slovenian economic mirror No. 2, Vol. XXVII, 2021 Slovenian Economic Mirror (Ekonomsko ogledalo) No. 2 / Vol. XXVII / 2021 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorciceva 27 Responsible Person: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Director Editor: Urška Brodar Authors: Urška Brodar; Lejla Fajic; Marjan Hafner, MSc; Matevž Hribernik, MSc; Katarina Ivas, MSc; Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršic; Janez Kušar, MSc; Andrej Kuštrin, PhD; Lenart Milan Lah, MSc; Jože Markic, PhD; Tina Nenadic, MSc; Mitja Perko, MSc; Jure Povšnar; Denis Rogan, MSc; Dragica Šuc, MSc; Ana Vidrih, MSc Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc; Lejla Fajic; Marta Gregorcic, PhD; Alenka Kajzer, PhD; Rotija Kmet Zupancic, MSc; Janez Kušar, MSc Translated by: Marija Kavcic Technical editing and layout: Bibijana Cirman Naglic Print: Eurograf d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies First edition Ljubljana, February 2021 ISSN 1318-3826 (print) ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf) The publication is available free of charge. © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight ........................................................................................................................................... 3 Current economic trends ....................................................................................................................... 7 International environment .......................................................................................................................9 Economic developments in Slovenia ................................................................................................. 10 Labour market ............................................................................................................................................ 15 Prices .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 Financial markets ....................................................................................................................................... 17 Balance of payments ................................................................................................................................ 18 Public finance ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Statistical appendix ...............................................................................................................................21 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 11th February 2021. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight With the tightening of containment measures during the second wave of the epidemic, economic activity in the euro area contracted again in the last quarter of 2020, albeit significantly less than during the first wave. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area GDP dropped by 0.7% in the last quarter of 2020, which is considerably less than during the first wave of the epidemic (-3.7% in the first quarter; -11.7% in the second). The smaller decline was a consequence of the partial adjustment of businesses and consumers to the new situation. Also, the containment measures taken in the second wave are mainly focused on service activities and are less disruptive to manufacturing and construction. Current economic indicators also indicate similar dynamics of euro area economic activity at the beginning of this year. In the continuation of the year, activity should start strengthening gradually, assuming a gradual relaxation of containment measures and lower uncertainty due to wider accessibility of effective vaccines. Monetary and fiscal policy measures will also make a significant contribution to growth. After last year’s 6.8% decline (Eurostat’s flash estimate), euro area GDP is expected to increase by 3.8% this year according to the European Commission’s February forecast; the same growth is expected in 2022. Uncertainty remains high, however. The greatest risk to the realisation of the forecast remains associated with the course of the epidemic, i.e. the accessibility and effectiveness of vaccines and the related relaxation of measures. Amid stringent containment measures in the middle of the last quarter of 2020, turnover in trade and some service activities fell considerably in Slovenia. As during the first wave of the epidemic, the most affected sector was accommodation and food service activities, where, with the closure of hotels and restaurants, turnover more than halved. Household expenditure on personal, entertainment, sports and other services also declined. As a result of the closure of non-essential shops, motor vehicle and retail sales fell sharply. In retail trade, turnover fell the most for shops selling clothing and footwear and furniture and household equipment. With the partial and temporary opening, sales increased in some segments in December, before falling again with the re-closure in January, according to data on fiscal verification of invoices. With the tightening of measures to contain the second wave of the epidemic, household consumption thus fell sharply again, while household savings increased further amid relatively stable disposable income. Amid modest borrowing, households again repaid a high amount of consumer loans. Owing to lower demand, the epidemic and the measures to contain its spread have also strongly affected the movement of some prices of goods and services. The year-on-year fall in consumer prices in January was otherwise somewhat smaller, to the greatest extent due to the relatively modest seasonal decline in clothing and footwear prices. The lower prices were still largely due to low prices of oil products, but their decline gradually decreased. Growth in food and services prices remained low, which is related to increased supply due to the good harvest, modest activity in accommodation and food service activities, and the complete closure of some other activities. Export-oriented activities and construction were not noticeably affected during the second wave of the epidemic. Goods exports to EU countries, to which Slovenia exports around three-quarters of all goods, and manufacturing output recovered to pre-crisis levels in the last quarter of the year. Construction activity also strengthened strongly, particularly on account of increased residential construction. Confidence indicators point to a continuation of favourable movements at the beginning of this year, which is also corroborated by data on electricity consumption (the largest consumer is industrial companies) and traffic volume on Slovenia motorways, both of which were only slightly lower year on year in January. With intervention measures still in place, the increase in unemployment in December and January did not deviate significantly from seasonal increases in previous years, while at the beginning of February a decline was already observed. At the end of January, 91,499 persons were unemployed, 4.8% more than at the end of December and 14.6% more than in the same period last year. Wage statistics have also been significantly affected by intervention measures since the spring. In the private sector, year-on-year wage growth has slowed noticeably since April, when it rose significantly due to the impact of the methodology for the collection of earnings statistics with the placement of a large number of people on temporary layoff. In the public sector, it grew again slightly year on year with the declaration of the second wave of the epidemic and the renewed payment of crisis allowances in November. The deficit of the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis increased markedly in 2020 due to the deterioration in economic conditions and measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. It amounted to EUR 3.5 billion. The bulk of the deficit arose from increased expenditure, which was mostly due to the temporary measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. In addition to this expenditure, which strengthened particularly subsidies, transfers to individuals and households, and funds for wages, part of the expenditure growth is also permanent in nature (for example due to the agreement on public sector wages from December 2018). The deficit was otherwise lower than planned, particularly the part arising from the state budget, which is a consequence of lower expenditure for financing the measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic with regard to the generated reserves. Source: ESS. Note: Pink columns show daily (unofficial) data; grey columns show official data at the end of the month. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Due to the impact of the epidemic and measures to Annual deflation was still mainly due to lower energy contain the consequences of the crisis, the general prices. government deficit increased substantially in 2020. Food Fuels and energy General government balance Primary balance Services Other 2,000 TOTAL 1,000 0 -2,000 PMI value for euro area Seasonally adjusted indicator value 22 18 14 10 In the euro area, in the last quarter of the year, the second wave of the epidemic and the measures to contain its spread affected particularly service activities; economic indicators indicate similar dynamics of activity at the beginning of this year. Composite index Manufacturing Services 62 58 26 30 34 74,000 -40 -50 -60 Source: Markit. Note: A reading above 50 signals an expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates a contraction. Registered unemployment declined somewhat at the The second wave of the epidemic had no noticeable beginning of February, after a seasonal increase in impact on confidence and activity in manufacturing and December and January. construction. 94,000 38 42 Jan 11Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 12 Jan 13 Retail trade Service activities Construction Consumers Economic sentiment Manufacturing Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 21 In EUR million Number of registered unemployed -1,000 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100 40 20 0 60 120 100 80 140 200 180 160 220 240 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. * June's figure is IMAD . estimate, as it was not sufficiently reliable for publication. Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Also in Slovenia, particularly turnover in some service activities shrank during the second wave due to the closure of non-essential shops and services. Retail sale of non-food products Sale of motor vehicles Accommodation and food service activities Retail sale of food products Retail sale of automotive fuels Travel agencies* 76,000 78,000 80,000 82,000 84,000 86,000 88,000 90,000 92,000 6.42 52264. -3543.3 31/01/2020 29/02/2020 31/03/202030/04/202031/05/202030/06/2020 31/07/202031/08/202030/09/2020 31/10/202030/11/202003/12/202007/12/2020 11/12/2020 16/12/202021/12/202024/12/202031/12/202005/01/2021 11/01/202115/01/202120/01/202125/01/2021 28/01/202131/01/202104/02/2021 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 -4,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -3,000 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. current economic trends The international environment Figure 1: Quarterly GDP change in Slovenia’s main trading partners Q4 20 Euro area economic activity contracted again in the Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Quarterly seasonally adjusted growth, in % 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 last quarter, albeit significantly less than during the first wave of the epidemic. After a strong rebound in the third quarter, economic activity declined again in the last quarter of 2020 due to the resurgence of the epidemic and the tightening of containment measures. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, GDP fell 0.7% quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted) and 5.1% year on year (seasonally adjusted). Among Slovenia’s main trading partners, in the last quarter of 2020 economic activity contracted the most in Austria (-4.3%) and the least in Germany (0.1%). The smaller decline in activity than during the first wave of the epidemic was a consequence EA Germany Italy Austria France of the adjustment of businesses and consumers to the new situation. In addition, the containment measures during the second wave are mainly focused on service Source: Eurostat. activities and are less disruptive to manufacturing and construction. Current economic indicators indicate a continuation of similar dynamics of economic activity in the euro area at the beginning of this year. The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) point to further growth in activity in manufacturing and a further fall in the service sector, although this is likely to be considerably smaller than during the first wave. Figure 2: IMF forecast of economic growth and world trade for 2021 and 2022 2020 Forecast for 2021 Forecast for 2022 Forecast October 2020 After contracting sharply in 2020, euro area economic 10 activity will rebound in 2021 according to the 8 forecasts of international institutions. According to 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Worldgrowth China USA EA* World trade Real GDP growth, in % Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area GDP declined by 6.8% last year, somewhat less than expected by international institutions in their latest forecasts (for example IMF: -7.2%). Assuming a gradual relaxation of containment measures and a decline in uncertainty due to wider accessibility of effective vaccines, economic activity will start picking up gradually in 2021. With the continuation of substantial monetary and fiscal policy support, euro area GDP is projected to increase by 4.2% and 3.6% respectively according to the IMF and EC forecasts. Similar growth is also expected for 2022. Uncertainty Source: IMF WEO Update, January 2021; IMF WEO, October 2020; * The decline in GDP in the euro area in 2020 is a preliminary estimate by Eurostat. Table 1: Brent Crude prices, USD/EUR exchange rate and EURIBOR remains elevated, however. A faster improvement in epidemiological conditions and widespread use of an effective vaccine or medicine could also lead to stronger-than-expected economic growth, while in the event of further large-scale closures of the economy due to a continued worsening of epidemiological conditions, the recovery of the euro area could be weaker than predicted in the central forecast. average change, in %* 2020 XII 20 I 21 I 21/XII 20 I 21/I 20 Brent USD, per barrel 41.83 49.99 54.77 9.6 -13.9 Brent EUR, per barrel 36.57 41.80 45.01 9.6 -21.5 USD/EUR 1.142 1.217 1.217 0.0 9.6 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.427 -0.538 -0.547 -0.01 -0.16 Source: EIA, ECB, EMMI Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Current economic trends Figure 3: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Mar 20 Mar 20 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 4: Electricity consumption Merchandise exports Ind. prod. in manufacturing The second wave of the epidemic had a stronger Value of construction output Turnover in trade negative impact particularly on some service Turnover in services (nom.) activities, while export-oriented activities recorded further growth. The closure of non-essential shops and certain services in October and November led inevitably to a decline in sales. As during the first wave in the spring, the fall was sharpest in accommodation and food service activities. With the partial and temporary opening, sales in some segments of trade and services increased in December before falling again with the re-closure in January, according to data on the fiscal verification of invoices. Confidence and activity in construction and manufacturing were not noticeably affected by the second Source: ENTSO-E and Bruegel.org. Notes: Only consumption on working days (between 8.00 and18.00) is considered. The percentages are adjusted for temperature differences. Figure 5: Traffic of electronically tolled vehicles on Slovenian motorways Tolled vehicles Domestic Foreign In January, freight traffic on Slovenian motorways1 was somewhat lower than a year earlier. It was down 8% year on year, similarly for domestic and foreign vehicles. The larger lag in January than in a few previous months reflected the volume of traffic at the beginning of the month, which was significantly lower due to a less favourable distribution of public holidays2 and heavy snowfall in some neighbouring countries. Moreover, this January also had one working day less. We estimate that the relatively smaller year-on-year decline in freight traffic during the second wave of the epidemic is related to the recovery of industrial production. The volume of freight traffic is still being negatively affected by lower levels of Jan 05 Austria France Croatia The year-on-year fall in weekly electricity Italy Germany Slovenia consumption in the second wave of the epidemic remained significantly smaller than in the spring. In Apr 20Jan 06Jan 07Jan 08 Apr 20 May 20May 20 Jun 20 Jan 09Jan 10Jan 11 Jun 20 Jul 20Jul 20Jan 12Aug 20Aug 20Sep 20Sep 20 Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15 Oct 20Oct 20Nov 20Nov 20 Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18 Dec 20 Dec 20Jan 19Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 21 was roughly the same as last year, while in France and Croatia it was 3% and 4% higher respectively. stringent containment measures. In Italy, consumption on average year on year (compared with around 15% in the second quarter of 2020). The smaller decline than in the spring months was mostly due to a smaller fall in industrial consumption, which accounts for the largest share of total electricity consumption. Among our main trading partners, the year-on-year fall in consumption was largest in Austria (8%) and Germany (4%), owing to their January, weekly electricity consumption was 3% lower wave of the epidemic. This is also indicated by electricity consumption and the volume of freight transport on Slovenian motorways, which were both only slightly below last year’s levels in January. Construction activity strengthened significantly in November, particularly due to increased residential construction. Manufacturing output increased further, as did exports to the EU. Souce: Internal reports obtained from DARS; calculations by IMAD. transshipment of goods in the Port of Koper. 1 Measured in kilometres driven. 2 In Austria, Italy and Croatia, Epiphany is a public holiday. This year it fell in the middle of the week, which is less favourable from the point of view of road freight transport (in 2020 it fell on a Monday, which meant an extension of the weekend). Figure 6: Fiscal verification of invoices Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Jan 09 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. improved somewhat further, pointing to a continuation of export recovery at the beginning of this year. 3 Detailed data by sections of SITC are available until November 2020. Figure 8: Trade in services – nominal Jan 10Jan 10 Source: FURS Financial Administration of the Republic of Slovenia; calculations by IMAD. Figure 7: Trade in goods – real Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Jan 11 Exports of services Imports of services External trade in services remained significantly lower year on year in November.4 After several months of recovery, exports of services fell again in November Exports to the EU Imports from the EU The recovery of goods exports continued in the last quarter of 2020, while the recovery of imports Jan 11Jan 12 Jan 12Jan 13Jan 13Jan 14Jan 14Jan 15Jan 15Jan 16Jan 16Jan 17Jan 17Jan 18Jan 18 Dec 20 Jan 20 Jan 20 Jan 21 and were around a quarter lower year on year; imports also remained significantly lower than a year earlier (-17%). Measures to contain the epidemic, particularly restrictions for crossing the state borders and the closing of hotels and restaurants, significantly affected tourism. Spending by foreign tourists, same-day visitors and transit passengers in Slovenia and Slovenian tourists’ spending abroad were more than 90% lower year on year. On the other hand, some other more important service activities recorded more favourable movements than measures. Imports from EU countries thus fell by 11.7% in the year as a whole. In January, export expectations came to a halt. Export activity was not significantly affected by the resurgence of the epidemic and the adoption of containment measures in the last quarter. After a pronounced decline in the spring, exports to EU countries recovered to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2020. A stronger recovery was recorded for most main product groups, particularly goods for intermediate consumption.3 Exports were 7.7% lower on average in 2020. In the last quarter, the recovery of imports came to a halt, which was mainly related to a fall in private consumption in Slovenia due to the containment to a lower number of working days and their distribution between the holidays. According to data on the fiscal verification of invoices, the year-on-year fall in turnover increased in January. With the temporary opening of some shops and activities, it decreased before the Christmas holidays and then rose markedly again around the turn of the year. The fall in turnover remained largest in accommodation and travel agency activities. In January, the year-on-year fall swung again (decreasing in the middle of the month then increasing towards the end), mainly on account of the movement of turnover in all three main trade segments (the sale and repair of motor vehicles, wholesale trade, and retail trade). The larger year-on-year fall was also due during the first wave of the epidemic. Particularly exports and imports of transport services increased. Exports of construction services were also higher. However, exports and imports of technical, trade-related services and administrative and support service activities fell further. In the first 11 months, the year-on-year decline in services trade mainly reflected the fall in tourism. Trade in transport services was also notably lower. 4 According to the balance of payments statistics. In % 2019 XII 20/XI 20 XII 20/XII 19 I-XII 20/I-XII 19 Merchandise exports, real1 9.3 -0.93 8.4 -0.8 - to the EU 4.3 0.33 7.7 -7.7 Merchandise imports, real1 11.7 -9.13 3.9 -2.7 - from the EU 4.1 -4.23 -0.6 -11.7 Industrial production, real 3.1 -0.63 -0.9 -6.2 - manufacturing 3.5 -0.23 -0.7 -6.0 In % 2019 XI 20/X 20 XI 20/XI 19 I-XI 20/I-XI 19 Services exports, nominal2 7.0 -4.73 -25.94 -20.84 Services imports, nominal2 4.6 0.63 -16.94 -17.2 Construction -value of construction put in place, real 3.3 12.23 18.4 0.3 Distributive trades - real turnover 4.3 -2.53 -9.94 -8.04 Market services (without trade) - nominal turnover 5.4 1.03 -8.0 -11.04 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 External trade statistics, deflated by IMAD, 2 balance of payments statistics, 3 seasonally adjusted, 4 working-day adjusted data. Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing Manufacturing, total High-technology industries With a further increase in the last quarter of 2020, Medium-high-tech. ind. Medium-low-tech. ind. manufacturing production recovered to pre-crisis Low-technology industries levels. In the last quarter, the recovery of production otherwise came to a halt in high-technology industries (which were the least affected during the first wave of the epidemic) and low-technology industries, while strengthening further in medium-technology industries. The latter thus exceeded their levels from the same period of 2019. Despite a sharp increase in the second half of the year, in 2020 production in medium-high and medium-low industries was down year on year in all sectors, particularly in the manufacture of motor vehicles and the metal industry. Lower production was also recorded Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. remained the only industries that increased production year on year in 2020 (despite more modest year-on-year results of the pharmaceutical sector in the second half of the year). Figure 10: Activity in construction Jan 10 Seasonally adjusted data Construction activity strengthened significantly in 3-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted November. The value of construction output increased Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 20 the last few months of last year, construction activity was significantly lower compared with 2018 and 2019 in non­residential buildings, slightly higher in civil-engineering works and considerably higher in residential buildings (where data for the last months are less reliable). Short-term prospects remain favourable for civil-engineering works and residential buildings; for non­residential construction, on the other hand, they look worse. The stock of contracts in the construction of civil-engineering works strengthened by 15% year on year, by 12.2% and was 18.4% higher than a year before. In in low-technology industries, with the exception of the wood-processing industry. High-technology industries Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. half of 2020, increased again in the summer and autumn. while in the construction of non-residential buildings, it declined by 28%. The number of issued permits for the construction of new flats, which had declined in the first Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Total Sale of motor vehicles Turnover in trade declined further in November Wholesale trade Retail trade with the closure of some non-essential shops and other containment measures; with a partial opening, it improved in some segments in December. In November, turnover dropped in all three main segments, the most in the sale of motor vehicles, where it had also fluctuated the most in previous months. Turnover in retail trade also decreased significantly. In this segment, turnover in the sale of non-food products (particularly in the sale of clothing and footwear and the sale of furniture and household equipment) dropped the most. The already high sales via mail order or the internet strengthened further. With a temporary opening of some shops, the further decline in non-food product sales was interrupted in December, according to preliminary data. . Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 12: Turnover in market services Total * After a smaller decline in the previous month, turnover Transportation and storage (H) in market services strengthened in most services in Information and communication activities (J) November. Despite a further contraction of turnover in Professional and technical activities (M) Administrative and support service activities (N) travel agencies, the strongest monthly growth in turnover Seasonally adjusted nominal index 2010=100 Accommodation and food service activities (I) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 continued in administrative and support service activities, mostly due to further growth in rental and leasing activities and office administrative and support activities. Turnover growth accelerated in professional and technical activities (especially in architectural and engineering services) and transportation (particularly in road freight transport). In information and communication activities, turnover fell somewhat again despite rising exports of computer services. In accommodation and food service activities, it more than halved with the closure of hotels and restaurants in November. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * including real estate. Figure 13: Selected indicators of household consumption Household consumption After the recovery in the third quarter, household Real turnover in the sale of non-food products consumption dropped strongly in the last, mainly as a Real turnover in the sale of food products consequence of the renewed closure of non-essential Sale of passenger cars to natural persons Household saving rate (right axis) shops and services. This was reflected in a sharp fall in 20 18 16 14 12 10 4-quarter moving averages, in % passenger car sales and sales of most other non-food products in traditional shops. Sales via mail order and the internet, which accounts for around a fifth of total non­ food product sales, strengthened in November and were more than half higher year on year in the first 11 months. With the closure of hotels and restaurants, the number of domestic tourist overnight stays plunged. Household expenditure on personal, entertainment, sports and other services decreased as well. Owing to the limitations 8 on consumption and the postponement of non-essential purchases and amid relatively stable disposable income, the savings rate remained high at the end of the year, Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. which is also corroborated by data on stronger volume of household deposits at the end of the year. Figure 14: Road freight transport Jan 11 Jan 12 Economic sentiment Manufacturing Economic sentiment improved in January for the Retail trade Service activities second consecutive month, after deteriorating since Construction Consumers Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 15: Economic sentiment Q1 10 Road The volume of road freight transport increased Road – cross-trade significantly in the third quarter of 2020 after the Road - loaded, unloaded and national removal of containment measures; fluctuations in Railway rail transport, which has been declining for quite a while, were insignificant. Slovenian hauliers carry out a large part of their journeys abroad. As a result of strict containment measures in the majority of EU countries in the first half of last year, road transport abroad declined significantly. With the relaxation of measures, it rose again and was only 5% lower year on year in the third quarter. The volume of road transport at least partially connected to the Slovenian territory (exports, imports and national transport combined) decreased less during Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. above the levels from the first wave of the epidemic. Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Jan 17 Q1 17 Jan 18 Q1 18 Jan 19 Q1 19 Jan 20 Q1 20 Jan 21 due to the temporary re-opening of shops, but – like the confidence indicators in other activities – it remained the beginning of the second wave of the epidemic. Confidence in manufacturing improved further and was the highest in two years. Confidence in services also improved noticeably for the second month in a row (particularly due to expected demand), but it remained considerably lower than a year earlier. A further strengthening of confidence was also recorded among consumers and in construction, which, along with manufacturing, remains one of the less affected sectors. The confidence indicator in retail trade deteriorated considerably in January, after December’s improvement the first wave of the epidemic, but it also recovered more slowly than transport abroad and was 8% lower in the third quarter than in the same period of 2019. The containment measures had a smaller impact on freight transport by rail, but this had already been declining for several quarters before the epidemic (in the third quarter, it was down 13% year on year). Labour market Figure 16: Number of employed persons and number of registered unemployed persons Employed according to SRE (left axis) In January, moderate growth in the number of Registered unemployed (right axis) registered unemployed persons continued. At the end of January, 91,499 persons were unemployed, 4.8% more than at the end of December and 14.6% more than a year earlier. Growth in the number of unemployed persons, which, with intervention measures still in place, did not deviate significantly from seasonal increases at the end or the beginning of previous years (deriving largely from the expiry of fixed-term employment contracts), came to a halt towards the end of January. The number of employed persons was down 1.6% year on year in November, which is similar to previous months. Activities with the largest declines remained accommodation and food service Jan 06 Jan 07Jan 08Jan 09Jan 10 Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13 Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17 Jan 18Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 activities (12.2%) and administrative and support service activities (10.3%). Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 17: Average gross wage per employee Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends Since the spring months, the year-on-year growth of the average gross wage (6.9% in November) has been significantly affected by the payment of crisis allowances and the inclusion of employed persons in intervention job retention schemes. In the private sector, growth has slowed noticeably since April, when it increased significantly due to the impact of the methodology for the collection of earnings statistics with the placement of a large number of people on temporary layoff. In the public sector, wage growth slowed in the middle of the year after the discontinuation of allowances (the extraordinary payment of allowances for hazardous working conditions and additional workloads and the payment of the bonus for work in crisis conditions in accordance with the collective agreement). Since mid-October, when the second wave of the epidemic was declared, it had strengthened somewhat due to the renewed payment of allowances in November, albeit somewhat less than during the first wave. Wage rises in social work and health stood out in particular (due to the payment of allowances). The payments of Christmas bonuses in the private sector, which otherwise had a significant impact on November’s increase in the average wage, were similar to November 2019. Change, in % 2019 XI 20/X 20 XI 20/XI 19 I-XI 20/I-XI 19 Persons in formal employment2 2.5 -0.11 -1.3 -0.5 Average nominal gross wage 4.3 0.91 6.8 5.5 private sector 3.9 0.41 3.5 4.4 public sector 5.4 7.01 12.5 7.1 of which general government 6.5 7.81 16.3 9.1 of which public corporations 2.7 0.81 2.9 1.8 2019 XI 19 X 20 XI 20 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 7.7 7.71 8.9 8.9 Change, in % 2020 I 21/XII 20 I 21/I 20 Registered unemployed 14.6 4.81 14.6 Sources: ESS, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers (SRDAP). Prices Figure 18: Consumer prices Source: SURS, Eurostat. Figure 19: Slovenian industrial producer prices Slovenia Euro area The year-on-year fall in consumer prices decreased in January.5 This was mainly due to the relatively modest seasonal decline in prices of clothing and footwear. This was at 6.8% at the monthly level and around half smaller than in previous years, according to our estimates, mainly owing to a more pronounced decline in prices of clothing and footwear in previous months, when shops selling such goods were closed and retailers tried to redirect consumers to online purchases. Deflation was, however, still largely due to low oil product prices, but their year-on-year fall is gradually decreasing. Growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices, which had already slowed considerably at the end of the year, recorded Source: SURS. Table 4: Consumer price growth, in % XII 19/XII 18 I 20-XII 20/ I19-XII 19 XII 20/XI 20 XII 20/XII 19 Total 1.8 -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 Food 3.5 3.7 -0.7 1.1 Fuels and energy 1.2 -9.7 1.6 -9.9 Services 2.9 1.6 -0.8 0.2 Other1 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 Core inflation - excluding food and energy 1.6 0.7 -0.5 -0.1 Core inflation - trimmed mean2 1.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.4 Jan 11Jan 10Jan 12Jan 11 Domestic market Foreign market Slovenian industrial producer prices were 0.2% lower year on year in December. Due to a deeper fall in prices of intermediate goods, the year-on-year decline in Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 13Jan 14 Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17Jan 17Jan 18Jan 18Jan 19 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 20 Jan 21 two months of the year. months. Growth in durable consumer goods prices remained at around 1%. Prices of investment goods were also somewhat higher. A somewhat stronger year-on-year decline was again recorded for Slovenian producer prices in countries outside the euro area. Price growth on the domestic market remained close to 1% at the end of the year. Energy prices again recorded the highest year-on-year growth, this stabilising at around 4% in the last Slovenian producer prices on foreign markets at the end of the year was even more pronounced than in previous only minimal year-on-year growth in January. Reflecting a pronounced year-on-year fall in prices of package holidays, growth in prices of services also remained low. The difference between inflation in Slovenia and the EU deepened significantly in January, mostly due to the end of the temporary reduction of VAT rates in Germany. 5 Due to the additional containment measures, SURS collected retail prices of non-food goods and services to a greater extent by phone and through the websites of providers. Prices that could not be collected are estimated on the basis of past price changes (or price changes within the aggregate or of higher aggregates) and represent 8.6% of the consumer price index. Weights have also been changed this time, as they are at the beginning of each year. They are now based on the average expenditure from the Household Budget Survey for 2018 recalculated to December 2020 prices. Source: SURS. Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2 An approach that excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. Financial markets Figure 20: Loans to domestic non-banking sectors Consumer loans Lending for house purchase The year-on-year fall in the volume of loans to Enterprises and NFIs Total domestic non-banking sectors increased further at the end of the year. Having gradually declined since mid-2020, the volume of corporate and NFI loans was more than 2% lower year on year in December. The volume of household loans was only slightly higher year on year (by 0.2%). Growth in housing loans remained just above 4%. Total growth slowed somewhat further due to a significant year-on-year decline in the volume of consumer loans (by 7.4%). According to our estimate, the latter was a consequence not only of the adopted binding macroprudential measure at the end of 2019, but also of lower household spending due to containment Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20 Source: Bos. Table 5: Financial market indicators measures. As a consequence, growth in household deposits increased significantly – they were around a tenth higher year on year. The share of non-performing claims measured by arrears of more than 90 days remained at 1% in November. The share of non-performing claims according to the EBA definition,6 however, increased slightly, mainly due to relatively significant increases in the services sector, which was the most affected by measures to contain the epidemic (accommodation and food service activities and tourism), but bank exposure to these sectors is relatively low. 6 According to the EBA definition, non-performing claims include not only arrears of more than 90 days, but also claims that meet the “unlikely to pay” criterion. Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 19 31. XII 20 31. XII 20/30. XI 20 31. XII 20/31. XII 19 Loans total 23,168.1 22,859.4 -0.9 -1.3 Enterprises and NFI 10,538.1 10,305.6 -1.8 -2.2 Government 1,649.4 1,556.7 0.1 -5.6 Households 10,980.6 10,997.1 -0.1 0.2 Consumer credits 2,922.3 2,706.6 -1.1 -7.4 Lending for house purchase 6,587.2 6,862.1 0.3 4.2 Other lending 1,471.1 1,428.4 -0.2 -2.9 Bank deposits total 20,804.7 22,915.7 1.8 10.1 Overnight deposits 16,259.4 18,975.8 2.3 16.7 Term deposits 4,545.2 3,940.0 -0.8 -13.3 Government bank deposits, total 691.7 594.6 3.4 -14.0 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 6,792.9 8,054.3 3.2 18.6 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. Balance of payments Figure 21: Current account 12-month cumulatives, in EUR million 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 -1,000 -2,000 Jan 10Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19 Jan 20 Secondary income Primary income The current account surplus remained high; this Trade in goods Trade in services mostly reflected the movements in goods and services Current account trade. The year-on-year higher surplus, which amounted to EUR 3.2 billion in the 12 months to November (6.9% of estimated GDP), was, amid improved terms of trade, mainly due to a higher surplus in trade in goods. The surplus in services trade declined further, mostly due to a fall in the surplus in travel and transport services. The surplus in services with higher value added (telecommunications, computer and information services) and, amid rising re­exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products, the surplus in processing services (packaging, assembly and labelling) increased. The current account surplus also strengthened year on year as a result of net outflows of secondary income, which fell mainly as a consequence Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 6: Balance of payments of lower payments of taxes and contributions abroad and lower VAT- and GNI-based contributions to the EU budget. Net outflows of primary income were higher year on year owing to a higher net outflow of income on equity and debt. In addition, the net inflow of labour income was lower, as income of daily migrants working abroad declined more than income of foreign workers in Slovenia. I-XI 2020, in EUR million Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-XI 19 Current account 35,555.0 32,369.3 3,185.8 2,753.1 Goods 27,234.1 24,768.0 2,466.1 1,402.5 Services 6,160.4 4,305.7 1,854.6 2,575.4 Primary income 1,401.7 2,074.6 -672.9 -694.5 Secondary income 758.8 1,220.9 -462.1 -530.3 Capital account 1,194.1 1,306.3 -112.2 -47.9 Financial account 5,284.4 7,461.9 2,177.5 2,639.7 Direct investment 849.5 435.1 -414.4 -546.8 Portfolio investment 3,117.9 698.4 -2,419.5 404.9 Other investment 1,406.6 6,265.5 4,858.9 2,918.5 Net errors and omissions - -896.1 -896.1 -65.5 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts. the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows”means total expenditures; “balance”is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows”mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. Public finance Figure 22: Consolidated general government budgetary accounts General government balance (right axis) The deficit of the consolidated general government Revenue budgetary accounts7 totalled EUR 3.5 billion in Expenditure 8000 2020. Revenue declined by 3.6%, mainly due to lower 6000 4000 2000 0 -2000 12-month cummulative, in EUR m tax revenues amid the decline in economic activity. Their decline was also attributable to a decrease in tax burdens (income tax and excise duties), deferrals of tax liabilities, exemptions and reduced advance payments (especially of corporate income tax) made possible by intervention measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Amid wage growth, only the payments of social contributions were higher than in 2019. For people on temporary layoff and, during the first wave of the epidemic, also for those who worked, social contributions were financed from the state budget. Revenue from EU funds remained at the 2019 level. The bulk of the deficit -4000 Jan 11Jan 12Jan 13Jan 14Jan 15Jan 16Jan 17Jan 18Jan 19Jan 20 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Figure 23: Receipts from the EU budget arose from increased expenditure (by 16.4% year on year), for the most part due to temporary measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. In addition to this expenditure, which strengthened particularly subsidies, transfers to individuals and households, and funds for wages, part of expenditure growth is also permanent in nature (for example due to the agreement on public sector wages from December 2018). Investment was also somewhat higher year on year in 2020 due to a stronger increase at the end of the year. The deficit was otherwise lower than planned, particularly the part arising from the state budget, which is a consequence of lower expenditure for financing the measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic with regard to the generated reserves (EUR 2 billion compared with EUR 2.6 billion budgeted for this purpose). 7 The consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. Total receipts (January–December 2020) Expected reimbursements in the revised budget 2020 Total receipts (January–December 2019) Expected reimbursements in the revised budget 2019 Common Agricultural Policy Structural Funds Cohesion Fund Other In EUR m Source: MF. In 2020, Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive (at EUR 198.1 million). Last year, Slovenia paid EUR 526 million into the EU budget (99.9% of the amount planned in the revised budget for 2020) and received EUR 724.1 million from it (76.9% of planned revenue). The bulk of receipts were resources from structural funds (44.3% of all reimbursements to the state budget)8 and resources for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy (36%). The share of resources from the EU Cohesion Fund was significantly smaller, at 13%. In these, the realisation deviated the least from the amount envisaged in the revised budget, which was significantly reduced with regard to the adopted budget.9 According to SVRK data, 52% of funds available under the 2014–2020 financial perspective were paid by the end of 2020 (36% at the end of 2019) and 39% of available funds were reimbursed to the state budget (26% at the end of 2019).10 8 Two-thirds were resources from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). 9 In the revised budget for 2020, the expected realisation was reduced because of difficulties in the absorption from the Cohesion Fund. 10 Report on the Implementation of EU Cohesion Policy 2014–2020 for the period from January 2014 to the end of December 2020. Table 7: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-XII 2019 I-XII 2020 EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % REVENUES TOTAL 19,232.3 3.4 18,531.1 -3.6 Tax revenues1 10,157.8 5.0 9,185.5 -9.6 Personal income tax 2,591.5 5.9 2,487.5 -4.0 Corporate income tax 997.1 17.9 772.9 -22.5 Taxes on immovable property 235.3 3.5 235.8 0.2 Value added tax 3,871.5 3.1 3,528.0 -8.9 Excise duties 1,543.3 -1.1 1,314.4 -14.8 Social security contributions 7,021.3 7.2 7,275.1 3.6 Non-tax revenues 1,114.2 -17.5 1,121.2 0.6 Receipts from the EU budget 730.5 -8.3 730.4 0.0 Other 208.4 -5.6 218.8 5.0 Category I-XII 2019 I-XII 2020 EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % EUR m Y-o-y growth* in % EXPENDITURE TOTAL 18,968.8 5.0 22,074.4 16.4 Salaries* wages and other personnel expenditures2 4,470.5 7.3 4,962.4 11.0 Expenditure on goods and services 2,728.0 3.6 3,024.3 10.9 Interest payments 791.5 -8.8 778.0 -1.7 Reserves 238.4 -19.7 363.8 52.6 Transfers to individuals and households 7,323.9 5.7 8,251.5 12.7 Other current transfers 1,380.3 5.3 2,614.4 89.4 Investment expenditure 1,526.5 6.6 1,553.9 1.8 Payments to the EU budget 509.7 17.6 526.0 3.2 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE 263.5 -3,543.3 PRIMARY BALANCE 1,045.5 -2,777.9 Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance. Tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions. 2 Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. statistical appendix Main indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Winter Forecast 2020 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 2.8 2.2 3.2 4.8 4.4 3.2 -6.6 4.3 4.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 37,634 38,853 40,443 43,009 45,863 48,393 45,972 48,444 51,424 GDP per capita in EUR (current prices) 18,253 18,830 19,589 20,819 22,135 23,165 21,889 22,969 24,288 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,100 22,700 23,600 25,100 26,400 27,700 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 83 83 84 86 87 89 Rate of registered unemployment 13.1 12.3 11.2 9.5 8.2 7.7 8.7 9.2 8.4 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 9.7 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.4 4.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 2.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.7 -5.5 4.4 3.3 Inflation2, year average 0.2 -0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.0 0.6 1.9 Inflation2, end of the year 0.2 -0.4 0.5 1.7 1.4 1.8 -0.9 1.6 1.8 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.0 4.7 6.2 11.1 6.3 4.1 -12.1 7.6 8.6 Exports of goods 6.3 5.3 5.7 11.1 5.9 4.3 -8.9 6.7 5.7 Exports of services 5.0 2.4 8.0 11.2 7.5 3.3 -24.3 11.5 20.5 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 4.2 4.3 6.3 10.7 7.2 4.4 -13.9 9.3 9.5 Imports of goods 3.8 5.1 6.6 10.8 7.7 4.7 -12.9 9.4 8.2 Imports of services 6.1 0.1 4.7 10.6 4.8 3.3 -19.1 8.7 16.8 Current account balance3, in EUR million 1,918 1,483 1,932 2,674 2,680 2,723 3,370 3,115 3,018 As a per cent share relative to GDP 5.1 3.8 4.8 6.2 5.8 5.6 7.3 6.4 5.9 Gross external debt, in EUR million 46,792 46,170 44,325 43,231 42,148 43,796 49.133* As a per cent share relative to GDP 124.3 118.8 109.6 100.5 91.9 90.5 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.329 1.110 1.107 1.129 1.181 1.120 1.138 1.180 1.180 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.6 2.0 4.4 1.9 3.6 4.8 -9.6 4.1 4.6 As a % of GDP 55.0 54.0 54.0 52.6 52.1 52.4 49.9 49.6 49.7 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.2 2.3 2.4 0.4 3.0 1.7 2.4 2.4 1.6 As a % of GDP 18.9 18.8 19.0 18.4 18.2 18.4 20.7 20.4 19.8 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -0.1 -1.2 -3.6 10.2 9.6 5.8 -5.9 10.0 8.5 As a % of GDP 19.1 18.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 19.6 19.7 20.9 21.8 Source: SURS, Bank of Slovenia, Eurostat, IMAD recalculations and forecasts (winter forecast, December 2020). Notes: 1 Measured in purchasing power standard; Eurostat 15.12.2020 2 Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; * end November 2020. Production 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 12 1 2 3 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.7 5.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.5 4.4 4.1 1.6 -1.4 -17.4 -2.8 -1.2 3.1 3.7 0.8 B Mining and quarrying 2.5 -0.9 -3.4 6.5 0.5 8.5 -1.6 -10.9 -7.6 -13.7 -9.2 8.5 -15.3 -8.4 13.3 21.7 C Manufacturing 8.2 5.7 3.5 3.6 3.9 2.5 4.5 4.9 2.3 0.0 -17.8 -2.7 1.2 2.4 4.3 1.1 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 3.2 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 -5.8 0.2 3.6 -2.0 -4.7 -13.9 -13.1 -6.8 -18.0 10.1 -2.9 -6.8 CONSTRUCTION2, real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 17.7 19.8 3.3 28.8 14.9 23.1 8.6 -5.2 -3.8 3.3 -12.2 3.4 4.3 2.9 39.0 29.1 Buildings 27.6 16.8 3.5 28.5 2.4 18.7 5.9 -9.4 3.0 -0.9 -15.6 1.4 -7.5 -4.0 44.9 20.7 Civil engineering 14.4 21.1 3.2 29.4 20.5 24.1 10.0 -3.1 -6.2 5.2 -10.3 4.6 9.6 5.8 32.9 32.7 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total 8.2 8.2 5.4 8.8 8.2 7.4 5.3 6.3 2.9 -2.5 -21.7 -7.9 5.7 7.0 10.2 5.3 Transportation and storage 10.8 9.3 4.2 9.6 9.0 8.3 5.7 3.7 -0.7 -4.5 -20.7 -8.5 3.6 8.6 12.5 4.5 Information and communication activities 5.8 3.9 4.9 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.8 3.4 5.4 3.4 -6.2 2.2 4.3 8.2 3.8 2.6 Professional, scientific and technical activities 3.7 16.1 8.6 16.5 17.3 11.4 3.2 16.5 5.4 6.3 -10.2 0.6 14.2 8.0 13.4 12.6 Administrative and support service activities 12.2 7.3 4.7 7.9 2.0 2.5 4.6 6.8 4.3 -9.3 -38.5 -33.5 4.0 0.9 4.0 2.6 DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 8.5 8.1 4.3 8.3 11.7 10.1 5.2 4.5 -1.5 -4.1 -13.5 -3.0 9.9 10.4 14.3 6.3 Real turnover in retail trade 7.4 4.6 3.4 4.2 11.9 9.1 6.7 4.1 -4.7 -5.3 -11.9 -6.3 11.0 9.8 12.9 5.2 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 14.1 11.6 3.8 15.8 3.3 9.0 2.7 0.0 3.6 -13.7 -25.9 3.8 1.4 9.8 13.0 5.3 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 6.9 9.3 5.2 9.2 14.6 11.2 5.1 6.5 -0.7 0.6 -9.6 -2.9 11.9 11.2 15.9 7.4 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 12.3 10.5 0.5 11.8 14.4 3.1 4.4 -0.1 -5.6 -24.0 -82.9 -13.5 13.9 -2.1 10.7 0.9 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 5.0 -0.1 -2.5 -1.8 2.4 4.4 -3.8 -5.1 -4.1 -23.9 -56.3 172.1 3.8 -8.8 12.7 6.9 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 16.1 15.4 1.7 16.7 21.7 2.2 7.5 1.4 -6.3 -24.1 -92.1 -65.7 20.2 2.0 8.8 -2.7 Accommodation and food service activities 8.9 7.1 7.6 8.0 6.7 10.1 7.5 6.8 6.7 -15.4 -59.2 -12.8 7.0 5.0 15.8 10.0 AGRICULTURE BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Confidence indicator in manufacturing 10 8 0 4 7 4 0 0 -2 -3 -28 -4 6 7 2 2 in construction 13 22 11 20 20 16 13 9 6 7 -22 -5 16 16 17 16 in services 25 24 21 25 24 24 21 20 19 15 -34 -9 26 25 24 22 in retail trade 21 14 19 13 13 22 21 20 13 18 -18 11 13 27 14 25 consumer confidence indicator -9 -7 -10 -9 -9 -8 -8 -9 -14 -14 -35 -24 -8 -7 -8 -8 Source: SURS. Notes: 1 Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2019 2020 2021 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 11.9 4.2 0.0 7.5 0.6 5.2 -1.1 -2.9 -0.4 0.0 2.3 -13.5 -27.4 -12.8 0.0 -1.6 -5.3 -2.4 -7.1 -9.4 - - 14.7 4.7 1.4 7.5 2.9 1.8 -5.0 -3.8 -5.3 -1.7 0.6 -14.2 -22.3 -9.9 -3.2 -4.0 -8.1 -6.9 -10.5 -15.1 - - 6.7 5.4 -4.0 0.1 -10.4 10.7 3.9 0.9 6.4 2.9 0.5 -39.4 -59.8 -22.9 7.1 9.6 1.8 -0.7 -7.8 -19.6 - - 12.0 3.3 0.7 10.6 2.5 6.1 0.1 -3.6 1.4 0.3 4.2 -2.2 -17.7 -10.4 -0.5 -3.8 -5.2 0.2 -4.6 -1.4 - - Labour market 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 1 2 3 4 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 934.1 951.2 968.4 949.2 963.9 965.3 967.8 965.6 974.9 974.9 974.1 971.2 964.0 965.4 966.5 967.2 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 845.5 872.8 894.2 874.0 886.9 885.3 895.5 894.6 901.5 896.5 884.6 884.1 881.2 884.7 890.0 893.2 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 25.0 26.3 24.9 25.2 27.9 25.6 25.4 23.8 24.8 26.3 26.4 26.4 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.4 In industry, construction 269.1 280.9 291.7 283.0 287.1 287.5 292.7 292.7 294.0 291.2 288.0 286.0 285.5 287.0 290.0 292.0 - in manufacturing 193.9 202.6 207.9 203.2 206.4 207.4 208.5 207.6 208.4 206.2 202.6 200.1 206.9 207.3 207.8 208.5 - in construction 55.7 58.4 63.9 59.8 60.7 60.4 64.2 65.1 65.8 64.3 64.7 65.1 58.9 59.9 62.3 63.5 In services 551.3 565.7 577.6 565.8 571.9 572.2 577.5 578.0 582.8 579.0 570.2 571.7 570.2 572.2 574.4 575.8 - in public administration 48.8 49.0 49.0 49.1 49.0 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.2 49.0 49.2 49.4 48.7 48.8 48.8 48.6 -in education, health-services and social work 131.6 135.0 137.8 133.9 136.7 137.0 137.8 137.0 139.6 140.4 140.7 141.0 136.5 137.0 137.4 137.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 755.3 780.2 801.9 782.5 792.0 792.7 803.0 803.3 808.6 802.4 790.5 790.0 788.7 792.1 797.3 800.7 In enterprises and organisations 704.3 729.3 749.2 730.9 740.3 741.6 749.7 750.0 755.5 751.3 741.3 739.9 738.3 741.3 745.2 747.8 By those self-employed 51.0 50.9 52.7 51.5 51.7 51.1 53.2 53.4 53.2 51.1 49.2 50.1 50.4 50.7 52.1 53.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 90.2 92.6 92.3 91.5 94.9 92.6 92.6 91.2 92.9 94.1 94.0 94.1 92.5 92.6 92.7 92.5 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 88.6 78.5 74.2 75.3 77.0 80.0 72.2 71.1 73.4 78.4 89.5 87.1 82.8 80.8 76.5 74.0 Female 45.4 39.9 37.5 38.9 39.2 39.6 36.8 36.6 36.8 38.3 45.0 44.1 40.4 39.7 38.6 37.7 By age: 15 to 29 17.5 15.1 14.1 13.7 16.1 15.5 13.1 12.6 15.0 15.3 18.3 17.1 16.2 15.7 14.5 13.7 Aged over 50 34.3 31.5 29.7 30.5 29.9 31.5 29.6 29.0 28.7 30.6 31.9 31.3 32.3 31.7 30.6 30.0 Primary education or less 26.7 24.3 23.4 23.0 24.0 25.8 22.8 22.1 23.0 25.2 27.8 26.6 26.8 26.2 24.4 23.4 For more than 1 year 47.0 40.6 38.1 39.5 39.1 39.2 38.3 37.9 37.2 37.3 37.5 38.1 39.7 39.1 38.7 38.4 Those receiving benefits 21.5 20.0 19.3 18.3 18.5 23.5 17.4 17.9 18.5 24.5 29.8 25.6 24.8 23.8 21.8 17.3 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.5 8.3 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.3 7.5 7.4 7.5 8.0 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.6 Male 8.5 7.5 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.7 6.7 6.5 6.8 7.5 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.2 6.9 Female 10.6 9.2 8.5 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.6 10.2 10.0 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.6 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -14.6 -6.5 -0.3 -1.2 4.8 -0.7 -1.9 -0.3 1.8 0.9 3.8 -1.9 4.3 -2.0 -4.2 -2.6 New unemployed first-job seekers 12.3 11.4 0.8 2.1 5.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 Redundancies 70.0 65.1 5.4 14.9 17.4 6.5 4.1 4.8 6.2 7.5 9.5 6.0 10.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 68.6 61.5 4.7 12.7 12.4 6.2 4.8 3.9 3.9 5.5 4.8 6.5 5.3 5.6 7.6 5.9 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.3 21.6 1.8 5.5 5.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 FIXED TERM WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 18.0 24.0 32.9 24.2 27.0 29.6 32.3 34.2 35.7 35.6 34.9 37.7 28.6 29.5 30.6 31.6 As % of labour force 1.9 2.5 3.4 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Sources: SURS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1 In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2019 2020 2021 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 968.1 968.0 965.6 964.7 966.6 973.7 974.1 976.8 975.2 975.7 973.8 974.2 974.3 973.6 972.2 970.3 971.0 974.2 973.9 896.1 897.2 893.8 893.2 896.8 901.3 901.7 901.5 895.4 898.3 896.0 885.5 883.9 884.3 882.8 882.1 887.2 890.5 889.8 25.4 25.4 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.2 292.9 293.2 292.9 292.4 292.9 293.8 293.7 294.4 290.5 291.2 291.9 289.1 288.0 286.9 286.3 285.3 286.3 287.4 288.4 208.5 208.5 207.6 207.4 207.7 208.3 208.1 208.8 206.2 206.3 205.9 203.8 202.6 201.3 200.1 199.7 200.4 201.1 202.3 64.3 64.7 65.2 65.0 65.1 65.6 65.8 65.9 63.6 64.2 65.2 64.5 64.6 64.8 65.4 64.8 65.1 65.4 65.3 577.9 578.7 577.1 577.0 580.0 582.7 583.2 582.4 578.6 580.8 577.7 570.1 569.5 570.9 570.1 570.4 574.5 576.7 575.1 49.1 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.1 49.2 49.2 49.1 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.3 49.5 49.5 49.5 137.9 137.8 136.5 136.3 138.2 139.1 139.8 139.9 139.4 140.6 141.0 140.6 140.6 140.9 140.2 140.3 142.5 143.5 144.0 803.5 804.6 802.7 802.0 805.3 808.4 808.9 808.7 801.2 804.0 801.9 791.5 789.8 790.3 788.9 788.1 792.9 795.8 794.8 750.3 751.2 749.4 748.7 751.9 754.7 755.4 756.3 749.9 752.5 751.6 742.8 740.7 740.5 738.9 738.1 742.6 745.9 745.9 53.3 53.4 53.4 53.3 53.5 53.7 53.5 52.4 51.4 51.5 50.3 48.7 49.1 49.7 50.0 49.9 50.3 49.9 49.0 92.6 92.6 91.0 91.2 91.4 92.9 92.9 92.9 94.1 94.2 94.1 94.0 94.1 94.0 94.0 94.1 94.3 94.8 94.9 72.0 70.7 71.9 71.5 69.8 72.4 72.4 75.3 79.8 77.5 77.9 88.6 90.4 89.4 89.4 88.2 83.8 83.7 84.1 87.3 91.5 36.7 36.1 37.1 37.1 35.7 36.9 36.8 36.9 38.6 37.8 38.5 44.4 45.6 45.1 45.3 44.7 42.2 42.3 43.0 43.8 45.7 13.1 12.6 12.8 12.6 12.4 15.1 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.1 15.3 18.2 18.6 18.1 17.8 17.2 16.2 17.9 17.7 18.3 18.9 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.4 29.3 31.2 30.4 30.1 31.8 32.0 31.8 31.8 31.5 30.6 30.1 30.1 30.9 32.6 22.8 22.3 22.3 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.5 24.2 25.9 25.1 24.7 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.8 25.8 25.4 25.6 27.3 28.9 38.4 38.0 38.0 37.8 37.9 37.6 37.2 36.8 37.8 37.3 36.8 37.1 37.6 37.8 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.5 38.7 39.4 41.3 17.7 17.1 17.5 18.4 17.9 18.2 18.7 18.5 25.6 24.1 23.7 28.0 31.2 30.0 27.4 26.2 23.2 23.1 23.5 25.2 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.7 8.2 7.9 8.0 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.6 8.6 8.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.7 8.5 8.7 10.0 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.5 9.5 9.7 -2.0 -1.3 1.1 -0.3 -1.7 2.6 0.0 2.9 4.5 -2.4 0.4 10.8 1.8 -1.0 0.0 -1.2 -4.4 -0.1 0.5 3.1 4.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 3.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 3.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 4.1 3.8 5.8 3.9 4.8 5.9 5.3 7.4 10.6 4.6 7.4 13.9 7.5 7.0 7.7 4.9 5.5 5.5 6.6 7.2 9.9 4.7 3.8 3.3 2.9 5.4 4.6 3.9 3.2 4.7 5.8 6.0 2.4 5.0 7.0 6.5 4.9 8.1 6.4 4.6 2.9 4.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.7 32.3 32.9 33.5 34.1 35.0 35.7 36.3 36.6 37.2 36.6 37.0 37.5 37.5 37.6 37.6 37.9 37.5 37.7 38.2 38.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Wages in EUR 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2019 Q3 20 Nov 20 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal in € y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,754 1,808 2,027 2.7 3.4 4.3 3.0 3.3 4.6 3.9 4.5 4.2 3.2 8.8 4.8 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,685 1,717 1,911 2.7 3.8 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 4.0 3.1 2.8 5.5 3.9 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,979 2,090 2,389 2.8 2.4 6.5 2.2 1.3 6.4 6.1 6.0 7.6 4.2 15.8 6.3 Industry (B–E) 1,754 1,767 2,022 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.9 3.0 4.3 3.5 3.1 Trad, market services (GHI) 1,540 1,566 1,708 2.7 4.0 3.4 3.5 4.5 4.3 3.1 3.8 2.5 1.1 4.9 3.8 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,885 1,942 2,144 2.1 3.9 5.1 2.7 5.1 5.7 4.4 5.4 4.8 3.2 7.7 5.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,423 1,472 1,560 0.2 5.3 3.0 6.0 7.8 5.4 3.0 3.8 0.3 5.2 7.7 3.5 B Mining and quarrying 2,246 2,289 2,509 1.2 7.6 0.3 3.9 9.1 -3.0 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.3 9.8 2.8 C Manufacturing 1,717 1,727 1,975 3.2 3.9 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.9 2.9 4.2 2.8 3.0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,629 2,625 3,123 4.3 2.9 4.3 1.3 2.2 4.6 2.4 4.7 5.6 6.4 5.3 3.2 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,669 1,706 1,922 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.7 4.5 3.7 2.0 3.9 1.6 2.9 7.7 3.6 F Constrution 1,318 1,391 1,460 2.7 4.2 2.2 4.0 3.9 2.0 1.6 2.8 2.3 2.0 9.4 5.2 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,608 1,647 1,834 3.3 4.2 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.9 3.2 4.5 3.2 2.3 6.1 4.8 H Transportation and storage 1,567 1,553 1,661 1.7 3.3 1.6 2.9 4.6 2.7 2.3 2.0 -0.2 0.3 1.1 1.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,226 1,250 1,122 2.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.6 4.3 5.2 -3.0 -5.9 2.2 J Information and communication 2,373 2,431 2,588 2.4 4.1 5.7 4.4 6.3 6.8 5.9 4.6 5.4 4.0 6.5 4.1 K Financial and insurance activities 2,593 2,540 3,015 3.2 4.8 4.6 2.1 4.8 6.0 2.8 5.3 4.3 2.7 4.1 2.3 L Real estate activities 1,609 1,651 1,756 1.8 0.9 5.2 0.2 2.3 3.7 5.8 5.4 5.5 3.6 7.9 4.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,970 2,024 2,221 3.9 4.2 4.6 2.8 4.1 4.3 4.1 5.0 5.0 2.4 6.3 4.0 N Administrative and support service activities 1,201 1,237 1,402 2.5 5.8 5.1 4.9 7.0 6.1 4.4 6.1 3.6 4.0 7.4 3.9 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2,189 2,296 2,373 4.0 3.2 8.9 2.9 3.4 9.5 9.4 8.6 8.1 3.0 14.2 3.6 P Education 1,837 1,957 1,974 1.7 0.9 6.1 0.5 0.8 5.3 5.4 5.3 8.1 3.8 6.4 8.3 Q Human health and social work activities 1,973 2,080 2,846 3.1 3.4 5.1 3.5 0.1 5.0 4.1 4.5 6.9 5.7 26.5 6.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,779 1,818 1,778 1.7 1.7 4.3 0.5 2.8 5.1 2.7 3.8 5.4 -1.1 -2.4 4.5 S Other service activities 1,427 1,465 1,521 0.9 1.2 4.7 1.3 2.3 4.5 3.2 4.5 6.1 0.1 12.3 3.7 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2019 2020 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 5.2 3.4 4.9 3.9 4.7 4.1 4.5 5.0 0.3 11.9 9.5 5.5 4.3 5.0 5.1 4.6 6.8 4.4 3.4 3.3 2.9 5.0 2.7 4.4 2.9 3.5 2.9 4.5 5.5 -1.3 7.9 5.5 3.6 2.8 4.3 4.7 2.6 2.9 6.6 5.8 5.8 6.7 6.2 5.4 6.3 6.7 8.6 7.6 4.3 3.4 4.8 20.7 17.5 9.6 7.4 6.2 5.2 9.1 17.7 2.9 4.2 3.2 2.3 4.9 2.2 4.5 3.0 2.7 3.4 4.9 6.6 1.2 6.1 2.6 2.2 1.1 3.8 4.6 2.7 1.6 4.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.4 3.0 3.8 2.5 4.4 0.6 3.6 4.7 -4.9 7.4 6.0 2.1 3.7 3.5 4.1 1.5 1.6 7.3 4.3 4.9 4.0 6.8 3.9 5.7 3.9 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.4 -1.2 8.9 7.6 6.7 4.1 5.9 5.3 3.6 4.9 4.8 3.8 2.7 2.6 5.4 2.3 3.6 5.8 -4.8 0.3 4.1 6.6 5.0 9.0 8.2 6.0 1.9 3.7 5.0 -1.9 5.5 1.5 -2.0 -1.7 -1.8 5.8 -2.5 4.6 3.8 4.8 2.8 1.2 8.2 3.7 14.4 9.2 6.0 -0.9 7.6 1.9 1.9 5.1 2.8 4.6 3.5 2.4 5.0 2.3 4.5 3.0 2.6 3.2 5.0 6.9 0.6 5.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 3.8 4.6 2.8 1.4 6.9 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.2 3.9 5.0 2.9 8.1 5.6 6.9 5.3 6.9 7.2 4.1 4.6 3.3 2.5 3.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 0.6 2.7 2.9 5.2 2.2 4.3 3.0 -2.0 4.0 1.6 3.5 3.6 11.2 6.9 5.2 1.7 3.2 5.9 1.4 4.4 3.0 2.2 1.0 1.6 3.1 2.3 3.0 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.5 3.9 -1.4 11.5 11.1 6.0 4.8 4.2 6.7 3.9 6.5 5.3 2.0 3.4 4.1 4.4 3.9 5.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 4.6 5.5 -3.1 6.9 7.6 4.3 5.9 4.4 4.2 3.4 3.5 2.4 2.8 1.8 2.4 4.1 1.1 0.8 -0.2 5.3 -5.1 0.9 2.8 -2.9 3.3 1.6 -1.2 -1.1 0.5 3.8 0.1 -2.7 6.0 3.7 4.8 5.3 5.0 3.3 4.7 4.5 7.1 3.9 5.1 4.7 -18.8 -0.1 -8.9 -6.8 1.1 3.8 1.7 -8.5 -13.0 8.8 5.9 6.0 5.9 4.3 3.3 6.4 2.9 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.1 1.2 6.7 5.8 6.9 4.1 4.3 3.8 4.1 4.3 12.5 0.6 5.9 1.8 5.9 3.5 6.7 2.0 4.4 6.4 5.6 7.7 -3.1 6.4 -0.4 6.5 0.9 3.6 2.4 2.3 0.5 3.3 6.5 4.8 6.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 5.8 6.7 3.9 5.5 4.6 0.7 7.9 10.6 5.3 5.1 4.8 3.7 3.2 1.4 3.5 5.6 2.9 3.7 5.4 4.5 5.1 5.2 5.6 4.2 5.2 3.4 -1.5 5.9 7.8 5.4 3.1 4.2 4.8 1.6 3.1 5.7 5.7 3.9 3.7 11.1 3.2 4.1 4.0 1.4 5.4 4.8 5.9 1.2 9.3 9.0 4.1 1.8 5.3 4.6 2.3 9.2 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.3 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.9 7.5 4.4 2.1 2.6 11.8 18.1 12.8 2.7 4.4 3.9 6.2 7.0 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.8 6.0 9.4 8.9 4.5 4.1 2.8 8.9 4.9 5.6 10.2 7.2 7.4 7.5 3.9 5.6 3.4 3.5 5.6 3.8 4.4 5.4 6.3 7.6 6.6 4.1 4.0 9.0 38.4 30.6 11.3 9.0 6.9 4.0 13.6 40.2 6.3 -1.3 5.1 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.0 9.2 4.0 2.7 3.0 -9.1 -0.9 -1.4 -4.2 4.4 3.9 5.3 2.4 -6.0 4.1 2.1 3.1 4.4 4.2 3.9 5.4 4.1 6.0 8.3 3.3 2.3 -5.0 17.8 15.1 5.1 3.5 4.1 3.4 1.2 1.8 Prices and indicators of overall competitiveness 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 1 2 3 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.4 1.8 -1.1 1.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 -0.9 0.0 -0.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.6 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.6 3.3 1.0 1.7 0.4 1.1 2.5 2.4 4.0 4.4 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 0.4 1.9 3.2 0.8 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.3 0.3 3.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 Clothing and footwear 0.3 0.5 -5.4 -0.2 0.7 0.5 3.6 0.5 1.3 -3.8 -4.1 -4.5 0.3 0.5 -0.5 2.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 4.7 2.7 -0.6 5.4 4.2 5.3 4.5 2.6 0.7 -5.5 0.7 -0.3 4.7 3.5 3.9 5.1 Furnishing, household equipm. 0.9 0.4 -0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.7 Medical, pharmaceutical produ. 1.3 1.4 4.9 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.0 Transport -0.7 0.1 -5.9 0.6 -1.3 0.1 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 -7.4 -6.6 -6.7 -0.7 -2.0 -1.6 -0.2 Communications 3.3 -0.4 0.6 2.0 3.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 -1.5 0.0 1.0 0.9 3.3 2.1 3.9 3.1 Recreation and culture 1.9 0.6 -3.9 2.5 2.4 1.3 2.1 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -1.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.9 Education 1.7 5.6 0.7 1.8 2.2 3.5 4.2 5.6 4.8 3.3 2.2 0.6 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.6 Catering services 2.4 3.2 0.6 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 2.4 3.1 2.7 2.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.7 4.4 0.7 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.4 4.1 4.9 3.7 2.9 0.9 1.7 0.8 1.2 2.0 HICP 1.4 2.0 -1.2 1.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.2 1.6 -0.1 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 1.4 0.6 -0.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 Domestic market 1.2 2.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 Non-domestic market 1.6 -0.9 -1.4 1.8 0.9 -0.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.8 -1.1 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 Euro area 1.6 -0.7 -1.2 1.9 1.2 -0.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 -1.5 -0.4 -0.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 Non-euro area 1.7 -1.2 -1.8 1.7 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 1.7 0.1 0.1 -0.2 Import price indices 1.7 -1.4 -2.6 2.8 1.4 0.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2.3 -4.7 -3.5 -3.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate2 , nominal 0.8 -0.4 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Real (deflator HICP) 0.8 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -1.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 Real (deflator ULC) 0.8 1.0 0.7 -0.1 1.8 1.6 0.7 3.8 2.6 1.6 USD / EUR 1.1815 1.1196 1.1413 1.1412 1.1357 1.1239 1.1116 1.1072 1.1023 1.1006 1.1695 1.1928 1.1384 1.1416 1.1351 1.1302 Sources: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 18 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2019 2020 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 0.5 0.7 2.2 2.9 2.9 1.7 1.5 2.4 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 3.1 3.1 3.6 4.1 3.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 -0.2 0.1 1.5 3.2 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.8 0.7 -3.4 -4.2 -3.8 -1.8 -5.2 -5.3 -1.9 -6.1 -5.4 5.1 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.9 3.9 2.9 2.1 2.7 4.1 3.4 -5.4 -7.8 -8.6 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.9 0.5 1.5 2.2 2.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.6 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 0.6 -0.8 -0.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 5.0 4.9 0.8 0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -2.0 -0.9 -1.6 0.1 1.3 -0.3 -1.5 -7.6 -7.8 -6.7 -6.6 -7.1 -6.2 -6.8 -7.4 -5.9 1.7 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -1.2 1.1 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -0.1 -2.3 -2.0 -1.5 0.9 0.7 1.6 1.6 -0.1 1.5 0.6 0.6 2.0 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.6 -0.9 0.7 -0.2 -0.8 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -1.1 -3.9 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.6 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 3.5 3.4 4.5 4.4 5.3 5.4 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.7 1.8 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.0 0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -1.1 -1.2 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.8 0.0 -0.1 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -1.7 -1.2 -1.2 -1.9 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 -1.5 -1.7 -1.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.7 -2.0 -1.2 -1.1 -2.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -1.8 -1.8 1.2 0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.4 -2.0 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7 -3.6 -4.9 -5.2 -4.1 -3.5 -3.4 -3.6 -4.1 -3.6 -2.6 -0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.3 0.0 1.1238 1.1185 1.1293 1.1218 1.1126 1.1004 1.1053 1.1051 1.1113 1.1100 1.0905 1.1063 1.0862 1.0902 1.1255 1.1463 1.1828 1.1792 1.1775 1.1838 1.2170 Balance of payments 2017 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 2,674 2,680 2,723 801 508 716 690 662 655 847 656 923 182 63 295 163 Goods 1,617 1,282 1,330 400 120 414 434 204 278 569 582 746 94 -28 107 158 Exports 28,372 30,817 32,013 7,555 7,922 7,983 8,295 7,831 7,904 7,850 6,423 7,359 2,809 2,239 2,544 2,589 Imports 26,756 29,535 30,682 7,155 7,801 7,569 7,861 7,628 7,625 7,281 5,841 6,613 2,715 2,267 2,437 2,431 Services 2,254 2,625 2,787 779 692 534 691 831 732 549 408 537 223 182 198 149 Exports 7,394 8,104 8,548 2,320 2,148 1,794 2,097 2,431 2,227 1,773 1,450 1,792 664 730 569 575 Imports 5,140 5,478 5,762 1,541 1,456 1,260 1,406 1,600 1,495 1,224 1,041 1,255 440 548 371 426 Primary income -879 -819 -853 -256 -230 -9 -329 -239 -276 -107 -192 -274 -99 -84 63 -38 Receipts 1,381 1,578 1,701 316 411 418 481 355 445 455 366 315 108 189 202 93 Expenditures 2,260 2,397 2,554 572 641 428 810 594 722 562 558 589 208 273 140 131 Secondary income -317 -408 -541 -121 -75 -223 -106 -134 -78 -164 -142 -86 -35 -7 -72 -106 Receipts 828 793 805 173 242 185 188 204 229 198 198 188 65 96 59 67 Expenditures 1,145 1,201 1,346 294 317 407 294 338 307 362 340 273 100 104 132 172 Capital account -324 -225 -187 -28 -120 -27 -11 -30 -120 -54 -18 -26 -7 -115 -17 -19 Financial account 2,112 2,524 2,454 702 206 785 522 722 425 808 144 535 254 -385 515 430 Direct investment -495 -934 -748 -462 -229 -323 -193 -120 -112 -175 -119 -109 -88 -254 42 -393 Assets 570 373 773 23 97 429 20 116 208 29 197 -79 -19 -117 76 176 Liabilities 1,065 1,307 1,521 485 327 753 213 236 320 205 316 30 69 138 34 569 Portfolio investment 2,990 744 791 996 -515 546 -88 -92 424 -1,940 -1,916 1,328 -687 82 -1,507 2,166 Financial derivatives -185 -81 -163 24 -31 -184 20 -8 8 53 -32 5 -12 -10 -62 -56 Other investment -287 2,743 2,537 73 965 725 737 975 100 2,822 2,181 -715 1,031 -196 2,014 -1,254 Assets -1,372 2,039 3,424 -369 1,216 696 1,484 1,055 189 3,399 2,030 -647 1,038 -108 1,769 -1,307 Other equity 73 68 84 16 -25 43 35 28 -22 13 19 14 -8 -9 3 36 Currency and deposits -2,154 1,493 2,836 -309 1,544 -4 1,123 1,058 659 2,751 2,673 -791 1,015 387 1,293 -1,461 Loans -108 215 412 52 74 49 324 57 -18 79 41 55 7 28 33 11 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 5 -7 13 -1 -8 8 1 1 2 2 3 -1 -3 -3 3 3 Trade credit and advances 615 303 42 54 -318 571 -56 -142 -332 403 -545 75 25 -436 179 195 Other assets 197 -33 38 -182 -50 29 56 52 -100 151 -160 1 2 -75 259 -90 Liabilities -1,085 -704 887 -442 251 -29 747 80 89 576 -151 68 7 89 -245 -53 Other equity 0 2 2 0 2 0 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 Currency and deposits 365 -524 935 242 365 42 327 231 335 416 440 334 5 239 -93 82 Loans -1,846 -482 -158 -83 -297 -107 146 53 -250 40 -256 -325 -3 -245 8 -185 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 5 20 27 -14 -14 40 13 9 -35 40 18 6 -5 -5 13 13 Trade credit and advances 411 331 62 -201 179 2 116 -140 84 -58 -393 20 52 60 -287 151 Other liabilities -20 -51 19 -385 16 -5 144 -72 -48 138 39 33 -43 37 113 -114 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets 89 52 37 70 16 21 44 -33 5 49 29 26 10 -7 27 -33 Net errors and omissions -239 69 -81 -71 -182 96 -157 90 -110 15 -494 -361 79 -333 237 286 Sources: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2019 2020 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 257 217 305 168 209 240 213 386 300 -30 252 351 245 212 128 316 409 134 380 467 294 150 42 148 244 139 42 22 214 137 -72 136 244 189 168 129 285 361 96 289 311 259 2,850 2,785 2,837 2,672 2,871 2,199 2,761 2,905 2,747 2,251 2,577 2,690 2,583 1,836 2,114 2,472 2,690 2,007 2,662 2,817 2,785 2,700 2,744 2,689 2,428 2,732 2,157 2,739 2,691 2,611 2,323 2,441 2,446 2,394 1,668 1,985 2,187 2,329 1,911 2,373 2,507 2,526 186 286 203 201 283 290 258 301 219 211 211 213 125 133 111 165 181 153 202 241 119 650 735 660 701 856 815 760 759 697 770 608 621 544 460 445 544 638 576 578 629 517 463 449 457 500 573 525 502 458 478 559 396 408 420 327 335 379 457 422 376 388 397 -34 -83 -18 -227 -156 -50 -33 -78 -40 -159 1 -53 -54 -49 -56 -87 -104 -92 -79 -63 -36 123 123 214 143 122 106 127 130 144 172 187 138 130 134 131 102 108 102 105 117 149 158 207 233 371 278 157 159 207 184 331 186 192 184 183 187 189 211 194 183 180 185 -44 -27 -28 -51 -57 -42 -34 -52 -16 -10 -97 -53 -14 -40 -56 -47 -29 -24 -33 -22 -49 59 71 60 56 67 62 75 70 74 85 66 55 78 73 60 65 71 55 62 88 87 103 99 89 107 124 104 109 122 90 96 162 108 92 113 115 112 100 78 95 110 136 9 -9 15 -18 -10 -10 -9 -9 29 -139 -17 -17 -19 -4 -3 -10 -16 2 -13 -15 0 -160 187 377 -42 497 -213 438 429 182 -186 251 335 222 269 -105 -20 148 132 256 319 371 28 -127 -27 -38 -45 -46 -29 107 -17 -201 -6 -65 -104 -290 -9 180 21 -171 41 -14 3 177 -21 115 -74 101 -91 106 161 59 -11 100 134 -204 -126 173 149 -209 -105 234 185 103 149 106 142 -36 146 -44 134 54 76 190 106 199 -101 164 182 -30 -229 66 193 199 100 -113 175 41 -303 -282 -17 207 86 -48 386 -848 -158 -934 -1,575 -490 150 274 507 547 -412 521 -66 8 3 10 -1 -9 3 3 1 4 14 11 28 -17 -8 -7 4 0 1 -5 2 -36 106 354 277 863 -152 264 221 260 -381 1,070 535 1,218 2,143 410 -372 -166 -206 -343 740 -169 234 221 771 491 843 89 123 177 409 -396 886 795 1,718 1,850 371 -191 -245 -241 -162 1,187 297 4 12 12 12 8 10 10 -8 -8 -7 5 4 5 4 6 9 5 5 4 5 4 165 199 564 360 904 196 -42 38 394 227 690 533 1,528 2,315 484 -127 -356 -132 -304 844 159 6 13 132 179 -2 28 31 -25 11 -5 14 27 38 21 8 12 -35 46 44 69 50 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 196 19 -27 -47 -80 -178 117 184 -15 -500 53 251 98 -368 -163 -14 96 -125 104 228 91 -140 -22 90 -12 12 33 7 -13 26 -113 124 -21 48 -122 34 -72 46 -35 -10 40 -7 269 115 418 214 -20 241 -141 -44 148 -15 -184 260 501 -293 -39 181 -79 -35 181 447 466 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 52 92 116 119 45 187 -1 144 20 171 4 66 346 299 -48 188 169 88 77 221 132 70 53 70 24 152 172 -271 -239 32 -43 -2 112 -70 -93 -5 -158 -113 -74 -138 53 230 13 4 4 4 3 3 3 -12 -12 -12 13 13 13 6 6 6 2 2 2 0 0 137 -69 152 33 -173 -106 139 49 104 -68 -274 76 140 -502 -66 175 -122 -37 179 183 128 -4 36 74 34 -46 -15 -11 15 4 -66 74 -7 72 -4 73 -30 -14 -13 61 -10 -25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 25 7 12 -37 11 -7 12 -15 7 22 13 14 9 -9 30 15 2 10 11 15 -426 -22 57 -192 298 -442 234 52 -147 -16 17 2 -4 61 -230 -326 -246 -4 -111 -133 76 328 310 324 315 340 261 352 336 344 333 252 316 283 230 277 301 325 239 336 335 N/A 1,504 1,488 1,494 1,407 1,556 1,223 1,458 1,552 1,442 1,102 1,397 1,424 1,389 982 1,068 1,242 1,342 1,076 1,383 1,489 N/A 1,055 1,028 1,147 1,077 1,128 828 1,157 1,204 1,165 920 1,328 1,174 1,285 862 1,087 1,210 1,275 901 1,242 1,332 N/A 386 369 372 362 386 266 403 374 389 424 330 309 298 214 298 337 337 277 333 371 N/A 1,629 1,734 1,620 1,437 1,656 1,313 1,667 1,591 1,546 1,312 1,497 1,465 1,475 1,001 1,157 1,237 1,406 1,157 1,412 1,508 N/A 848 1,064 852 900 1,029 747 936 1,246 971 1,015 960 1,019 1,031 725 801 1,047 1,018 912 920 1,076 N/A Monetary indicators and 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 interest rates 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Claims of the BoS on central government 7,165 7,719 11,805 7,042 7,041 7,059 7,088 7,165 7,256 7,023 7,152 7,219 7,327 7,606 Central government (S,1311) 4,937 4,696 4,520 4,877 4,831 4,905 4,939 4,937 4,980 4,805 4,819 4,944 5,089 5,058 Other government (S,1312,1313,1314) 580 602 639 562 554 559 558 580 588 587 583 577 581 577 Households (S,14, 15) 10,370 10,981 10,997 10,161 10,231 10,296 10,339 10,370 10,397 10,426 10,507 10,570 10,628 10,642 Non-financial corporations (S,11) 9,496 9,589 9,363 9,647 9,647 9,656 9,628 9,496 9,665 9,676 9,681 9,637 9,571 9,749 Non-monetary financial institutions (S,123, 124, 125) 1,502 1,661 1,640 1,592 1,593 1,497 1,503 1,502 1,503 1,490 1,486 1,484 1,482 1,496 Monetary financial institutions (S,121, 122) 4,275 5,230 7,969 4,186 4,060 3,614 3,904 4,275 4,247 4,380 4,207 3,963 4,099 4,001 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 26,181 27,913 30,341 26,051 25,973 25,600 25,921 26,181 26,367 26,516 26,385 26,138 26,329 26,381 In foreign currency 446 391 345 491 485 467 451 446 435 432 434 420 422 419 Securities, total 4,429 4,382 4,361 4,381 4,356 4,354 4,393 4,429 4,475 4,397 4,433 4,580 4,659 4,685 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Overnight deposits 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Time deposits with maturity of up 0.16 0.17 0.15 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.17 to one year New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, v % 3-month rates -0.322 -0.356 -0.425 -0.319 -0.319 -0.318 -0.316 -0.312 -0.308 -0.308 -0.309 -0.311 -0.312 -0.329 6-month rates -0.266 -0.302 -0.364 -0.267 -0.268 -0.264 -0.257 -0.241 -0.236 -0.232 -0.230 -0.231 -0.237 -0.279 3-month rates -0.735 -0.737 -0.708 -0.726 -0.731 -0.741 -0.745 -0.735 -0.704 -0.713 -0.707 -0.715 -0.713 -0.717 6-month rates -0.653 -0.684 -0.659 -0.649 -0.652 -0.662 -0.667 -0.659 -0.639 -0.652 -0.648 -0.650 -0.656 -0.673 Sources: BoS, EUROSTAT, 0.01 2019 2020 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 7,631 7,913 7,791 7,819 7,817 7,719 7,624 7,744 7,399 7,662 8,307 9,007 9,766 10,011 10,438 11,012 11,421 11,805 5,070 5,007 5,037 4,959 4,928 4,696 4,410 4,455 4,753 4,859 4,838 4,884 4,962 4,872 4,705 4,701 4,640 4,520 570 567 574 573 577 602 613 616 613 614 612 602 601 608 602 598 607 639 10,703 10,781 10,833 10,950 10,978 10,981 10,982 11,005 10,954 10,882 10,890 10,828 10,884 10,926 10,970 11,025 11,007 10,997 9,738 9,878 9,868 9,869 9,882 9,589 9,794 9,871 10,070 9,971 9,808 9,711 9,668 9,597 9,562 9,552 9,548 9,363 1,503 1,493 1,486 1,479 1,481 1,661 1,674 1,674 1,675 1,663 1,657 1,656 1,667 1,666 1,656 1,653 1,642 1,640 4,335 4,067 3,894 4,011 4,531 5,230 5,403 5,138 5,461 5,889 6,555 7,206 7,389 7,390 7,096 7,266 7,729 7,969 26,725 26,651 26,509 26,728 27,331 27,913 27,860 27,687 28,145 28,388 28,896 29,354 29,514 29,499 29,630 29,858 30,299 30,341 416 420 412 398 392 391 389 390 389 390 387 388 374 368 354 352 343 345 4,727 4,666 4,704 4,642 4,581 4,382 4,554 4,608 4,910 5,015 4,994 5,062 5,204 5,116 4,528 4,499 4,447 4,361 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.1 0.04 0.15 0.21 0.2 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 -0.365 -0.408 -0.418 -0.413 -0.401 -0.395 -0.391 -0.409 -0.417 -0.254 -0.270 -0.376 -0.441 -0.480 -0.491 -0.509 -0.521 -0.538 -0.347 -0.405 -0.394 -0.362 -0.337 -0.336 -0.330 -0.355 -0.365 -0.192 -0.142 -0.223 -0.346 -0.433 -0.463 -0.494 -0.509 -0.519 -0.751 -0.817 -0.812 -0.774 -0.712 -0.711 -0.679 -0.707 -0.761 -0.589 -0.619 -0.659 -0.692 -0.710 -0.751 -0.769 -0.771 -0.788 -0.719 -0.802 -0.771 -0.711 -0.650 -0.639 -0.624 -0.663 -0.703 -0.540 -0.575 -0.594 -0.647 -0.658 -0.707 -0.727 -0.729 -0.738 Public finance 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2019 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, EUR m TOTAL REVENUES 18,593.6 19,232.3 18,531.1 5,102.5 4,518.9 4,944.0 4,671.6 5,097.8 4,649.5 4,094.2 4,892.9 4,894.5 1,547.5 1,401.3 1,570.2 1,702.7 Current revenues 17,575.9 18,293.3 17,581.8 4,803.5 4,276.0 4,730.5 4,478.2 4,808.7 4,409.1 3,917.7 4,634.5 4,620.5 1,529.5 1,372.4 1,374.1 1,623.1 Tax revenues 16,225.3 17,179.1 16,460.6 4,297.6 4,103.3 4,350.6 4,169.7 4,555.6 4,159.4 3,578.0 4,343.3 4,380.0 1,473.5 1,315.3 1,314.5 1,545.1 Taxes on income and profit 3,296.4 3,614.0 3,261.8 868.3 850.4 1,058.4 717.7 987.4 879.9 692.0 764.7 925.2 289.6 275.3 285.4 426.4 Social security contributions 6,549.8 7,021.3 7,275.1 1,715.0 1,710.3 1,734.9 1,745.5 1,830.6 1,819.7 1,603.2 1,954.5 1,897.8 575.5 563.7 571.1 580.1 Taxes on payroll and workforce 21.6 23.2 21.6 6.1 5.3 5.9 5.4 6.6 5.9 4.0 5.6 6.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 Taxes on property 277.9 296.4 286.8 78.2 26.3 67.6 120.9 81.6 31.0 48.6 111.3 95.8 10.6 8.1 7.6 18.8 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,989.3 6,126.7 5,493.3 1,632.4 1,427.8 1,490.3 1,565.7 1,643.0 1,376.4 1,069.0 1,565.1 1,482.7 531.1 503.3 393.4 541.8 Taxes on international trade & transactions 89.8 98.6 102.4 23.2 25.5 25.6 25.5 22.1 24.0 24.5 25.3 28.7 7.3 8.9 9.2 9.3 Other taxes 0.5 -1.1 19.6 -25.6 57.8 -32.0 -11.1 -15.8 22.5 136.7 -83.4 -56.3 57.6 -45.8 46.0 -33.1 Non-tax revenues 1,350.6 1,114.2 1,121.2 505.9 172.6 380.0 308.5 253.1 249.7 339.7 291.3 240.6 56.0 57.1 59.5 78.0 Capital revenues 152.8 136.4 146.4 43.1 23.9 31.2 34.4 46.9 31.2 20.1 31.3 63.9 7.6 8.2 8.1 10.4 Grants 12.4 13.8 17.5 3.6 5.2 1.1 6.3 1.2 8.1 1.4 6.9 1.1 0.0 5.0 0.1 0.5 Transferred revenues 55.6 58.3 54.9 3.3 1.8 3.1 50.3 3.1 0.2 21.7 30.6 2.4 0.1 1.7 0.0 1.5 Receipts from the EU budget 796.9 730.5 730.4 249.0 212.1 178.0 102.4 238.0 200.9 133.3 189.6 206.6 10.2 13.9 187.9 67.2 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, EUR m TOTAL EXPENDITURES 18,068.0 18,968.8 22,074.4 5,060.6 4,689.9 4,506.0 4,705.7 5,067.2 5,024.6 5,703.7 5,250.2 6,095.9 1,572.4 1,502.3 1,615.1 1,491.8 Current expenditures 7,966.5 8,228.3 9,128.5 2,142.1 2,116.1 2,010.6 2,007.6 2,094.0 2,359.6 2,074.0 2,201.0 2,493.9 689.2 648.0 779.0 700.9 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 4,167.9 4,470.5 4,962.4 1,079.1 1,069.5 1,178.3 1,101.6 1,121.2 1,182.5 1,318.2 1,244.5 1,217.3 342.3 360.4 366.8 355.8 Expenditures on goods and services 2,633.7 2,728.0 3,024.3 798.5 600.5 667.6 673.8 786.0 687.4 661.7 736.7 938.5 194.2 186.8 219.5 221.0 Interest payments 867.9 791.5 778.0 69.5 404.2 122.7 175.7 88.9 442.4 53.7 187.0 95.0 145.4 91.9 166.9 114.8 Reserves 296.9 238.4 363.8 195.0 42.0 42.1 56.4 97.9 47.3 40.5 32.8 243.1 7.3 8.9 25.8 9.3 Current transfers 8,236.6 8,704.2 10,866.0 2,103.7 2,187.9 2,107.1 2,201.2 2,208.1 2,308.7 3,219.2 2,632.9 2,705.1 766.3 693.7 727.9 677.8 Subsidies 443.9 467.9 1,449.3 127.5 161.8 113.4 53.5 139.3 167.9 711.7 305.5 264.2 122.5 8.6 30.6 26.5 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,925.8 7,323.9 8,251.5 1,720.5 1,784.6 1,816.5 1,912.6 1,810.3 1,902.6 2,253.7 2,061.9 2,033.3 576.9 607.1 600.5 613.0 Current transfers to non­profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 793.5 827.7 1,080.7 232.9 216.6 163.1 215.3 232.7 215.0 242.6 248.9 374.2 56.2 68.3 92.1 33.1 Current transfers abroad 73.4 84.7 84.4 22.9 25.0 14.1 19.8 25.9 23.2 11.2 16.6 33.4 10.6 9.7 4.7 5.1 Capital expenditures 1,159.9 1,252.9 1,230.4 558.9 156.1 240.3 315.4 541.2 172.8 232.7 263.2 561.7 44.2 55.2 56.7 67.0 Capital transfers 271.6 273.6 323.5 145.3 24.9 49.3 57.8 141.6 29.6 42.9 68.0 183.0 7.2 8.1 9.6 15.3 Payments to the EU budget 433.4 509.7 526.0 110.5 204.8 98.8 123.8 82.3 154.0 134.7 85.1 152.2 65.6 97.3 41.9 30.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT 525.6 263.5 -3,543.3 41.8 -171.0 438.0 -34.2 30.6 -375.2 -1,609.5 -357.3 -1,201.4 -25.0 -101.1 -44.9 210.9 Source: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2019 2020 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1,622.5 1,618.9 1,461.5 1,556.0 1,654.1 1,669.3 1,612.8 1,815.6 1,678.4 1,483.5 1,487.6 1,315.0 1,160.1 1,619.1 1,660.0 1,602.5 1,630.4 1,644.6 1,607.1 1,642.9 1,542.0 1,565.5 1,438.2 1,539.6 1,500.4 1,626.9 1,576.5 1,605.3 1,638.2 1,438.0 1,332.9 1,256.3 1,097.2 1,564.2 1,607.2 1,534.1 1,493.2 1,585.1 1,532.0 1,503.5 1,400.4 1,405.1 1,308.2 1,461.2 1,400.2 1,535.2 1,498.3 1,522.1 1,581.5 1,358.8 1,219.1 1,171.9 940.5 1,465.6 1,476.5 1,466.9 1,399.9 1,511.1 1,452.0 1,416.9 300.1 332.0 126.7 308.1 282.9 305.1 313.3 369.0 296.6 292.1 291.3 190.1 204.9 296.9 158.5 302.0 304.2 281.9 301.1 342.2 576.6 578.2 583.8 582.3 579.4 579.4 586.8 664.4 615.1 599.2 605.4 391.2 526.4 685.5 681.5 648.2 624.9 605.4 609.7 682.7 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 19.9 28.9 35.7 36.6 48.5 35.8 30.4 15.4 10.1 7.6 13.3 13.1 14.7 20.8 40.0 38.7 32.6 45.8 32.1 18.0 492.5 456.0 564.8 522.0 478.9 601.5 575.0 466.6 631.2 446.7 298.5 372.7 285.5 410.8 582.5 510.9 471.7 600.1 506.5 376.1 8.3 8.0 10.2 8.1 7.2 8.0 7.4 6.8 7.2 7.9 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.9 9.0 10.5 9.1 1.2 -0.1 -15.2 2.5 1.6 3.4 -16.6 -2.6 19.2 3.4 -0.1 195.5 -100.4 41.7 3.8 -42.9 -44.3 -33.1 -10.0 -13.2 141.6 160.4 130.0 78.4 100.1 91.6 78.2 83.2 56.7 79.2 113.8 84.4 156.7 98.6 130.7 67.2 93.4 73.9 80.0 86.6 11.5 9.3 15.0 7.3 12.1 15.3 11.9 19.7 11.3 12.2 7.8 5.7 6.3 8.1 10.9 9.8 10.6 18.1 14.6 31.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 5.6 1.2 3.7 -3.8 1.0 5.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 6.0 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.2 50.1 0.0 -0.2 3.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 21.4 0.5 30.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.0 68.7 42.1 8.1 8.4 85.9 25.9 20.9 191.1 27.9 27.9 145.1 51.8 56.3 25.2 40.9 28.0 120.6 41.1 59.0 106.5 1,454.3 1,559.9 1,700.8 1,487.7 1,517.2 1,540.6 1,628.2 1,898.4 1,723.2 1,498.0 1,803.4 1,730.1 1,755.2 2,218.4 1,880.1 1,644.0 1,726.0 1,668.8 1,835.6 2,591.5 605.5 704.2 691.1 657.8 658.6 642.1 696.0 755.9 799.9 625.1 934.5 684.8 647.1 742.1 754.3 682.0 764.7 681.2 745.6 1,067.1 363.1 459.4 375.1 368.2 358.2 375.5 370.3 375.4 401.9 387.1 393.5 380.8 411.5 525.9 469.8 391.6 383.1 375.2 406.9 435.2 222.5 224.1 250.8 204.7 218.3 246.0 236.1 303.9 236.3 203.5 247.6 251.3 217.0 193.3 231.6 205.0 300.1 228.3 248.7 461.4 4.1 3.8 47.2 56.3 72.2 8.8 66.9 13.3 153.2 21.3 267.9 43.3 4.2 6.2 45.8 68.6 72.6 14.8 66.8 13.4 15.8 17.0 18.0 28.6 9.9 11.9 22.8 63.2 8.6 13.3 25.5 9.4 14.4 16.6 7.1 16.8 8.9 62.8 23.1 157.1 715.9 713.4 849.6 668.4 683.1 711.5 740.5 756.0 781.6 759.5 767.6 887.4 945.4 1,386.5 986.3 830.7 815.9 799.3 867.4 1,038.5 39.8 47.1 19.9 16.5 17.0 33.1 49.3 56.8 82.8 39.7 45.4 53.1 183.9 474.8 224.6 46.7 34.1 54.8 77.2 132.3 600.3 603.2 745.7 578.4 588.4 605.9 599.9 604.4 623.5 643.0 636.0 742.7 678.2 832.8 666.2 695.2 700.4 657.8 675.4 700.2 69.9 60.1 77.0 63.0 75.3 70.2 75.7 86.8 66.5 68.5 80.0 87.2 78.7 76.7 89.0 85.6 74.3 82.4 90.0 201.8 6.0 3.0 6.9 10.5 2.3 2.4 15.5 8.0 8.8 8.4 6.1 4.3 4.6 2.2 6.4 3.2 7.0 4.4 24.8 4.2 88.2 85.2 102.0 100.3 113.1 122.9 141.7 276.6 53.5 56.9 62.4 104.5 87.7 40.5 84.8 87.4 91.0 114.3 124.7 322.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 19.7 21.0 24.0 31.0 86.6 11.0 8.0 10.5 11.0 15.3 16.6 26.9 22.3 18.8 32.1 33.3 117.6 27.7 40.1 41.0 41.5 41.3 40.0 19.0 23.4 77.1 48.5 28.4 42.3 59.7 32.7 27.8 21.7 35.6 41.9 64.6 45.7 168.2 58.9 -239.3 68.3 136.9 128.8 -15.3 -82.8 -44.8 -14.6 -315.8 -415.1 -595.1 -599.3 -220.1 -41.5 -95.6 -24.2 -228.5 -948.7 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, DARS – Motorway Company of the Republic of Slovenia, EC – European Commission, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EMMI – European Money Markets Institute, ENTSO-E - European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, ERDF – European Regional Development Fund, ESF – European Social Fund, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European union, EUR – Euro, EURIBOR – Euro Interbank Offer Rate, reference interest rate for short-term interbank deposits in euros, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, FURS – Financial Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, GDP– Gross domestic product, GNI – gross national income, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, MF – Ministry of Finance, NEER – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, PMI – Purchasing Managers' Index, REER – Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SVRK – Government Office for Development and European Cohesion Policy, USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added tax, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia, WEO – World Economic Outlook. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 – Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 – Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29 – Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30 – Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 – Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D – Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E – Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J– Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AU-Australia, AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CA-Canada, CH-Switzerland, CL-Chile, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, HR-Croatia, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IS-Iceland, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, KR-South Korea, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, MX-Mexico, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. slovenian economic mirror No. 2, Vol. XXVII, 2021