THE ECONOMIC TRANSITION OF SLOVENIA IN THE PROCESS OF GLOBALIZATION
GOSPODARSKA TRANZICIJA SLOVENIJE V PROCESU GLOBALIZACIJE
Lučka Lorber
Maribor, industrial zone Tezno (photography Lučka Lorber). Maribor, industrijska cona Tezno (fotografija Lučka Lorber).
Abstract	UDC: 911.3:338.4(497.4)
338.4(497.4):339.9 COBISS: 1.01
The Economic Transition of Slovenia in the Process of Globalization
KEY WORDS: globalization, postindustrial period, tertiarization, quaternization, deindustrialization, restructuring of industry, work force.
With the integration of knowledge and technology, a restructuring of the world economy occurred, particularly in industrial activity. This meant the beginning of the third industrial revolution and the process of globalization in the postindustrial period. The transition of the economic system of Slovenia toward a market economy dictates structural changes in industry.
Izvlječek	UDK: 911.3:338.4(497.4)
338.4(497.4):339.9 COBISS: 1.01
Gospodarska tranzicija Slovenije v procesu globalizacije
KLJUCNE BESEDE: globalizacija, postindustrijsko obdobje, terciarizacija, kvartarizacija, deindustrializacija, prestrukturiranje industrije, delovne sila.
Z integracijo znanja in tehnologije je pri{lo do prestrukturiranje svetovnega gospodarstva, zlasti industrijske dejavnosti. Nastopil je čas tretje industrijske revolucije in proces globalizacije v postindustrijskem obdobju. Prehajanje ekonomskega sistema Slovenije v tržno gospodarstvo, narekuje strukturne spremembe tudi v industriji.
The editorialship received this paper for publishing in Avgust 28th 1999. Prispevek je prispel v uredni{tvo 28.8.1999.
Address - Naslov: Lučka Lorber, Ph. D.
Oddelek za geografijo Pedago{ka fakulteta Univerza v Mariboru Koro{ka cesta 160 2000 Maribor Slovenija
Phone - telefon: +386 (0)62 229 644020
Fax - faks: +386 (0)62 213 541
E-mail - el. po{ta: lucka.lorber@uni-mb.si
Contents - Vsebina
1.	Introduction	137
2.	Trends in the development of the world economy	137 2.1.	The tertiarization of the world economy	140
3.	Transition in the post-socialist countries	142
4.	Economic restructuring of Slovenia compared
with other countries	147
5.	Slovenia's integration in the European Union	148
6.	The period of Slovenia's transition toward the market
economy (1991-1999)	150
6.1.	Structural changes in the industry of Maribor	150
7.	Conclusion	154
8.	Bibliography	155
9.	Endnotes	156
10.	Summary in Slovene- Povzetek	157
1.	Introduction
Human activity has brought the society to its present level of development and has determined relationships between people and between people and the environment. In the 19th and 20th centuries, the Industrial Revolution caused the greatest and most rapid development of civilization, fundamentally changing the relationships in society and in the environment. The first period of industrialization meant the exploitation of raw materials, energy, and man, as well as the powerful degradation of the environment. The rapid industrialization process triggered the deagrarianization of the rural environment, the urban development of cities, the mobility of the work force and goods, destroyed the old values, and changed the way of life. Technological progress improved living conditions and changed the demographic picture and population structure, the pattern of settlements, the infrastructure network, economic growth, and social standards.
The integration of science and technology and the introduction of the highest technology in production resulted in the restructuring of the world economy, and especially of industrial activity in developed environments. The deindustrialization process is a consequence of the technological advancement and economic development of the developed economies. The changes influenced the structure of industry, and industrial production increased in spite of the reduction of the number of employees in the secondary sector. At the same time, the process of the tertiarization and quaternarization of the population in the structure of the basic occupational groups occurred.
The industrialization process follows different development cycles, depending on the natural and social conditions in individual environments. On the threshold of the new millennium, this process is assuming a global character, although in some environments the industrialization process has still not developed. Society is passing into a postindustrial period characterized by an open worldwide economic market. Inclusion in the common economic market demands the restructuring of the entire economy in both developed and developing countries.
In the postindustrial period, the global processes shaping the international economic market are deepening even more the differences between developed and undeveloped regions of the world. With the aid of science, information, and capital, the most developed countries dominate. Economic and social differences in particular are deepening, a fact also reflected in the demographic indicators. Following the collapse of the Berlin Wall, changes occurred in the social systems of the post-socialist countries that introduced a market economy and experienced economic renewal.
In the 1990's, Slovenia decided in favour of a market economy that demanded integration in the world market and especially in the European integration processes. Slovenia is still a country in transition that is struggling with the problems of forming its own national economy and integrating itself in the world market, as well as with the problems of restructuring old industrial branches and putting depressed industrial zones back on their feet.
Between 1991 and 1999, there was a period of processes restructuring industry in Slovenia that changed sociogeographical structures and also changed or rather transformed the physiognomy of the landscape.
2.	Trends in the development of the world economy
With the advent of the worldwide economic market, industrial geographers are becoming increasingly occupied with industrialization as a living process affecting the physiognomy, function, and transformation of the environment. The complex research approach defines the industry as a phenomenon and a factor in geographical space.1
With the development of communication and infrastructure networks following World War II came the phenomenon of the globalization of the international market of goods, services, and capital.
Observing the movements of the world's exchange of goods shows us the development of financial market that affects the processes of globalization.2 Globalization of the world economy resulted in a deepen-
ing of differences between the developed and developing countries. Based on its monitoring of the data, the International Monetary Fund has classified the countries of the world into three basic groups3:
1.	Developed countries (28):
•	G7 (France, Germany, Italy, Great Britain, Canada, Japan, and the USA),
•	EU (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden),
•	Newly industrialized Asian economies (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan),
•	Other countries (Australia, Iceland, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, and Switzerland).
2.	Developing countries (127):
•	Africa (50),
•	Asia (26),
•	Near East and Europe (17),
•	Western Hemisphere (34).
3.	Countries in transition (28):
•	Central and Eastern Europe (18),
•	Russia,
•	Trans-Caucasian and Middle-Asian countries (9).
The deepening of the differences between the developed and developing countries leads the greater part of the world to backwardness and social instability reflected in major economic and demographic indicators. With the development of knowledge and through information networks, developed countries devote great attention to the restructuring of their work force, enable linkage between capital and the environment, and ensure the ecological protection of the environment. They are the driving forces of the economic development, its regional distribution, and long term trends influencing as a consequence the reshaping and development of the environment.
In 1996, the developed countries created 56.6% of the world's GDP and accounted for 78.6% of the world's export of goods and services (G7 countries: 45.4% GDP and 48% export). The developing countries created 39.2% GDP and 17.3% of the export. The contribution of the countries in transition in both segments was 4.2%.4 The newly industrialized Asian economies contributed 3.4% to the GDP and 10.2% to the world's export (Hong Kong 3.4%, South Korea 2.4%, Singapore 2.4%, and Taiwan 2.0%).
Figure 1: Classification of countries according to their development. Slika 1: Razdelitev držav po razvitosti.
TABLE 1: PROPORTION OF GDP AND EXPORTS FOR INDIVIDUAL GROUPS OF COUNTRIES ON THE WORLD SCALE (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF EUROPE, 1998).
PREGLEDNICA 1: DELEŽI BND IN IZVOZA POSAMEZNIH SKUPIN DRŽAV V SVETOVNEM MERILU.
				1996	1997	
	Number	% of world	% of world	% of world	% of world	% of world
	of countries	Population	GDP	exports	GDP	exports
Developed countries	28	15.7	56.6	78.6	55.3	77.1
Developing countries	127	77.3	39.2	17.3	39.9	18.6
Countries in transition	28	7.0	4.2	4.2	4.8	4.2
						
						
140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Developed countries Razvite države
Number of countries Število držav Proportion of GDP Delež BND roportion of exports Delež izvoza
Developing countries Države v razvoju
Countries in transition Države v tranziciji
Figure 2: Proportion of GDP and exports for individual groups of countries on the world scale in 1996 (International Monetary Fund, 1997). Slika 2: Deleži BND in izvoza posameznih skupin držav v svetovnem merilu leta 1996.
Exports Delež izvoza
Population Delež preb.
GDP
Delež BND
I Developed countries Razvite države
] Developing countries Države v razvoju
□ Transitioning countries Države v tranziciji
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Figure 3: Comparison of the proportions of GDP and exports relative to the populations of developed countries, developing countries, and countries in transition in 1997 (Economic Survey of Europe, 1998).
Slika 3: Primerjava deleža BND in izvoza glede na število prebivalcev razvitih držav, držav v razvoju in držav v tranziciji v letu 1997.
2.1. The tertiarization of the world economy
The globalization of the world economy resulted in the rapid growth of industrial production in the developing countries. The comparative advantages of the developing countries were cheap labour and the proximity of natural resources. The developed world, whose principle was free trade, was faced with competition from cheaper products.
The old industrial centers of the developed world suddenly experienced a crisis that was first reflected in the stagnation of labour-intensive branches of industry and then in their obvious decline. The developed world responded with accelerated investment in R&D.5 As a result, new products, materials, and technologies developed swiftly. For the first time, knowledge and production were united intensively. Approximately 90% of all patents are registered every year in the industrially most developed countries (with 15% of the world's population), and only 10% in the rest of the world (with 85% of world population). The introduction of scientific achievements into production was reflected in the rapid growth of added value per unit of production.
Due to the achievements of science, the new industrial production increasingly required new information and financial services, and the existing stereotype of industry changed. The industrial giants, once the pride and driving force of development, were confronted with major difficulties. In the most developed countries, this process began at the end of the 1950's and became a problem in the 1960's. Labour-intensive branches of industry could not compete with the rapidly growing »footloose« industry in creating added value. The classical location factors of industry distribution began to lose their importance.
In the developed countries, the structure of economic production changed. The processes of deindus-trialization and tertiarization meant the movement of employees from secondary into tertiary and quaternary activities, a fundamental characteristic of the postindustrial period.
The fall in the proportion of industrial workers can be compared with the dramatic fall of the number of employees in the primary economic sector after the Industrial Revolution. The process of industrial-
Figure 4: The proportion of industrial workers compared with the number of all employees in the industrial countries (International Monetary Fund, 1997).
Slika 4: Delež zaposlenih v industriji kot delež vseh zaposlenih v industrijskih državah.
80 %
Service sector Usluge
70
60
50
40
30
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1994
Figure 5: The proportion of service sector employees in the number of all employees in the industrial countries (International Monetary Fund, 1997).
Slika 5: Delež zaposlenih v storitvenih dejavnostih kot delež vseh zaposlenih v industrijskih državah.
ization is not everywhere the same but depends on the level of socioeconomic development of the individual society. The proportion of the industrial population is still growing in developing countries where the economy is in the industrialization phase.
In the developed countries, the growth of the GDP is high in industry and the service activities. The proportion of industrial workers is currently falling, while the proportion of employees in the tertiary and the quaternary sectors is increasing rapidly. Actual deindustrialization appeared when industry began laying off the work force due to rising productivity. High economic growth and a low level of unemployment are typical of the developed societies since the excess work force finds employment in the rapidly growing tertiary and quaternary sectors. The number of industrial workers fell from 28% in 1970 to about 18% in 1994. The deindustrialization process began in the mid 1960's in the USA. In the 1970's, it followed in the countries of the European Union, where the proportion of industrial workers fell from 30% to 20% by 1994. In the years to come, the proportion of industrial workers is expected to fall to 14%.
In the USA, development is different from that typical of the developed Western European economies. The absolute number of the industrial workers has not diminished, while in the EU countries it has fallen distinctly (about 25%). The developed Asian6 countries have followed the laws of economic development, first realizing the industrialization process and then deindustrialization only after 1989.7
The deindustrialization process is not a negative phenomenon of the collapse of the industrial sector or the economy in general as it is often described. On the contrary, deindustrialization is a natural consequence of economic development in advanced economies and is linked with a rising standard of living. Of course, this does not mean that deindustrialization brings no problems. The service sector cannot employ the surplus work force in such a short time because the general economic growth is not large enough and also due to the institutional rigidity of the labour market, legislative obstacles, or low investment in service activities.
In the last decade, economic development in the developed countries has been cyclical and uneven. In particular time periods, individual countries had different levels of economic growth.
After 1989, a process of negative deindustrialization was triggered in the countries in transition, resulting in a large proportion of unemployed labour that lost jobs in industry and has no possibility of finding employment in the tertiary sector.8
Unfortunately, the majority of developing countries do not enjoy the advantages of globalization. They see their future in a gradual improvement of the standard of living and in slow changes. Thus, the differences between the developed and developing countries are deepening not only in the relative but also in the absolute sense. The developing countries need radical political, social, and economic changes.
3. Transition in the post-socialist countries
The shift in the economic systems of the countries in transition toward the market economy means global changes and a new quality in the overall social relations.
The transition process has affected most intensely the post-socialist countries, the new independent countries, and the unstable stagnant economies of former (Asian) socialist countries. Under the influence of the »Velvet Revolution« in 1989-1990, the totalitarian socialist regimes in Europe collapsed. The Communist regimes in the small socialist countries of Eastern Europe either relinquished power or had to share it with the opposition, and the political changes brought the reformation of the economic system. However, changes not only occurred in the small national economies but the process also involved the whole Eastern European bloc led by the Soviet Union with its central planning and economic management.
With the collapse of the socialist social order and the disintegration of the Eastern bloc, the newly created and restored countries faced challenges that were unpredictable in many aspects.
After the change of regimes, the societies of the former socialist countries decided in favour of a pluralistic democratic social order and market economy. However, the transfer of the development model of the Western European democracies is encountering great obstacles.
Economic renewal, becoming accustomed to the rules of the market economy, the integration of the ex-socialist countries into the European division of labour, and the decentralization of power is greatly slowing the process of economic restructuring in the countries in transition.
The interest of world capital and foreign investors in investing has increased in those countries in transition that offer greater advantages than investments in Africa and some Asian and Latin American countries. The majority of the former socialist countries have populations with appropriate levels of education and therefore a work force that can be retrained for the demands of the modern economy. These countries have a relatively good infrastructure and can be included in transportation networks and linked with the transportation logistic nodes.
The newly established countries in transition have the beginners' problems of recognizing themselves as independent countries. They must develop their own competitive advantages.9 M. Porter's theory on the evolution of global competitiveness points out that in the case of the least developed economies it is based primarily on structure of costs. This means that in the case of technologically undemanding product and service lines sold in low price classes, the factors determining competitiveness are the substantially lower wages, social contributions, government expenses, and neglect of the environment. Inversely, the competitiveness of technologically demanding programs with high added value is based primarily on the high level of technological and innovative capacity of companies, the economy, and the society.
Investments of world capital and the interest of foreign investors are different in individual countries.
Direct investment of foreign private capital in the countries in transition is increasing in the countries that have successfully created attractive conditions for foreign investors. The influx of foreign capital should also make it possible for the countries in transition to invest in the revitalization of industry and the modernization of technological production.
Foreign investors are prepared to invest capital first in countries that have adopted appropriate legislation to provide protection for private capital, regulate the tax policy, and ensure optimal conditions for the development of the market economy.
TABLE 2: DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN COUNTRIES IN TRANSITION (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, 1997; ECONOMIC SURVEY OF EUROPE, 1999).
PREGLEDNICA 2: NEPOSREDNA TUJA VLAGANJA V DR@AVE V TRANZICIJI.
	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Croatia			16	95	102	88	529	346	854
Czech Republic	132	513	1004	654	869	2562	1428	1300	1617
Hungary	311	1459	1471	2339	1146	4453	1983	2085	1917
Poland	10	117	284	580	542	1134	2768	3077	6326
Slovakia	18	82	100	134	170	157	206	161	401
Slovenia	4	65	111	113	128	176	185	321	165
Hungary was the first country in transition to adopt the appropriate legislation, and in the beginning period its proportion of the direct investments was therefore the largest. It was followed by the Czech Republic, whose advantage was that it had quite radically broken with its previous regime and had a strongly developed industry with a skilled work force.
Considering their size, the proportion of investments in the Russian Federation and in Poland is relatively small. The Russian Federation is problematic because its political instability and difficult social situation represent a factor of high risk for foreign investment. The highest growth of foreign investments in the recent period has been recorded in Poland, a consequence of its orderly legislation and political stability. The proportion of direct foreign investment is lower in other countries in transition, including Slovenia.
Figure 6: Direct foreign investments in countries in transition (International Monetary Fund, 1997; Economic Survey of Europe, 1999). Slika 6: Neposredna tuja vlaganja v države vtranziciji.
For the first time since the war, the adoption of legislation on foreign investments in the Republic of Slovenia has brought legal regulation that favours a trend of systematic and long-term promotion of the influx of foreign investment into Slovenia.
The transition process in post-socialist countries that Slovenia is experiencing has three key features: democratization, privatization, and marketization. The process of political democratization means the transition from a one-party to a multiparty democratic system. The newer literature, which links economic and political issues, studies the influence of the political system on economic issues, especially the influence of the state on the market economy.10
It must be considered that the development of an economy depends primarily on economic laws that are not always in harmony with government policy. It is particularly more difficult for coalition governments (such as in Slovenia) to make important decisions and to provide legislative support for transition programs.
In the majority of the countries in transition, the question of comprehensive privatization is also open. Questions of ideology and political interests hinder the process. Some countries are very liberal in executing the process of privatization (Hungary, Czech Republic), while others are very cautious or ineffective (Bulgaria, Russia, Serbia). The newly independent and autonomous countries of Slovenia, Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, and Macedonia face other unsolved problems as well. A process of reforming their national economies is proceeding that demands the building of a defined and stable legal order. The newly created countries are aware of the importance of their openness and internationalization. Until 1990, their economies were of an import substitutive nature linked with the Yugoslav market and the Eastern European market. Common to all these countries is the fact that they lost their market overnight, so to speak, without the possibility of gradual transition and adaptation.
Efforts to achieve an export-oriented economy and make it a part of the world market are evident everywhere and are included in national development programs. Entering the world market also brings a demand for the international comparability of the efficiency of business companies.
Among the more successful countries in transition are the CEFTA countries, the Baltic countries, and Croatia. Their success is based on carrying out fundamental social and economic reforms. The goal of these countries is to become members of the European Union and NATO as equal partners.
Figure 7: Real GDP in CEFTA countries and Croatia in 1980, 1984-1998 (index, 1989 = 100; economic survey of Europe, 1998, 1999). Slika 7: Realni BNP držav CEFTE in Hrvaške 1980, 1984-1998 (indexi, 1989 = 100).
TABLE 3: REAL GDP IN CEFTA COUNTRIES AND CROATIA IN 1980, 1984-1998 (INDEX, 1989 = 100; ECONOMIC SURVEY OF EUROPE, 1998,1999).
PREGLEDNICA 3: REALNI BNP DRŽAV CEFTE IN HRVAŠKE 1980,1984-1998 (INDEXI, 1989 = 100).
	1980	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Croatia	99.0	99.7	99.8	102.6	102.5	101.6	100.0	92.9	73.3	74.4	59.6	63.0	67.3	71.4	76.0	79.1
Czech Republic			91.3	93.2	93.7	95.7	100.0	98.8	87.4	84.5	85.0	87.3	92.9	96.5	97.5	94.8
Hungary	86.3	94.4	94.1	95.5	99.4	99.3	100.0	96.5	85.0	82.4	81.9	84.3	85.5	86.6	90.4	95.4
Poland	91.1	87.1	90.3	94.1	95.9	99.8	100.0	88.4	82.2	84.3	87.6	92.1	98.6	104.6	111.8	116.6
Slovakia			91.0	94.8	97.1	99.0	100.0	97.5	83.3	77.9	75.1	78.7	84.2	89.7	95.6 100.0	
Slovenia	98.9	99.9	100.9	104.1	103.5	100.5	100.0	91.9	83.7	79.1	81.4	85.7	89.3	92.0	95.5	99.5
TABLE 4: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OF CEFTA COUNTRIES AND CROATIA IN 1980, 1984-1998. (INDEX, 1989 = 100;
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, 1997; ECONOMIC SURVEY OF EUROPE, 1997, 1998, 1999).
PREGLEDNICA 4: INDUSTRIJSKA PROIZVODNJA DRŽAV CEFTE IN HRVAŠKE 1980, 1984-1998. (INDEXI, 1989 = 100).
	1980	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997 1998
Croatia	88.7	93.1	95.1	99.4	102.0	100.6	100.0	88.7	63.4	54.2	50.9	49.6	49.8	51.3	54.8 56.8
Czech Republic	81.5	89.0	92.0	94.5	96.5	98.5	100.0	96.5	73.0	67.2	63.6	65.0	70.6	72.0	75.3 76.5
Hungary	92.9	101.4	102.1	104.0	106.4	105.3	100.0	90.7	74.1	66.9	69.6	76.2	79.7	82.4	91.5 103.0
Poland	86.3	84.4	88.5	92.3	95.5	100.5	100.0	75.8	66.8	69.4	73.8	82.8	90.8	98.3	109.0 114.1
Slovakia	76.7	87.4	91.6	95.2	98.8	100.8	100.0	96.0	77.4	70.3	67.6	70.9	76.8	78.7	80.8 84.4
Slovenia	90.3	99.7	101.0	102.7	101.6	98.9	100.0	98.5	78.4	68.1	66.1	70.4	71.8	72.5	73.2 75.9
A comparison between the GDP and industrial production shows that the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland recorded the smallest fluctuations in industrial production. The Czech Republic stopped the decline in production through greater domestic consumption, and Poland through rapidly growing export.
The strong decline in production in Croatia can be attributed to the war, in Hungary to smaller domestic consumption, and in Slovenia to the loss of the southern markets. After 1994, Slovenia managed to stop the further decline of industrial production by increasing its export to the markets of European Union countries and by increasing its domestic consumption.
- Croatia
Hrvaška
- Czech Republic
Češka
- Hungary
Madžarska
- Poland
Poljska
- Slovakia
Slovaška
- Slovenia
Slovenija
cocococococococn^cncncncncncncn cncncncncncncncn^cncncncncncncn
Year / Leto
Figure 8: Industrial production of CEFTA countries and Croatia in 1980, 1984-1998. (index, 1989 = 100; International Monetary Fund, 1997; Economic Survey of Europe, 1997, 1998, 1999).
Slika 8: Industrijska proizvodnja držav CEFTE in Hrvaške 1980, 1984-1998. (indexi, 1989 = 100).
From a comparison of data on the movement of the GDP and the growth of industrial production, we can conclude that the tertiarization of economy is highest in Slovenia and the Czech Republic and lowest in Poland, where the growths of the GDP and industrial production are almost proportional.
TABLE 5: TOTAL EMPLOYEES IN CEFTA COUNTRIES AND CROATIA IN 1980, 1984-1998 (INDEX, 1989 = 100; ECONOMIC SURVEY OF EUROPE, 1998, 1999).
PREGLEDNICA 5: VSI ZAPOSLENI V DRŽAVAH CEFTE IN HRVAŠKE, 1980, 1984-1998.
	1980	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Croatia	87.4	93.8	95.8	98.6	100.6	100.4	100.0	97.1	89.2	79.3	76.6	76.8	73.9	74.5	71.9	69.9
Czech Republic	95.3	95.7	97.5	98.5	98.9	99.4	100.0	99.1	93.6	91.2	89.7	90.4	92.8	93.4	92.4	91.2
Hungary	104.2	102.2	102.0	102.1	101.4	100.6	100.0	96.9	87.7	79.5	75.6	73.9	72.6	72.6	72.7	75.1
Poland	102.0	100.0	100.8	101.1	100.8	100.1	100.0	95.8	90.1	86.3	84.3	95.1	86.7	88.3	89.7	91.2
Slovakia	91.3	95.5	96.8	98.4	99.4	100.2	100.0	98.2	85.9	86.8	84.6	83.7	85.7	87.7	87.3	87.5
Slovenia	84.0	87.6	88.9	90.4	101.9	101.3	100.0	96.1	88.7	83.8	81.3	79.3	79.1	78.7	78.6	78.9
After 1989, the social changes in all the countries in transition caused a reduction in industrial production and massive layoffs, mainly among the industrial work force. The reduction in the number of industrial employees was also greatly influenced by the greater productivity in industrial production.
In the last year, rising employment has been recorded in Hungary and Poland. In Poland in particular, the opening of new workplaces was the result of the intensive influx of foreign capital in 1998.
TABLE 6: INFLATION LEVELS IN CEFTA COUNTRIES AND CROATIA FROM 1994 TO 1998 (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF EUROPE, 1998, 1999).
PREGLEDNICA 6: GIBANJE INFLACIJE V DRŽAVAH CEFTE IN HRVAŠKE OD 1994 DO 1998.
	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Croatia	-3.0	3.7	3.5	4.0	5.6
Czech Republic	10.3	7.9	8.7	9.9	6.7
Hungary	21.3	28.5	20.0	18.4	10.4
Poland	29.4	22.0	18.7	13.2	8.5
Slovakia	11.8	7.4	5.5	6.5	5.5
Slovenia	18.3	9.0	9.0	8.8	6.6
105,0
100,0 95,0 90,0
85,0 80,0 75,0
70,0
Year / Leto
Figure 9: Total employees in CEFTA countries and Croatia in 1980, 1984-1998 (index, 1989 = 100; economic survey of Europe, 1998, 1999). Slika 9: Vsi zaposleni vdržavah CEFTE in Hrvaške, 1980, 1984-1998.
Croatia Hrva{ka
Czech Republic Ce{ka
Hungary Madžarska
Poland Poljska
Slovakia Slova{ka
Slovenia Slovenija
Figure 10: Inflation levels in CEFTA countries and Croatia from 1994 to 1998 (Economic Survey of Europe, 1998, 1999). Slika 10: Gibanje inflacije vdržavah CEFTE in Hrvaške od 1994 do 1998.
In the 1980's, Slovenia was characterized by high inflation and a stagnating economy, which translated in the 1990's into an obvious decline in economic growth.
The downward trend in economic growth stopped after 1992, and a revival in industrial production began after 1993. The positive economic trends, assisted by the consistent monetary policies of the Bank of Slovenia, influenced the lowering of inflation.
4. Economic restructuring of Slovenia compared with other countries
The differences between the countries in transition and the developed countries are great and will increase in the future. On the threshold of the new postindustrial period, the restructuring process, especially integration in new world currents, is unfolding in the former socialist countries with greater difficulty and more slowly than in the formerly needy countries of Asia and Latin America. This proves that the processes of privatization and transition to a society based on the market economy are taking place too slowly in the countries in transition and that the socialist mentality is changing with much greater difficulty and much more slowly than anticipated.
Dynamic development and economically successful drawing near to the average level of development of the developed countries are conditions for entering the competitive struggle in the world market. The penetration of Slovene exports is a prerequisite for Slovenia's integration in the economic currents.
The small developed countries are strongly aware of the fact that their territorial size is not the decisive factor in their development. Of the ten most developed countries in the world, measured by GDP per inhabitant, only Japan and the USA rank among the seven greatest economic powers; all the others are smaller yet all are major exporters (Switzerland, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, Iceland, and Liechtenstein). Similar examples can also be found among the Pacific countries, which are certainly not highly developed according to the dynamics of growth but belong at the world top according to the penetration of their exports.
	5000
	4500
	4000
	3500
	3000
<c	
r-^	2500
w	
S	
ZD	2000
	1500
	1000
	500
	0
1993
1994
1995	1996
Year / Leto
1997
1998
Croatia Hrvaška
Czech Republic Češka
Hungary Madžarska
Poland Poljska
Slovakia Slovaška
Slovenia Slovenija
Figure 11: Export per inhabitant in dollars (Economic Survey of Europe, 1998, 1999). Slika 11: Izvoz na prebivalca v dolarjih.
TABLE 7: EXPORT PER INHABITANT IN DOLLARS (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF EUROPE, 1998, 1999). PREGLEDNICA 7: IZVOZ NA PREBIVALCA V DOLARJIH.
	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Croatia	870	741	851	926	872	833	907
Slovenia	3424	3118	3500	4277	4288	4291	4638
Hungary	1068	892	1070	1281	1418	1906	2296
Slovakia	651	1015	1252	1597	1641	1642	1826
Czech Republic	850	1041	1570	2080	2102	2183	2526
Poland	277	230	499	594	632	666	680
To be among the top ten countries in the world as measured by the value of export per inhabitant must become a strategic development goal and a long-term orientation for Slovenia. Today's value of export per inhabitant is 4638 dollars, considerably more than in other former socialist countries.
5. Slovenia's integration in the European Union
Slovenia sees its development possibilities and strategic orientations in the future integration of the Slovene economic, political, and monetary systems in the European Union (EU). It is necessary to consider the effects of external and internal factors on the European integration process determined particularly by the results of domestic economic activity and political decision-making.
The external factors are defined by the interests of EU members and are also determined by political and economic processes across Europe and the world. The European processes important for Slovenia are primarily the success and dynamics of implementing the association agreements that the EU has made with former European socialist countries, changes in the functioning of the European Economic Area (EEA) with the shrinking number of members (EFTA), and the development of the effectiveness and importance of the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) for continuing the integrating expansion of the EU.11
Among the external factors that will determine the future success of integration efforts, it is also worth mentioning the »external« assessment of the economic and also the more broadly defined suitability (con-
vergency) of an individual country for integration. Measuring suitability and measures for encouraging the development of economic suitability for integration are the current theoretical and practical challenges (Barro 1991; Cannullo 1993). The importance of integration suitability is also defined by the more or less clear EU criteria regarding the acceptance of new members.12
The issue of industrial policy is still one of the open questions of the European integration processes. In 1991, the European Parliament passed a resolution on industrial policy expressing support for the stimulation of advanced technology and emphasizing the need to carry out a concrete strategy. In 1994, the Commission adopted a new report on the industrial policy entitled The Policy of Industrial Competitive Capability for the EU. The notion of »industrial policy« was deliberately omitted. The concept of competitive capability can be used in individual companies, but it becomes problematic if we apply it to the whole country or even to the EU. The new report refers to the definition by the OECD. According to this, the competitive capability of companies, industrial branches, regions, countries, or supranational regions must, permanently secure a relatively high level of income and employment with production factors within the conditions of international competition.
The development of a modern open economy in Slovenia will require consideration of the process of business and political decentralization planned in the EU. The EU will secure the effectiveness of this process, as to its economic and implementation aspects, with budgetary and other support for technological development leading to the evolution of the information society.
The development of the information society in the EU, which means creating the conditions for »multimedia communication,« involves even more radical changes than those brought by the first Industrial Revolution. »At the center of the model of development for the 21st century, this question (the development of the information society-added by AK) is decisive for the survival or regression of Europe.«13
In the process of adapting, Slovenia will also have to consider adaptations in the field of its transportation infrastructure, and its integration in the framework of the Euza programs in the fields of transportation and energy.
In the field of employment, the development of a system for the »lifelong education and training« of the work force is envisaged, along with support for the greater adaptability of the work force relative to commercial production requirements, and the realization oflower relative costs for the least skilled types of work.
The new EU development model also envisages developing a structural connection between the issues of environmental protection and of solving the problem of unemployment. The goal of this orientation is to achieve greater economic growth and increase the level of employment while reducing the use of natural resources in production and consumption. In realizing the new development model, the EU will search for solutions in the development of new »clean« production and activities. The key to the realization of this orientation lies in the development of new knowledge and technologies necessary for the development of »clean production.«
The importance of this orientation for Slovenia appears on many levels, from the possibility of choosing its own comparative advantages on this basis to the professional and other efforts toward inclusion in emerging research and development projects.14
A pronounced environmental protection orientation is typical of EU countries, and the Scandinavian countries, Germany, and The Netherlands even dictate world trends. Because of the need for integration, it is inevitable that the Slovene economy also restructures relative to the environmental protection demands of this market. Because at the same time this is also a market for financial capital that is increasingly favourably disposed to environmental protection projects, the possibilities for restructuring the Slovene economy in harmony with environmental protection requirements are considerably greater. The legal system and economic policy of Slovenia will have to adapt to the demands of political, economic, and civilized development.
6. The period of Slovenia's transition toward the market economy (1991-1999)
From the structure of developments in the economic sectors, it is evident that Slovenia is moving into the postindustrial period. Since independence and the transition to a market economy, the number of those employed in industry has fallen rapidly, while at the same time the tertiary sector has experienced a boom.
In Slovenia, a strategy dominates that emphasizes the urgent development of domestic enterprise and companies that will be capable of competing in global markets. Slovenia's industrial policy is based on market-oriented management and the priority of export, technological and innovative promise, modest energy demands, ecological consideration, and European technical and technological standards.
The Slovene economy as a whole needs an open system and an open economic development and technology policy that will ensure inclusion in international trade. Slovenia is still seeking the »most favourable« strategic connections linking branches of industry that will enable its appearance in new markets and increase production capacity.
The most successful companies are increasingly internationalizing their business, but the questions of the strategy for inviting foreign direct investment, the arrival of foreign multinational companies, and the fear of the foreign political and economic dominance are still open.
The European Union has found that the trend of merging companies to ensure greater worldwide competitiveness is very strong on all levels, especially on the European and international level.
The analysts have established that Slovenia is lagging behind its comparable European competition in the field of technology and technological expertise, in machinery, particularly in computer-aided system equipment to run technological processes, and in new investment.
6.1. Structural changes in the industry of Maribor
After Slovenia had achieved independence, the unified Yugoslav market had collapsed, the Eastern market (COMECON) was lost, and the shift toward a market economy had begun, industrial areas and regions that had developed on the basis of industry experienced an economic crisis. The economic policy of the socialist system had not allowed the timely restructuring of the classic industry in accordance with the demands of the market economy forming in the European space. The crisis in the industry of Maribor is an example.
Once one of the strongest industrial centers in Slovenia and in the former Yugoslavia, Maribor has for a considerable period now been in a crisis that demands an overall social and economic restructuring. At the end of the 1980's, the Maribor economy experienced a sharp fall in industrial production due to its lack of readiness for the coming social and economic changes. The structure of Maribor's industry was based on a structure that was capital-intensive with modest revenues. It was concentrated in giant companies that had reached their peak of efficiency in the 1960's. That period was followed by a constant decline of Slovenia's GDP.
The industry had been creating the majority of its revenue through large companies producing heavy vehicles and equipment for major construction projects and through the textile industry, both oriented primarily toward satisfying the needs of the Yugoslav market. Because it had no small or medium-size companies that could be more flexible and adapt more easily to changes in the market, Maribor suffered the same fate as the old industrial cities. Its classic industry did not produce goods for mass consumption or any products with a high added value, so it could not appear with its offer on competitive markets and thus compensate for the loss of the Yugoslav market.
After 1991, Maribor's economy experienced great changes in the structure of business companies, in the structure of revenues, and in production in individual branches of the economy.
TABLE 8: CHANGES IN THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF REVENUE OF THE MARIBOR ECONOMY FROM 1989 TO 1998 (%).
PREGLEDNICA 8: SPREMEMBE V NOTRANJI STRUKTURI PRIHODKOV MARIBORSKEGA GOSPODARSTVA OD 1989-1998 (%).
	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Industry	60.4	49.9	45.5	44.2	41.3	40.3	37.0	38.2	36.1	31.0
Construction	7.9	8.3	6.7	6.9	6.7	7.5	7.9	6.8	6.6	6.2
Transportation and telecommunications	3.2	4.0	3.7	3.9	2.2	1.6	6.7	7.2	6.9	7.4
Trade	23.0	28.0	29.2	26.9	31.5	26.2	24.1	29.8	28.6	30.1
Financial services	1.4	3.8	8.5	10.0	9.5	16.2	15.9	15.3	17.8	12.3
Other	4.1	6.0	6.7	8.1	8.8	8.2	8.4	2.7	4.0	13.0
Industry's share in the revenue of the Maribor economy fell sharply between 1989 and 1991, and more moderately in the period after 1991. The decline of industrial production has a decisive role in Maribor's economic regression, in comparison with the country as a whole. The smallest drop in the revenues of the Maribor's economy occurred in 1993. The successful growth of income from trade was the result of the relatively small fall in revenues in the Slovene economy. After 1993, the financial services branch recorded growth, to a great extent the result of the activation of a greater number of small companies needing financial services.15 The 1995 deviation from the normal pattern of revenues in the transportation and telecommunications sector was a consequence of transferring the headquarters of Slovenia's Post Office from Ljubljana to Maribor.
TABLE 9: INDEX OF GROWTH OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, ANNUALLY AND CUMULATIVE FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1986 AND 1998 FOR MARIBOR AND SLOVENIA.16
PREGLEDNICA 9: INDEXI RASTI INDUSTRIJSKE PROIZVODNJE PO LETIH IN KUMULATIVNO ZA OBDOBJE 1986 DO 1998 ZA MARIBOR IN SLOVENIJO.
	87/86	88/87	89/88	90/89	91/90	92/91	93/92	94/93	95/94	96/95	97/96	98/97
MB	98.1	92.3	96.6	84.8	86.2	92.7	97.8	93.7	93.6	91.8	109.0	100.0
SLO	98.8	97.4	101.1	89.8	89.2	89.9	98.2	104.1	102.0	101.0	101.0	103.7
MB	-1.9	-9.6	-13.0	-28.2	-42.0	-49.3	-51.5	-57.8	-64.1	-72.3	-63.3	-63.3
SLO	-1.2	-3.8	-2.7	-12.9	-23.7	-33.8	-35.6	-31.5	-29.5	-28.5	27.7	-23.8
	100
	90
	80
	70
tot	
ds	60
o	
£	50
ge	
enta	40
rce	
Cl.	30
	20
	10
	0
1989 1990
1991
1992
1993 1994 Year / Leto
1995
1996
1997
1998
Other ostalo
Financial services finančne storitve
Trade trgovina
Transportation and telecommunications promet in zveze
Construction gradbeništvo
Industry industrija
Figure 12: Changes in the internal structure of revenue of the Maribor economy from 1989 to 1998 (%). Slika 12: Spremembe v notranji strukturi prihodkov mariborskega gospodarstva od 1989-1998.
Figure 13: Index of growth of industrial production, annually and cumulative for the period between 1986 and 1998 for Maribor and Slovenia.16 Slika 13: Indexi rasti industrijske proizvodnje po letih in kumulativno za obdobje 1986 do 1998 za Maribor in Slovenijo.
The presented annual indexes of industrial production for the period from 1986 to 1998 for Maribor and Slovenia show that industrial production in Maribor is considerably below the country's average. A slight revival of production in 1993 is followed by a renewed fall while industrial production in Slovenia crossed the index of100 for the first time the same, and the growth, although slower, continued. The results show that Maribor's industry is experiencing great shocks.
Figure 14: Changes in the proportion of revenue in individual sectors of Maribor's industry, 1987-1998 (Lorber 1993; data: SDK and APP).18 Slika 14: Spremembe v deležih prihodkov posameznih dejavnosti mariborske industrije 1987-1998.
TABLE 10: CHANGES IN THE PROPORTION OF REVENUE IN INDIVIDUAL SECTORS OF MARIBOR'S INDUSTRY, 1987-1998.17
PREGLEDNICA 10: SPREMEMBE V DELEŽIH PRIHODKOV POSAMEZNIH DEJAVNOSTI MARIBORSKE INDUSTRIJE 1987-1998.
	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	
115	34.9	32.9	27.4	29.7	26.8	14.8	3.1	3.8	5.8	7.3	DM
113	7.9	6.4	6.4	8.5	9.8	10.8	7.1	8.8	9.4	9.8	DJ
125	9.9	10.6	14.1	11.5	10.5	15.7	13.6	9.9	9.2	8.8	DB
117	6.2	6.2	6.4	4.9	4.3	8.3	9.2	10.5	11.0	10.6	DL
130	6.7	6.6	6.7	6.5	8.6	16.2	17.1	17.8	15.3	14.0	DA
0	34.4	37.7	39.0	38.9	40.0	34.2	49.9	49.2	49.3	49.5	0
In the 1980's, the most important activity was the production of heavy vehicles, which in 1987 contributed 31.7% to the revenue of Maribor industry. Because of the loss of markets, this share fell sharply. The absolute amount of this drop was much larger, since industrial production in Maribor in this period decreased by 42%. The second most important activity was the production of the textile yarns and fabrics, which contributed around 10% to the revenues.
The lack of a propulsive industry19 resulted in the rapid drop in industrial production. The process of internally restructuring production in the Maribor economy is proceeding very slowly. Its traditional industrial activities such as the production of heavy vehicles,20 textiles,21 electric appliances,22 and construction machinery23 experienced a major drop in production. These industrial activities had had their markets in the territory of the former Yugoslavia and had been »privileged« at both the national and local level. The proportion of investment in research and development and in the modernization of production had not been sufficient.24 Attempts were made to solve problems in heavy vehicle production with subventions.
One of the reasons that links with foreign capital had not been successful was state intervention. The job-preservation grants had exactly the opposite effect than expected. State subventions were used to restore liquidity and to pay the wages of employees. The companies fell prey to the so called »wait and see«25 effect.
TABLE 11: NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES BY INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES. PREGLEDNICA 11: ŠTEVILO ZAPOSLENIH PO INDUSTRIJSKIH DEJAVNOSTIH
	1994 employees %		1995 employees	%	1996 employees	%	1997 employees	%	1998 employees	%
DA	2122	12.4	2302	16.1	2219	14.8	1736	11.6	1584	11.5
DB	4349	25.3	3421	23.9	3039	20.2	2829	18.9	1897	13.8
DL	1473	8.6	1408	9.6	1426	9.5	1490	9.9	1477	10.7
DM	1285	7.5	659	4.6	1444	9.6	1485	9.9	1570	11.4
DK	2086	12.1	1869	13.2	2150	14.3	2268	15.1	2078	15.1
DJ	2234	13.0	1349	9.6	1564	10.4	1568	10.4	1428	10.4
DG + DH	891	5.2	920	6.5	904	6.0	873	5.8	747	5.5
OTHER	2730	15.9	2362	16.5	2284	15.2	2764	18.4	2960	21.6
Total	17170	100.0	14290	100.0	15030	100.0	15013	100.0	13741	100.0
After 1994, fluctuations in the number of employees in industry calmed. The textile branch is still in a major crisis that is reflected in the constantly dwindling number of employees.
The number of unemployed grew rapidly after 1989 when the rapid deterioration of Maribor's industry occurred. The proportion of unemployed varies between 22% and 23.9%, while the national average is about 14%. This fact illustrates the crisis in Maribor's economy, especially in its industry. The proportion of long-term unemployed is 68.1%, which is 10% above the national average.26
Maribor and the Podravje region are aware of the importance of reestablishing conditions that will attract investors and foreign capital. The development of scientific and research activity, transportation, tourism,
OTHER [
DG+DH
DJ
DK
DM [ DL t DB DA
1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Figure 15^ Number of employees by industrial activities. Slika 15: Število zaposlenih po industrijskih dejavnostih.
and commerce are the key to the regional development of the Maribor area. Creating economic business zones, opening new workplaces, and employing an appropriate work force in tertiary activities represent a way out of the economic crisis. The construction of an infrastructure network linked with the development axes of the European space and awareness of the urgent need to establish regional links will enable the creation of an economically functional region in the context of Europe.
7. Conclusion
Scientific development and technological advances caused structural changes in the economy, especially the deindustrialization and tertiarization of the economy and the formation of a global market. The 1990's saw the collapse of the socialist social order and the transformation of the economic system of the countries in transition to the market economy.
The transition process has involved most intensely the post-socialist countries of the entire Eastern European bloc, and Slovenia is experiencing it as well. The countries in transition are facing the problems of forming their own national economies and joining the world market, as well as the problems of restructuring old industrial branches and rehabilitating depressed industrial zones.
The formation of a common global economy also dictates the integration of the European market. The differences in the development level of individual national economies, especially in the post-socialist countries, demand development of and adaptation to the market economy, as well as the ability to appear competitively in the world market. In Slovenia, economic and spatial integration into Europe is understood as a process that signifies the power to develop and demands political commitment and a clear national interest.
The essence of restructuring Slovene industry lies in adapting to world market conditions. The economic goal is long-term growth in productivity, which should provide a high and growing standard of living for the population and ensure the uniform development of individual regions. Successfully achieving this goal depends primarily on the possibilities for industrial development, which is closely linked with the development of other branches of the economy.
Industrial activity remains a key economic branch in the postindustrial period, but only if it successfully accomplishes the restructuring of classic industry and develops highly technological activity with a high
□	1994
■	1995
□	1996
□	1997
■	1998
added value. The internal restructuring of industry and the tertiarization process have caused changes in the structure of employment that reflect the significant growth of service activities as compared with companies where the number of employees in production is decreasing. The growth of the production-oriented service sector is a process supporting tertiarization and is present in all economic activities. Although service activities have proliferated, they are still primarily linked with production although but the share of services in the added value of products is growing. The successful restructuring of industry and an ecological production orientation will ensure development possibilities for the economy.
In the Slovene economy, people are aware that to restructure industry successfully it is necessary to encourage synergy between industry and science. Inclusion in the world market will only be successful if companies grow based on the technologically more demanding products and processes in production and service activities. Investment in research and development is the primary condition for the economic development of regions. Employing a highly skilled work force capable of innovative creation and an aggressive appearance in competitive markets and able to cope with the demands of the world market through permanent upgrading of skills will ensure successful economic development.
The national interest of developed countries lies in the encouragement of regional development oriented toward the economic transformation of the economy and the rehabilitation of degraded areas stagnating due to the economic crisis. Establishing links between Slovenia and European Union is one of the crucial processes influencing economic, social, and cultural change and a basis of the further social development of Slovenia.
8. Bibliography
Briggs K., Feletar D., 1996: Osnovne grupe čimbenika koji utječu na lokaciju industrije s označenim faktorima - filterima, Rugjer, Zagreb.
Economic Survey of Europe, No. 1. (1999), United Nations, Economic Commission four Europe, New York and Geneva.
Economic Survey of Europe, No. 2. (1998), United Nations, New York and Geneva.
Feletar D., 1996: Svjetsko gospodarstvo na pragu postindustrijskog doba - Opet jedna prekretnica! Rugjer, Zagreb.
Feletar D., Stiperski Z., 1997: Procesi tranzicije kao faktor promjena broja i strukture stanovništva županijskih središta u Hrvatskoj, Acta Geographica Croatica, Zagreb.
Haggard S., Webb S. B., 1993: What do We Know About the Political Economy of Economic Policy Reforms?
Keinath W. F., 1985: The spatial component of the post - industrial sociaty, Economic geography, Worcester, USA.
Komisija evropskih skupnosti 1997: Priprava pridruženih držav Srednje in Vzhodne Evrope na vključitev v notranji trg Evropske unije, Bela knjiga, Ljubljana.
Letna in vmesna poročila o gospodarskih in finančnih gibanjih slovenskega in mariborskega gospodarstva za obdobje 1990-1998, Agencija RS za plačilni promet, Urad RS za makroekonomske analize in razvoj, Gospodarska zbornica Slovenije, Mestna občina Maribor, Statistični urad RS, Ekonomski institut Pravne fakultete Univerze v Ljubljani.
Lorber L., 1993: Vpliv industrije na razvoj Maribora, magistrska naloga, Zagreb.
Lorber L., 1998: Integracija Slovenije v evropski prostor, Raziskovalec, Ljubljana.
Lorber L., 1998: Pomen znanosti in tehnologije (tehnoloških parkov) na prestrukturiranje gospodarstva (na primeru Slovenije), Acta Geographica Croatica, Zagreb.
Lorber L., 1999: Procesi prestrukturiranja industrije Maribora in njihov vpliv na transformacijo prostora, doktorsko delo, Prirodoslovno - matematična fakulteta Sveučilišča v Zagrebu, Zagreb.
Ministrstvo za gospodarske dejavnosti 1996: Strategija povečanja konkurenčne sposobnosti slovenske industrije (s analitičnim delom), Ljubljana.
Pak M., 1995: Reshaping of the trans- border cooperation in Slovenia. Local and Regional Development During the 1990s Transition in Eastern Europe, Avebury.
Senjur M., 1993: Strateška vprašanja gospodarske tranzicije Slovenije v mednarodni primerjavi, 1989-1992,
IB, Zavod RS za makroekonomske analize in razvoj, Ljubljana. The World Bank Atlas 1991, 1997, Washington, D. C.
Vrišer I., 1997: Metodologija ekonomske geografije. Filozofska fakulteta Univerze v Ljubljani, Ljubljana. World Economic Outlook, Globalization Opportunities and Challenges, May1997, Washington, D. C., USA Zbornik 1988: Die Erneuerung alter Industrieregionen - Oekonomischer Strukturwandel und Regionalpolitik im internationalen Vergleich, uredil Joachim Jens Hesse, Baden - Baden.
9. Endnotes
1	Feletar D., (1988): Industrijska geografija- mjesto u kompleksnoj geografiji, definicija i osnovne postavke. (Industrial geography - its position in complex geography, definition, and basic assumptions).
2	World Economic Outlook, Globalization, Opportunities and Challenges, May 1997, Washington, D. C., USA.
3	In classifying countries in 1997, the International Monetary Fund also ranked Israel and the four »Asian tigers« (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) among the countries with developed economies. World Economic Outlook, Globalization, Opportunities and Challenges, May 1997, Washington, D. C., USA.
4	Before 1989, the proportion of today's countries in transition in the world GDP was greater than 10%. Source: Economic Commission for Europe, UN (1997): Economic Survey of Europe in 1996-1997, Geneva;
5	R & D = Research and Development
6	The developed Asian countries are Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea. World Economic Outlook, Globalization Opportunities and Challenges, May 1997, Washington, D. C., USA
7	The deindustrialization process was first realized in South Korea and Taiwan, Hong Kong (at the end of 1970's), and Singapore (at the end of 1980's). World Economic Outlook, Globalization Opportunities and Challenges, May 1997, Washington, D. C., USA
8	The decline of employment in the industry of countries in transition is a consequence of the drop in industrial production and the restructuring of industry. The deindustrialization process began in recent years when part of the industry had been restructured. Source: World Economic Outlook, Globalization Opportunities and Challenges, May 1997, Washington, D. C., USA
9	Porter M.E. (1990): The Competitive Advantage of Nations. New York. Free Press.
10	Haggard S., Webb S. B. (1993): What Do We Know about the Political Economy of Economic Policy Reforms? The World Bank Research Observer, 8 (2), pp. 143-168.
11	Kumar A., (1994): Razvoj in usmerjanje zunanje trgovine, Strategija gospodarskega razvoja Slovenije (Development and Orientation of Foreign Trade, a Strategy for the Economic Development of Slovenia), ZMAR, Ljubljana.
12	Van Den Broek, H. (1994): The Challenge of a Wider Europe; a speech at the Academy for European Studies, Brussels, RAPID database.
13	Growth, Competitiveness, Employment (1993); The Challenges and Ways Forward into the 21st Century, White Paper, Bulletin of the European Communities, Supplement 6/93, Luxembourg.
14	Kumar A., (1995): Evropska unija in Slovenija, Strategija gospodarskega razvoja Slovenije. Zavod RS za makroekonomske analize in razvoj, Ljubljana (The European Union and Slovenia, a Strategy for the Economic Development of Slovenia. Institute of the Republic of Slovenia for Macroeconomic Analyses and Development, Ljubljana).
15	In the period between 1992 and 1994, financial engineering companies were the main source of capital for newly created private companies. During the period of the high inflation, the grey financial market lent money at usurious interest rates. After inflation had been curbed, the majority of these financial engineering companies collapsed because they were no longer able to pay the unrealistically high interest, let alone the principal, to their investors. The grey financial market therefore collapsed in 1995.
16	The data for Maribor's 98/97 index has been calculated so that the nominal value of industrial production in 1998 is reduced by the level of inflation.
17	In April 1996, the classification of industrial activities was changed. The key for connecting the EKD with the SKD activities:
EKD SKD Description
130	DA Food-processing industry,
131	DA Beverage production,
132	DA Animal fodder production
125	DB Yarn and textiles production
126	DB Textile end products production
117 DL Electric machinery and appliances production,
115 DM Vehicle production
114 DK Machine construction,
113 DJ Metal processing
129 DH Rubber processing
18	Data was not collected for 1992 and 1993.
19	A propulsive industry accelerates the development of accompanying new production and services.
20	TAM bankruptcy, as a result of the »wait and see/see and wait« [See note above.] effect and state intervention.
21	Problems and bankruptcy of MTT in Melj. The crisis in the textile branch is still worsening, and this branch is recording continuing significant regression and a dwindling number of employees.
22	The 1994 data shows a low proportion of production, a consequence of the Elektrokovina bankruptcy. In 1996, production increased due to the Siemens investment in the Svetila (Lighting) division of Elektrokovina.
23	In 1994, production was low, and Metalna went bankrupt. Metalna broke up, and one part was taken over by the Palfinger company (direct foreign-capital investment). Another part renewed a part of the production after 1995 and is today achieving favourable economic results. This is why the proportion of production in the machine construction segment increased its share in the structure of production.
24	Investment in the Maribor economy reached 75% of the national average in 1990, and only 67% in the years 1992-1994. Source: Lorber L., (1999), Procesi prestrukturiranja industrije Maribora in njihov vpliv na transformacijo prostora, doktorsko delo (Processes of restructuring the industry of Maribor, and their influence on the transformation of space, doctoral dissertation), Zagreb
25	Klemmer, P. (1988), Adaptive Problems of Old Industrial Areas, The Ruhr Area as an Example, Baden Baden.
26	National Employment Institute, Maribor Unit.
10. Summary in Slovene - Povzetek
Gospodarska tranzicija Slovenije v procesu globalizacije
Lučka Lorber
1. Uvod
Človekova dejavnost je oblikovala stopnjo razvoja družbe, odnose med ljudmi in do okolja. Industrijska revolucija je povzročila največji in najhitrejši razvoj civilizacije v 19. in 20. stol. V temelju je spremenila odnose v družbi in v prostoru. Prvo obdobje industrializacije je pomenilo izkoriščanje surovin, energije in človeka ter močno degradacijo okolja. Hiter proces industrializacije je sprožil deagrarizacijo ruralne-ga prostora in urbani razvoj mest, mobilnost delovne sile in blaga, rušile so se stare vrednote in spreminjal se je način življenja. Tehnološki napredek je vplival na izboljšanje življenjskih razmer, spremenila se je demografska slika in struktura prebivalstva, poselitveni vzorec naselij, infrastrukturna mreža, gospodarska rast in družbeni standard.
Integracija znanosti in tehnologije ter uvajanje vrhunske tehnologije v proizvodnjo je povzročilo prestrukturiranje svetovnega gospodarstva, zlasti pa industrijske dejavnosti v razvitih okoljih. Proces deindustria-lizacije je posledica tehnološkega napredka in gospodarskega razvoja razvitih ekonomij. Spremembe so vplivale na strukturo industrije, povečala se je industrijska proizvodnja, kljub zmanjšanju števila zaposlenih v sekundarnem sektorju. Vzporedno je nastopil proces terciarizacije in kvartarizacije prebivalstva v strukturi osnovnih dejavnostnih skupin.
Proces industrializacije poteka v različnih razvojnih ciklusih, ki so odvisni od naravnih in družbenih razmer v posameznih okoljih. Na prehodu v novo tisočletje dobiva značaj globalnosti, čeprav je proces industrializacije v posameznih okoljih še nerazvit. Družba prehaja v postindustrijsko obdobje, ki ga označuje odprto svetovno gospodarsko tržišče. Vključitev na skupni gospodarski trg zahteva prestrukturiranje celotnega gospodarstva, tako razvitih kot nerazvitih držav.
V	postindustrijskem obdobju globalni procesi oblikovanja mednarodnega gospodarskega trga še poglabljajo razlike med razvitimi in nerazvitimi območji sveta. Prevlado v svetu imajo najrazvitejše države s pomočjo znanosti, informacij in kapitala. Poglabljajo se zlasti gospodarske in socialne razlike, ki se odražajo tudi na demografskih pokazateljih. Po padcu berlinskega zidu je prišlo do sprememb v družbenih sistemih postsocialističnih držav, ki uvajajo tržno ekonomijo in doživljajo gospodarsko prenovo.
V	devetdesetih letih se je Slovenija opredelila za tržno gospodarstvo, ki zahteva vključevanje na svetovni trg in zlasti v evropske integracijske procese. Slovenija je še vedno država v tranziciji, ki se spopada s problemi oblikovanja lastnega nacionalnega gospodarstva in vključitve na svetovni trg ter s problemi prestrukturiranja starih industrijskih panog in saniranja depresivnih industrijskih con.
V	obdobju 1991 do 1999 je nastopilo v Sloveniji obdobje procesov prestrukturiranja industrije, ki so dejavnik spreminjanja socialnogeografskih struktur in s tem v zvezi spreminjanja fizionomije pokrajine oziroma njene transformacije.
2. Trendi v razvoju svetovnega gospodarstva
Z oblikovanjem svetovnega gospodarskega trga se industrijski geografi vse bolj ukvarjajo z industrializacijo kot živim procesom, ki vpliva na fizionomijo, funkcijo in transformacijo prostora. Kompleksni pristop proučevanja definira industrijo kot pojav in faktor v geografskem prostoru. Z razvojem komunikacijskih in infrastrukturnih mrež je po drugi svetovni vojni prišlo do fenomena globalizacije mednarodnega trga dobrin, servisnih uslug in trga kapitala.
Opazovanje gibanj svetovne blagovne menjave nam pokaže razvitost finančnega trga, ki vpliva na procese globalizacije. Globalizacija svetovnega gospodarstva je imela za posledico poglobitev razlik med razvitimi in nerazvitimi državami. Mednarodni monetarni sklad je na osnovi spremljanja podatkov razvrstil države sveta na tri osnovne skupine:
1.	Razvite države - 28 držav:
•	G7 (Francija, Nemčija, Italija, Velika Britanija, Kanada, Japonska in ZDA),
•	EU (Avstrija, Belgija, Danska, Finska, Grčija, Irska, Luksemburg, Nizozemska, Portugalska, Španija, Švedska),
•	novoindustrializirane azijske ekonomije (Hong Kong, Južna Koreja, Singapur, Tajvan),
•	ostale države (Avstralija, Islandija, Izrael, Nova Zelandija, Norveška, Švica).
2.	Države v razvoju - 127 držav:
•	Afrika (50 držav),
•	Azija (26 držav),
•	Bližnji vzhod in Evropa (17 držav),
•	Zahodna polobla (34 držav).
3. Države v tranziciji - 28 držav:
•	Srednja in vzhodna Evropa (18 držav),
•	Rusija,
•	Transkavkaške in Srednjeazijske države (9 držav).
S poglabljanjem razlik med razvitimi in nerazvitimi državami vodi večji del sveta v zaostalost in socialno nestabilnost, ki se kaže v glavnih gospodarskih in demografskih kazalcih. Z razvojem znanja in z informacijskimi mrežami razvite države namenjajo veliko pozornost prestrukturiranju delovne sile, omogočajo povezovanje kapitala in prostora ter zagotavljajo ekološko zaščito prostora. Predstavljajo gonilno silo gospodarskega razvoja, njegove regionalne razporejenosti, dolgoročnih trendov, ki posledično vplivajo na preoblikovanje in razvoj prostora.
V	l. 1996 so razvite države ustvarile 56,6 % svetovnega BND in so udeležene z 78,6 % v svetovnem izvozu dobrin in uslug (države G7 45,4 % BND in 48 % izvoza). Države v razvoju ustvarijo 39,2 % BND in 17,3 % izvoza. Delež držav v tranziciji je v obeh segmentih 4,2 % svetovnega deleža. Novo industrializirane azijske ekonomije prispevajo 3,4 % BND in 10,2 % svetovnega izvoza (Hong Kong 3,4 %, Južna Koreja 2,4 %, Singapur 2,4 % in Tajvan 2,0 %).
2.1. Proces terciarizacije svetovnega gospodarstva
Globalizacija svetovnega gospodarstva je imela za posledico hitro rast industrijske proizvodnje v državah v razvoju. Komperativne prednosti držav v razvoju so bile poceni delovna sila in bližina naravnih bogastev. Razviti svet, katerega vodilo je bilo svobodno trgovanje se je soočil s konkurenco cenejših proizvodov.
Stari industrijski centri razvitega sveta so naenkrat doživeli krizo, ki se je najprej pokazala v stagnaciji delovno intenzivnih industrijskih panog, nato pa v očitnem nazadovanju. Odgovor razvitega sveta je bil v pospešenem vlaganju v R&D. Na ta način je prišlo do naglega razvoja novih proizvodov, materialov in tehnologij. Prvič se je intenzivno združilo znanje in proizvodnja. V industrijsko najrazvitejših državah (s 15 % svetovnega prebivalstva) se letno registrira približno 90 % vseh patentov, v preostalih delih sveta (s 85 % svetovnega prebivalstva) pa samo 10 %. Vpeljevanje dosežkov znanosti v proizvodnjo se je odražalo v hitrem naraščanju dodane vrednosti na enoto proizvoda.
Nova industrijska proizvodnja je na osnovi znanstvenih dosežkov zahtevala vedno nove usluge s področja informatike in financ. Spremenila je obstoječi stereotip o industriji. Industrijski giganti, prej ponos in gonilna sila razvoja so zašli v velike težave. Ta proces se je v najrazvitejših državah pričel že konec petdesetih let, da bi postal problem v šestdesetih letih. Delovno intenzivne panoge niso mogle slediti hitro rastoči »footloos« industriji v ustvarjanju dodane vrednosti. Klasični lokacijski faktorji razmestitve industrije so začeli izgubljati svoj pomen.
V	razvitih državah se je struktura gospodarske proizvodnje spremenila. Proces deindustrializacije in terciarizacije je pomenil prehod zaposlenih iz sekundarnih v terciarne in kvartarne dejavnosti in je osnovna značilnost postindustrijskega obdobja.
Padec deleža zaposlenih lahko primerjamo z dramatičnim padcem zaposlenih v primarnem gospodarskem sektorju po industrijski revoluciji. Proces industrializacije ne poteka povsod enako, odvisen je od stopnje družbenoekonomskega razvoja posamezne družbe. Delež industrijskega prebivalstva še vedno narašča v državah v razvoju, ki so v fazi industrializacije gospodarstva.
V	razvitih državah je rast družbenega proizvoda visoka v industriji in storitvenih dejavnostih. Prisoten je padec deleža zaposlenih v industriji, močno pa se povečuje delež zaposlenih v terciarnem in kvartarnem sektorju. Pozitivna deindustrializacija je nastopila, ko je industrija začela odpuščati delovno silo zaradi dviga produktivnosti. Značilno za razvite družbe je visoka gospodarska rast in nizka brezposelnost, saj se presežki delovne sile zaposlijo v hitro razvijajočem terciarnem in kvartarnem sektorju. Število zaposlenih v industriji je padlo od 28 % v l. 1970 na približno 18 % v l. 1994. Proces deindustrializacija se
je pričel sredi 60. let v ZDA. V državah Evropske unije je sledil v 70. letih, kjer se je znižal delež od 30 % na 20 % zaposlenih v industriji v l. 1994. V naslednjih letih se pričakuje, da bo delež zaposlenih v industriji padel na 14 %.
V	ZDA smo priča drugačnemu razvoju kot je značilen za razvite ekonomije zahodnoevropskih držav. Delež zaposlenih v industriji se v absolutnem številu ni zmanjšal, medtem ko v državah EU občutno pada (približno 25 %). Razvite države Azije so sledile zakonitostim gospodarskega razvoja tako, da so najprej izvedle proces industrializacije in šele po l. 1989 deindustrializacijo.
Proces deindustrializacije ne pomeni negativni pojav propadanja industrijskega sektorja ali gospodarstva nasploh, kot se pogosto označuje. Nasprotno, deindustrializacija je naravna posledica gospodarskega razvoja v naprednih ekonomijah in je povezana z dvigom življenjskega standarda. To seveda ne pomeni, da deindustrializacija ne prinaša težav. Storitveni sektor ne more v tako kratkem času zaposliti viška delovne sile, ker splošna gospodarska rast ni dovolj velika, tudi zaradi institucionalne okorelosti trga delovna sile, zakonodajnih ovir ali nizkih vlaganj v storitvene dejavnosti.
V	zadnjem desetletju je bil gospodarski razvoj v razvitih državah cikličen in neenakomeren. Države so se razlikovale po stopnji gospodarske rasti v posameznih obdobjih. Po letu 1989 se je sprožil proces negativne deindustrializacije v državah tranzicije, katerega posledica je visok delež brezposelne delovne sile, ki je izgubila zaposlitev v industriji in nima možnosti zaposlitve v terciarnem sektorju.
Večina držav v razvoju žal ne uživa prednosti globalizacije. Svojo bodočnost vidijo v počasnem izboljšanju življenjske ravni in počasnih spremembah. Tako se poglabljajo razlike med razvitimi in nerazvitimi državami ne samo v relativnem ampak tudi v absolutnem smislu. Države v razvoju so potrebne korenitih političnih, družbenih in gospodarskih sprememb.
3. Tranzicija v postsocialisticnih državah
Prehajanje gospodarskega sistema držav v tranziciji v tržno gospodarstvo, pomeni globalne spremembe in novo kakovost v celotnih družbenih odnosih.
Proces tranzicije je najintenzivneje zajel post socialistične države, nove samostojne države in nestabilna stagnantna gospodarstva v bivših (azijskih) socialističnih državah. Pod vplivom žametne revolucije 1989-1990 so propadli totalitarni družbeni režimi v Evropi. Komunistični režimi v majhnih socialističnih državah vzhodne Evrope so prepustili oblast ali pa so jo morali deliti z opozicijo. Politične spremembe so prinesle preoblikovanje ekonomskega sistema. Do sprememb pa ni prišlo samo v manjših nacionalnih ekonomijah, pač pa je proces zajel celotni vzhodnoevropski blok, ki ga je vodila Sovjetska zveza s centralističnim planskim načrtovanjem in vodenjem gospodarstva.
S kolapsom socialističnega družbenega reda in dezintegracijo vzhodnega bloka so se novo nastale in obnovljene nekdanje države soočile z izzivom, ki je nepredvidljiv v mnogih pogledih. Po spremembi režima so se družbe nekdanjih socialističnih držav odločile za pluralistični demokratični družbeni red in tržno gospodarstvo. Prenos razvojnega modela zahodnoevropskih demokracij pa poteka z velikimi ovirami.
Ekonomska prenova, seznanjanje s zakonitostmi tržnega gospodarstva, z integriranjem ex-socialističnih držav v evropsko delitev dela in decentralizacijo moči opočasnjuje proces prestrukturiranja gospodarstva držav v tranziciji.
Interes svetovnega kapitala in tujih investitorjev se je povečal za vlaganja v države v tranziciji, ki imajo večje prednosti kot vlaganja v Afriko in v nekatere azijske in latinskoameriške države. Večina od bivših socialističnih držav ima prebivalstvo s primerno stopnjo izobrazbe in s tem delovno silo, ki jo je moč prekvalificirati za potrebe sodobnega gospodarstva. Infrastrukturno so boljše opremljene in jih je možno vključiti v prometne mreže in povezati s prometnimi logističnimi vozlišči.
Novo nastale države v tranziciji imajo začetniške težave z razpoznavanjem svojih držav, kot samostojnih držav. Razvijati morajo svoje konkurenčne prednosti. Teorija M. Porterja o evoluciji globalne konkurenčnosti pravi, da le ta pri najmanj razvitih gospodarstvih temelji predvsem na strukturi stroškov. To pomeni, da so pri tehnološko nezahtevnih programih proizvodov in storitev, ki se prodajajo v nizkih cenovnih razredih, za konkurenčnost odločilne bistveno nižje plače, socialne dajatve, stroški države ter zanemarjanje okolja. In obratno, konkurenčnost tehnološko zahtevnih programov z visoko dodano vrednostjo temelji predvsem na visoki stopnji tehnološke in inovacijske sposobnosti podjetij, gospodarstva in družbe.
Vlaganja svetovnega kapitala in interes tujih investitorjev je različen po posameznih državah. Neposredna tuja vlaganja privatnega kapitala v države v tranziciji je v porastu tam, kjer so že uspeli ustvariti privlačne pogoje za tuje investitorje. Priliv tujega kapitala naj bi omogočal državam v tranziciji vlaganja tudi v revitalizacijo industrije in posodobitev tehnološke proizvodnje. Tuji investitorji so pripravljeni vlagati kapital najprej v tiste države, ki so sprejele ustrezno zakonodajo, ki zagotavlja zaščito privatnega kapitala in ureja davčno politiko ter zagotavlja optimalne pogoje za razvoj tržnega gospodarstva.
Madžarska je kot prva tranzicijska država sprejela ustrezno zakonodajo. Zato je bil v začetnem obdobju delež neposrednih vlaganj največji. Sledila ji je Češka, katere prednost je bila, da je temeljito prekinila s prejšnjim režimom in močno razvita industrija z kvalificirano delovno silo.
Delež tujih vlaganj v Rusko federacijo in Poljsko je glede na njuno velikost relativno nizek. Problem predstavlja Ruska federacija, kjer politična nestabilnost in težki socialni položaj pomenita visok faktor rizičnosti za tuje naložbe. Najvišjo rast tujih naložb v zadnjem obdobju beleži Poljska, kar je posledica urejene zakonodaje in politične stabilnosti. V ostalih državah v tranziciji vključno s Slovenijo je delež neposrednih tujih investicij nižji.
Sprejeta zakonodaja o tujih vlaganjih v R Sloveniji je prvič po vojni prinesla zakonsko reguliranje in gre v prid tendenci po sistematičnem in dolgoročnem pospeševanju priliva tujih investicij.
Tranzicijski proces postsocialističnih držav, ki ga doživlja tudi Slovenija ima tri ključne značilnosti demokratizacijo, privatizacijo in marketizacijo. Proces politične demokratizacije pomeni prehod iz enopartijskega v večstrankarski demokratični sistem. Novejša literatura, ki povezuje ekonomska in politična vprašanja, proučuje vpliv političnega sistema na ekonomska vprašanja, zlasti vpliv države na tržno gospodarstvo.
Upoštevati je potrebno, da je razvoj gospodarstva odvisen v prvi meri od ekonomskih zakonitosti, ki niso vedno v skladu z državno politiko. Zlasti koalicijske vlade (na oblasti je tudi v Sloveniji) težje sprejemajo odločilne odločitve in tudi težje zagotovijo zakonodajno podporo programom tranzicije.
V večini držav v tranziciji je odprto tudi vprašanje celovite privatizacije. Sam proces ovira vprašanje ideologije in politike interesov. Nekatere države zelo liberalno izpeljujejo proces lastninjenja (Madžarska, Češka), druge spet so zelo previdne ali nemočne (Bolgarija, Rusija, Srbija). Nove neodvisne in samostojne države Slovenija, Hrvaška, Estonija, Litva, Latvija, Slovaška in Makedonija se soočajo še z drugimi nerešenimi problemi. Poteka proces oblikovanja lastnega nacionalnega gospodarstva, ki zahteva izgradnjo definiranega in stabilnega pravnega reda. Novo nastale države se zavedajo pomena svoje odprtosti in internacionalizacije. Do leta 1990 je njihovo gospodarstvo bilo uvozno substitutivne narave, vezano na jugoslovanski trg oziroma na vzhodnoevropski trg. Vsem državam je skupno, da so svoj trg izgubile tako rekoč čez noč, brez možnosti postopnega prehoda in prilagajanja.
Težnje po izvozno usmerjenem gospodarstvu in vključitev na svetovni trg so povsod prisotne in vključene v razvojne nacionalne programe. Vstop na svetovni trg prinaša tudi zahtevo po mednarodni primerljivosti uspešnosti gospodarskih podjetij.
Med uspešnejše države v tranziciji spadajo države CEFTE, Baltiške države in Hrvaška. Uspešnost temelji na izvajanju temeljitih družbenih in gospodarskih reform. Cilj teh držav je, da se vključijo v Evropsko Unijo in v NATO kot enakopravne partnerice.
Primerjava med BND in industrijsko proizvodnjo kaže, da so najmanjša nihanja v industrijski proizvodnji beležile Češka, Slovaška in Poljska. Češka je padec proizvodnje ustavila z večjo domačo porabo, Poljska pa z hitro rastočim izvozom.
Vzrok močnemu padcu proizvodnje na Hrvaškem je posledice vojne, na Madžarskem manjša domača poraba in v Sloveniji izguba južnih trgov. Slovenija je po l. 1994 uspela ustaviti nadaljnji padec industrijske proizvodnje s povečanim izvozom na trg držav Evropske unije in s povečano domačo porabo.
Iz primerjave podatkov o gibanju BND in rasti industrijske proizvodnje sklepamo, da je tercializacija gospodarstva najvišja v Sloveniji in na Češkem, najnižja pa na Poljskem, kjer sta rasti BND in industrijske proizvodnje skoraj proporcionalni.
Družbene spremembe po 1.1989 so imele v vseh državah tranzicije za posledico zmanjšanje industrijske proizvodnje, množično odpuščanje predvsem industrijske delovne sile. Na zmanjševanje zaposlenih v industriji je precej vplivala tudi večja produktivnost v industrijski proizvodnji.
Rast zaposlovanja v zadnjem letu beležita Madžarska in Poljska. Predvsem pri slednji je odpiranje novih delovnih mest posledica intenzivnega pritoka tujega kapatala v l. 1998.
V osemdesetih letih je bila za Slovenijo značilna visoka inflacija s stagnacijo gospodarstva, ki se je v devetdesetih letih prevesila v očitno nazadovanje gospodarske rasti.
Trend nazadovanja gospodarske rasti je bil presežen po 1.1992 in z začetkom oživljanja industrijske proizvodnje po l. 1993. Pozitivni ekonomski tokovi so ob dosledni monetarni politiki Banke Slovenije vplivali na zniževanje inflacije.
4.	Gospodarsko prestrukturiranje Slovenije v primerjavi z drugimi državami
Razlike med državami v tranziciji in razvitimi deželami so velike in se bodo še povečevale. Proces prestrukturiranja, zlasti vključevanje v nove svetovne tokove na pragu nove postindustrijskega obdobja se odvija veliko težje in počasneje v bivših realsocialističnih državah kot v dosedanjih siromašnih država Azije in Latinske Amerike. To dokazuje, da se procesi privatizacije in prehoda v družbo, ki temelji na tržnem gospodarstvu v državah v tranziciji odvijajo prepočasi, ter da se socialistična mentaliteta menja veliko težje in počasneje kot je bilo pričakovano.
Dinamični razvoj in gospodarsko uspešno približevanje povprečni ravni razvitosti gospodarstva razvitih držav je pogoj za vstop v konkurenčni boj na svetovnem trgu. Izvozna prodornost Slovenije je nujni pogoj za njeno vključevanje v gospodarske tokove.
Razvite majhne države se krepko zavedajo, da njihova ozemeljska velikost ni odločilna za njihov razvoj. Med desetimi najbolj razvitimi državami v svetu po BNP na prebivalca sta iz vrst največjih in sedmih gospodarskih velesil uvrščeni le Japonska in ZDA, vse druge pa so manjše in prav vse veliko izvažajo (Švica, Finska, Norveška, Danska, Danska, Švedska, Luksemburg, Islandija in Lihtenštajn). Podobne primerjave lahko najdemo tudi med pacifiškimi državami, ki sicer niso visoko razvite po dinamični rasti, so pa po svoji izvozni prodornosti v samem svetovnem vrhu.
Strateški razvojni cilj in usmerjenost dolgoročnega ravnanja Slovenije mora postati njena uvrstitev med prvo deseterico držav v svetu po vrednosti izvoza na prebivalca. Današnja vrednost izvoza na prebivalca znaša 4638 dolarjev, kar je bistveno več kot v drugih bivših socialističnih državah.
5.	Približevanje Slovenije Evropski uniji
Razvojne možnosti in strateške usmeritve vidi Slovenija v bodočem integriranju slovenskega gospodarstva, politike in denarnega sistema v Evropsko unijo (EU). Upoštevati je potrebno učinkovanje zunanjih
in notranjih dejavnikov na evropsko integriranje določeno z rezultati zlasti domačega gospodarskega delovanja in političnega odločanja.
Zunanji dejavniki so opredeljeni z interesi članstva EU in so določeni tudi s političnimi in ekonomskimi procesi v celotni Evropi in svetu. Evropski procesi, ki so pomembni za Slovenijo so predvsem: uspešnost in dinamika uresničevanja asociacijskih sporazumov, ki jih je EU že sklenila z bivšimi evropskimi socialističnimi državami, spremembe v delovanju Evropskega ekonomskega prostora (EEA) ob skrčenju števila članic (EFTA), razvoj učinkovitosti in pomena Centralno evropskega področja svobodne trgovine (CEFTA) za nadaljevanje integracijskega širjenja EU.
Med zunanjimi dejavniki, ki opredeljujejo bodočo uspešnost integracijskih prizadevanj velja omeniti tudi »zunanjo« presojo gospodarske in tudi širše opredeljene primernosti (konvergentnosti) države za integriranje. Merjenje primernosti in ukrepi za spodbujanje razvoja gospodarske primernosti za integriranje so aktualni teoretski in praktični izzivi (Barro, 1991, Cannullo, 1993). Pomen integracijske primernosti opredeljujejo tudi bolj ali manj jasni kriteriji EU glede širitve članstva.
Vprašanje industrijske politike je še vedno eno odprtih vprašanj evropskih integracijskih procesov. Evropska skupnost je leta 1991 sprejela resolucijo o industrijski politiki, ki izraža podporo k stimuliranju visoke tehnologije in poudarja potrebo za uresničevanje konkretne strategije. Leta 1994 je Komisija sprejela novo poročilo o industrijski politiki, z naslovom Politika industrijske konkurenčne sposobnosti za EU. Pojem »industrijske politike« so zavestno opustili. Pojem konkurenčne sposobnosti je možno uporabiti pri posameznih podjetjih, problematičen pa postane, če ga uporabimo za vso državo ali celo za EU. Novo poročilo se sklicuje na definicijo OECD. Po tej mora konkurenčna sposobnost podjetij, industrijskih panog, regij, narodov ali nadnacionalnih regij s produkcijskimi faktorji v razmerah mednarodne konkurence trajno zagotavljati relativno visoko raven dohodka in zaposlovanja.
Razvoj slovenskega sodobnega odprtega gospodarstva bo terjal upoštevanje procesa poslovne in politične decentralizacije, ki je načrtovana v EU. Učinkovitost tega procesa bo EU gospodarsko in izvedbeno jamčila proračunska in druga podpora tehnološkemu razvoju, ki vodi v razvijanje informacijske družbe. Razvoj informacijske družbe v EU, kar pomeni ustvarjanje pogojev za »multimedijsko komuniciranje«, pomeni celo radikalnejše spremembe od tistih povzročenih s prvo industrijsko revolucijo. »V središču modela razvoja za 21. stoletje je to vprašanje (razvoj informacijske družbe - dodal AK) odločilno za preživetje ali pa nazadovanje Evrope«.
Slovensko prilagajanje bo moralo upoštevati tudi prilagoditve na področju prometne infrastrukture in njeno vključevanje v okvirne programe Euza - področje prometa in tudi energije.
Na področju zaposlovanja je predviden razvoj sistema »doživljenjskega izobraževanja in usposabljanja« delovne sile, podpora večji prilagodljivosti delovne sile glede na poslovno - proizvodne zahteve in uresničitev znižanja relativnih stroškov najmanj kvalificiranih oblik dela.
Nov razvojni model EU predvideva tudi razvoj strukturne povezanosti med vprašanji zaščite okolja in reševanja vprašanj nezaposlenosti. Namen te usmeritve je doseganje večje gospodarske rasti ob sočasnem povečanju zaposlenosti in zmanjšani uporabi naravnih virov v proizvodnji in potrošnji. Pri uresničevanju novega razvojnega modela bodo v EU iskali v razvoju novih »čistih « proizvodenj in dejavnosti. Ključ uresničitve te usmeritve je v razvoju novih znanj in tehnologij za razvoj »čiste proizvodnje.«
Pomen te usmeritve za Slovenijo je več plasten, od možnosti izbire lastnih primerjalnih prednosti na tej osnovi, do strokovnih in drugih naporov za vključitev v nastajajoče razvojno raziskovalne projekte.
Za države EU je značilna izrazita okoljevarstvena usmerjenost, pri čemer predvsem skandinavske države ter Nemčija in Nizozemska narekujejo celo svetovne trende. Zaradi potrebe po vključevanju je neizogibno, da se slovensko gospodarstvo prestrukturira tudi glede na okoljevarstvene zahteve tega trga. Ker gre obenem tudi za trg finančnega kapitala, ki je vedno bolj naklonjen okoljevarstvenim projektom, so tudi
možnosti prestrukturiranja slovenskega gospodarstva skladno z okoljevarstvenimi zahtevami precej večje. Pravni sistem in ekonomska politika Slovenije se bo morala prilagoditi zahtevam političnega, ekonomskega in civilizacijskega razvoja.
6. Obdobje prehoda Slovenije na tržno gospodarstvo (1991-1999)
Iz strukture ekonomskih sektorjev gospodarskega razvoja sledi, da Slovenija prehaja v postindustrijsko obdobje. Po osamosvojitvi in s prehodom na tržno gospodarstvo se je v industriji naglo zmanjšalo število zaposlenih, hkrati se je razmahnil terciarni sektor.
V Sloveniji je prevladala strategija, ki določa nujni razvoj domačega podjetništva in podjetij, ki bodo sposobna tekmovati na globalnih trgih. Slovenska industrijska politika temelji na tržnem gospodarjenju in merilih izvozne prednosti, tehnološke in inovacijske obetavnosti, energetske nezahtevnosti, ekološke neobremenjenosti in evropskih tehnično - tehnoloških standard.
Slovensko gospodarstvo kot celota potrebuje odprt sistem in odprto ekonomsko razvojno tehnološko politiko, ki bo zagotavljala vključevanje v mednarodno menjavo. Slovenija še vedno išče »najugodnejše« strateške zveze povezovanja industrijskih panog, ki bi omogočile nastopanje na novih trgih in povečale proizvodno zmogljivost.
Najuspešnejša podjetja svoje poslovanje vse bolj internacionalizirajo. Odprto pa je še vedno vprašanje strategije do privabljanja tujih direktnih naložb, prihod tujih multinacionalk oz. strah pred tujo politično in ekonomsko odvisnostjo.
Evropska unija ugotavlja, da je trend združevanja podjetij za zagotavljanje večje svetovne konkurenčnosti na vseh ravneh zelo močan, zlasti na evropski in mednarodni ravni.
Analitiki ugotavljajo, da Slovenija zaostaja za evropsko primerljivo konkurenco na področju tehnologije in tehnološkega znanja, v strojni opremi, zlasti v računalniško podprti sistemski opremi, na kateri poteka tehnološki proces in z vlaganji v investicije.
6.1. Strukturne spremembe v industriji Maribora
Z osamosvojitvijo Slovenije, z razpadom enotnega jugoslovanskega trga in z izgubo vzhodnega (SEV) trga ter s prehodom na tržno gospodarstvo so industrijski kraji in regije, ki so se razvijale na osnovi industrijskega razvoja doživele gospodarsko krizo. Ekonomska politika socialističnega sistema ni dopuščala pravočasnega prestrukturiranja klasične industrije v skladu z zahtevami tržnega gospodarstva, ki se je oblikovalo v evropskem prostoru. Primer je kriza mariborske industrije.
Maribor, ki je predstavljal enega najmočnejših industrijskih centrov v Sloveniji in v bivšem jugoslovanskem prostoru se že dalj časa nahaja v krizi, ki zahteva celovito družbeno in gospodarsko prestrukturiranje. Mariborsko gospodarstvo je doživelo nagel padec industrijske proizvodnje koncem 80. let, zaradi nepripravljenosti na družbene in gospodarske spremembe, ki so sledile. Struktura mariborske industrije je temeljila na kapitalno dragi in dohodkovni skromni strukturi. Koncentrirana je bila v gigantih, ki so dosegli višek učinkovitosti v šestdesetih letih. Po tem obdobju je sledil konstantni padec družbenega produkta v družbenem produktu Slovenije.
Industrija je večino dohodka ustvarjala v velikih podjetjih s proizvodnjo gospodarskih vozil, investicijske opreme in s tekstilno industrijo, usmerjeno pretežno za potrebe jugoslovanskega trga. Ker ni imela malih in srednje velikih podjetij, ki bi bila fleksibilnejša in bi se lažje prilagodijo spremembam na trgu, je Maribor doživel usodo starih industrijskih mest. Klasična industrija ni proizvajala blaga za široko potrošnjo in izdelkov z visoko dodano vrednostjo, zato ni mogla s svojo ponudbo nastopiti na konkurenčnih trgih in nadoknaditi izgube južnega trga.
Po letu 1991 je prišlo v mariborskem gospodarstvu do velikih sprememb v strukturi gospodarskih podjetij, v strukturi prihodkov gospodarstva in v proizvodnji po dejavnostih.
Delež industrije v prihodku mariborskega gospodarstva je strmo padal v obdobju 1989 do 1991 in zmer-neje v obdobju po letu 1991. Padec industrijske proizvodnje ima odločilno vlogo v gospodarskem nazadovanju Maribora v primerjavi z republiškim. Najmanjši padec v prihodkih gospodarstva je Maribor doživel leta 1993. Rezultat relativno nizkega padca dohodka v slovenskem gospodarstvu je bila uspešna rast dohodka trgovine. Po letu 1993 beleži rast dejavnost finančnih storitev, kar je v veliki meri posledica aktiviranja večjega števila malih podjetij, ki so potrebovala finančni servis. Odstopanje od normalne rasti prihodka dejavnosti promet in zveze v 1.1995 je posledica prenosa sedeža Pošte Slovenije iz Ljubljane v Maribor.
Prikazani letni indeksi industrijske proizvodnje od 1986 do leta 1998 za mariborsko in slovensko industrijsko proizvodnjo kažejo, da je industrijska proizvodnja v Mariboru precej pod republiškim povprečjem. Rahlemu oživljanju proizvodnje v letu 1993 sledi ponoven padec. Medtem je proizvodnja v Sloveniji prvič presegla indeks 100, rast se je nadaljevala, čeprav z nižjo rastjo. Rezultati kažejo, da Maribor doživlja velike pretrese v industriji.
V 80. letih je bila najpomembnejša dejavnost proizvodnja vozil, ki je l. 1987 prispevala 31,7 % prihodka mariborske industrije. Zaradi izgube trga je njen delež strmo padal. Ta padec je v absolutnem znesku še veliko večji, saj se je industrijska proizvodnja v Mariboru v tem obdobju zmanjšala za 42 %. Druga najpomembnejša dejavnost je bila proizvodnja tekstilne preje in tkanin, ki je bila v prihodkih udeležena s približno. 10%.
Pomanjkanje propulzivne industrije je imelo za posledico nagel padec industrijske proizvodnje. Proces notranjega prestrukturiranje proizvodnje mariborskega gospodarstva poteka zelo počasi. Tradicionalne industrijske dejavnosti kot so proizvodnja prometnih sredstev, tekstila, elektro naprav in strojegradnje so doživele velik padec proizvodnje. Te industrijske dejavnosti so imele svoj trg v bivšem jugoslovanskem prostoru in so bile »privilegirane« tako na državnem kot lokalnem nivoju. Delež vlaganj v raziskave in razvoj in v posodabljanje proizvodnje ni bil zadosten. Probleme so poskušali reševati v proizvodnji prometnih sredstev s subvencijami.
Eden izmed razlogov, da povezave s tujim kapitalom niso bile uspešne je bil tudi državni intervencioni-zem. Dotacije za ohranjanje delovnih mest so imele ravno nasprotni učinek od pričakovanega. Državne subvencije so se porabile za sanacijo likvidnosti in za plače zaposlenih. Podjetja so zapadla v tako imenovani efekt »glej in čakaj«.
Gibanje števila zaposlenih v industriji se je po letu 1994 umirilo. V veliki krizi je še vedno tekstilna dejavnost, kar se odraža v konstantnem padcu zaposlenih.
Stevilo brezposelnih je naglo naraslo po letu 1989, ko je prišlo do hitrega nazadovanja mariborske industrije. Delež brezposelnih se giblje med 22 % do 23,9 %, medtem ko je republiško povprečje okoli 14 %. Ti podatki kažejo na krizo mariborskega gospodarstva, še posebej industrije. Delež dolgotrajno brezposelnih je 68,1 %, kar je za 10 % nad republiškim povprečjem.
Mesto in Podravska regija se zavedata pomena vzpostavitve dejavnikov, ki bi privabili investitorje in tuji kapital. Razvoj znanstvenoraziskovalne dejavnosti, prometa, turizma in trgovinske dejavnosti predstavljajo ključne panoge regionalnega razvoja mariborske regije. Oblikovanje ekonomsko poslovnih con, odpiranje novih delovnih mest in zaposlovanje ustrezne delovne sile v terciarnih dejavnostih predstavlja pot iz gospodarske krize. Izgradnja infrastrukturne mreže, ki bo priključena na razvojne osi evropskega prostora in zavedanje o nujnosti regionalnega povezovanja bo omogočilo oblikovanje ekonomsko -funkcijske regije v okviru evropskega prostora.
7. Sklep
Razvoj znanosti in tehnološki napredek sta povzročila strukturne spremembe v gospodarstvu, zlasti dein-dustrializacijo in terciarizacijo gospodarstva ter oblikovanja svetovnega trga. Devetdeseta leta 20. stol. pomenijo propad socialističnega družbenega reda in prehajanje gospodarskega sistema držav v tranziciji v tržno gospodarstvo.
Tranzicijski proces je najintenzivneje zajel postsocialistične države celotnega vzhodnega evropskega bloka in ga doživlja tudi Slovenija. Države v tranziciji se spopadajo s problemi oblikovanja lastnega nacionalnega gospodarstva in vključitve na svetovni trg ter s problemi prestrukturiranja starih industrijskih panog in saniranja depresivnih industrijskih con.
Oblikovanje skupnega svetovnega gospodarstva narekuje tudi integriranje evropskega trga. Razlike v razvitosti posameznih nacionalnih ekonomij terjajo zlasti v postsocialističnih državah razvoj in prilagajanje tržnemu gospodarstvu in sposobnost konkurenčnega nastopa na svetovnem trgu. Gospodarsko in prostorsko integriranje v Evropo sta v Sloveniji mišljena kot procesa, ki pomenita razvojno moč in terjata politično angažiranost ter izražen nacionalni interes.
Pomen procesov prestrukturiranja slovenske industrije je v prilagajanju razmeram na svetovnem trgu. Ekonomski cilj je dolgoročna rast produktivnosti, ki bi naj omogočala visoki in rastoči življenjski standard prebivalstvu ter zagotavljala enakomerni razvoj posameznih regij. Uspešnost tega cilja je odvisna predvsem od možnosti industrijskega razvoja, ki je tesno povezan z razvojem ostalih gospodarskih panog.
Industrijska dejavnost tudi v postindustrijski dobi ostaja ključna gospodarska panoga, vendar samo, če je uspešno izvedla prestrukturiranje klasične industrije in razvila visoko tehnološko dejavnost z visoko dodano vrednostjo. Notranje prestrukturiranje industrije in proces terciarizacije sta povzročila spremembe v strukturi zaposlenih, ki predstavlja indikator pomena rasti služnostnih dejavnosti napram podjetjem, kjer se število zaposlenih v proizvodnji zmanjšuje. Rast proizvodnjo orientiranega servisnega sektorja je proces, ki podpira terciarizacijo in je prisoten v vseh gospodarskih dejavnostih. Čeprav so se storitvene dejavnosti že profilirale, so še vedno predvsem povezane s proizvodnjo, pri čemer delež storitev v vrednosti produkta narašča. Uspešno prestrukturiranje industrije in ekološka proizvodna usmerjenost zagotavljata razvojne možnosti gospodarstva.
Tudi v slovenskem gospodarstvu se zavedajo, da je za uspešno prestrukturiranje industrije potrebno vzpodbuditi sinergijo med industrijo in znanostjo. Vključitev na svetovni trg bo uspešna le z rastjo podjetij s tehnološko zahtevnejšimi produkti in postopki v proizvodnih in storitvenih dejavnostih. Vlaganje v raziskave in razvoj so primarni pogoj za gospodarski razvoj regij. Z zaposlovanjem visoko kvalificirane delovne sile, ki bo sposobna inovativnega ustvarjanja, agresivnega nastopa na konkurenčnem trgu in, ki bo s permanentnim usposabljanjem kos zahtevam svetovnega trga bo zagotovljen uspešni ekonomski razvoj.
Nacionalni interes razvitih držav je v vzpodbujanju regionalnega razvoja usmerjenega v ekonomsko preobrazbo gospodarstva in sanacijo degradiranih območij, ki so zaradi ekonomske krize zapadle v stagnacijo. Povezovanje Slovenije z Evropsko unijo pomeni enega bistvenih procesov, ki vpliva na ekonomsko, socialno in kulturno spremembo prostora in osnovo njenega nadaljnjega družbenega razvoja Slovenije.