{"?xml":{"@version":"1.0"},"edm:RDF":{"@xmlns:dc":"http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/","@xmlns:edm":"http://www.europeana.eu/schemas/edm/","@xmlns:wgs84_pos":"http://www.w3.org/2003/01/geo/wgs84_pos","@xmlns:foaf":"http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/","@xmlns:rdaGr2":"http://rdvocab.info/ElementsGr2","@xmlns:oai":"http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/","@xmlns:owl":"http://www.w3.org/2002/07/owl#","@xmlns:rdf":"http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#","@xmlns:ore":"http://www.openarchives.org/ore/terms/","@xmlns:skos":"http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#","@xmlns:dcterms":"http://purl.org/dc/terms/","edm:WebResource":[{"@rdf:about":"http://www.dlib.si/stream/URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE/2e617953-e6c6-439e-aaf0-74198e804804/HTML","dcterms:extent":"29 KB"},{"@rdf:about":"http://www.dlib.si/stream/URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE/fb690362-e054-4515-b7ce-6ad30e4ac7f9/PDF","dcterms:extent":"68 KB"},{"@rdf:about":"http://www.dlib.si/stream/URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE/7c4695a4-173d-4e90-acbd-9bfdf9023460/TEXT","dcterms:extent":"24 KB"}],"edm:TimeSpan":{"@rdf:about":"1929-2026","edm:begin":{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"1929"},"edm:end":{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"2026"}},"edm:ProvidedCHO":{"@rdf:about":"URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE","dcterms:isPartOf":[{"@rdf:resource":"https://www.dlib.si/details/urn:nbn:si:spr-a30mfzkp"},{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"Zdravniški vestnik"}],"dcterms:issued":"2001","dc:creator":["Japelj, Barbara","Pompe-Kirn, Vera","Primic-Žakelj, Maja","Šircelj, Milivoja"],"dc:format":[{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"številka:6"},{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"letnik:70"},{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"str. 341-345"}],"dc:identifier":["ISSN:1318-0347","COBISSID:13588441","URN:URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE"],"dc:language":"sl","dc:publisher":{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"Slovensko zdravniško društvo"},"dc:subject":[{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"breast"},{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"Breast neoplasms"},{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"Diagnosis"},{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"dojke"},{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"Epidemiology"},{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"incidenca"},{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"Incidence"},{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"rak (medicina)"}],"dcterms:temporal":{"@rdf:resource":"1929-2026"},"dc:title":{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"Kaj je vplivalo na incidenco raka dojk v Sloveniji in kako bo z zbolevnostjo tem desetletju| Which risk factors could have affected breast cancer incidence in Slovenia in the past, and what are the predictions for this decade|"},"dc:description":[{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"Background. Since 1950, the incidence in female breast cancer has been increasing in Slovenia. The curve of annual incidence rates shows an uneven increase. So, the calculation of linear trend and any prediction depend only on the chosen period of observation. In this paper, the analysis of female breast cancer incidence in Slovenia for the period 1964-1998, and the predictions till the years 2003 and 2008 are presented. Methods. First, the basic APC (age period-cohort) model was applied. Because of an unexpectedly high number of new cases predicted by this model for the next decade, we applied three modified models taking into account some known risk factors: thepubdished fertility rates, the average number of children and the age atfirst birth in individual birth cohorts of the 20th century. We used the GLIM program. Results. As risk factors have a different impact on patients diagnosed with breast cancer before and after menopause, we divided the patients by the age at the diagnosis into the following three groups:25-44 years, 45-54 years and 55 years and more. According to this model, the number of new breast cancer cases will not increase in the first half of this decade,while in the second half, it will be close to the number registered in the years 1990-1994. Conclusions. According to our estimates, the third modified model gave us the most appropraate picture of the impact of known risk factors on different generations in the past. We therefore assume that the prediction of incidence for the future five years .according to this: model is the most reliable, though at a first glance, too optimistic"},{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"Izhodišča. Od leta 1950 se incidenca raka dojk v Sloveniji veča. Krivulja letnih incidenčnih stopenj je zelo razgibana. Le od izbora obdobja je odvisno,kakšen bo izračun linearnega trenda in s tem predvidevanje o gibanju incidence v prihodnjih letih. V prispevku objavljamo analizo trenda zbolevanjaza rakom dojk v Sloveniji v obdobju 1964-1998 in napoved do leta 2003 in 2008. Metode. V analizi smo najprej uporabili osnovni model APC (age period-cohort). Ker pa je bila napoved števila novih primerov za prihodnjih deset let neprimerno velika, smo preverili še tri modifikacije, upoštevajoč nekatere znane dejavnike tveganja: objavljene podatke o rodnosti, o povprečnemštevilu otrok in o starosti ob prvem porodu posameznih generacij žensk, rojenih v dvajsetem stoletju. Za analizo smo uporabili program GLIM. Rezultati. Ker nekateri dejavniki tveganja nimajo enakega pomena glede na to, ali ženska zboli za rakom dojk pred ali po menopavzi, smo pri iskanju najboljšega modela za opis trenda zbolevanja v Sloveniji bolnice razdelili v tri skupine glede na starost ob diagnozi: 25-44 let, 45-54 let in SS let in več Po tem modelu se število novih primerov raka dojk v prvi polovici tega desetletja ne bo večpovečevalo, v drugi pa bo verjetno že blizu števila, ki smo ga zabeležili v letih 1990-1994. Zaključki. Ocenili smo, da je dala tretjamodifikacija modela najprimernejšo sliko obremenitve posameznih generacij in da je za to napoved za prihodnjih 5 let po tem modelu tudi najbolj zanesljiva, čeprav je na prvi pogled preveč optimistična"}],"edm:type":"TEXT","dc:type":[{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"znanstveno časopisje"},{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"journals"},{"@rdf:resource":"http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q361785"}]},"ore:Aggregation":{"@rdf:about":"http://www.dlib.si/?URN=URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE","edm:aggregatedCHO":{"@rdf:resource":"URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE"},"edm:isShownBy":{"@rdf:resource":"http://www.dlib.si/stream/URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE/fb690362-e054-4515-b7ce-6ad30e4ac7f9/PDF"},"edm:rights":{"@rdf:resource":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"},"edm:provider":"Slovenian National E-content Aggregator","edm:intermediateProvider":{"@xml:lang":"en","#text":"National and University Library of Slovenia"},"edm:dataProvider":{"@xml:lang":"sl","#text":"Slovensko zdravniško društvo"},"edm:object":{"@rdf:resource":"http://www.dlib.si/streamdb/URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE/maxi/edm"},"edm:isShownAt":{"@rdf:resource":"http://www.dlib.si/details/URN:NBN:SI:doc-FBNIQCBE"}}}}