45 Sodobni vojaški izzivi, september 2019 – 21/št. 3
Contemporary Military Challenges, September 2019 – 21/No. 3
15 LET ČLANSTVA V NATU IN EU: ALI SO 
SI NACIONALNE VARNOSTNE STRATEGIJE 
IN OBRAMBNI MODELI BALTSKIH DRŽAV 
PODOBNI ALI SE RAZLIKUJEJO
Viljar Veebel, 
Illimar Ploom
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: 
ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR 
DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF THEIR NATIONAL 
SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
of the Baltic countries. 
Povzetek
Ključne 
besede
Abstract
Key words
DOI: 10.33179/BSV.99.SVI.11.CMC.21.3.2
 46 Sodobni vojaški izzivi/Contemporary Military Challenges
Viljar Veebel, Illimar Ploom
work in times of crisis.
 1 SECURITY THREATS IDENTIFIED IN THE BALTIC COUNTRIES OVER 
THE LAST FIVE YEARS 
Introduction 
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15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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 2 THE POTENTIAL RUSSIAN THREAT AND CRITICAL RESPONSE 
CAPABILITIES IN THE BALTIC STATES
Figure 1: 
The importance 
of security 
challenges to 
the internal 
security 
of the EU: 
December 2017. 
Proportion 
of “very 
important” 
answers (%) 
Source: 
European 
Commission, 
2017, pp 17-21
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
 EU      Estonia      Latvia      Lithuania
Very important: 
Terrorism
Very important:
Organised crime
Very important: 
Natural and man-
made disasters
Very important: 
Cybercrime
Very important: 
EU's external 
borders
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and Lithuania. 
The question of whether and how Russia could attack the Baltic countries has also 
fait accompli 
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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be a realistic consideration.
 3 THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR THREATS AND NUCLEAR DETERRENCE 
FOR THE BALTIC STATES
The situation becomes even more unbalanced if the nuclear capabilities of the 
Viljar Veebel, Illimar Ploom
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decreased over the past two or three decades. The number of US tactical nuclear 
related to nuclear deterrence in the Alliance. This issue has also been addressed in 
an essential contribution to the nuclear deterrence capabilities of the Alliance as a 
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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that could evolve to a nuclear war still seems a bit unrealistic and irrational. This 
the bad news is that the nuclear deterrence that is considered a core component 
preventative measure. 
Viljar Veebel, Illimar Ploom
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 4 THE KEY FEATURES OF THE NATIONAL DEFENCE MODELS IN THE 
BALTIC STATES 
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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Lithuania represents a compromise between them.
Latvian defence model. 
Viljar Veebel, Illimar Ploom
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Russia. 
. 
of its initial independent defence capabilities. Estonian territorial defence is based 
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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Figure 2: 
Defence 
expenditure in 
Estonia, Latvia 
and Lithuania 
between 2006 
and 2018 
(% of GDP)
Source: 
NATO, 2019.
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
6
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
7
e
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
8
e
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
5
 Estonia      Latvia      Lithuania
Viljar Veebel, Illimar Ploom
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(Eesti Kaitseliit
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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countries understand the nature of a potential threat from Russia’s point of 
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 5 EXPECTATIONS OF THE BALTIC COUNTRIES WITH REGARD TO 
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH NATO AND THE EU
Similar evidence has been found in public opinion polls in Latvia and Lithuania. 
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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concerned. 
the EU.
Figure 3: 
Perceptions 
of the EU as a 
security actor
Source: 
Dennison et al., 
2018.
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to receive allied forces and to assure the local population that the best choices have 
capabilities near the Baltic borders.
Conclusion
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OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS
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1. 
2. 
the Balance between External Military Solidarity and Territorial Defence. Journal on 
Baltic Security, 3(2), pp 29-41.
3. 
Analysis. 
4. 
Division, Press Release. 
5. 
fears that keep Europeans awake at night. European Council on Foreign Relations, July 
9. 
10. 
11. 
 
12. 
13. 
14. 
The reservist army is the backbone of Estonian defence). Database Riigikaitse.ee. 
15. 
has not reached the maximum possible level). 
towards NATO allies, polls suggest. 
19. 
 
Bibliography
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20. 
21. NATO’s new strategic concept, 2010. 
22. NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy and forces, 2015. 
23. 
revitalizeddeterrencestrategy.
24. 
Arms Control Association. 
25. 
.
29. The National Security Concept of Latvia, 2015. 
30. 
31. 
32. 
33. 
pp 291-309. 
34. 
15 YEARS OF NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP: ARE THE BALTIC COUNTRIES SIMILAR OR DIFFERENT IN TERMS 
OF THEIR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIES AND DEFENCE MODELS