.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o X X O Ü) O u 0) CD fN fO ^ C fO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 1 / Vol. XXI / 2015 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič; Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Miha Trošt Authors of Selected Topics: Branka Tavčar ((In)solvency in 2014), Valerija Korošec, PhD (Life satisfaction in 2014) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................17 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................19 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................20 Boxes Box 1: The ECB's new measures for stabilising the economy and achieving price stability in the euro area ...8 Box 2: Road and rail freight transport, Q3 2014................................................................................................................12 Box 3: Extraordinary year-end payments.........................................................................................................................15 Selected topics (In)solvency in 2014.........................................................................................................................................................27 Life satisfaction in 2014..................................................................................................................................................29 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................31 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 6 February 2015. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The weak recovery of economic activity in the euro area continues; in January, the exchange rate of the euro declined significantly; oil prices reached their six-year lows. Production volume in manufacturing and turnover in retail trade in the euro area rose again in November, while the value of construction put in place remained similar to that in previous months (seasonally adjusted). Confidence and business climate indicators still show a continuation of weak recovery. In January, the IMF lowered slightly its GDP growth forecasts for the euro area (to 1.2%) in light of the moderation of activity in some key partners. In order to stabilise the economy and meet its objective of price stability in the euro area, the ECB will start buying euro area government and corporate bonds in March (in the total amount of EUR 1,140 bn in the period through September 2016). The exchange rate of the euro against main world currencies plummeted in January in anticipation of these measures. The short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia that are based on foreign demand developments have remained unchanged in recent months, while the indicators relying on domestic demand are falling. After rising further in the third quarter, real merchandise exports and production volume in manufacturing remained unchanged in November and exceeded their levels of November 2013. Turnover in retail trade and construction activity have been dropping in recent months (since mid-year), and were down year-on-year in November. The labour market situation continues to improve; November's extraordinary payments were up year-on-year for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. The number of persons in employment rose again in November (seasonally adjusted), and was up 6,825 year-on-year in the first eleven months. It was higher than a year earlier in most activities, the improvement also being indicated by growth in employment activities leasing labour, mainly in the construction and manufacturing sectors, according to our estimate. With increased hiring, the number of registered unemployed fell again in January (seasonally adjusted). At the end of the month, it stood at 124,279, which is 4.3% less than a year earlier. Average gross earnings per employee in the first eleven months were up year-on-year in most private sector activities and in the entire public sector. The 13th month payments or Christmas bonuses were paid to slightly more employees than a year earlier, but the average amount of payments remained the same. After subdued growth in 2014, prices were down year-on-year in January (-0.5%). Deflation was mainly due to lower prices of energy and unprocessed food, but it was also attributable to lower prices in most other price groups. Prices of services were up (0.5 percentage points), but their contribution declined due to the fading of the base effect. Prices in the euro area were also lower year-on-year (-0.6%). Bank lending activity continues to decline. The volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors - excluding the transfer of claims to the BAMC (in the amount of EUR 1.6 bn) - declined by EUR 1.8 bn in 2014, by around one tenth less than in 2013. Lending to the government is rising, while the volume of corporate, NFI and household loans is falling. Foreign currency loans, the bulk being in Swiss francs, amounted to EUR 1.2 bn at the end of 2014, which is less than 5% of all loans (of which, more than two thirds are household loans). Their volume dropped by around 60% from its October 2008 peak as a result of deleveraging and conversion into euro loans. Household and government deposits rose in 2014, while banks continued to reduce liabilities to the rest of the world and the ECB. The general government deficit in the first eleven months of 2014 amounted to EUR 1.221 bn, down EUR 349.7 m from the same period of 2013. The lower deficit is attributable to higher tax revenues, one-off nontax revenues and higher inflows from the EU budget. General government expenditure was up year-on-year as a result of by around a third higher interest payments and capital expenditure. Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures including social contributions were close to the level of the same period of 2013, while other major categories were down year-on-year. ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment Short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicators in the euro area suggest a continuation of weak growth in the last quarter of 2014. Production volume in manufacturing and turnover in retail trade increased again in November, while the value of construction put in place remained similar to that in previous months (seasonally adjusted). Confidence and business climate indicators did not change much in the last quarter and still indicate a continuation of the weak recovery in the euro area. After deteriorating in most of 2014, expectations regarding the business climate in Germany improved in the last two months and indicate an increase in activity and business operations at the beginning of this year (Ifo). In January, the IMF cut its forecasts for world economic growth and world trade in 2015. Some advanced world economies (the euro area, Japan, China) recorded lower-than-expected growth in the second and third quarters of 2014. World trade growth also slowed towards the end of the year. Owing to the falling prices of commodities, lower growth was also recorded by some main exporters of oil and metals (Russia, Brazil). Expectations regarding global economic growth in 2015 thus deteriorated slightly, by 0.3 percentage points to 3.5%. The IMF forecasts 1.2% GDP growth in the euro area for this year, which is 0.2 percentage points less than anticipated in the autumn. Euro area growth will be underpinned by lower oil prices, additional monetary policy measures and depreciation of the euro, which is expected to boost exports. On the other hand, growth will be dragged down by slower economic activity in some major trading partners in the euro area. Economic growth in the US is expected to be higher this year than projected by the IMF in the autumn, the main factor being very favourable developments on the domestic market. Figure 1: IMF forecasts for world economic growth -World -Advanced countries ■ Emerging market and developing economies 4 \ / > 1 \ V / \ Credit standards for euro area enterprises improved in the last quarter of 2014, and loan demand increased. According to the ECB's Euro Area Lending Survey, credit standards for enterprises eased in the last quarter of 2014 but remained much tighter compared with the long-term average. The main factors in the improvement were higher bank liquidity and better access to funds on the market.1 Expectations of banks regarding the economic recovery in the euro area and in individual sectors were also higher than in the preceding quarter. In the largest euro area countries, credit standards for enterprises were eased in France, Italy and Spain but remained unchanged in Germany. Corporate demand for long-term loans also rose significantly, and so did, for the first time in a long period, demand for loans for investment. Increased demand was recorded by all large countries in the euro area except Italy. Credit standards on loans (consumer and housing loans) to households, which increased loan demand for the fourth quarter in a row, also improved in the last quarter of 2014. Amid the improvement in credit standards for enterprises and households, the net flow of loans in the euro area was positive in the fourth quarter of 2014 for the first time since the beginning of 2013, according to ECB data. Figure 2: The ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey Credit standards for loans to enterpr. over the past 3 months (left axis) -Credit standards for loans to enterpris. over the next 3 months (left axis) -Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) ------Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) 40 a Source: ECB. In anticipation of the ECB's new measures to spur the economy, the exchange rate of the euro plummeted against the main world currencies in January. The value of the euro against the US dollar, having declined since April, fell further in January (-5.8%) and hit a ten-year low. The euro also depreciated against the Japanese yen (-3.9%) and the British pound sterling (-2.7%). After the Swiss National Bank decided that it would no longer be pegging the Source: IMF. 1 According to data from the ECB Survey, 56% of the banks responding to the survey participated in the targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs). 8 6 2 Box 1: The ECB's new measures for stabilising the economy and achieving price stability in the euro area At its meeting in January, the ECB's Governing Council adopted additional measures to stem deflation, enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and facilitate credit provision to the economy. After in June 2014 the ECB cut its interest rates to the lowest levels since the introduction of the euro, it took further action in October to improve the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.1 In January this year, it decided to launch an expanded programme of buying euro area government and corporate bonds in the total amount of EUR 1,140 bn in March. The monthly purchases of government and corporate bonds combined will amount to EUR 60 bn. They are intended to be carried out until the end of September 2016, or until inflation reaches the ECB's medium-term inflation rate goal, which is below or close to 2%. The purchases of euro area bonds will be based on the Eurosystem national central banks' shares in the ECB's capital key; for countries under the assistance programme, additional criteria will apply. The ECB will only be buying government bonds with credit ratings of BBB or above and maturities between 2 and 30 years. In January, the ECB also lowered the interest rates on the additional targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROS), which be equal to the rate on the main refinancing operations prevailing at the time when each TLTR is carried out (0.05%). In 2014, two auctions took place, the latest in December when the participating banks (56% of all euro area banks) were allotted EUR 129.6 bn in order to increase lending to the non-financial private sector. Until June 2016 six more TLTROs will be carried out where more than 20% of the surveyed banks are planning to participate, while the majority are still undecided, according to January's lending survey of the ECB. Table 1: The ECB's capital allocation key and credit ratings, 2014 Country Capital allocation key (in %) Credit ratings by rating agencies S&P Moody's Fitch DE 25.6 AAA Aaa AAA FR 20.1 AA Aa1 AAA IT 17.5 BBB+ Baa2 BBB+ ES 12.6 BBB+ Baa2 BBB+ NL 5.7 AA+ Aaa AAA BE 3.5 AA Aa3 AAA EL 2.9 B Caa1 BBB+ AT 2.8 AA+ Aaa AAA PT 2.5 BBB+ Ba1 BB+ FI 1.8 AA+ Aaa AAA IR 1.6 A Baa1 A- SK 1.1 A A2 A+ LU 0.6 A- Baa1 A- SI 0.5 A- Ba1 BBB+ LT 0.4 A- Baa1 A- EE 0.3 AA- A1 A+ LU 0.3 AAA Aaa AAA CY 0.2 B+ B3 B- MT 0.1 BBB+ A3 A Source: ECB, Standard&Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, 2014. The ECB's measures should boost credit growth and stabilise inflationary expectations. Monetary policy measures are meant to stimulate credit growth by increasing liquidity in the banking system by government and corporate bond purchases. The terms of financing for companies and households should thus improve both domestically and in the euro area. All these measures should additionally reinforce domestic demand and enable stable price growth. When announcing the new measures, the ECB also stressed the importance of the continuation of structural reforms in individual euro area countries for the economic recovery. At the same time, the countries should also take advantage of the available fiscal space and design a fiscal policy mix more conducive to economic growth. Figure 3: Main reasons for participating in the most recent and the additional TLTROs ■ Attractive TLTRO conditions ■ Precautionary motive ■ To enhance the fulfilment of regulatory liquidity requirements I Reduction of uncertainty 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 71 TLTRO (December 2014) TLTRO (2015/2016) Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Figure 4: Use of TLTRO funds from the most recent and the additional TLTROs 70 40 30 ■ Refinancing «Granting loans «Purchasing assets TLTRO (December 2014) TLTRO (2015/2016) Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 1 Asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP), covered bond purchase programme (CBPP), targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs). 60 50 20 10 0 Swiss franc to the euro at the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.2, the value of the Swiss franc fell by around 20% and was 9.0% lower, on average, in January. Figure 5: Exchange rate of the euro against the main world currencies ■GBP -USD -CHF -JPY (right axis) Ji Ji Source: ECB. The yields of most euro area countries declined in January after the announcement of the ECB's new measures. The ECB's decision on euro area bond purchases was also reflected in the lower yields to maturity of the Slovenian euro bond, which in January recorded the lowest levels since Slovenia's entry into EMU (1.81%). The yields of other euro area members also fell to record lows. Figure 6: Yields to maturity of ten-year government bonds -Slovenia -Portugal -Spain -Italy 18 16 I14 Is 12 10 !d 8 i« 4 2 0 ■ Ireland ------Germany Austria Source: Bloomberg. Oil prices continued to fall in January, reaching their six-year lows. The dollar price of Brent oil plunged in January for the second consecutive month and was more than 55% lower than its June 2014 peak. Daily prices stopped falling in the middle of the month, stabilising at around USD 49 per barrel. According to the latest IMF data, December recorded a further decline in dollar prices of non-energy commodities, which dropped by 4.0% in 2014. Prices of industrial commodities fell the most, in particular prices of metals (-10.3%), but also food (-4.1%). Figure 7: Prices of a barrel of Brent crude -Price in EUR -Price in USD Ji Ji Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Table 2: Indicators related to the international environment average change, in %* 2014 XII 14 I 15 I 15/ XII 14 I 15/ I 14 Brent USD, per barrel 98.93 62.34 49.40 -20.8 -54.3 Brent EUR, per barrel 74.47 50.56 41.98 -17.0 -47.2 EUR/USD 1.239 1.233 1.164 -5.6 -14.5 3-month EURIBOR, in % 0.209 0.081 0.064 -1.7 -22.8 Source: EIA, ECB Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Economic developments in Slovenia The short-term indicators of economic activity that are based on foreign demand have remained basically unchanged after third quarter growth, while the indicators that rely primarily on domestic demand are falling. Real merchandise exports and production volume in manufacturing remained unchanged in November, but were higher than in the previous November. Turnover in retail trade and construction activity have been declining in recent months (since mid-year), and were down year-on-year in November. Figure 8: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia - Merchandise exports - Industrial production in manuf. ■Value of construction put in place ■ Turnover in retail trade ii ii ji Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Selected indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2013 XI 14/ X 14 XI 14/ XI 13 I-XI 14/ I-XI 13 Merchandise exports, real1 2.5 -0.33 7.0 6.6 Merchandise imports, real1 0.5 1.43 3.5 3.7 Services exports, nominal 5.6 -3.73 -0.2 2.4 Services imports, nominal 1.4 -5.63 -3.1 8.2 Industrial production, real -0.9 -0.53 3.04 2.04 -manufacturing -1.5 -0.13 5.24 3.84 Construction -value of construction put in place, reasl -2.6 -0.83 -11.2 20.6 Real turnover in retail trade -3.7 0.23 -0.4 0.1 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -0.3 -1.53 -0.5 2.9 which are more volatile at the monthly level than exports, were up in November after two months of decline. In the eleven months to November, real merchandise exports were up 6.6% while imports were up 3.7% in year-on-year terms. Figure 9: Merchandise trade - real -Merchandise exports -Merchandise imports Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments statistics, 3seasonally adjusted, ^working-day adjusted data. 1185 Si Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Nominal exports of services expanded in November after October's decline, and imports of services also rose for the second month in a row (seasonally adjusted). In the first eleven months of 2014, services exports were 3.6% higher than one year before, the largest contributions to growth being made by exports of transport and other business services. Imports of services were up 8.0% year-on-year in the same period, primarily on the back of strong imports of other business services. Imports of transport services were also higher, which is related to growth in merchandise imports. Household spending abroad also increased. In November, real merchandise exports remained similar to those at the end of the third quarter, while imports rose, seasonally adjusted.2 That exports remained at almost the same levels as in September was mainly the result of exports to the EU, which stagnated in October and November after a nominal increase of 5.4% in the third quarter. Year-on-year export growth stood at 7.0%, but its geographical structure has changed slightly in the past few months. The year-on-year increase in exports to Croatia, which made the largest contribution to total growth in the first half of 2014, has been slowing since July. In contrast, exports to France and Russia have been rising year-on-year since July and August respectively, after falling year-on-year in the first half of 2014; the year-on-year growth of exports to Italy has also strengthened significantly in recent months. Real merchandise imports, 2 The estimate of real merchandise exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while real imports have been estimated on the basis of nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. Figure 10: Trade in services - nominal -Exports of services -Imports of services is 450 350 115 80 Production volume in manufacturing did not increase in November and remained higher than at the beginning of the year. Higher production than at the start of the year was recorded by industries with a higher level of technology intensity, where growth came to a halt after the strong increase in June. Production movements in medium-low- and low-technology industries were less favourable in the second half of the year, their activity levels in the last months being similar to those at the beginning of 2014. The falling of production in medium-low-technology industries since the middle of the year otherwise moderated somewhat in the last months. Low-technology production has stagnated at low levels (seasonally adjusted) after falling in the middle of the year. In the first eleven months of 2014, production volume was up year-on-year in most industries. It continues to shrink in the textile industry, being also smaller than a year earlier in the sector of repair and installation of machinery and equipment. Capacity utilisation is improving: at the beginning of 2015, it was at almost the same levels as before the crisis for the first time since 2009, according to business trends data. Figure 11: Production volume in manufacturing industries by technology intensity - Low-technology industries - Medium-low-technology industries ------Medium-high- and high-technology industries -Total manufacturing ^^ m ^^ ^^ m Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity declined slightly again in November, and was also lower year-on-year. Activity in civil engineering has been falling since May after the surge at the end of 2013 and in early 2014. The strengthening was attributable to the completion of projects co-funded by the EU at the expiry of the financial perspective (municipal infrastructure projects in particular). Activity in non-residential building construction dropped again markedly in the last three months after the moderate strengthening in the summer months; activity in the construction of residential buildings declined notably again, with considerable monthly fluctuations. At the end of November, the stock of contracts in the construction sector was 11.9% lower than at the end of 2013. Having risen strongly in 2013 (by 35.5%), the stock of contracts in the construction sector declined by 11.9% in the eleven months to November. It dropped by 10.3% in civil engineering and by 17.8% in residential building construction, remaining roughly unchanged in the construction of non-residential buildings. Figure 12: Value of construction put in place 80 -Total •■Residential buildings - Non-residential buildings - Civil-engineering works 60 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. After third-quarter growth, turnover in the sale of motor vehicles and wholesale trade stagnated in the last two months, while turnover in retail sale decreased, seasonally adjusted. Turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles, which shrank in November, remained at a high level after increases in previous months. Amid higher sales of new Figure 13: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real ------ of which automotive fuels, real - ■ Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real — Wholesale trade, nom. 40 20 0 Box2: Road and rail freight transport, Q3 2014 Road freight transport increased further in the third quarter of 2014, but did not exceed the level of the same period of 2013 in the first three quarters as a whole (-1.1%). After a substantial decline early in the year, international transport is picking up (seasonally adjusted), but was still down year-on-year in the first three quarters on average (-2.2%) due to a significant first-quarter fall (-11.8% year-on-year). Closest to the 2013 levels was the volume of transport where goods are loaded in Slovenia and unloaded abroad. Although international transport declined, the volume of freight carried by Slovenian haulers for foreign clients increased.1 The volume of national transport, which had been strengthening steadily since the beginning of 2013 also as a result of increased activity in the construction sector,2 fell a little in the last quarter (seasonally adjusted). In the first three quarter of 2014, it was up 6.8% relative to the same period of 2013. After strong growth in 2013, rail freight transport remained at a high level in the third quarter of 2014. In the first three quarters, it was 10.6% higher than in the same period of 2013, the main driver of growth being higher exports of rail transport services.3 Figure 14: Road and rail freight transport ------Road - international (left axis) -Road - national (right axis) -Rail (right axis) 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 1 According to BoS data, exports of road transport services were up 8.6% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2014. 2 According to SURS data for 2013, a third of national transport is accounted for by transport of mining and quarrying products and non-metallic mineral products, i.e. products that are primarily used in construction. 3 Exports of rail transport services were up 36.7% according to BoS data. cars,3 it exceeded the 2013 level by a real 6.2% in the first eleven months of 2014. Turnover in wholesale trade, having stagnated at the level seen at the end of 2013 since July, was also higher than in 2013 (by 4.3%, nominally). Turnover in retail trade in the first eleven months of 2014 was similar to that in the same period of 2013. After third-quarter growth, it dropped slightly and approached to the lowest levels again. Within retail trade, turnover in the sale of automotive fuels went down after strong growth in July. Turnover was down in all segments of the sale of non-food products. After decreasing in previous quarters, turnover in food, beverages and tobacco products rose at the end of the year. In November, nominal turnover in market services (other than trade)4 shrank for the third consecutive month (seasonally adjusted), but remained higher year-on-year in most services. In the transportation sector, turnover fell strongly in warehousing and support activities for transportation, and there was no increase in land transport. Turnover in accommodation and food service activities stagnated in November after rising in previous months. The moderation of growth in the (until now) rapidly expanding turnover in employment activities slowed turnover growth in administrative and support service 3 The number of first registrations of new passenger cars increased by 3.7% year-on-year in the first eleven months; within that, registrations by legal entities rose by 9.4%, while registrations by natural persons declined (-11.7 %). Some indicators suggest that some of these cars were exported. 4 Activities from H to N (SCA 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics.. activities. Turnover in professional and technical activities contracted in the last months owing to a decline in architectural and engineering services, and was the only turnover among main services to be discernibly lower year-on-year in November. Turnover in information and communication services did not increase year-on-year in November, the main reason being a further decline in telecommunications. Figure 15: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) - Total - Transportation and storage (H) •Communication activ. (J) ■ Professional, technical activ. (M) - Administrative and support service activities (N) ■ Accommodation and food service activities (i) The wage bill, one of the household Income indicators, rose again in December (seasonally adjusted). In 2014, it was up 1.2% in real terms primarily on the back of higher average gross earnings in the private sector and an increase in the number of employed persons5 since the beginning of 2014. Transfers to individuals and households6 remained lower year-on-year in real terms (-0.5%) in the first eleven months of 2014. The largest decline was in transfers to the unemployed, while other social security transfers remained much higher compared with the same period of 2013. Deleveraging of Slovenian households at domestic banks eased in 2014. At the end of the year, the amount of housing loans was up 0.8% relative to the same period of 2013. Consumer and other loans remained down (-5.4%) but the decline in consumer loans at the end of December was more than half smaller than in December 2013. Household deposits at banks were up year-on-year (5.3%) for the first time since 2011. Among household consumption indicators, turnover in stores selling food has been growing in recent months, while durable goods consumption has been lower than in the middle of the year. Turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels was hovering at similarly low levels in the first eleven months of 2014. Turnover in the sale of food products has otherwise risen in recent months, while the consumption of durable goods has contracted slightly, seasonally adjusted. Turnover in the sale of furniture and household appliances nevertheless remained up year-on-year in the eleven months to November (5.3%). The number of first passenger car registrations by natural persons also declined in the Figure 16: Selected indicators of household income and consumption