorce življenja. Deluje po principu »tisto, kar um povzroči, um lahko ozdravi« in je odlična bližnjica do samoizboljšanja. Z avtogenim treningom osebi omogoči pridobivanje novega in uspešnega načina razmišljanja in obstoja. Prednosti so številne, nekatere so takojšnje, denimo protiukrepi akutnega stresa ali utrujenosti, druge pa usvojimo čez čas. Avtogenemu treningu se ne pripisuje zdravilne moči, temveč se ga opredeljuje kot sredstvo, ki prepreči ali olajša bolezenska znamenja. 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An International Journal of Experimental Educational Psychology 33 (7), 849–861. 23 Perfectus AC 1/2023 SPREMEMBA VLADE IN NJEN VPLIV NA MEDIJSKO DEMOKRACIJO V MAKEDONIJI Maja Blaževska-Evrosimoska https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9089-4601 1 Žaneta Trajkoska https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9862-8637 2 Prejem: 23. 7. 2023 Poslano v recenzijo: 2. 8. 2023 Sprejeto v objavo: 15. 9. 2023 Povzetek: Namen: Raziskati vpliv političnih sistemov na medije v kontekstu demokratizacije medijskega prostora. Osredotočiti se na izzive, s katerimi se soočajo mediji in novinarji v tranzicijskih družbah, ter na posledice teh izzivov za medijsko svobodo in širše družbeno okolje. Metodologija: Izvesti primerjalno analizo medijskih sistemov v različnih tranzicijskih družbah, s poudarkom na primeru Severne Makedonije. Uporabiti metodo kvalitativne analize vsebine, vključno z analizo medijskih poročil, novinarskih kod in intervjuji z novinarji in medijskimi delavci. Temeljiti analizo na relevantnih teorijah medijev, demokracije in tranzicije. Ugotovitve: Politični sistemi močno vplivajo na medije, saj pogosto odražajo in reproducirajo obstoječe politične strukture in ideologije. Kratkoročne spremembe v izvršilni veji oblasti običajno ne vodijo k trajnostni demokratizaciji medijskega prostora. V tranzicijskih družbah se soočajo mediji in novinarji s številnimi izzivi, kot so politični vpliv, nadzor in kršitve novinarskih standardov. Politične stranke pogosto prevzemajo vlogo medijev, s čimer se izkrivlja vloga medijev kot neodvisnih nadzornikov družbenih in javno pomembnih procesov. Te težnje negativno vplivajo na medijsko svobodo, slabšajo položaj novinarjev in medijskih delavcev ter ovirajo demokratični proces. Omejitve raziskave: Raziskava se osredotoča na omejeno število primerov in ne more generalizirati vseh ugotovitev na vse tranzicijske družbe. Vendar pa ponuja pomemben vpogled v izzive, s katerimi se soočajo mediji v teh družbah, in poudarja pome neodvisnih in svobodnih medijev za delovanje demokracije. Praktične in/ali družbene implikacije: Ugotovitve raziskave so relevantne za oblikovalce politik, medijske delavce in civilno družbo v tranzicijskih družbah. Podpirajo prizadevanja za krepitev medijske svobode, neodvisnosti in profesionalizma ,ter za spodbujanje pluralne in odprte medijske krajine. Izvirnost: Raziskava ponuja nov in kritičen vpogled v kompleksne odnose med političnimi sistemi in mediji v tranzicijskih družbah. Prispeva k razumevanju izzivov demokratizacije medijskega prostora in poudarja pomen neodvisnih medijev za delovanje zdrave demokracije. Ključne besede: mediji, politični sistem, demokracija, pluralizem, propaganda, manipulacija, nadzor. THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT CHANGE ON MEDIA FREEDOM IN NORTH MACEDONIA Abstract: The influence of political systems on the media is significant, as the media often reflect the political environment in which they operate. Changes in political structures affect both the media and society as a whole. However, short-term changes in the executive branch do not usually lead to the democratization of the media space. Examples of the transition from a communist system to a democracy, such as the case of North Macedonia, show the persistence of established patterns of behavior of political parties towards the media. The journalistic profession often faces the inability to resist political influence and control, which is also reflected in violations of journalistic codes and standards. Political parties that use aggressive marketing and public relations strategies take on the role of the media, while the media and journalists become entangled in political conflicts. This leads to a distortion of their primary roles. These trends have a negative impact on media freedom, worsen the position of journalists and media workers, and make it more difficult for them to play their role as watchdogs of social and public processes. The consequences are also visible in the broader political environment. Keywords: media, political system, democracy, pluralism, propaganda, manipulation, control. JEL Classification: L82 Entertainment • Media Paper categorization: Review Korespondenčni avtor: Žaneta Trajkoska, zanat@iks.edu.mk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11035667 1 Al Jazeera Balkans, Filip Vtori Makedonski 3, Skopje, Makedonija; maja_blazevska@hotmail.com 2 direktorica, Inštitut za komunikacijske študije, Yuri Gagarin 17-1/1, Skopje, Makedonija; zanat@iks.edu.mk 24 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Introduction and literature review The media outlets are the mirror of the society, inextricably linked to the overall societal and political context. The role of the media is to inform, educate and entertain, but they also carry the right of the public to be informed and involved in public interest processes. As one of the main correctors in society, their work is to point out the irregularities and publicly address the problems and open a debate on possible solutions. The first social value that affects the media outlets and the way of thinking about mass communication is freedom – it is the basis for opposing all paternalistic, authoritarian and manipulative uses of media outlets or the interference of the government or the church in the communication process. Freedom means open access to communication channels, resistance to manipulation and censorship and full freedom of expression with respect for others, including non-violation of the country security (McQuail, 1994). The most important comparative analyzes of media outlet systems show that they are shaped by a multidimensional set of areas and variables – from market mechanisms and economic forces to political area, the political system, and its features. Mass communication is considered a social, sociological, and cultural phenomenon, and the media outlets often take the shape of the political environment in which they operate. In order to perceive the differences in media outlet systems it is necessary to take a look at the social systems in which they work (Hallin and Mancini, 2004, 9). Political and media outlet systems undoubtedly influence the processes, but they also influence each other. There are several theories that analyze the relationship between media and politics. According to the instrumentalization theory, the media is dependent on politics because it tries to direct the media and their political functions to its own benefit. (Kunczik and Zipfel, 2006). On the other hand, there are theories that the emergence of modern media has influenced politics. Such development is called "mediatization of politics", which means that the media outlets, especially television, have subordinated politics to their rules. When it comes to the mutual influence of the media outlets and politics, the media intrusion theory speaks of the fact that the media has taken the place and role of the politics (Baran and Davis, 2010). According to Hallin and Mancini, there are three models of media outlets and politics: the Mediterranean- polarized plural, the North European or democratic corporatist model and the North Atlantic or liberal model. However, due to the impossibility of including post-communist states, countries that do not belong to Western culture and new democracies in these models, they are defined as hybrid regimes (Voltmer, 2013). North Macedonia, like the rest of the Western Balkans countries, is part of the hybrid regimes. Four decades ago, it began its transition to a democratic society, but it is still facing the post-communist legacy along the way. In addition to the changes in the political systems during the transition period, the democratization of the media outlets and the media legislation were difficult to implement. The public debates were based on the assumption that media legislation is unnecessary and that everything should be left to the free regulation of the ideologically and politically neutral market (Bašić and Petković and Jusić, 2004). It is impossible to eliminate the institutional traces inherited from the past when transforming the institutions that served the old regime, and those traces are not only present in the procedures and rules, but they also shape the expectations and behavior of the representatives of the institutions and external stakeholders (Voltmer, 2013, 12). This paper will show that, in the short term, it is impossible to remove the features of the authoritarian rule despite the change of government and the process of democratization of the system, and that the matrices on which political representatives and the media outlets are used to work are difficult to change. In order to examine the dilemma posed in the research question, in-depth interviews were conducted in 2017 and 2023 with ten most prominent representatives from the journalistic area in Macedonia: editors, journalists, professors of communication, leaders of media professional and professional organizations and journalistic associations, asking a set to questions related to the presence of political pluralism in the media outlets, the manner in which the media is instrumentalized, how political pressures have an impact on professionalism in journalism, journalistic autonomy and the economic status of journalists. The Macedonian society underwent a long political crisis, which grew into the so-called ‘Colorful Revolution’ since 2016. Thousands of protesters took to the streets every day demanding justice after the then Macedonian president granted amnesty to 56 politicians and their associates, mainly suspects from the Special Prosecutor's Office for the wiretapped recordings published by the opposition. In those recordings, senior officials of the then ruling VMRO-DPMNE are involved in illegal activities – a party that has been in power for ten years by the time of the protests. During the period of rule of the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE, there was a sharp decline of 89 positions according to the Reporters Without Borders ‘Media Freedom Index’ – from 34 th place in 2009 to 123 rd place in 2014. A change of government in 2017 brought a new government formed by the center-left party SDSM and the most popular party among the Albanians – DUI, which were also part of the previous Cabinet. In order to determine whether, according to media outlet representatives, there has been a change in the democratization of the society and increase in media freedoms with the change of government that was previously led by a center-right party whose rule was defined as an "authoritarian regime", towards center-left parties or a democratic regime, a small experiment was carried out - the same questions were asked to the same editors and journalists both in 2017 and in 2023. 25 Perfectus AC 1/2023 2017 – the captured media outlets in the captured state The research conducted in 2017 concluded that the media outlets are not sufficiently strong to respond to political pressures and control, which is mostly of an institutional and economic nature. "The media show a low level of integrity because informational-promotional discourse with elements of propaganda dominated the news”. 3 The informing leans towards the political parties in power, and the media outlets are used in fighting against different opinions, but they are also involved in political conflicts, some created by themselves. "The practice of strong connection, in which the border between the government and the media is not present, was set by the government of the Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, which spent 38 million euros from 2008 to 2015 on campaigns in electronic and print media. With this money, the Government directly influenced the editorial policy of the media and practically all the media had one editor, who sat in the government - it was the head of the Prime Minister's office”. 4 Due to political influences, the dissemination of fake news, even hate speech, is not a new phenomenon. "The captured state in Macedonia also captured the media outlets" 5 . In addition to political control, there is also the absence of a culture of debate, lack of diversity and pluralism in the media, including lack of political duels. "There was no space for the opposition in the public broadcasting service for years" 6 . The analysis of the interviews shows that there is no real independence in the work of the media outlets, and the environment in which journalists work is unfavorable. The environment is also complemented by a feeling of lack-of-protection by judicial institutions. Topics of essential importance such as European integration, social issues, the rule of law, are absent in the media outlets. On the other hand, there is ‘cheering’ journalism and media framing according to party and government guidelines. The respondents point out the strong connection between the media owners and politicians. "Some of the media owners were directly involved in political processes as leaders of political parties" 7 . Due to the influence of the ruling elites, the public broadcasting services cannot respond to the needs of the public interest. "The dominant power of the government over the media was mostly reflected in the public service" 8 . The main conclusion of all the respondents is that the strengthening of the media, especially in terms of the economic aspect, is possible when the institutions are strengthened and the legislation and the self-regulation of the media outlets are improved, and when conditions for equal access to the advertising market will be created. These aspects are crucial for democratization of the media. 2023 - media environment in a familiar matrix After six years, the same questions were asked to the same media professionals and editors who, for the most part, are still in the same positions in 2023, and those who are not leading the journalist associations in 2023 are working as chief media editors. All of them are active in the world of journalism, hold public positions and have a strong impact in the public sphere in Macedonia. Analyzing their answers six years later, shows that there is no big change in the media landscape in terms of the media environment. Instead of political pluralism, political "bipartism 9 " is present", and it is rare to hear the views of smaller political parties or opposing views from other representatives in the public. "There is strong hierarchism in the media" 10 , states one of the respondents. What is problematic, the respondents say, is the lack of criticism on the conveyed views of the political parties' or, in a worse case, obscuring of certain information from the public if they could have the potential to change the effect or the opinion of the public. Political parties have assumed the role of media, by creating news and media content in the online and social media. The reaction of the media professionals is that those ‘officers’ cannot qualify as journalists. "You do not do transparency with aggressive PR, where part of the work of journalists is taken away, but a two-way communication and transparency is needed" 11 . In terms of the ethnic division in the media outlets, there are no different political pressures and influences in the Macedonian or Albanian language media outlets. "The media outlets did not perform the necessary function of integration" 12 . Media owners remain the main link between political parties and media, and their influence on editorial policy is usually for lucrative reasons or personal interests. "The private televisions tell the government what advertisements it should make, how much, under what conditions they should be aired, how much they should cost, how they should be dispersed. Believe me, that did not exist even in the time of communism". 13 It is concluded 3 Interview with a professor of communication conducted on November 9, 2017 4 Interview with a journalist in a television channel conducted on October 11, 2017 5 Interview with the president of a journalist association conducted on November 12, 2017 6 Interview with a journalist from a television channel conducted on October 11, 2017 7 Interview with a professor of communication conducted on November 7, 2017 8 Interview with a journalist from a news agency conducted on October 24, 2017 9 Definition given by a media editor in an interview. 10 Interview with a television editor conducted on June 30, 2023 11 Interview with a journalist in a television channel conducted on June 28, 2023 12 Interview with a communication professor conducted on June 22, 2023 13 Interview with a journalist in a television channel conducted on June 22, 2023 26 Perfectus AC 1/2023 that the legal framework protects against political influences, but an impartial and non-selective implemented of those legal provisions is needed. As for the public broadcasting service, there is less criticism in terms of politicization in contrast to 2017. Most of the respondents believe that this is the place where reforms in the media outlets should start. Reforming should also continue in the Agency for Audio and Audio- Visual and Media Services in order to influence other media to comply with standards and self-regulation. Journalists' associations are committed to improving the situation in the media space, but it is pointed out that greater engagement and influence on the owners, managers and chief editors in the media is needed. Conclusion When comparing the key insights from 2017 and 2023, several trends clearly show. The main one is that, despite some relaxation in the media, there is still no democratization in the true meaning of this notion. Indirect influences and copying the behavior of the authoritarian regime that ruled the country for more than a decade influence some respondents to feel "defeated when they believed that after the change of government, the media will serve the public interest." Political parallelism has sharply divided the country to the point where it is difficult to agree on any issue, or as Voltmer says, to accept the validity of an opposing opinion. In order to have democratization of the environment in both the public space and in the media outlets, it is necessary to create equality in the advertising market and not to allow the re-introduction of the concept of public campaigns or government funding of private media. In such an environment, it is necessary to strengthen the influence of the public service and its credibility. However, most of the interlocutors say that a reduction in political influences is noticeable in the work of the public service for the last six years – there is no instrumentalization as it was the case in the previous research. The democratization in the media outlets must be followed by a democratization of the rest of the areas and institutions in the country, that is to institutionally process the publicly known scandals and corruption cases in order to prove the impact of the media work. Although there is a difference in terms of economic status of journalists, in both surveys the economic situation of the journalists and low salaries are considered as one of the reasons for political influence on the media outlets. "A stable job and a solid salary are key for a journalist to remain immune to any control and influence" 14 . In the context of media democratization, greater efforts are needed to strengthen the professionalization, especially at the faculties of journalism, which today barely enroll a dozen students. Priebe stated in his report 15 that journalists do not have the skills to get information" 16 , the political parties are generators of superficiality in the public space, the media must provide quality information, otherwise there will be an uninformed electorate in the country. By analyzing the interviews and comparing the tendencies in the two periods, it can be concluded that there are certain indicators that show that the relaxation of politics or the democratization in the society as result of the change of government from authoritarian to democratic which lead to better media environment, but not to a great extent. The period of six years is not enough to see significant changes happening in media democratization and increased freedoms. This is also shown by the jump of 19 places in the ranking of Reporters Without Borders, who are stating that the spread of disinformation and low professionalism contribute to the reduction of public support for the media. Macedonia is placed 38th out of 180 countries on the media freedom index in 2023. That is the best position since 2009, however, we must note the changed methodology used to prepare this index. Six years since the change of the government and democratization of the country, according to Freedom House, Macedonia is still a partially free country. In its report, they describe the media space in the country as deeply polarized along political lines, and the private media connected to political and business interests. The determination of the political parties in creating media content and their work as media outlet 24/7 is also a factor that does not contribute towards changing the situation. In addition, the reluctance of the media to adapt to new technologies, usage of social media and media transformation is also a factor in the weak democratization of the media and their complete freeing of the party influence. The media are a mirror of the society, inextricably linked to the entire societal and political context, thus the state of democracy in the country is not at a desirable level. Media and political systems affect the main processes in the countries, but above all they also affect each other. Professionalization and compliance with higher ethical standards in both areas is the key towards strengthening the public awareness and its right to be informed. Without improvement of the media environment, there will be no improvement of the democratic capacities of the society as these relations are interdependent, depending on each other in the negative context of pressures and influences as well. 14 Interview with an editor in the public service conducted on June 29, 2023. 15 The report is cited in the references. 16 Interview with a communication professor conducted on June 22, 2023. 27 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Viri in literatura: 1. Baran, S. and Davis, D. (2010). Mass Communication Theory Foundations, Ferment and Future. Boston: Wadsworth Cengage Learning. 2. Bauer, AT, (2007). Media for open society, media responsibility as the foundation of democratic media culture. Zagreb: ICEJ. 3. European Commission. (2015). Report: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Recommendations of the Senior Experts Group on Systemic Rule of Law issues relating to the communications interception revealed in Spring 2015. https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/1420776.html. 4. Hallin, D. and Mancini, P. (2004). Comparing Media Outlet Systems Three Models of Media outlets and politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 5. Hallin, D. and Mancini, P. (2012). Comparing Media Outlet Systems Beyond the Western World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 6. Kunczik, M. and Zipfel, A. (1998). Introduction to science. Skoplje: Fondacija Friedrich Ebert. 7. Kunczik, M. and Zipfel, A. (2006). Uvod o znanost o medijima i komunikologiju. Zagreb: Zaklada Friedrich Ebert. 8. Laughey, D. (2009). Media studies Theories and Approaches. Harpenden: Kamera Books. 9. McQuail, D. (1994). Stari kontinent, novi mediji. Beograd: Nova. 10. McQuail, D. (2010). Mass Communication Theory. (6th edition), Los Angeles/ London/ /New Delhi/ Singapore/Washington DC: SAGE. 11. Peruško, Z. (2013). Komparativna analiza postsocijalistiških mediasih sustava. Zagreb: Fakultet politicheskih znanosti. 12. Voltmer, K. (2006). Mass Media and Political Communication in New Democracies. Routledge/ECPR Studies in European Political Science, London: Routledge. 13. Voltmer, K. (2013). Building Media Outlet Systems in the Western Balkans: Lost between Models and Realities. Sarajevo: Analitika − Center for Social Research. 14. Voltmer, K. (2013). The media in transitional democracies. Cambridge: Polity Press. 15. Vreg, F. (1991). Democratic communication. Sarajevo: FPN. 28 Perfectus AC 1/2023 ODPORNOST IGRALNIŠKE INDUSTRIJE NA KRIZNE RAZMERE Darko Lacmanović https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8800-9381 1 Andrej Raspor https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8098-9554 2 Prejem: 20. 10. 2023 Poslano v recenzijo: 3. 11. 2023 Sprejeto v objavo: 2. 12. 2023 Povzetek v jeziku prispevka: V prispevku so podani argumenti o tem, kako je igralništvo odporno na krize. Na podlagi zbranih podatkov od leta 1998 do 2022, ko je svet zajelo več kriz,, smo analizirali svetovne igralniške prihodke v svetovnem BDP-ju. Iz tega smo izpeljali glavno raziskovalno vprašanje: Ali krize vplivajo na prihodke iz iger na srečo ter kakšen delež svetovnega BDP predstavljajo? Podatke smo zbrali iz različnih baz. Najbolj so nam koristili podatki Statista in H2 Gambling Capital. Podatke smo analizirali s pomočjo Tableau 2022.1, in sicer tako, da smo napovedali, kakšno bo stanje leta 2033. Ugotovili smo, da se bo v naslednjih desetih letih igralniški trg še vedno razvijal. Glavnino tega razvoja bo prispevalo internetno igralništvo. Glavna ugotovitev je, da tudi igralniška dejavnost ni popolnoma imuna na krize. V kolikor gre za svetovne finančne krize (primer gospodarske krize 2008) ali zaprtje javnega življenja ter prepoved gibanja po svetu (COVID-19), je seveda ta vpliv lahko velik. V primeru lokalnih kriz pa ta vpliv zanemarljiv, saj je na svetu vedno gospodarstvo, ki je v boljši kondicije in zato tam živeči ljudje krize ne občutijo. Vedno pa je potrebno gledati krize z zamikom, saj šele to da pravi uvid v obsežnost krize. Ključne besede: igre na srečo, spletno igralništvo, BDP, kriza, COVID-19. GAMING'S RESILIENCE IN TIMES OF CRISIS Abstract: The article presents arguments about how the gaming industry is resistant to crises. Based on the data collected from 1998 to 2022, when the world was engulfed by several crises, we analyzed the global gambling revenues in the global GDP. From this, we derived the main research question: Do crises affect gambling revenues and what share of global GDP do they represent? We collected data from various databases. Statista and H2 Gambling Capital data were the most useful to us. We analyzed the data with the help of Tableau 2022.1, namely by predicting what the situation will be in 2033. We found that in the next ten years, the gaming market will continue to develop. However, the majority of this development will be contributed by internet gaming. The main conclusion is that even the gambling industry is not completely immune to crises. In the case of global financial crises (the example of the 2008 economic crisis) or the closure of public life and the ban on movement around the world (COVID-19), this impact can of course be large. In the case of local crises, however, this influence is negligible, because there is always an economy in the world that is in better condition, and therefore the people living there do not feel the crisis. However, it is always necessary to look at crises with a delay, only this gives a true insight into the extent of the crisis. Keywords: gambling, online gaming, GDP, crisis, COVID-19. JEL Classification: L83 Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism Kategorizacija: Izvirni znanstveni članek Korespondenčni avtor: Darko Lacmanović, lacmanovicdarko@gmail.com DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11035687 1 University Mediterranean, Faculty of tourism “Montenegro tourism school”, Josipa Broza bb, 81000 Podgorica, Montenegro, lacmanovicdarko@gmail.com 2 School of Advanced Social Studies, Gregorčičeva ulica 19, 5000 Nova Gorica, Slovenia, Central Europe Association of Tourism Management, Dolga Poljana 57, 5271 Vipava, Slovenia, andrej.raspor@t-2.si 29 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Uvod Ko imamo v mislih igre na srečo ali z drugimi besedami hazard, se je potrebno zavedati, da to ni novi pojav, ki bi bil značilen zgolj za sodobne družbe. Star je kot človeštvo samo (Kuss in Griffiths 2012). Nove so njegove pojavne oblike, ki so le posledica razvoja naprav in tehnologije. Trg komercialnih igralnic je v zadnjih nekaj desetletjih doživel pomembno rast. Zahvaljujoč tekočemu legaliziranju dejavnosti povezanih z igrami na srečo in razvoju doživljajskega gospodarstva na mnogih delih sveta, so se licencirane igralnice razširile na nove trge in ustvarile rekordne prihodke. Poleg klasičnih igralnic in stavnic se pojavi veliko število ponudnikov spletnih iger na srečo. Leta 2022 je svetovna tržna vrednost celotne igralniške (klasične in posebne igre na srečo v igralnicah in na spletu) industrije znašala skupno 510 milijard ameriških dolarjev. In to kljub temu, da se je panoga šele začela postavljati na noge po pandemiji koronavirusa (COVID-19), ki je številne igralnice prisilila v zaprtje za več mesecev. Ker so praviloma igralniški davki in koncesije dobrodošel priliv državnih proračunov, nas zanima, kako so se prihodki odražali v svetovnem BDP-ju. Seveda so le-ti od države do države različni. Države, ki radodarno delijo koncesije, jih imajo praviloma več. Tiste, ki pa imajo popolno prepoved, te prihodke izgubljajo. Igre na srečo so v zadnjih desetletjih doživele hitro rast, ki jo je zaznamovala legalizacija dotlej prepovedanih iger in vse večja stopnja udeležbe med gospodinjstvi. To legalizacijo vedno spremljata regulacija in obdavčitev. Vlade zbirajo prihodke od trošarin iz bruto prihodkov (npr. igralni avtomati in igralne mize) ali bruto stav (npr. loterije). Na splošno veljajo za izdelke iger na srečo precej visoke implicitne ali eksplicitne stopnje, ki so približno enake stopnjam za tobak in alkohol (Clotfelter 2005). Naša obravnava igralništva ne bo usmerjena v njeno obdavčitev, dotaknili se bomo njene odpornosti na krize. V članku so predstavljeni trije osrednji argumenti: (1) Delež spletnih iger na srečo pridobiva na pomenu. (2) Svetovno gospodarstvo ima od iger na srečo velike koristi, saj prihodki od igre predstavljajo pomemben delež BDP in državnih proračunov. (3) Igralniška panoga je odporna na krize in se kljub padcem hitro vrne na predkrizno raven. Iz tega smo izpeljali glavno raziskovalno vprašanje: Ali krize vplivajo na prihodke iz iger na srečo in kakšen delež svetovnega BDP predstavljajo? Besedilo prispevka je organizirano: Prvo poglavje obravnava teoretično in zgodovinsko ozadje iger na srečo. Drugo poglavje predstavi metodologijo, uporabljeno v prispevku. V tretjem poglavju so predstavljeni rezultati. V zadnjem poglavju pa je odgovor na raziskovalno vprašanje in smernice nadaljnjega raziskovanja. Raziskovalno področje Igre na srečo skozi zgodovino Hazarderstvo, stava denarja ali drugih materialnih dobrin na izid igre ali dogodka, kot je na primer konjska dirka, ni nov pojav (Cambridge Dictionary of American English; Dictionary of American English 2012). Igre na srečo in hazarderstvo na splošno obstajajo že v skoraj vseh kulturah in po večini sveta (Custer in Milt, 1985) in so sestavni del običajev in lokalnih kultur. Igre na srečo lahko definiramo kot igranje iger z negotovim izidom, ki ga (vsaj delno) določa naključje (Bolen in Boyd, 1968). Lahko trdimo, da je tako staro kot človeštvo samo (Kuss in Griffiths, 2012). Pravzaprav obstajajo dokazi iz obdobja prazgodovine, da so ljudje radi hazardirali. Različne antropološke študije navajajo instrumente in predmete, ki bi lahko bili uporabljeni pri hazardu, čeprav so jih bolj povezovali z magijo kot z zabavo (Petry, 2005). Kocke (astragali) so bile običajne v templjih klasične Grčije in Rima (David, 1962). Rimljani so kamor so se naselili s seboj prinesli strast do vseh vrst hazarderstva. To dokazujejo kocke iz kosti, kovine ali slonovine, ki so jih našli pri arheoloških izkopavanjih po celotnem rimskem imperiju. Zgodovinski dokazi kažejo, da je bilo hazarderstvo pogosto tudi v staroselskih skupnostih pred prihodom Britancev (Delfabbro in King, 2012) v Avstralijo. Čeprav so igre pogosto potekale v obliki tradicionalnih dejavnosti z uporabo predmetov iz rastlin ali živalskih materialov, obstajajo dokazi, da so na nekatere skupnosti vplivali prihodi evropski trgovci (Breen, 2008), ki so s seboj tudi prinašali predmete za izvajanje iger na srečo. V srednjem veku so bile priljubljene igre s kartami, kockami in določene oblike šaha. Obstajale so tudi hiše za igre na srečo (casino), ki so jih premožni plemiči obiskovali da bi stavili. Ko je oblast poznala nevarnost hazarda je sprejela omejitve za regulacijo teh ustanov in preprečevanje njihovega prehitrega širjenja (Jiménez-Murcia et al., 2014). Zakonodaja je prav tako skušala ohranjati javni red, preprečevati oderuške posojilodajalce in zbirati davke za državno blagajno (npr. Benetke, Belgija, Francija itd.). Igre na srečo so bile v starem in srednjem veku priljubljena zabava, hkrati pa so predstavljale tudi pomemben vir prihodkov za vlade in gospodo. Širitev iger na srečo po svetu Od prvih sodobnih igralnic v Benetkah (1638) naprej so igralnice doživele neverjeten razcvet. V 18. in 19. stoletju so številna evropska zdravilišča, s poudarkom na Monte Carlu, gostila igralnice. V Združenih državah Amerike so se igre na srečo v nelegalnih mestnih igralnicah, kot tudi na divjem zahodu. Država se je zavedala pomena in nevarnosti. Zato je za mesto hazarda leta 1931 določila Las Vegas, ki je bil ravno dovolj odmaknjen od velikih centrov. Zaradi vse splošnega sprejetja te panoge v Las Vegas, kot tudi zaradi prihodkov, ki si jih je iz 30 Perfectus AC 1/2023 naslova davkov obetala država je se začne širitev območij dovoljenih za igre na srečo v New Jersey leta 1976. Od tam so se razširile na zemljišča ameriških plemen, ob reke in v urbana središča ZDA. Vzporedno z ZDA so tudi evropske države (Italija, Nemčija, Jugoslavija, Avstrija itd.) legalizirale in odprle svoje igralniške ponudbe. Nekatere so bile namenjene domačim igralcem (Italija, Avstrija, Nizozemska itd.), druge pa tujim turistom (Jugoslavija, Monte Carlo itd.). Leta 1994 je vlada Antigve sprejela zakon, ki je omogočil ustanovitev spletnih igralnic na svojem ozemlju (Cotte in Latour 2008). Tu se začne novo obdobje spletnega igralništva in igre na srečo so preselile na splet. Azija pa je s svojimi multimilijardnimi projekti v Macau in Singapurju postala nova meka igralnic (Schwartz 2013) in je prehitela Las Vegas in Atlantic City. Svetovno igralništvo Era spletnega igralništva se je začela leta 1994, ko je antigviska vlada sprejela zakon, ki je omogočil ustanovitev spletnih igralnic (Cotte in Latour 2008). Možnost sodelovanja pri igrah na srečo na svetovnem spletu je posledica tehnološkega napredka interneta, programske opreme za igre na srečo in varnih plačilnih sistemov. Tako se je panoga razvijala do te mere, da je 2016 že zasedla 12. mesto (Bloomberg 2016) Svetovni indeks rasti industrije iger na srečo tako skupnih prihodkov, kot tudi spletnega igralništva od leta 1998 do leta 2022 konstantno raste (Tabela 1: Svetovni prihodki od iger na srečo in stav ter BDP (milijarde USD)). Tabela 1: Svetovni prihodki od iger na srečo in stav ter BDP (milijarde USD) Leto Prihodki od iger na srečo in stav Prihodki od spletnega igralništva GDP Spletno igralništvo v celotnih prihodkih igralništva Igre na srečo in stave v GDP Osnovni indeks prihodkov od iger na srečo (1998) Osnovni indeks prihodkov od spletnega igralništva (1998) Osnovni indeks prihodkov od iger na srečo v BDP (1998) Osnovni indeks prihodkov BDP (1998) 1998 176 0,5 31.881 0,28% 0,55% 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1999 192 1,5 33.009 0,78% 0,58% 1,09 3,00 1,05 1,04 2000 207 2,20 34.103 1,06% 0,61% 1,18 4,40 1,10 1,07 2001 220 4,20 33.857 1,91% 0,65% 1,25 8,40 1,18 1,06 2002 235 5,50 34.969 2,34% 0,67% 1,34 11,00 1,22 1,10 2003 265 7,48 39.262 2,82% 0,67% 1,51 14,96 1,22 1,23 2004 300 9,87 44.191 3,29% 0,68% 1,70 19,74 1,23 1,39 2005 310 14,30 47.868 4,61% 0,65% 1,76 28,60 1,17 1,50 2006 325 17,90 51.833 5,51% 0,63% 1,85 35,80 1,14 1,63 2007 355 18,20 58.517 5,13% 0,61% 2,02 36,40 1,10 1,84 2008 370 19,90 64.226 5,38% 0,58% 2,10 39,80 1,04 2,01 2009 370 20,51 60.821 5,54% 0,61% 2,10 41,02 1,10 1,91 2010 385 22,87 66.542 5,94% 0,58% 2,19 45,74 1,05 2,09 2011 430 25,48 73.829 5,93% 0,58% 2,44 50,96 1,06 2,32 2012 440 28,22 75.278 6,41% 0,58% 2,50 56,44 1,06 2,36 2013 445 31,22 77.440 7,02% 0,57% 2,53 62,44 1,04 2,43 2014 445 34,81 79.501 7,82% 0,56% 2,53 69,62 1,01 2,49 2015 430 37,91 75.011 8,82% 0,57% 2,44 75,82 1,04 2,35 2016 450 41,77 76.265 9,28% 0,59% 2,56 83,54 1,07 2,39 2017 465 47,11 81.089 10,13% 0,57% 2,64 94,22 1,04 2,54 2018 480 51,96 86.096 10,83% 0,56% 2,73 103,92 1,01 2,70 2019 495 55,19 87.326 11,15% 0,57% 2,81 110,38 1,03 2,74 2020 350 59,79 84.961 17,08% 0,41% 1,99 119,58 0,75 2,66 2021 410 61,50 96.488 15,00% 0,42% 2,33 123,00 0,77 3,03 2022 510 98,00 100.135 19,22% 0,51% 2,90 196,00 0,92 3,14 P ovpre č j e 362 29 63.780 6,93% 0,58% 2,06 57,43 1,06 2,00 (Raspor idr., 2023) (Anon 2023) (H2, 2023) Napovedi pred COVID-19 so predvidevale, da bo svetovni trg iger na srečo rasel z letno stopnjo rasti (Compound Annual Growth Rate CAGR) v višini 10,16 % v obdobju 2017−2021 (Wood 2017), prihodki od iger na srečo pa naj bi do leta 2022 dosegli že 635 milijard USD (Pempus 2016). To kot vidimo se ni uresničilo, saj so bili prihodki leta 2022 nižji in znašajo 520 milijard USD. Azijsko-pacifiški trg predstavlja glavno regijo te rasti zaradi nastajanja ogromnih igralnic v regiji, upravljanih s strani ameriških družb, ki bodo preusmerile nekatere ameriške čezmorske dejavnosti v regiji na bližnje destinacije. Igre na srečo so v ospredju, a si mnoge države prizadevajo, da bi povečale tudi svojo turistično industrijo. Las Vegas in Macao sta lahko sinonima za igre na srečo, vendar imajo največje igralniške družbe poslovalnice v Londonu, na Gibraltarju in na Malti. Tu so spletne igralnice in spletne igre na srečo najhitreje rastoči sektor v igralniški industriji. Drugi segmenti so pokazali stabilno rast, vendar ne obetajo toliko kot spletno igralništvo. Kar nekaj je držav na svetu, ki so odvisne od igralniških prihodkov. Igre na srečo v ZDA predstavljajo obsežno industrijo, ki je v zadnjih desetletjih doživela znatno rast, vendar pa so se po dolgem in stalnem povečanju prihodki od iger na srečo v letu 2008 začeli zmanjševati (Horváth in Paap, 2012). ZDA imajo sicer stabilno gospodarstvo in jim niti upad prihodkov v letu 2008 ni prizadel te panoge. Še več, panoga 31 Perfectus AC 1/2023 se je pobrala in sedaj dosega nove rekorde. Bolj so od igralništva odvisni v Macau in v državah, ki so izvozno igralniško usmerjene. Največ pa potrošijo za igre na srečo v Avstraliji. Glede na poročilo H2 Gambling Capital (H2G) so tu izgube pri stavah na odraslo osebo 2017 znašale 990 USD. To je za 40 % višje od Singapurja (Anon 2017). Italijani so na devetem mestu s 390 USD, od česar je polovica na igralnih avtomatih in terminalih video loterije (VLT). Igralniška industrija pomembno prispeva h gospodarstvu države. Predstavlja kar 0,45 % ameriškega BDP, kar je le nekaj manj od svetovnega povprečja (0,58 %). Dohodek, ki ga ustvarijo igralnice, se lahko uporablja za podporo gospodarskim dejavnostim, kot so gradnja šol in bolnišnic. Igralniška industrija ima potencial za ustvarjanje številnih delovnih mest glede na število, ki ga za svoje delovanje potrebuje (Wood 2017). Krize Glede na dejstvo da smo svetovno igralniško dejavnost in BDP zajeli podatke za obdobje 1998-2022 v nadaljevanju navajamo pregled gospodarskih kriz, ki so se dogajale v istem obdobju. Vplive je potrebno analizirati v drugi polovici leta oz. v naslednjem koledarskem letu. Šele tako dobimo pravi rezultat, ki pa ga je potrebno vedno širše interpretirati. Tako se kaže naslednje: • 2001: Napadi 11. septembra so močno vplivali na globalno gospodarstvo in povzročili recesijo. Svetovni BDP se zmanjša, vendar vpliva na igralniško dejavnost ni. • 2008: Finančna kriza leta 2008 je bila najhujša gospodarska kriza od velike depresije. Začela se je v ZDA s propadom hipotekarnega trga in se nato razširila po vsem svetu. Ta kriza je postopoma zajela celoten svet kar se kaže tako v BDP-ju, kot tudi v igralniških prihodkih. • 2010: Evropska dolžniška kriza je bila posledica prekomerne zadolženosti nekaterih evropskih držav. Kriza je povzročila reševalne pakete za Grčijo, Irsko, Portugalsko in Ciper. Ta kriza v prvi fazi ni imela večjega vpliva na svetovno gospodarstvo in igralništvo. Vendar pa se pokaže njen vpliv v naslednjih letih. Prizadene namreč Italijo in Grčijo, ki sta poznani po tem da njihovi državljani veliko denarja potrošijo za igre na srečo. • 2014: Kriza v Ukrajini je povzročila prve gospodarske sankcije proti Rusiji in zaostrila geopolitične napetosti. Sama ta kriza ni imela večjega vpliva, vendar pa se je istočasno dogajala tudi kriza na monetarnih trgih EU in izbruh ebole. Pojavijo se tudi napetosti v islamskih državah severne Afrike. Vse skupaj pa se kaže na svetovnem BDP-ju in igralniških prihodkih. • 2015: Begunska kriza je bila posledica sirske državljanske vojne in drugih konfliktov na Bližnjem vzhodu in v severni Afriki. Pojavijo se napetosti in gospodarstvo se skrči. • 2020: Pandemija COVID-19 je povzročila globalno zdravstveno krizo in gospodarsko recesijo. GDP se skrči za 3%, vendar igralniški prihodki padejo več kot za tretjino. • 2022: Energetska kriza, kot posledica sankcij proti Rusiji in prepovedi uvoza plina in nafte. Evropske države imajo težave, vendar pa vpliva na igralništvo ni moč zaznati, saj se panoga popravlja po COVID-19. Te krize so imele velik vpliv na svet. Povzročile so gospodarsko škodo, politično nestabilnost in humanitarne krize. Neposredno in posredno so imele krize tudi vpliv na igralniško industrijo. Vendar se je pokazalo, da je in da bo verjetno tudi v prihodnosti verjetno ostala odporna na krizne razmere. Raznolikost igralcev, dostopnost iger in inovativnost industrije bodo igralniški industriji pomagale preživeti tudi v najtežjih časih. Metodologija V nadaljevanju predstavljamo metodologijo napovedovanja. Sledili smo metodologiji, ki vključuje naslednje tri korake (Slika 1: Raziskovalna metodologija): (1) zbiranje podatkov, (2) analiziranje podatkov, (3) ocena uspešnosti. 32 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Slika 1: Raziskovalna metodologija (lasten) Analiziranje podatkov z uporabo orodij Tableau Podatke smo zbrali iz različnih baz. Najbolj so nam koristili podatki Statista in H2 Gambling Capital. Podatke smo analizirali, in sicer tako, da smo napovedali, kakšno bo stanje leta 2033. Pri tem smo upoštevali že zbrane podatke od leta 2022. Proces napovedovanja Napovedovanje je proces ocenjevanja neznanega. Opredelimo ga lahko kot znanost o napovedovanju prihodnjih rezultatov. Napoved bi morala biti pravočasna, čim bolj natančna, zanesljiva in smiselna. Za izvedbo procesa napovedovanja je treba izvesti naslednje korake (Nolan, 1994; Armstrong, 2001): 1. opredelitev namena napovedovanja, 2. priprava podatkov, 3. preliminarna analiza, 4. izbira in prilagajanje najboljšega modela, 5. napovedovanje in 6. vrednotenje. Priprava podatkov Nabor podatkov zajema prihodek z enoletno stopnjo vzorčenja. Zajamemo čim daljše obdobje, saj bomo tako zanesljiveje napovedovali. Podatki prikazujejo različne količine in nekatere podmerilske vrednosti in spadajo pod tipične podatkovne časovne vrste, ki jih je mogoče opredeliti kot zaporedje opazovanih vrednosti. Ena od najbolj značilnih lastnosti časovne vrste je, da podatki niso ustvarjeni neodvisno; njihov odklon se v času spreminja in so pogosto podvrženi trendu in cikličnim komponentam. Opazovane časovne vrste lahko delimo na tri komponente: trend (dolgoročna usmeritev), sezona (sistematična, koledarska gibanja) in nepravilna (nesistematična, kratkotrajna) nihanja (Beliaeva in sod., 2013). Uspelo nam je zbrati podatke o realizaciji svetovnega igralništva od leta 1998 do 2022. Preliminarna analiza Dober način za razumevanje podatkov je vizualizacija, katere cilj je ugotoviti nekatere konsistentne vzorce ali pomemben trend. S pomočjo Tableau 2022.1, zmogljivega statističnega orodja za raziskovanje in vizualizacijo podatkovnih nizov, smo izdelali grafe za različna časovna obdobja. Izbira in prilagajanje najboljšega modela Naslednji korak je določitev primernega modela, ki ustreza podatkom. V ta namen uporabljamo pristop Box in Jenkins (Box in sod., 2015), ki omogoča, da se iz skupine modelov za napovedovanje izbere tistega, ki najbolj ustreza podatkom časovne vrste. Modeliranje ARIMA (avtoregresijski model drsečega povprečja) se lahko uporablja za večino časovnih vrst. Znanstveniki menijo, da je natančnost napovedovanja modela ARIMA visoka (Beliaeva in sod., 2013). Napovedovanje Predlagamo, da se napovedovanje izvede za obdobje od 1998 do 2033. 33 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Ocena uspešnosti To je zadnji in končni korak predlagane metodologije. Njegov potek je viden na slikah, ki so pripravljene ob analizi nabora podatkov. Vrednotenje Vrednotenje se opravi z uporabo povprečne absolutne tehtane napake (MASE), ki jo Hyndman in Koehler imata za najbolj zanesljivo (Tabela 2: Ustreznost modela napovedovanja) Tabela 2: Ustreznost modela napovedovanja Realizacija celotnega svetovnega igralništva Model Quality Metrics Smoothing Coefficients Level Trend Season RMSE MAE MASE MAPE AIC Alpha Beta Gamma Additive Additive None 38,7 21,8 0,8 6,40% 193 0,5 0 0 Realizacija celotnega svetovnega online igralništva Model Quality Metrics Smoothing Coefficients Level Trend Season RMSE MAE MASE MAPE AIC Alpha Beta Gamma Additive Additive None 6,7 3,2 0,78 71,80% 105 0,485 0,5 0 (Lastna raziskava) Če je vrednost napake MASE nižja od 1 (oz. blizu 1), je model za napovedovanja pravilen (Hyndman in Koehler, 2006). Na drugi strani mora biti informacijski kriterij Akaike (AIC) zelo nizek, kar pomeni, da je uporabljeni model primeren (Bozdogan 1987). Taki rezultati predstavljajo dokaj visoko natančnost napovedi. To dokazuje prepričanje znanstvenikov, da je natančnost napovedi modela ARIMA običajno visoka. Vse napovedi so izračunane z uporabo eksponentnega glajenja. Tako ugotavljamo, da je model napovedovanja dovolj natančen, da ga lahko sprejmemo. Ugotovitve napovedovanja Najprej navajamo korekcijsko napoved gibanja svetovnega igralništva za naslednje obdobje do leta 2033 (Slika 2: Realizacija celotnega svetovnega igralništva: 1998–2033; Slika 3: Realizacija celotnega svetovnega online igralništva: 1998–2033). Globalno igralništvo je beležilo vsa leta trend rasti. Nekoliko je zamrlo po globalni krizi 2008 in v letu 2013, ko je Kitajska začela voditi restriktivnejšo politiko do novačenja igralcev na ozemlju Kitajske. Pri napovedih smo lahko optimistični. Trg je leta 2020 občutil velik padec, a se je v nekaterih državah (Macao) že takoj 2021 začel pobirati. Pričakovati je, da bodo igralci intenzivneje trošili, ko bo stanje stabilnejše. Večja potrošnja je predvidena tudi na področju spletnega igralništva. Igralniški prihodki bodo v naslednjem desetletju stabilno rastli. Realno je za pričakovati da bodo dosegli 650 mio USD do leta 2033. 34 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Slika 1: Realizacija celotnega svetovnega igralništva: 1998–2033 Naslednje področje, ki smo ga podrobneje analizirali in izdelali napovedi je spletno igralništvo. V tem segmentu se lahko pričakuje, da se bodo prihodki v naslednjem desetletju podvojili. Prihodnost spletnega igralništva bo zaznamovana z naslednjimi trendi (Modi, 2024): • Razvoj virtualne resničnosti (VR) in obogatene resničnosti (AR): VR in AR bosta igralcem omogočila še bolj poglobljeno in interaktivno igralno izkušnjo. VR igralnice bodo omogočale igralcem, da se potopijo v virtualne svetove in se družijo z drugimi igralci v realnem času. AR pa bo igralnim elementom dodala digitalne elemente v realnem svetu. • Uporaba umetne inteligence (AI): AI bo igrala pomembno vlogo pri personalizaciji igralne izkušnje. AI bo lahko analizirala igralčeve navade in jim predlagala igre, ki bi jim bile všeč. Poleg tega bo AI lahko uporabljena za ustvarjanje bolj inteligentnih in prilagodljivih igralnih likov. • Razvoj mobilnega igralništva: Mobilne igre so že danes zelo priljubljene in ta trend se bo v prihodnosti še nadaljeval. Igralnice bodo vse bolj osredotočene na razvoj mobilnih iger, ki bodo igralcem omogočale igro na poti. • Povečana regulacija: Spletno igralništvo bo v prihodnosti verjetno še bolj regulirano. Vlade bodo želele zagotoviti, da so igre na srečo poštene in varne za igralce. • Razvoj pametnih stav: Pametne stave so nove vrste stav, ki uporabljajo AI za analizo podatkov in napovedovanje rezultatov tekem. Ta trend bo v prihodnosti verjetno še bolj priljubljen, saj bo igralcem omogočal bolj informirane stave. • Povečana uporaba kriptovalut: Kriptovalute so digitalne valute, ki so decentralizirane in varne. V prihodnosti bodo verjetno vse bolj priljubljene za uporabo v spletnih igralnicah, saj igralcem omogočajo hitre in varne transakcije. Spletno igralništvo se hitro razvija in v prihodnosti lahko pričakujemo še veliko inovacij. Zgoraj navedeni trendi so le nekateri od mnogih, ki bodo oblikovali prihodnost spletnega igralništva. 35 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Slika 3: Realizacija celotnega svetovnega online igralništva: 1998–2033 Kako pomembno postaja spletno igralništvo, se vidi iz njegovega deleža glede na vse igralniške prihodke v tabeli (Tabela 1: Svetovni prihodki od iger na srečo in stav ter BDP (milijarde USD)). Razprava o rezultatih Odgovor na raziskovalna vprašanja V kolikor najprej odgovorimo na raziskovalno vprašanje: Ali krize vplivajo na prihodke iz iger na srečo ter kakšen delež svetovnega BDP predstavljajo? Tudi igralniška dejavnost ni popolnoma imuna na krize. V kolikor gre za svetovne finančne krize (primer gospodarske krize 2008) ali zaprtje javnega življenja ter prepoved gibanja po svetu (COVID-19) je seveda ta vpliv lahko velik. V primeru lokalnih kriz pa ta vpliv zanemarljiv, saj je na svetu vedno gospodarstvo, ki je v boljši kondicije in zato tam živeči ljudje krize ne občutijo. Vendar pa je vedno potrebno gledati krize z zamikom šele to da prav uvid v obsežnost krize. Igralniška industrija se je v preteklosti izkazala za presenetljivo odporno na krizne razmere. To je mogoče pripisati več dejavnikom: • Krizno dobičkarstvo: V vojnah in krizah pridejo do izraza tisti, ki so po sami naravi nagnjeni k tveganju. Krizno dobičkarstvo se nanaša na izkoriščanje neugodnih razmer v družbi za osebno korist. To lahko vključuje manipulacijo s cenami osnovnih potrebščin, špekuliranje na finančnih trgih ali celo izkoriščanje človeške stiske. Krizni dobičkarji so pogosto brezobzirni in pohlepni, njihova dejanja pa lahko močno škodijo družbi kot celoti. Prav taki lahko ogromno zaslužijo in istočasno lahko tudi večino tega denarja potrošijo za iger na srečo. 36 Perfectus AC 1/2023 • Odziv ljudi na krizo: Še več ljudje v krizi praviloma bolj igrajo, saj gojijo iluzije o dobitkih, čeprav so možnosti za to majhne. Igre na srečo lahko nudijo začasno olajšanje teh občutkov, saj sprožajo sproščanje dopamina, nevrotransmiterja, ki je povezan z občutkom ugodja. • Raznolikost igralcev: Igralci prihajajo iz vseh družbenih slojev in z različnimi stopnjami dohodka. V recesiji se lahko zmanjša število igralcev z višjim dohodkom, vendar se lahko poveča število igralcev z nižjim dohodkom, ki iščejo zabavo in pobeg od stresa. • Socializacija: Igre so lahko tudi način za druženje s prijatelji in družino. V času socialne izolacije so lahko igre dragocen način za ohranjanje stikov z drugimi ljudmi. Te se lahko dogajajo v fizičnih igralnicah ali v virtualnem okolju. • Eskapizem: V kriznih časih ljudje pogosto iščejo pobeg od resničnosti. Igre lahko nudijo ta pobeg, tako da igralcem omogočajo, da se potopijo v druge svetove in pozabijo na svoje težave. • Dostopnost: Igre so postale bolj dostopne kot kdaj koli prej. Zahvaljujoč pametnim telefonom in brezplačnim igram na spletu lahko ljudje uživajo v igrah, ne da bi zapravili veliko denarja. Dostopne so tudi igralcem ki prej niso imeli te možnosti. Nekateri igrajo na skrivaj. Obisk klasične igralnice, bi jim predstavljal strošek za potovanje. Pot bi morali opravičevati tudi pred svojci. • Inovacije: Igralna industrija je znana po svoji inovativnosti. V kriznih časih se lahko podjetja še bolj osredotočijo na inovacije, da bi razvila nove igre in storitve, ki privlačijo igralce. Seveda pa igralniška industrija ni imuna na krize. V recesiji se lahko zmanjša poraba za igre, kar lahko vpliva na prihodke igralniških podjetij. Poleg tega lahko krize vplivajo na dobavne verige in razvoj iger. Kljub temu se je igralniška industrija v preteklosti vedno uspela opomoči od kriz. Z inovativnostjo in osredotočenostjo na potrebe igralcev lahko igralniška industrija preživi tudi najtežje čase. Praktična in originalna uporaba rezultatov Poslovno napovedovanje pomaga vladnemu sektorju in igralniškim operaterjem, da si z napovedovanjem prihodkov ustvarijo celostno sliko in dobijo splošno predstavo o prihodnjih letih. Če so potrebne kakršne koli spremembe, se te spremembe izvedejo z namenom doseganja bolj donosnega uspeha. Rezultate raziskave je mogoče uporabiti na različnih področjih. Na primer, poznavanje prihodkov od iger na srečo in stav je iz več razlogov zelo pomembno. Prvič, vladni sektor lahko izračuna delež v BDP in prihodke od davkov, ki bodo prišli v državni proračun. Drugič, analiza podatkov o prihodkih od iger na srečo je koristna za podjetja (igralniške operaterje) za napovedovanje verjetne prihodnje porabe in načrtovanje tehnoloških ciklov in stroškov proračuna. Na podlagi rezultatov analize in razprave lahko ugotovimo, da je raziskovalno vprašanje dobro izbrano in predstavlja glavno težavo, izpostavljeno v tem članku. Sklepna misel Kakšen trg predstavljajo igre na srečo pove že podatek, da približno 4,2 milijarde ljudi na svetu igra na srečo vsaj enkrat letno. Nedavna študija, izvedena v 44 državah, je pokazala, da je 56 % vprašanih v zadnjih 12 mesecih vsaj enkrat igralo igre na srečo. Ocenjuje se, da je približno 26 % svetovnega prebivalstva v nekem trenutku svojega življenja igralo na srečo (Anon, 2023). Mi smo te podatke dali v kontekst napovedovanja, kako se bo razvijala igralniška dejavnost do leta 2033. Ta raziskovalni pregled je bil namenjen prikazu porabe za igre na srečo in gibanju svetovnega BDP-ja. Na podlagi zgodovinskega pregleda smo raziskali razvoj v zadnjih 24 letih in izdelali dokaj zanesljive napovedi do leta 2033. Drugi raziskovalci se osredotočajo zgolj na napovedovanje. Sami smo to umestili v svetovni BDP. Tu se kaže, da se delež ohranja in da bo tak tudi v prihodnje. To je zagotovo pozitivno za tiste, ki kreirajo davčne politike in si lahko iz tega naslova obetajo davčne in druge prilive. Ugotovljeno je tudi, da se struktura spreminja. V korist spletnega igralništva. Spletno Igralništvo je na svetovnem trgu prisotno na številne načine, ki so že prevzele vodilno vlogo od fizičnih igralnic. Večina ljudi danes raje udobno stavi od doma, igralci pa lahko najdejo skoraj vsako vrsto igre na srečo, od spletnih igralnic do spletnih loterij (Oldroyd, 2017). Prihodkov od iger na srečo v BDP ne smemo zanemariti, vendar se nanje ne smemo preveč zanašati, saj predstavljajo preveliko tveganje. Povečana poraba iger na srečo med lokalnim prebivalstvom povečuje verjetnost zasvojenosti z igrami na srečo. Hazarderstvo je bilo in bo prisotno tudi v prihodnosti. Dejavnost sama po sebi ne prispeva k nacionalnemu dohodku, ampak prinaša prerazporeditev. Zato je smiselno igre na srečo v državi nadzorovati. Države vlagajo v razvoj le, če je igralništvo izvozno usmerjeno. Omejitve in smeri prihodnjih raziskav Članek ima določene omejitve in ponuja nekaj smernic za prihodnje raziskave. Pomanjkanje določenih podatkov kaže na omejen obseg naše analize, ki preprečuje predstavitev podrobnih ugotovitev. Vsi podatki so bili zbrani iz sekundarnih virov z vsemi omejitvami v tem smislu. Vsled tega bi kazalo zbrati podatke iz dalje časovne vrste, ki bi zajemali podatke vsaj od leta 1980 dalje. Prav tako bi bilo smiselno razčleniti prihodke po vseh segmentih (igrali avtomati, igralne mize, stave ipd.). 37 Perfectus AC 1/2023 Viri: 1. Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners (Vol. 30). Springer Science & Business Media. 2. Beliaeva, N., Petrochenkov, A., & Bade, K. (2013). Data set analysis of electric power consumption. European Researcher. Series A, 10–2, 2482. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(95)00041-0 3. Bloomberg. (2016). Bloomberg Industry Market Leaders. 4. Bolen, D. W., & Boyd, W. H. (1968). Gambling and the gambler: A review and preliminary findings. Archives of General Psychiatry, 18(5), 617–630. 5. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: forecasting and control. John Wiley & Sons. 6. Bozdogan, H. (1987). Model selection and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC): The general theory and its analytical extensions. Psychometrika, 52(3), 345–370. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02294361 7. Breen, H. (2008). Visitors to northern Australia: Debating the history of Indigenous gambling. International Gambling Studies, 8(2), 137–150. 8. Cambridge dictionary of American English ; Dictionary of American English. (2012). http://dictionary.cambridge.org/ 9. Clotfelter, C. T. (2005). Gambling Taxes. In S. Cnossen (Ed.), Theory and Practice of Excise Taxation: Smoking, Drinking, Gambling, Polluting, and Driving (p. 0). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0199278598.003.0004 10. Cotte, J., & Latour, K. A. (2008). Blackjack in the kitchen: Understanding online versus casino gambling. Journal of Consumer Research, 35(5), 742–758. 11. Custer, R. L., & Milt, H. (1985). When Lady Luck runs out: help for compulsive gamblers and their families. New York: Facts on File Publication. 12. David, F. N. (1962). Games, gods and gambling: The origins and history of probability and statistical ideas from the earliest times to the Newtonian era. Hafner Publishing Company. 13. Delfabbro, P., & King, D. (2012). Gambling in Australia: Experiences, problems, research and policy. Addiction, 107(9), 1556–1561. 14. Global Gambling Market Report And Strategies To 2032. (2023). https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/gambling-market 15. H2. (2023). H2 Gambling Capital. https://h2gc.com/ 16. Horváth, C., & Paap, R. (2012). The effect of recessions on gambling expenditures. Journal of Gambling Studies, 28(4), 703–717. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-011-9282-9 17. Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679–688. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001 18. Jiménez‐Murcia, S., Fernández‐Aranda, F., Granero, R., & Menchón, J. M. (2014). Gambling in Spain: update on experience, research and policy. Addiction, 109(10), 1595–1601. 19. Kuss, D. J., & Griffiths, M. (2012). Internet gambling addiction. In Encyclopedia of cyber behavior (pp. 735–753). IGI Global. 20. Modi, P. (2024). The Future Of Online Gaming: Trends And Innovations. EDUCATION NEXT. https://www.educationnext.in/posts/the-future-of-online-gaming- trends-and-innovations 21. Nolan, B. (1994). Data analysis: an introduction. Polity. 22. Oldroyd, K. (2017). Global Internet Gambling Expected to Grow Exponentially. GamingZion. 23. Pempus, B. (2016). Global Gambling Market To Reach $635 Billion By 2022. Card Player. http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/20865-global-gambling- market-to-reach-635-billion-by-2022 24. Petry, N. M. (2005). Pathological gambling: Etiology, comorbidity, and treatment. American Psychological Association. 25. Raspor, A., Luin, D., Petrič, U., & Horvat, T. (2023). Igre na srečo od pradavnine do današnjih dni (A. Raspor (Ed.); 2. elektro, pp. 1 spletni vir (1 datoteka PDF (XIV, 288 ))). Perfectus, Svetovanje in izobraževanje . https://www.andrejraspor.com/index.php/sl/nase-storitve/zaloznistvo/zalozba-perfectus/451-igre-na- sreco-od-pradavnine-do-danasnjih-dni 26. Schwartz, D. G. (2013). Roll the bones: The history of gambling. 27. The world’s biggest gamblers. (2017). The Economist. https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/02/daily-chart-4 28. Wood, L. (2017). Global Casino Gaming Market 2017-2021: Increase in the Popularity of Gambling Apps and Social. Cision PR Newswire. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-casino-gaming-market-2017-2021-increase-in-the-popularity-of-gambling-apps-and-social-gambling--- research-and-markets-300387138.html 38 Perfectus AC 1/2023 "V OGNJU" (NAOMI KLEIN) – TEORETIČNE IN METODOLOŠKE KONCEPTUALIZACIJE Dušanka Slijepčević https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9237-4955 3 Prejem: 17. 4.2023 Poslano v recenzijo: 3. 6. 2023 Sprejeto v objavo: 12. 8. 2023 Povzetek: "Na ognju: (Popekajoč) primer za Zeleni novi dogovor" je sedma knjiga Naomi Klein, univerzitetne profesorice z ozadjem v judovski, feministični in alter-globalizacijski miselnosti, večkrat nagrajene avtorice in soustanoviteljice organizacije za podnebno pravičnost (The Leap). Naslov knjige je aluzija na poziv Grete Tunberg na Svetovnem gospodarskem forumu v Davosu najvplivnejšim osebam, naj se obnašajo, kot da gori hiša (Planet). Gre za dragoceno znanstveno monografijo, ki obravnava raziskovanje fenomena in nadaljuje raziskovanje iz najbolj prodajane knjige: No Logo (1999), Shock Doctrine (2007), To spremeni vse (2014), "Ne" ni dovolj (2017), Bitka za raj (2018) in podobno. Zbirka je sestavljena iz esejev, dolgoročnih poročil in javnih govorov čez desetletje. Knjiga je strukturirana v dele: 1) Uvod: "Smo divji požar"; 2) Luknja v svetu; 3) Kapitalizem proti podnebju; 4) Geoengineering: Preizkušanje voda; 5) Ko znanost pravi, da je politična revolucija naša edina rešitev; 6) Klimatski čas proti nenehnemu sedanjemu; 7) Nehajte poskušati rešiti svet sami; 8) Radikalni Vatikan?; 9) Pustimo jih, naj se utopijo: Nasilje izključevanja v segretem svetu; 10) Skoki leta: Konec zgodbe o neskončnosti; 11) Hitri vtis na vročem planetu; 12) Sezona dima; 13) Stavke našega zgodovinskega trenutka; 14) Kapitalizem je ubil našo podnebno dinamiko, ne "človeška narava". Ključne besede: gospodarstvo, razvoj, klimatske težave, družba, planet. "ON FIRE" (NAOMI KLEIN) – THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL CONCEPTUALIZATIONS 4 Summary: "On Fire: The (Burning) Case for the Green New Deal" is the seventh book by Naomi Klein, university professor of Jewish, feminist and alter-globalization backgrounds, multiple award-winning author and co-founder of the organization for climate justice (The Leap). The title of the book is an allusion to Greta Tunberg's call, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, to the most influential people to behave as if the house (the Planet) was on fire. It is a precious scientific monograph, which concerns the research of a phenomenon, and is a continuation of the research from the bestseller: No Logo (1999), Shock Doctrine (2007), This Changes Everything (2014), "No" is Not Enough (2017), The Battle For Paradise (2018) and similar. It is a collection of essays, a collection of long-term reports and public speeches over a decade. The book is structured in parts: 1) Introduction: "We Are the Wildfire"; 2) A Hole in the World; 3) Capitalism vs. the Climate; 4) Geoengineering: Testing the Waters; 5) When Science Says That Political Revolution Is Our Only Hope; 6) Climate time vs. the Constant Now; 7) Stop Traying to Save the World All by Yourself; 8) A Radical Vatican?; 9) Let Them Drown: The Violence pf Othering in a Warming World in a Warming World; 10) The Leap Years: Ending the Story of Endlessness; 11) Hot Take on a Hot Planet; 12) Season of Smoke; 13) The Stakes of Our Historical Moment; 14) Capitalism Killed Our Climate Momentum, Not "Human Nature". Keywords: Economy, Development, Climate issues, Society, Planet JEL Classification: A13Relation of Economics to Social Values Paper categorization: Book review Corresponding Author: Dušanka Slijepčević, naucnicas@gmail.com DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.11035710 3 University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Political Sciences, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 4 Book review of the electronic book edition: Klein, Naomi. (2019). On Fire: The Burning Case for a Green New Deal. Canada: Alfred A. Knoff Canada, p. 249; http://groupelavigne.free.fr/klein2019.pdf 39 Perfectus AC 1/2023 ON FIRE" (NAOMI KLEIN) – THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL CONCEPTUALIZATIONS Regarding the theoretical framework of the research, the basic concepts of the chapter will be presented. In the prologue "We Are the Wildfire", Naomi points out Greta Tunberg as a global voice of conscience and a spark of climate action, while climate strikers around the world are actually a fire due to the power of the youth climate movement, which was started thanks to the enthusiasm of this girl from Sweden. Hence, the climate actions of social movements, such as the Extinction Rebellion, the Sunrise Movement, and the like, are also known. Klein explains Greta's enthusiasm for environmental activism with her health diagnoses (depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, selective mutism and Asperger's syndrome from the autistic spectrum), based on the use of a biographical approach to her resume, which give her additional motivation to fight and win. He also emphasizes the vision of the transformation of civilization - The Green New Deal to save the Planet. Namely, as it is argued in the chapter "Capitalism vs. the Climate", at the center of the climate crisis is modern "racial" capitalism, as an economic system of boundless consumption and ecological depletion, which was enabled by industrial revolutions initiated by fossil fuels, the burning of which to obtain energy caused climate changes. From the beginning, the system required pseudo-scientific and pseudo-theological theories of white and Christian supremacy (suprematism), especially the neoliberal Chicago school (F. Hayek, M. Friedman), which rationalized the treatment of people as raw capitalist property, which is exhausted and abuses without limits, just like nature, whose decay they also justified. These were, in fact, colonial narratives, which were used by the Anglosphere (the USA, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia), as myths about the right of the privileged to dominate the land and the indigenous population, in order to consolidate power and extend the culture and ethnocentrism of the West. These nations are the main culprits of the ecological collapse because they gave birth to a high-consumption lifestyle (consumerism), which is why they have produced high levels of pollution for centuries, even though the crisis is global because it also includes countries outside the Anglosphere. In the chapter "Geoengineering: Testing the Waters", Klein argues that geoengineering, as a technology to influence the chemistry of the oceans and atmosphere, is a false climate solution to the failure to reduce CO 2 emissions. While the United Nations climate negotiations start from the premise that countries must jointly respond to a common problem, geo-engineering opens up the possibility that, for less than a billion dollars, a "coalition of the willing" (e.g. North America), a single country or even a wealthy individual (e.g. Bill Gates) take the climate into their own hands, in order to save agricultural yields (e.g. corn). Reducing the intensity of incoming solar radiation, by sending sulfur into the stratosphere, affects the weather and the hydrological cycle, i.e. causing drought (e.g. in Asia and Africa), which leads to destabilization and undeclared climate wars, which is why it is better to change behavior around fossil fuels before it starts possible intervention in the basic systems for sustaining life on the Planet. "When Science Says That a Political Revolution Is Our Only Hope", is a whole conception, among which the idea that an increasing number of climate-conscious people react, in accordance with ecological awareness and conscience, in the form of countless large and small resistances, which represent a frictional force for slowing down of destabilization, i.e. "the anti-bodies against the fever of the Planet and the beginning of a revolution", according to the great climate activist McKibben, and with which other scientists, whom Klein mentions, such as the philanthropist and financier of environmental protection, Jeremy Grantham, who is called on scientists to fight more decisively to the extent that they were even arrested, if necessary (which happened to James Hansen, the godfather of modern climate science, and even to Naomi Klein herself in 2010 in front of the White House, as well as to glaciologist Jameson Box, a world-renowned an expert on the melting of the Greenland ice sheet). Among these scientific revolutionaries is one of Britain's greatest climate experts, Kevin Anderson, deputy director of one of the UK's leading climate research institutions. "Climate Time vs. The Constant Now" is a chapter in which Klein argues that climate change is made difficult to understand by the scientific fact that we live in a culture of the eternal present, while change says that what we did in the past will inevitably affect not only the present but also the generations in the future, although these time frames have already become foreign and relativized in the new digital age. Therefore, the right time for climate action is always – now. So now we need to spend less, even though consumption is the dominant activity and source of identity. Observing climate change happens at the local level, when we have a place to stand and love our "home place", because it requires connection with a certain eco-system and community, which only exists when we know a place very well and when local knowledge is passed down from generation to generation, which is increasingly rare in an urbanized society, since few people, due to migratory reasons, live where their ancestors are buried. In the thematic unit, "Stop Traying to Save the World All by Yourself", Klein points out that the idea, which dominates in the West, that we, as individuals, could play a significant role in stabilizing the planet's climate is objectively insane, although there is no better preparation of individuals for climate change than deep interdisciplinary education in ecology. In Eastern cultures, power does not rest in what an individual does, but in what is done as part of a transformation movement (e.g. organizing workers to strike for better working conditions). Therefore, we can only face the challenge together, as part of an organized global movement. Nevertheless, in the chapter "Radical Vatican", Klein points out that during the pontificate of Pope Francis, the Vatican is the most powerful example of the capacity for radical changes, even though it is one of the oldest and most traditional institutions in the world that has shown a quick ability to modify its teachings and practices, under the influence of the encyclical Laudato 40 Perfectus AC 1/2023 si (Praised be you), and based on the Pope's concern for the environment, criticism of consumerism and unsustainable development and the need for ecological conversion among Christians, for the sake of protecting God's work of nature and good life in Christ, and ecological action, since animals are brothers and sisters of man, just as Earth is the mother of mankind. In the chapter "Let Them Drown: Violence of Othering in a Warming World", Klein points out that, unlike widespread renewable energy, fossil fuels (especially oil) are concentrated in specific locations, most often found in foreign countries (Middle East), which is why the project of Orientalism - the construction of the otherness (Edward Said's concept) of Arabs and Muslims, who do not have the same rights and humanity - is the accompanying partner of dependence on fossil fuels and the feedback loop and dependence, climate change, and the legitimizer of every type of violation against them (violent eviction, land theft, occupation, invasion, etc.). An example is the Zionist project of "green colonialism", as the replacement of indigenous plant cultures with invasive European species, and as the use of forests to compensate for CO2 emissions, although this is a phenomenon that has a counterpart from the past in the American conversion of wild areas into reserves, which prevented the indigenous people from access to ancestral territories and resources to maintain a bare existence. However, such a concept of the industrial age, that the greatest risks and burden will be transferred to others, to the periphery of foreign countries and our countries, is becoming less and less sustainable, which is why climate change is discriminatory because it affects the poor first and most. In "The Leap Years: Ending the Story of Endlessness", Klein claims that, by rejecting the fiction of nature's limitlessness, we should repair our relationship with the Earth, as well as interpersonal relationships. Such an attempt was represented by the vision of The Leap Manifesto platform, as the first version of the Green New Deal, in order to connect climate actions with the transition to a fairer and more inclusive economy, i.e. green jobs, as all activities that enrich the community and do not burn much, or not at all, of fossil fuels (installation of solar panels, day care, care of the elderly and sick, education, creation of works of art and the like), making communities more capable of facing the shocks of a climate-disrupted future. The idea of energy democracy is also a key - that renewable energy, as well as the benefit from it, should be public property. "Hot Take on a Hot Planet" is the title of the chapter where it is claimed that climate change is throwing the world on fire, as it rapidly heats up to self-destruction through deadly feedback loops (combustion causes rising temperatures and long periods without rain, which causes more fires, which emit a greater amount of CO2 and create drier conditions and even more fires), which is why they often succumb to climate management technologies, so there is a risk of political abuse, in the form of unconventional weapons and undeclared climate wars, in which one country sacrifices precipitation in another country, in order to saved its crops, while the other can retaliate with counter-measures of heavy rainfall (floods, floods, soil erosion). Hence, climate change warns that an epidemic of resource grabbing has been reached, which is why contemporary culture, the culture of boundless plunder, is at its logical end, in order to turn towards a culture of agreement and care (about the Planet and people). Furthermore, in the chapter "The Stakes of our Historical Moment“, Klein continues the view that crises are most often tendentially provoked, in accordance with the shock doctrine, in order to use the problem-solution system to smuggle programs for the destruction of the public sphere, which additionally and shamelessly enrich the few oligarchy, although crises can also push forward, towards hidden reserves of strength and focus. This can be seen at the level of glassroots initiatives - spontaneous social movements, every time accidents happen and the reaction of those responsible is absent, which brings the community together. However, the crisis also encourages initiatives from the top (as in the case of Franklin Delano Roosevelt's New Deal) and teaches us that a "no" is not enough for transformation, but also a bold and far-sighted "yes", in order to restore and respond to the causes of the crisis. The risk is also in the connection of the gig economy (workshop, freelancer, which prefers to employ temporary and part-time workers, treating them as human resources from which it extracts material profit, and then discards them) with the digital economy, from the beginning of the 1980s, in which extractive companies treat Earth with the same disdain. In the chapter "Capitalism Killed Our Climate Momentum, Not 'Human Nature'" it is pointed out that at the end of the 1980s, the realization of the project of neoliberalism was staged, as an ideology of a deregulated market that belittled any collective action, in all aspects of life, colliding with the idea of the public sphere ("there is no society but only individuals and their families"), as well as with the imperatives of climate science and corporate regulation. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was seized by the right in America as proof of the "end of history" and a license to export the Reagan-Thatcher recipe for privatization, deregulation and economic austerity measures to all corners of the world, in order to free capital from all constraints and derail the momentum of climate action, which brought catastrophic global emissions to a peak. And autocratic industrial socialism was disastrous as CO2 emissions fell in the 1990s, when the economy of the former USSR collapsed. In contrast to these, the countries of democratic socialism (Denmark, Sweden, Uruguay, etc.) have the best environmental protection programs, so democratic eco-socialism is the best chance for humanity to survive and the political path to security. Regarding the methodological framework of the research, it is possible to state that the subject of the research is climate change (increase in the global mean temperature, etc.), which requires an interdisciplinary research approach, which Klajn applies. The topic of the book is current because climate change is a leading topic in international politics and academic circles. The research problem refers to the causes and consequences of climate change, and ways to prevent their worsening. The research questions are: What are the main causes of climate change? What are the consequences of climate change for the Earth, society and individuals? What are the ways to prevent worsening climate change? The main assumption is that the causes of climate change are fossil fuels, industrial agriculture and deforestation, or, more broadly, the modern capitalist system of limitless consumption; high-consumption lifestyle (consumerism) and 41 Perfectus AC 1/2023 excessive extraction of natural resources; 1 st and 2 nd industrial revolution; colonial narratives and the fiction that nature is limitless; the influence of the Anglosphere and the richest layers, unrestrained greed and individualism; neoliberalism and fetishizing GDP growth; autocratic industrial socialism and funding of climate change deniers and lobbyists. Special assumptions are that: 1) consequences of climate change: increase in the risk of war and conflict due to scarce resources; the rise of the radical right and xenophobia towards minorities; eco-fascism; climate barbarism; climatic stresses and dislocation of the poorest; the failure of the free market; green colonialism, feedback loops; undeclared climate wars; a culture of boundless extortion; gig- and dig-economy, while: 2) methods of prevention: spontaneous social and youth climate movements; the power of climate science; way of thinking - cooperation versus competition; participatory and energetic democracy; Jump platform; planning and regulation of the corporate sector; revision of free trade; limiting the cult of shopping and consumption; managed transition; green jobs; taxation of CO2, corporations, the rich; reduction of military budgets; elimination of subsidies for fossil fuels; behavioral change (less use of fossil fuels and more care); a culture of agreement and care; transformation movement; green left; democratic eco-socialism. The scientific goals of the research are: 1) description of climate changes, their causes and consequences; 2) understanding the causes of climate change and the socio-historical context of its occurrence; 3) causal explanation of climate change and 4) prediction of the impact of the consequences of climate change and ways to prevent it. The social goals are: expanding the fund of scientific knowledge about modern society and its problems in terms of environmental protection, and the promotion of democratic eco-social solutions and sustainable development. A combination of qualitative-quantitative methods (triangulation) was used, taking into account the qualitative character of the initial assumptions and quantitative data of the secondary type, collected from numerous (supra)national research sources (scientific journals, organizations, institutions, etc.). In addition to the methods of analysis, synthesis, deduction and induction, statistical (via secondary data) and biographical and historical-comparative methods, as well as case studies, were used. Regarding the evaluation of the used literature, it is possible to point out that the public speeches, in the form of 14 well-grounded essays from the period from June 2010 to February 2019, in the form of facts and references, are the main and adequate literature of this publication, in addition to previously published books (auto-references) of Naomi Klein. Finally, given the presented characteristics of the research, the book is recommended for reading and (self-)reflexive thinking primarily to public policy makers, who conscientiously care for public goods, and members of academic communities around the world, who are engaged, either in their ivory towers - either in the field, in the local community, on the research of the same or similar problems of nature and society. It is important that as many young people as possible read the book, so that the possible feeling of panic, in front of dystopian projections of a climate-disturbed future, will be alleviated by the comforting proposal of solutions from the book, which also provide practical instructions on how to become good ancestors of future generations, to whom we entrust the world. 42 Perfectus AC 1/2023 „У ПЛАМЕНУ“ (НАОМИ КЛАЈН) – ТЕОРИЈСКО-МЕТОДОЛОШКЕ КОНЦЕПТУ АЛИЗАЦИЈЕ 5 „У пламену: (Горући) случај за Зелени нови договор“ седма је књига Наоми Клајн, универзитетског професора јеврејске, феминистичке и алтер-глобализацијске провенијенције, вишеструко награђиваног аутора и суоснивача организације за климатску правду (The Leap). Књига носи наслов по алузији на позив Грете Тунберг, током Свјетског економског форума у Давосу, најутицајнијим људима да се понашају као да је кућа (Планета) у пожару. У питању је драгоцјена научна монографија, која се тиче истраживања једног феномена, и представља наставак истраживања из бестселера: Без лога (1999), Доктрина шока (2007), Ово мијења све (2014), „Не“ није довољно (2017), Битка за рај (2018) и слично. Ради се о колекцији есеја, збирци дугорочних извјештаја и јавних говора током једне деценије. Књига је структурисана по цјелинама: 1) Увод: „Ми смо пожар“; 2) Празнина у свијету; 3) Капитализам насупрот климе; 4) Геоинжењеринг: Третирање вода; 5) Кад наука каже да је политичка револуција наша једина нада; 6) Климатско вријеме насупрот константној садашњости; 7) Престаните да спасавате свијет сами; 8) Радикални Ватикан?; 9) Нека се удаве: Насиље над „другима“ у свијету који се загријава; 10) Преступне године: Завршавање приче о безграничности; 11) Врућ осврт на врућу Планету; 12) Ризици нашег историјског тренутка; 13) Капитализам је убио наш климатски замах, а не „људска природа“. У погледу теоријског оквира истраживања, биће представљени основни концепти поглавља. У прологу „Ми смо пожар“, Наоми истиче Грету Тунберг као глобални глас савјести и искру климатске акције док су климатски штрајкачи широм свијета, заправо, пожар због моћи омладинског климатског покрета, који је и започет захваљујући ентузијазму ове дјевојчице из Шведске. Отуда су позната и климатска дјелања друштвених покрета, попут Побуне против изумирања (Extinction Rebellion), Покрета изласка Сунца (Sunrise Movement) и слично. Гретин ентузијазам за еколошки активизам Клајн објашњава њеним здравственим дијагнозама (депресије, опсесивно-компулзивног поремећаја, селективног мутизма и Аспергеровог синдрома из аутистичног спектра), на темељу употребе биографског приступа животопису, а које јој дају додатни мотив за борбу и побједе. Истиче и визију трансформације цивилизације – Зелени нови договор за спасавање Планете. Наиме, како се у поглављу „Капитализам насупрот климе“ тврди, у средишту климатске кризе је модерни „расни“ капитализам, као економски систем безграничне потрошње и еколошког исцрпљивања, које су омогућиле индустријске револуције покренуте фосилним говорима, чије је сагоријевање ради добијања енергије проузроковало климатске промјене. Систем је од почетка захтијевао псеудо-научне и псеудо-теолошке теорије бјелачке и хришћанске надмоћи (супрематизма), а нарочито неолибералну Чикашку школу (Ф. Хајек, М. Фридман), које су рационализовале третирање људи као сирове капиталистичке имовине, која се исцрпљује и злоупотребљава без ограничења, баш као и природа, чије су пропадање, такође, оправдавале. То су, заправо, били колонијални наративи, којима се користила англосфера (САД, Канада, Уједињено Краљевство и Аустралија), као митовима о праву привилегованих да доминирају земљом и аутохтоном популацијом, ради учвршћивања власти и протежирања културе и етноцентризма Запада. Ове нације су главни виновници еколошког слома јер су изњедриле високо-потрошачки стил живота (конзумеризам), због чега су вијековима и производиле високе нивое загађења, иако је криза глобална јер укључује и земље ван англосфере. У поглављу „Геоинжењеринг: Третирање вода“, Клајн тврди да је гео-инжењеринг, као технологија утицања на хемију океана и атмосфере, лажно климатско рјешење за неуспјех у смањењу емисија CO2. Док преговори Уједињених народа о клими полазе од премисе да земље морају заједнички одговорити на заједнички проблем, гео-инжењеринг отвара могућност да, за мање од милијарду долара, „коалиција вољних“ (нпр. Сјеверна Америка), једна држава или чак богата особа (нпр. Бил Гејтс) преузму климу у своје руке, да би спасили пољопривредне приносе (нпр. кукуруза). Смањивање интензитета долазног Сунчевог зрачења, путем слања сумпора у стратосферу, утиче на временске прилике и хидролошки циклус односно изизивање суше (нпр. у Азији и Африци), што води дестабилизацији и необјављеним климатским ратовима због чега је боље промијенити понашање око фосилних горива прије него почне евентуална интервенција у основне системе за одржавање живота на Планети. „Кад наука каже да је политичка револуција наша једина нада“, цјелина је концепција међу којима се истиче идеја да све већи број климатски освијештених реагује, у складу с еколошком свијешћу и савјешћу, у виду безброј великих и малих отпора, који представљају фрикциону силу за успоравање дестабилизације односно „анти-тијела против грознице Планете и почетак револуције“, према ријечима великог климатског активисте Мек Кибена, а с којим би се усагласили и други научници, које Клајн спомиње, попут филантропа и финансијера заштите животне средине, Џеремија Грентама, који је научнике позвао на одлучнију борбу до те мјере да буду чак и ухапшени, ако треба (што се десило Џејмсу Хансену, куму модерне науке о клими, па чак и самој Наоми Клајн 2010. године испред Бијеле куће, као и глациологу Џејмсону Боксу, свјетски признатом стручњаку за топљење леденог покривача Гренланда). Међу овим научним револуционарима је и један од највећих британских стручњака за климу, Кевин Андерсон, замјеник директора једне од водећих институција за истраживање климе у Уједињеном Краљевству. 5 Приказ електронског издања књиге: Klein, Naomi. (2019). On Fire: The Burning Case for a Green New Deal. Canada: Alfred A. Knophf Canada, p. 249; http://groupelavigne.free.fr/klein2019.pdf 43 Perfectus AC 1/2023 „Климатско вријеме насупрот константној садашњости“, поглавље је у којем Клајн тврди да климатске промјене чини тешкима за разумијевање научна чињеница да живимо у култури вјечне садашњости, док промјене говоре да ће оно што смо радили у прошлости неизбјежно утицати не само на садашњост већ и на генерације у будућности, иако су ови временски оквири већ постали страни и релативизовани у новом дигитализованом времену. Стога је право вријеме за климатску акцију увијек – сада. Тако сада треба да трошимо мање, иако је потрошња доминантна активност и извор идентитета. Запажање климатских промјена се дешава на локалном нивоу, кад посједујемо мјесто за стајање и волимо своје „домаће мјесто“, јер захтијева повезаност са одређеним еко-системом и заједништво, које постоји само кад неко мјесто јако познајемо и кад се локално знање преноси с генерације на другу, а што је све рјеђе у урбанизованом друштву, пошто мало ко, због миграторних разлога, живи тамо гдје су му преци сахрањени. У тематској цјелини, „Престаните да спасавате свијет сами“, Клајн истиче да је идеја, која доминира на Западу, да бисмо, као појединци, могли да одиграмо значајну улогу у стабилизацији климе Планете објективно сулуда, иако нема боље припреме појединаца за климатске промјене од дубоког интердисциплинарног образовања из екологије. У источњачким културама, моћ не почива у ономе што уради појединац већ у ономе што се уради као дио покрета трансформације (нпр. организовања радника у штрајк ради бољих радних услова). Стога се можемо само заједно суочити с изазовом, као дио организованог глобалног покрета. Ипак, у поглављу „Радикални Ватикан“, Клајн истиче да је Ватикан за вријеме понтификата папе Фрања најмоћнији примјер способности за радикалне промјене, иако је једна од најстаријих и најтрадиционалнијих институција на свијету која је показала брзу способност модификације својих учења и пракси, под утицајем енциклике Лаудато си (Хваљен буди), а на темељу забринутости папе за животну средину, критику конзумеризма и неодрживог развоја и потребу еколошког преобраћења међу хришћанима, ради заштите Божијег дјела природе и врлог живота у Христу, те еколошког дјелања, пошто су животиње браћа и сестре човјека, баш као што је Земља мајка човјечанства. У поглављу „Нека се удаве: Насиље над „другима“ у свијету који се загријава“, Клајн истиче да су, за разлику од широко распрострањене обновљиве енергије, фосилна горива (нарочито нафта) концентрисана на одређеним локацијама, које се најчешће налазе у туђим земљама (Блиски исток), због чега је пројекат оријентализма – конструкција другости (концепт Едварда Саида) Aрапа и Mуслимана, који немају иста права и хуманитет – пратећи партнер зависности од фосилних горива и повратне спреге те зависности, климатских промјена, и легитиматор сваке врсте прекршаја према њима (насилног истјеривања, крађе земљишта, окупације, инвазије и сл.). Примјер је ционистички пројекат „зеленог колонијализма“, као замјена аутохтоних биљних култура инвазивним европским врстама, и као употреба шума ради компензације за емисије CO2, иако је то појава која пандан из прошлости има у америчком претварању дивљих предјела у резервате, чиме се старосједилачком народу спрјечавао приступ предачким територијама и ресурсима за одржање голе егзистенције. Међутим, постаје све мање одржив такав концепт индустријског доба, да ће највећи ризици и терет бити пребачени на друге, на периферију иностранства и наших земаља, због чега климатске промјене и јесу дискриминаторне јер прво и највише погађају сиромашне. У „Преступне (скочне) године: Крај приче о безграничности“, Клајн тврди да, с одбацивањем фикције о неограничености природе треба да поправимо свој однос према Земљи, али и међуљудске односе. Такав покушај је представљала визија платформе Скок (Leap Manifesto), као прве верзије Зеленог новог договора, ради повезивања климатских акција с преласком на праведнију и инклузивнију економију односно зелене послове, као све активности које обогаћују заједницу, а не сагоријевају много, или уопште не, фосилних горива (уградња соларних панела, дневна њега, брига о старима и болеснима, образовање, стварање умјетничких дјела и томе слично), чинећи заједнице способнијима да се суоче са шоковима климатски поремећене будућности. Кључна је и идеја енергетске демократије – да обновљива енергија, као и корист од ње, буду јавно власништво. „Врућ осврт на врућу Планету“ наслов је поглавља гдје се тврди да климатске промјене бацају свијет у пламен, јер се убрзано загријава до самоуништења кроз смртоносне петље повратне спреге (сагоријевање изазива раст температура и дуге периоде без кише, што изазива већи број пожара, који испуштају већу количину CO2 и стварају сувље услове и још више пожара), због чега се неријетко подлијеже технологијама управљања климом, па постоји ризик политичке злоупотребе, у виду неконвенционалног оружја и необјављених климатских ратова, у којима једна земља жртвује падавине у другој земљи, да би спасила своје усјеве, док друга може узвратити контра-мјерама обилних падавина (бујице, поплаве, ерозије тла). Отуда климатске промјене упозоравају да се стигло до епидемије грабљења ресурса, због чега је савремена култура, култура безграничног отимања, при свом логичном крају, ради заокрета ка култури сагласја и брижности (о Планети и људима). Надаље, у поглављу „Ризици нашег историјског тренутка“, Клајн наставља став да се кризе најчешће тенденциозно изазивају, у складу с доктрином шока, да би се по систему проблем – рјешење, користиле ради кријумчарења програма уништавања јавне сфере којима се додатно и бестидно обогаћује малобројна олигархија, иако кризе могу да повуку и напријед, ка скривеним резервама снаге и фокусираности. То се види на нивоу иницијативе из базе (енгл. glassroots) – самониклих друштвених покрета, сваки пут кад се десе несреће и кад реакција одговорних изостане, због чега се заједница повеже. Међутим, криза подстиче и иницијативе с врха (као у случају Новог договора Френклина Делано Рузвелта) и учи нас да за трансформацију није довољно „не“ већ и храбро и далековидо „да“, ради обнове и одговора на узроке кризе. Ризик је и у повезаности гиг-економије (тезгашке, фриленсерске, која радије запошљава привремене и хонорарне раднике, третирајући их као људске ресурсе из којих извлачи материјалну добит, а онда их одбације) са дигиталном економијом, с почетка 1980-их, у којој екстрактивне компаније поступају према Земљи с истим презиром. У поглављу „Капитализам је убио наш климатски замах, а не „људска природа““ истиче се да је крајем 1980-их година инсценирана реализација пројекта неолиберализма, као идеологије дерегулисаног тржишта која је омаловажавала сваку колективну акцију, у 44 Perfectus AC 1/2023 свим аспектима живота, сударајући се са идејом јавне сфере („не постоји друштво већ само појединци и њихове породице“), као и с императивима науке о клими и корпоративне регулације. Пад Берлинског зида 1989. године је десница у Америци приграбила као доказ „краја историје“ и дозволу за извоз регановско-тачерског рецепта за приватизацију, дерегулацију и економске мјере штедње у све крајеве свијета, како би се капитал ослободио свих ограничења и избацио из колосијека замах климатске акције, чиме су катастрофалне глобалне емисије достигле врхунац. И аутократски индустријски социјализам је био погубан пошто су емисије CO2 опале 1990-их, кад је пропала економија бившег СССР-a. Насупрот овима, земље демократског социјализма (Данска, Шведска, Уругвај и сл.) имају најбоље програме очувања животне средине, па је демократски еко-социјализам најбоља шанса да човјечанство опстане и политички пут ка сигурности. У погледу методолошког оквира истраживања, могуће је констатовати да су предмет истраживања климатске промјене (пораст глобалне средње температуре и сл.) које захтијевају интердисциплинарни истраживачки приступ, који Клајн примјењује. Тема књиге је актуелна јер су климатске промјене водећа тема у међународној политици и академским круговима. Истраживачки проблем су узроци и посљедице климатских промјена, те начини превенције њиховог заоштравања. Истраживачка питања су: Који су главни узроци климатских промјена? Које су посљедице климатских промјена по Земљу, друштво и појединце? Који су начини превенције заоштравања климатских промјена? Главна претпоставка је да су узроци климатских промјена фосилна горива, индустријска агрикултура и сјеча шума односно, шире узевши, модерни капиталистички систем безграничне потрошње; високо-потрошачки животни стил (конзумеризам) и прекомјерна екстракција природних ресурса; 1. и 2. индустријска револуција; колонијални наративи и фикција да је природа неограничена; утицај англосфере и најбогатијих слојева, необуздане похлепе и индивидуализма; неолиберализам и фетишизирање раста БДП-а; аутократски индустријски социјализам и финансирање порицатеља климатских промјена и лобиста. Посебне претпоставке су да су: 1) посљедице климатских промјена: повећање опасности од рата и сукоба због оскудних ресурса; успон радикалне деснице и ксенофобије према мањинама; еко-фашизам; климатско варварство; климатски стресови и дислоцирање најсиромашнијих; неуспјех слободног тржишта; зелени колонијализам, петље повратне спреге; необјављени климатски ратови; култура безграничног отимања; гиг- и диг-економија, док су: 2) начини превенције: самоникли друштвени и омладински климатски покрети; моћ науке о клими; начин размишљања – сарадња насупрот компетиције; партиципативна и енергетска демократија; Скок платформа; планирање и регулација корпоративног сектора; ревизија слободне трговине; ограничавање култа куповине и потрошње; управљана транзиција; зелени послови; опорезивање CO2, корпорација, богаташа; смањење војних буџета; елиминисање субвенција за фосилна горива; промјена понашања (мања употреба фосилних горива, а већа брига); култура сагласја и брижности; покрет трансформације; зелена љевица; демократски еко-социјализам. Научни циљеви истраживања су: 1) дескрипција климатских промјена, њихових узрока и посљедица; 2) разумијевање узрока климатских промјена и друштвено-историјског контекста појављивања; 3) каузално (узрочно) објашњење климатских промјена и 4) предикција утицаја посљедица климатских промјена и начина њихове превенције. Друштвени циљеви су: проширење фонда научних знања о савременом друштву и његовим проблемима по питању одржања животне средине, те промоција демократских еко-социјалних рјешења и одрживог развоја. Кориштена је комбинација квалитативно-квантитативних метода (триангулација), с обзиром на квалитативни карактер полазних претпоставки и квантитативне податке секундарног типа, прикупљене из многобројних (над)националних истраживачких извора (научних часописа, организација, институција и сл.). Поред метода анализе, синтезе, дедукције и индукције, кориштени су статистички (преко секундарних података) и биографски, те историјско-компаративни метод, као и студија случаја. По питању евалуације кориштене литературе, могуће је истаћи да су јавни говори, у виду чињеницама и референцама добро фундираних 14 есеја из временског периода од јуна 2010. до фебруара 2019. године, главна и адекватна литература ове публикације, поред раније објављених књига (ауто-референци) Наоми Клајн. Коначно, с обзиром на предочене карактеристике истраживања, књига се препоручује за читање и (само)рефлексивно промишљање првенствено креаторима јавних политика, који савјесно брину о јавним добрима, те члановима академских заједница широм свијета, који су ангажовани, било у својим кулама од слоноваче – било на терену, у локалној заједници, на истраживању истих или сличних проблема природе и друштва. Важно је да књигу прочита што више младих људи, како би евентуални осјећај панике, пред дистопијским пројекцијама климатски поремећене будућности, ублажили утјешним приједлогом рјешења из књиге, која обезбјеђују и практична упутства о томе како да постанемо добри преци будућих генерација, којима остављамо свијет у аманет. References: 1. Klein, N. (2020). On fire: The (burning) case for a green new deal. Simon & Schuster. Tu