60 KB795 KB30 KB198920252006Gosar, LojzeMemišević, GordanaMujkić, Sabinaštevilka:1/2letnik:179 stranistr. 139-147ISSN:0353-6483COBISSID:2230979URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-4HFSS63OslUrbanistični inštitut Republike SlovenijeUrbani izzivdemografijademografska statistikademografski razvojdemographymetodologijaprojekcija prebivalstvaSarajevoMetodologija izdelave demografskih analiz in projekcij v izrednih razmerah - primer Kantona Sarajevo|The article presents methodological issues and possible solutions for execution of demographic analyses and projections in contingency circumstances. These demand a systematic approach, which isn´t limited to classical demographic analyses, but demands wider assessment. The methodology was tested in a study entitled "Demography and the system of settlements for the spatial plan of the Sarajevo Canton for the period 2003 to 2023". In the first part evidence of demographic trends and conditions was established, while the second defined variation parameters, which are used for preparation of population projections needed for directing development. This in fact is the methodological novelty in calculating projections. These are closely linked to issues in spatial development and transformations in the demographicand social structure of the population. The applied methodology differs from the most commonly used methods for calculation of population projections. Here we see its practicality. Because of the war demographic conditions changed significantly in the entire Bosnia and Hercegovina, thus also estimates of future demographic development in the Sarajevo canton cannotbe conducted without consideration of the policy of balanced developmentin the country. Therefore similar analyses should also be undertaken in other parts of the country, which would prove the significance of the hypothesis applied to the Sarajevo CantonV članku so predstavljeni metodološki problemi in možne rešitve za izdelavo demografskih analiz in projekcij v izrednih razmerah. Take okoliščine zahtevajo sistematičen pristop, ki se ne omeji samo na klasične demografske analize, ampak zahteva širšo presojo. Metodologija je preizkušena pri izdelavi študije "Demografija i sistem naselja za potrebe izrade prostornog plana Kantona Sarajevo za period od 2003 do 2023 godine". V prvem delu so predvsem ugotavljali demografske smernice in stanje, v drugem pa opredelili variantne parametre, ki so namenjeni pripravi projekcij prebivalstva za potrebe usmerjanja razvoja. Prav v tem je metodološka novost izdelave projekcij. Projekcije se tesno navezujejo na problematiko razvoja v prostoru in preobrazbe demografske in socialne strukture prebivalstva. Metodologija, ki smo jo uporabili v študiji, se razlikuje od običajnih metod izdelave projekcij prebivalstva. Prav v tem vidimo njihovo praktično uporabnost. Ker so se demografske razmere med vojno bistveno spremenile v vsej BiH, ne moremo delati niti ocene bodočega demografskega razvoja v Kantonu Sarajevo, ne da bi upoštevali politiko uvajanja skladnega razvoja v vsej državi. Torej bi bilo treba narediti podobne analize tudi za druga območja BiH, s čimer bi uporabljene hipoteze za Kanton Sarajevo samo utrdile pomenTEXTznanstveno časopisjejournalsSlovenian National E-content AggregatorNational and University Library of SloveniaUrbanistični inštitut Republike Slovenije