.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) ViD <5 u^ CD fN (U C Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 6 / Vol. XXI / 2015 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Matevž Hribernik Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Janez Dodič, Lejla Fajič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Mateja Kovač, MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Author of Selected Topics: Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2014) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................12 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................14 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................17 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................18 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................20 Boxes Box 1: Real estate market - Q1 2015............................................................................................................................10 Box 2: Competition in retail trade ....................................................................................................................................11 Selected topics Tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2014...............................................................................................................25 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................33 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicate a further improvement in the euro area at the beginning of the second quarter. Activity in manufacturing, construction and retail trade increased in April. Labour market conditions are gradually recovering but remain tighter than before the crisis. A further recovery is also suggested by confidence indicators, which rose slightly again in the second quarter. The ECB's asset purchase programme is also carried out in line with expectations, and is reflected in an improvement on financial markets and in lending conditions for households and enterprises. The main risk to the further recovery in the euro area is uncertainty related to the agreement between Greece and its lenders. Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia that are based on foreign demand increased at the beginning of the second quarter, while merchandise exports declined. After stagnating in the first quarter, real merchandise exports decreased in April (seasonally adjusted) but remained higher than in the same period of 2014. After increasing at the beginning of the year, production volume in manufacturing and construction output remained almost the same as one month earlier. Turnover in the trade sector increased further. Growth in retail segments indicates a continuation of the otherwise modest growth of private consumption. Household receipts are also rising and households are taking out more loans. Confidence in the economy and among consumers is the highest since the beginning of the economic crisis. Employment is still increasing while registered unemployment continues to decline (seasonally adjusted), but in the past few months the changes have been less pronounced than at the beginning of the year. The number of employed, which has been rising since the beginning of 2014, was 1.7% higher year-in-year in April. At the end of June, 110,245 persons were registered as unemployed, 6.1 % fewer than in June 2014. The decline in the number of unemployed slowed due to a slightly smaller outflow into employment, which had been strong at the beginning of the year. In April average gross earnings rose slightly again (0.2%, seasonally adjusted) owing to renewed growth in the private sector, while average gross earnings in the public sector remained similar to those at the beginning of the year. In June consumer prices were down at the monthly level and year-on-year. In June prices declined mainly due to seasonally lower prices of footwear, clothing and fruit. They remained lower year-on-year particularly as a result of lower energy prices. After a long period of growth, prices of services, in particular communication services, also declined relative to the same period of last year. In the euro area prices were up 0.2% year-on-year in June. In recent months, the gap between core inflation in Slovenia and the euro area has been widening, to some extent due to a greater pass-through of energy prices into domestic prices, but mainly owing to the relatively weaker domestic demand in Slovenia than in the euro area. In the first quarter, cost competitiveness again improved more than, on average, in the euro area and the EU. The improvement reflected the nominal decline in the exchange rate of the euro and a further reduction in unit labour costs. This was due to further growth in labour productivity amid a concurrent modest increase in compensation of employees per employee. In most other euro area and EU countries unit labour costs declined less in real terms than in Slovenia. The relative position of Slovenia in the EU in terms of the increase in unit labour costs during the crisis has thus been improving since 2010 and has already come close to the level before the crisis (relative to the euro area, it is already slightly more favourable). The deleveraging of domestic non-banking sectors at Slovenian banks is gradually slowing. In the first five months of the year, loan volume fell by around EUR 320 m, a third less than in the same period of 2014. Debt repayments by enterprises declined, as enterprises have already repaid a significant part of their financial liabilities to banks in the past four years, while debt repayments by NFIs increased. Household borrowing rose, particularly new borrowing in the form of housing loans. Bank deleveraging abroad increased due to the repayment of the matured bond of one of the banks. Household and government deposits at domestic banks are rising at a slower pace. According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis, the general government deficit in the first four months (EUR 551 m) was EUR 155 m smaller year-on-year. The decline was a consequence of higher general government revenue, particularly revenue from taxes, while expenditure was similar to that in the same period of 2014. The primary budget balance (excluding interest payments) was positive (EUR 41 m) and thus more favourable than in the same period last year (minus EUR 126 m). ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment Short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicators indicate a further improvement in the euro area at the beginning of the second quarter. Production volume in manufacturing and construction output increased in April (by 0.3% each, seasonally adjusted). Turnover in retail trade was also up (by 0.7%) and reached its four-year high. The unemployment rate is gradually falling (to 11.2%). In the first quarter it was around 1 percentage point lower than at the beginning of 2013 when it peaked. The unemployment rate among young people has also declined in the euro area, to 22.7%, while it remains around 50% in Greece and Spain. Despite the improvement, the labour market situation is still unfavourable compared with the pre-crisis period. Although the Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area (ESI) deteriorated slightly in June, confidence indicators improved slightly in the second quarter (ESI, PMI, Ifo). Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in EMU and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) - Industrial production in manufacturing ----Construction output ----Turnover in retail trade -ESI (right axis) 110