ISSN I581-63II anagin Managing Global Boštjan Antončič International ir n R^V^fy* [vJ^cIllvl journal Managing Global Transitions International Research Journal EDITOR Boštjan Antoncic, University of Primorska, Slovenia ASSOCIATE EDITORS Egon Žižmond, University of Primorska, Slovenia Dušan Lesjak, University of Primorska, Slovenia Anita Trnavčevič, University of Primorska, Slovenia Roberto Biloslavo, University of Primorska, Slovenia EDITORIAL BOARD Zoran Avramovič, University of Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro Terrice Bassler Koga, Open Society Institute, Slovenia Cene Bavec, University of Primorska, Slovenia Jani Beko, University of Maribor, Slovenia Vito Bobek, University of Primorska, Slovenia Štefan Bojnec, University of Primorska, Slovenia Suzanne Catana, State University of New York, Plattsburgh, usa David Dibbon, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada Jeffrey Ford, The Ohio State University, usa Tim Goddard, University of Calgary, Canada Noel Gough, University of Canberra, Australia George Hickman, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada Robert D. Hisrich, The Garvin School of International Management, usA Andras Inotai, Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary Hun Joon Park, Yonsei University, South Korea Štefan Kajzer, University of Maribor, Slovenia Jaroslav Kalous, Charles University, Czech Republic Leonard H. Lynn, Case Western Reserve University, usA Monty Lynn, Abilene Christian University, usa Neva Maher, Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Affairs, Slovenia Massimiliano Marzo, University of Bologna, Italy Luigi Menghini, University of Trieste, Italy Marjana Merkac, College of Entrepreneurship, Slovenia Kevin O'Neill, State University of New York, Plattsburgh, usa David Oldroyd, Independent Educational Management Development Consultant, Poland Susan Printy, Michigan State University, usA Jim Ryan, University of Toronto, Canada Hazbo Skoko, Charles Sturt University, Australia David Starr-Glass, State University of New York, usa Ian Stronach, Manchester Metropolitan University, uk Ciaran Sugrue, Dublin City University, Ireland Zlatko Šabic, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia Mitja I. Tavcar, University of Primorska, Slovenia Nada Trunk Širca, University of Primorska, Slovenia Irena Vida, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia Zvone Vodovnik, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia Manfred Weiss, Johan Wolfgang Goethe University, Germany Min-BongYoo, Sungkyunkwan University, South Korea Pavel Zgaga, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia EDITORIAL OFFICE University of Primorska Faculty of Management Koper Cankarjeva 5, sI-6104 Koper, Slovenia Phone: ++386 (0) 5 610 2021 Fax: ++386 (0) 5 610 2015 E-mail: mgt@fm-kp.si www.mgt.fm-kp.si Managing Editor: Alen Ježovnik Editorial Assistant: Nataša Kitić; Copy Editor: Alan McConnell-Duff Cover Design: Studio Marketing jwt Text Design and Typesetting: Alen Ježovnik Managing Global Transitions International Research Journal volume 3 • number 2 • fall 2005 • :ssn i58i-63ii Table of Contents 115 The Editor's Corner 117 Corporate Ownership, Leadership and Job Charateristics in Russian Enterprises Moshe Banai Jacob Weisberg 139 Joint Dynamics of Prices and Trading Volume on the Polish Stock Market Henryk Gurgul Pawel Majdosz Roland Mestel 157 Human Capital and Economic Growth by Municipalities in Slovenia Matjaž Novak Štefan Bojnec 179 Where is the Border Between an Information System and a Knowledge Management System? Imandra Galandere-Zile Viktorija Vinogradova 197 The Quality of Entrepreneurship Education and the Intention to Continue Education: Slovenia and Romania Boštjan Antoncic Cezar Scarlat Barbara Hvalic Erzetic The Editor's Corner With this new issue, the journal enters a new phase of gaining interna- tional recognition. The journal has been recently included in two inter- national databases: the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (iBss) and the EconPapers database (the Research Papers in Economics Database - RePEc). At this occasion I would like to thank the members of the editorial team and all others who contributed with their activities to the internationalization of the journal. The journal continues focusing on the transition research and empha- sizing its openness to different research areas, topics, and methods, as well as the international and interdisciplinary research nature of schol- arly articles published in the journal. The current issue covers topics such as the impact of organizational ownership on the leadership and job characteristics, the relationship between stock returns and trading vol- ume, the nature of economic growth, the comparison between informa- tion systems and knowledge management systems, and the relationship between entrepreneurship education quality and continuation. This issue starts with a paper on the application of the Western the- ory of organization's ownership in Russia. The analyses of the authors Moshe Banai and Jacob Weisberg suggest that ownership types influence the leadership style and employees' jobs characteristics. In the second paper, Henryk Gurgul, Pawei Majdosz, and Roland Mestel analyze the relationship between stock returns and trading volume by using stock data from Poland. In the third paper, Matjaž Novak and Štefan Bojnec expose findings of the analysis of the nature of economic growth of the Slovenian economy at the aggregate and at the municipality level. The fourth paper of Imandra Galandere-Zile and Viktorija Vinogradova ex- amines the border between information systems and knowledge man- agement systems. In the last paper, Boštjan Antoncic, Cezar Scarlat, and Barbara Hvalic Erzetic compare entrepreneurship education satisfaction and quality between Slovenia and Romania and assess the relationship between education quality and continuation in both countries. Boštjan Antoncic Editor Corporate Ownership, Leadership and Job Charateristics in Russian Enterprises Moshe Banai Jacob Weisberg This study tests the application of the Western theory of organization's ownership in Russia, suggesting that ownership types - such as state- owned and private - influence leadership style and employees' jobs characteristics. A sample of 724 Russian employees in 15 service and manufacturing companies was surveyed. The results indicate that, con- trary to Western theories, the leadership in Russian state-owned en- terprises tends to be perceived as being more effective than the lead- ership in private enterprises. Similarly, jobs in state-owned enterprises are more enriched than in private companies. Explanations and impli- cations are provided. Key Words: leadership, job characteristics, state-owned enterprises, private organizations, Russia jel Classification: f, h, m Introduction ownership systems This study tests the application of the Western theory of organization's ownership in Russia. More specifically, it tests the relationship between organizations' ownership, the perceived leadership style of their man- agement, and the degree of job enrichment. The study extends the West- ern research of similarities and differences between public and private sector organizations (Allison 1979; Bozeman 1987; Buchanan 1974; 1975; Chubb and Moe 1988; Coursey and Rainey 1990; Lawler 1981; Perry and Porter 1982; Perry and Rainey 1988; Rainey 1979, 1983; Rainey, Backoff, and Levine 1976, Solomon 1986) to Russia, a country that is different Dr Moshe Banai is Professor of Management at the Zicklin School of Business, Baruch College, usa. Dr Jacob Weisberg is Professor of Management at the Graduate School of Business Administration, Bar Ilan University, Israel. The authors' names are presented in an alphabetical order indicating equal contribution. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. from the usa in its political, economic and social systems. Western stud- ies that analysed organizational economic performance have found no relationship between ownership and performance in the usa (Becker and Potter 2002) or in other countries such as the Czech Republic (Ko- cenda and Svejnar 2003), Greece or Portugal (Barbosa and Louri 2005). Yet, the theory of ownership (Pierce and Rodgers 2004) has provided continuous support to the argument that employees' ownership influ- ences employees' perceptions and attitudes towards their organization, and consequently their performance (Employee Ownership Foundation 2005). The question is to what extent an organization's ownership type actually influences workers' attitudes towards their leadership and jobs in the transitional economy of Russia. To answer this question we provide a short history of Russia's ideological system and its present ownership system. Communism was the law of the state from the Bolshevik revolution in 1917. Private property was outlawed and a centrally planned economy, based on Lenin's vision of the Russian economic system as one large en- terprise, was established. The Politburo was at the top of the national vertical chain of command, while the individual worker was at the bot- tom. Gosplan, the central planning committee, was the Politburo's eco- nomic arm, which designed five-year plans for the entire nation. These plans dictated what product would be produced in each plant, in what quantities, and at what internal price. Industrial ministries oversaw the execution of those five-year plans. Enterprise managers were personally responsible for meeting the production plans. Managers expected their subordinates to execute orders without questions in exchange for hous- ing, health and day care, recreational centers and other fringe benefits. As a direct result of Gorbachev's Glasnost (openness) and Perestroika (change) policies, the centrally planned economic system collapsed. In 1991 the Soviet Union ceased to exist and since then the country has been steadily shifting from its previous political and economic structure into a more democratic and free market economy. This new economic system is however still in its rudimentary stage. Students who investigated the Russian transformation into a free market economy have concluded that this transformation is less successful than that of other former Soviet states (Goldman 1997; Shama 1995). Thus, although the cultural difference between Russia and Western countries may not be as great as one may expect, the distinction between a free market economy and a transitional economy could be substantial. Some theoreticians advised against the use of Western management ideas in other nations (Hofstede 1980,1983; Spender 1993). Adler (1983, 1991) further contended that to assume that what was true for American workers in the usa would also be true for workers in other countries was wrong. Moreover, Western findings about the relationship between or- ganizations' ownership type and performance are, at best, mixed. Hence, we use theories of job characteristics rather than the theory of ownership to hypothesize about a possible variance in leadership styles in Russian state-owned and private companies. The next sections describe theories of leadership and those of job characteristics. leadership This study investigates contingencies of leadership in state-owned and private enterprises in Russia. It applies a variation on Fiedler's (1967, 1996), House and Mitchell's (1974) as well as Hersey and Blanchard's (1993) interpretation of the contingencies of effective leadership and Blake and Mouton's (1985) measure of leadership effectiveness. It uses job characteristics of employees to evaluate the perceived leadership style of management in state-owned and private enterprises in Russia. The dif- ferences between perceived leadership styles of managers in state-owned enterprises and in private enterprises in Russia could be delineated along three main issues: participation of employees in decision-making, man- agerial abilities, and employees' incentives. The leadership style of Rus- sian managers seems to be changing from a centrally controlled to a mar- ket oriented style. If in the past power was centralized, today managers are trying to shift some of the decision making power to their subordi- nates. Yet, in a study comparing Russian managers with us managers it was found that middle level managers in Russia enjoy less authority in decision-making than their us counterparts (Puffer and McCrathy 1993). Today's Russian managers believe that with good management they can achieve most of their organization's objectives and therefore they are geared towards doing business. They have adopted the us belief that time is a scarce resource and therefore they struggle to achieve as much as possible within time constraints. While greasing palms to promote business they still demonstrate personal trust, even though it sometimes may mean over-promising and cutting corners (Puffer 1994). By doing so, new entrepreneurs tarnish the reputation of private enterprises. Critical abilities that may lead to the success of Russian managers are networking, socializing, and politicking, followed by motivating and re- warding subordinates (Luthans et al. 1993). Puffer and Shekshnia (1994) found that the more foreign and the more privatized the company is the better will be workers' compensation. Theories of leadership (Hersey and Blanchard 1993; House 1974) sug- gest that the more mature the employees are in their jobs and the more familiar they are with their specific tasks, the more participative would be the leader's style. A positive profile of leadership should reduce the amount of uncertainty inherent in workers' tasks and, therefore, en- hance workers' sense of control with regard to receiving their rewards. Employees in state-owned enterprises have been employed by their or- ganizations longer than employees in the private sector because the pri- vate sector is a new creation in Russia. It is assumed that since employees in state-owned organizations have been there longer than their counter- parts in the private sector they are more familiar with their jobs. It is also assumed that since employees in state-owned organizations are better prepared to carry out their jobs they enjoy a more participative leader- ship style than their counterparts in the private sector, and therefore they would perceive their leaders to be more positive than would employees in private enterprises perceive their managers to be. Consequently, the following hypothesis is delineated: Hypothesis 1: Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises perceive their organizations' leadership more positively than their counterparts in private companies. job characteristics One job diagnosis that can be used to delineate variance in organiza- tional leadership appears to be the Hackman and Oldham's (1975,1980) Job Characteristics Model. Banai and Teng (1996) found that Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises enjoyed more enriched jobs than their counterparts employed in the private sector. We suggest a set of hypotheses relating to seven job characteristics, namely: autonomy, feedback from agents, feedback from job, dealing with others, task iden- tity, task significance and skills variety that correspond with Hackman and Oldham's structure. These are hypothesized to differentiate between state-owned and private companies as follows: Autonomy. Russian private companies are by definition small newly es- tablished companies that are managed by one or a few partners/owners. Owner managers were not trained in Western-style management. They are concerned with relinquishing too much knowledge to their subordi- nates fearing that the subordinates would 'steal' their contacts and there- fore their companies. They are also afraid that employees would leak in- formation to the competition to be used against their own companies. This attitude is not unique to Russian private businesses and could also be found in Western organizations. Yet, the fear of 'stealing the business' is not common in state-owned monopolies. Hence, managers in private businesses would refrain from delegation of authority to their employees. With less delegation from their managers, workers in private companies would possess very little autonomy. Hypothesis 2: Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more autonomy than their peers employed in private companies. Feedback from job and from agents. As earlier suggested managers in private companies limit workers' contacts with suppliers, customers and others, fearing that the workers will take advantage of the networking to create a competition for the newly established business. Hence, work- ers in private companies would generally have less feedback than their counterparts in state-owned companies. Hypothesis 3: Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more feedback from job than their peers em- ployed in private companies. Hypothesis 4: Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more feedback from agents than their peers employed in private companies. Dealing with others. Based on the same explanations delineated above, workers in state-owned enterprises would have more contacts with enti- ties external to the firms than workers in private companies. Hypothesis 5: Russian workers in state-owned enterprises are per- ceived to deal with others more than their peers employed in private companies. Task Identity. The newly established private company structures are more likely to be simple production lines. Workers in small newly es- tablished production lines have fewer opportunities to observe the final product than workers in large state-owned enterprises in industries such as grains (bakeries) and heating (installing and repairing electric and gas appliances) or other state monopolies. Hypothesis 6: Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more task identity than their peers employed in private companies. Task Significance. Extending the logic applied regarding the first five hypotheses and based on the description that workers in privately owned companies experience less enriched jobs than employees in state-owned enterprises, the following hypothesis is formulated: Hypothesis 7: Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more task significance than their peers em- ployed in private companies. Skills Variety. Extending the logic applied regarding the first five hy- potheses and based on the description that workers in privately owned companies experience less enriched jobs than their counterparts in state- owned enterprises, the following hypothesis is formulated: Hypothesis 8: Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more skills variety than their peers employed in private companies. Methods setting The study was conducted in Kazan, the capital city of Tatarstan, Rus- sia. The sampling has been conducted at two points in time. In the first sample three private companies and two state-owned companies were studied. Among private companies there were a specialty shoes factory, a wholesale trading firm, and a plastic consumer products manufacturer. Local entrepreneurs created these three companies from scratch. They had to secure facilities, machinery, raw materials, labour, and financing. The state-owned companies included a major polymer production fac- tory and a utility company. The factory was the largest in the city and the utility company had a monopoly in providing energy to the city. A private plastic consumer product plant and four state-owned com- panies were sampled in the second case. The state-owned companies included a utility company, a grain products company, an oil products company, and a gelatin company, all major employers in the city. The sample employed in this study was quasi-random. State-owned and private firms were used as proxy indicators of what might be found if one can get a representative sample of firms in Russia. State-owned com- panies were large enough to allow for a random sampling of employees by the administration. Managers were instructed by the researchers to go through the list of workers in production and manufacturing functions in their organization and, based on the size of the company, to ask ev- ery (n) person to complete a questionnaire. To control the type and level of job, managers and service people were omitted from the study. Due to the small size of the private specialty shoes factory and the private trading company, all employees were asked to be included. The plastic products company was large enough for a random sampling of the employees. The final statistics of the responses in the first sample are as follows: In the private plastic company, where about 150 people were employed, 50 employees received questionnaires and 36 completed them (72% re- sponse rate). In the private trading and shoe company, 18 out of a total of 25 employees responded to the survey (72%). The state-owned utility company had about 3000 employees of whom 100 were approached and 93 (92%) completed the questionnaire. In the state-owned polymer com- pany with around 3,000 employees, 100 were approached and 61 (61%) completed the questionnaire. The statistics for the second sample are as follows: A private plastic company with 300 employees was sampled and 86 out of 100 (86%) com- pleted the questionnaire. In the state-owned utility company with 3000 employees 95 out of 100 (95%) completed the questionnaire, while in the gelatin company where about 300 employees were employed 27 out of 50 (74%) completed the questionnaire. 225 out of 300 (75%) completed the questionnaire in the grains company where about 1000 employees were employed, and 66 out of 100 (66%) answered the questionnaire in the oil company where about 300 people were employed. In total, 724 out of 950 (76%) respondents completed the questionnaire. As can be learned from the statistics, state-owned companies were much larger than private ones. The newly established private companies were at the beginning of their life cycle, and therefore they were small. The state-owned companies have been there for many years and they were large. sample Education. All but a few of the 724 employees received at least a high school diploma. The scale of this measure, ranging from 1 to 5, rep- resents the following degrees: high school, associate, bachelor, master, and Ph.D. respectively. Employees in state-owned companies had signif- icantly (p = .00) more education (m = 2.35, sd = .85) than their counter- parts in private companies (m = 2.02, sd = .80). Age. The average respondent was 36.6 years of age (n = 724); employees in private companies were 34.0 years of age (n = 158) while the age of employees in state-owned companies was 37.5 years (n = 566). Tenure. Since all companies in the private sector have been recently founded, the average job tenure of private sector employees was only 3.65 years (n = 158) compared with 11.5 years for employees in state-owned companies (n = 566). Gender. Ten percent of all respondents were women. There was no sig- nificant difference between the presence of women in state-owned and private companies. Too many missing cases limited our ability to introduce the bio- demographic variables into bi-variate and multivariate analyses. The incompletion of the bio data information is a result of the fact that while questions regarding all other items were photocopied on one side of the page of the questionnaire some of the questions regarding bio informa- tion were written on the backside of the page causing many respondents to miss it. PROCEDURE The survey data for this study were collected through questionnaires and interviews. A graduate student from Russia, under the supervision of a management professor who is bilingual, translated the question- naire from English into Russian. A second graduate student from Rus- sia translated the questionnaire back from Russian to English. Any re- sulting discrepancies between the two versions were then resolved. This back-translation technique has been advocated in cross-national studies in order to provide reliability to the questionnaire (Brislin 1980; Rosen- thal and Rosnow 1991). One of the authors controlled the distribution of questionnaires to employees by their managers. The workers were gath- ered for the distribution and they completed the questionnaires without disclosing their names. Confidentiality was assured. Once completed, the questionnaires were then turned to the author and therefore there was no interference of management in the process. MEASURES AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES All participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that contained measures of leadership, job characteristics, and background information such as age, gender, education, and work experience. Leadership. The instrument measuring leadership used (Korman 1994) is based on the expectancy theory (Vroom 1964), which suggests that table 1 Loadings of 3 perceived leadership-style factors Item F1 F2 F3 Organization makes jobs as interesting as possible .81 .08 .05 Organization emphasizes performance evaluation and employees growth .78 .03 .13 Organization's rewards system is clear and consistent .76 .01 .22 Organization leadership all powerful .75 .12 .14 Organization states the problem it is facing in realistic and straight forward terms .75 .13 .06 Organization rewards good job performance .74 .19 .16 Org. structured for independent decision making .72 -.08 -.02 Organization states its plans realistically .71 .30 -.03 There are long range organizational goals .68 .22 .11 Organization uses mistakes for learning .64 .25 -.15 Job provides opportunity for individual initiative .57 .14 -.13 Employees know and understand the standards for effective job performance .16 .76 .11 Job rules and/or performance guidelines exist .24 .75 -.12 Organization requires to perform unethically .09 .43 .32 Employees have a sense of control in the organisation .10 -.12 -.68 Organization is hesitant in stating long term goals .06 .06 .68 Organization takes negative view of the world •33 -.27 .52 Eigenvalue 6.36 1.44 1.38 Percentage of variance 37.4 8.5 8.1 Cumulative percentage 37-4 45-9 54.0 Notes: F1 - positive leadership; F2 - performance management; F3 - negative leadership. N = 724. the level of work motivation is a function of valence, instrumentality, and expectancy. The instrument used here focuses on these aspects of leadership style and it contains 17 items. The Cronbach Alpha reliability test of the internal consistency of the items is .87. A factor analysis procedure measuring the perceived leadership yielded three factors (see table 1). The first factor contains 11 items and it has been labelled 'positive lead- ership'. The Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficient value for the factor is .92. The second factor, containing three items, reflects performance man- agement and has been therefore labelled 'performance management'. The Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficient value for the factor is .52. The third factor is limited to three negative aspects of leadership and has been la- belled 'negative leadership'. The Cronbach Alpha Reliability coefficient value for this construct is .54. Though the last two values are below the level recommended by the literature we used the newly established con- structs because of the exploratory nature of this study. Job Characteristics. The Job Characteristics Model (Hackman and Old- ham 1974) differentiates organizations by the prevalence of seven charac- teristics: autonomy, task identity, task significance, skill variety, feedback from job, feedback from agents, and dealing with others. According to Hackman and Oldham (1980) these characteristics are positively related to a number of desirable organizational outcomes, such as higher inter- nal work motivation and job satisfaction. The model was criticized for failing to distinguish between the objective characteristics of jobs and the respondents' perception of job characteristics (Roberts and Glick 1981). However, the validity of the model was generally supported by empirical studies (Fried and Ferris 1987) in the usa as well as in other countries (Birnbaum, Farh and Wong 1986). The Cronbach Alpha reliability test of the internal consistency of 21 items is .78. In this study a factor analysis procedure revealed six factors with eigen- value greater than one (see table 2). The factors yielded in this analysis correspond reasonably with the- oretical constructs proposed by Hackman and Oldham (1974). Out of seven original factors proposed in Hackman and Oldham's model we were able to replicate six factors. Factor 1 (jc1) includes a variety of items, two of which are concerned with autonomy; hence, it has been labelled 'autonomy'. The Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficient value for the fac- tor is .84. Factor 2 (jc2) is comprised of'feedback from agent' items (Al- pha = .83); two items out of four on the third factor (jc3) belong to the 'dealing with others' construct (Alpha = .74), and two out of three items on the fourth factor (jc4) belong to the 'task identity' construct (Al- pha = .67). The fifth factor (jc5) includes three items that belong to three different theoretical constructs. However, all three could be interpreted to indicate 'task significance' (Alpha = .54). The last factor (jc6) includes two items, one of which is feedback from job, and is therefore entitled 'feedback from job' (Alpha = .53). Oldham and Hackman's original con- struct of skills variety did not show up in the factor analysis procedure. table 2 Loadings of 6 job characteristics factors Items Original F1 F2 F3 f4 F5 F6 To decide on your own how to work AUT •77 .04 .10 .08 -.04 .02 To see the end result TKI •73 .13 .09 .01 -.09 -.14 Performance info. is provided by job fbj •58 .22 .18 .21 .07 .00 To do many different things at work skv •51 .07 .39 -.07 .30 .09 The job affects the life of people tks •49 .32 .20 .03 .20 .19 Freedom in how to do your job AUT •47 .17 -.06 .18 .25 .37 Feedback about your performance fba .15 . 84 .15 .07 .04 -.01 Supervisor's evaluation of performance fba .09 .84 .15 .07 -.04 -.01 To know how well you are doing fba .28 .80 .11 -.00 .01 -.00 A lot of cooperative work dwo .07 .09 .80 .11 .12 .03 To work closely with other people dwo .20 .17 . 74 -.09 -.21 -.03 People are affected by your job TKS .13 .29 .59 .15 .23 .10 To use a number of high level skills skv .26 .21 .44 .02 .38 .13 To do an entire piece of work TKI .09 .08 .00 .79 -.08 .02 To complete the job to end TKI .06 -.03 .01 .77 -.13 .11 The job provides feedback fbj .18 .18 .37 •52 .12 .02 The job is unimportant to other people TKS -.08 .08 .02 .21 •67 -.10 The job is simple and repetitive skv .13 .02 .01 -.24 •63 -.18 The job can be done by one person dwo .05 -.15 .13 -.26 •61 -.02 Personal initiative in carrying out the job AUT .02 .07 .03 -.02 -.10 .77 Clues about performance from job fbj -.02 -.07 .08 .12 -.12 •74 Eigenvalue 4.86 2.13 1.49 1.29 1.28 1.12 Percentage of variance explained 23.1 10.1 7.1 6.1 6.1 5.4 Cumulative percentage 23.1 33.2 40.4 46.5 52.7 58.0 Notes: F1 - autonomy (aut); F2 - feedback from agents (fba); F3 - dealing with others (dwo); F4 - task identity (ti); F5 - task significance (ts); f6 - feedback from job (fbj). N = 724. Significant statistical differences between the means of workers' atti- tudes in state-owned companies and private companies were calculated using anova tests. Finally, logistic regression was conducted to reveal the variables that contribute to the explanations of differences in per- ceived leadership style and job characteristics in state-owned and private enterprises. The findings are presented below. table 3 Pearson correlations among job characteristics and leadership style Variables jc1 jC2 jc3 jc4 jc5 jc6 LD1 .23** .52** .12** -.04 .12** -.04 LD2 .01 .20** .37** .18** .01 .10* ld3 .09* -.07 .02 .05 .09* -.28** Notes: jc1 - autonomy; jc2 - feedback from agents; jc3 - dealing with others; jc4 - task identity; jc5 - negative job characteristics; jc6 - feedback from job; ld1 - positive lead- ership; ld2 - performance management; ld3 - negative leadership; * p < .05; ** p < .01. N = 724. Findings Correlations between job characteristics and leadership are presented in table 3. Positive leadership is positively and significantly correlated with au- tonomy, feedback from agents, dealing with others, and task signifi- cance. Negative leadership is negatively and significantly correlated with feedback from job, and positively with autonomy, and task significance. Performance management is positively and significantly correlated with feedback from agents, dealing with others, task identity, and feedback from job. Table 4 presents anova for 3 factors obtained for the Leadership Style Model and 6 factors obtained for the Job Characteristics Model in the private and state-owned organizations. leadership style by ownership Performance management was significantly lower in private organiza- tions (m = -.02; sd = .75) than in state-owned enterprises (m = -.06; sd = 1.05). Negative leadership was significantly lower in state-owned enterprises (m = .05; sd = 1.00) than in private organizations (m = .18; sd = .75). Hence, two out of three factors measuring different constructs of leadership in this study were found to follow the hypothesis. Posi- tive leadership was not found to cause a distinction between private and state-owned enterprises. job characteristics by ownership Three out of 6 hypotheses tested for the relationship between job char- acteristics and ownership type (private versus state-owned) were con- firmed. Feedback from agents was significantly lower in private orga- nizations (m =-.15; sd = .98) than in state-owned enterprises (m =-.04; Corporate Ownership, Leadership and Job Charateristics 129 table 4 Leadership style and job characteristics: Comparison between private companies and state-owned enterprises Leadership style Private* State-owned** Mean sd Mean sd f Sig. ld1 positive leadership .05 1.02 -.01 1.00 .44 .51 ld2 performance management -.02 .75 .06 1.05 8.02 .00 ld3 negative leadership .18 •75 .05 1.00 6.03 .01 Job characteristics jc1 autonomy jc2 feedback from agents jc3 dealing with others jc4 task identity jc5 negative characteristics jc6 feedback from job Notes: * n = 158 ; ** n = 566; N = 724. sd = 1.00). Dealing with others was significantly lower in private orga- nizations (m =-.32; sd = .85) than in state-owned enterprises (m =-.09; sd = 1.02). Feedback from job was significantly lower in private organi- zations (m = -.14; sd = 1.00) than in state-owned enterprises (m = .04; sd = 1.00), thus hypotheses 3, 4, and 7 are corroborated. Hypotheses 2, 5, and 6, suggesting significant differences by sector, were not found to be significant, and were therefore not confirmed. Hypothesis 8 could not be tested. multivariate logistic regression In order to learn about the multivariate profile of being employed either in private or in state-owned enterprises a multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed employing 3 factors representing leadership style, 6 factors representing job characteristics, and the variable of the sample which differentiated between sample one and sample two. The results presented in table 5 demonstrate that two out of three lead- ership style factors show a significant difference by type of ownership. Additionally, state-owned enterprises are characterized by 3 out of 6 job characteristics that are significantly different from job characteristics in private enterprises. Specific results are described here. Performance management is positively and significantly correlated -.06 1.00 -.15 .98 -.32 .85 .02 .77 -.09 1.04 -.14 1.00 .02 1.00 -.04 1.00 -.09 1.02 -.00 1.06 .028 .99 .04 1.00 .62 .43 4.23 .04 19.99 .00 .11 .74 1.64 .20 3.38 .05 table 5 Logistic regression of private and state-owned enterprises on job characteristics and leadership style factors Variable b se Wald Sig Constant .57 .17 11.51 .00 Sample/Year 1.10 .22 24.15 .00 ld2 job evaluation .29 .12 6.08 .01 ld3 negative leadership -.31 .11 8.62 .00 jc2 feedback from agents -.38 .11 11.57 .00 jc3 dealing with others .43 .11 14.87 .00 jc5 task significance .21 .10 4.14 .04 Variables excluded from the equation: jci - autonomy; jc4 - task identity; jc6 - feed- back from job; ldi - positive leadership. N = 724. with employment in state-owned enterprises (b = .29; se = .12; wald test of significance = 6.08; Sig. = .01) Negative leadership is positively and significantly correlated with em- ployment in private organizations (b =-.31; se = .11; wald test of signif- icance = 8.62; Sig. = .01). Feedback from agents is positively and significantly correlated with employment in private organizations (b = -.38; se = .11; wald test of sig- nificance = 11.57; Sig. = .00). Dealing with others is positively and significantly correlated with em- ployment in state-owned enterprises (b = .43, se = .11; wald test of sig- nificance = 14.87; Sig. = .00). Task significance is positively and significantly correlated with em- ployment in state-owned enterprises (b = .21; se = .10; wald test of sig- nificance = 4.14; Sig. = .04) The model is significant (chi-square = 62.61, df= 6; Sig. = .00, -2 Log Likelihood = 583.95 and Goodness of Fit = 552.43). The overall prediction power is 75.25%. Discussion and Conclusions As Russia is moving from a centrally planned economy to a free mar- ket economy, its workers in the private and state-owned enterprises are changing the perceptions of their organizational leadership and jobs. A profile constructed of two elements of leadership style and three ele- ments of job characteristics may best predict that a change occurred in the perceptions of workers in private enterprises and not in state-owned companies. State-owned organizations are characterized by a leader- ship style that maximizes 'performance management' and minimizes 'negative leadership,' and job characteristics that include 'feedback from agents,' 'dealing with others' and 'task significance.' This profile could be regarded as part of the culture of the enterprises studied. Perceived negative organizational culture may spill over into employees' perceptions of their leadership and, among others, of their jobs. This major finding could be used by researchers and managers of transitional organizations. Researchers should aim to use holistic meth- ods in analyzing transitional organizations, methods that measure and control as many organizational variables as possible. Managers should aim to improve not only their leadership style but also job characteristics of their employees as part of their improvement of the culture of their organizations. While a profile of characteristics enables scholars and managers to look at the big picture, the study results could be used also to discuss each factor's potency in predicting the ownership system. The first hypothesis suggested that Russian workers employed in state- owned enterprises perceive their organizations' leadership more posi- tively than their counterparts in private companies. This hypothesis has been corroborated by two independent explanatory factors that have in- dicated differences in the perceptions of workers in private and state- owned enterprises. The first independent explanatory factor is perfor- mance management. This factor includes items on a leadership question- naire that refer to workers' jobs, such as understanding the standards for an effective job performance, existing job rules and/ or performance guidelines, and requirements by the organization to perform unethically. While in both private and state-owned enterprises there was a negative shift in this factor over the years, the changes in state-owned enterprises were much more significant. It seems that workers in state-owned enter- prises have changed the perceptions of their leadership to be less and less definitive and clear about the leadership expectations from the workers. The second independent explanatory factor that may explain differ- ences between workers' perceptions of their leaders in private and state- owned enterprises is the factor of negative leadership. It includes items such as employees who have a sense of control in the organization, man- agement that is hesitant in stating long-term goals, and leadership that takes a negative view of the world. This factor that was perceived to pre- vail in state-owned enterprises has improved in privately owned enter- prises. Employees in private companies see their organizations' leader- ship to be more negative and less orderly than their counterparts in state- owned enterprises. The second hypothesis suggested that Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more autonomy than their peers employed in private companies. This hypothesis has not been cor- roborated by the data and therefore it is rejected. Autonomy on the job could be an imperative of the nature of the job itself, which is mostly a result of the technology employed (Woodward 1958), rather than a con- sequence of the ownership type. The third hypothesis suggested that Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more feedback from job than their peers employed in private companies. Feedback from job could not explain differences between jobs in state-owned and private or- ganizations and therefore the third hypothesis has been rejected. Again, feedback from job may be a function of the technology used rather than the ownership's type of the organization. The fourth hypothesis has predicted that Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more feedback from agents than their peers employed in private companies. This independent fac- tor explained differences between jobs in state-owned and private en- terprises and therefore hypothesis four has been corroborated. Feedback from agents - includes feedback on job performance (the worker knows how well he or she is doing on his/her job), and supervisor's evaluation of job performance. While over the year workers in private enterprises have learned to ask and to receive this feedback, workers in state-owned enterprises have lost some of the same feedback. The first possible expla- nation is that in the private enterprises performance is strongly linked to rewards and therefore it is not surprising that, as the economy is shifting to a more competitive mode, managers and workers have focused on this issue. On the contrary, workers in state-owned enterprises, which tradi- tionally have not linked performance to rewards, just got confused over this issue in the face of the changing societal values. The second possible explanation is that facing weakening state-owned enterprises, managers actually could not provide workers with a good performance management since the managers themselves did not have the authority or the means to link employees' performance to their re- wards. The third possible explanation is that this finding may be a statement of self justification, as if workers in state-owned enterprises were trying to tell that job security in their companies is independent of the em- ployees' performance and is therefore preferable to a job in the private enterprises where non performance might lead to dismissal. The fifth hypothesis suggested that Russian workers in state-owned enterprises are perceived to deal with others more than their peers em- ployed in private companies. This hypothesis has been corroborated, as dealing with others has been found to be a significant explanatory factor of the differences between jobs in private and state-owned enterprises. Dealing with others includes items such as: cooperative work, working closely with other people, affecting other people by one's job, and the use of high level skills on the job. As workers in private enterprises perceived their jobs to include more and more elements referring to dealing with others, workers in state- owned enterprises seem to have lost some of these aspects over the years. The first possible explanation is that in private companies workers have been forced to work closely with each other to solve operational prob- lems while workers in state-owned enterprises continue to refer to their supervisors to make decisions for them, as used to be the tradition in the central planning economy, and therefore they do not have to cooperate in their work activities. A second possible explanation is that as private or- ganizations are improving their performance, workers have to take more and more responsibility, and hence they have to cooperate in their jobs. In state-owned enterprises, there are no incentives for taking responsibil- ity and therefore workers do not really care about the end results of their jobs and, hence, would not bother to cooperate to solve organizational or operational problems. The sixth hypothesis suggested that Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more task identity than their peers employed in private enterprises. This hypothesis has been rejected. Task identity is the extent to which the worker can see the end results of his/her job and it may be related to the nature of the final product/ service rather than to the organization's ownership type. The seventh hypothesis suggested that Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more task significance than their peers employed in private enterprises. Task significance encom- passes items such as: a job unimportant to other people, a simple and repetitive job, and a job that could be done by one person. While in pri- vate organizations the tendency to perceive a job as less significant has been reduced over the years, in state-owned enterprises it has increased. Since it is plausible to believe that workers in state-owned enterprises have changed very little of their job characteristics over one year, the change in their perceptions could be attributed more to the change in their attitudes towards their jobs rather than to a real job change. It is possible that as a result of the changing societal perceptions of organiza- tional efficiency and the private market shift in focus to high level skills jobs, workers in private organizations see their jobs to be more positive in general than workers in state-owned enterprises. The eighth hypothesis suggested that Russian workers employed in state-owned enterprises are perceived to enjoy more skills variety than their peers employed in private enterprises. The hypothesis could not be tested since the factor analysis procedure of the Job Characteristics Model has not yielded a skills variety factor. The study is not free of limitations. First, the survey results show that there are differences in some aspects of leadership and job characteristics between state-owned and private enterprises in Russia. The results do not indicate which factors cause the differences. Ownership may be one affecting factor, but not necessarily the definite one. Since the study did not control the samples as a comparable set, there are many other plau- sible factors contributing to the differences, such as a company's size or age. Second, the sample that is comprehensive and includes many orga- nizations is still quasi-random. Third, the sampling has been conducted in one city in Russia and may not be representative of other Russian places, after all Russia is a huge country with eleven time zones. Fourth, despite the careful translation of the questionnaire it is difficult to esti- mate its face value. Russian workers were not experienced in taking ques- tionnaires and they may have found the whole experience confusing and even threatening. Despite all these limitations, the study is unique in its investigation of organizational attitudes during a major economic and political transition. From current knowledge about the transition in Russia it may be pos- sible to infer that significant differences among workers could be better identified in organizations that vary in their size and age, represent vari- ous industries, and are located in certain regions of Russia, rather than in state-owned and private enterprises. Moreover, since Russian economic and political systems are still in transition it is possible that employees' attitudes that were measured a few years ago have changed again. It is therefore recommended to view this study's results as a snapshot that has the potential to explain current differences between state-owned and private enterprises in Russia, yet the application should be carefully done by testing those attitudes again. A replication of this study may refine the theories used to enable them to explain the relationship between job characteristics and leadership style. Local and foreign managers in Russia may realize that modern Russian state-owned and private enterprises do not resemble public and private sectors in the West. State-owned enterprises seem to be more stable and less diffused in their activities, probably as a consequence of seventy years of tradition. 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Our investigations reveal empirical evidence for the importance of volume data as an indicator of the flow of in- formation into the market. These results are in line with suggestions from the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis. By means of the Granger causality test, we establish causality from both stock returns and return volatility to trading volume. Our results indicate that series on trading activities have little additional explanatory power for subsequent price changes over that already contained in the price series. Key Words: abnormal stock returns, return volatility, abnormal trading volume, gArcH-cum-volume, causal relations jel Classification: c32, g14 1 Introduction Most empirical research about stock markets focuses on stock price movements over time. The stock price of a company reflects investors' expectations about the future prospects of the firm. New information Dr Henryk Gurgul is a Professor at the Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Science and Technology, Poland. Dr Pawel Majdosz is an Assistant at the Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Economics and Computer Science, Poland. Dr Roland Mestel is an Assistant at the Institute of Banking and Finance, University of Graz, Austria. The authors thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments and suggestions on a previous version of the paper. causes investors to change their expectations and is the main reason for stock price changes. However, the release of new information does not necessarily induce stock prices to move. One can imagine that investors may evaluate the news heterogeneously (as either good or bad). Think of a company that announces an increase in dividend payout. Investors may interpret this as a positive signal about the future performance of the company and raise their demand prices. On the other hand, investors interested in capital gains might wish to sell the stock on the basis of this informa- tion, rather than receive dividend payouts (e. g. due to tax reasons). On average, despite its importance to individual investors, such information does not noticeably affect prices. Another situation in which new infor- mation might leave stock prices unaltered can arise if investors interpret the news homogeneously but start with different prior expectations (e. g. due to asymmetrically distributed information). One can conclude that stock prices do not mirror the information content of news in all cases. On the other hand, a necessary condition for price movement is posi- tive trading volume. Trading volume can be treated as descriptive statis- tics, but may also be considered as an important source of information in the context of the future price and price volatility process. Prices and trading volume build a market information aggregate out of each new piece of information. Unlike stock price behaviour, which reflects the av- erage change in investors' beliefs due to the arrival of new information, trading volume reflects the sum of investors' reactions. Differences in the price reactions of investors are usually lost by averaging of prices, but they are preserved in trading volume. In this sense, the observation of trading volume is an important supplement of stock price behaviour. In 1989 Poland, and thereupon other Eastern European countries, started the transition process from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. There was no pre-existing economic theory of such a process to rely on. The early 1990s were extremely difficult for these countries. Stock quotations on the wse were launched on April 16,1991. This was the day of the re-establishment of the wse as the exclusive place of trading on the Polish stock market after a break of more than 50 years. Continuous trading started in 1996, but only the most liquid stocks were included in this system. Hence, an interesting question arises as to whether the initial difficulties of the Polish stock market have now been overcome, and whether the same mechanisms on the Polish stock market as in developed capital markets can be identified. To answer this question, we concentrate on the role of trading volume in the process that generates stock returns and return volatilities on the Polish stock market. Unlike most other studies on this issue, we use in- dividual stock data instead of index data. Our investigation covers not only contemporaneous but also dynamic (causal) relationships because we are mainly interested in whether trading volume can be regarded as a prognosis of stock return levels and/or return volatilities. One important difference distinguishing this study from contributions in the existing lit- erature is methodological. We do not use simple return and volume data but replace these two variables with abnormal stock returns and abnor- mal trading volume. To obtain these variables, we first calculate normal (expected) returns and trading volume and then compute abnormal re- alizations as the difference between the actual ex-post observations and those expected from the model. Note that such a variable can be regarded as a measure of the unexpected part of a given realization. Our computations show that, on average, there is almost no relation- ship between abnormal stock returns and excess trading volume in ei- ther direction. It follows that knowledge of trading volume cannot im- prove short-run return forecasts and vice versa. On the other hand, our data support the hypothesis of a positive contemporaneous as well as causal relationship between return volatility and trading volume. We find that these results are mostly independent of the direction of stock price changes. Finally, our models show that return volatility in many cases precedes trading volume. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 contains a brief overview of the existing literature on the relationship between stock prices and trading volume. Section 3 describes our data, reports prelimi- nary results, and also gives a detailed description of the applied method- ology to obtain abnormal return and excess volume outcomes. Section 4 is dedicated to the tests used to check the contemporaneous relationship between stock returns, return volatility and trading volume. Section 5 ex- tends our analysis to the examination of dynamic (causal) relationships. Section 6 concludes and provides suggestions for further research. 2 Existing Literature An early work dedicated to the role of trading volume in the price gen- erating process is that by Clark (1973). He developed the well known Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (mdh). This hypothesis argue that stock returns are generated by a mixture of distributions. Clark states that stock returns and trading volume are related due to the common dependence on a latent information flow variable. According to Clark, the more information arrives on the market within a given time interval, the more strongly stock prices tend to change. The author advises the use of volume data as a proxy for the stochastic (information) process. From the mdh assumption it follows that there are strong positive contem- poraneous but no causal linkages between trading volume and return volatility data. Under the assumptions of the mdh model, innovations in the information process lead to momentum in stock return volatil- ity. At the same time, return levels and volume data exhibit no common patterns. The theoretical framework developed by Clark has been gener- alized among others by Epps and Epps (1976), Tauchen and Pitts (1983), Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990), and Andersen (1996). An important model explaining the arrival of information on a mar- ket is the sequential information flow model introduced by Copeland (1976). It implies that news is revealed to investors sequentially rather than simultaneously. This causes a sequence of transitional price equilib- rium which is accompanied by a persistently high trading volume. The most important conclusion from this model is that there exist positive contemporaneous and causal relationships between price volatility and trading activities. In a framework which assumes stochastic fluctuations of stock prices, recent studies, e. g. by Blume et al. (1994) and Suominen (2001) state that data concerning trading volume deliver unique information to market participants; information which is not available from prices. Blume et al. argues that informed traders transmit their private information to the market through their trading activities. Uninformed traders can draw conclusions about the reliability of informational signals from volume data. Therefore, return volatility and trading volume show time persis- tence even in a case where the arrival of information does not show it. As do Blume et al., Suominen (2001) applies a market microstructure model in which trading volume is used as a signal to the market by unin- formed traders and can help to reduce information asymmetries. These two studies argue that trading volume describes market behaviour and influences market participants' decisions. Both authors suggest strong relationships, not only contemporaneous but also causal, between vol- ume and return volatility. These theoretical contributions have been accompanied by a number of empirical studies which deal with volume-price relationships on cap- ital markets. The most important findings are those by Karpoff (1987), Hiemstra and Jones (1994), Brailsford (1996) and Lee and Rui (2002). The cited authors mainly use index data. Although these studies differ sig- nificantly with respect to sample data and applied methodologies, they convey empirical evidence of the existence of a positive volume-to-price relationship. The interdependencies between stock return volatility and trading vol- ume have been the subject of investigation by Karpoff (1987), Bessem- binder and Seguin (1993), Brock and LeBaron (1996), Avouyi-Dovi and Jondeau (2000), and Lee and Rui (2002). All these studies give evidence of a strong relationship (contemporaneous as well as dynamic) between return volatility and trading volume. In contrast to these authors, Darrat et al. (2003), using intraday data from djia stocks find evidence of signif- icant lead and lag relations only. They do not report a contemporaneous correlation between return volatility and trading volume. Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were the first to apply stochastic time series models of conditional heteroscedasticity (GARcH-type) in the con- text of price-volume investigations. They analyzed the contemporaneous relationship between volatility and volume. They found that the per- sistence of stock return variance vanishes when trading volume is in- cluded in the conditional variance equation. Considering that trading volume is a proxy for the flow of information into the market, this result supports the mdh. A paper by Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) gives general proof of the fact that trading volume and return volatility are driven by the same factors. They do not, however, answer the question on the identity of these factors. Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1994), Andersen (1996), Brailsford (1996), and Omran and McKenzie (2000) expanded this GARcH-cum-volume approach. 3 The Data and Preliminary Results Our data set consists of daily stock price and trading volume series for all companies listed in the wig20 on April 29, 2005. The wig20 reflects the performance of the twenty most liquid Polish companies in terms of free float market capitalization. Our time series are derived from the database of parkiet. The investigation covers the period from January 1995 to April 2005. An appendix at the end of the paper contains a list of all companies included in the sample as well as their period of quo- tation. We use continuously compounded stock returns calculated from daily stock prices at close, adjusted for dividend payouts and stock splits. As a proxy for return volatility we employ the squared values of daily stock returns. We repeated all computations using absolute instead of squared stock returns and find that the use of this alternative measure for stock return volatility delivers almost the same results. To measure trading volume the daily number of shares traded is being used. descriptive statistics We start with some basic descriptive analysis of the time series of stock returns and trading volume. As can be seen from panel a of table 1, the average daily stock return over the period under study ranges from - 0.28% (Netia) to 0.12% (bre) with a median of-0.05%. Standard devi- ation is the lowest for pkn (1.85%) and the highest for Netia (4.45%). The commonly reported fact of fat-tailed and highly-peaked return distributions is being supported by most of our series. The median of stock return kurtosis is 6.88 and ranges from 34.98 (sfc) to 3.9 (pkn). Return skewness is the highest for Netia (0.92) and the lowest for sfc (-1.8) with a median of 0.19. By applying Jarque-Bera and chi-square goodness-of-fit tests for normality, we additionally find strong support for the hypothesis that our return series do not come from a normal dis- tribution. Concerning autocorrelation properties, the Ljung-Box Q-test statistics for the 15th order autocorrelation provide evidence of signifi- cant low-order autocorrelation in about 50% of all cases. Unlike stock returns, both return volatility and trading volume com- monly display strong persistence in their time series. By means of Ljung- Box Q (15)-statistics we find strong support for the hypothesis that trad- ing volume exhibits serial autocorrelation. Consistent with the stylized facts of volume series listed by Andersen (1996), our volume data exhibit a high degree of non-normality, expressed by their considerable kurtosis and their being skewed to the right (see panel c of table 1). As a proxy for return volatility we use the squared values of daily stock returns. These time series display the usual time dependency of stock returns in the second order moment (volatility persistence) implying, among other things, that returns cannot be assumed to be i. i. d. As for trading volume, the null hypothesis of squared returns coming from a normal distribution is strongly rejected (panel b in table 1). ABNORMAL RETURNS AND ABNORMAL TRADING vOLUME One point that is essential in distinguishing our study from other contri- butions is that we focus on interactions between abnormal stock returns table 1 Aggregated summary statistics for stock market data of wiG20 companies Mean ■ 103 Std. dev. ■ 103 Skewness Kurtosis Panel a: Daily stock returns Min -2.81 18.50 -1.80 3.90 1st Quartile 0.10 24.85 -0.07 6.50 Median 0.52 26.33 0.19 6.88 3rd Quartile 0.73 32.00 0.27 8.78 Max 1.15 44-49 0.92 34-98 Panel b: Daily squared stock returns Min 0.34 0.59 3.89 22.83 1st Quartile 0.62 1.47 5.83 49.55 Median 0.69 1.93 7.18 77.15 3rd Quartile 1.03 2.69 8.53 120.20 Max 1.99 7-83 35-35 1 435.61 Panel c: Daily trading volume Min 9.80 16.42 1.66 7.82 1st Quartile 28.57 41.03 2.98 17.24 Median 70.10 73.98 4.11 29.22 3rd Quartile 231.53 314.82 7.40 119.33 Max 1337-54 1286.82 34-97 1359-58 and abnormal trading volume, instead of simple return and volume data. Since we concentrate on individual companies, instead of index data, our goal is to establish unique firm-specific relationships, i. e. we filter out systematic price and volume effects. For each trading day t we compute the abnormal return ARit for company i as the difference between the actual ex-post return and the security's normal (expected) return. For- mally we have AR1>t = Ri,t - E [R1>tIVj] (1) where R,t stands for the actual return of firm i on day t and ERt |It-1] stands for the predicted (normal) return conditional on the information set It-1. To model risk-adjusted expected returns ERt|It-1] we use the Market Model approach, which relates a security's return to the return of the market. The latter is approximated in our study by the log-returns of the wig, which comprises the majority of firms listed on the primary market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. For each day the relevant model parameters are estimated by means of an ols method. The estimation window comprises 100 trading days prior to that date. Since our analysis starts on January 2,1995, this implies that the first realisation of abnormal stock returns for each company can be observed for the 101st trading day in 1995. Abnormal trading volume is computed in a similar way. To isolate information-related trading activity, we follow Tkac (1999) who found that market-wide trading is also an important component of the trad- ing activity of individual firms, and that it should be taken into account when modeling volume time series. However, the application of a 'Vol- ume Market Model' proposed in Ajinkya and Jain (1989) generates many statistical problems. We find that the resulting abnormal volume series mostly depart from the underlying model assumptions. This leads to biased inferences. Taking this into account, we follow, among others, Beneish and Whaley (1996) by using firm-specific average volume data as a benchmark for normal trading volume. As was the case with the estimation window for the return parameters in the Market Model, the estimation window for the mean firm-specific volume also covers 100 trading days. testing for unit root Testing for causal relationships between trading volume and stock price data can be sensitive to non-stationarities. Therefore, we check whether the time series of stock returns and trading volume can be assumed to be stationary by using the augmented Dickey-Fuller (adf) test. This is necessary to avoid model misspecifications and biased inferences. The adf test is based on the regression: where yt stands for stock return or trading volume on day t, ß, 7 and 6 are model parameters, and st represents a white noise variable. The unit root test is carried out by testing the null hypothesis of a unit root in the stochastic process generating yt(7 = 0) against the one-sided alternative 7 < 0. We conduct adf tests for each company's time series of stock returns. We find the parameter 7 to be negative and statistically significant at rea- sonable levels in all cases. The same is true for the time series of trading p (2) table 2 Cross-correlation coefficients between abnormal stock returns (AR), abnormal return volatility (AR2) and abnormal trading volume (AV) j = -2 j = -1 j = 0 j = 1 j = 2 Panel a: Corr(ARt,AVH) Min -0.02 1st Quartile 0.03 Median 0.04 3rd Quartile 0.07 Max 0.13 Panel b: Corr(AR2t, AVt-j) Min -0.10 -0.06 -0.07 -0.08 -0.13 1st Quartile 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.03 0.01 Median 0.08 0.15 0.17 0.07 0.04 3rd Quartile 0.11 0.20 0.20 0.10 0.07 Max 0.17 0.30 0.32 0.14 0.13 -0.01 0.04 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.18 0.16 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.04 volume. Hence we come to the conclusion that both time series of stock returns and trading volume can be assumed to be invariant with respect to time. cross-correlation analysis At the beginning of our investigation of interactions between abnor- mal stock return and abnormal trading volume data we calculate simple cross-correlation coefficients Corr for all companies: rAi? AVI Cov[ARt,AVt] . . Corr\ARt,AVt1 =-, (3) SD[ARt] ■ SD[AVt] where ARt (AVt) denotes abnormal stock return (abnormal trading vol- ume) on day t, Cov stands for covariance and SD is standard deviation. From panel a of table 2 we see that there is no direct contemporaneous correlation between abnormal stock return levels and excess trading vol- ume. The same results are obtained when one computes Corr between AR and lagged (leading) data of AV. On the other hand, panel b of table 2 shows a positive contempora- neous correlation between abnormal trading volume and abnormal re- turn volatility. From this observation it follows that, due to its impact on return volatility, trading volume might indirectly contain information about stock price behaviour. We also find an asymmetry in the cross correlation between squared AR and AV around zero. In all cases, Corr[AR2t, AVt-j ] is greater for j = -1 than for j = 1. This fact is in line with the widespread expectation that trading volume is, at least partly, induced by heavy price fluctuations. 4 Contemporaneous Relationship stock RETURNS AND TRADING vOLUME In this section we test the contemporaneous relationship between ab- normal stock returns and excess trading volume. We use a multivariate simultaneous equation model proposed by Lee and Rui (2002), which is defined by the two equations: ARt = ao + aiAVt + atARt-i + eu; AV t = ßo + ßiARt + ßt AV t-i + ß3AVt-t + e%t. (4) We assume st to be white noise. One has to take into account that the jointly determined endogenous variables in each equation are not independent of the disturbances. This is important in respect to the esti- mation process. To take this possible dependence into account, we apply Full-Information Maximum Likelihood (fiml) methodology. fiml gen- erates asymptotically efficient estimators. An additional advantage is that the cross-equation correlations of the error terms are taken into account (see e. g. Davidson and MacKinnon 2003). The significance of all coeffi- cients in models (4), (5) and (6) (see below), is proved by means of the t-Student test (t-ratio coefficients). The findings are in line with our expectations of almost no essential contemporaneous relationship between abnormal stock returns and ex- cess trading volume. Across the whole sample, the parameters a1 and ß1 in (4) turn out to be statistically significant in only 4 cases. Since the ma- jority of our abnormal return series exhibit no serial correlation, we find parameter at to be significant in only 6 cases. Time dependence in the trading volume time series is supported by the highly significant values found for parameters ßt (16 cases) and ß3 (11 cases). As one would expect, the sign of these coefficients is positive in all but two cases, implying positive autocorrelation in volume data. Even though we find abnormal stock return levels and trading volume to be mutually independent, this does not mean that no relationships can be found in these market data at all. Several authors report that price fluctuations tend to increase in face of high trading volume. Therefore, a relation might exist between higher order moments of excess stock re- turns and trading volume. In addition, we check whether this volatility-volume relationship is the same irrespective of the direction of the price change, or whether trading volume is predominantly accompanied by either a large rise or a large fall in stock prices. We test this by using a bivariate regression model, given by the following equation: AV t = ao + (piAV t-i + (piAV— + aiAR2t + a2DtAR2t + et. (5) In model (5), Dt denotes a dummy variable that equals 1 if the cor- responding abnormal return ARt is negative, and 0 otherwise. The esti- mator of parameter a1 measures the relation between abnormal return volatility and excess trading volume, irrespective of the direction of the price change. The estimator of a2, however, reflects the degree of asym- metry in this relationship. To avoid the problem of serially correlated residuals, we include lagged values of AV up to lag 2. After this, we find the error term st in equation (5) to be largely serially uncorrelated. By means of the ml method we estimate equation (5). According to our computations, the estimate of parameter is significant in 17 cases and the estimate of parameter 02 is significant in 15 cases. We also estab- lish that parameter a1 is positive and significant for all but 2 companies. This is in line with our earlier hypothesis of a strong contemporaneous relationship between squared AR and AV. The estimate of parameter a2 is significant in 13 cases and negative in all of these. We find that for our sample of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, strong price changes are always accompanied by an increase in trading volume, irrespective of the direc- tion of price fluctuations. trading volume and volatility The stochastic process of stock returns is given by means of an aug- mented Market Model with an autoregressive term of order 1 in the conditional mean equation below. The conditional variance is captured by an adapted gjr-garch(1,1) model (Glosten et al. 1993). In this ver- sion, trading volume is included as an additional predetermined regres- sor. The gjr model captures the asymmetric (leverage) effect discovered by Black (1976), which states that bad information, reflected in an un- expected decrease in prices, causes volatility to increase more than good news. Engle and Ng (1993) supplied a theoretical and empirical support and stated that, among alternative models of time-varying volatility, the gjr model is the best at efficiently capturing this effect. The model is represented by the following two equations: Rt = ao + aiRt-i + a2Rm,t + et, et ~ (0, o-2t); a2t = ht = ßo + ßi ht-i + ßt et-i + ßa S--i«2-i + jVt. (6) Here et is assumed to be distributed as t-Student with v degrees of freedom conditional on the set of information available at t -1; ot repre- sents the conditional variance of et; and S-_ i is a dummy variable, which takes the value of i in the case of the innovation et-i being positive and 0 otherwise. Model (6) rests upon the assumption that trading volume is a proxy for the flow of information into the market: if return volatility is in fact mostly influenced by the information flow, the effect of volatil- ity clustering should decrease if one incorporates trading volume in the conditional variance equation. In (6) the sum of parameters ßi and ß2 reflects the persistence in the variance of the unexpected return et, tak- ing values between 0 and i. The closer this sum is to unity, the greater the persistence of shocks to volatility (volatility clustering). The estimate of parameter ß3 accounts for potential asymmetries in the relationship between return innovation and volatility. We apply a t-Student distribution for the return innovations et be- cause we find this to fit our turnover ratio series best. Thus, we use the conditional t-Student distribution for which the normal is a special case (v > 30). For model (6), a likelihood function L is defined as: 'v + i\ , „/v) ■{^(IliJ-lnT^-IlnW^)] it t=i ln(<7?) + (l + v)ln(l + -!-^ v - 2 ot (7) t where T denotes the sample size and T(.) denotes the gamma function. The model parameters are estimated by means of the ml method. As a first step, we estimate the parameters of model (6) assuming that y is equal to 0 (restricted variance equation, see table 3). We find that the estimate of parameter ßi as well as the estimate of parameter ß2 is signif- icant in nearly all cases. For 14 companies, the observed sum (ßi + ß2) lies within the range [0. 9 - i]. The average is 0.93, which indicates high per- sistence in conditional volatility. In most cases, ß3 is positive, but turns out to be statistically significant for one company only. This indicates that the asymmetric reaction of conditional variance to return innova- tions is rather modest in our data. In the next step we are interested in the unrestricted equation for conditional variance. We find parameter 7 table 3 Persistence in conditional stock return volatility [restricted versus unrestricted version of model (6)] Symbol (ßl +ßlf Cßl +ßi)h Symbol (ßl +ßl)a (ßl +ß2t AGO 0.93 0.08 KT Y 1.00 0.03 bph 0.98 0.97 NET 1.00 0.88 BRE 0.95 0.13 ORB 0.97 0.21 Bzw 0.81 0.90 PEO 0.87 0.91 cpl 0.99 0.08 PKM 0.96 0.06 cST 0.75 0.41 PKN 0.96 0.89 dbc 0.70 0.11 SFT 0.91 0.04 FSc 0.96 0.37 stx 0.96 0.89 KGH 0.98 0.89 TPS 0.98 O.83 Average O.93 0.48 to be positive and highly significant across the whole sample. Our data show a considerable decrease in the persistence of volatility when trad- ing volume is included in (6). The sum of parameters ß1 and ßt declines for almost all companies. The mean falls from 0.93 to 0.48. The esti- mate of parameter ßt shows a significant drop. In the unrestricted form it becomes, for the most part, insignificant. Table 3 gives the degree of persistence in variance, measured by the sum (ß1 + ßt) for the restricted and unrestricted form of (6). Results are shown for all stocks under con- sideration. It cannot be derived from our data that trading volume is the true source of persistence in volatility. Empirical results support the conjec- ture that trading volume might itself be partly determined by return volatility, causing a simultaneity bias in the coefficient estimates. To solve this simultaneity problem we re-run model (6) substituting Vt-1 for Vt. In line with Gallo and Pacini (2000), we find that volatility persistence under this approach remains almost the same as in the restricted version of (6). It can be concluded that contemporaneous trading volume is a sufficient statistic for the history of return volatility. Despite this, our re- sults can only partly be interpreted as an indication that the mdh holds true. 5 Dynamic Relationship Up to this point, our investigations focused exclusively on contempo- raneous relationships between trading volume and stock returns, and trading volume and return volatility. The following part of the paper studies dynamic (causal) interactions between these variables. Testing for causality is important because it permits a better understanding of the dynamics of stock markets, and may also have implications for other markets. From section 3 we get a hint that it is probable that causality is present in the relationship between return volatility and trading volume. This hypothesis can be proved by means of the Granger causality test (Granger 1969). A variable Y is said not to Granger-cause a variable X if the dis- tribution of X, conditional on past values of X alone, equals the distri- bution of X, conditional on past realizations of both X and Y. If this equality does not hold, Y is said to Granger-cause X. This is denoted by Y — X. Granger causality does not mean that Y causes X in the more common sense of the term, but only indicates that Y precedes X. In the case of the feedback relationship (i. e. X Granger-causes Y and vice versa) this relation is written as Y ^ X. As a test of Granger causality, we apply a bivariate vector autoregres- sion (var) of the form: ARt = jU1 + J] auARt-t + ^ßuAV - + , £1,t; i=1 i=1 pp AV t = ß2 + 2 ®2,iAV t-i + ^ ßl,iARt-t + S2,t. (8) i=1 i=1 Model (8) is estimated using an ols method. In order to choose an appropriate autoregressive lag length p of the var, we apply the Akaike information criterion (aic). Based on this measure of goodness-of-fit, we establish the proper lag length p to be equal to 2 for all companies. In terms of the Granger causality concept, it is said that AR (AV) does not Granger-cause AV (AR) if the coefficients ßi (i = 1,...,p) in (8), respectively, are not significant, i. e. the null hypothesis H0: ß1 = ß2 = . . . = ßp = 0 cannot be rejected. To test the null, we calculate the F-statistic: ^ SSEo - SSE N - 2p - 1 F =---. (9) SSE p In (9) SSE0 denotes the sum of squared residuals of the regression model constrained by ßi = 0 (i = 1,...,p), SSE is the sum of squared residuals of the unrestricted equation, and N stands for the number of observations. The statistic (9) is asymptotically F distributed under the table 4 Number of rejected null hypotheses based on the Granger causality test Panel a: Causality between excess trading volume and abnormal stock returns AR AV AV ^ AR AR AV Sample size: 18 companies 11 0 1 Panel b: Causality between excess trading volume and squared abnormal stock returns AR2 AV AV ^ AR2 AR2 AV Sample size: 18 companies 813 Level of significance is 5%. Order p in (8) is equal to 2. non-causality assumption, with p degrees of freedom in the numerator and (N - 2p - 1) degrees of freedom in the denominator. Concentrating on the rejection of the null hypothesis of Granger non- causality, panel a of table 4 demonstrates that abnormal returns (excess trading volume) precede excess trading volume (abnormal returns) in 11 (0) cases. Both numbers reflect exclusively unidirectional causalities. Only in one case a two-way causality (feedback relation) is detected. To conclude, short-run forecasts of current or future stock returns in gen- eral cannot be improved by the knowledge of recent trading volume data. The observation that stock returns precede trading volume in approxi- mately half of all cases is in line with similar findings by Glaser and Weber (2004) and confirms predictions from overconfidence models. To sum- marize, we find only weak evidence of causality between abnormal stock returns and excess trading volume, especially causality running from trading volume to stock returns. This is in line with our expectations. To evaluate dynamic relationships between stock return volatility and trading volume, we substitute the abnormal return level for the squared values of abnormal stock returns, and re-estimate the model (8). Panel b of table 4 confirms the existence of causal relationships from AR2 to AV. In 10 cases, AR2 precedes AV, whereas in only 1 case does Granger causality run from AV to AR2. This result is again in line with our earlier finding that stock price changes in any direction have information con- tent for upcoming trading activities. The preceding return volatility can also be seen as some evidence that the arrival of new information might follow a sequential rather than a simultaneous process. Our results indicate that data on trading activity have only little addi- tional explanatory power for subsequent price changes that is indepen- dent of the price series. In this sense, our empirical results for the Polish stock market does not overall corroborate theoretical suggestions made by Blume et al. (1994) and more recently by Suominen (2001). 154 Henryk Gurgul, Pawel Majdosz, and Roland Mestel 6 Conclusions Our paper presents a joint dynamics study of daily trading volume and stock returns for Polish companies listed in the wiG20. We test whether volume data provide only a description of trading activities or whether they convey unique information that can be exploited for modeling stock returns or return volatilities. These relationships are investigated by the use of abnormal stock return and excess trading volume data. Our re- sults give no evidence of a contemporaneous relationship between mar- ket adjusted stock returns and mean adjusted trading volume. The lin- ear Granger causality test of dynamic relationships between these data does not indicate substantial causality. We can conclude that short-run forecasts of current or future stock returns cannot be improved by the knowledge of recent volume data and vice versa. This finding is in line with the efficient capital market hypothesis. However, the Polish data show extensive interactions between trading volume and stock price fluc- appendix a Companies included in the sample, symbol legend and period of quotation* PLPKN0000018 20 April 1999 - 29 April 1999 PLPEKA000016 7 February 1995 - 29 April 2005 PLTLKPL00017 2 January 1995 - 29 April 2005 PLKGHM000017 2 January 1995 - 29 April 2005 PLBPH0000019 27 October 1995 - 29 April 2005 PLAG0RA00067 25 May 1998 - 29 April 2005 plbz00000044 2 January 1995 - 29 April 2005 PLPR0KM00013 22 April 1997 - 17 February 2005 PLNETiA00014 10 July 1997 - 29 April 2005 PLBRE0000012 30 January 1996 - 29 April 2005 PLSTLEx00019 11 July 2000 - 29 April 2005 PLKETY000011 20 November 1997 - 29 April 2005 PL0RBiS00014 30 June 1998 - 29 April 2005 PLS0FTB00016 10 February 1998 - 29 April 2005 PLcMPLD00016 26 November 1999 - 29 April 2005 PLcRSNT00011 2 June 1998 - 29 April 2005 plcelza00018 2 January 1995 - 29 April 2005 PLDEBcA00016 18 November 1998 - 29 April 2005 * In the case of two firms included in the wig20, data series have been too short. tuations. We find that squared abnormal stock returns and excess trad- ing volume are contemporaneously related. This implies that both time series might be driven by the same underlying process. In contrast to Brailsford (1996), our findings provide evidence that for the Polish stock market this volatility-volume relationship is independent of the direc- tion of the observed price change. We apply our investigations to a con- ditional asymmetric volatility framework in which trading volume serves as a proxy for the rate of information arrival on the market. The results to some extent support suggestions of the Mixture of Distribution Hy- pothesis, i.e. that arch is a manifestation of daily time dependence in the rate of new information arrival. We also detect dynamic relationships between return volatility and trading volume data. References Ajinkya, B. B., and P. C. Jain. 1989. The behavior of daily stock market trading volume. Journal of Accounting and Economics 11:331-59. Andersen, T. 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A trading volume benchmark: Theory and evidence. Jour- nal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 34:89-114. Human Capital and Economic Growth by Municipalities in Slovenia Matjaž Novak Štefan Bojnec This article presents the analysis of the nature of economic growth of the Slovenian economy at the aggregate level and at the level of Slovenian municipalities for the period 1996-2002. The aggregate cross- sectoral time series dataset and the regional cross-sectional time series dataset are used to econometrically test the significance of labour real- location between sectors and municipalities on the nature of economic growth of the Slovenian economy. For this purpose we compare esti- mates of average and marginal stochastic frontier production functions. The estimated parameters of these two groups of production functions clearly indicate an inefficient use of human capital in the Slovenian economy during the analysed period. The uncompleted process of sec- toral labour reallocation is found as the main factor that has a negative impact on the growth of total factor productivity in the Slovenian econ- omy. Key Words: economic growth, sectoral reallocation of labour, total factor productivity, stochastic frontier model jel Classification: o15, ö40 Introduction Previous studies of the economic performance and growth of the Slove- nian economy during the transition from a socialist to a market economy raise an interesting theoretical and empirical question regarding the role of human capital in these processes. Orazem and Vodopivec (1995) de- scribed winner and loser associations through prevalence of winners' re- turns to education and to a lesser extent to experience. Bojnec and Kon- ings (1999) conducted an analysis on the magnitude and dynamics of job Matjaž Novak is an Assistant Lecturer at the Faculty of Management Koper, University of Primorska, Slovenia. Dr Štefan Bojnec is Associate Professor at the Faculty of Management Koper, University of Primorska, Slovenia. This paper is based on a presentation originally given at the 5th International Conference of the Faculty of Management Koper in Portorož, Slovenia, 18-20 November 2004. creation and job destruction at the micro-level using a sample of Slove- nian firms and compared the results with some other transition coun- tries. Bojnec et al. (2003) found that human capital plays a crucial role in the intersectoral labour mobility among agriculture, industry and ser- vices. Bojnec (2003) found that regional location with associated eco- nomic and human capital structures is an important factor that causes differences in the level of economic development by statistical regions in Slovenia. Novak (2004) found a significant contribution of human cap- ital to the aggregate economic growth in Slovenia, but with a negative influence of human capital on the growth of total factor productivity. In this article we present the analysis of the nature of economic growth of the Slovenian economy at the aggregate level and at the level of Slove- nian municipalities for the period 1996-2002. The research was con- ducted on the basis of the aggregate cross-sectoral time series data. Ad- ditionally, we test the significance of labour reallocation on the nature of economic growth of the Slovenian economy using the regional cross- sectional time series data. The in-depth analysis at the municipality level was necessary to obtain a sufficient number of observations for testing statistical-significance of the parameters associated with labour realloca- tion. For the period 1996-2002, each time series dataset offers only 7 ob- servations. The disaggregated dataset offers observations for each anal- ysed variable by 174 Slovenian municipalities. This provides an appropri- ate database for robust statistical estimations. The disaggregated dataset by municipalities enables us to investigate the characteristics of the eco- nomic growth in Slovenia during the second stage of transition. For this purpose we use the stochastic frontier production function and the aver- age production function framework. We draw the following conclusions: first, human capital brings an im- portant contribution to the aggregate growth; second, the uncompleted process of sectoral labour reallocation is found as the main factor that limits the contribution of human capital to the growth of total factor productivity in the Slovenian economy; third, the comparison between the estimated parameters of the stochastic frontier production function and the average production function clearly indicates an inefficient use of human capital in the Slovenian economy. The following section briefly introduces a theoretical background of the role of human capital in economic growth. We then present the methodology used for analysing the role of human capital to the nature of economic growth in Slovenia between the years 1996 and 2002. The final section concludes with the main findings. Theoretical Background on the Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth Human capital is defined as a factor of economic growth, which cap- tures the abilities, skills and knowledge of workers (Romer 1994). It plays a dual role in the process of economic growth. First, it is a factor of production, and second, it is a source of innovation (Mincer, 1989, 1). The human capital literature is dichotomised between two basic frame- works: that of Becker (1964) and that of Lucas (1988). They emphasize human capital as an alternative source of sustained growth (similar to the technological progress). Second, there is Schumpeter's growth literature, which is based on the work of Nelson and Phelps (1966). This stream of literature highlights the importance of human capital stock (and not its accumulation) for economic growth. Regardless of which theoretical framework is used, human capital can be regarded as a production factor and can be simply built into the model of economic growth. The most popular in empirical literature on human capital and economic growth in advanced market economies are growth regressions proposed by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995), empirical anal- ysis conducted by Mankiw et al. (1992), and researches by Benhabin and Spiegel (1994). There exists also a body of literature and empirical anal- ysis on the role of human capital in transition countries. Conventional wisdom holds that transition countries are well endowed with human capital, which is consistent with the main findings by Barro and Lee (2001). They emphasised that most human capital indicators are better placed in transition countries than in oecd countries, but on the con- trary Boeri (2000) argued that the skills acquired in transition economies are over specialised, lowering labour force mobility across industries and consequently impeding economic progress. The worker's mobility across industries plays a crucial role in former transition economies. The resource allocation during the old system was not based on market principles. Under different distortions and redis- tributions, the great majority of workers were employed in state-owned enterprises. When the transition process began, the market forces were allowed to determine the economic activity. With economic liberalisa- tion and deregulation of economic activities structural adjustment poli- cies were introduced that induced structural changes and adjustments. Different capital structures have moved from less productive industries towards more productive ones. As we present further, labour force ad- justments in Slovenia seem to be slow, thus reducing the speed of pro- ductivity growth. As long as a predominant proportion of workers are employed in less productive industries and not in more productive ones, the aggregate growth of productivity will stay below the level that hinders the economic development. Since the productivity growth is a crucial factor of international com- petitiveness, the hypothesis that sectoral reallocation of labour force in transition economies is the key factor of progress and economic growth, is plausible. We limit our empirical analysis to the Slovenian economy. Methodological Framework For estimating the impact of labour force movements between industries the McCombie's (1980) methodological framework and, alternatively, the econometric estimation approach of elasticity coefficients are the most commonly used frameworks. mccombie's decomposition method McCombie (1980,104-106) developed an original framework for quan- tifying the impact of sectoral reallocation of workers from low towards high productivity industries on the growth of total factor productivity. The starting point of McCombie's decomposition method is the calcula- tion of the average labour productivity growth rate at the aggregate level: where p denotes the growth rate coefficient of labour productivity, PT denotes the aggregate level of labour productivity in the terminal year, Po denotes the aggregate level of labour productivity in the base year, while T denotes the terminal year. The level of labour productivity at time t for the whole economy is calculated as: where P, Q, E are the levels of labour productivity, output and employ- ment, i denotes the industry and a denotes the share of industry is employment in total employment. From definition (2) it follows that the aggregate productivity depends on two different factors. First, on (1) (2) the industry's specific productivity of labour, and second, on the num- ber of workers employed in each industry. Hence the growth of the employment-share in industries with a higher productivity level will raise the aggregate productivity, and vice versa will lower it in industries with a lower productivity level. The labour movement between indus- tries is only one factor that influences the aggregate productivity. This impact, according to McCombie (1980), is described as the structural component. The impact of all other factors is described as the standard- ized component. The evaluation of these two components derives from expression (1). Taking the natural logarithm of (1) and considering (2) we get: ln(p) = In I ln ^ Pi,T • ai,T i=i ln ^ Pi,0 • a,0 . i=i (3) For estimating the standardized component of the aggregate produc- tivity growth we extract from (3) the impact of the structural changes and introduce the assumption ai,0 = Ui>T: ln ^ Pi,T • ai,0 i=i = p*, (4) - ln ^ Pi,0 • ai,0 i=i where p* denotes the standardized component of the aggregate labour productivity. If we subtract the standardized component of the aggregate produc- tivity (4) from the aggregate productivity (3), we obtain the structural component (5) as follows: ln ^ Pi,T • ai,T i=i ln ^ Pi,0 • at,0 i=i ln ^ Pi,T • ai,0 i=i ln ^ Pi,0 • at,0 i=i ln ^ Pi,T • ai,T i=i ln ^ Pi,0 • at,0 i=i ln ^ Pi,T • ai,0 i=i + ln ^ Pi,0 • ai,0 i=i n n n n n ln 1=i ^ i,T • ai,T ln ^ Pi,T • aio 1=i = p**, (5) where p** denotes the structural component of the aggregate productiv- ity growth. econometric framework Within an econometric approach, the estimates of the elasticity model are commonly used for measuring the impact of structural adjustment processes on the growth of separate economic variables. More specifi- cally, we are trying to quantify the extent of labour movements from less productive industries towards more productive ones and their impacts on the growth of aggregate productivity in order to investigate the mag- nitude of a 1% increase in these movements. Novak (2004) developed a convenient framework for conducting this kind of analysis. His frame- work contains three separate parts: first, the correlation analysis; second, the estimation of a logit model; and third, the estimation of the elasticity model. The basic idea is to estimate the following model: y2 = fX), (6) where y2 denotes the contribution of the total factor productivity to the economic growth and x3 the extent of sectoral reallocation of labour force towards productive industries. The variable x3 is calculated as the difference between the share size of workers employed in productive in- dustries in the terminal year and the share size of workers employed in productive industries in the base year (see next section). The greater and more positive this difference, the greater is the process of structural ad- justment in the period between the terminal and the base year. The equa- tion (6) can be specified as an ordinary elasticity model (7): y2 = aoXTexp(e)/ln ^ ln(y2) = ln(ao) + ^lnfe] + e, (7) or as the logit model (8): / P(y3 = l|x3) \ Using the econometric framework, we are faced with a specific prob- lem. We need a sufficient number of observations for dependent and explanatory variables. Namely, we acquire a combination of data on the n n contribution of total factor productivity to the growth using the esti- mates of production function and those of the growth accounting frame- work, which are further explained. But the time period 1996-2003 pro- vides only 7 observations. Hence, the time series data are not appropriate even for the aggregate production function estimates. The problem can be resolved by introducing another dimension in our analysis, i. e. the observation at the municipality level. If we combine the sectoral dimension (about 30 industries according to nace classifi- cation) with the period of seven years, the panel data framework can be established to estimate production functions at the municipality level. This procedure can assure a sufficient number of observations for the dependent variable (the contribution of the total factor productivity to the economic growth) and the explanatory variable (the amount of sec- toral reallocation of labour force towards more productive industries). Data Used We employ the proposed econometric framework as well as McCom- bie's framework. The methodological details and belonging empirical es- timates are discussed in the following section. Within the econometric framework we use a three-stage procedure. First, we estimate production functions at the level of municipalities. Real value added expressed in 1996 constant prices is used as the depen- dent variable, while the producer price index (PPI) acts as a deflator, where PPI1996 = 100. As the first explanatory variable we use the vari- able of the effective labour force that was calculated according to Barro in Lee's (1994) methodological framework: x1 = HKI • L, where (9) where the symbols mean: x1 - variable that measures the amount of human capital expressed in terms of effective labour force used for production, HKI - human capital index, L - labour force expressed as number of employees, Wj - coefficient of relative real wage for j-th level of acquired education, Kj - share of employed people (labour force) with j-th level of acquired education. k (10) As the second explanatory variable we use the amount of capital as a production factor. This variable is expressed in terms of tangible fixed assets, and is also expressed in 1996 constant prices. At the second stage we estimate the contribution of each separate pro- duction factor (physical capital, human capital and total factor produc- tivity) to past growth. At the third stage we estimate the elasticity model and logit model. In the case of the elasticity model the dependent variable measures the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth (we have 147 estimates on this variable since we provide estimates of the produc- tion function for 147 municipalities). The explanatory variable measures the amount of sectoral reallocation of labour force from less productive industries towards more productive ones and was calculated as follows: X3 = 02002 - Oi996, where (11) LP 1996 01996 = —-and (12) LD1996 LP2002 2002 - 77;-• U3J LD2002 Symbols: x- - variable that measures the sectoral labour reallocation expressed as the change in the share of labour force employed in the propulsive industries with respect to labour force employed in the digressive industries, 02002 - variable that measures the share of labour force employed in the propulsive industries with respect to labour force employed in the digressive industries in the year 2002, 01996 - variable that measures the share of labour force employed in the propulsive industries with respect to labour force employed in the digressive industries in the year 1996, LP1996 - variable that measures labour force employed in the propulsive industries in the year 1996, LD1996 - variable that measures labour force employed in the digressive industries in the year 1996, LP2002 - variable that measures labour force employed in the digressive industries in the year 2002, LD1996 - variable that measures labour force employed in the propulsive industries in the year 2002. For estimating the logit model we take the same explanatory variable as in the case of the ordinary elasticity model, while the dependent vari- able takes value 1 if the contribution of total factor productivity to eco- nomic growth was more than 50% and 0 if it was less than 50%. All needed data for conducting the empirical estimates were acquired from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Empirical Framework estimation of average and stochastic frontier production functions The role of human capital and the nature of economic growth are de- rived from the comparison of the estimated production function coef- ficients, particularly the elasticity of output pertaining to human capi- tal. However, there exist two different production function frameworks, which are used for economic analysis: first, the average production func- tion framework and second, the marginal stochastic frontier production function framework. The advantage of the stochastic frontier model is that it considers inefficiency and random disturbances and can therefore explain why production at a certain moment in time is not at the tech- nological frontier. On the other hand, the average production function approach assumes that production is at the technological frontier. Hence, this approach does not distinguish between technological progress and efficiency gains to explain why total factor productivity is changing. This difference can be used for detecting possible inefficiency in production. Namely, if there exists a large difference between estimated coefficients of the stochastic frontier production function and aggregate production function, this means that production factors are not used efficiently. To answer this question we estimate the aggregate production function as defined in equation (9). First, we estimate it as the average production function using the convenient ordinary least square (ols) estimator for panel data. Second, we estimate the same model as the marginal stochas- tic frontier production function. where the symbols mean: y - variable that measures the amount of produced output, ß0 - constant term that expresses the level of total factor productivity, x1 - variable that measures the amount of used production factor human capital, (14) ß1 - coefficient of elasticity, x2 - variable that measures the amount of used production factor physical capital, ß2 - coefficient of elasticity, s - error term. The stochastic production frontier models were first introduced by Aigner et al. (1977) and Meeusen and van den Broeck (1977). The nature of the stochastic frontier production function can be best derived from the average production function model (such as in equation 14) that is appropriate only for economies without inefficiency. A fundamental el- ement of the stochastic frontier production function is that an economy produces less than it might due to inefficiency. The production function that considers this standpoint is specified as follows: where the symbols mean: y - variable that measures the amount of produced output, ß0 - constant term that expresses the level of total factor productivity, x1 - variable that measures the amount of used production factor human capital, ß1 - coefficient of elasticity, x2 - variable that measures the amount of used production factor physical capital, ß2 - coefficient of elasticity, s - error term. 6 - term of technical inefficiency. The value for 6 must be in an interval (0,1]. If 6 = 1, then the economy is achieving the maximum output with the technology embodied in the production function (see equation (15)). Since output is assumed to be strictly positive, the degree of technical efficiency is also assumed to be strictly positive. Taking the natural logarithms of equation (15) and defining we get: Note: Definitions of symbols are reported in equation (15). Since u is subtracted from ln(y) the restriction 0 <6 < 1 implies that u > 0. For estimating the parameters of the stochastic frontier produc- tion model (and also the average production function with the ols esti- mator) the statistical package Stata 8 is used in calculations that provide (15) ln(y) = [ln(ß0) + ß1ln(x1) + ß2ln(x2) + s] - u. (16) table 1 Econometric estimates of aggregate average and aggregate marginal stochastic frontier production functions (1) (2) (3) £yi ,xi 0.507 0.321 0.662 syi ,x2 0.312 0.501 0.149 ßo 3.876 4.232 2.661 ey 1,X1 + ey\,x2 0.819 0.822 0.811 Note: Column headings as follows: (1) aggregate average production function, (2) aggregate marginal stochastic frontier production function, (3) aggregate average production function. £yi ,x\ - coefficient of elasticity of output pertaining to human capital, Syl ,x2 - coefficient of elasticity of output pertaining to physical capital, ß0 - constant term. Source: Novak 2003. a Maximum-likelihood estimator for a time-invariant, time-varying de- cay stochastic frontier production function model, and for a truncated- normal random variable u ~ N+(ß, afy. The estimates are presented in table 1. The first column shows esti- mates of the average production function using the ols estimator while the second column gives estimates of the marginal stochastic frontier production function using the Maximum-likelihood estimator for the time invariant model. The comparison of results of the estimated average and stochastic frontier production function does not indicate any large differences. We could make an assertion that persistent differences are due to different es- timators used. But of special interest are ratios of estimated parameters. In the average production function, the estimated parameters pertaining to human capital are in both cases higher than the estimated parame- ters pertaining to physical capital. Yet, the estimated parameters of the marginal stochastic frontier aggregate production function exhibit op- posite values. The estimated parameter pertaining to physical capital is greater than the estimated parameter pertaining to human capital. The differences detected between the two estimates are quite impor- tant from an economic point of view. We are faced with two different measures of economic policy, the objective of which is to achieve a faster economic growth. If our starting points are estimates of the average pro- duction function we will support the growth of human capital. The in- crease of human capital by 1% is associated with the increase of output by 0.507%, whereby the increase of physical capital by 1% is associated with the increase of output by only 0.312%. But if our starting points are esti- mates of the aggregate stochastic frontier production function the advice for policy makers will be the opposite. In this case the increase of physical capital will be more appropriate as it would produce a higher economic growth. The increase of physical capital by 1% is associated with the in- crease of output by 0.501%, whereby the increase of human capital by 1% is associated with the increase of output by only 0.321%. An interesting feature of the results is also decreasing returns to scale in both production function models (in the average and in the marginal stochastic frontier). This swap of estimated coefficients that is conditional on the selected framework of the production function suggests an inefficient use of one or both production factors. Foundations for this statement arise from the methodological features of the marginal stochastic frontier model compared with the average production function. As we have highlighted, there is no distinction between technological progress and technical effi- ciency within the average production function framework. It is assumed that production factors are used efficiently. As we know, this is not the case within the framework of the stochastic frontier production function that permits also inefficiency. The existence of inefficiency is demonstrated by the distance of the actual production from the production frontier. The increasing ineffi- ciency reduces the value of the estimated elasticity coefficients of output pertaining to the production factor that is used inefficiently. In our case the highest value of the coefficient of elasticity of human capital is sig- nificant in the average production function framework that postulates its efficient use. This coefficient is lower than is the relevant coefficient of elasticity, which is estimated within the stochastic frontier framework suggesting the existence of inefficiency. Therefore, we confirm that hu- man capital is the production factor that is used inefficiently in the Slove- nian economy. We therefore conduct the growth accounting analytical framework, which is based on the estimated parameters of the average aggregate production function and the stochastic frontier aggregate pro- duction function. Results are summarised in table 2. As we can see from the results, the contribution of physical capital to economic growth (approximately 56%) remains constant regardless of the production function framework used. This is obviously not the case for the contribution of human capital to economic growth, which is significantly lower than within the stochastic frontier framework. This table 2 Estimates of growth accounting model (1) (2) (3) ö 25.27 25.52 28.87 Y 56.67 56.72 56.04 72 18.06 19.76 15.09 Note: Column headings as follows: (1) aggregate average production function, (2) aggregate average production function, (3) aggregate average production function. ö - contribution of human capital to economic growth in %, Y - contribution of physical capital to economic growth in %, y2 - contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth in %. Source: Novak 2003. indicates that there exists a potential for a more efficient use of human capital that can increase its contribution to economic growth. Structural and Standardised Component of Aggregate Productivity Growth From the comparison of the estimated parameters of the average and the stochastic frontier production functions, and the related results from the growth accounting equations we can conclude that during the period 1996-2002 human capital (as a production factor) was used inefficiently. That was the main reason for the decreasing returns to scale at the aggre- gate level. This fact raises a question about the main reasons leading to the in- efficient use of human capital in the Slovenian economy. Some results from our earlier analysis (Novak 2003) indicated that this could be re- lated to the uncompleted process of sectoral labour reallocation towards more propulsive industries with a greater labour productivity in terms of value-added per employee. As we found, one of the key characteristics of structural adjustments that occurred in the Slovenian economy be- tween the years 1996 and 2002 was only a marginal change in the labour reallocation from less productive industries (decreasing industries) to- wards more productive and propulsive ones. In 1996 about 61% of labour was employed in industries with an average productivity that was lower than the average productivity in the Slovenian economy as a whole. By 2002 this share fell to approximately 60%. The required deeper struc- tural changes of labour reallocation and a sufficient adjustment were ob- viously not made during the analysed period. McCombie (1991, 70-85) argued that the uncompleted process of sec- toral reallocation of labour could negatively affect the growth of aggre- gate productivity, which is the main source of the intensive nature of eco- nomic growth. We follow his methodology to decompose the growth rate of aggregate productivity in the Slovenian economy during the period 1996-2002 into a structural component that measures the contribution of sectoral reallocation of labour to the growth of aggregate productivity, and into the standardised component that measures the contribution of other factors to the growth of aggregate productivity using the following fundamental equation (McCombie 1991, 74): The standardised growth component is defined as the aggregate pro- ductivity growth that would have occurred if all sectors had experienced the same growth rate of employment, i. e. if their employment had grown at the same rate as that of the total employment. This standardised com- ponent is expressed in the first square brackets. The structural compo- nent of the aggregate productivity growth is caused by the labour real- location from less productive industries towards more propulsive ones, which is leading to changes in the sectoral structure of employment in the national economy. According to nace propulsive sectors, i. e. industries with labour pro- ductivity that is greater than the average labour productivity in the whole economy, are: ca Mining and quarrying of energy materials, cb Mining and quarrying of non energy materials, d e Manufacturing of paper, pub- lishing and printing, d g Manufacturing of chemicals products and man- made fibres, e Electricity, gas and water supply, I Transport, storage and communication, j Financial intermediation, k Real estate, renting and business activities, l Public administration and defence, M Education, n Health and social work, and o Other social and personal services. Note that the results can be biased to government policies and associated pol- icy transfers that had been in place at a time prior to Slovenia's accession to the European Union (eu). Digressive (or declining, lagging behind) industries are those experi- encing a labour productivity which is lower than the average productivity of the whole economy. (17) table 3 Calculation of the standardized and structural components of the aggregate productivity growth in the Slovenian economy between the years 1996 and 2002 lnZ ,P,,t • a,,0 ln£ ,P,,0 • a,,0 ln£ ,P,,t • a,,t T 8.12595 7-44173 8.10703 7 Data needed for calculating the standardized and structural compo- nents of the aggregate productivity growth in the Slovenian economy are summarised in table 3. The first column shows the natural log of aggregate productivity in 2002 (terminal year) under the assumption that the sectoral structure of labour is the same as in 1996 (base year); the second column gives the natural log of aggregate productivity in the base year, while the third column shows the natural log of aggregate productivity in the terminal year. The last column represents the value of the terminal year. Using these data we calculate the structural and standardized components of the aggregate productivity growth as follows: (18) P = Pst + Ps 1 T 1 + — T ln Z P i,T • ai,0 ln ^ Pi,0 • a,0 ln Pi, i,T • Oi,T ln Pi, i,T • ai,0 (19) i • [8. 12595 - 7.44173] + i[8. 10703 - 8.12595] = 1. 09971, where the symbols mean: pst - the structural component of the aggregate productivity growth, ps - the standardised component of the aggregate productivity growth. Source: Own calculations. The results support our hypothesis on the deterioration in the sectoral structure of labour in the Slovenian economy during the period 1996- 2002. This is revealed in particular by the negative contribution of the structural change of labour to the aggregate factor productivity growth. On the basis of the empirical results of the estimated average and stochastic frontier production functions, extended by the growth ac- counting framework and the standardised and structural component of the aggregate productivity growth, we can now explain the nature and causes of the economic growth of the Slovenian economy between the years 1996 and 2002. Extensive economic growth was characterised by decreasing returns to scale, which caused an inefficient use of human capital. The main reason for this inefficient use was the uncompleted process of sectoral labour reallocations. We can clearly confirm that the labour force with the embodied technological knowledge (i. e. human capital) remains inefficiently allocated across industries. Impact of Sectoral Labour Reallocation on the Nature of Economic Growth We finally discuss the significance of the impact of sectoral labour re- allocation on the nature of economic growth. For conducting this test we need a sufficient number of observations for the variable expressing the nature of economic growth and for the variable expressing labour reallocation towards propulsive industries. For satisfying this criterion we extended our empirical analysis from the cross-sectoral time series analysis to the regional cross-sectoral time series analysis. Hence we esti- mated the stochastic frontier production functions together with the re- lated growth accounting equations for 147 Slovenian municipalities. On this basis we calculated a coefficient of the sectoral labour reallocation for each Slovenian municipality. Our objective is to explain the nature of the Slovenian economic growth during the analysed period. We are trying to find out if there exists any significant impact of labour reallocation across industries on the extensive nature of economic growth in the Slovenian economy. We use estimates of the correlation coefficient, the coefficient of elasticity, and odds ratios from the logit model. The theoretical specifications used in the empirical investigation are presented below. Coefficient of correlation £[(X3 - X3)(y2 - y2)] . , r =------(20) (n - 1)0x3 <2 Elasticity model y2 = aoxaiexp(e)/ln ^ ln(y2) = ln(ao) + ailn[x3] + e (21) Logit model ( P(y3 = l|x3) , Human Capital and Economic Growth by Municipalities in Slovenia 173 table 4 Theoretical specifications of the coefficient of correlation, elasticity model Source: Own calculations. Symbols: r - coefficient of correlation, x3 - variable that measures the sectoral reallocation of labour, x3 - average value of the variable x3, y2 - variable that measures the nature of economic growth in terms of the contribution of the total factor productivity to economic growth, y2 - average value of the variable y2, n - number of observations,