© Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), Ljubljana ISSN 1581-0267 17 UDK/UDC: 502.58:614.8:711(234.3)(497.14) Prejeto/Received: 12. 11. 2004 Pregledni znanstveni članek – Review scientific paper Sprejeto/Accepted: 28. 6. 2005 PREVENTIVNO OBVLADOV ANJE TVEGANJ ZARADI NARA VNIH NEV ARNOSTI – POSTOPKI V ALPSKIH DRŽA V AH IN SLOVENIJI PREVENTIVE MANAGEMENT OF RISKS DUE TO NATURAL HAZARDS – PROCEDURES IN THE ALPINE COUNTRIES AND IN SLOVENIA Blažo ĐUROVI Ć, Matjaž MIKOŠ Skladen prostorski razvoj obmo čij, ogroženih zaradi naravnih nevarnosti, zahteva kakovostne teoreti čne zasnove, prakti čno zakonodajo in pravilno izvedbo postopka analize, vrednotenja in obvladovanja tveganj. Preventivni na čin obvladovanja tveganj je dandanes prevladujo č pristop k presoji prostorskih planov, programov in politik. Prispevek se osredoto ča na družbeno-pravni vidik takega pristopa v Sloveniji in povzema razmere v alpskih državah. Pri tem je dan poudarek pregledu postopkov v izbranih državah. Klju čne besede: prostorsko na črtovanje, naravne nevarnosti, preventiva, tveganje, upravljanje s tveganjem, Alpe, zakonodaja A harmonious spatial development of the areas endangered by natural hazards demands quality theoretical designs, practical legislation, and adequate realization of risk analysis, assessment, and management procedure. The preventive risk management is nowadays the predominant approach to the consideration of spatial plans, programmes, and policies. The paper is focused on the socio- legal aspect of such approach in Slovenia, and summarizes the situation in the alpine countries. Doing this, the stress is given to an overview of procedures in selected countries. Key words: spatial planning, natural hazards, prevention, risk, risk management, the Alps, legal acts 1. UVOD Sodobna družbena ureditev implicira odgovornost države pri varovanju človeških življenj in materialnih dobrin. S skokovitim naraš čanjem stopnje izkoriš čenosti in izrabljenosti življenjskega prostora so se zlasti v zadnjih stotih letih poleg pozitivnih za čeli pojavljati tudi negativni stranski u činki, ki se na podro čju prostorskega na črtovanja kažejo v nastanku konfliktnih obmo čij. Konfliktna obmo čja se matemati čno gledano pojavijo na preseku dveh površin (površine območja nevarnostnega potenciala in površine obmo čja škodnega potenciala; slika 1) in jih je treba obravnavati z vidika družbeno-kulturoloških zaznav naravnih nevarnosti in naravnih nesre č. Opozorimo, da pomeni naravna nesre ča (angl. natural disaster, fr. catastrophe naturel, nem. Naturkatastrophe, it. disastro naturale) že udejanjeno naravno nevarnost (potres, zemljinski plaz, podor, drobirski tok, snežni 1. INTRODUCTION The contemporary arrangement of society implies the responsibility of state in protecting human lives and material assets. With rapid increase of the degree of habitat utilisation and exploitation, especially in the last hundred years, besides positive also negative side effects began to appear, manifesting as the generation of conflict areas in the field of spatial planning. From the mathematical point of view, the conflict areas have appeared at the intersection of two surfaces (surface of hazard area and surface of damage potential area; Figure 1), and it is necessary to consider them from the aspect of socio-cultural perception of natural hazards and natural disasters. We should emphasize that the term natural disaster (Fr. catastrophe naturel, Ger. Natur- katastrophe, It. disastro naturale) means a realised natural hazard (i.e. earthquake, Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 18 plaz), ki jo spremlja dejanska škoda, medtem ko je naravna nevarnost (angl. natural hazard, fr. aléa naturel, nem. Naturgefahr, it. pericolo naturale) potencialnega zna čaja in vedno nastopa v zvezi s škodnim potencialom (življenja ljudi oziroma možna neposredna in posredna materialna škoda). Zaznavanje in odnos posameznika ali skupine posameznikov ter vrednostni sistem so klju č do pravilnega razumevanja tveganja (angl. risk, fr. risque, nem. Risiko, it. rischio), ki nastane na konfliktnih obmo čjih. landslide, rock fall, debris flow, snow avalanche) accompanied by actual damage, while natural hazard (Fr. aléa naturel, Ger. Naturgefahr, It. pericolo naturale) has a potential character and is always associated with the damage potential (individual lives resp. possible direct and indirect material damages). Perception and individual or collective attitude as well as the value system are a key part of a correct comprehension of the risk (Fr. risque, Ger. Risiko, It. rischio) that occurs in conflict areas. Slika 1. Parametri dolo čitve tveganja (Romang, 2004) zaradi nevarnih naravnih procesov, kot so npr. potresi, zemljinski plazovi, podori, drobirski tokovi ali snežni plazovi. Figure 1. Risk determination parameters (Romang, 2004) due to dangerous natural processes, such as earthquakes, landslides, rock falls, debris flows or snow avalanches. NEVARNOSTNI POTENCIAL ŠKODNI POTENCIAL T V E G A N J E procesi vrsta intenziteta verjetnost nastopa objekti vrsta vrednost ob čutljivost (ranljivost) verjetnost prisotnosti (izpostavljenost) spremembe spremembe ukrepi ukrepi HAZARD POTENTIAL DAMAGE POTENTIAL R I S K processes type intensity occurrence probability objects type value sensitivity (vulnerability) presence probability (exposure) changes changes measures measures Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 19 Med posameznimi pojmi najlaže lo čimo po analogiji s primerom dveh oseb, ki plujeta po morju in sta namenjeni iz pristaniš ča A v pristaniš če B. Nevihtna nevarnost lahko nastopi nekje na poti med A in B, verjetnost nastopa in magnituda nevarnosti v dolo čeni to čki med A in B (mesto nevarnosti) pa sta odvisni od vremenskih dejavnikov. Ko osebi zaplujeta na obmo čje nevarnosti (morje), postaneta ogroženi osebi ali ogroženca. Tveganje, ki ga sprejmeta (na primer uni čenje plovila, poškodbe, smrt) ob podajanju na obmo čje nevarnosti – in s tem izrabita priložnost (na primer hitrejšega prihoda v pristaniš če B kot po kopnem), dolo ča še njuna ranljivost, ki je odvisna od tehni čnega stanja plovil, njunih sposobnosti, na čina plovbe in drugega. K ranljivosti lahko štejemo tudi njuno izpostavljenost (verjetnost, da se nahajata na mestu nevarnosti). Vrednost plovila, predmetov in potnikov v njem je vrednost ogrožencev. Nevarnost je za obe osebi enaka, njuna ogroženost in sprejeto tveganje pa ne! Opazimo, da pri osebi 1 tveganja (izguba materialne dobrine!) prakti čno ni, saj ta svoje plovilo zaznava kot “že odsluženo in amortizirano”, a še vedno konstrukcijsko zanesljivo in tehni čno brezhibno. Pri osebi 2, ki pluje s popolnoma novo jadrnico enake velikosti (in brez kasko zavarovanja vodnih plovil!), se tveganje za izrabo priložnosti mo čno pove ča, čeprav je ranljivost enaka. Če bi oseba 1 plula z veliko manjšo in tehni čno neizpravno jadrnico, bi se njeno tveganje opazno pove čalo. Pri nespremenljivi nevarnosti se torej tveganje lahko mo čno spreminja v odvisnosti od ranljivosti in vrednosti ogroženca. Differentiation between individual concepts is most easily made by the analogy with the example of two people navigating by the sea, headed from port A to port B. Storm hazard can occur somewhere on the way between A and B, while hazard occurence probability and magnitude in certain point between A and B (hazard place) depend from weather factors. When two persons navigate to a hazard area (the sea) they become endangered persons or endangered elements. The risk they accept (for instance destruction of vessel, injuries, death) by seting out on a hazard area – and by that exploiting the opportunity (for instance of faster arrival at port B as by the mainland) – is determined also by their vulnerability, which depends of the technical condition of vessels, their abilities, modes of sailing and other. We can also add their exposure (probability that they are present in a hazard place). Value of the vessel, objects and passengers is the value of endangered elements. The hazard is equal for both persons but their endangerment and the accepted risk are not! There is practically no risk (of material loss!) for person 1, who perceives his own vessel as “disused and depreciated” but still constructionally reliable and technically flawless. For person 2, who navigates a completely new sailboat of equal size (and without insurance policy for sailboats!), the risk for taking advantage of the opportunity increases enormously, even though the vulnerability remains equal. If person 1 would navigate the smaller sailboat with technical flaws, the risk this person accepted would noticeably increase. So, at a constant hazard the risk strongly varies in dependence of vulnerability and of value of endangered elements at risk. 2. OPREDELITEV PREVENTIVNEGA OBVLADOV ANJA TVEGANJA Zgornji primer napeljuje na misel, da je tveganje odvisno od treh dejavnikov: nevarnosti, ranljivosti in vrednosti ogroženca. Ena čbe, ki povezujejo te štiri parametre, so praviloma lastne posameznim avtorjem. Navedimo eno izmed njih (CENAT, 2004): 2. DEFINITION OF PROTECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT The case above leads us into thinking that the risk depends on three factors: hazard, vulnerability and value of endangered elements. Equations linking these four parameters differ from author to author. We state one of them (CENAT, 2004): Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 20 V R N T ⋅ ⋅ = (1) T (tveganje): Pri čakovane izgube (smrtne žrtve, poškodovanci, škoda na premoženju in motnje v ekonomski dejavnosti) zaradi dolo čene nevarnosti in za neko površino ter referen čno obdobje. Na podlagi matemati čnih izra čunov je tveganje zmnožek nevarnosti, ranljivosti in vrednosti ogrožencev. N (nevarnost): Dogodek ali fizikalno stanje, ki je potencialen vzrok smrtnih žrtev, poškodovancev, škode na premoženju, škode na infrastrukturi, izgub poljš čin, okoljskih škod, prekinitev poslovanja ali drugih vrst poškodb ali izgub. Magnituda pojava, verjetnost njegovega nastopa in razsežnost ter jakost njegovega u činka lahko variirajo, čeprav jih je v številnih primerih mogo če predvideti ali oceniti. R (ranljivost): Zna čilnost človeškega obnašanja, socialnih in fizikalnih okolij, ki opisuje stopnjo dovzetnosti (ali odpornosti) učinkom npr. naravnih nevarnosti. Ranljivost je dolo čena s kombiniranjem zavedanja o nevarnosti, stanja človeških naselbin in infrastrukture, javne politike in administracije in organizacijske mo či pri obvladovanju nesreč. Revš čina je v mnogih krajih sveta eden glavnih vzrokov ranljivosti. Sklepamo lahko, da se znotraj členov N in R nahajata tudi dva verjetnostna parametra, ki sta lastna nevarnostnemu in škodnemu potencialu. Gre za: - verjetnost nastopa nevarnosti dolo čene magnitude P M na mestu ogroženca ter - verjetnost prisotnosti ogroženca I v na tem istem mestu. Torej dolo ča verjetnost kolizije K nevarnosti in ogroženca, možnost interakcije med obema, nevarnostnim in škodnim potencialom ter pogojuje nastanek konfliktnega obmo čja in s tem tudi tveganja: T (risk): Expected losses (fatalities, injuries, damaged property, and disrupted economic activities) due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. Based on mathematical calculations, risk is the product of hazard, vulnerability, and “value-at-risk”. N (hazard): An event or physical condition that is a potential cause of fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, environmental damage, business interruption, or other types of harm or loss. The magnitude of the phenomenon, the probability of its occurrence, and the extent and severity of its impact can vary, although in many cases may be anticipated or estimated. R (vulnerability): Characteristic of human behavior, social, and physical environments, describing the degree of susceptibility (or resistance) to the impact of e. g. natural hazards. Vulnerability is determined by combining hazard awareness, condition of human settlements and infrastructure, public policy and administration, and organizational strength in disaster management. Poverty is one of the main causes of vulnerability in many parts of the world. One can reach the conclusion that two probability parameters which are characteristic of the hazard and damage potential are included in N and R. Those are: - the occurrence probability of the hazard of certain magnitude P M at the place where the endangered element, and - the presence probability of the endangered element I v on the same spot. So, the probability of collision K determines the likelihood of interaction between hazard and damage potential, and is a condition for emergence of the conflict zone and consequently the occurence of a risk: ( ) v M I P N K ⋅ = (2) Produkt nevarnosti in ranljivosti iz ena čbe 1 je specifi čno tveganje ali ogroženost (Crosta et al., 2001): The product of hazard and of vulnerability from equation 1 is the specific risk (Crosta et al., 2001): R K OG ⋅ = (3) Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 21 Opazimo, da je izpostavljenost I v ogroženca obravnavana lo čeno od ranljivosti ogroženca, čeprav bi jo morda lahko šteli tudi k temu kompleksu dejavnikov (npr. konstrukcijski materiali, starost, vzdrževanost ...). Bistvena dejavnika, ki dolo čata nevarnost, sta poleg njene časovno-prostorske razsežnosti njena magnituda in verjetnost nastopa na mestu ogroženca, kar je še posebej treba poudariti, saj v časih prihaja do napa čnih interpretacij in tako se verjetnosti in magnitude ra čunajo le na obmo čjih nastanka nevarnosti. Vrednost ogrožencev V je stvar subjektivne presoje ali objektivnega ekonomskega vrednotenja. Produkt ranljivosti in vrednosti ogroženca imenujemo škodni potencial ŠP, torej je tveganje (Crosta et al., 2001; Romang, 2004): The exposure I v of an element of risk is considered separately from its vulnerability, although we could add it to the factors that design vulnerability (e. g. construction materials, age, maintenance ...). The essential factors that design the hazard are, besides its time-spatial dimension, its magnitude and probability of occurence on the place of the endangered element, which must be especially emphasized because sometimes interpretations are wrong and consequently the probabilities and magnitudes are calculated on hazard source areas only. The value of endangered elements V is a matter of subjective estimation or objective economic evaluation. The product of the vulnerability and of the value of endangered element is the damage potential ŠP, and thus the risk is (Crosta et al., 2001; Romang, 2004): V OG T ⋅ = (4) oziroma/or ŠP K T ⋅ = (5) Vrnimo se k ravnanju s konfliktnimi obmo čji, ki smo jih že omenili v uvodnem delu prispevka. Ob prevladujo čem mnenju, da je naravne procese mogo če “regulirati” in s tem pose či zgolj v parameter magnitude nevarnosti na konfliktem obmo čju, v časih celo v parameter verjetnosti nastopa nevarnosti na istem obmo čju, se je nemoteno pove čeval obseg dejanskih škod ob nastopu naravnih nesreč. Druga rešitev, v današnjem času veliko bolj aktualna in v skladu s konceptom trajnostnega in celovitega reševanja problemov na konfliktnih obmo čjih, se pojavi pozneje. Gre za zmanjševanje škodnega potenciala znotraj konfliktnih obmo čij. Iz ena čbe (1) je razvidno, da je za zmanjšanje tveganja treba zmanjšati bodisi nevarnost ali škodni potencial bodisi oboje hkrati. Optimizacija teh razmerij je odvisna od stopnje sprejemljivega tveganja T dop , ki pa je mo čno odvisna od vrednostnega sistema posameznika ali skupine posameznikov in ga dolo čamo znotraj procesa vrednotenja tveganja. Torej, če je T > T dop , je z zmanjšanjem Let's discuss the treatment of the conflict zones mentioned in the introduction of this paper. The dominant opinion that natural processes can be “managed” by intervening only in the parameter of hazard magnitude in a conflict zone, sometimes even in the parameter of probability of hazard occurence, caused that the extent of actual damages after natural disasters undisturbedly increased. The other solution, a lot more relevant and pursuant to the sustainable and holistic concept of problem solving in conflict zones, emerges later. It is about reducing the damage potential inside the conflict zones. From equation (1) it can be derived that for the reduction of risk it is necessary to reduce either hazard or damage potential, or both at the same time. The Ooptimization of these relationships depends upon the degree of acceptable risk T dop that is strongly dependent on the individual or collective value system and it can be determined during the risk assessment process. So, if T > T dop , the difference ∆T = T - T dop has to be nullified with reduction of N, R and/or V. We name the limit procedure ∆T → Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 22 členov N, R in/ali V treba izni čiti razliko ∆T = T - T dop . Limitni postopek ∆T → 0 imenujemo preventivno obvladovanje tveganja! Po Kienholzu (1998) se obvladovanje tveganja lahko izvaja preventivno (z zmanjšanjem verjetnosti ali škod na nivo sprejemljivega tveganja), reaktivno (z ukrepanjem ob nesre či) in neaktivno (s preprosto ohranitvijo in nadzorom statusa quo), cilj obvladovanja tveganja pa je najvišja možna efektivnost (mera za stopnjo doseženosti cilja, brez upoštevanja porabe sredstev) in eficienca (razmerje med doseženim delovanjem ukrepa in porabljenimi sredstvi). Reaktivno in neaktivno obvladovanje tveganja nista predmet razprave. Omenimo le, da reaktivni pristop k obvladovanju tveganja smotrneje izrabimo ob nastopih izjemnih dogodkov, ki imajo zanemarljivo verjetnost nastopa, torej ob zelo redkih nevarnostih; pasivno obvladovanje pa izvajamo na monitorinški na čin, ki ohranja in nadzira obstoje če stanje. Pri obeh pristopih je težko govoriti o dejavnem obvladovanju tveganja, ampak gre bolj za podro čje delovanja služb, ki so zadolžene za ukrepanje ob nesre či ter za sistem monitoringa in pravo časnega opozarjanja, ki je ravno tako tesno povezan s temi službami (slika 2). Preventivno obvladovanje tveganja je učinkovitejša in dolgoro čno tudi cenejša oblika varstva pred naravnimi nesre čami, kar kaže tudi ustaljena praksa v ostalih alpskih državah. 3. RAZMERE V IZBRANIH A L P S K I H D R Ž AVA H (povzeto po Stötter et al., 1997) V 50. in 60. letih prejšnjega stoletja je prišlo do spoznanja, da aktivni ukrepi varovanja pred naravnimi nevarnostmi trajno ne zadostujejo ve č, da si jih tudi ni več mogo če privoš čiti in da je nastopila potreba po mo čnejši zaš čiti, kot jo zagotavljajo gradbeni varovalni ukrepi. Zato so iskali orodje za na črtovanje preventivnega ravnanja z naravnimi nevarnostmi oziroma za bolj usmerjeno na črtovanje aktivnih varovalnih 0 preventive risk management! According to Kienholz (1998), risk management can be done in a preventive (by reducing the likelihood or damages on the level of acceptable risk), reactive (by taking measures during the disaster) and inactive (by simple preservation and monitoring of the status quo) manner, while the goal of risk management is the highest possible effectiveness (unit for the degree of goal achievement without considering the costs) and efficiency (relation between achieved measure activity and spent financial means). Reactive and inactive risk management approaches are not the subjects of this discussion. We use the reactive approach to risk management more properly in case of occurence of extreme events which have negligible probability of occurence, that means during very rare hazards. Inactive management is performed in a monitoring manner that preserves and monitors the existing conditions. It is hard to consider these approaches as active risk management, but more as the domain of agencies that are bound to act during the disaster and for monitoring and up- to-date warning system, which are closely related to these agencies as well (Figure 2). Preventive risk management is more efficient and in the long run also the cheaper form of natural disasters mitigation, as has been proven by the common practice in other alpine countries. 3. CONDITIONS IN SELECTED ALPINE COUNTRIES (adapted after Stötter et al., 1997) In 1950's and 1960's we realized that active measures of protection from natural hazards are no more sufficient nor affordable, and that there is a need for a stronger protection than provided by civil engineering protection measures. That is why a tool for planning of preventive treatment of natural hazards or for more directed planning of active protective measures was pursued. The new legislation placed natural hazards into the field of spatial Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 23 ukrepov. Nova zakonodaja je umestila naravne nevarnosti v prostorsko na črtovanje v obliki ploskovne dolo čitve stopnje ogroženosti v okviru na črtovanja obmo čij nevarnosti. planning in the form of areal designation of degree of endangerment in frame of hazard zones planning. Slika 2. Koncept upravljanja s tveganjem (prirejeno po CENAT, 2004). Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 24 Figure 2. The concept of risk management (adapted after CENAT, 2004). 3.1 ŠVICA Po katastrofalni zimi 1951/52 je bil leta 1954 za ob čino Gadmen v Berner Oberland izdan prvi na črt obmo čij nevarnosti snežnih plazov (nem. Lawinenzonenplan). Od teh prvih za četkov do obsežnega na črtovanja ogroženih obmo čij je bila potrebna vrsta zakonskih sprememb. Eden prvih, še zelo skr čenih zakonskih okvirjev je bila gozdarska 3.1 SWITZERLAND After a catastrophic winter of 1951/52, in 1954 a first plan of hazard zones due to avalanches (Ger. Lawinenzonenplan) was issued for the municipality Gadmen in Berner Oberland. A series of legal changes was necessary from these very first beginnings to extensive planning of danger zones. One of the first, still very limited legal frames was Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 25 zakonska uredba (nem. Vollziehungs- verordnung zum Forstpolizeigesetz) iz leta 1965, ki je dolo čala, da se na obmo čjih ogroženosti zaradi snežnih plazov ne postavlja novih objektov, kar naj bi bila kantonalna skrb. S tem namenom so bili izdelani načrti obmo čij nevarnosti snežnih plazov (nem. Lawinenzonenpläne). Z zakonom o prostorskem na črtovanju (nem orig. Raumplanungsgesetz) z dne 22. junija 1979 so vklju čili v na črtovanje tudi ostale naravne nevarnosti. S tem so bili uradi za na črtovanje zavezani k upoštevanju naravnih nevarnosti pri prostorskih dejavnostih. A šele z novo zakonodajo iz 90. let so bile ustvarjene okvirne razmere za moderno na črtovanje obmo čij nevarnosti. Zvezni zakon o vodni gradnji (nem. Bundesgesetz über den Wasserbau) z dne 21. junija 1991 in Zvezni zakon o gozdovih (nem. Bundesgesetz über den Wald) z dne 4. oktobra 1991, skupaj s pripadajo čimi akti, zavezujeta kantone k izdelavi podlag, kot sta kataster nevarnosti in karta nevarnosti, kakor tudi k ustanovitvi zveznih ustanov za izvajanje temeljnih del in za izdelavo tehni čnih smernic. Zaradi federalne strukture države so v posameznih kantonih nastajali razli čni pristopi. Poleg zelo razli čnih konceptov in pristopov v posameznih kantonih, kot so npr. Graubünden, Obwalden, Freiburg in Wallis, je bilo tudi na zveznem nivoju veliko iniciativ za podlage presoje nevarnih procesov in prikaza nevarnih obmo čij. Taki primeri so: • Projekt: Gefahrenkataster – Ereigniskataster (Heinimann, 1996; Krummenacher et al. 1996) • Symbolbaukasten zur Kartierung der Phänomene (BWW & BUWAL, 1995) • Richtlinien zur Berücksichtigung der Lawinengefahr bei raumwirksamen Tätigkeiten (BFF & EISLF, 1984) • Empfehlungen – Berücksichtigung der Hochwassergefahren bei raumwirksamen Tätigkeiten (BWW & BUWAL, 1997) • Empfehlungen – Berücksichtigung der Massenbewegungsgefahren bei raum- wirksamen Tätigkeiten (Lateltin et al., 1997; nova izdaja v pripravi) • Richtlinie für den Hochwasserschutz des forestry legal regulation (Ger. Vollziehungs- verordnung zum Forstpolizeigesetz) from 1965, which appointed to the care of cantons that in danger zones no new objects may be built due to avalanches. Accordingly avalanche hazard zone plans were made (Ger. Lawinenzonenpläne). With the Law on Spatial Planning (Ger. Raumplanungsgesetz) from June 22, 1979, other natural hazards were also included in planning. Offices for planning were bound to consider natural hazards in spatial activities. But only through the new legislation in 1990's the circumstances for modern hazard zone planning were set. The Federal Law on Hydraulic Engineering (Ger. Bundesgesetz über den Wasserbau) from June 21, 1991, and the Federal Law on Forests (Ger. Bundesgesetz über den Wald) from October 4, 1991, together with belonging acts, bind cantons to set up bases, such as the register of hazards and hazard maps, as well as the foundation of federal institutions for execution of fundamental works and technical guidelines. Individual approaches in individual cantons occurred because of the federal structure of a country. Beside very different concepts and approaches in individual cantons, e. g. Graubünden, Obwalden, Freiburg and Wallis, at the federal level many initiatives have been given for making the base for assessment of hazard processes and display of hazard zones. Examples are: • Projekt: Gefahrenkataster – Ereigniskataster (Heinimann, 1996; Krummenacher et al., 1996) • Symbolbaukasten zur Kartierung der Phänomene (BWW & BUWAL, 1995) • Richtlinien zur Berücksichtigung der Lawinengefahr bei raumwirksamen Tätigkeiten (BFF & EISLF, 1984) • Empfehlungen – Berücksichtigung der Hochwassergefahren bei raumwirksamen Tätigkeiten (BWW & BUWAL, 1997) • Empfehlungen – Berücksichtigung der Massenbewegungsgefahren bei raum- wirksamen Tätigkeiten (Lateltin et al., 1997; new edition in preparation) • Richtlinie für den Hochwasserschutz des Kantons Uri (Kanton Uri, 1992) Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 26 Kantons Uri (Kanton Uri, 1992) Po velikih poplavah leta 1987 je švicarsko najvišje zakonodajno telo leta 1989 Zveznemu zavodu za vode in Zveznemu zavodu za prostorsko na črtovanje naro čilo naj pripravita posebna priporo čila, kako upoštevati nevarnosti vodnih ujm pri prostorskem na črtovanju. Zakonodajna rešitev v Zveznem zakonu o prostorskem na črtovanju iz leta 1979 zavezuje kantone k dolo čitvi znatno ogroženih obmo čij zaradi naravnih nevarnosti. Zvezni zakon o vodni gradnji z dne 21. junija 1991 pa dolo ča, da kantoni zagotavljajo varstvo pred visokimi vodami predvsem z rednim vzdrževanjem in ukrepi prostorskega na črtovanja. Šele, če to ne zadoš ča, lahko uporabijo gradbene ali druge varstvene ukrepe. 3.2 FRANCIJA V 60. letih je razvoj zimskega turizma na višje leže čih obmo čjih vplival na potencial naravnih nevarnosti, ga mo čno spodbudil, tako da se je vlada morala soo čiti s problemom javne varnosti v gorskih okoljih. Usodna nesreča zaradi snežnega plazu v Val d'Isèru spomladi leta 1970 je naposled sprožila aktivnosti za prepre čevanje in zaš čito pred naravnimi nevarnostmi, ki so bile izpeljane z izdelavo načrtov nevarnih obmo čij za francoski alpski prostor. V prvem koraku je bila izdelana karta naravnih nevarnosti (fr. carte des risques naturels ali carte R 111-3 po členu R 111-3 Code de l'urbanisme) za presojo prihodnjih na črtov. Vzporedno so za čeli z izdelavo karte ZERMOS (fr. Zones Exposées à des Risques liés aux Mouvements du Sol et du sous-sol) za obravnavo pobo čnih gibanj in karte CLPA (fr. Carte de Localisation Probable des Avalanches) za na črtovanje glede na nevarnost snežnih plazov. Sredi 80. let je bil uveden nov koncept na črtovanja nevarnih obmo čij. PER-i (fr. Plan d'Exposition aux Risques Prévisibles) so bili bistveno bolj avtenti čni kot karte R 111-3. Nadaljnje zaostrovanje zakonskega položaja celo do kazensko-pravnega preganjanja zaradi neupoštevanja pravnih obveznosti je bilo zaklju čeno z izdajo PPR (fr. Plans de Prévention des Risques) leta 1995, ki se jih še danes uporablja v na črtovalski praksi. Leta 1967 so se v departmaju Isère v After large floods in 1987 the Swiss highest legislative body in 1989 ordered to Federal Institute for Water and Federal Institute for Spatial Planning to prepare special guidelines, how to regard water flood hazard in spatial planning. Legislative solution in the Federal Law on Spatial Planning from 1979 appoints that cantons determine the areas that are considerably endangered due to natural hazards. The Federal Law on Hydraulic Engineering from June 21, 1991, appoints cantons to ensure protection from floods especially by regular maintenance and measures of spatial planning. Only in case this proves insufficient, the use of construction or other protection measures is expected. 3.2 FRANCE The development of winter tourism in high- altitude areas in the 1960's affected the potential of natural natural hazards by strongly stimulating it, so that the government was confronted by the problem of public safety in the mountain regions. Eventually, the fatal disaster following the avalanche in Val d'Isère in spring 1970 set off activities for prevention and protection against natural hazards, which were executed through the making of hazard zone plans for the French alpine region. The first step was the making of the natural hazards map (Fr. carte des risques naturels or carte R 111-3 under Article R 111-3: Code de l'urbanisme) that was provided for assessing future plans. At the same time, the ZERMOS map (Fr. Zones Exposées à des Risques liés aux Mouvements du Sol et du sous-sol) for treatment of slope movements, and the CLPA map (Fr. Carte de Localisation Probable des Avalanches) as a base for planning with regard to avalanche hazard were made. In mid-1980's a new concept of hazard zones planning was introduced. The new PERs (Fr. Plan d'Exposition aux Risques Prévisibles) were essentially more reliable than the maps under Article R 111-3. Further gradation of the legal position even to penalties due to non- compliance to legal obligations was concluded with Risk Prevention Plans (PPR; Fr. Plans de Prévention des Risques) in 1995, which are even today used in the common planning practice. In 1967 in “departement” Isère, France, the Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 27 Franciji pojavile prve uradne karte nevarnosti na osnovi člena R 111-3 Zakona o urbanizmu, ki pravi (Besson, 1996): “ Če je gradnja na zemljiš čih, ki so izpostavljena neki naravni nevarnosti, kot je na primer poplava, erozija, udor, podor, snežni plaz, odobrena, se jo lahko podredi posebnim pogojem. Ta zemljiš ča so dolo čena s prefektoralnim odlokom po izvedeni javni razgrnitvi in jih je s sklepom sprejel ob činski svet.” Te karte so izdelovali na TTN 10 in so razmejila obmo čja, kjer je bila gradnja prepovedana, in obmo čja, kjer je bila pogojno dovoljena. Do sedaj izdelani dosje francoskega departmaja Isère vsebuje (Besson, 1996): • coniranje ob činskega ozemlja v skladu s predpisi in na temeljni topografski karti 1 : 10.000, na kateri nastopajo nezazidljiva obmo čja in pogojno zazidljiva obmo čja; karta se imenuje »ob činska karta naravnih nevarnosti«, toda urbanizirani sektorji ali sektorji bodo če urbanizacije so predstavljeni na temeljni katastrski karti; • predstavitveno poro čilo, ki opisuje ob čino v morfološkem, podnebnem, ekonomskem in geološkem planu ter utemelji coniranje; • model tipi čnega predpisa, imenovanega “zakonske dolo čbe za uporabo na podro čjih, ki so izpostavljena naravnim nevarnostim”. Grafi čna dokumentacija (poleg predstavitvenega poro čila in predpisa je tudi to dolo čeno z odredbo iz l. 1993) vsebuje štiri sestavne dele: 1. karta prostorske omejitve naravnih pojavov (na temeljni topografski karti v merilu 1 : 25.000 ali 1 : 10.000), 2. karta nevarnosti (na temeljni topografski karti v merilu 1 : 10.000 ali 1 : 5000), 3. karta ranljivosti (na temeljni topografski karti v merilu 1:25.000), 4. na črt v skladu s predpisi (rde ča, modra, bela cona) (na temeljni katastrski karti v merilu 1 : 5000) Na črti P.E.R. lo čijo med zelo (gradnja prepovedana), delno (gradnja pod pogoji) in neznatno ogroženimi obmo čji (Mikoš, 1997). Če povzamemo francoske izkušnje, opazimo tristopenjski razvoj kart nevarnosti (povzeto po Besson, 1996): first official natural hazard maps were issued on the basis of paragraph R. 111-3 of the Urbanistic Code that says (Besson, 1996): “If construction on land exposed to a natural hazard, for instance floods, erosion, subsidence, collapse, avalanche, is approved it could be subdued to special conditions. These lands are appointed with prefect's decree, after public presentation and after they are passed by the municipal council.” Those maps were made on the basis of topographic map 1 : 10,000 and they delineated the areas where construction was forbidden from the areas where construction was conditionally allowed. So far, the file of the French “departement” Isère contains (Besson, 1996): • The zonation of the municipal territory harmonized with regulations and on a basic topographic map 1 : 10,000 with non- housing areas and conditionally housing areas; it is termed as “municipal map of natural hazards” while urbanized sectors or sectors of future urbanization are presented on a basic cadastral map; • A demo report that describes a municipality in the morphological, climatic, economic and geologic plan and substantiates the zonation; • A model of typical regulation, appointed as “statutory provision for the use in the fields exposed to natural hazards”. The graphic documentation (besides the demo report and regulation it is laid down by the decree from 1993 as well) contains four parts: 1.map of spatial restraints of natural phenomena (on basic topographic map 1 : 25,000 or 1 : 10,000), 2. hazard map (on basic topographic map 1 : 10,000 or 1 : 5000), 3. vulnerability map (on basic topographic map 1 : 25,000), 4. plan harmonized with regulations (red, blue, white zones) (on basic cadastral map 1 : 5000). P.E.R. plans delineate between highly (construction forbidden), partially (construction under conditions) and insignificantly endangered areas (Mikoš, 1997). Summarizing the French experiences, a three-level development of hazard maps can be observed (after Besson, 1996): Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 28 1. Dolo čitev obsega naravnih tveganj na podlagi člena R. 111-3 Zakona o urbanizmu; cilj: javna objava tveganja in ne ureditev nevarnih obmo čij, zadeva bodo če konstrukcije in ne obstoje čih. 2. Izdelava načrta izpostavljenosti tveganjem P.E.R. na podlagi zakona z dne 13. julija 1982 in uredbe z dne 15. marca 1993; cilj: javno objaviti tveganje in zmanjšati stroške opustošenj, ki jih ta tveganja povzro čijo. 3. Izdelava načrta prepre čitve tveganj P.P.R. na podlagi zakona z dne 2. februarja 1995 in uredbe z dne 5. oktobra 1995; cilj: javno objaviti tveganje in sprejeti prevencijske ukrepe, zaščitne ukrepe in varovalne ukrepe na izpostavljenih obmo čjih in na posredno izpostavljenih obmo čjih. 3.3 AVSTRIJA Presoje iz 60. let so pokazale, da finan čna sredstva za aktivne zazidalne ukrepe dolgoro čno ne zadostujejo. Drobirski tokovi in snežni plazovi pozimi 1965/66 so kon čno pokazali na nujnost mo čnejšega spodbujanja poleg aktivnih tudi pasivnih varovalnih ukrepov. Od za četka 70. let so bila kot predhodnik sedanjih na črtov nevarnih obmo čij dokončana strokovna mnenja o površinah (nem. Flächengutachten), ki so bila cenejša od posameznih strokovnih del in tudi kvalitativno premišljena. Z Zakonom o gozdovih z dne 3. julija 1975 so bile ustvarjene zakonske podlage za na črtovanje nevarnih obmo čij, katerih izpeljava je bila razložena z Uredbo o na črtih nevarnih obmo čij (nem. Verordnung über Gefahrenzonenpläne) z dne 30. julija 1976. Mikoš (1997) navaja: “Pojavi se potreba po revidiranju nekaterih že izdelanih na črtov zaradi spremembe naravnih pogojev, ki so nastopile v času po njihovi izvedbi, predvsem v odmiranju gozdov. Zato se je v Avstriji pojavila zahteva po enotnem pristopu pri izdelavi takih na črtov obmo čij ogroženosti. Pri tem gre predvsem za vprašanje ustrezne metodike raziskovanja in za v obliki smernic podprti na čin pristopa k izdelavi na črta ogroženosti nekega obmo čja.” 1. Designation of extent of natural risks on the basis of Article R. 111-3 of the Law on Urban Development; objective: only publication of risk, but no regulation of hazard areas; it regards future constructions and not the existing ones. 2. Making a plan of exposure to P.E.R. risks based on the law from July 13, 1982, and regulation from March 15, 1993; objective: publication of risk and reduction of costs of damage caused by those risks. 3. Making a risk prevention P.P.R. plan based on the law from February 2, 1995, and regulation from October 5, 1995; objective: publication of risk and preventive measures, shielding measures and protection measures in exposed areas and indirectly exposed areas. 3.3 AUSTRIA In 1960's the reviews showed that the financial means for active construction measures do not suffice in the long run. Debris flows and snow avalanches in winter 1965/66 finally suggested the urgency for a stronger stimulation of passive protective measures on top of the active ones. From the beginning of 1970's expert opinions about surfaces (Ger. Flächengutachten) were completed as a precursor of present hazard zone plans, which were cheaper than the individual professional works and well thought out. With the Forestry Act from July 3, 1975, the legal basis was created for planning of hazard zones, derivation of which was explained in the Decree on Hazard Area Plans (Ger. Verordnung über Gefahrenzonenpläne) from July 30, 1976. Mikoš (1997): “The need for revision of some already made plans had emerged due to the changes of natural conditions that occurred in the time after their realization, primarily due to the dying forests. That is why the demand for a unified approach of making such hazard zone maps emerged in Austria. It is above all a matter of suitable research methodology and through guidelines supported approach to the making of hazard plans of a certain area.” Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 29 4. ZAKONSKA IZHODIŠ ČA PREVENTIVNEGA OBVLADOV ANJA TVEGANJA V REPUBLIKI SLOVENIJI Analiza in vrednotenje tveganja sta predpogoja za kakovostno preventivno obvladovanje tveganja. Zlasti analiza tveganja potrebuje prakti čne zakonske osnove. 4.1 STRATEGIJA PROSTORSKEGA RAZVOJA SLOVENIJE (2003) Eden izmed ciljev prostorskega razvoja Slovenije je prostorski razvoj, usklajen s prostorskimi omejitvami (SPRS, 2003): “Naravne procese, ki lahko ogrožajo poselitev in človekove dejavnosti, je treba obvezno upoštevati kot omejitev pri na črtovanju rabe in dejavnosti v prostoru. Prostorski razvoj na vseh obmo čjih, zlasti pa na ogroženih obmo čjih je treba na črtovati v skladu z omejitvami zaradi naravnih in drugih nesre č, kot so poplave, zemeljski plazovi, erozija, snežni plazovi, požari v naravnem okolju in potresi. Potencialna tveganja je treba zmanjšati s preventivnim na črtovanjem, in sicer z razmeš čanjem dejavnosti v prostor izven obmo čij potencialnih nesre č, z ustreznim upravljanjem primarnih dejavnosti v nevarnih in ogroženih obmo čjih ter z nadzorovanjem aktivnosti, ki lahko povzro čajo naravne in druge nesre če.” Torej sta bistveni prostorski omejitvi naslednji: 1. Usmerjanje prostorskega razvoja izven obmo čij, ki jih ogrožajo naravne ali druge nesreče. 2. Preusmerjanje obstoje čih dejavnosti izven obmo čij, ki so ogrožena zaradi naravnih ali drugih nesre č, oziroma izboljševanje zaš čite pred posledicami naravnih in drugih nesre č. 4.2 ZAKON O VARSTVU PRED NARAVNIMI IN DRUGIMI NESRE ČAMI (2002) Pri ocenah ogroženosti po “Zakonu o varstvu pred naravnimi in drugimi nesre čami“ (ZVNDN, 2002) gre za podporo pri reaktivnem in neaktivnem obvladovanju tveganja, sama izdelava ocen ogroženosti ter 4. LEGAL BASES FOR PREVENTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA Hazard analysis and hazard assessment are prerequisite for a quality preventive risk management. Especially risk analysis demands practical legislation basis. 4.1 SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF SLOVENIA (2003) One of the goals of the spatial development of Slovenia is spatial development harmonized with spatial restraints (SPRS, 2003): “Natural processes that can endanger settlement and human activities should be considered as a restraint in spatial use planning and activities. Spatial development in all areas, especially the endangered ones, has to be planned pursuant to restraints due to natural and other disasters like floods, landslides, erosion, avalanches, fires in the natural environment and earthquakes. Potential risks have to be reduced by preventive planning, namely by displacement of activities in space, outside the areas of potential disasters, with suitable management of primary activities in hazard and endangered areas, and with control of activities that could cause natural and other disasters.” So, the essential spatial restraints are: 1. Guidance of spatial development outside the areas that are endangered by natural or other disasters. 2. Diverting the existing activities outside the areas that are endangered by natural or other disasters or improving the protection against the consequences of natural and other disasters. 4.2 PROTECTION AGAINST NATURAL AND OTHER DISASTERS ACT (2002) Estimations of endangerment after the “Protection Against Natural and Other Disasters Act” (ZVNDN, 2002) are about support at reactive and inactive risk management, however, the estimation of endangerment and protection plans are in the competence of the state and municipalities and Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 30 na črtov zaščite in reševanja je v pristojnosti države in ob čin ter naloga gospodarskih družb, zavodov in drugih organizacij. Ocena ogroženosti po 44. členu tega zakona obsega: 1. Na črtovanje zaš čite, reševanja in pomo či ob naravnih in drugih nesre čah ter v vojnem stanju mora temeljiti na ocenah ogroženosti in drugih strokovnih podlagah. 2. Ocene ogroženosti za obmo čje države ali del obmo čja države za posamezne naravne in druge nesre če ter v vojnem stanju izdela Uprava Republike Slovenije za zaš čito in reševanje (URSZR) v sodelovanju z drugimi ministrstvi. 3. Ocene ogroženosti za obmo čje ob čine izdela pristojni ob činski organ. 4. Minister predpiše metodologijo za izdelavo ocen ogroženosti. 4.3 NACIONALNI PROGRAM VARSTVA PRED NARAVNIMI IN DRUGIMI NESRE ČAMI (2002) Bolj preventivno je usmerjen “Nacionalni program varstva pred naravnimi in drugimi nesrečami” (NPVNDN, 2002), ki upošteva vse nevarnosti naravnih (potres, poplava, zemeljski plaz, snežni plaz, visok sneg, mo čan veter, to ča, žled, pozeba, suša, množi čni pojav nalezljive človeške, živalske ali rastlinske bolezni in druge nesre če, ki jih povzro čijo naravne sile) ter drugih nesre č, ki ogrožajo ljudi, živali, premoženje, kulturno dediš čino in okolje. Program navaja: “Cilj preventive je prepre čiti, odstraniti ali zmanjšati varnostna tveganja. Preventiva je usmerjena predvsem v vire ogrožanja. Njen namen je predvsem prepre čiti nevarnost, že obstoje če nevarnosti pa odstraniti ali vsaj zmanjšati. Temeljne preventivne ukrepe naj bi izvajala pristojna ministrstva, lokalne skupnosti ter gospodarske družbe, zavodi in druge organizacije. Izvajanje preventivnih ukrepov mora biti zasnovano na ocenah ogroženosti in drugih strokovnih podlagah.” Ocene ogroženosti je treba upoštevati pri na črtovanju in izvajanju prostorskih planskih aktov ter pri projektiranju in gradnji objektov. Tako lahko z instrumenti urejanja prostora zagotovimo, da so nove prostorske dejavnosti a task of commercial companies, institutes and other organizations. Under Article 44 the assessment includes: 1. Planning of protection, rescue and help during natural and other disasters, and during war state must be based on the endangerment estimations and other professional bases. 2. The Administration of the Republic of Slovenia for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief in co-operation with other ministries prepares the endangerment evaluation for the state area or part of the state area for individual natural and other disasters and during war. 3. Endangerment estimations for a municipality area are made by a competent municipal body. 4.The methodology for making the endangerment evaluations is prescribed by the minister. 4.3 NATIONAL PROGRAMME FOR PROTECTION AGAINST NATURAL AND OTHER DISASTERS (2002) The “National Programme for Protection Against Natural and Other Disasters” (NPVNDN, 2002) is more preventively oriented and considers all natural hazards (earthquake, flood, landslide, avalanche, high snow cover, strong wind, hail, sleet, frost, drought, mass phenomenon of contagious human, animal or vegetable disease, and other disasters caused by natural forces) for natural and other disasters that endanger people, animals, property, cultural heritage and the environment. The programme cites: “The objective of prevention is to prevent, eliminate or reduce safety risks. Prevention is primarily directed to the sources of endangerment. Its objective is primarily to prevent hazard, and to eliminate or at least reduce the existing hazards. Fundamental prevention measures should be done by competent ministries, local communities and economic companies, institutes and other organizations. Execution of preventive measures must be conceived on endangerment evaluations and other professional bases.” Endangerment evaluations must be regarded during planning and execution of spatial plans and considered in design and construction. Hence, with instruments of spatial planning we can ensure that new spatial Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 31 usmerjene zunaj ogroženih obmo čij. Za zmanjšanje tveganja je med drugim treba dopolniti predpise s podro čja na črtovanja in urejanja prostora. Program predvideva tudi zvišanje stopnje premoženjske zavarovanosti fizi čnih in pravnih oseb, kar bi dejansko pomenilo znižanje vrednosti ogroženca, seveda ne v materialnem smislu, ampak znotraj posameznikove zaznave tveganja. To bi okrepilo vlogo zavarovalnic pri izvajanju preventivnih oblik varstva pred naravnimi in drugimi nesre čami, v povezavi s tem pa bi se postopno zmanjševala finan čna pomo č države pri odpravljanju posledic naravnih nesre č. 4.4 ZAKON O VODAH (2002) “Zakon o vodah” (ZV-1, 2002) dolo ča upravljanje in posege v vode, vodna in priobalna ter druga zemljiš ča (kamor spadajo zemljiš ča na varstvenih in ogroženih obmo čjih). Opredeljene so tudi omejitve in odvzem lastninske pravice na teh zemljiš čih, kakor tudi kazni. Na črt upravljanja z vodami vsebuje tudi prikaz varstvenih in ogroženih obmo čij, zakon uvaja tudi program ukrepov, ki se nanašajo na varstvo pred škodljivim delovanjem voda, za kar skrbita država in lokalne skupnosti. Zakon predvideva izdelavo vodnega katastra, ki ga sestavljajo popis voda in popis vodnih objektov ter naprav. V popis voda se vnašajo podatki o površinskih in podzemnih vodah, vodnih in priobalnih zemljiš čih, vodnem in morskem dobru, varstvenih in ogroženih obmo čjih po tem zakonu in zavarovanih obmo čjih po drugih zakonih. Znotraj poglavja urejanje voda je natan čneje opredeljeno varstvo pred škodljivim delovanjem voda (82. člen), ki obsega izvajanje ukrepov, s katerimi se zmanjšuje ali prepre čuje ogroženost pred škodljivim delovanjem voda in odpravlja posledice njihovega škodljivega delovanja. Varstvo pred škodljivim delovanjem voda se nanaša na varstvo pred poplavami, površinsko, globinsko in bo čno erozijo celinskih voda, erozijo morja, zemeljskimi in hribinskimi plazovi, delovanjem snežnih plazov ter ledom na celinskih vodah. activities are directed outside of endangered areas. Among other things, for the reduction of risk it is necessary to amend the regulations in the field of spatial planning. The programme also anticipates the raise of property insurance level of physical and legal entities which would actually bring about the lowering of value of the endangered element, not in a material sense, of course, but within individual’s risk perception. This would strengthen the role of insurance companies at execution of preventive protection against natural and other disasters, and thus the financial help from the state when eliminating the consequences of natural disasters would gradually reduce. 4.4 WATERS ACT (2002) “Waters Act” (ZV-1, 2002) provides for the management and encroachments on waters, water and coastal land and other land (including the land in protected and endangered areas). Restraints are defined as well as expropriation of land and penalties. The water management plan also contains a display of protected and endangered areas, and the act also introduces a programme of measures that refer to the protection from adverse effects of water, which is the domain of the state and local communities. The law foresees the making of a water register that is made of inventory of water and inventory of water facilities and devices. In the inventory of water the data about surface and ground water are entered as well as water and coastal land, water and sea goods, protected and endangered areas under this law and safeguarded areas according to other laws. In the water management chapter there is a more exact definition of protection against adverse effects of water (Article 82), which includes the execution of measures for reduction or prevention of endangerment against adverse effects of water and eliminates the consequences of these effects. The protection against adverse effects of water refers to the protection against floods, surface, deep and lateral erosion of continental waters, erosion of the sea, soil and rock landslides, avalanche activity, and ice cover in continental waters. Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 32 Ogrožena obmo čja dolo ča 83. člen: “Zaradi zagotavljanja varstva pred škodljivim delovanjem voda se dolo či obmo čje, ki je ogroženo zaradi poplav (poplavno obmo čje), erozije celinskih voda in morja (erozijsko obmo čje), zemeljskih ali hribinskih plazov (plazljivo obmo čje) in snežnih plazov (plazovito obmo čje).” Ta obmo čja skupaj tvorijo ogroženo obmo čje, ki ga dolo či vlada, ob upoštevanju naravnih možnosti, da pride do škodljivega delovanja voda, števila potencialno ogroženih prebivalcev in velikosti možne škode na objektih, zemljiš čih in premoženju. Zaradi varstva pred škodljivim delovanjem voda se zemljiš če na ogroženem obmo čju lahko razvrsti v razrede glede na stopnjo ogroženosti, upoštevaje metodologijo za dolo čanje ogroženih obmo čij in na čin razvrš čanja zemljiš č v razrede ogroženosti, ki jo predpiše minister. Pogoje in omejitve za izvajanje dejavnosti ali poseganje v prostor na ogroženem obmo čju predpiše vlada, podrobneje pa se dolo čijo v vodnem soglasju (85. člen). 4.5 RESOLUCIJA O NACIONALNEM PROGRAMU VARSTVA OKOLJA (2004) Vlada RS je 7. oktobra 2004 sprejela “Resolucijo o Nacionalnem programu varstva okolja“ (ReNPVO, 2004) in jo posredovala v obravnavo Državnemu zboru RS. Nacionalni program je osnovni strateški dokument na podro čju varstva okolja, katerega cilj je splošno izboljšanje okolja in kakovosti življenja ter varstvo naravnih virov. Cilji in ukrepi so opredeljeni v okviru štirih podro čij. Cilj programa zmanjševanja škodljivega delovanja voda je zmanjšanje ogroženosti pred poplavami in plazovi, predvideva pa identifikacijo ogroženih obmo čij z izdelavo kart nevarnosti in ogroženosti, pripravo programa ukrepov, za četek izvajanja gradbenih ukrepov v okviru programa Sklada za vode in vzpostavitev drugih instrumentov za zmanjšanje ogroženosti (raba prostora, gradbeni standardi, zavarovalništvo). The endangered areas are defined by Article 82: “To ensure the protection from adverse effects of water, areas shall be determined which are at risk of floods (flood area), erosion of continental and marine waters (erosion area), soil or rock landslides (slide area) and avalanches (avalanche area).” Endangered areas consists of all the areas mentioned and shall be determined by the government bearing in mind the natural capacities that might lead to adverse effects of water, the number of potentially endangered inhabitants, and the extent of possible damage to facilities, lands and property. The land on an endangered area can be classified into categories with regard to the level of endangerment, taking into consideration the methodology for endangered area determination and mode of classification of land into endangerment categories, which is ordained by the responsible minister. The conditions and restraints for execution of activities or encroachments on space in endangered areas are ordained by the government, more and in more detail determined in the water consent (Article 85). 4.5 NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION PROGRAMME RESOLUTION (2004) The Government of the RS has adopted the “Resolution on National Environmental Action Programme“ (ReNPVO, 2004) on October 7, 2004, which was forwarded to the National Assembly of the RS. The national programme is the basic strategic document in the field of environment protection with an objective of general improvement of the environment and quality of life, and protection of natural resources. Objectives and measures are defined in the frame of four fields. The objective of the programme of reduction of adverse effects of water is to reduce the endangerment against floods and landslides, and it foresees the identification of endangered areas with the making of hazard and danger maps, preparation of a programme of measures, start of construction measures in the frame of the Water Fund programme, and establishment of other instruments for endangerment reduction (land use, civil engineering standards, insurancy). Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 33 5. ZAKLJU ČKI Preventivno obvladovanje tveganja zaradi naravnih nevarnosti predstavlja odlo čilen preskok na podro čju človekovega odnosa do naravnih nevarnosti. Vedno znova potrjeno dejstvo, da narave ni mogo če zadovoljivo “regulirati”, je pripeljalo do novega koncepta ravnanja s konfliktnimi obmo čji, ki nam ponuja večjo varnost za manj stroškov, in čeprav se v časih rezultat navidezno ne kaže kot absolutna varnost, nam hkrati ponuja možnost odlo čanja o želeni stopnji in vrsti varnosti (objektivna ali subjektivna). V sodobnem svetu je tak pristop edini mogoč, saj mora biti posamezniku omogo čeno, da s prevzemanjem višje stopnje tveganja hkrati pridobi tudi ve č priložnosti. Kljub temu pa mora na neki stopnji nastopiti država kot korektor želja posameznika, ki v časih lahko presežejo neko splošno mejo dopustnega. Skozi proces vrednotenja tveganja, ki je umeš čen po analizi in pred obvladovanjem tveganja, dolo čamo to mejo dopustnega tveganja, ki pa seveda ni nespremenljiva, saj je še vedno odprta možnost svobodnega odlo čanja na razli čnih nivojih družbenega povezovanja po poti javne predstavitve predlogov. Na podlagi dejstva, da se države alpskega prostora spopadajo s podobno problematiko tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti, lahko sklepamo, da bi bilo smiselno v čim ve čji meri upoštevati tako slabe kot dobre izkušnje iz tujine, zlasti v zvezi z metodološkimi pristopi, katerih problematika se zares lahko pokaže šele pri izdelavi konkretnih kart ogroženosti oziroma kart tveganosti. Ali bi se bilo pri nas dobro izogniti vsem tem zapletom še pred sprejetjem podzakonskih aktov in kako? Na voljo imamo bogate izkušnje iz tujine, njihove napake, ki bi jih morali koristno izrabiti, da ne bi prihajalo do nepotrebnih zapletov tudi pri nas. Po zgledih (npr. Crosta et al., 2001; Borter et al., 1999) bi bilo treba izdelati pilotsko 4-nivojsko študijo analize tveganosti zaradi razli čnih pojavnih oblik masnega gibanja in transporta (opozorilna karta nevarnosti → karta nevarnosti → karta ogroženosti → karta tveganosti) še pred dokončnim sprejetjem podzakonskih aktov ZV-1. 5. CONCLUSIONS Preventive management of risk due to natural hazards is a decisive leap in the field of human relation to natural hazards. The ever confirmed fact that the nature cannot be “regulated” satisfactorily has lead to a new concept for treatment of conflict areas, which offers higher safety at lesser costs, and although the results occasionally fail to provide absolute safety, it offers the possibility of making the decisions at the desired level and type of safety (objective or subjective). In the contemporary world only such an approach is possible because the individual must be allowed to take a higher level of risk and to gain at the same time more opportunities. The state as a correction mechanism of individual’s wishes must step in at a certain level despite all, because the individual may surpass a certain generally permissible limit. Through the process of risk assessment, which takes place after risk analysis and before risk management, this permissible limit is determined, but not unchangeable, since there is always a possibility of free decision making at different levels of social connections through a public presentation of propositions. Based on the fact that alpine countries have similar risk problems in terms of natural hazards, one can conclude that it would be reasonable to consider bad as well as good experiences from abroad, especially in connection to methodological approaches, where problems could indeed emerge only through the making of endangerment maps or risk maps. Could it be possible to avoid all these problems before accepting the regulation acts and how? Rich experiences from abroad are available and we should learn and benefit from the mistakes made elsewhere so that we could avoid unnecessary complications. Following the examples (Crosta et al., 2001; Borter et al., 1999), a pilot 4-level study of risk analysis due to different types of mass movement and transport (warning hazard map → hazard map → danger map → risk map) should be made before the final acceptance of regulation acts of the Waters Act ZV-1. Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 34 VIRI – REFERENCES Besson, L. (1996): Les risques naturels en montagne. Artes-Publialp. 438 p. Borter, P. (1999): Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren. Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Bern. 244 p. CENAT (2004). Coping with Risks due to Natural Hazards in the 21st Century. Monte Verità Workshop 2004, 28. 11.–3. 12. 2004 (www.cenat.ch) Crosta, G., Frattini, P., Sterlacchini, S. 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Bayerischen Landesamtes für Wasser- wirtschaft bzw. des Bayerischen Staatsministerium für Landesentwicklung und Umweltfragen. 29 p. ZVNDN (2001). Zakon o varstvu pred naravnimi in drugimi nesre čami (Protection Against Natural and Other Disasters Act). Ur. list RS, št. 64/94, 33/00, 87/01 (www.dz-rs.si/si/aktualno/zakonodaja.html) ZV-1 (2002). Zakon o vodah (Waters Act). Ur. list RS, št. 67/02, 110/02 (www.dz-rs.si/si/aktualno/zakonodaja.html) Đurovi ć, B., Mikoš, M.: Preventivno obvladovanje tveganj zaradi naravnih nevarnosti – postopki v alpskih državah in Sloveniji – Preventive management of risks due to natural hazards – Procedures in the Alpine Countries and in Slovenia © Acta hydrotechnica 22/36 (2004), 17–35, Ljubljana 35 Naslov avtorjev – Authors’ Addresses Blažo Đurovi ć Inštitut za vode Republike Slovenije – Institute for Water of the Republic of Slovenia Hajdrihova ul. 28c, SI-1000 Ljubljana E-mail: blazo.djurovic@izvrs.si izr. prof. dr. Matjaž Mikoš Univerza v Ljubljani – University of Ljubljana Fakulteta za gradbeništvo in geodezijo – Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering Oddelek za gradbeništvo – Department of Civil Engineering Jamova c. 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana E-mail: mmikos@fgg.uni-lj.si