slovenian economic mirror No. 1, Vol. XXVII, 2021 Slovenian Economic Mirror (Ekonomsko ogledalo) No. 1 / Vol. XXVII / 2021 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorciceva 27 Responsible Person: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Director Editor: Tina Nenadic, MSc Authors: Urška Brodar; Lejla Fajic; Marjan Hafner, MSc; Matevž Hribernik, MSc; Katarina Ivas, MSc; Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršic; Janez Kušar, MSc; Andrej Kuštrin, PhD; Jože Markic, PhD; Tina Nenadic, MSc; Mitja Perko, MSc; Jure Povšnar; Denis Rogan, MSc; Dragica Šuc, MSc; Ana Vidrih, MSc Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc; Lejla Fajic; Marta Gregorcic, PhD; Alenka Kajzer, PhD; Rotija Kmet Zupancic, MSc; Janez Kušar, MSc Translated by: Marija Kavcic Technical editing and layout: Bibijana Cirman Naglic Print: Eurograf d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies First edition Ljubljana, January 2021 ISSN 1318-3826 (print) ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf) The publication is available free of charge. © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight ........................................................................................................................................... 3 Current economic trends ....................................................................................................................... 7 International environment .......................................................................................................................9 Economic developments in Slovenia ................................................................................................. 11 Labour market ............................................................................................................................................ 17 Prices .............................................................................................................................................................. 18 Financial markets ....................................................................................................................................... 19 Balance of payments ................................................................................................................................ 20 Public finance ............................................................................................................................................. 21 Statistical appendix ...............................................................................................................................23 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 11th January 2021. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Due to the tightening of containment measures during the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, economic activity in the euro area is expected to have contracted again in the last quarter of 2020, while for 2021 a gradual recovery is expected. The contraction during the second wave of the epidemic has probably been smaller than during the first. Businesses and consumers have already partly adapted to the new situation. According to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the decline in service activities, which have been more affected by the containment measures, was smaller in the last quarter of 2020 than in the second quarter. Respondents in manufacturing, unlike in the first wave of the epidemic, did not expect a contraction of activity. After a pronounced rebound of economic activity in the third quarter and a likely smaller decline in the fourth quarter than in the spring, euro area GDP in 2020 fell by 7.5%/7.3% according to OECD/ECB forecasts; in 2021 it is predicted to increase by 3.6%/3.9%. A significant factor in this year’s growth will be monetary and fiscal policy measures and growth in foreign demand. The greatest risk to the realisation of the forecast remains associated with the course of the epidemic, i.e. the accessibility and effectiveness of vaccines and the related relaxation of measures. With stringent containment measures, turnover in trade and some service activities, particularly those related to private consumption, also dropped significantly in Slovenia at the beginning of the last quarter of 2020. As during the first wave of the epidemic, the most affected sector was accommodation and food service activities, where employment also dropped significantly. The number of domestic tourist overnight stays plunged, after strengthening significantly due to the redemption of tourist vouchers in the third quarter (when a significant part of turnover in hotels and restaurants tends to be generated by foreign tourists, whose number was modest this year). Household expenditure on personal, entertainment, sports and other services also declined. As a result of the closure of non-essential shops, turnover from sales of motor vehicles and retail sales of semi-durable and durable goods also fell sharply. Lower volumes of freight and passenger traffic and lower transit of foreign tourists were also reflected in lower retail sales of automotive fuels. As in the first wave of the epidemic, sales of food products in retail stores and sales via mail order and the internet strengthened. Overall, however, household consumption again fell sharply in October and November with the tightening of measures to contain the epidemic, while household savings increased further. Households were also increasingly repaying consumer loans. The epidemic and the measures to contain its spread have, due to lower demand, also strongly affected the movement of some prices of goods and services. The year-on-year fall in consumer prices deepened somewhat at the end of 2020. This was attributable to a significant moderation of price rises in services and food, in the latter owing to increased supply due to the good harvest, modest activity in accommodation and food service activities, and the complete closure of some other activities. Prices of semi-durable goods, particularly clothing and footwear, also fell sharply in the last months of 2020. The lower prices were, however, still largely due to the lower prices of oil products. Export-oriented activities have been less affected during the second wave of the epidemic; as a result of a strong drop during the first wave, the Slovenian export market share declined in the first three quarters. In the third quarter alone, it increased, which could be partly related to the realisation of export flows that had been interrupted during the first wave of the epidemic. Following growth in the third quarter, exports of goods to EU countries, to which Slovenia exports around three-quarters of all goods, and manufacturing output continued to rise towards the end of the year. Industry was less affected in the last quarter than the service sector and less than during the first wave of the epidemic, which is also confirmed by data on electricity consumption (the largest consumer is industrial companies), which declined only slightly year on year in the last quarter of 2020, against a drop of around 15% in the spring. Freight traffic on Slovenian motorways, which had fallen by around a quarter during the first wave of the epidemic, was approximately on par with the previous year at the end of 2020. With the retention of labour market intervention measures and the expected smaller contraction of economic activity than during the first wave of the epidemic, the number of registered unemployed persons increased slightly in December, mostly as a consequence of seasonal factors. At the end of December, 87,283 persons were unemployed, which is 3.7% more than at the end of November and 15.9% more than in the same period last year. The average gross wage has also been significantly affected by intervention measures since the spring. In the private sector, year-on-year wage growth has slowed gradually since April, when it increased significantly due to the impact of the methodology for the collection of earning statistics, which reflected the placement of a large number of people on temporary layoff. In the public sector, it increased again slightly with the declaration of the second wave of the epidemic and the renewed payment of crisis allowances. Following the improvement in the third quarter, the deficit of the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis increased again towards the end of the year. In the first 11 months of 2020, it amounted to EUR 2.6 billion. Due to the deterioration in epidemiological and, consequently, economic conditions, revenue again fell below the previous year’s level in October and November. As in the third quarter, expenditure growth remained well below that in the second quarter, when the majority of expenditures related to the COVID-19 measures were paid. The deficit of the consolidated general government budgetary accounts, which originates mainly from the state budget, thus widened again, particularly in November. An even larger increase is expected in December. Nevertheless, it appears that, in the year as a whole, it will not reach the estimate from the adopted revised state budget (EUR 4.2 million). The gap is mainly attributable to lower growth in expenditure than estimated, which is also linked to the lower-than-planned realisation of measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. * June's figure is IMAD . estimate, as it was not sufficiently reliable for publication. Source: BoS. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 5: Unemployment rose somewhat at the end of Figure 6: At the end of the year, the deficit of the 2020, mainly due to seasonal factors. consolidated general government budgetary accounts widened again. 92,000 General government balance Figure 1: In the euro area, in the last quarter of 2020, the second wave of the epidemic and the measures to contain its spread affected service activities particularly. Composite index Manufacturing Services 62 58 54 Figure 2: In Slovenia, as in other countries, at the beginning of the last quarter of 2020, particularly turnover in some service activities shrank due to the closure of non-essential shops and services. Retail sale of non-food products Sale of motor vehicles Accommodation and food service activities Retail sale of food products Number of registered unemployed Year-on-year growth of deposits, in % Figure 4: The impact of the second wave of the epidemic while household savings and repayment of consumer on export-oriented manufacturing activities and loans increased further. transport was smaller than in the spring; construction activity also shrank less in October than in the spring. Figure 3: Household consumption was thus again lower, Overnight deposits Short-term Merchandise exports Long-term Total Ind. prod. in manufacturing Value of construction output Turnover in transportation and storage (nom.) PMI value for euro area 76,000 78,000 10 80,000 -30 82,000 84,000 86,000 90,000 0 14 18 22 26 30 34 88,000 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Source: Markit. Note: A reading above 50 signals an expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates a contraction. Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Retail sale of automotive fuels Travel agencies* Monthly balance, in EUR million Seasonally adjusted index 2010=100 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100 100 90 80 70 60 -500 -400 150 140 130 120 110 -600 200 190 180 170 160 -300 -200 -100 50 40 40 20 0 100 80 60 120 180 160 140 200 220 240 Jan 10Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 74,000 Source: ESS. Note: Pink columns show daily (unofficial) data; grey columns show official data at the end of the month. Source: MF, Bulletin of Public Finance; calculations by IMAD. 31/01/2020 29/02/202031/03/202030/04/2020 31/05/202030/06/202031/07/202031/08/2020 30/09/202019/10/2020 25/10/202031/10/2020 05/11/202009/11/202013/11/2020 18/11/202023/11/2020 26/11/202030/11/2020 03/12/202007/12/2020 11/12/202016/12/2020 21/12/202024/12/202031/12/2020 -700 January February March April May June July August September October November current economic trends The international environment Figure 1: Contribution of expenditure components to euro area economic growth Private consumption Economic activity in the euro area recovered strongly Government consumption Net exports Gross fixed capital formation in the third quarter of 2020, particularly due to a Change in invent. and valuab. GDP (right axis) sharp rebound in private consumption; in the last Contribution to quarterly GDP growth, in p.p. 14 14 quarter, it is estimated to have contracted again. GDP 12 12 grew by 12.5% quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted). 10 Real quarterly growth, in % The year-on-year fall was smaller (-4.3%, seasonally adjusted). The pronounced increase in activity was underpinned by domestic and foreign demand, most of all by private consumption. Amid the easing off of forced savings, the sharp rebound was mainly driven by demand for durable goods and higher expenditure on services. In the last quarter of 2020, economic activity 8 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -10 -12 Source: Eurostat. -8 in the euro area is estimated to have declined again due -10 to the reintroduction of containment measures, but less -12 so than in the spring. The containment measures during the second wave of the epidemic, while mainly focused on service activities, are less disruptive to manufacturing and construction. The smaller decline in activity also reflects the adaptation of businesses and consumers to the new situation. A smaller contraction of activity than in the spring is also indicated by current economic indicators such as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). In manufacturing, the latter in fact showed an improvement in December, reaching its highest level since May 2018, while in services, it again indicated a decline in activity in the last quarter but remained well above the values seen in the spring. Figure 2: Economic forecasts for the euro area Consensus, December 20 After contracting sharply in 2020, euro area economic ECB, December 20 activity will rebound in 2021, according to the 5 OECD, December 20 forecasts of international institutions. The recovery 4 of activity in the third quarter of 2020 was stronger than 3 expected by international institutions. In their latest 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 Source: Consensus Economics, ECB, OECD. 2020 2021 Real GDP change, in % (i.e. December) forecasts, they improved slightly their projections for the contraction of economic activity in 2020, despite the expected renewed deterioration in the last quarter. According to OECD and ECB forecasts, euro area economic activity will decline by 7.5% or 7.3% respectively. Assuming a gradual relaxation of containment measures and a decline in uncertainty due to the prospects of effective vaccines, economic activity will start picking up gradually in 2021. With significant support of monetary and fiscal policy measures and the strengthening of foreign demand, euro area GDP is projected to grow by 3.6% or 3.9% according to OECD and ECB forecasts. The greatest risk to the realisation of the forecast is associated with the duration and severity of the epidemic. A faster improvement in epidemiological conditions and widespread use of an effective vaccine or medicine would lead to a faster recovery of the euro area economy, while in the event of further large-scale closures of the economy due to a continued worsening of epidemiological conditions, the recovery would be weaker than predicted in the central forecast. Figure 3: Effective exchange rates NEER (narrow group) REER_hicp (broad group) 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 NEER (broad group) REER_hicp (broad group) The appreciation of the euro against a basket of currencies halted towards the end of 2020. From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020) to the end of 2020, the euro appreciated against most currencies of Slovenia’s more important trading partners, particularly against the currencies of countries that already had unstable macroeconomic and financial environments before the pandemic (e.g. the Turkish lira) and energy exporting countries (e.g. the Russian rouble). Towards the end of the year, the euro also again appreciated more markedly against the US dollar. However, in the last quarter of 2020, the euro started to depreciate more noticeably against the currencies of certain Asian countries (e.g. the Chines juan), where the economic consequences of the epidemic were less severe in that period due to its more successful containment. In the last quarter, the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of Slovenia, which indicates the ratio of the euro to a basket of currencies of trading partners,1 thus no longer recorded the strong appreciation typical of the previous two quarters. The pressure on the price competitiveness of Slovenian exporters (measured by the REER_hicp indicator) as a consequence of the strengthening of the euro was otherwise mitigated by weaker growth of final prices (measured by inflation) in comparison with trading partners. 1 Weighted by their importance in Slovenia’s external trade flows. Long-term average from the entryinto the ERM II to the latest data=100 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. *An increase in the NEER means an appreciation of the euro against the basket of currencies of 37 (narrow group) or 60 (broad group) trading partners, including Turkey and Russia. Table 1: Brent Crude prices, USD/EUR exchange rate and EURIBOR average change, in %* 2019 XI 20 XII 20 2020 XII 20/XI 20 XII 20/XII 19 2020/2019 Brent USD, per barrel 64.28 40.19 49.99 41.82 17.1 -25.6 -34.9 Brent EUR, per barrel 57.20 36.50 40.96 37.02 12.2 -30.9 -35.3 USD/EUR 1.119 1.183 1.217 1.141 2.8 9.5 2.0 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.357 -0.521 -0.538 -0.427 1.7 14.3 7.0 Source: EIA, ECB, EMMI Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Source: Internal reports obtained from Dars; calculations by IMAD. two months respectively. In December, freight traffic was up 0.2% year on year, of which domestic vehicle traffic by 1.8%, while foreign vehicle traffic was still 1.0% lower. exceeded the comparable levels of 2019, though this was also related to one and two more working days in those Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -30 with restrictions in service activities, did not have a -35 major impact on freight traffic. It improved particularly -40 in November and even more in December, when it again -25 -5 6%. The containment measures during the second wave, on year in April. Its decline was larger than the decline Merchandise exports Ind. prod. in manufacturing The second wave of the epidemic had a stronger Value of construction output Turnover in trade negative impact particularly on some service Turnover in services (nom.) activities, while in more export-oriented activities growth continued. The closure of non-essential shops and certain services at the beginning of the last quarter led to a decline in their sales. As during the first wave in the spring, the decline was largest in accommodation and food service activities. Construction activity also fell somewhat in October. Production in export-oriented manufacturing activities increased further, as did exports to the EU. Turnover in transport also rose slightly. Confidence in the economy, which deteriorated in the last quarter of 2020, as expected, remained more favourable Source: ENTSO-E and Bruegel.org. Notes: Only consumption on working days (between 8.00 and18.00) is considered. The 2 Excluding the Christmas week (21–25 December), when weekly percentages are adjusted for temperature differences. electricity consumption was 19% higher year on year, mainly as a consequence of a more favourable distribution of public holidays in 2020 (from the point of view of the functioning of the economy). Figure 6: Traffic of electronically tolled vehicles on Slovenian motorways in 2019 and 2020 2020 Growth rate (r. axis) In December 2020, freight traffic on Slovenian 10 motorways was slightly higher year on year, though this was partly due to two more working days. As 5 a result of the measures implemented during the first 0 wave of the epidemic, traffic fell more than 35% year 2019 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 5: Electricity consumption Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 -20 -15 -10 2.3.-6.3. 16.3.-20.3. 30.3.-3.4. 13.4.-17.4. 27.4.-1.5. 11.5.-15.5. 25.5.-29.5. 8.6.-12.6. 22.6.-26.6. 6.7.-10.7. 20.7.-24.7. 3.8.-7.8. Austria France Croatia The year-on-year fall in weekly electricity Italy Germany Slovenia consumption during the second wave of the epidemic Jan 14 17.8.-21.8. 31.8.-4.9. 14.9.-18.9. 28.9.-2.10. 12.10.-16.10.Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 26.10.-30.10. Jan 18 9.11.-13.11. Jan 19 23.11-27.117.12.-11.12. Jan 20 Year on year, in % 21.12.-25.12. than in the spring in all activities. few months. In the third quarter, it amounted to around of industry and services, the lag narrowed in the next the relaxation of containment measures and the recovery in manufacturing output and turnover in services. With consumption was in Austria (8%). In Italy and France, as in Slovenia, it was around 3%, while electricity consumption in Germany and Croatia was at the same level as in the previous year. main trading partners, the largest year-on-year fall in share of total electricity consumption. Among Slovenia’s in industrial consumption, which accounts for the largest the spring was primarily a consequence of a smaller fall around 15% in the spring). The smaller decline than in average in November and December (compared with Weekly electricity consumption was 3% lower2 on remained significantly smaller than in the spring. Current economic trends Figure 4: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Figure 7: Trade in goods – real Goods trade continued to recover in the autumn Exports to the EU Imports from the EU months despite the unfavourable epidemiological conditions in Slovenia and the EU as a whole. The renewed spread of the epidemic and the adoption of containment measures in Slovenia’s main trading partners in October and November did not have a significant impact on export activity with other EU countries. In November, real exports to the EU even increased and came close to pre-crisis levels. In contrast, the recovery of imports came to a halt, which was mainly related to a fall in private consumption in Slovenia due to the adopted containment measures and, given the functioning of industrial activities, somewhat less to Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20 imports of intermediates. In the first 11 months, imports from EU countries (-11.6%) declined more than exports Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. (-9.9%). Export expectations did not change significantly in December compared with the previous few months, but companies were more optimistic about future foreign demand than during the first wave of the epidemic in the spring. Figure 8: Slovenia’s export market share on the world goods market (excluding the impact of exports of pharmaceuticals to Switzerland*) The Slovenian export market share increased again 8 in the third quarter of 2020, following a sharp fall 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 2020 q1 q2 q3 Source: UN Comtrade, SURS; calculations by IMAD. * Exports of pharmaceuticals to Switzerland are an approximation of the strongly increased exports of previously imported pharmaceuticals, which have an insignificant impact on GDP and are not included in the national accounts data on exports. during the first wave of the epidemic. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic around the world caused a strong decline in global import/export flows. With an even deeper decline in Slovenian exports – partly also due to their orientation to the epidemically more affected EU market – the Slovenian market share on the global market fell significantly in the spring months of 2020. The third quarter of 2020 recorded renewed growth (0.6% year on year),3 which could be partly related to the realisation of export flows that had been interrupted in the previous quarter. In the first three quarters, the Slovenian market share declined by 1.7% on average year on year on the world market and by 0.3% in the EU. Based on more detailed data on export/import flows of EU countries, to which Slovenia exports around three quarters of all goods, we estimate that the decline in the Slovenian market share was to a great extent also due to export specialisation, particularly owing to a large share of passenger vehicle exports, which were strongly affected at the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis. The unfavourable impact of the composition of exports was mitigated by stronger demand for pharmaceuticals, which also account for a large share of Slovenian exports. 3 All data for 2020 are provisional. Year-on-year change, in % Figure 9: Trade in services – nominal In October, external trade in services increased Exports of services Imports of services further but remained significantly lower year on year.4 A recovery of exports continued in most main groups of services, with the exception of travel. The smaller year-on-year decline in services exports in the last few months was to a great extent due to increased exports of construction services and other business services, which together account for around a third of total services exports. Their exports were higher year on year. Despite the favourable developments in the last months of the year, exports of transport services remained lower than in the same period of 2019. Spending by foreign tourists in Slovenia remained markedly lower year on year. The Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20 developments in services imports were less pronounced than in exports and the recovery was somewhat slower. Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. As in exports, the decline was mainly due to Slovenian tourists’ spending abroad. In September and October, the year-on-year lag increased further due to additional restrictions for crossing the state border. In the first ten months of the year, nominal exports of services otherwise declined by 20.5% and imports by 17.3%. 4 According to the balance of payments statistics. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Figure 10: Production volume in manufacturing In % 2019 XI 20/X 20 XI 20/XI 19 I-XI 20/I-XI 19 Merchandise exports, real1 9.3 -1.43 1.94 -1.54 - to the EU 4.3 2.23 1.94 -9.94 Merchandise imports, real1 11.7 12.73 16.14 -3.54 - from the EU 4.1 0.13 0.24 -11.64 Industrial production, real 3.1 0.23 -0.84 -6.74 - manufacturing 3.5 0.13 -1.14 -6.54 In % 2019 X 20/IX 20 X 20/X 19 I-X 20/I-X 19 Services exports, nominal2 7.0 6.83 -18.64 -20.54 Services imports, nominal2 4.6 5.73 -16.04 -17.34 Construction -value of construction put in place, real 3.3 -2.33 -0.3 -2.1 Distributive trades - real turnover 4.3 -1.23 -6.34 -7.84 Market services (without trade) - nominal turnover 5.4 -0.73 -8.74 -11.24 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 External trade statistics, deflated by IMAD, 2 balance of payments statistics, 3 seasonally adjusted, 4 working-day adjusted data. Manufacturing, total High-technology industries Manufacturing production increased further Medium-high-tech. ind. Medium-low-tech. ind. towards the end of last year, despite the worsening Low-technology industries of epidemiological conditions in Slovenia and the EU as a whole. Growth was mainly driven by medium- technology industries, which in November again exceeded the levels from the same period of 2019. The recovery remained slowest in motor vehicle manufacturing, which still lagged behind year on year. On the other hand, in the last months of the year production increased markedly in the metal industry and most other industries producing intermediate goods. In November, they mostly exceeded the levels from the same period of 2019 (particularly the rubber and chemical industries). Production in high-technology industries, which was the least affected during the first wave, remained high. Production in low-technology industries declined; in November it was also lower year on year, except in the wood-processing industry. The prospects remain favourable, as most enterprises surveyed also expected production growth at the beginning of this year. Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 20 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 11: Activity in construction Seasonally adjusted data After strengthening in the third quarter, construction 3-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted activity declined slightly in October. The value of construction output fell by 2.3% but was still significantly higher than in the spring months. Compared with 2018 and 2019, in the last months of 2020 construction activity was significantly lower in non-residential buildings, slightly higher in civil-engineering works and considerably higher in residential buildings (where data for the last months are less reliable). Short-term prospects remain favourable for civil-engineering works and residential buildings, while they look worse for the construction of non-residential buildings. The stock of contracts in the construction of civil-engineering works Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 increased by 23% year on year, while in the construction of non-residential buildings it declined by 11%. The total floor area of residential buildings planned by issued building permits in the last half of the year was 14% higher than in the same period of the previous year. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 12: Prices for dwellings and transactions thereof, Q3 2020 Transactions in existing residential properties (left axis) Growth in dwelling prices moderated in the third Transactions in new residential properties (left axis) quarter; after the containment measures were lifted, Prices of existing residential properties (right axis) the number of transactions in dwellings increased Prices of new residential properties (right axis) Index 2010=100, 4-quarter moving averages 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 significantly and was similar to that one year before. In the first nine months of 2020, prices were 4.4% higher on average year on year (in the third quarter 3.3%), indicating a slowdown in price growth compared to the last three years (with average annual growth at almost 8%). The price increase in the first nine months of 2020 was largely a consequence of higher prices of existing dwellings, particularly flats (5.5%). Prices of newly built dwellings were also higher year on year, but these dwellings accounted for less than 3% of all transactions. 80 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19Q1 20 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Due to methodological changes transaction data are available from 2010 onwards. Among prices of newly built dwellings, prices of family houses recorded strong growth. Only these (along with prices of existing family houses) were lower than in 2008 (by 14.5%). Figure 13: Turnover in trade . Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 14: Turnover in market services In October, turnover in trade dropped further with Total Sale of motor vehicles the closure of some non-essential shops and due to Wholesale trade Retail trade other containment measures; in November, it fell further in most segments according to preliminary data. In October, turnover dropped in all three main segments, the most in sales of motor vehicles, where it had also fluctuated the most in previous months. Turnover in wholesale and retail trade also declined slightly. Within the latter, a sharp fall was recorded for the already low sales of automotive fuels, which in the first ten months of 2020 also lagged the most (almost by a quarter) behind the results from 2019. This was a consequence of lower volumes of freight transport, less tourist transit in the slowed slightly. Figure 15: Selected indicators of household consumption Household consumption After the recovery in the third quarter, household Real turnover in the sale of non-food products consumption dropped strongly in October and Real turnover in the sale of food products November, mainly as a consequence of the renewed Sale of passenger cars to natural persons Domestic overnight stays (right axis) closure of non-essential shops and services. This was reflected in a sharp fall in passenger cars sales and sales of Seasonally adjusted nominal index 2010=100 Accommodation and food service activities (I) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * including real estate. Jan 10Jan 10 Jan 20 Jan 20 Jan 11 Total * In October, turnover in market services declined Transportation and storage (H) again. With the re-closure of restaurants and hotels, Information and communication activities (J) turnover, as in the first wave of the epidemic, shrank Professional and technical activities (M) Administrative and support service activities (N) the most in accommodation and food service activities, Jan 11Jan 12Jan 12 Jan 13Jan 13Jan 14Jan 14Jan 15Jan 15Jan 16Jan 16Jan 17Jan 17Jan 18Jan 18Jan 19Jan 19 0 60 120 180 240 300 Seasonally adjusted index 2010=100 expenditure on personal, entertainment, sports and overnight stays, which had surged with the redemption of tourist vouchers during the summer season, plunged with the closure of hotels and restaurants. Household in the first ten months. The number of domestic tourist in October and were more than half higher year on year via mail order and the internet, meanwhile, remained high most other non-food products in traditional shops; sales where it had strengthened strongly in previous months, including due to the redemption of tourism vouchers. Turnover also dropped in information and communication activities (due to a fall in both telecommunications and computer services) and, only slightly, in professional and technical activities (mainly due to a fall in architectural and engineering services). Despite a further fall of turnover in travel and employment agencies, turnover in administrative and support service activities strengthened, for the most part as a consequence of growth in rental and leasing activities and office administrative and support activities. In transport, turnover growth again summer and lower sales of fuels to households. As at the beginning of the first wave of the epidemic, retail sales of food also strengthened at the beginning of the second wave. Sales of non-food products via mail order or the internet also remained high. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: The Q4 2020 figure, except for cars, is the average value for October and November. strengthened, as they had at the beginning of the first wave of the epidemic. other services, where certain containment measures had remained in place in the summer months, also declined. In contrast, sales of food products in retail stores Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Figure 16: Economic sentiment Economic sentiment Manufacturing Economic sentiment improved slightly in December, Retail trade Service activities after deteriorating since the declaration of the second Construction Consumers wave of the epidemic at the beginning of the last quarter. The December improvement in confidence in service activities, retail trade and among consumers was mainly attributable to the temporary relaxation of restrictions on some service activities and the opening of non-essential shops before the Christmas and New Year holidays. Confidence also improved in construction, which, along with manufacturing, remains one of the less affected sectors. In all activities confidence levels remained higher than in the first wave of the epidemic. Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19 Jan 20 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Labour market Figure 17: Number of employed persons and number of registered unemployed persons Employed according to SRE (left axis) The number of registered unemployed persons Registered unemployed (right axis) increased somewhat in December, after maintaining 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Number of registered unemployed,in '000, seasonally adjusted a similar level in the previous three months. At the end of December, 87,283 persons were unemployed, 3.7% more than at the end of November and 15.9% more than in the same period last year. Amid the retention of intervention measures, the December increase was not much different from that of previous years, when it had mostly been due to seasonal factors. The smaller increase than in the spring months was also due to a smaller fall in economic activity than during the first wave. The number of employed persons was down 1.4% year on 0 year in October, which was the same as in September. Jan 06 Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13 Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17 Jan 18Jan 19 Jan 20 The activities with the largest declines (11.1% and 8.8% respectively) remained administrative and support service activities and accommodation and food service Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. activities. In manufacturing, the decline was 3.4%. Figure 18: Average gross wage per employee Private sector Public sector Total The year-on-year growth of the average gross wage in October was at 4.6%; since the spring months it has been significantly affected by the payment of crisis allowances and the inclusion of employed persons into intervention job retention schemes. In the private sector, year-on-year wage growth has gradually weakened since April, when it rose sharply due to the impact of the methodology for collecting earning statistics, which reflected the placement of a large number of people on temporary layoff. In the public sector, wage growth slowed after the discontinuation of allowances (the extraordinary payment of allowances for hazardous working conditions and additional workloads and the payment of bonuses for work in crisis conditions in accordance with the collective agreement) in the Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19Jan 20 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. middle of the year. Since mid-October, when the second wave of the epidemic was declared, it has strengthened somewhat due to the renewed payment of allowances (albeit in a smaller amount than during the first wave). Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends Change, in % 2019 X 20/IX 20 X 20/X 19 I-X 20/I-X 19 Persons in formal employment2 2.5 0.01 -1.2 -0.5 Average nominal gross wage 4.3 0.31 4.6 5.4 private sector 3.9 -0.31 2.9 4.5 public sector 5.4 1.11 7.1 6.6 of which general government 6.5 3.81 9.1 8.3 of which public corporations 2.7 -0.21 1.4 1.7 2019 X 19 IX 20 X 20 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 7.7 7.6 9.0 8.8 Change, in % 2020 XII 20/XI 20 XII 20/XII 19 I-XII 20/I-XII 19 Registered unemployed 14.6 3.7 15.9 14.6 Sources: ESS, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers (SRDAP). Prices Figure 19: Consumer prices Jan 10 Source: SURS, Eurostat. Figure 20: Slovenian industrial producer prices Jan 10 Slovenia Euro area The year-on-year fall in consumer prices deepened somewhat at the end of the year.5 The epidemic and the measures to contain its spread have, due to lower demand, strongly affected the movement of some prices of goods and services. Year-on-year growth in services prices eased markedly and was the lowest since February 2016 (0.2%). Food price growth also slowed considerably, which has to do with increased supply of food due to a good harvest, lower activity of hotels and restaurants, and the complete closure of some other activities (e.g. schools). Prices of semi-durables also fell notably in the last months of the year, largely on account of lower clothing and footwear prices. The lower prices were still Source: SURS. Table 4: Consumer price growth, in % XII 19/XII 18 I 20-XII 20/ I19-XII 19 XII 20/XI 20 XII 20/XII 19 Total 1.8 -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 Food 3.5 3.7 -0.7 1.1 Fuels and energy 1.2 -9.7 1.6 -9.9 Services 2.9 1.6 -0.8 0.2 Other1 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 Core inflation - excluding food and energy 1.6 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 Core inflation - trimmed mean2 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 Jan 11Jan 11 Domestic market Foreign market Slovenian industrial producer prices remained unchanged year on year in November. The low price Jan 12 Jan 12Jan 13Jan 13Jan 14Jan 14Jan 15Jan 15Jan 16Jan 16Jan 17 Jan 17 Jan 18Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 19Jan 20 Jan 20 growth on the domestic market, which remained at around 1%, was to a great extent a consequence of year-on-year lower prices in the group of intermediate goods and more than 2% price growth in other groups. Energy prices again increased the most (3.8%), but their growth is gradually easing. The year-on-year fall in Slovenian producer prices on foreign markets remained at around 1%. Year on year, prices were down in all but the group of durable consumer goods, where they were almost 1% higher year on year due to somewhat more pronounced growth in November. previous months due to the current monthly growth. 5 Due to the additional containment measures, SURS collected retail prices of non-food goods and services to a greater extent by phone and through the websites of providers. Prices that could not be collected are estimated on the basis of past price changes (or price changes within the aggregate or of higher aggregates) and represent 9.8% of the consumer price index. mainly due to the year-on-year fall in oil product prices, but their negative contribution was smaller than in Source: SURS. Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2 An approach that excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. Financial markets Figure 21: Loans to domestic non-banking sectors Source: Bos. Figure 22: Yield to maturity of government bonds Consumer loans Lending for house purchase The year-on-year decline in the volume of loans Enterprises and NFIs Total to domestic non-banking sectors deepened slightly again in November. Most of the decline was a consequence of lower lending to enterprises, but their deleveraging eased in the last two months. Only household loans recorded moderate year-on-year growth, but this slowed slightly further in the last months of the year. This was to a great extent a consequence of stronger household repayments of consumer loans, which were down 7.2% year on year, while growth in housing loans remained just above 4%. Among sources of finance, deposits by non-banking sectors continued to expand and were almost a tenth higher Source: Bloomberg. Table 5: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 30. XI 19 31. XII 19 30. XI 20 30. XI 20/31. X 20 30. XI 20/30. XI 19 Loans total 23,286.2 23,168.1 23,056.7 -0.1 -1.0 Enterprises and NFI 10,654.2 10,538.1 10,495.7 -0.2 -1.5 Government 1,653.7 1,649.4 1,554.5 0.6 -6.0 Households 10,978.3 10,980.6 11,006.6 -0.2 0.3 Consumer credits 2,948.5 2,922.3 2,735.5 -1.2 -7.2 Lending for house purchase 6,568.0 6,587.2 6,840.4 0.5 4.1 Other lending 1,461.9 1,471.1 1,430.6 -1.3 -2.1 Bank deposits total 20,285.7 20,804.7 22,517.0 1.3 11.0 Overnight deposits 15,724.2 16,259.4 18,546.9 1.9 18.0 Term deposits 4,561.5 4,545.2 3,970.1 -1.4 -13.0 Government bank deposits, total 721.6 691.7 574.9 1.6 -20.3 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 6,834.0 6,792.9 7,800.9 1.0 14.1 Yields to maturity in % 5 ones if necessary, the yield to maturity of the Slovenian 4 bond declined by slightly more than 20 basis points, to - 0.12%, in the last quarter of 2020. The narrowing 3 of the spread to the German bond was somewhat less 2 pronounced, but, at 45 basis points, this was lower than before the outbreak of the epidemic. 1 0 -1 -2 Slovenia Portugal Spain Italy Ireland Germany Austria 8 7 6 Jan 13 Jan 14Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13 Jan 15Jan 14Jan 16Jan 15Jan 17 Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18 Jan 18 Jan 19Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 20 At the end of last year, the situation on euro area bond markets remained favourable despite the deterioration in epidemiological conditions. With investors expecting economic policymakers to extend existing measures for as long as necessary or adopt new year on year. Their maturity structure, however, keeps deteriorating, as only overnight deposits increase. Both household and corporate deposits are rising at a rapid rate. The dependence of banks on foreign bank sources thus remains low. The share of non-performing claims measured by arrears of more than 90 days remained at 1% in October. Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. Balance of payments Figure 23: Current account 12-month cumulatives, in EUR million 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 -1,000 -2,000 Secondary income Primary income The measures to contain the epidemic were reflected Trade in goods Trade in services in the current account particularly in the segment Current account of trade in goods and services. The current account surplus, which was up again in October, was the highest thus far. It amounted to EUR 3.2 billion (6.9% of estimated GDP) in the last 12-month period. The higher surplus in year-on-year terms was mainly underpinned by a higher surplus in trade in goods – a larger real decline in imports than exports. The terms of trade also improved. The surplus in services trade dropped further, mostly due to a decline in the surplus in travel, while the surplus in services with higher value added (telecommunications, computer and information services, and research and Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19 Jan 20 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 6: Balance of payments development) increased. The strengthening of the current account surplus was also due to lower net outflows of secondary income (mainly due to lower VAT-based contributions to the EU budget and lower payments of taxes and contributions abroad). Net outflows of primary income remained at a similar level. In the structure, net outflows of labour and capital income increased, but Slovenia received more subsidies for agricultural and fisheries policy. I-X 2020, in EUR million Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-X 19 Current account 31986.5 29091.7 2894.8 2453.1 Goods 24433.2 22212.5 2220.7 1265.9 Services 5630.6 3905.9 1724.8 2356.0 Primary income 1250.9 1888.2 -637.3 -654.3 Secondary income 671.7 1085.0 -413.3 -514.4 Capital account 1052.3 1164.8 -112.5 -76.6 Financial account 5085.1 6867.7 1782.6 2457.8 Direct investment 744.3 331.8 -412.6 -529.4 Portfolio investment 3499.7 512.2 -2987.5 452.9 Other investment 925.2 5966.7 5041.5 2658.0 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -999.7 -999.7 81.2 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts. the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows”means total expenditures; “balance”is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows”mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. Public finance Figure 24: Consolidated general government budgetary accounts Jan-Nov, y-o-y growth in % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Revenue Expenditure Expenditure without COVID-19 measures Source: MF, Bulletin of Public Finance; calculations by IMAD. Figure 25: Receipts from the EU budget The deficit of the consolidated general government budgetary accounts6 continued to widen towards the end of the year. It reached EUR 2.6 billion in the first 11 months of 2020. After the improvement in the public finance situation in the third quarter, when revenue was higher than in the same period of 2019, it fell below the 2019 level again in October and November due to the deterioration in epidemiological and thus economic conditions. Expenditure growth in these two months remained similar to the third quarter,7 while investment remained lower than in the same period of 2019. The deficit of the consolidated general government budgetary accounts, which mainly originates from the state budget, thus strengthened again especially in November. An even larger increase is expected for December. Nevertheless, it appears that the deficit will not reach the estimate from the adopted revised state budget (EUR 4.2 million) in the year as a whole. The difference is mainly attributable to lower-than-estimated expenditure growth, which is also related to lower realisation of measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Up to November, EUR 1.7 billion was paid to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic on the expenditure side (compared with the EUR 2.6 million directly budgeted for this purpose), of which around EUR 1 billion was used to finance labour market measures to preserve jobs. 6 The consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 7 Though considerably lower than in the second quarter, when the majority of expenses related to the COVID-19 measures were paid. Total receipts (January–November 2020) Expected reimbursements to the budget 2020 Total receipts (January–November 2019) Expected reimbursements in the revised budget 2019 Common Agricultural Policy Structural Funds Cohesion Fund Other In EUR m Source: MF. Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first 11 months of 2020 (at EUR 137.6 million). In this period, Slovenia received EUR 617.9 million from the EU budget (65.6% of receipts envisaged in the state budget for 2020) and paid EUR 480.3 million into the EU budget (91.2% of planned payments). The bulk of receipts were resources from structural funds8 (42.0% of all reimbursements to the state budget) and resources for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy (38.8%). The share of resources from the EU Cohesion Fund was significantly smaller, at 13.6%. According to SVRK data, 44.5% of funds available under the 2014–2020 financial perspective were paid by the end of September 2020.9 8 The European Regional Development Fund (ERDF); the European Social Fund (ESF). 9 Report on the Implementation of EU Cohesion Policy 2014–2020 for the period from January 2014 to the end of September 2020. Table 7: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-XI 2019 I-XI 2020 EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % REVENUES TOTAL 17,416.7 3.5 16,886.2 -3.0 Tax revenues1 9,300.1 5.0 8,450.4 -9.1 Personal income tax 2,302.0 4.5 2,222.0 -3.5 Corporate income tax 917.3 18.3 695.4 -24.2 Taxes on immovable property 224.4 4.2 222.4 -0.9 Value added tax 3,578.1 3.8 3,261.8 -8.8 Excise duties 1,426.2 -0.9 1,251.3 -12.3 Social security contributions 6,356.9 7.3 6,592.5 3.7 Non-tax revenues 1,031.0 -17.7 1,034.2 0.3 Receipts from the EU budget 539.4 -8.2 623.7 15.6 Other 189.3 -6.3 185.4 -2.0 Category I-XI 2019 I-XI 2020 EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % EXPENDITURE TOTAL 17,070.4 6.4 19,482.1 14.1 Salaries* wages and other personnel expenditures2 4,095.0 8.1 4,527.1 10.6 Expenditure on goods and services 2,424.0 5.3 2,561.9 5.7 Interest payments 778.2 -9.8 764.7 -1.7 Reserves 175.2 8.8 206.6 17.9 Transfers to individuals and households 6,719.5 5.9 7,551.3 12.4 Other current transfers 1,228.7 9.0 2,276.7 85.3 Investment expenditure 1,163.4 9.2 1,113.5 -4.3 Payments to the EU budget 486.4 22.9 480.3 -1.2 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE 346.3 -2,595.9 PRIMARY BALANCE 1,115.4 -1,843.7 Source: MF* Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD* Note: 1 Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance* Tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions* 2 Labour costs include social contributions by the employer* statistical appendix Main indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Winter Forecast 2020 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 2.8 2.2 3.2 4.8 4.4 3.2 -6.6 4.3 4.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 37,634 38,853 40,443 43,009 45,863 48,393 45,972 48,444 51,424 GDP per capita in EUR (current prices) 18,253 18,830 19,589 20,819 22,135 23,165 21,889 22,969 24,288 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,100 22,700 23,600 25,100 26,400 27,700 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 83 83 84 86 87 89 Rate of registered unemployment 13.1 12.3 11.2 9.5 8.2 7.7 8.7 9.2 8.4 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 9.7 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.4 4.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 2.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.7 -5.5 4.4 3.3 Inflation2, year average 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.0 0.6 1.9 Inflation2, end of the year 0.2 -0.4 0.5 1.7 1.4 1.8 -0.9 1.6 1.8 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.0 4.7 6.2 11.1 6.3 4.1 -12.1 7.6 8.6 Exports of goods 6.3 5.3 5.7 11.1 5.9 4.3 -8.9 6.7 5.7 Exports of services 5.0 2.4 8.0 11.2 7.5 3.3 -24.3 11.5 20.5 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 4.2 4.3 6.3 10.7 7.2 4.4 -13.9 9.3 9.5 Imports of goods 3.8 5.1 6.6 10.8 7.7 4.7 -12.9 9.4 8.2 Imports of services 6.1 0.1 4.7 10.6 4.8 3.3 -19.1 8.7 16.8 Current account balance3, in EUR million 1,918 1,483 1,932 2,674 2,680 2,723 3,370 3,115 3,018 As a per cent share relative to GDP 5.1 3.8 4.8 6.2 5.8 5.6 7.3 6.4 5.9 Gross external debt, in EUR million 46,792 46,170 44,325 43,231 42,148 43,796 47.805* As a per cent share relative to GDP 124.3 118.8 109.6 100.5 91.9 90.5 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.329 1.110 1.107 1.129 1.181 1.120 1.138 1.180 1.180 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.6 2.0 4.4 1.9 3.6 4.8 -9.6 4.1 4.6 As a % of GDP 55.0 54.0 54.0 52.6 52.1 52.4 49.9 49.6 49.7 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.2 2.3 2.4 0.4 3.0 1.7 2.4 2.4 1.6 As a % of GDP 18.9 18.8 19.0 18.4 18.2 18.4 20.7 20.4 19.8 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -0.1 -1.2 -3.6 10.2 9.6 5.8 -5.9 10.0 8.5 As a % of GDP 19.1 18.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 19.6 19.7 20.9 21.8 Source: SURS, Bank of Slovenia, Eurostat, IMAD recalculations and forecasts (winter forecast, December 2020). Notes: 1 Measured in purchasing power standard; Eurostat 15.12.2020 2 Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; * end October 2020. Production 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.7 5.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.5 4.4 4.1 1.6 -1.4 -17.4 -2.8 2.6 -1.2 3.1 3.7 B Mining and quarrying 2.5 -0.9 -3.4 6.5 0.5 8.5 -1.6 -10.9 -7.6 -13.7 -9.2 8.5 -7.0 -15.3 -8.4 13.3 C Manufacturing 8.2 5.7 3.5 3.6 3.9 2.5 4.5 4.9 2.3 0.0 -17.7 -2.7 2.6 1.2 2.4 4.3 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 3.2 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 -5.8 0.2 3.6 -2.0 -4.7 -13.9 -13.1 -6.8 3.7 -18.0 10.1 -2.9 CONSTRUCTION2, real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 17.7 19.8 3.3 28.8 14.9 23.1 8.6 -5.2 -3.8 3.3 -12.2 3.4 19.5 4.3 2.9 39.0 Buildings 27.6 16.8 3.5 28.5 2.4 18.7 5.9 -9.4 3.0 -0.9 -15.6 1.4 6.4 -7.5 -4.0 44.9 Civil engineering 14.4 21.1 3.2 29.4 20.5 24.1 10.0 -3.1 -6.2 5.2 -10.3 4.6 25.4 9.6 5.8 32.9 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total 8.2 8.2 5.4 8.8 8.2 7.4 5.3 6.3 2.9 -2.4 -21.5 -7.6 7.7 5.7 7.0 10.2 Transportation and storage 10.8 9.3 4.2 9.6 9.0 8.3 5.7 3.7 -0.7 -4.5 -20.7 -8.5 9.3 3.6 8.6 12.5 Information and communication activities 5.8 3.9 4.9 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.8 3.4 5.4 3.4 -6.2 2.2 3.5 4.3 8.2 3.8 Professional, scientific and technical activities 3.7 16.1 8.6 16.5 17.3 11.4 3.2 16.5 5.4 6.2 -10.1 0.6 16.7 14.2 8.0 13.4 Administrative and support service activities 12.2 7.3 4.7 7.9 2.0 2.5 4.6 6.8 4.3 -7.8 -36.4 -31.2 -2.73 3.99 0.85 4.01 DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 8.5 8.1 4.3 8.3 11.7 10.1 5.2 4.5 -1.5 -4.1 -13.5 -3.0 9.2 9.9 10.4 14.3 Real turnover in retail trade 7.4 4.6 3.4 4.2 11.9 9.1 6.7 4.1 -4.7 -5.3 -11.9 -6.3 8.9 11.0 9.8 12.9 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 14.1 11.6 3.8 15.8 3.3 9.0 2.7 0.0 3.6 -13.7 -25.9 3.8 3.1 1.4 9.8 13.0 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 6.9 9.3 5.2 9.2 14.6 11.2 5.1 6.5 -0.7 0.6 -9.6 -2.9 11.8 11.9 11.2 15.9 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 12.3 10.5 0.5 11.8 14.4 3.1 4.4 -0.1 -5.6 -24.0 -82.9 -13.5 17.0 13.9 -2.1 10.7 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 5.0 -0.1 -2.5 -1.8 2.4 4.4 -3.8 -5.1 -4.1 -23.9 -56.3 172.1 5.5 3.8 -8.8 12.7 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 16.1 15.4 1.7 16.7 21.7 2.2 7.5 1.4 -6.3 -24.1 -92.1 -65.7 24.9 20.2 2.0 8.8 Accommodation and food service activities 8.9 7.1 7.6 8.0 6.7 10.1 7.5 6.8 6.7 -15.4 -59.2 -12.8 7.9 7.0 5.0 15.8 AGRICULTURE BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Confidence indicator in manufacturing 10 8 0 4 7 4 0 0 -2 -3 -28 -4 7 6 7 2 in construction 25 24 21 25 24 24 21 20 19 15 -34 -9 23 26 25 24 in services 13 22 11 20 20 17 13 9 6 7 -22 -5 24 16 17 17 in retail trade 22 14 19 13 14 22 20 20 13 17 -18 12 9 14 26 15 consumer confidence indicator -4 -2 -8 -5 -6 -5 -6 -8 -14 -14 -42 -27 -6 -4 -3 -5 Source: SURS. Notes: 1 Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2019 2020 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 6.3 11.9 4.2 0.0 7.5 0.6 5.2 -1.1 -2.9 -0.4 0.0 2.3 -13.5 -27.4 -12.8 0.0 -1.6 -5.3 -2.4 -7.2 - - 5.2 14.7 4.7 1.4 7.5 2.9 1.8 -5.0 -3.8 -5.3 -1.7 0.6 -14.2 -22.3 -9.9 -3.2 -4.0 -8.1 -6.9 -10.5 - - 5.3 6.7 5.4 -4.0 0.1 -10.4 10.7 3.9 0.9 6.4 2.9 0.5 -39.4 -59.8 -22.9 7.1 9.6 1.8 -0.7 -7.8 - - 7.4 12.0 3.3 0.7 10.6 2.5 6.1 0.1 -3.6 1.4 0.3 4.2 -2.2 -17.7 -10.4 -0.5 -3.8 -5.2 0.2 -4.8 - - Labour market 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 12 1 2 3 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 934.1 951.2 968.4 963.9 965.3 967.8 965.6 974.9 974.9 974.1 971.2 974.1 965.7 964.0 965.4 966.5 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 845.5 872.8 894.2 886.9 885.3 895.5 894.6 901.5 896.5 884.6 884.1 884.6 887.2 881.2 884.7 890.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 25.0 26.3 24.9 27.9 25.6 25.4 23.8 24.8 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 27.9 25.5 25.5 25.7 In industry, construction 269.1 280.9 291.7 287.1 287.5 292.7 292.7 294.0 291.2 288.0 286.0 288.0 287.5 285.5 287.0 290.0 - in manufacturing 193.9 202.6 207.9 206.4 207.4 208.5 207.6 208.4 206.2 202.6 200.1 202.6 207.4 206.9 207.3 207.8 - in construction 55.7 58.4 63.9 60.7 60.4 64.2 65.1 65.8 64.3 64.7 65.1 64.7 60.3 58.9 59.9 62.3 In services 551.3 565.7 577.6 571.9 572.2 577.5 578.0 582.8 579.0 570.2 571.7 570.2 571.8 570.2 572.2 574.4 - in public administration 48.8 49.0 49.0 49.0 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.2 49.0 49.2 49.4 49.2 48.9 48.7 48.8 48.8 -in education, health-services and social work 131.6 135.0 137.8 136.7 137.0 137.8 137.0 139.6 140.4 140.7 141.0 140.7 136.8 136.5 137.0 137.4 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 755.3 780.2 801.9 792.0 792.7 803.0 803.3 808.6 802.4 790.5 790.0 790.5 792.3 788.7 792.1 797.3 In enterprises and organisations 704.3 729.3 749.2 740.3 741.6 749.7 750.0 755.5 751.3 741.3 739.9 741.3 741.2 738.3 741.3 745.2 By those self-employed 51.0 50.9 52.7 51.7 51.1 53.2 53.4 53.2 51.1 49.2 50.1 49.2 51.1 50.4 50.7 52.1 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 90.2 92.6 92.3 94.9 92.6 92.6 91.2 92.9 94.1 94.0 94.1 94.0 94.9 92.5 92.6 92.7 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 88.6 78.5 74.2 77.0 80.0 72.2 71.1 73.4 78.4 89.5 87.1 89.5 78.5 82.8 80.8 76.5 Female 45.4 39.9 37.5 39.2 39.6 36.8 36.6 36.8 38.3 45.0 44.1 45.0 39.1 40.4 39.7 38.6 By age: 15 to 29 17.5 15.1 14.1 16.1 15.5 13.1 12.6 15.0 15.3 18.3 17.1 18.3 15.9 16.2 15.7 14.5 Aged over 50 34.3 31.5 29.7 29.9 31.5 29.6 29.0 28.7 30.6 31.9 31.3 31.9 30.5 32.3 31.7 30.6 Primary education or less 26.7 24.3 23.4 24.0 25.8 22.8 22.1 23.0 25.2 27.8 26.6 27.8 25.1 26.8 26.2 24.4 For more than 1 year 47.0 40.6 38.1 39.1 39.2 38.3 37.9 37.2 37.3 37.5 38.1 37.5 39.0 39.7 39.1 38.7 Those receiving benefits 21.5 20.0 19.3 18.5 23.5 17.4 17.9 18.5 24.5 29.8 25.6 29.8 20.5 24.8 23.8 21.8 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.5 8.3 7.7 8.0 8.3 7.5 7.4 7.5 8.0 9.2 9.0 9.2 8.1 8.6 8.4 7.9 Male 8.5 7.5 6.9 7.2 7.7 6.7 6.5 6.8 7.5 8.4 8.1 8.4 7.5 8.1 7.8 7.2 Female 10.6 9.2 8.5 8.9 9.0 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.6 10.2 10.0 10.2 8.9 9.2 9.0 8.8 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -14.6 -6.5 -0.3 4.8 -0.7 -1.9 -0.3 1.8 0.9 3.8 -1.9 3.8 2.4 4.3 -2.0 -4.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 12.3 11.4 0.8 5.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 Redundancies 70.0 65.1 5.4 17.4 6.5 4.1 4.8 6.2 7.5 9.5 6.0 9.5 6.7 10.6 4.6 4.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 68.6 61.5 4.7 12.4 6.2 4.8 3.9 3.9 5.5 4.8 6.5 4.8 3.3 5.3 5.6 7.6 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.3 21.6 1.8 5.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 FIXED TERM WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 18.0 24.0 32.9 27.0 29.6 32.3 34.2 35.7 35.6 34.9 37.7 34.9 27.9 28.6 29.5 30.6 As % of labour force 1.9 2.5 3.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 Sources: SURS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1 In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2019 2020 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 967.2 968.1 968.0 965.6 964.7 966.6 973.7 974.1 976.8 975.2 975.7 973.8 974.2 974.3 973.6 972.2 970.3 971.0 974.2 893.2 896.1 897.2 893.8 893.2 896.8 901.3 901.7 901.5 895.4 898.3 896.0 885.5 883.9 884.3 882.8 882.1 887.2 890.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 292.0 292.9 293.2 292.9 292.4 292.9 293.8 293.7 294.4 290.5 291.2 291.9 289.1 288.0 286.9 286.3 285.3 286.3 287.4 208.5 208.5 208.5 207.6 207.4 207.7 208.3 208.1 208.8 206.2 206.3 205.9 203.8 202.6 201.3 200.1 199.7 200.4 201.1 63.5 64.3 64.7 65.2 65.0 65.1 65.6 65.8 65.9 63.6 64.2 65.2 64.5 64.6 64.8 65.4 64.8 65.1 65.4 575.8 577.9 578.7 577.1 577.0 580.0 582.7 583.2 582.4 578.6 580.8 577.7 570.1 569.5 570.9 570.1 570.4 574.5 576.7 48.6 49.1 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.2 49.1 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.3 49.5 49.5 137.7 137.9 137.8 136.5 136.3 138.2 139.1 139.8 139.9 139.4 140.6 141.0 140.6 140.6 140.9 140.2 140.3 142.5 143.5 800.7 803.5 804.6 802.7 802.0 805.3 808.4 808.9 808.7 801.2 804.0 801.9 791.5 789.8 790.3 788.9 788.1 792.9 795.8 747.8 750.3 751.2 749.4 748.7 751.9 754.7 755.4 756.3 749.9 752.5 751.6 742.8 740.7 740.5 738.9 738.1 742.6 745.9 53.0 53.3 53.4 53.4 53.3 53.5 53.7 53.5 52.4 51.4 51.5 50.3 48.7 49.1 49.7 50.0 49.9 50.3 49.9 92.5 92.6 92.6 91.0 91.2 91.4 92.9 92.9 92.9 94.1 94.2 94.1 94.0 94.1 94.0 94.0 94.1 94.3 94.8 74.0 72.0 70.7 71.9 71.5 69.8 72.4 72.4 75.3 79.8 77.5 77.9 88.6 90.4 89.4 89.4 88.2 83.8 83.7 84.1 87.3 37.7 36.7 36.1 37.1 37.1 35.7 36.9 36.8 36.9 38.6 37.8 38.5 44.4 45.6 45.1 45.3 44.7 42.2 42.3 43.0 43.8 13.7 13.1 12.6 12.8 12.6 12.4 15.1 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.1 15.3 18.2 18.6 18.1 17.8 17.2 16.2 17.9 17.7 18.3 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.4 29.3 31.2 30.4 30.1 31.8 32.0 31.8 31.8 31.5 30.6 30.1 30.1 30.9 23.4 22.8 22.3 22.3 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.5 24.2 25.9 25.1 24.7 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.8 25.8 25.4 25.6 27.3 38.4 38.4 38.0 38.0 37.8 37.9 37.6 37.2 36.8 37.8 37.3 36.8 37.1 37.6 37.8 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.5 38.7 39.4 17.3 17.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 17.9 18.2 18.7 18.5 25.6 24.1 23.7 28.0 31.2 30.0 27.4 26.2 23.2 23.1 23.5 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.7 8.2 7.9 8.0 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.6 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.8 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.7 8.5 8.7 10.0 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.5 9.5 -2.6 -2.0 -1.3 1.1 -0.3 -1.7 2.6 0.0 2.9 4.5 -2.4 0.4 10.8 1.8 -1.0 0.0 -1.2 -4.4 -0.1 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 3.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 3.4 0.7 0.5 4.5 4.1 3.8 5.8 3.9 4.8 5.9 5.3 7.4 10.6 4.6 7.4 13.9 7.5 7.0 7.7 4.9 5.5 5.5 6.6 7.2 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.3 2.9 5.4 4.6 3.9 3.2 4.7 5.8 6.0 2.4 5.0 7.0 6.5 4.9 8.1 6.4 4.6 2.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.7 31.6 32.3 32.9 33.5 34.1 35.0 35.7 36.3 36.6 37.2 36.6 37.0 37.5 37.5 37.6 37.6 37.9 37.5 37.7 38.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Wages in EUR 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2019 Q3 20 Oct 20 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal in € y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,754 1,808 1,821 2.7 3.4 4.3 3.0 3.3 4.6 3.9 4.5 4.2 3.2 8.8 4.8 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,685 1,717 1,714 2.7 3.8 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 4.0 3.1 2.8 5.5 3.9 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,979 2,090 2,155 2.8 2.4 6.5 2.2 1.3 6.4 6.1 6.0 7.6 4.2 15.8 6.3 Industry (B–E) 1,754 1,767 1,785 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.9 3.0 4.3 3.5 3.1 Trad, market services (GHI) 1,540 1,566 1,544 2.7 4.0 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.3 3.1 3.8 2.5 1.1 4.9 3.8 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,885 1,942 1,929 2.1 3.9 5.1 2.7 5.1 5.7 4.4 5.4 4.8 3.2 7.7 5.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,423 1,472 1,483 0.2 5.3 3.0 6.0 7.8 5.4 3.0 3.8 0.3 5.2 7.7 3.5 B Mining and quarrying 2,246 2,289 2,338 1.2 7.6 0.3 3.9 9.1 -3.0 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.3 9.8 2.8 C Manufacturing 1,717 1,727 1,747 3.2 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.9 2.9 4.2 2.8 3.0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,629 2,625 2,605 4.3 2.9 4.3 1.3 2.2 4.6 2.4 4.7 5.6 6.4 5.3 3.2 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,669 1,706 1,710 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.7 4.5 3.7 2.0 3.9 1.6 2.9 7.7 3.6 F Constrution 1,318 1,391 1,400 2.7 4.2 2.2 4.0 3.9 2.0 1.6 2.8 2.3 2.0 9.4 5.2 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,608 1,647 1,638 3.3 4.2 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.9 3.2 4.5 3.2 2.3 6.1 4.8 H Transportation and storage 1,567 1,553 1,549 1.7 3.3 1.6 2.9 4.6 2.7 2.3 2.0 -0.2 0.3 1.1 1.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,226 1,250 1,121 2.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.6 4.3 5.2 -3.0 -5.9 2.2 J Information and communication 2,373 2,431 2,439 2.4 4.1 5.7 4.4 6.3 6.8 5.9 4.6 5.4 4.0 6.5 4.1 K Financial and insurance activities 2,593 2,540 2,518 3.2 4.8 4.6 2.1 4.8 6.0 2.8 5.3 4.3 2.7 4.1 2.3 L Real estate activities 1,609 1,651 1,649 1.8 0.9 5.2 0.2 2.3 3.7 5.8 5.4 5.5 3.6 7.9 4.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,970 2,024 1,996 3.9 4.2 4.6 2.8 4.1 4.3 4.1 5.0 5.0 2.4 6.3 4.0 N Administrative and support service activities 1,201 1,237 1,230 2.5 5.8 5.1 4.9 7.0 6.1 4.4 6.1 3.6 4.0 7.4 3.9 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2,189 2,296 2,312 4.0 3.2 8.9 2.9 3.4 9.5 9.4 8.6 8.1 3.0 14.2 3.6 P Education 1,837 1,957 1,972 1.7 0.9 6.1 0.5 0.8 5.3 5.4 5.3 8.1 3.8 6.4 8.3 Q Human health and social work activities 1,973 2,080 2,242 3.1 3.4 5.1 3.5 0.1 5.0 4.1 4.5 6.9 5.7 26.5 6.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,779 1,818 1,804 1.7 1.7 4.3 0.5 2.8 5.1 2.7 3.8 5.4 -1.1 -2.4 4.5 S Other service activities 1,427 1,465 1,451 0.9 1.2 4.7 1.3 2.3 4.5 3.2 4.5 6.1 0.1 12.3 3.7 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2019 2020 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4.7 4.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 5.2 3.4 4.9 3.9 4.7 4.1 4.5 5.0 0.3 11.9 9.5 5.5 4.3 5.0 5.1 4.6 4.2 4.4 3.4 3.3 2.9 5.0 2.7 4.4 2.9 3.5 2.9 4.5 5.5 -1.3 7.9 5.5 3.6 2.8 4.3 4.7 2.6 6.3 6.6 5.8 5.8 6.7 6.2 5.4 6.3 6.7 8.6 7.6 4.3 3.4 4.8 20.7 17.5 9.6 7.4 6.2 5.2 9.1 4.4 2.9 4.2 3.2 2.3 4.9 2.2 4.5 3.0 2.7 3.4 4.9 6.6 1.2 6.1 2.6 2.2 1.1 3.8 4.6 2.7 3.9 4.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.4 3.0 3.8 2.5 4.4 0.6 3.6 4.7 -4.9 7.4 6.0 2.1 3.7 3.5 4.1 1.5 5.5 7.3 4.3 4.9 4.0 6.8 3.9 5.7 3.9 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.4 -1.2 8.9 7.6 6.7 4.1 5.9 5.3 3.6 5.4 4.8 3.8 2.7 2.6 5.4 2.3 3.6 5.8 -4.8 0.3 4.1 6.6 5.0 9.0 8.2 6.0 1.9 3.7 5.0 -1.9 3.6 1.5 -2.0 -1.7 -1.8 5.8 -2.5 4.6 3.8 4.8 2.8 1.2 8.2 3.7 14.4 9.2 6.0 -0.9 7.6 1.9 1.9 4.7 2.8 4.6 3.5 2.4 5.0 2.3 4.5 3.0 2.6 3.2 5.0 6.9 0.6 5.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 3.8 4.6 2.8 2.7 6.9 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.2 3.9 5.0 2.9 8.1 5.6 6.9 5.3 6.9 7.2 4.1 4.6 3.3 2.5 3.9 1.3 2.4 2.3 0.6 2.7 2.9 5.2 2.2 4.3 3.0 -2.0 4.0 1.6 3.5 3.6 11.2 6.9 5.2 1.7 3.2 5.9 1.4 2.1 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.6 3.1 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.5 3.9 -1.4 11.5 11.1 6.0 4.8 4.2 6.7 3.9 4.5 5.3 2.0 3.4 4.1 4.4 3.9 5.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 4.6 5.5 -3.1 6.9 7.6 4.3 5.9 4.4 4.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.8 1.8 2.4 4.1 1.1 0.8 -0.2 5.3 -5.1 0.9 2.8 -2.9 3.3 1.6 -1.2 -1.1 0.5 3.8 0.1 4.7 6.0 3.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 3.3 4.7 4.5 7.1 3.9 5.1 4.7 -18.8 -0.1 -8.9 -6.8 1.1 3.8 1.7 -8.5 6.4 8.8 5.9 6.0 5.9 4.3 3.3 6.4 2.9 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.1 1.2 6.7 5.8 6.9 4.1 4.3 3.8 4.1 3.8 12.5 0.6 5.9 1.8 5.9 3.5 6.7 2.0 4.4 6.4 5.6 7.7 -3.1 6.4 -0.4 6.5 0.9 3.6 2.4 2.3 3.8 3.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 5.8 6.7 3.9 5.5 4.6 0.7 7.9 10.6 5.3 5.1 4.8 3.7 3.2 5.0 3.5 5.6 2.9 3.7 5.4 4.5 5.1 5.2 5.6 4.2 5.2 3.4 -1.5 5.9 7.8 5.4 3.1 4.2 4.8 1.6 5.2 5.7 5.7 3.9 3.7 11.1 3.2 4.1 4.0 1.4 5.4 4.8 5.9 1.2 9.3 9.0 4.1 1.8 5.3 4.6 2.3 9.4 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.3 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.9 7.5 4.4 2.1 2.6 11.8 18.1 12.8 2.7 4.4 3.9 6.2 5.2 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.8 6.0 9.4 8.9 4.5 4.1 2.8 8.9 4.9 5.6 10.2 7.2 7.4 7.5 4.8 5.6 3.4 3.5 5.6 3.8 4.4 5.4 6.3 7.6 6.6 4.1 4.0 9.0 38.4 30.6 11.3 9.0 6.9 4.0 13.6 5.0 6.3 -1.3 5.1 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.0 9.2 4.0 2.7 3.0 -9.1 -0.9 -1.4 -4.2 4.4 3.9 5.3 2.4 5.0 4.1 2.1 3.1 4.4 4.2 3.9 5.4 4.1 6.0 8.3 3.3 2.3 -5.0 17.8 15.1 5.1 3.5 4.1 3.4 1.2 Prices and indicators of overall competitiveness 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 1 2 3 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.4 1.8 -1.1 1.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 -0.9 0.0 -0.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.6 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.6 3.3 1.0 1.7 0.4 1.1 2.5 2.4 4.0 4.4 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 0.4 1.9 3.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.3 3.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 Clothing and footwear 0.3 0.5 -5.4 -0.2 0.7 0.5 3.6 0.5 1.3 -3.8 -4.1 -4.5 0.3 0.5 -0.5 2.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 4.7 2.7 -0.6 5.4 4.2 5.3 4.5 2.6 0.7 -5.5 0.7 -0.3 4.7 3.5 3.9 5.1 Furnishing, household equipm. 0.9 0.4 -0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.7 Medical, pharmaceutical produ. 1.3 1.4 4.9 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.0 Transport -0.7 0.1 -5.9 0.6 -1.3 0.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 -7.4 -6.6 -6.7 -0.7 -2.0 -1.6 -0.2 Communications 3.3 -0.4 0.6 2.0 3.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 -1.5 0.0 1.0 0.9 3.3 2.1 3.9 3.1 Recreation and culture 1.9 0.6 -3.9 2.5 2.4 1.3 2.1 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -1.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.9 Education 1.7 5.6 0.7 1.8 2.2 3.5 4.2 5.6 4.8 3.3 2.2 0.6 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.6 Catering services 2.4 3.2 0.6 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 2.4 3.1 2.7 2.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.7 4.4 0.7 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.4 4.1 4.9 3.7 2.9 0.9 1.7 0.8 1.2 2.0 HICP 1.4 2.0 -1.2 1.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.2 1.6 -0.1 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 1.4 0.6 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 Domestic market 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 Non-domestic market 1.6 -0.9 1.8 0.9 -0.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.8 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 Euro area 1.6 -0.7 1.9 1.2 -0.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 -1.5 -0.4 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 Non-euro area 1.7 -1.2 1.7 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 0.1 0.1 -0.2 Import price indices 1.7 -1.4 2.8 1.4 0.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -4.7 -3.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate2 , nominal 0.8 -0.4 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Real (deflator HICP) 0.8 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -1.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 Real (deflator ULC) 0.8 1.0 0.7 -0.1 1.8 1.6 0.7 3.8 2.6 1.6 USD / EUR 1.1815 1.1196 1.1413 1.1412 1.1357 1.1239 1.1116 1.1072 1.1023 1.1006 1.1695 1.1928 1.1384 1.1416 1.1351 1.1302 Sources: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 18 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2019 2020 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 0.5 0.7 2.2 2.9 2.9 1.7 1.5 2.4 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 3.1 3.1 3.6 4.1 3.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 -0.2 0.1 1.5 3.2 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.8 0.7 -3.4 -4.2 -3.8 -1.8 -5.2 -5.3 -1.9 -6.1 -5.4 5.1 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.9 3.9 2.9 2.1 2.7 4.1 3.4 -5.4 -7.8 -8.6 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.9 0.5 1.5 2.2 2.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 0.6 -0.8 -0.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 5.0 4.9 0.8 0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -2.0 -0.9 -1.6 0.1 1.3 -0.3 -1.5 -7.6 -7.8 -6.7 -6.6 -7.1 -6.2 -6.8 -7.4 -5.9 1.7 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -1.2 1.1 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -0.1 -2.3 -2.0 -1.5 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.6 -0.1 1.5 0.6 0.6 2.0 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.6 -0.9 0.7 -0.2 -0.8 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -1.1 -3.9 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.6 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 3.5 3.4 4.5 4.4 5.3 5.4 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.0 0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -1.1 -1.2 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.0 -0.1 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -1.7 -1.2 -1.2 -1.9 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.7 -1.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.7 -2.0 -1.2 -1.1 -2.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -1.8 1.2 0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.4 -2.0 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7 -3.6 -4.9 -5.2 -4.1 -3.5 -3.4 -3.6 -4.1 -3.6 -0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 1.1238 1.1185 1.1293 1.1218 1.1126 1.1004 1.1053 1.1051 1.1113 1.1100 1.0905 1.1063 1.0862 1.0902 1.1255 1.1463 1.1828 1.1792 1.1775 1.1838 1.2170 Balance of payments 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 2,674 2,680 2,723 801 508 716 690 662 655 838 650 915 262 182 63 295 Goods 1,617 1,282 1,330 400 120 414 434 204 278 561 576 741 54 94 -28 107 Exports 28,372 30,817 32,013 7,555 7,922 7,983 8,295 7,831 7,904 7,842 6,417 7,345 2,874 2,809 2,239 2,544 Imports 26,756 29,535 30,682 7,155 7,801 7,569 7,861 7,628 7,625 7,281 5,841 6,603 2,819 2,715 2,267 2,437 Services 2,254 2,625 2,787 779 692 534 691 831 732 549 408 535 287 223 182 198 Exports 7,394 8,104 8,548 2,320 2,148 1,794 2,097 2,431 2,227 1,773 1,450 1,790 754 664 730 569 Imports 5,140 5,478 5,762 1,541 1,456 1,260 1,406 1,600 1,495 1,224 1,042 1,255 467 440 548 371 Primary income -879 -819 -853 -256 -230 -9 -329 -239 -276 -107 -192 -275 -47 -99 -84 63 Receipts 1,381 1,578 1,701 316 411 418 481 355 445 455 366 313 114 108 189 202 Expenditures 2,260 2,397 2,554 572 641 428 810 594 722 562 558 588 161 208 273 140 Secondary income -317 -408 -541 -121 -75 -223 -106 -134 -78 -164 -142 -86 -32 -35 -7 -72 Receipts 828 793 805 173 242 185 188 204 229 198 198 188 81 65 96 59 Expenditures 1,145 1,201 1,346 294 317 407 294 338 307 362 340 273 113 100 104 132 Capital account -324 -225 -187 -28 -120 -27 -11 -30 -120 -54 -18 -26 2 -7 -115 -17 Financial account 2,112 2,524 2,454 702 206 785 522 722 425 809 145 507 337 254 -385 515 Direct investment -495 -934 -748 -462 -229 -323 -193 -120 -112 -175 -118 -105 113 -88 -254 42 Assets 570 373 773 23 97 429 20 116 208 30 197 -79 233 -19 -117 76 Liabilities 1,065 1,307 1,521 485 327 753 213 236 320 205 315 26 120 69 138 34 Portfolio investment 2,990 744 791 996 -515 546 -88 -92 424 -1,940 -1,916 1,281 90 -687 82 -1,507 Financial derivatives -185 -81 -163 24 -31 -184 20 -8 8 53 -32 10 -9 -12 -10 -62 Other investment -287 2,743 2,537 73 965 725 737 975 100 2,822 2,181 -705 131 1,031 -196 2,014 Assets -1,372 2,039 3,424 -369 1,216 696 1,484 1,055 189 3,399 2,030 -645 286 1,038 -108 1,769 Other equity 73 68 84 16 -25 43 35 28 -22 13 19 14 -8 -8 -9 3 Currency and deposits -2,154 1,493 2,836 -309 1,544 -4 1,123 1,058 659 2,751 2,673 -792 142 1,015 387 1,293 Loans -108 215 412 52 74 49 324 57 -18 79 41 55 39 7 28 33 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 5 -7 13 -1 -8 8 1 1 2 2 3 0 -3 -3 -3 3 Trade credit and advances 615 303 42 54 -318 571 -56 -142 -332 403 -545 76 93 25 -436 179 Other assets 197 -33 38 -182 -50 29 56 52 -100 151 -160 1 23 2 -75 259 Liabilities -1,085 -704 887 -442 251 -29 747 80 89 576 -151 60 155 7 89 -245 Other equity 0 2 2 0 2 0 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 Currency and deposits 365 -524 935 242 365 42 327 231 335 416 440 334 121 5 239 -93 Loans -1,846 -482 -158 -83 -297 -107 146 53 -250 40 -256 -327 -50 -3 -245 8 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 5 20 27 -14 -14 40 13 9 -35 40 18 0 -5 -5 -5 13 Trade credit and advances 411 331 62 -201 179 2 116 -140 84 -58 -393 19 67 52 60 -287 Other liabilities -20 -51 19 -385 16 -5 144 -72 -48 138 39 33 22 -43 37 113 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets 89 52 37 70 16 21 44 -33 5 49 29 26 13 10 -7 27 Net errors and omissions -239 69 -81 -71 -182 96 -157 90 -110 24 -488 -382 72 79 -333 237 Sources: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2019 2020 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 163 257 217 305 168 209 240 213 386 300 -30 249 348 241 210 126 315 405 132 378 491 158 150 42 148 244 139 42 22 214 137 -72 134 242 185 166 126 284 358 95 288 343 2,589 2,850 2,785 2,837 2,672 2,871 2,199 2,761 2,905 2,747 2,251 2,575 2,688 2,579 1,834 2,112 2,471 2,686 2,004 2,654 2,830 2,431 2,700 2,744 2,689 2,428 2,732 2,157 2,739 2,691 2,611 2,323 2,441 2,446 2,394 1,669 1,985 2,187 2,328 1,910 2,366 2,487 149 186 286 203 201 283 290 258 301 219 211 211 213 125 133 111 165 181 153 201 233 575 650 735 660 701 856 815 760 759 697 770 608 621 544 460 445 544 638 575 577 618 426 463 449 457 500 573 525 502 458 478 559 396 408 420 327 335 379 457 422 376 385 -38 -34 -83 -18 -227 -156 -50 -33 -78 -40 -159 1 -53 -54 -49 -56 -87 -104 -92 -79 -63 93 123 123 214 143 122 106 127 130 144 172 187 138 130 134 131 102 107 102 104 117 131 158 207 233 371 278 157 159 207 184 331 186 192 184 183 187 189 211 193 183 180 -106 -44 -27 -28 -51 -57 -42 -34 -52 -16 -10 -97 -53 -14 -40 -56 -47 -29 -24 -33 -21 67 59 71 60 56 67 62 75 70 74 85 66 55 78 73 60 65 71 55 62 88 172 103 99 89 107 124 104 109 122 90 96 162 108 92 113 115 112 100 78 95 110 -19 9 -9 15 -18 -10 -10 -9 -9 29 -139 -17 -17 -19 -4 -3 -10 -16 2 -13 -15 430 -160 187 377 -42 497 -213 438 429 182 -186 251 335 222 269 -105 -19 139 123 244 322 -393 28 -127 -27 -38 -45 -46 -29 107 -17 -201 -6 -65 -103 -290 -9 181 21 -171 46 -15 176 177 -21 115 -74 101 -91 106 161 59 -11 100 134 -204 -126 173 149 -209 -105 234 184 569 149 106 142 -36 146 -44 134 54 76 190 106 199 -101 164 182 -31 -229 67 189 199 2,166 -113 175 41 -303 -282 -17 207 86 -48 386 -848 -158 -934 -1,575 -490 150 261 494 526 -412 -56 -66 8 3 10 -1 -9 3 3 1 4 14 11 28 -17 -8 -7 5 2 3 -5 -1,254 -36 106 354 277 863 -152 264 221 260 -381 1,070 535 1,218 2,143 410 -372 -163 -203 -339 743 -1,307 234 221 771 491 843 89 123 177 409 -396 886 795 1,718 1,850 371 -191 -244 -240 -162 1,183 36 4 12 12 12 8 10 10 -8 -8 -7 5 4 5 4 6 9 5 5 4 5 -1,461 165 199 564 360 904 196 -42 38 394 227 690 533 1,528 2,315 484 -127 -356 -132 -304 844 11 6 13 132 179 -2 28 31 -25 11 -5 14 27 38 21 8 12 -35 46 44 69 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 195 196 19 -27 -47 -80 -178 117 184 -15 -500 53 251 98 -368 -163 -14 96 -124 104 225 -90 -140 -22 90 -12 12 33 7 -13 26 -113 124 -21 48 -122 34 -72 46 -35 -10 40 -53 269 115 418 214 -20 241 -141 -44 148 -15 -184 260 501 -293 -39 181 -81 -37 178 440 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 52 92 116 119 45 187 -1 144 20 171 4 66 346 299 -48 188 169 88 77 221 -185 70 53 70 24 152 172 -271 -239 32 -43 -2 112 -70 -93 -5 -158 -113 -74 -139 53 13 13 4 4 4 3 3 3 -12 -12 -12 13 13 13 6 6 6 0 0 0 0 151 137 -69 152 33 -173 -106 139 49 104 -68 -274 76 140 -502 -66 175 -122 -37 179 176 -114 -4 36 74 34 -46 -15 -11 15 4 -66 74 -7 72 -4 73 -30 -14 -13 61 -10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -33 27 25 7 12 -37 11 -7 12 -15 7 22 13 14 9 -9 30 15 2 10 11 286 -426 -22 57 -192 298 -442 234 52 -147 -16 20 4 0 63 -228 -323 -250 -11 -121 -153 310 328 310 324 315 340 261 352 336 344 333 252 316 282 229 277 301 325 238 334 N/A 1,394 1,504 1,488 1,494 1,407 1,556 1,223 1,458 1,552 1,442 1,102 1,397 1,423 1,389 982 1,068 1,242 1,343 1,078 1,383 N/A 967 1,055 1,028 1,147 1,077 1,128 828 1,157 1,204 1,165 920 1,326 1,172 1,282 861 1,085 1,208 1,270 897 1,236 N/A 322 386 369 372 362 386 266 403 374 389 424 330 309 298 214 298 337 337 276 330 N/A 1,507 1,629 1,734 1,620 1,437 1,656 1,313 1,667 1,591 1,546 1,312 1,498 1,465 1,475 1,001 1,157 1,236 1,405 1,157 1,410 N/A 769 848 1,064 852 900 1,029 747 936 1,246 971 1,015 959 1,019 1,031 725 801 1,047 1,017 911 918 N/A Monetary indicators and 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 interest rates 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Claims of the BoS on central government 6,247 6,290 7,719 6,915 7,042 7,041 7,059 7,088 7,165 7,256 7,023 7,152 7,219 7,327 Central government (S,1311) 5,170 5,154 4,696 4,870 4,877 4,831 4,905 4,939 4,937 4,980 4,805 4,819 4,944 5,089 Other government (S,1312,1313,1314) 571 576 602 560 562 554 559 558 580 588 587 583 577 581 Households (S,14, 15) 9,733 9,765 10,981 10,075 10,161 10,231 10,296 10,339 10,370 10,397 10,426 10,507 10,570 10,628 Non-financial corporations (S,11) 9,644 9,682 9,589 9,648 9,647 9,647 9,656 9,628 9,496 9,665 9,676 9,681 9,637 9,571 Non-monetary financial institutions (S,123, 124, 125) 1,566 1,627 1,661 1,605 1,592 1,593 1,497 1,503 1,502 1,503 1,490 1,486 1,484 1,482 Monetary financial institutions (S,121, 122) 3,886 3,682 5,230 4,269 4,186 4,060 3,614 3,904 4,275 4,247 4,380 4,207 3,963 4,099 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 25,496 25,363 27,913 25,959 26,051 25,973 25,600 25,921 26,181 26,367 26,516 26,385 26,138 26,329 In foreign currency 528 545 391 489 491 485 467 451 446 435 432 434 420 422 Securities, total 4,450 4,487 4,382 4,477 4,381 4,356 4,354 4,393 4,429 4,475 4,397 4,433 4,580 4,659 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Overnight deposits 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Time deposits with maturity of up 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.19 to one year New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, v % 3-month rates -0.329 -0.322 -0.356 -0.321 -0.319 -0.319 -0.318 -0.316 -0.312 -0.308 -0.308 -0.309 -0.311 -0.312 6-month rates -0.260 -0.266 -0.302 -0.269 -0.267 -0.268 -0.264 -0.257 -0.241 -0.236 -0.232 -0.230 -0.231 -0.237 3-month rates -0.732 -0.735 -0.737 -0.725 -0.726 -0.731 -0.741 -0.745 -0.735 -0.704 -0.713 -0.707 -0.715 -0.713 6-month rates -0.658 -0.653 -0.684 -0.647 -0.649 -0.652 -0.662 -0.667 -0.659 -0.639 -0.652 -0.648 -0.650 -0.656 Sources: BoS, EUROSTAT, 0.01 2019 2020 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7,606 7,631 7,913 7,791 7,819 7,817 7,719 7,624 7,744 7,399 7,662 8,307 9,007 9,766 10,011 10,438 11,012 11,421 5,058 5,070 5,007 5,037 4,959 4,928 4,696 4,410 4,455 4,753 4,859 4,838 4,884 4,962 4,872 4,705 4,701 4,640 577 570 567 574 573 577 602 613 616 613 614 612 602 601 608 602 598 607 10,642 10,703 10,781 10,833 10,950 10,978 10,981 10,982 11,005 10,954 10,882 10,890 10,828 10,884 10,926 10,970 11,025 11,007 9,749 9,738 9,878 9,868 9,869 9,882 9,589 9,794 9,871 10,070 9,971 9,808 9,711 9,668 9,597 9,562 9,552 9,548 1,496 1,503 1,493 1,486 1,479 1,481 1,661 1,674 1,674 1,675 1,663 1,657 1,656 1,667 1,666 1,656 1,653 1,642 4,001 4,335 4,067 3,894 4,011 4,531 5,230 5,403 5,138 5,461 5,889 6,555 7,206 7,389 7,390 7,096 7,266 7,729 26,381 26,725 26,651 26,509 26,728 27,331 27,913 27,860 27,687 28,145 28,388 28,896 29,354 29,514 29,499 29,630 29,858 30,299 419 416 420 412 398 392 391 389 390 389 390 387 388 374 368 354 352 343 4,685 4,727 4,666 4,704 4,642 4,581 4,382 4,554 4,608 4,910 5,015 4,994 5,062 5,204 5,116 4,528 4,499 4,447 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.1 0.04 0.15 0.21 0.2 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.15 -0.329 -0.365 -0.408 -0.418 -0.413 -0.401 -0.395 -0.391 -0.409 -0.417 -0.254 -0.270 -0.376 -0.441 -0.480 -0.491 -0.509 -0.521 -0.279 -0.347 -0.405 -0.394 -0.362 -0.337 -0.336 -0.330 -0.355 -0.365 -0.192 -0.142 -0.223 -0.346 -0.433 -0.463 -0.494 -0.509 -0.717 -0.751 -0.817 -0.812 -0.774 -0.712 -0.711 -0.679 -0.707 -0.761 -0.589 -0.619 -0.659 -0.692 -0.710 -0.751 -0.769 -0.771 -0.673 -0.719 -0.802 -0.771 -0.711 -0.650 -0.639 -0.624 -0.663 -0.703 -0.540 -0.575 -0.594 -0.647 -0.658 -0.707 -0.727 -0.729 Public finance 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 12 1 2 3 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, EUR m TOTAL REVENUES 16,803.3 18,593.6 19,232.3 4,607.9 5,102.5 4,518.9 4,944.0 4,671.6 5,097.8 4,649.4 4,094.2 4,892.6 1,768.8 1,547.5 1,401.3 1,570.2 Current revenues 16,251.4 17,575.9 18,293.3 4,251.7 4,803.5 4,276.0 4,730.5 4,478.2 4,808.7 4,409.0 3,917.7 4,634.3 1,541.0 1,529.5 1,372.4 1,374.1 Tax revenues 15,162.0 16,225.3 17,179.1 3,914.8 4,297.6 4,103.3 4,350.6 4,169.7 4,555.6 4,159.4 3,578.0 4,343.3 1,443.7 1,473.5 1,315.3 1,314.5 Taxes on income and profit 2,967.0 3,296.4 3,614.0 651.8 868.3 850.4 1,058.4 717.7 987.4 879.9 692.0 764.7 316.1 289.6 275.3 285.4 Social security contributions 6,092.1 6,549.8 7,021.3 1,622.4 1,715.0 1,710.3 1,734.9 1,745.5 1,830.6 1,819.7 1,603.2 1,954.5 623.7 575.5 563.7 571.1 Taxes on payroll and workforce 21.3 21.6 23.2 5.0 6.1 5.3 5.9 5.4 6.6 5.9 4.0 5.6 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 Taxes on property 274.2 277.9 296.4 106.7 78.2 26.3 67.6 120.9 81.6 31.0 48.6 111.3 15.7 10.6 8.1 7.6 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,722.8 5,989.3 6,126.7 1,500.6 1,632.4 1,427.8 1,490.3 1,565.7 1,643.0 1,376.4 1,069.0 1,565.1 479.6 531.1 503.3 393.4 Taxes on international trade & transactions 83.3 89.8 98.6 22.7 23.2 25.5 25.6 25.5 22.1 24.0 24.5 25.3 6.9 7.3 8.9 9.2 Other taxes 1.3 0.5 -1.1 5.6 -25.6 57.8 -32.0 -11.1 -15.8 22.5 136.7 -83.4 -0.5 57.6 -45.8 46.0 Non-tax revenues 1,089.4 1,350.6 1,114.2 336.9 505.9 172.6 380.0 308.5 253.1 249.6 339.7 291.0 97.3 56.0 57.1 59.5 Capital revenues 91.2 152.8 136.4 43.9 43.1 23.9 31.2 34.4 46.9 31.2 20.1 31.3 14.0 7.6 8.2 8.1 Grants 9.5 12.4 13.8 7.1 3.6 5.2 1.1 6.3 1.2 8.1 1.4 6.9 2.0 0.0 5.0 0.1 Transferred revenues 52.3 55.6 58.3 51.4 3.3 1.8 3.1 50.3 3.1 0.2 21.7 30.6 2.7 0.1 1.7 0.0 Receipts from the EU budget 399.0 796.9 730.5 253.8 249.0 212.1 178.0 102.4 238.0 200.9 133.3 189.6 209.0 10.2 13.9 187.9 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, EUR m TOTAL EXPENDITURES 17,102.0 18,068.0 18,968.8 4,387.6 5,060.6 4,689.9 4,506.0 4,705.7 5,067.2 5,024.6 5,703.6 5,250.2 2,023.4 1,572.4 1,502.3 1,615.1 Current expenditures 7,733.0 7,966.5 8,228.3 1,877.2 2,142.1 2,116.1 2,010.6 2,007.6 2,094.0 2,359.6 2,074.0 2,201.0 853.5 689.2 648.0 779.0 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,938.1 4,167.9 4,470.5 1,016.8 1,079.1 1,069.5 1,178.3 1,101.6 1,121.2 1,182.5 1,318.2 1,244.5 381.2 342.3 360.4 366.8 Expenditures on goods and services 2,626.6 2,633.7 2,728.0 640.6 798.5 600.5 667.6 673.8 786.0 687.4 661.7 736.7 331.5 194.2 186.8 219.5 Interest payments 985.3 867.9 791.5 190.3 69.5 404.2 122.7 175.7 88.9 442.4 53.7 187.0 4.8 145.4 91.9 166.9 Reserves 183.0 296.9 238.4 29.4 195.0 42.0 42.1 56.4 97.9 47.3 40.5 32.8 136.0 7.3 8.9 25.8 Current transfers 7,912.9 8,236.6 8,704.2 2,071.1 2,103.7 2,187.9 2,107.1 2,201.2 2,208.1 2,308.7 3,219.2 2,632.9 765.5 766.3 693.7 727.9 Subsidies 425.4 443.9 467.9 52.7 127.5 161.8 113.4 53.5 139.3 167.9 711.7 305.5 84.1 122.5 8.6 30.6 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,665.1 6,925.8 7,323.9 1,811.9 1,720.5 1,784.6 1,816.5 1,912.6 1,810.3 1,902.6 2,253.7 2,061.9 582.4 576.9 607.1 600.5 Current transfers to non­profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 748.0 793.5 827.7 193.4 232.9 216.6 163.1 215.3 232.7 215.0 242.6 248.9 92.6 56.2 68.3 92.1 Current transfers abroad 74.3 73.4 84.7 13.1 22.9 25.0 14.1 19.8 25.9 23.2 11.2 16.6 6.3 10.6 9.7 4.7 Capital expenditures 891.0 1,159.9 1,252.9 292.4 558.9 156.1 240.3 315.4 541.2 172.8 232.7 263.2 275.8 44.2 55.2 56.7 Capital transfers 186.6 271.6 273.6 42.1 145.3 24.9 49.3 57.8 141.6 29.6 42.9 68.0 90.9 7.2 8.1 9.6 Payments to the EU budget 378.5 433.4 509.7 104.8 110.5 204.8 98.8 123.8 82.3 154.0 134.7 85.1 37.8 65.6 97.3 41.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -298.7 525.6 263.5 220.3 41.8 -171.0 438.0 -34.2 30.6 -375.3 -1,609.5 -357.6 -254.6 -25.0 -101.1 -44.9 Source: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2019 2020 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1,702.7 1,622.5 1,618.9 1,461.5 1,556.0 1,654.1 1,669.3 1,612.8 1,815.6 1,678.4 1,483.4 1,487.6 1,315.0 1,160.1 1,619.1 1,660.1 1,602.2 1,630.3 1,644.2 1,605.9 1,623.1 1,542.0 1,565.5 1,438.2 1,539.6 1,500.4 1,626.9 1,576.5 1,605.3 1,638.1 1,438.0 1,332.9 1,256.3 1,097.2 1,564.2 1,607.3 1,533.8 1,493.2 1,585.1 1,531.0 1,545.1 1,400.4 1,405.1 1,308.2 1,461.2 1,400.2 1,535.2 1,498.3 1,522.1 1,581.5 1,358.8 1,219.1 1,171.9 940.5 1,465.6 1,476.5 1,466.9 1,399.9 1,511.1 1,451.1 426.4 300.1 332.0 126.7 308.1 282.9 305.1 313.3 369.0 296.6 292.1 291.3 190.1 204.9 296.9 158.5 302.0 304.2 281.9 300.4 580.1 576.6 578.2 583.8 582.3 579.4 579.4 586.8 664.4 615.1 599.2 605.4 391.2 526.4 685.5 681.5 648.2 624.9 605.4 609.7 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 18.8 19.9 28.9 35.7 36.6 48.5 35.8 30.4 15.4 10.1 7.6 13.3 13.1 14.7 20.8 40.0 38.7 32.6 45.8 32.1 541.8 492.5 456.0 564.8 522.0 478.9 601.5 575.0 466.6 631.2 446.7 298.5 372.7 285.5 410.8 582.5 510.9 471.7 600.1 506.5 9.3 8.3 8.0 10.2 8.1 7.2 8.0 7.4 6.8 7.2 7.9 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.9 9.0 10.5 -33.1 1.2 -0.1 -15.2 2.5 1.6 3.4 -16.6 -2.6 19.2 3.4 -0.1 195.5 -100.4 41.7 3.8 -42.9 -44.3 -33.1 -10.0 78.0 141.6 160.4 130.0 78.4 100.1 91.6 78.2 83.2 56.6 79.2 113.8 84.4 156.7 98.6 130.8 66.9 93.3 74.0 79.9 10.4 11.5 9.3 15.0 7.3 12.1 15.3 11.9 19.7 11.3 12.2 7.8 5.7 6.3 8.1 10.9 9.8 10.5 17.8 14.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 5.6 1.2 3.7 -3.8 1.0 5.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 6.0 0.2 0.1 1.5 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.2 50.1 0.0 -0.2 3.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 21.4 0.5 30.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 67.2 68.7 42.1 8.1 8.4 85.9 25.9 20.9 191.1 27.9 27.9 145.1 51.8 56.3 25.2 40.9 28.0 120.6 41.0 58.9 1,491.8 1,454.3 1,559.9 1,700.8 1,487.7 1,517.2 1,540.6 1,628.2 1,898.4 1,723.2 1,498.0 1,803.4 1,730.1 1,755.2 2,218.4 1,880.1 1,644.0 1,726.0 1,668.8 1,834.8 700.9 605.5 704.2 691.1 657.8 658.6 642.1 696.0 755.9 799.9 625.1 934.5 684.8 647.1 742.1 754.3 682.0 764.7 681.2 744.5 355.8 363.1 459.4 375.1 368.2 358.2 375.5 370.3 375.4 401.9 387.1 393.5 380.8 411.5 525.9 469.8 391.6 383.1 375.3 406.7 221.0 222.5 224.1 250.8 204.7 218.3 246.0 236.1 303.9 236.3 203.5 247.6 251.3 217.0 193.3 231.6 205.0 300.1 228.3 247.9 114.8 4.1 3.8 47.2 56.3 72.2 8.8 66.9 13.3 153.2 21.3 267.9 43.3 4.2 6.2 45.8 68.6 72.6 14.8 66.8 9.3 15.8 17.0 18.0 28.6 9.9 11.9 22.8 63.2 8.6 13.3 25.5 9.4 14.4 16.6 7.1 16.8 8.9 62.8 23.1 677.8 715.9 713.4 849.6 668.4 683.1 711.5 740.5 756.0 781.6 759.5 767.6 887.4 945.4 1,386.5 986.3 830.7 815.9 799.3 867.8 26.5 39.8 47.1 19.9 16.5 17.0 33.1 49.3 56.8 82.8 39.7 45.4 53.1 183.9 474.8 224.6 46.7 34.1 54.8 77.6 613.0 600.3 603.2 745.7 578.4 588.4 605.9 599.9 604.4 623.5 643.0 636.0 742.7 678.2 832.8 666.2 695.2 700.4 657.8 675.3 33.1 69.9 60.1 77.0 63.0 75.3 70.2 75.7 86.8 66.5 68.5 80.0 87.2 78.7 76.7 89.0 85.6 74.3 82.4 90.1 5.1 6.0 3.0 6.9 10.5 2.3 2.4 15.5 8.0 8.8 8.4 6.1 4.3 4.6 2.2 6.4 3.2 7.0 4.4 24.8 67.0 88.2 85.2 102.0 100.3 113.1 122.9 141.7 276.6 53.5 56.9 62.4 104.5 87.7 40.5 84.8 87.4 91.0 114.3 124.5 15.3 16.9 17.0 17.1 19.7 21.0 24.0 31.0 86.6 11.0 8.0 10.5 11.0 15.3 16.6 26.9 22.3 18.8 32.1 33.5 30.9 27.7 40.1 41.0 41.5 41.3 40.0 19.0 23.4 77.1 48.5 28.4 42.3 59.7 32.7 27.8 21.7 35.6 41.9 64.6 210.9 168.2 58.9 -239.3 68.3 136.9 128.8 -15.3 -82.8 -44.8 -14.6 -315.8 -415.1 -595.1 -599.3 -220.0 -41.9 -95.7 -24.6 -228.9 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, EC – European Commission, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EMMI – European Money Markets Institute, ERDF – European Regional Development Fund, ESF – European Social Fund, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European union, EUR – Euro, EURIBOR – Euro Interbank Offer Rate, reference interest rate for short-term interbank deposits in euros, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, GDP– Gross domestic product, GNI – gross national income, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, MF – Ministry of Finance, NEER – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OPEC -Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PMI – Purchasing Managers' Index, REER – Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SVRK – Government Office for Development and European Cohesion Policy, USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added tax, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 – Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 – Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29 – Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30 – Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 – Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D – Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E – Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J– Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AU-Australia, AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CA-Canada, CH-Switzerland, CL-Chile, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, HR-Croatia, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IS-Iceland, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, KR-South Korea, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, MX-Mexico, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. slovenian economic mirror No. 1, Vol. XXVII, 2021