No. 8, Vol. XXII, 2016 Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 (print) ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf ) No. 8 / Vol. XXII / 2016 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Barbara Bratuž Ferk, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Urška Brodar, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Branka Tavčar, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Ana Vidrih, MSc. Author of Selected Topic: Valerija Korošec, PhD (Social Progress Index 2016) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, MSc, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Demat d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Current economic trends .............................................................................................................................................. 5 International environment............................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic developments in Slovenia ............................................................................................................................. 8 Labour market .................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Prices .................................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Balance of payments ....................................................................................................................................................... 16 Financial markets ............................................................................................................................................................. 17 Public finance.................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Selected topic Social Progress Index 2016............................................................................................................................................. 23 Statistical appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 25 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 8th December 2016. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Economic activity in Slovenia continues to strengthen as a result of exports and household consumption. Foreign demand and the improving competitive position of Slovenian companies on foreign markets continue to strengthen exports, which remain among the main drivers of economic growth. Export-related manufacturing production exceeded pre-crisis levels in the middle of the year. The situation is also improving in most service activities, particularly tourism-related segments. There has been a stronger rebound in private consumption amid a significant improvement in labour market conditions and increased consumer optimism, which is also reflected in the increase in some prices. Private investment continues to strengthen, while public investment is lower than a year ago owing to a standstill in the absorption of EU funds upon the transition to the new financial perspective. Despite recording considerably higher GDP growth than the euro area average in the last few years, Slovenia remains in the group of countries with their GDP lagging the most behind pre-crisis levels. The labour market is recovering faster than last year. Reflecting broad-based growth in economic activity, the number of employed persons increased more in the first nine months of this year than in the same period last year. The number of unemployed persons is also falling, with this figure one-tenth lower year on year at the end of November. The growth of average gross earnings in the public and private sectors is also higher than last year; in the public sector, this was owing to the partial relaxation of austerity measures and, in the private sector, this was a result of the rebound in economic activity. After almost two years of decline, consumer prices have been higher year on year in the last six months. The inflation is largely the result of a declining negative contribution of energy prices; service prices continue to grow amid a further recovery in private consumption; food prices also remain higher than a year earlier. The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors continues to contract year on year. We estimate that this is attributable not only to the banks’ caution in lending but also weaker corporate demand for bank loans on the domestic market, with businesses currently having sufficient own resources and other more favourable sources of finance. Banks are financing households to a greater extent than enterprises, as households are considered less risky clients because of their lower levels of indebtedness and the favourable labour market conditions. Interest rates for household loans do not deviate significantly from the EMU average (in contrast to those for corporate loans, which are higher). The structural composition of sources of funding for banks is changing in favour of non-banking sector deposits; it is mainly overnight deposits that are rising, which is deteriorating the maturity structure of sources of finance. The general government deficit on a cash basis dropped almost by half year on year in the first nine months. Revenue was up primarily as a result of the favourable labour market developments, while expenditure was down largely owing to the lower investment upon the transition to the implementation of the new EU financial perspective. Other categories of expenditure are rising, particularly expenditure related to the partial easing of austerity measures and expenditure on goods and services. Exports remain the main driver behind the stronger economic Economic growth in the euro area is moderate and expected to activity in Slovenia; final consumption is also rising. remain at this level at the end of the year. GDP in EMU (left axis) ESI for EMU* (right axis) Final consumption Exports of goods and services GDP 125 Ifo business climate index for EMU (right axis) 4 140 80 -2 80 3 120 115 Indices; ESI long-term average=100; Ifo 2005=100 Seasonally adjusted real index 2008=100 Year-on-year growth, in % 110 105 100 2 1 95 90 85 0 100 -1 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: Eurostat, EC, Ifo. Note: *The figure for Q4 2016 is the average for October and November. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Year-on-year growth, in % General government revenue increases primarily owing to the The improvements to labour market conditions are picking up favourable labour market conditions, which is reflected in the pace this year. further deficit reduction. Growth in the number of employed Tax revenues Social security contributions Gross earnings Growth in the number of unemployed, right axis Non-tax revenues Receipts from the EU budget 4 16 Capital and transf. reve., donations TOTAL REVENUE (right axis) -1 3 12 2 8 1 4 0 0 Year-on-year growth, in % -4 -2 -8 -3 -12 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: SURS, ESS. After almost two years of deflation, consumer prices for the last 2015 2016 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. The structure of bank sources of finance is changing in favour of six months have been higher year on year. non-banking sector deposits; their maturities are shortening. Other Services Other Eurosystem Domestic banks Domestic non-banking sectors Fuels and energy Food Foreign banks Total Inflation (%) 4 3 Contribution to year-on-year growth, in pps Year-on-year growth 2 1 0 -1 -2 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12Jan 13 Jul 13Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Oct11 Oct12 Oct13 Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. current economic trends International environment Figure 1: Quarterly GDP growth rates in main trading partners Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q3 16 EC forecast Quarterly growth, seasonally adjusted, in % 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Source: Eurostat, EC forecast (November 2016). Moderate economic growth in the euro area continues. In the third quarter, GDP also rose by 0.3% quarter on quarter and 1.7% year on year (seasonally adjusted). Economic growth was recorded for all Slovenia’s main trading partners from the euro area, which was mainly in line with the EC’s expectations. It was mainly driven by growth in private consumption. Economic sentiment and consumer confidence also indicate similar growth for the last quarter of the year. Table 1: Comparison of GDP growth forecasts of international International institutions left their forecasts for the institutions for 2016 and 2017 2016 2017 IMF Oct 16 EC Nov 16 CONS Nov 16 OECD Nov 16 IMF Oct 16 EC Nov 16 CONS Nov 16 OECD Nov 16 EU 1.9 1.8 1.8 n.p. 1.7 1.6 1.4 n.p. EMU 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.6 DE 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.7 IT 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 AT 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 FR 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 HR 1.9 2.6 2.4 n.p. 2.1 2.5 2.3 n.p. RU -0.8 -1.0 -0.6 -0.8 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 economic growth of Slovenia’s main trading partners more or less unchanged in the autumn, but took the view that downside risks to growth had increased. Economic growth is expected to hover between 1.5% and 1.7% this year and in 2017 and 2018. With labour market conditions improving further, this will continue to be driven by growth in private consumption. Of Slovenia’s main trading partners outside the euro area, the forecasts indicate favourable GDP growth in Croatia, which will be fuelled by domestic demand. Russia has not yet emerged from recession this year, but its economic situation is predicted to improve next year, particularly as a result of increases in the price of oil. The risks to the forecast have Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2016), European Economic Forecast heightened, primarily as a result of political uncertainty, Autumn 2016 (November 2016), Consensus Forecasts (November 2016), OECD subdued GDP growth outside the EU and weak global Economic Outlook (November 2016). Note: N/A - not available.. trade. Table 2: Brent oil prices, the USD/EUR exchange rate and EURIBOR average change, in %* 2015 X 16 XI 16 XI 16/X 16 XI 16/XI 15 I-XI 16/I-XI 15 Brent USD, per barrel 52.35 49.52 44.73 -9.7 1.1 -20.5 Brent EUR, per barrel 48.25 47.36 44.43 -6.2 3.7 -18.7 EUR/USD 1.110 1.103 1.080 -2.1 0.6 0.0 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.020 -0.309 -0.313 -0.4 -22.5 -24.9 Source: EIA, ECB, EMMI Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Economic developments in Slovenia Box 1: Gross domestic product – Q3 2016 Growth in economic activity continued in the third quarter; in the first three quarters of the year, GDP was up 2.6% year on year in real terms. Relative to the previous quarter, GDP increased by 1.0% (seasonally adjusted), which was the highest growth rate in the last nine quarters and significantly higher than the euro area average. Foreign demand and the improving competitive position of Slovenian companies on foreign markets continue to strengthen exports, which remain one of the main drivers of economic growth. Closely linked to exports, the growth of manufacturing output is among the fastest in the EU this year, having exceeded the pre-crisis level in the summer months. The situation is also improving for the majority of service activities, particularly tourism-related segments, which recorded significant increases in arrivals and spending by foreign tourists. Reflecting the favourable economic situation, labour market conditions continue to improve, which is raising consumer confidence and encouraging households to spend. The recovery in private consumption is therefore more pronounced this year and managed to catch up with year-on-year GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year. In addition to the consumption of durable goods, which has already been rising for several years and represents one-tenth of total consumption, spending on other goods and services also rose in the third quarter. Less favourable developments have been recorded only for total investment, which is lower than last year as a result of the reduced public investment owing to the standstill in the absorption of EU funds upon the transition to the new financial perspective. Private investment continues to strengthen, which is related to higher capacity utilisation, strong business results, the deleveraging of companies and more favourable lending conditions. Given that bank lending to the corporate sector remains modest, we estimate that companies are now using their own resources to finance investment to a greater extent than in the past. Despite the relatively faster narrowing of the gap in recent years, Slovenia remains in the group of euro area countries whose GDP levels lag the most behind pre-crisis figures. Figure 2: GDP level in Slovenia and its main trading Figure 3: Expenditure structure of the change in GDP, partners Slovenia Source: Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SURS. Table 3: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2015 IX 16/VIII 16 IX 16/IX 15 I-IX 16/I-IX15 Merchandise exports, real1 4.3 0.53 5.9 6.3 Merchandise imports, real1 3.9 -0.93 5.7 4.8 Services exports, nominal2 8.4 1.13 6.4 4.7 Services imports, nominal2 3.7 -2.63 1.2 3.3 Industrial production, real 5.6 1.33 7.44 6.14 -manufacturing 6.0 1.03 8.24 7.64 Construction -value of construction put in place, real -8.2 4.03 -9.2 -21.0 Real turnover in retail trade 1.0 -0.53 1.84 1.64 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 5.4 0.73 5.34 3.94 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments statistics, 3seasonally adjusted, 4working-day adjusted data. Figure 4: Merchandise trade – real Source: SURS. Figure 5: Services trade – real Exports of services Imports of services Seasonally adjusted, in EUR m, constant prices, reference year 2010 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 Q1 12 Real merchandise exports and imports increased further in the third quarter, seasonally adjusted.1 We estimate that the growth of exports continued in most sectors. The most significant contribution to growth was generated by the motor vehicle manufacturing sector, which accounts for 16% of Slovenia’s total merchandise exports.2 The growth of merchandise imports was based on the strengthening of private business investment and higher household consumption. Source: SURS. Figure 6: Production volume in the manufacturing sector Low-technology industries Medium-low-technology industries Medium–high and high-technology industries Manufacturing, total The growth of production volume in manufacturing is broad-based. Manufacturing output increased in the third quarter in all industry groups according to technology intensity. This figure was also up year on year in most industries for the first nine months of the year. The weakest growth was still recorded by low-technology industries, where the production of some of the more labour-intensive industries (the textile and furniture industries) also started to rebound this year. In addition to revenue growth on foreign markets, with the recovery in domestic demand most industries also recorded higher sales revenues on the domestic market. Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 11 After declining in the second quarter, real exports of services bounced back in the third quarter; however, the growth of real imports of services remained moderate (seasonally adjusted).3 The growth in exports largely reflects higher spending by foreign tourists in Slovenia and increased exports of transport services. Import growth is underpinned particularly by increased domestic household spending abroad (tourism) and higher imports of technical business services related to trade. Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 2 Estimated on the basis of the data available for the first eight months of 2016, according to the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD). 1 According to the national accounts statistics. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 3 According to the national accounts statistics. Figure 7: Value of construction output The value of construction output remained roughly unchanged in the third quarter. Construction activity has been much lower this year than in 2015, which is mostly attributable to the reduced government investment upon the transition to the new EU financial perspective. In the wake of extremely low levels of activity during the crisis, the construction of flats is on the rise amid the improving labour market conditions. Activity in the construction of non-residential buildings has also increased recently. Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 8: Turnover in trade subsectors Retail trade, real (left axis) Wholesale trade, nom. (left axis) Motor vehicles and repair, real (right axis) Distributive trades recorded further growth in the sales 140 of durable and semi-durable goods in the third quarter, which was mainly the result of increased household Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100 128 116 104 92 consumption. The sales of computer, sport, household and telecommunication equipment, furniture and passenger cars to natural persons rose in particular. Turnover in the sale of food products4 remained at the lowest level since 2008, reflecting changes in consumer buying behaviour, which were also partly due to the crisis;5 this was the only sector to see no year-on-year growth in the first nine months of 2016. The highest year-on-year turnover growth in this period (by over one-fifth) was recorded in the sale of motor vehicles, as a result of stronger sales 80 abroad and further growth in the sales of new passenger and goods motor vehicles to domestic buyers.6 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 4 The sale of food, beverages and tobacco products. 5 Consumers first reacted to the crisis by reducing the volume and frequency of their purchases; they then also made changes to their shopping habits. They began purchasing more affordable products from the trading companies which dominated the market at the time; they also started shopping in discount stores ( The Marketing Monitor, the Slovenian Marketing Association, various issues). In addition to making more prudent purchases, households have also become more self-sufficient by growing their own food (ibid). 6 After last year’s strong growth, the sales of new goods motor vehicles, goods trailing vehicles and passenger cars to natural persons on the domestic market continue to rise this year, but the sales of passenger cars to legal persons are lower year on year after three years of consecutive growth. According to our estimates, the spike in exports of second-hand vehicles also continues this year. Figure 9: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) Total Transportation and storage (H) Information and communication activities (J) Professional and technical activities (M) Administrative and support service activities (N) Accommodation and food service activities (I) The growth of nominal turnover in market services continues and remains broad-based. In the first nine months, turnover was up year on year in most market services. This growth was largely driven by foreign demand and private consumption (transportation; accommodation and food service activities; computer services). Less favourable results were recorded for segments that are more dependent on domestic investment demand (architectural and technical services). Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Economic sentiment Manufacturing Retail trade Service activities 30 Construction Consumers* Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Owing to methodological changes, 2016 data are not comparable with previous data. Seasonally adjusted indicator value, 3-month moving average -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 20 10 0 Jan 11 Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12Jan 13 Jul 13Jan 14Jul 14Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 than in the first half of the year. service activities. Consumer confidence is also higher Confidence continues to increase in construction and Economic sentiment has been improving since mid-2016. Labour market 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 Reflecting the broad-based economic growth, the number of employed persons7 increased more than last year. The year-on-year rise in the number of employed person was stronger in the first nine months of 2016 than for the same period in 2015, particularly in manufacturing,8 professional, scientific and technical activities, and accommodation and food service activities. With the relaxation of hiring restrictions, public service activities recorded higher employment growth in the health sector, public administration and primary education. Companies’ expectations about future employment are at the highest level since the onset of the crisis. Manufacturing Construction Market services Public services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 12: Number of employed according to SRE and registered unemployed Employed according to SRE (left axis) 190 Number of registered unemployed, in '000, seasonally adjusted Amid higher levels of recruitment, the number of registered unemployed persons continues to decline.9 This decline is attributable not only to the outflow into employment, which was also up year on year in the first eleven months, but also to the decreasing inflow into unemployment, particularly owing to the termination of fixed-term contracts. There were also fewer first-time jobseekers, which in our view was also partly due to the slightly smaller generations of young people finishing school and improved job prospects when leaving school to enter the labour market. At the end of November, a total of 96,843 persons were registered as unemployed, which is 9.8% 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 less than last year. Source: SURS, ESS, calculations by IMAD. Figure 13: Average gross earnings per employee Jan–Sept 2015 Jan–Sept 2016 Average gross earnings Jan–Sept 2015 Average gross earnings Jan–Sept 2016 4.0 3.5 3.0 Average gross earnings increased again in the third quarter; their growth remains significantly higher than for the same period of the previous year. The stronger growth recorded in the private sector is linked to the strengthening of economic activity; in the public sector, this is attributable to the partial relaxation of austerity measures for public servants (promotions and the return of the pay scale). In contrast to previous years, earnings remain lower only in public corporations. 7 According to the Statistical Register of Employment; these are persons in paid employment and self-employed persons, with the exception of farmers. According to the national accounts statistics, employment also continued to increase in the third quarter. 8 In our view, this is also where most of the workers employed by the employment activities sector (which provides labour to other sectors) were assigned. The number of persons employed in the employment activities sector increased by 1,217 (or 8.7%) in the first nine months. The year-on-year growth in the number of these workers is gradually slowing, which could be a consequence of increased direct recruitment by companies in other sectors. 9 According to data from the labour force survey, the number of unemployed also declined further in the third quarter. Private sector Public sector – general 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Source: SURS. government corporations Nominal growth, in % Table 4: Labour market trend indicators change, in % 2015 IX 16/VIII 16 IX 16/IX 15 I-IX 16/I-IX15 Persons in formal employment2 0.9 0.21 1.8 1.3 Registered unemployed -6.1 -0.91 -9.2 -7.9 Average nominal gross wage 0.7 0.11 2.1 1.8 - private sector 0.5 -0.31 1.7 1.7 - public sector 1.2 0.31 2.9 2.4 -of which general government 1.0 0.71 4.7 3.8 of which public corporations 1.5 -0.61 -1.2 -0.8 2015 IX 15 VIII 16 IX 16 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 12.3 12.1 11.1 11.0 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted, 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers. Prices Other Services Fuels and energy Food Inflation (%) 4 In November, consumer prices remained slightly higher than one year before (0.6%). The level of inflation in the last 3 -1 -2 remain lower. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 15: Industrial producer and import prices PPI (domestic) PPI (foreign) Import prices 110 108 With further price increases for commodities on global Source: SURS. Table 5: Consumer price growth, in % 2015 XI16/X16 XI16/XI15 Total -0.5 0.1 0.6 Food 1.5 -0.9 1.2 Fuels and energy -6.7 1.2 -0.1 Services 0.7 -0.2 1.5 Other1 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 Total excluding food and energy 0.3 0.1 0.6 Core inflation – trimmean2 0.0 0.2 0.5 Administered prices3 -9.8 1.3 0.8 Tax impact – contribution in percentage points -0.2 0.0 0.0 106 104 102 100 Index 2010=100 Jan 11 Jan 11Jul 11Jul 11Jan 12Jan 12 Jul 12Jul 12 Jan 13Jan 13Jul 13Jul 13Jan 14Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 14Jan 15Jul 15 Jan 16Jul 15Jul 16 Jan 16 Jul 16 0 1 2 Year-on-year growth, in % last year. Meanwhile, the prices of services continue to rise year on year, which is mainly attributable to the ongoing recovery in household consumption. Food prices are also higher than a year ago; the prices of durable goods few months is largely the result of a declining negative contribution of energy prices. After a prolonged period of year-on-year declines, consumer prices in November almost reached the levels recorded at the same period markets, import prices rose in October to the level recorded at the end of 2015; the declines in industrial producer prices are also smaller. Domestic producer prices on foreign markets were similar to those for a year earlier, and remained below last year’s levels on the domestic market. Source: SURS, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2The trimmean approach excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. The optimum share is determined as a difference between the moving average and the calculated trimmed mean in the period of the last five years. 3 The calculation includes prices formulated on the basis of price mechanisms according to the Price Control Act, and prices under direct government control (oil derivatives, railway transport, school books, tolls). Figure 16: Real effective exchange rates of euro area countries Against 37 partners in EA and extra EA The price competitiveness of Slovenia’s economy remains relatively favourable. The real effective exchange rate deflated by relative consumer prices remains close to last year – the lowest levels since Slovenia’s accession to the EU. The year-on-year decline in relative10 prices has otherwise been slowing in the past few months, but amid a concomitant slower appreciation of the euro against the currencies of Slovenia’s main trading partners. When compared with other EU Member States for the first ten months of the year, Slovenia recorded slightly larger year-on-year gains in price competitiveness on euro area markets and slightly smaller losses in price competitiveness outside the euro area. Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. *A rise in the value indicates a loss in price competitiveness, and vice versa. 10 In Slovenia, compared with prices in its trading partners. Balance of payments Merchandise trade Trade in services Primary income Secondary income Four-quarter moving sum of transactions, in EUR m Current account 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 The current account surplus continues to widen. In the third quarter, the surplus mainly stemmed from the higher surplus in services trade; as the terms of trade deteriorated, the surplus in merchandise trade was lower year on year after ten consecutive quarterly rises despite the continuation of favourable export trends.11 The deficit in primary income remains lower year on year owing to the lower estimates of reinvested earnings of foreign direct investors; the deficit of secondary income is higher as a result of higher general government expenditure. In the twelve months to September, the current account surplus reached 6.7% of GDP. Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 6: Balance of payments I-IX 2016, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-IX 15 Current account 25,126.0 22,913.5 2,212.5 1,538.0 Goods 18,592.4 17,233.7 1,358.7 1,153.8 Services 4,793.8 3,073.1 1,720.7 1,526.9 Primary income 1,240.9 1,700.9 -460.0 -729.9 Secondary income 498.9 905.7 -406.8 -412.8 Capital account 233.7 447.4 -213.7 234.8 Financial account -1,544.6 -294.6 1,249.9 1,604.3 Direct investment 998.5 190.4 -808.0 -610.2 Portfolio investment -668.9 1,234.5 1,903.4 1,379.8 Other investment -1,814.8 -1,600.9 213.9 862.9 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -748.8 -748.8 -168.5 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts, the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows” means total expenditures; “balance” is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows” mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. Portfolio investment The net financing of the rest of the world continued. In Direct investment Financial derivatives Other investment the third quarter, the net capital outflow of the Bank of Financial transactions Slovenia remained higher than the net capital outflows of the government and private sectors combined. In line with the public sector purchase programme (PSPP), the Bank of Slovenia purchased foreign debt securities in the euro area. It also increased its financial assets abroad and repaid its Eurosystem liabilities. Owing to smaller returns, the government transferred its foreign account deposits12 to the central bank. In the private sector, net flows of direct investment predominated, particularly in the form of equity of foreign investors. 11 After having a positive impact on the nominal trade balance for three years, the terms of trade deteriorated in the third quarter for the first time, by 0.7%. Export prices declined more (by 1.8%) than import prices (by 1.1%) largely owing to the smaller year-on-year decline in import prices as a result of the rising prices of commodities on global markets. The decline in export prices is mainly a consequence of the falls in prices of oil and coal (C19), Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. electricity (D35), and computer, electronic and optical products (C26). Financial markets Figure 19: Changes in the volume of loans to domestic The year-on-year contraction in the volume of loans to non-banking sectors domestic non-banking sectors slowed slightly in October Households Enterprises and NFIs Government Total in comparison with previous months. This is largely 1,000 attributable to lower corporate and NFI deleveraging, which is nevertheless still relatively high. In our view, the Year-on-year changes, in EUR m 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Excluding the impact of the transfer of claims to the BAMC. reason for this lies not only in the banks’ caution in lending, but also weaker corporate demand for bank loans on the domestic market, with enterprises currently having sufficient own resources and other more favourable sources of funding at their disposal. The interest rates for enterprises in the Slovenian banking system are still significantly above the EMU average, and these gaps are widening with longer maturities and the increasing volume of loans. Banks are financing households to a greater extent than enterprises, with households considered less risky clients owing to their lower levels of indebtedness and favourable labour market conditions in general. Interest rates for household loans do not deviate significantly from the EMU average (interest rates for consumer loans are already lower). Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31. X 15 31. XII 15 31. X 16 31. X 16/30. IX 16 31. X 16/31. X 15 Loans total 21,818.8 21,741.8 20,638.4 0.5 -5.4 Enterprises and NFI 11,201.5 10,966.1 9,843.5 0.7 -12.1 Government 1,744.5 1,919.7 1,753.7 -1.7 0.5 Households 8,872.7 8,855.9 9,041.2 0.7 1.9 Consumer credits 2,059.8 2,032.2 2,113.0 0.9 2.6 Lending for house purchase 5,493.6 5,524.6 5,683.5 0.5 3.5 Other lending 1,319.3 1,299.1 1,244.7 1.6 -5.7 Bank deposits total 15,741.3 15,879.4 16,667.2 0.4 5.9 Overnight deposits 8,714.3 8,962.9 10,542.6 1.2 21.0 Term deposits 7,027.0 6,916.5 6,124.5 -1.0 -12.8 Government bank deposits, total 2,447.2 1,644.6 942.7 -7.5 -61.5 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 4,991.0 5,331.9 5,638.6 3.5 13.0 Figure 20: Main sources of finance in the Slovenian banking system Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. Other Eurosystem Domestic banks Domestic non-banking sectors Foreign banks Total 6,000 The structure of bank liabilities is changing in favour of 4,000 Year-on-year change, in EUR m non-banking sector deposits. These otherwise declined 2,000 year on year in October, which is a consequence of the base effect and the outflows of government deposits and, to a lesser extent, NFI deposits, while household and corporate deposits continue to rise. It is mainly -2,000 overnight deposits that are rising, which is deteriorating the maturity structure of sources of finance. -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance The general government deficit on a cash basis almost halved year on year in the first nine months. This decline mainly reflects better economic conditions, a significant change in the flows of EU funds13 and the retention of some measures to limit expenditure growth. The positive general government balance, excluding interest expenditure, was also significantly higher than in the same period of 2015. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan–Sept Jan–Sept 2015 2016 Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-IX 2015 I-IX 2016 Category I-IX 2015 I-IX 2016 EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % REVENUES TOTAL 11,472.7 2.2 11,677.9 1.8 EXPENDITURE TOTAL 12,246.4 -0.1 12,091.1 -1.3 Tax revenues* 6,003.3 3.6 6,277.5 4.6 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures** 2,702.0 -0.3 2,822.0 4.4 Personal income tax 1,440.0 3.2 1,518.3 5.4 Expenditure on goods and services 1,607.5 -0.6 1,660.1 3.3 Corporate income tax 448.8 28.2 467.3 4.1 Interest payments 823.7 2.4 877.1 6.5 Taxes on immovable property 124.7 20.8 146.1 17.1 Reserves 123.3 93.0 126.4 2.5 Value added tax 2,352.5 2.2 2,404.2 2.2 Transfers to individuals and households 4,814.6 0.7 4,903.3 1.8 Excise duties 1,063.9 -3.3 1,156.5 8.7 Other current transfers 885.2 -5.1 885.7 0.1 Social security contributions 4,050.6 3.7 4,242.8 4.7 Investment expenditure 968.4 -5.3 511.0 -47.2 Non-tax revenues 712.7 -21.3 741.6 4.1 Payments to the EU budget 321.7 0.3 305.7 -5.0 Receipts from the EU budget 623.3 10.3 303.0 -51.4 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE -773.7 -413.2 Other 82.7 52.9 112.9 36.5 PRIMARY BALANCE 36.2 432.7 Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note:* Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions.** Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. Figure 22: Revenue growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Tax revenues General government revenue rose year on year in the first Social security contributions Non-tax revenues nine months. The fastest growth is recorded for revenues Receipts from the EU budget related to favourable labour market developments. Capital and transferred revenues, donations Despite the shift towards a more positive trend, the year- TOTAL REVENUE (right axis) 8 on-year growth of consumption-based revenues remains 6 relatively low this year. This is related not only to the slow 4 2 0 -2 Year-on-year growth, in % recovery in total nominal domestic consumption, but also to transitional factors such as the effect of the change in the payment of VAT on imports.14 13 In the first months of 2016, Slovenia continued to record receipts from the EU budget from the previous EU perspective (but made no payments); at the same time, there has also not yet been any significant expenditure -4 (investment) from the new EU perspective. -6 14 In accordance with the amendment to the Value Added Tax Act, as of 1 July 2016, VAT on imports is no longer paid directly as an import duty -8 according to the customs declaration, but is instead reported in a VAT return by the taxable person. The tax collection is therefore delayed, 2015 2016 which results in a loss of revenue that is expected to decrease in the coming months. Figure 23: Expenditure growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Wages and other labour costs* Expenditure on goods and services Interest payments Reserves General government expenditure continues to decline Current transfers Capital expenditure Payments to the EU budget TOTAL EXPENDITURE (right axis) year on year. The bulk of this decline stems from lower 8 investment upon the transition to the implementation of the new EU financial perspective. The longer-term trend 6 4 2 0 -2 Year-on-year growth, in % growth rate in other expenditures otherwise amounts to only slightly more than half the rate of GDP growth, but it has been rising continuously this year, primarily owing to expenditure related to the partial relaxation of austerity measures (the wage bill in the public sector, transfers to individuals and households) and expenditure on goods and services. -4 -6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2016 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. Figure 24: EU budget receipts, Jan–Oct 2015 and 2016 EU budget receipts, Jan–Oct 2015 and 2016 Total receipts (Jan-October 2016) Total receipts (Jan-October 2015) Structural Funds Cohesion Fund Common Agricultural Policy Other Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was negative in the first ten months. EU budget receipts totalled EUR 333.1 million, and payments to the EU budget amounted to EUR 7 million more. The bulk of receipts were funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy (EUR 197.0 million: 63.0% of the funds envisaged in the budget). The majority of the resources from the Cohesion Fund and Structural Funds that were paid into the state budget in the first five months of the year were from the previous financial perspective. Under the new financial perspective, only EUR 20 million was disbursed from the state budget for projects. selected topics Social Progress Index 2016 According to the Social Progress Index (SPI) 2016,1 Slovenia ranks 20th of the 133 countries assessed. The main feature of this index is that it measures social progress solely through social and environmental (‘output’) indicators and not by economic (‘input’) indicators. It includes 50 indicators broken down into 12 components, which are further divided into three dimensions: basic human needs; foundations of wellbeing; and opportunity. This year’s report also included the SPI for European regions at the NUTS-2 level for the first time. Slovenia is ranked among the countries with a high level of social progress.2 These countries are typically in the group of best-performing countries for the basic human needs dimension, but fail to keep pace regarding the opportunity dimension. In terms of the basic human needs dimension, Slovenia ranks among the best for the nutrition and basic medical care component. Regarding the foundations of wellbeing dimension, Slovenia also performs strongly in terms of access to basic knowledge, but lags behind for the health and wellness component. In terms of the opportunity dimension, Slovenia is strongest in the personal rights component, but lags behind regarding access to advanced education; however, this is only because of the indicator for the number of globally Figure 25: Twelve SPI components, Slovenia, EU-26 average, 2016 Slovenia EU-26 average* Nutrition and basic medical care Access to Tolerance and inclusion Personal freedom and choice Personal rights Source: Social Progress Index. Note: EU Member States excluding LU and MT. 1 Social Progress Index, www.socialprogressimperative.org/global-index/. The index was published for only the third time in 2016 and is still in the process of being developed, which precludes a direct comparison between years. 2 The report classifies countries into six groups (tiers) in terms of social progress: very high social progress countries (12); high social progress countries (26); upper middle social progress countries (24); lower middle social progress countries (33); low social progress countries (31); and very low social progress countries (7). The highest-ranking country is Finland (90.09) and the lowest-ranking country is the Central African Republic. With the exception of Australia and New Zealand, the top twelve countries are from Northern Europe. Slovenia ranks just behind the US, with Portugal, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Italy placing immediately afterwards. Slovenia ranks 12th of the 26 EU Member States assessed. Table 9: Rankings of Slovenia's cohesion regions of Vzhodna Slovenija and Zahodna Slovenija on the Regional SPI 2016 Eastern Western EU Regional SPI 161 127 GDP per capita (2011) 209 111 Basic human needs 167 163 Nutrition and basic medical care 115 37 Water and sanitation 203 236 Shelter 166 158 Personal safety 74 50 Foundations of wellbeing 129 45 Access to basic knowledge 73 14 Access to information and communications 130 130 Health and wellness 199 136 Ecosystem sustainability 143 138 Opportunity 177 122 Personal rights 255 251 Personal freedom and choice 104 76 Tolerance and inclusion 189 182 Access to advanced education 115 14 Source: Social Progress Index. Note: The underlined figures denote underperformance within the group of 15 regions of similar GDP per capita; the bolded figures denote overperformance. ranked universities.3 This is the only component where Slovenia lags behind the average of the EU Member States included in the analysis. The analysis shows that Slovenia exploits its economic resources well. The Social Progress Index has been designed to help understand the relationship between social progress and economic development. This is also the purpose of the analysis of the index of social progress relative to GDP. This should reveal how effectively a country uses its economic resources and income to achieve its outcomes (i.e. the social progress attained). A similar approach was also used in the Human Development Report 2015, in which the rankings on the HDI and on income were compared. This report also reveals that Slovenia uses its economic resources effectively and ranks much higher for HDI (25th) than income (36th). The Social Progress Index also strongly corroborates the findings of older composite indicators, such as the Human Development Index4 and the Better Life Index. 5 Slovenia also ranks among the countries which have achieved high 3 This component includes four indicators: years of tertiary schooling; women’s average years in school; inequality in the attainment of education; and the number of globally ranked universities. 4 According to the Human Development Index 2015 (data from 2014 for 188 countries), Slovenia ranks 25th among the 49 countries with very high levels of human development. According to this indicator, Slovenia is above average on education (13th) but scores lower on income (36th). 5 Slovenia ranks 20th of 38 countries according to the latest OECD Better Life Index (BLI), recording above-average results in education, work-life balance, environmental quality and personal security, but below-average results in terms of income and wealth, job and earnings, civic engagement and subjective well-being. levels of progress on these indicators. It is above average not only in the area of personal safety, but also education, with the exception of access to further education, where the gap between the indices (see note 3) is widest. According to the EU Regional Social Progress Index,6 Vzhodna Slovenija (the Eastern Slovenia region) is failing to keep pace with Zahodna Slovenija (the Western Slovenia region). 7 A comparison between the Social Progress Index and GDP per capita shows a strong and positive correlation between the two for poor regions, whereas each additional euro of GDP per capita for richer regions contributes less and less to the improvement in the Social Progress Index. This is especially the case for the regions with capital cities such as Budapest, Bratislava, Prague, Brussels, Luxembourg and London. In relative terms, however, the opposite is the case: Zahodna Slovenija performs worse than one might expect, while Vzhodna Slovenija performs better. This year, a method for comparing relative outcomes (i.e. comparing a region’s performance within the group of fifteen regions of similar GDP per-capita) was used for the first time. Within these groups, the regions’ performances were categorised as being in accordance with expectations (expected performance), below expectations (underperformance) or neutral. Zahodna Slovenija performs relatively badly within its group, having been found underperforming on 24 indicators and overperforming on only one (infant mortality). Vzhodna Slovenija performs better in its group in relative terms (with regard to its Social Progress Index relative to per-capita GDP). It was found to have underperformed on eleven indicators and overperformed on seven. 6 SPI (Social Progress Index) records data for the EU’s 28 Member States (272 regions). The only difference with this methodology is that the regional index also includes indicators that are contextual and uniquely related to regional strategies within the regions. 7 See also the Slovenian Economic Mirror, No. 7/2016, p. 31. All the regions with below-average values in the regional economic performance index (i.e. the Savinjska, Posavska, Koroška, Primorsko-Notranjska, Podravska, Zasavska and Pomurska regions) are in the eastern cohesion region ( Vzhodna Slovenija). statistical appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Autumn forecast 2016 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.9 2.6 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,252 36,896 36,003 35,917 37,332 38,570 40,004 41,416 42,885 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,694 17,973 17,504 17,439 18,107 18,693 19,376 20,056 20,770 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,100 21,500 21,500 21,500 22,600 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 83 82 81 80 82 Rate of registered unemployment 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.2 10.2 9.5 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.2 7.5 6.8 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 2.4 -1.8 0.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 1.5 1.5 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.5 0.1 1.4 1.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 -0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 10.2 6.9 0.6 3.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.0 Exports of goods 12.0 8.0 0.4 3.3 6.3 5.3 5.9 5.8 5.1 Exports of services 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.9 3.4 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.4 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.8 5.0 -3.7 2.1 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.9 5.1 Imports of goods 7.6 6.0 -4.3 2.9 3.8 5.0 5.8 6.2 5.2 Imports of services 3.1 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 6.3 2.2 2.8 4.3 4.4 Current account balance3, in EUR million -43 68 930 1,732 2,325 1,998 2,700 2,326 2,272 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.1 0.2 2.6 4.8 6.2 5.2 6.7 5.6 5.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 42,123 41,669 42,872 41,658 46,314 44,723 43,515* As a per cent share relative to GDP 116.2 112.9 119.1 116.0 124.1 116.0 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.110 1.116 1.118 1.118 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.3 0.0 -2.5 -4.0 2.0 0.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 As a % of GDP 56.0 56.0 56.8 55.0 54.0 52.1 51.3 51.3 51.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.5 -0.7 -2.2 -2.1 -1.2 2.5 2.0 1.3 0.7 As a % of GDP 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.7 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.5 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -13.3 -4.9 -8.8 3.2 1.4 1.0 -4.0 6.0 5.0 As a % of GDP 21.3 20.2 19.3 20.0 19.6 19.5 18.2 19.0 19.7 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2015). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; *End September 2016. PRODUCTION 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -0.9 2.2 5.6 3.1 2.6 6.7 5.2 5.5 5.2 4.9 7.8 5.7 2.9 1.5 3.5 4.0 B Mining and quarrying 1.3 -3.8 0.4 -9.6 -28.1 0.4 -14.4 -1.9 23.3 8.6 -7.6 10.4 -4.5 -24.1 -52.5 -15.8 C Manufacturing -1.5 4.3 6.0 5.1 5.6 6.8 5.8 6.3 5.3 6.1 9.5 7.0 5.1 3.8 8.3 4.1 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 3.9 -14.2 2.5 -11.5 -16.1 5.8 2.4 -0.5 2.2 -6.6 -5.9 -6.6 -16.2 -13.7 -18.1 4.4 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -2.5 19.5 -8.1 19.8 -3.3 0.3 -8.9 -12.5 -8.3 -31.3 -21.4 -13.3 -1.8 -10.5 4.6 -2.7 Buildings -20.4 3.8 -4.0 8.0 -4.5 -5.3 -1.1 -5.6 -4.2 -6.6 -11.6 4.1 -5.2 -12.4 7.0 -0.3 Civil engineering 6.3 26.5 -9.8 25.1 -1.9 2.5 -11.5 -15.2 -10.0 -39.9 -24.9 -19.5 0.4 -8.6 4.4 -4.2 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total -0.7 3.7 5.4 5.4 2.2 3.7 4.2 5.0 8.4 5.0 4.2 4.0 2.8 0.6 3.2 0.7 Transportation and storage -0.1 6.2 3.2 7.0 4.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 5.2 3.8 4.4 3.6 2.5 2.4 8.9 -2.0 Information and communication activities 0.4 1.1 4.6 0.6 -0.5 1.4 1.7 4.5 10.2 3.7 4.2 3.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 Professional, scientific and technical activities -2.1 -1.8 3.5 6.6 -5.7 3.5 -0.4 2.6 7.7 0.8 0.9 -2.0 -0.5 -9.0 -7.1 2.8 Administrative and support service activities 3.7 2.5 11.6 1.8 10.1 14.2 15.5 9.7 8.0 12.5 6.6 9.1 8.8 9.6 12.0 13.4 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -0.9 2.4 5.7 5.8 2.6 4.9 6.8 4.5 6.6 9.0 9.0 8.6 2.9 0.7 4.2 2.0 Real turnover in retail trade -3.7 0.0 1.0 2.3 -0.7 0.7 1.4 0.4 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.8 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 -1.3 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 4.7 6.9 14.0 13.3 8.9 12.0 15.9 12.6 15.2 23.0 24.1 18.9 9.4 4.0 13.9 7.7 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -0.2 3.7 1.4 6.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.6 2.9 0.2 1.0 -0.4 1.6 0.1 -1.4 -6.8 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 0.3 -0.5 7.2 -3.4 3.9 6.8 7.0 9.1 3.3 9.6 0.9 9.0 6.0 -0.7 5.6 6.2 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -3.4 -3.5 6.3 -7.7 1.6 6.8 4.9 8.7 3.4 1.3 1.0 4.6 8.2 -0.7 -3.6 9.6 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.8 1.4 7.7 -1.4 5.6 6.9 8.2 9.3 3.2 17.4 0.8 10.9 4.5 -0.7 13.9 4.0 Accommodation and food service activities -1.3 0.2 7.4 -1.7 -1.1 5.0 6.6 8.5 9.3 9.7 8.1 13.2 0.5 -2.0 -1.9 6.0 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.4 506.9 472.9 132.5 138.0 102.5 111.3 123.6 135.5 104.6 110.1 118.2 47.4 40.9 49.7 34.1 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -13.3 -2.2 5.2 -0.1 1.3 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.8 3.7 4.6 5.9 1.8 0.6 1.5 3.6 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 2 6 3 3 7 5 6 6 5 6 5 2 2 4 5 - in construction -22 -11 -14 -10 -12 -10 -14 -17 -15 -17 -14 -7 -10 -13 -12 -12 - in services -12 5 16 7 11 15 16 16 18 17 19 19 11 12 11 12 - in retail trade 2 9 15 10 17 17 16 14 14 24 13 25 18 19 13 23 Consumer confidence indicator -33 -22 -11 -17 -17 -15 -10 -8 -12 -18 -17 -12 -13 -20 -17 -14 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2015 2016 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7.5 8.4 0.9 6.1 8.4 2.6 8.4 6.2 3.5 8.4 3.6 3.4 8.2 3.4 7.8 9.0 6.6 2.1 9.3 6.3 - - -5.2 29.3 -36.6 -0.8 6.8 11.4 9.3 -21.1 -10.8 27.4 77.5 9.5 7.0 9.3 -8.1 -5.9 -8.9 -24.1 9.8 50.5 - - 7.4 8.7 1.6 6.8 9.0 3.1 9.0 7.3 4.0 8.6 3.1 4.3 9.8 4.5 9.7 10.8 8.0 3.6 11.2 6.9 - - 9.2 4.1 2.1 0.6 4.7 -3.0 1.8 -0.1 2.6 3.6 0.7 -5.8 -6.0 -8.1 -7.4 -5.1 -5.3 -8.1 -6.1 -5.4 - - 6.0 -1.5 -6.9 -8.9 -10.5 -12.8 -13.8 -10.7 -11.6 7.0 -22.2 -25.9 -29.7 -36.0 -27.4 -19.5 -17.9 -15.8 -14.9 -9.2 - - -6.5 -8.2 -5.4 1.0 0.9 -2.9 -11.3 -1.7 -7.0 2.6 -8.1 -9.4 -2.8 -7.5 -12.3 -13.4 -9.4 6.6 1.3 4.6 - - 11.8 0.8 -7.5 -12.2 -14.3 -16.5 -15.1 -14.1 -13.2 8.5 -28.3 -32.2 -39.3 -45.1 -32.5 -21.7 -21.0 -23.7 -20.9 -14.1 - - 6.0 4.4 2.0 4.1 6.3 4.6 5.7 4.7 6.4 12.3 7.0 4.7 6.5 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.2 -0.2 5.7 6.4 - - 5.7 3.1 0.8 2.1 6.2 2.4 3.9 0.6 3.9 8.6 3.3 3.6 5.5 2.3 4.1 4.5 4.6 -3.5 5.8 8.8 3.2 2.0 2.9 0.3 1.8 2.2 4.8 6.6 4.6 15.0 10.9 3.2 3.5 4.4 3.5 3.8 5.3 0.2 2.8 5.9 5.8 2.1 -4.5 2.5 1.0 2.6 2.2 2.9 7.2 13.6 3.1 -0.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 2.9 -0.3 -5.3 3.6 -3.5 12.8 16.2 12.4 13.5 20.2 8.7 9.9 10.5 9.7 10.8 3.6 12.5 13.5 11.6 8.1 8.4 3.7 8.3 10.1 9.0 - - 6.4 6.4 2.7 8.1 9.8 3.5 4.9 5.1 3.8 7.8 8.3 6.0 13.3 7.9 8.5 10.8 7.8 5.1 13.7 7.6 - - 2.9 0.7 -0.9 2.5 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.8 2.8 0.8 3.7 2.0 0.4 1.5 4.1 1.1 5.4 1.9 - - 12.3 15.4 8.9 17.6 21.4 9.7 15.9 13.1 9.4 19.9 16.8 15.7 33.0 21.1 25.4 30.6 17.1 12.2 27.7 18.6 - - 3.4 4.4 -2.2 1.8 5.0 0.8 0.3 0.8 -2.1 5.6 5.9 -0.2 2.2 -1.1 -1.9 2.9 1.9 -5.9 5.2 0.3 - - 12.4 2.2 6.1 8.1 6.7 10.9 8.7 7.0 1.1 0.6 8.8 9.3 7.0 12.8 -0.4 2.5 0.4 8.1 6.9 14.6 - - 9.9 1.0 10.5 -2.9 7.4 8.3 10.2 6.4 0.9 5.0 5.1 6.8 2.7 -5.0 8.5 -0.5 -3.1 2.3 1.5 15.3 - - 15.7 3.2 3.7 14.2 6.3 12.1 8.1 7.3 1.2 -3.0 11.7 11.0 12.5 28.8 -5.7 3.9 2.3 10.9 9.2 14.3 - - 5.8 3.4 2.2 9.0 8.2 10.3 8.0 7.0 6.2 8.7 13.0 7.8 12.6 9.1 8.9 6.5 9.1 13.3 10.7 16.1 - - 32.1 36.3 37.1 37.0 37.2 43.3 36.2 44.2 49.0 40.3 46.2 33.7 34.2 36.7 36.0 37.3 36.8 39.1 36.3 42.9 - - 4.3 5.6 4.7 5.2 5 3.5 6.9 5.8 5.7 5.2 6.5 3.9 3.5 3.7 5.9 3.5 4.3 5.2 6.5 6.1 7 8 6 9 4 6 5 6 7 4 6 6 7 5 5 4 8 5 5 4 7 3 6 7 -10 -8 -14 -14 -13 -15 -15 -20 -16 -15 -15 -16 -15 -19 -15 -15 -13 -12 -8 -2 -3 -2 16 16 17 16 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 16 17 19 22 17 18 19 18 19 21 22 19 9 24 19 5 5 15 23 14 15 12 27 23 21 10 13 17 20 24 30 11 19 -17 -14 -12 -11 -6 -14 -5 -6 -11 -14 -10 -16 -19 -19 -17 -18 -16 -13 -12 -11 -11 -11 LABOUR MARKET 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 913.4 917.9 917.4 917.5 921.3 919.7 917.5 914.5 917.8 917.8 919.7 917.7 922.3 922.2 919.4 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 793.6 797.8 804.6 803.0 804.4 798.0 805.0 807.1 808.5 803.0 817.2 820.3 806.4 806.8 800.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.2 35.4 29.9 37.5 35.1 32.8 30.5 29.4 26.9 23.9 23.8 22.1 35.2 35.1 35.1 In industry, construction 252.2 252.4 255.2 254.1 253.8 250.4 255.2 257.3 257.9 254.7 260.7 262.5 255.5 255.5 250.4 Of which: in manufacturing 177.7 178.3 181.0 178.6 179.2 178.8 179.9 181.6 183.6 184.1 186.2 187.3 179.4 179.6 178.6 in construction 54.3 54.0 54.3 55.4 54.5 51.8 55.3 55.7 54.5 50.9 54.6 55.4 55.9 55.8 51.9 In services 503.2 510.0 519.6 511.4 515.5 514.9 519.3 520.4 523.7 524.4 532.7 535.7 515.7 516.2 514.5 Of which: in public administration 49.1 48.8 48.1 49.0 48.5 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.4 48.6 48.7 48.5 48.3 in education, health-services, social work 121.0 122.2 124.0 121.6 123.1 123.3 124.1 123.3 125.5 125.9 127.6 127.3 122.9 123.3 123.1 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 698.7 703.0 713.1 706.1 708.8 704.2 712.9 715.9 719.3 716.2 730.2 734.6 710.9 711.2 704.4 In enterprises and organisations 647.6 652.6 662.3 654.7 657.2 654.6 661.5 664.6 668.6 667.5 679.6 683.6 658.6 659.0 654.0 By those self-employed 51.1 50.5 50.8 51.3 51.6 49.7 51.4 51.4 50.6 48.7 50.7 51.0 52.3 52.2 50.4 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 94.8 91.6 97.0 95.6 93.8 92.1 91.1 89.2 86.9 87.0 85.8 95.5 95.6 95.5 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 119.8 120.1 112.7 114.5 116.9 121.6 112.5 107.4 109.3 114.8 102.5 97.4 115.9 115.4 119.5 Female 57.4 59.6 57.5 58.4 59.6 60.0 57.7 55.9 56.2 56.6 52.3 50.6 59.9 59.6 59.5 By age: 15 to 29 28.8 30.4 26.8 27.4 30.2 30.0 26.5 23.9 26.7 26.1 21.7 20.5 30.4 30.1 30.2 aged over 50 38.9 37.3 36.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 36.8 36.2 36.1 38.6 36.8 35.4 35.7 35.6 36.7 Primary education or less 34.2 33.8 32.3 32.1 32.8 35.3 32.0 30.5 31.2 33.8 30.0 28.2 32.0 32.1 34.4 For more than 1 year 55.4 59.9 59.7 59.1 59.7 61.1 60.1 59.1 58.4 58.5 56.0 53.5 59.5 59.6 60.1 Those receiving benefits 33.0 26.6 23.7 23.9 23.7 28.7 22.4 21.4 22.2 28.9 21.3 20.5 23.2 22.4 25.5 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 13.1 13.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 12.3 11.7 11.9 12.5 11.1 10.6 12.6 12.5 13.0 Male 12.5 12.0 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 11.0 10.3 10.7 11.8 10.1 9.4 11.1 11.1 12.0 Female 13.8 14.3 13.7 14.1 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.4 13.4 13.4 12.4 12.0 14.3 14.2 14.2 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 6.0 -4.6 -6.4 -4.8 6.9 -1.4 -7.9 -5.5 8.3 -2.9 -10.4 -4.7 3.3 -0.5 4.0 New unemployed first-job seekers 19.1 18.5 15.8 3.3 8.4 3.5 2.2 2.8 7.4 3.0 2.0 2.7 5.9 1.5 1.0 Redundancies 88.7 83.9 81.3 17.7 23.1 24.4 16.3 17.3 23.3 23.8 15.4 16.3 7.1 6.2 9.8 Registered unemployed who found employment 65.1 74.0 71.0 16.6 15.3 21.8 19.0 16.9 13.3 23.6 20.6 16.1 6.3 5.0 4.0 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 37.3 33.2 32.6 9.2 9.3 7.5 7.5 8.6 9.1 6.0 7.2 7.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 30.5 25.1 23.2 24.8 23.6 22.6 23.3 23.7 23.3 21.6 20.0 18.2 24.6 23.4 22.8 As % of labour force 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2015 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 918.5 919.9 920.6 917.9 917.3 917.3 915.0 913.6 914.8 917.9 918.8 916.7 916.2 918.0 919.4 919.3 919.9 919.8 916.9 916.6 919.6 794.3 797.4 802.5 803.0 804.9 807.1 805.5 805.6 810.1 810.4 811.4 803.6 798.0 801.9 809.2 813.9 817.6 820.0 817.8 818.7 824.4 32.6 32.7 33.0 30.5 30.5 30.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.7 22.2 22.1 22.2 249.1 249.9 252.2 254.2 255.1 256.2 256.5 256.9 258.4 259.6 259.8 254.3 252.7 254.1 257.4 259.7 260.7 261.7 262.1 262.0 263.5 178.5 178.8 179.1 179.3 179.9 180.6 180.9 181.3 182.5 183.6 184.1 183.0 183.2 184.1 184.9 185.6 186.2 186.8 186.8 187.1 188.1 50.9 51.3 53.2 55.0 55.3 55.6 55.5 55.6 56.0 56.1 55.7 51.6 49.8 50.2 52.7 54.2 54.6 55.0 55.3 55.2 55.7 512.6 514.7 517.3 518.2 519.2 520.4 519.5 519.4 522.3 523.8 524.8 522.5 521.4 524.0 527.8 530.4 533.2 534.6 533.5 534.6 538.8 48.0 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.0 48.3 48.2 48.3 48.2 47.9 48.3 48.0 47.9 48.1 48.3 48.3 48.4 48.5 48.5 48.6 48.7 122.6 123.4 123.9 124.0 124.1 124.1 122.8 122.6 124.5 125.2 125.7 125.5 125.0 125.8 126.8 127.4 127.7 127.8 126.5 126.5 128.8 701.0 703.6 708.2 710.9 712.7 714.9 714.3 714.6 718.8 721.2 722.1 714.5 711.3 715.0 722.2 727.0 730.6 733.0 732.2 733.1 738.4 651.8 654.3 657.6 659.6 661.3 663.5 663.0 663.3 667.4 669.7 670.9 665.3 663.2 666.7 672.6 676.6 679.9 682.2 681.4 682.2 687.3 49.1 49.3 50.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.4 51.2 49.2 48.2 48.3 49.6 50.4 50.7 50.8 50.8 50.9 51.2 93.3 93.8 94.3 92.0 92.2 92.1 91.2 91.0 91.3 89.3 89.2 89.1 86.7 86.9 87.0 86.9 87.0 87.0 85.6 85.7 86.0 124.3 122.6 118.1 114.9 112.4 110.2 109.6 107.9 104.8 107.5 107.4 113.1 118.2 116.0 110.2 105.5 102.3 99.8 99.1 97.9 95.1 60.9 59.9 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.8 56.9 56.4 54.6 56.2 55.8 56.6 57.9 56.9 54.9 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.4 51.0 49.4 30.8 30.2 29.0 27.7 26.4 25.4 24.8 23.9 22.9 26.2 26.9 26.9 27.3 26.4 24.7 22.9 21.5 20.5 20.1 19.6 21.8 38.1 37.9 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.3 35.7 35.6 35.6 37.2 39.1 38.9 37.9 37.2 36.8 36.3 36.0 35.6 34.7 36.1 35.9 33.9 32.7 31.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 30.1 30.3 30.4 33.0 34.6 34.3 32.4 30.8 30.0 29.2 28.6 28.2 27.9 61.5 61.0 60.8 60.3 59.9 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.9 58.8 58.2 58.2 59.2 58.5 57.8 56.6 56.1 55.4 54.3 53.6 52.7 29.4 29.4 27.3 23.1 22.4 21.8 21.8 21.5 20.8 20.6 20.7 25.3 30.2 29.5 26.9 22.1 21.3 20.7 21.2 20.1 20.2 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.7 12.3 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.3 12.6 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 11.4 12.2 11.9 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.1 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.5 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.7 4.8 -1.7 -4.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 -0.7 -1.6 -3.2 2.7 -0.1 5.7 5.1 -2.1 -5.8 -4.8 -3.2 -2.5 -0.7 -1.2 -2.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.4 5.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.4 12.5 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.3 6.5 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.5 10.3 12.9 5.7 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.0 6.1 4.8 5.4 6.2 6.5 9.0 7.3 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.7 7.0 5.4 4.8 3.1 6.7 6.9 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.7 5.0 4.3 6.8 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 22.6 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.2 23.3 23.6 24.1 23.8 23.3 22.8 22.1 21.8 21.0 20.3 20.3 19.5 19.0 18.2 17.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 WAGES EUR m 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2015 Q2 16 Aug 16 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,556 1,560 1,558 -0.2 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.7 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,506 1,498 1,490 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.0 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,708 1,753 1,772 -2.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.1 1.7 3.9 2.8 3.7 Industry (B–E) 1,555 1,549 1,540 2.6 3.1 1.7 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.3 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,381 1,366 1,362 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,679 1,665 1,650 -1.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.5 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,315 1,309 1,303 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.3 0.5 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 1.6 2.2 -0.8 0.7 B Mining and quarrying 2,003 2,081 2,071 -2.0 5.9 -5.9 10.7 2.0 -8.9 -4.8 -4.8 -4.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 C Manufacturing 1,515 1,508 1,501 2.8 3.3 2.1 3.1 3.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,317 2,315 2,258 3.0 2.6 -1.0 6.5 -0.1 -4.4 1.7 -3.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 0.0 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,496 1,507 1,506 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.7 F Constrution 1,189 1,209 1,209 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.9 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,415 1,404 1,404 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.0 H Transportation and storage 1,474 1,442 1,428 -0.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 3.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,070 1,083 1,077 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.1 2.0 0.3 1.0 J Information and communication 2,096 2,075 2,081 -1.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.6 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 -0.2 K Financial and insurance activities 2,259 2,245 2,179 0.1 1.2 2.1 -0.2 2.3 3.9 1.9 1.8 1.0 2.0 -0.1 1.9 L Real estate activities 1,480 1,459 1,471 -0.3 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -2.4 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,725 1,719 1,709 -2.4 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.2 0.8 1.7 0.5 -0.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 N Administrative and support service activities 1,020 1,045 1,036 0.0 2.4 0.4 2.6 1.2 0.3 -0.6 0.0 1.9 3.7 3.8 3.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,789 1,870 1,895 -1.4 1.0 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 5.2 6.8 4.3 5.4 P Education 1,648 1,670 1,705 -3.3 0.0 -0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 1.8 2.2 2.9 Q Human health and social work activities 1,708 1,748 1,742 -2.0 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.6 2.2 3.0 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,613 1,617 1,609 -3.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -1.6 0.3 1.6 2.4 1.7 S Other service activities 1,346 1,318 1,314 -0.4 -1.1 -2.2 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 -2.8 -2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.0 -1.0 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2015 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0.2 -0.3 1.6 0.8 -0.2 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 2.8 2.1 0.0 -0.7 1.9 1.1 -0.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 3.3 2.0 0.9 1.6 0.8 -1.0 2.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.6 3.1 4.4 0.2 -0.1 4.2 2.8 0.4 2.6 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 4.8 0.5 -0.2 4.4 2.5 0.2 2.7 1.9 -1.8 4.0 1.7 -0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.6 2.8 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 -0.7 1.3 0.9 -0.1 -2.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.0 0.6 -0.9 0.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.4 0.6 -0.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 1.5 0.5 -0.9 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 3.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -4.0 8.5 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.5 -0.9 1.3 -2.7 -0.2 2.7 -0.3 -4.0 -20.3 -0.5 -1.0 -5.5 -7.7 1.8 -9.6 -6.6 -4.2 -5.4 -5.1 -1.5 1.4 3.4 -3.9 -0.4 9.2 -6.6 10.1 4.9 0.3 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 4.7 2.4 0.5 2.9 1.6 -1.1 3.8 1.8 -0.4 -9.8 -2.8 3.5 0.9 0.6 5.7 -8.2 -6.0 -2.6 12.1 -4.5 -0.7 3.4 4.3 -2.4 1.7 6.5 -7.1 5.9 1.8 -0.2 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.6 0.6 3.1 1.2 1.0 2.1 4.3 0.1 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.3 3.7 2.6 -2.7 5.6 2.3 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 3.3 1.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.1 -0.4 4.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.2 2.9 1.3 1.2 4.2 1.9 3.3 1.1 0.6 -0.1 1.8 1.4 -0.5 1.6 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 -1.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.9 -2.2 0.7 -0.4 -2.4 -3.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.7 -0.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 -0.2 1.5 3.3 1.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.5 6.5 -1.4 -0.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.0 -0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.7 1.5 -0.6 -1.9 1.8 -0.5 8.5 -1.8 5.1 2.7 -1.6 4.8 1.1 2.9 1.3 -2.9 3.0 3.0 -2.4 5.8 2.9 1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.6 3.6 1.4 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 1.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 2.3 -0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.9 -0.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 2.5 -1.1 -1.4 1.5 -0.3 -0.9 2.7 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.0 -0.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.2 3.2 2.6 3.9 2.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.8 4.1 9.7 7.3 7.0 6.2 5.3 3.6 4.0 4.9 4.8 6.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.5 0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 2.6 3.7 4.0 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.1 3.6 -0.5 -1.4 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.8 0.4 1.0 -0.4 1.5 2.1 1.3 4.9 1.1 1.3 2.4 0.2 2.6 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 -2.1 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 -0.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.3 -1.9 0.0 -1.1 PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 3.6 -0.3 0.9 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 1.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 7.0 3.6 1.9 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.1 Clothing and footwear 0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 -1.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.6 -1.7 -1.7 -2.6 -0.5 1.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas 3.1 0.1 -1.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -1.5 Furnishings, household equipment -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -0.4 -0.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 -2.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 Medical, pharmaceutical products -0.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 Transport 0.3 0.2 -5.1 -0.1 -0.9 -4.5 -4.4 -5.3 -6.3 -5.4 -4.8 -3.1 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2 -4.8 Communications -1.2 -1.9 1.1 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -1.3 1.7 4.3 4.0 5.2 2.6 -3.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 Recreation and culture 0.1 0.8 1.0 -0.2 3.0 4.2 1.5 0.3 -1.6 -2.0 0.8 1.7 1.8 3.0 4.2 4.1 Education 2.6 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 Catering services 6.5 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 -3.6 5.8 0.9 HCPI 1.9 0.4 -0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.4 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -1.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 Domestic market 0.3 -1.1 -0.5 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 Non-domestic market -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -2.0 -2.6 -1.2 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 euro area -0.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.1 -1.3 -2.3 -2.5 -1.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 non-euro area 0.3 1.1 -0.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -2.6 0.1 1.8 0.9 -0.8 -0.6 Import price indices -0.4 -1.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.3 -1.7 -0.5 -0.9 -2.3 -1.5 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.2 -1.9 -9.9 -1.5 -1.0 -9.0 -7.5 -10.7 -12.6 -13.2 -10.6 -6.8 0.5 0.7 -4.0 -9.8 Oil products 1.7 0.7 -12.4 1.7 -2.0 -11.9 -9.6 -13.1 -15.1 -13.8 -12.3 -7.9 -0.2 -0.1 -5.7 -13.2 Transport & communications 11.3 11.1 0.3 7.3 7.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.3 7.3 7.3 1.1 Other controlled prices2 -1.5 3.6 1.6 3.2 3.2 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.4 Direct control – total 1.2 0.5 -8.5 0.4 -0.1 -7.5 -6.4 -9.2 -11.1 -11.3 -9.2 -5.9 1.2 1.2 -2.6 -8.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS3, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,4 nominal 1.0 0.3 -2.8 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.9 0.5 1.4 0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -2.2 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -0.1 -3.8 -0.7 -1.4 -3.6 -4.8 -3.4 -3.1 -0.7 0.8 0.2 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -2.6 Real (deflator ULC) -0.2 -1.8 -4.0 -2.2 -1.5 -4.3 -3.5 -2.4 -2.1 0.7 0.9 USD / EUR 1.3282 1.3288 1.1096 1.3252 1.2492 1.1270 1.1047 1.1119 1.0949 1.1018 1.1293 1.1164 1.2673 1.2472 1.2331 1.1621 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 3 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 4 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 19 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2015 2016 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.2 0.6 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 2.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 -1.4 -0.9 -2.8 1.8 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 -4.6 -4.0 -5.1 -4.0 -4.2 -4.5 -4.8 -6.5 -6.7 -7.0 -5.2 -4.5 -5.5 -6.2 -5.2 -5.3 -4 -3.8 -4.5 -0.9 -1 1.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 5.3 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.2 6 2.3 2.2 3.4 2 4.1 4.3 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 -0.8 -1.8 -2.3 -1.8 -2.4 -1.9 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 6.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -2.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7 -1.9 -2.4 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -2.0 -3.4 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 -0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 -3.1 -2.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -1.4 0.1 -9.4 -7.6 -8.5 -6.7 -7.4 -9.0 -10.3 -12.9 -13.2 -13.5 -11.0 -11.2 -13.7 -14.5 -11.3 -11.6 -8.8 -8.5 -9.0 -3.0 -2.1 -12.3 -10.2 -11.5 -8.4 -8.8 -10.9 -12.6 -15.8 -16.0 -16.1 -13.2 -11.5 -14.3 -15.6 -12.1 -13.7 -11.0 -10.4 -10.2 -3.2 -2.4 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.7 5.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -7.9 -6.2 -7.4 -5.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.6 -11.3 -11.5 -11.8 -9.8 -9.6 -11.7 -12.6 -9.7 -10.1 -7.7 -7.4 -7.8 -2.4 -1.5 -2.9 -4.2 -4.5 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 -2.5 -1.7 -1.6 -2.3 -1.8 -0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 -3.5 -4.7 -5.4 -4.8 -4.3 -4.2 -3.3 -2.8 -3.0 -3.6 -2.8 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1350 1.0838 1.0779 1.1150 1.1213 1.100 1.1139 1.1221 1.1235 1.0736 1.0877 1.086 1.1093 1.110 1.134 1.131 1.123 1.107 1.121 1.121 1.1026 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 1,732 2,325 1,998 642 582 435 462 641 460 713 757 743 337 297 91 195 Goods 708 1,181 1,498 305 312 348 382 424 344 480 466 412 204 176 42 93 Exports 21,692 22,961 24,039 5,716 5,984 5,881 6,063 5,934 6,160 6,066 6,398 6,128 2,140 2,164 1,996 1,825 Imports 20,984 21,780 22,541 5,411 5,672 5,533 5,681 5,510 5,817 5,585 5,932 5,716 1,936 1,987 1,953 1,731 Services 1,732 1,697 2,019 566 386 394 524 609 492 471 557 693 161 127 126 133 Exports 5,317 5,558 6,025 1,596 1,402 1,260 1,511 1,730 1,524 1,374 1,558 1,861 501 478 419 505 Imports 3,586 3,862 4,006 1,030 1,015 866 987 1,121 1,032 903 1,001 1,168 340 352 292 372 Primary income -192 -125 -982 -139 -45 -114 -331 -285 -252 -81 -171 -208 -13 6 -49 -3 Receipts 1,117 1,396 1,632 311 350 437 417 371 407 485 379 377 99 94 110 145 Expenditures 1,309 1,521 2,614 450 395 551 748 656 659 566 550 585 112 88 159 148 Secondary income -516 -428 -537 -89 -71 -193 -113 -107 -124 -158 -96 -154 -15 -12 -30 -29 Receipts 632 709 725 162 188 153 184 173 215 155 171 173 55 72 53 62 Expenditures 1,148 1,137 1,262 251 258 346 296 280 339 312 267 326 70 85 83 90 Capital account 187 157 371 141 -90 46 62 127 136 -39 -112 -63 33 68 46 -204 Financial account 1,042 2,377 1,772 745 476 569 557 478 168 464 281 504 416 103 156 217 Direct investment -47 -584 -1,238 -365 186 -348 -45 -218 -628 -323 -262 -223 -196 31 44 111 Assets 24 155 278 -57 20 93 301 23 -140 143 19 28 -6 126 6 -112 Liabilities 71 739 1,516 308 -166 441 346 241 488 466 282 251 190 95 -38 -223 Portfolio investment -4,176 -3,968 2,929 76 264 689 1,684 -993 1,549 584 791 528 286 429 -662 497 Financial derivatives 32 -3 28 2 7 22 5 -9 10 -7 -4 31 0 10 -4 2 Other investment 5,227 6,843 166 1,106 22 226 -1,110 1,746 -697 199 -203 218 378 -354 742 -366 Assets 632 4,815 -672 374 671 434 -1,478 1,225 -853 108 -580 -1,130 99 -245 567 349 Other equity 152 84 10 1 -1 10 1 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 Currency and deposits 564 5,037 -545 469 1,089 90 -1,272 1,273 -636 -272 -522 -1,031 62 -369 690 768 Loans 1 -299 -408 -98 -75 -80 -224 -27 -78 10 -68 -48 -30 1 -32 -44 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes -10 8 -8 -4 -2 12 -3 -15 -2 7 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 Trade credit and advances 19 -16 -4 -51 -252 341 27 -15 -357 314 119 -72 114 101 -30 -323 Other assets -94 1 283 57 -87 60 -7 8 222 49 -110 22 -46 22 -60 -49 Liabilities -4,595 -2,028 -837 -732 649 208 -369 -521 -156 -91 -376 -1,348 -278 109 -175 715 Other equity -29 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits -4,169 -831 -400 21 278 -178 -301 -37 116 453 -415 -564 -52 16 -17 278 Loans -269 -1,246 -315 -691 107 378 -82 -376 -235 -491 -114 -564 -270 -52 -70 230 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 39 -54 3 -2 -10 -7 4 2 4 10 12 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 Trade credit and advances -182 -144 -101 -46 36 9 3 -122 9 -78 151 -175 63 87 -31 -21 Other liabilities 16 240 -25 -13 238 5 7 12 -49 15 -12 -46 -19 61 -54 231 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets 5 89 -113 -74 -3 -20 23 -49 -67 10 -40 -50 -52 -14 38 -27 Net errors and omissions -877 -105 -596 -39 -16 88 33 -290 -428 -210 -363 -176 47 -262 20 225 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,163 2,343 2,596 573 629 581 632 630 753 646 687 N/A 205 226 202 201 Intermediate goods 12,425 12,924 13,355 3,237 3,202 3,280 3,406 3,348 3,322 3,368 3,548 N/A 1,187 1,195 1,099 909 Consumer goods 6,960 7,668 7,989 1,887 2,134 2,003 2,040 1,904 2,042 2,058 2,177 N/A 750 729 707 698 Import of investment goods 2,573 2,774 2,968 635 796 658 713 720 877 722 825 N/A 223 267 272 257 Intermediate goods 13,635 13,417 13,803 3,366 3,403 3,453 3,541 3,376 3,432 3,346 3,539 N/A 1,204 1,200 1,195 1,008 Consumer goods 5,906 6,389 6,534 1,603 1,657 1,604 1,637 1,592 1,701 1,692 1,755 N/A 580 593 554 511 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2015 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 164 41 230 85 174 203 236 123 282 220 212 27 231 163 319 232 214 311 210 156 376 94 35 219 7 122 253 198 -5 231 183 172 -11 163 145 172 143 120 203 152 15 245 1,817 1,867 2,196 1,942 1,950 2,172 2,146 1,595 2,193 2,177 2,116 1,867 1,841 2,026 2,199 2,091 2,103 2,204 2,078 1,748 2,302 1,723 1,832 1,977 1,935 1,828 1,919 1,947 1,600 1,962 1,995 1,944 1,878 1,678 1,881 2,026 1,948 1,983 2,001 1,926 1,733 2,057 140 102 152 216 163 145 186 236 187 183 150 159 153 116 201 187 183 187 191 262 240 399 395 466 523 486 502 586 603 541 508 471 545 423 442 509 507 503 548 606 656 599 258 293 314 307 323 357 400 367 354 325 321 386 270 325 308 320 320 362 416 394 359 -25 6 -95 -97 -60 -174 -103 -75 -106 -119 -67 -66 -65 -14 -2 -66 -52 -53 -76 -77 -56 148 184 105 120 135 162 128 108 135 122 118 167 114 171 200 125 127 127 119 127 131 173 178 200 217 196 335 231 183 241 241 185 234 179 185 202 191 179 180 195 204 186 -45 -102 -45 -41 -50 -22 -45 -33 -29 -27 -43 -54 -21 -84 -53 -33 -38 -25 -56 -45 -53 46 53 54 61 53 70 61 53 59 76 60 78 55 52 47 60 54 57 59 56 58 91 156 100 102 103 92 106 85 89 103 103 132 76 136 100 93 91 83 115 100 111 28 6 12 25 7 29 55 38 33 79 62 -5 -7 -17 -15 -35 -39 -37 -8 -17 -38 539 -19 49 41 163 353 141 15 323 145 471 -448 235 153 76 -38 171 148 418 -91 177 1 -73 -276 -187 -26 169 -50 -76 -91 -387 -9 -232 -237 72 -158 -358 51 45 -25 -202 4 63 59 -29 43 83 175 73 -56 7 67 -8 -199 27 72 44 16 18 -15 127 -118 19 62 132 247 231 110 6 123 20 98 454 1 33 264 0 203 375 -34 -60 152 84 14 193 296 200 1,070 339 275 -1,044 -151 202 491 526 532 373 1,040 -829 477 197 116 321 302 -94 -6 20 7 2 0 3 -3 -6 0 0 -3 14 -6 0 -1 8 2 -13 30 1 1 326 -186 85 -800 -162 -148 1,229 271 246 19 1 -718 77 -988 1,110 -136 -81 14 111 -173 281 541 -213 107 -1,053 -153 -273 1,091 -141 275 170 187 -1,210 -118 -245 471 -976 39 357 -56 -944 -130 2 3 6 3 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 462 -343 -29 -863 -230 -179 1,093 32 148 111 176 -923 -117 -393 238 -891 132 237 -3 -736 -292 -8 -49 -22 -45 -18 -160 -4 -27 4 -20 -13 -45 -11 -22 43 -31 -38 2 -21 -19 -8 4 4 4 -1 -1 -1 -5 -5 -5 -1 -1 -1 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 17 126 198 -84 65 45 14 -143 114 15 42 -414 71 117 125 -3 5 117 -34 -202 164 63 46 -50 -63 33 22 -8 1 14 65 -18 175 -63 51 62 -51 -59 1 2 13 7 214 -28 22 -253 9 -125 -138 -412 29 151 185 -492 -195 743 -639 -840 120 343 -166 -771 -411 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -89 -65 -24 -112 -170 -18 63 13 -114 112 66 -62 8 765 -320 -766 155 197 20 -418 -166 664 -225 -61 3 175 -259 -58 -361 43 -37 167 -365 15 -256 -250 -87 -100 73 -109 -322 -133 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 4 4 4 0 0 0 -365 228 146 -168 23 148 -173 -31 81 45 -4 -32 -252 132 43 -2 76 77 -69 -139 33 7 36 -38 23 -20 4 29 -34 18 30 -44 -35 32 98 -115 11 -14 -8 -8 107 -145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 -76 32 -43 12 54 9 -23 -35 21 -43 -45 27 28 -45 -29 2 -13 -18 -18 -15 346 -65 -193 -69 -19 121 -151 -146 7 -155 197 -470 12 7 -228 -235 -3 -125 216 -230 -161 169 192 220 204 212 216 232 167 231 246 243 264 177 222 247 226 229 232 230 189 N/A 1,030 1,061 1,189 1,142 1,095 1,169 1,207 935 1,206 1,219 1,160 944 1,062 1,125 1,181 1,179 1,173 1,196 1,117 1,011 N/A 607 625 771 615 658 767 696 471 737 701 694 646 602 687 769 692 699 787 724 533 N/A 193 210 255 240 232 241 248 210 262 271 283 322 206 237 278 276 262 286 302 223 N/A 1,092 1,136 1,224 1,231 1,133 1,177 1,200 976 1,201 1,205 1,161 1,067 1,044 1,119 1,183 1,139 1,211 1,188 1,136 995 N/A 494 533 577 537 527 573 568 459 565 590 565 546 483 582 627 595 575 585 549 552 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 233 263 2,327 228 229 230 230 237 246 263 265 282 445 642 Central government (S. 1311) 6,563 7,240 7,112 6,296 6,459 6,512 6,581 6,936 7,010 7,240 7,443 7,502 7,163 7,368 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 581 685 622 582 594 596 606 611 618 685 654 631 633 633 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,917 8,762 8,856 8,810 8,808 8,814 8,813 8,807 8,791 8,762 8,842 8,802 8,834 8,826 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 14,902 11,729 10,502 14,039 13,867 13,764 13,586 12,603 12,511 11,729 11,823 11,726 11,674 11,569 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 1,763 1,485 1,432 1,921 1,881 1,858 1,873 1,665 1,654 1,485 1,463 1,455 1,642 1,519 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,020 3,684 3,206 3,896 4,347 4,108 3,732 4,037 3,915 3,684 3,657 3,696 3,479 3,353 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 29,620 25,155 23,816 27,756 28,005 27,645 27,220 26,425 26,191 25,155 25,232 25,179 24,885 24,707 In foreign currency 1,097 950 824 1,019 1,010 1,011 994 986 973 950 1,059 1,003 983 957 Securities, total 7,026 7,469 7,059 6,763 6,933 6,987 6,968 7,240 7,326 7,469 7,576 7,615 7,539 7,566 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,051 25,843 25,885 26,577 27,060 26,869 26,318 26,492 26,309 25,843 25,930 25,800 25,389 25,884 Overnight 8,558 10,157 12,717 9,582 10,236 10,138 9,870 10,329 10,398 10,157 10,731 10,947 10,842 11,200 With agreed maturity – short-term 6,689 5,955 4,481 6,768 6,876 6,928 6,720 6,477 6,250 5,955 5,708 5,610 5,350 5,302 With agreed maturity – long-term 11,569 9,267 8,196 9,875 9,585 9,368 9,265 9,172 9,155 9,267 9,078 8,838 8,762 8,916 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 235 464 491 352 363 435 463 514 506 464 413 405 435 466 Deposits in foreign currency, total 487 510 655 508 510 516 538 528 535 510 566 604 601 585 Overnight 324 354 508 350 345 354 354 348 353 354 401 447 442 433 With agreed maturity – short-term 91 84 80 90 96 92 115 110 110 84 86 77 81 75 With agreed maturity – long-term 72 72 67 68 69 70 69 70 72 72 79 80 78 77 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 1.86 0.98 0.37 1.00 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.74 0.66 0.58 0.51 0.46 0.39 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.40 5.06 3.54 4.84 5.2 5.01 5.09 4.65 4.72 4.38 4.17 4.85 3.34 3.49 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 3.86 4.25 2.46 1.53 5.05 2.82 .. 4.66 3.07 4.50 3.89 2.40 3.39 4.58 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 0.54 0.16 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.221 0.210 -0.019 0.241 0.205 0.192 0.097 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.063 0.048 0.027 0.005 6-month rates 0.336 0.309 0.054 0.333 0.305 0.292 0.200 0.184 0.182 0.177 0.152 0.126 0.097 0.073 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.020 0.012 -0.755 0.012 0.013 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.006 -0.020 -0.466 -0.889 -0.802 -0.812 6-month rates 0.080 0.066 -0.688 0.069 0.072 0.073 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.023 -0.403 -0.773 -0.707 -0.727 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 2015 2016 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 838 1,045 1,299 1,488 1699 1,942 2,175 2,327 2,539 2,759 2,987 3,144 3,378 3,631 3,861 4,012 4,219 4,390 7,380 7,387 7,449 7,445 7,301 7,380 7,387 7,112 7,212 6,957 7,022 6,739 6,853 6,813 6,861 6,850 6,872 6,769 633 635 634 631 624 623 618 622 630 614 601 602 594 591 589 587 571 564 8,847 8,836 8,821 8,812 8,825 8,873 8,857 8,856 8,815 8,789 8,830 8,863 8,891 8,920 8,892 8,930 8,974 9,041 11,493 11,396 11,190 11,137 10,941 10,819 10,688 10,502 10,527 10,046 9,904 9,953 9,870 9,771 9,706 9,520 9,455 9,485 1,511 1,466 1,470 1,405 1,435 1,417 1,411 1,432 1,422 1,328 1,397 1,326 1,332 1,298 1,298 1,283 1,310 1,352 3,365 3,007 3,181 3,442 3,312 3,904 3,713 3,206 3,574 4,030 3,318 3,727 3,572 3,240 3,578 3,625 3,610 3,642 24,661 24,240 24,316 24,469 24078 24,532 24,226 23,789 24,152 24,088 23,407 23,796 23,552 23,026 23,272 23,149 23,171 23,314 955 937 904 874 845 839 839 823 794 802 778 758 751 759 743 717 714 711 7,574 7,512 7,486 7,494 7,478 7,606 7,568 7,079 7,178 6,795 6,812 6,580 6,735 6,777 6,836 6,848 6,823 6,743 25,894 25,715 25,974 26,073 25,652 26,330 26,442 25,885 26,315 26,067 25,869 25,689 25,697 25,364 25,725 25,643 25,612 25,811 11,458 11,533 12,080 12,278 12,130 12,991 13,244 12,717 13,255 13,553 13,405 13,504 13,668 13,819 14,274 14,475 14,365 14,505 5,217 5,032 4,896 4,743 4,664 4,341 4,325 4,481 4,393 4,251 4,174 3,984 3,942 3,777 3,697 3,507 3,571 3,584 8,707 8,574 8,411 8,513 8,349 8,410 8,322 8,196 8,148 7,702 7,595 7,572 7,390 7,110 7,077 7,040 7,047 7,084 512 576 587 539 509 588 551 491 519 561 695 629 697 658 677 621 629 638 612 620 616 616 623 618 651 655 674 687 686 658 684 708 683 686 705 680 464 469 468 475 484 478 498 508 529 544 550 529 553 561 540 550 565 549 71 77 73 69 71 71 82 80 79 78 75 69 70 86 82 75 81 72 77 74 75 72 68 69 71 67 66 65 61 60 61 61 61 61 59 59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.37 0.36 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.19 3.50 3.39 3.38 3.36 3.34 3.39 3.14 3.16 3.06 2.91 2.75 2.71 2.57 2.54 2.62 2.45 2.53 .. .. 1.90 .. 0.81 1.71 .. 1.00 0.75 .. 1.85 2.58 3.84 2.16 .. .. 1.40 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.010 -0.014 -0.019 -0.028 -0.037 -0.054 -0.088 -0.126 -0.146 -0.184 -0.229 -0.249 -0.257 -0.268 -0.295 -0.298 -0.302 -0.309 0.057 0.049 0.049 0.044 0.035 0.020 -0.015 -0.040 -0.061 -0.115 -0.134 -0.138 -0.145 -0.162 -0.188 -0.189 -0.199 -0.207 -0.791 -0.782 -0.762 -0.729 -0.729 -0.728 -0.784 -0.792 -0.752 -0.775 -0.760 -0.727 -0.734 -0.763 -0.766 -0.743 -0.741 -0.730 -0.704 -0.711 -0.710 -0.681 -0.672 -0.674 -0.754 -0.737 -0.685 -0.723 -0.698 -0.653 -0.646 -0.676 -0.688 -0.658 -0.647 -0.647 PUBLIC FINANCE 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2 3 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,728.2 15,492.0 14,401.6 3,686.5 4,268.4 2,323.3 3,972.6 3,864.3 4,241.4 3,685.5 4,108.3 3,883.8 1,075.2 1,248.1 Current revenues 13,637.4 14,377.0 13,425.9 3,501.4 3,770.7 2,136.9 3,756.8 3,596.3 3,935.9 3,511.5 3,948.3 3,802.1 998.9 1,138.0 Tax revenues 12,648.4 13,191.6 12,524.8 3,237.5 3,491.3 2,030.8 3,524.1 3,277.4 3,692.4 3,344.3 3,659.7 3,516.4 945.9 1,084.9 Taxes on income and profit 2,137.4 2,385.9 2,377.0 466.3 637.7 394.1 786.4 504.0 692.5 634.2 811.4 542.4 202.6 191.5 Social security contributions 5,127.2 5,272.5 5,019.4 1,300.7 1,365.3 884.9 1,353.4 1,357.7 1,423.3 1,395.1 1,423.5 1,424.2 440.4 444.5 Taxes on payroll and workforce 23.4 20.2 18.1 4.7 5.4 3.0 4.9 4.6 5.6 4.8 5.1 4.8 1.4 1.5 Taxes on property 254.1 244.2 226.8 100.3 96.2 15.8 41.7 85.2 84.1 27.2 46.3 104.5 10.0 5.8 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,027.4 5,191.2 4,842.3 1,350.5 1,369.7 741.1 1,322.2 1,305.9 1,473.1 1,233.7 1,365.4 1,430.5 361.2 379.9 Taxes on international trade & transactions 77.5 77.7 76.6 18.5 21.1 15.4 21.5 20.2 19.6 22.3 19.8 20.8 6.2 9.1 Other taxes 1.3 -0.2 -35.4 -3.5 -4.1 -23.5 -6.0 -0.2 -5.8 27.0 -11.7 -10.8 -76.0 52.5 Non-tax revenues 989.0 1,185.4 901.1 264.0 279.4 106.1 232.7 318.8 243.5 167.2 288.6 285.7 53.0 53.1 Capital revenues 67.1 51.4 93.0 13.1 17.8 7.5 16.2 26.2 43.2 14.7 17.5 21.0 3.7 3.8 Grants 32.7 18.9 11.8 4.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 4.7 3.4 1.3 1.8 5.7 0.8 1.1 Transferred revenues 52.7 4.5 20.5 0.5 2.4 1.1 0.3 19.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 50.0 0.0 1.1 Receipts from the EU budget 938.4 1,040.3 850.4 167.2 475.2 175.8 197.5 217.9 259.1 157.3 140.8 4.9 71.6 104.2 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,286.4 16,751.2 15,533.9 4,009.3 4,498.5 2,868.0 3,980.9 3,974.9 4,710.0 4,223.2 3,882.3 3,985.7 1,402.6 1,465.5 Current expenditures 6,838.4 7,042.1 6,530.5 1,581.3 1,845.9 1,331.8 1,678.3 1,608.5 1,912.0 1,977.9 1,774.4 1,733.1 619.2 712.6 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,616.7 3,610.4 3,294.3 883.3 898.9 607.7 903.4 875.0 908.2 924.5 969.8 927.5 303.1 304.6 Expenditures on goods and services 2,238.9 2,232.3 2,156.7 546.9 615.6 348.0 558.9 546.1 703.7 536.4 553.5 570.2 147.4 200.6 Interest payments 840.1 1,097.4 899.8 131.0 292.6 354.5 178.4 148.0 218.9 489.5 181.5 206.1 159.3 195.2 Reserves 142.6 102.1 179.7 20.1 38.9 21.5 37.6 39.5 81.1 27.5 69.6 29.2 9.4 12.1 Current transfers 7,671.3 7,591.9 6,864.0 1,883.4 1,876.1 1,260.4 1,863.9 1,899.4 1,840.3 1,974.0 1,896.3 1,918.9 619.9 640.5 Subsidies 519.5 467.4 320.7 71.3 110.2 122.9 79.1 47.7 71.0 186.4 78.5 43.1 103.0 19.9 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,343.1 6,335.0 5,855.0 1,621.1 1,552.3 1,048.4 1,592.7 1,657.7 1,556.2 1,604.7 1,619.4 1,679.2 516.7 531.7 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 734.2 714.3 638.1 173.2 188.8 80.9 180.5 186.0 190.7 167.5 179.3 186.8 -3.8 84.7 Current transfers abroad 74.4 75.2 50.2 17.8 24.7 8.2 11.6 8.1 22.3 15.4 19.2 9.8 4.0 4.2 Capital expenditures 1,031.8 1,444.4 1,456.2 414.6 578.2 111.4 285.2 350.4 709.1 98.6 115.4 213.5 43.5 67.9 Capital transfers 319.5 270.0 284.8 67.9 116.2 27.7 58.7 60.8 137.5 32.9 26.9 23.7 17.0 10.6 Payments to the EU budget 425.5 402.9 398.6 62.2 82.1 136.8 94.8 55.8 111.2 139.9 69.3 96.6 102.9 33.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,558.2 -1,259.2 -1,132.3 -322.8 -230.0 -544.8 -8.4 -110.6 -468.6 -537.7 226.1 -327.4 -217.4 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2015 2016 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1,440.0 1,197.2 1,335.3 1,310.4 1,325.9 1,227.9 1,429.6 1,388.0 1,423.9 1,329.1 1,178.8 1,177.5 1,352.7 1,391.5 1,364.1 1,161.0 1,390.6 1,332.2 1,327.2 1,151.4 1,278.2 1,199.6 1,260.8 1,135.8 1,367.4 1,245.3 1,323.2 1,234.0 1,132.1 1,145.4 1,299.8 1,297.5 1,351.0 1,152.4 1,382.0 1,267.7 1,272.4 1,036.3 1,215.5 1,087.8 1,153.6 1,036.0 1,287.9 1,178.2 1,226.3 1,176.4 1,080.9 1,086.9 1,244.9 1,217.0 1,197.8 1,096.1 1,233.4 1,186.9 323.0 187.7 275.7 81.3 210.2 212.5 206.9 228.6 257.0 214.8 212.6 206.8 219.0 289.0 303.4 63.8 270.6 208.1 455.0 449.0 449.4 456.2 451.3 450.3 453.5 457.4 512.4 465.0 460.6 469.4 473.5 478.6 471.4 482.7 461.3 480.3 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 9.0 11.9 20.9 25.5 29.4 30.3 32.8 30.3 21.0 11.6 9.0 6.6 6.2 12.0 28.1 29.7 35.1 39.7 482.1 375.3 464.8 517.4 443.3 345.1 582.2 454.4 436.5 462.9 393.8 376.9 469.4 502.9 393.0 507.2 472.8 450.4 8.0 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.5 7.3 5.8 6.5 6.7 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.2 6.4 5.5 7.8 7.5 -6.5 4.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.4 -10.2 3.3 0.0 -9.1 13.7 -4.5 17.8 68.0 -73.4 -6.3 5.5 -15.9 -0.5 54.8 115.1 62.7 111.8 107.3 99.7 79.5 67.1 96.9 57.5 51.2 58.5 54.9 80.5 153.2 56.3 148.6 80.8 4.5 4.2 7.5 11.1 6.7 8.3 9.6 19.9 13.6 4.8 6.0 3.9 6.5 4.7 6.3 7.1 5.6 8.3 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 3.9 0.1 0.7 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 107.1 41.3 49.1 80.2 57.8 79.9 52.3 122.5 84.3 90.2 40.4 26.8 45.8 88.4 6.6 1.2 1.7 2.0 1,335.7 1,296.4 1,348.8 1,406.9 1,263.5 1,304.6 1,439.9 1,410.3 1,859.8 1,302.6 1,416.7 1,504.0 1,259.9 1,306.9 1,315.5 1,374.6 1,313.5 1,297.7 573.6 546.3 558.3 529.9 525.5 553.1 634.1 574.1 703.9 617.6 641.3 719.0 575.1 592.2 607.1 548.1 597.9 587.1 287.1 290.1 326.2 295.9 287.5 291.5 296.1 296.5 315.6 305.6 308.1 310.9 299.3 305.0 365.4 309.1 313.3 305.1 179.7 165.6 213.6 200.0 172.4 173.7 181.7 190.2 331.9 157.9 178.5 200.0 167.9 198.1 187.5 183.5 205.3 181.4 97.8 73.4 7.1 22.5 52.7 72.8 141.5 72.5 5.0 143.6 145.0 200.9 98.2 77.5 5.7 45.0 69.7 91.4 9.0 17.2 11.4 11.6 12.9 15.0 14.8 14.9 51.4 10.5 9.7 7.3 9.6 11.5 48.5 10.4 9.6 9.2 614.0 617.0 632.9 728.3 584.5 586.6 581.8 601.2 657.3 615.9 654.7 703.4 621.6 642.4 632.3 717.6 602.0 599.2 10.9 29.5 38.7 17.8 14.4 15.5 14.0 15.6 41.4 30.6 54.2 101.7 12.4 46.2 19.9 10.4 11.2 21.5 542.4 520.7 529.6 636.7 510.8 510.1 507.5 517.8 531.0 529.0 534.0 541.6 542.2 535.1 542.2 635.2 528.1 516.0 56.0 62.1 62.4 71.4 58.4 56.2 57.8 54.1 78.8 47.4 63.7 56.4 55.0 56.9 67.4 66.4 62.0 58.4 4.6 4.8 2.2 2.4 0.8 4.8 2.5 13.8 6.1 8.9 2.8 3.7 12.1 4.1 2.9 5.6 0.8 3.4 93.1 83.3 108.8 116.0 111.6 122.8 166.9 153.2 389.0 25.8 34.3 38.5 33.2 37.3 45.0 70.4 75.7 67.4 20.3 14.4 24.1 16.0 16.6 28.2 29.7 40.7 67.1 9.8 14.4 8.7 9.4 5.9 11.6 7.5 6.6 9.6 34.7 35.4 24.8 16.6 25.3 13.8 27.5 41.2 42.5 33.6 71.9 34.4 20.6 29.2 19.5 30.9 31.3 34.3 104.4 -99.2 -13.6 -96.5 62.5 -76.6 -10.4 -22.3 -435.9 26.5 -237.9 -326.4 92.8 84.7 48.6 -213.6 77.0 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, CPI – Consumer Price Index, EBA - European Banking Authority, EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EK – European Commission, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European Union, EUR – Euro, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, FED – Federal Reserve System, HICP –Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IC – Interest Coverage, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IEA – International Energy Agency, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, MF – Ministry of Finance, MGRT – Ministry of Economic Developement and Technology, MSP – micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. MZI – Ministry of Infrastructure, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OPEC – Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PDII – Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI – Purchasing Managers Index, PPI – Producer Price Index, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SITC – Standard International Trade Classification, SKD – Standard Classification of Activities, SMA – Securities Market Agency, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, TSA – Treasury Single Account, UL – Official Gazette , ULC – Unit Labour Costs, USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added tax. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18– Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20– Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29– Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30– Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D– Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E– Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J – Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. No. 8, Vol. XXII, 2016