.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) >< m CD fN fO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 5 / Vol. XIX / 2013 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Ana T. Selan, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Branka Tavčar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................15 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................17 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................19 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................21 Boxes Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q1 2013.......................................................................................................................9 Box 2: Concentration in the retail sale in non-specialised stores with food predominating ...........................11 Box 3: Labour force survey - Q1 2013..........................................................................................................................14 Box 4: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the programming period 2007-2013.......................................22 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................25 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight In the first quarter economic activity in the euro area declined for the sixth quarter in a row, and the European Commission and the OECD expect it to contract further in 2013 as a whole. In most euro area countries GDP declined even slightly more than predicted by the European Commission in the spring forecast. The uncertainty about the recovery was also stressed by the OECD, which lowered its forecasts for euro area economic growth at the end of May. A deterioration relative to the spring projections is also indicated by confidence indicators (ESI, PMI, Ifo), which suggest that the situation in the euro area will remain tight in the second quarter. The euro area economy is not predicted to recover before the second half of the year, and the forecasts continue to be associated with significant downside risks. The strong decline in economic activity in Slovenia continued in the first quarter and was again among the largest in the euro area. At the quarterly level the GDP decline was similar to those in the previous three quarters, but it deepened year-on-year (-4.8%). The key reason for the unfavourable movement is a further substantial year-on-year decline in final consumption, which was also reflected in a strong drop in net taxes on products. Household consumption shrank in particular, but government consumption was also down year-on-year. The decline in gross fixed capital formation was mitigated by larger purchases of equipment abroad due to investment in a major energy facility. Imports therefore also dropped less year-on-year, so that the contribution of net exports was smaller than in previous quarters despite stronger year-on-year growth in exports. The labour market conditions deteriorated again in the first quarter; the average gross earnings per employee declined further (seasonally adjusted). The number of employed persons according to the statistical register fell (-1.1%, seasonally adjusted) and remained down year-on-year, while the registered unemployment rate rose again (to 13.1 %, seasonally adjusted). Apart from lower economic activity, the decline was impacted by accelerated retirement at the end of last year, which translated into a significant increase in the number of economically inactive persons in the first quarter, according to our estimate, also as a result of the adopted pension reform. Registered unemployment rose again in April (121,332 persons) and was, on average, up 9.2% year-on-year in the first four months, primarily owing to a larger inflow of persons who had lost fixed-term employment and of first-time jobseekers. Private sector earnings have stagnated since the end of 2011, while earnings in the government sector maintain the level reduced in the middle of last year with the enforcement of the ZUJF. The year-on-year decline in the average gross earnings in the first quarter remained at 1.0%, having deepened in the private sector and particularly in the government sector. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in May, while their year-on-year growth dropped to 1.2%. Inflation movements remain moderate, which is expected, in view of the decline in economic activity, the deterioration in labour market conditions and the absence of major fluctuations in international prices. Both headline inflation and core inflation are falling relative to the previous year. Their monthly fluctuations are largely marked by seasonal factors, in May particularly by prices of food, clothing and footwear. Liquid fuel prices reduced monthly inflation by 0.2 p.p. Their contribution to year-on-year inflation was negligible (-0.1 p.p.). According to Eurostat's flash estimate, y-o-y inflation in the euro area was 1.4%. The situation in the Slovenian banking system remained tight in April. Lending activity declined again, mainly due to further corporate and NFI deleveraging; household deleveraging also continued, while government loans rose slightly. Loans to domestic non-banking sectors fell by as much as EUR 640 m in the first four months. Pressures related to maturing foreign liabilities have eased slightly in recent months, but liquidity pressure related to the pronounced outflow of household deposits have increased substantially. The maturity structure of deposits in the Slovenian banking system deteriorated further, while the volume of bad claims remains significant. The reduction of the general government deficit stopped in the first quarter after more than a year, mainly due to lower revenue as expenditure continues to fall. In the first quarter the deficit totalled EUR 717 m, up 1.3% from the same period of last year. Its reduction was interrupted primarily due to a significant fall in revenue (by EUR 198 m year-on-year), while expenditure continued to decrease (by EUR 189 m year-on-year). Revenue fell across all main tax categories. ■o £ Q) E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment In the first quarter economic activity in the euro area continued to decline, while growth in Russia and China only slowed and growth in the US strengthened further. According to Eurostat's estimate, euro area GDP fell (-0.2%, seasonally adjusted) for the sixth consecutive quarter and was down 1.1% year-on-year. This was largely a result of a further contraction of domestic demand, particularly gross fixed capital formation, while the contribution of net exports was positive due to a larger fall in imports than exports. Economic activity in some larger euro area countries (France, Italy and Spain) continued to decline, while GDP in Germany was only slightly above the level of the final quarter of 2012. Compared with the previous quarter, production volume in manufacturing and construction output declined further, while turnover in retail trade increased slightly but remained low. In most euro area countries GDP declined slightly more than predicted in the European Commission's spring forecast. The uncertainty about the recovery in the euro area economy was also stressed by the OECD, which lowered its growth forecasts for the euro area and Slovenia's trading partners at the end of May. A deterioration relative to the spring expectations is also indicated by confidence indicators (ESI, PMI, Ifo), which suggest that the situation in the euro area will remain tight in the second quarter. The quarterly growth of GDP slowed in Russia and China, but remained positive, while it accelerated in the US (0.6%), which is mainly attributable to higher private consumption and investment. Figure 1: GDP in main trading partners ■ Q2 2012 «03 2013 «04 2013 Q1 2013 -Q1 2013 forecast Table 1: Comparison of GDP growth forecasts by international institutions for 2013 and 2014 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 EMU Germany France Italy Austria Source: Eu rostat; fo reca st EC (May 2013). The decline in government bond yields continued in most euro area countries in May. In the majority of the most exposed countries the required yields dropped by 30 to 75 basis points on average in May, despite the increase upon the release of GDP data. Greece received the next tranche from the EFSF in the amount of EUR 7.5 bn 2013 2014 IMF Apr 13 EC May 13 CONS May 13 OECD May 13 IMF Apr 13 EC May 13 CONS May 13 OECD May 13 EMU -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 EU 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A 1.3 1.4 1.1 N/A DE 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.9 IT -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -1.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 AT 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.7 FR -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.8 UK 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 US 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.8 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2013), EC Forecast Spring 2013 (May 2013), Consesus Forecasts (May 2013), OECD Economic Outlook (May 2013). Note: N/A - not available. in May and June based on April's positive evaluation of progress made with respect to the criteria agreed with the Economic Commission, the ECB and IMF. Thus far Greece has received EUR 120 bn out of the total committed amount of EUR 144.6 bn. The required yields of government bonds of countries with the highest rating (AAA) remained around the same low levels as in previous months. Figure 2: Yields on ten-year government bonds 16 14 ^ 10 ^ 8 6 4 I ^^ I ^^ ^^ Ji Source:Bloomberg. Interbank interest rates in the euro area did not change significantly in May and remain very low. The 3-month EURIBOR rate has hovered around May's level (0.201%) since the beginning of the year, down 49 basis points year-on-year. The three-month USD and CHF LIBOR rates also remained roughly unchanged (0.28% and 0.02% respectively). At the beginning of May the ECB cut the key interest rate on the main refinancing operations by 0.25 p.p. to 0.5%, while the interest rates of other main central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ) were left unchanged and low. 2 0 The US dollar exchange rate has moved around USD 1.3 per euro since October 2012. The euro lost 0.3% of its value against the US dollar on average in May (USD 1.298 per euro). It also fell against the British pound sterling (by 0.2% to GBP 0.849 per euro), while rising against the Japanese yen (by 2.8% to JPY 131.13 per euro) and the Swiss franc (by 1.8% to CHF 1.242 per euro). The Japanese yen has lost around 30% of its value against the main world currencies (EUR, USD) in the last ten months, primarily on account of measures taken by Japan's central bank. After falling for two months, oil prices rose slightly in May, while non-energy commodity prices declined according to provisional data. The average price of Brent crude was up 0.5% to USD 102.70 a barrel in May (expressed in EUR, by 0.6% to EUR 79.1 a barrel). Dollar prices of oil declined by 6.6% year-on-year, euro prices by 8.2%. According to the most recent IMF figures, dollar prices of non-energy commodities fell again in April, most notably prices of metals (-3.7%). Food prices remained roughly the same as in previous months. Based on provisional data, industrial goods prices are estimated to have declined further in May, particularly metal prices. Figure 3: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) - Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic developments in Slovenia Real merchandise exports increased slightly in the first quarter, as did real imports (seasonally adjusted), as a result of larger purchases of investment equipment.1 Real exports in the first quarter were also larger year-on-year (1.1%). According to our estimate, this was mainly attributable to further growth in exports of the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and other transport vehicles, while among the more important industries, exports of motor vehicles and of the manufacture of metals and rubber and plastic products lag the most behind the level recorded in the same period a year before. Exports to the euro area and former Yugoslav countries remained lower Figure 4: Merchandise trade - real 4,800 a a Source: SURS. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2012 III 13/ II 13 III 13/ III 12 I-III 13/ I-III 12 Exports1 1.7 15.0 0.7 2.3 -goods 0.9 9.9 -2.6 1.0 -services 5.3 40.6 16.3 8.8 Imports1 -2.0 6.1 -6.1 -0.8 -goods -2.3 4.7 -7.5 -1.3 -services -0.1 16.1 4.4 2.4 Industrial production -1.2 -4.72 -3.33 -0.83 -manufacturing -2.4 -5.32 -5.73 -2.03 Construction -value of construction put in place -16.8 -3.92 -31.73 -24.03 Real turnover in retail trade -2.3 -1.22 -5.93 -5.13 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -2.9 -1.82 -4.13 -2.23 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. 1 According to the National Accounts Statistics. Nominal data on the structure of merchandise trade according to the external trade statistics are available for the first two months of the year. Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q1 2013 Economic activity continued to decline strongly in the first quarter. GDP was down 4.8% year-on-year. The quarterly decline in GDP (-0.7%, seasonally adjusted) was similar to those in the previous three quarters, while the year-on-year decline was slightly larger due to the base effect. The key reason for the unfavourable movement is a further substantial year-on-year fall in final consumption, which was also reflected in a strong drop in net taxes on products. Household consumption shrank in particular (-5.4%), as had already been indicated by short-term indicators. Namely, the average gross earnings per employee and expenditure on social transfers were down again year-on-year in the first quarter, the decline in employed persons according to the statistical register deepened and the confidence indicator remained lower than a year earlier. Given the continuation of fiscal consolidation, government consumption was also down again compared with the same period last year (-2.0%). Gross fixed capital formation fell less than in previous quarters (-2.0%) despite a further slump in construction investment. This was mainly a consequence of larger purchases of equipment abroad related to investment in an energy facility. The latter was reflected in a smaller year-on-year decline in imports (-1.8%) and, in turn, a smaller contribution of net exports than in previous quarters, although the year-on-year growth of exports (1.8%) picked up. Changes in inventories and valuables once again made a significant contribution to the decline in GDP (-3.7 p.p.). The year-on-year decline in value added deepened in the first quarter, particularly in sectors that mainly focus on the domestic market. It remained the most pronounced in the construction sector (-16.9%), being also larger than in previous quarters in manufacturing (-3.0%). Among market services, the year-on-year decline in value added deepened the most in the trade sectors, in accommodation and food service activities and in professional, scientific, technical and other business activities, while the year-on-year decline in financial-insurance activities remained deep, which is another sign of very weak domestic consumption. Value added also fell again in public service activities. Figure 5: GDP in Slovenia and its main trading partners —•—Slovenia -Germany ---------France Figure 6: GDP expenditure structure, Slovenia 104 " 100 C^ 98 96 92 ro 90 ----Italy - Austria Croatia ■ Private consumption ■ Gross fixed capital formation I Exports of goods and services -Real GDP growth (right axis) 20 ^^■Government consumption ■jfxwCh. in inventories and valuables ^^■Imports of goods and services aaaaaaaaa Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 0 -4 O 4 ej -6 ä^ -8 -10 -12 a a Source: SURS. year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth of exports to other countries strengthened further. Real merchandise imports remained down on the same period last year (-2.0%), despite growth, but their year-on-year decline was much smaller than in previous quarters. According to our estimate, this is mainly attributable to the year-on-year increase in imports of investment goods related to imports of equipment in the energy sector, and is not a sign of a visible recovery in domestic demand. Nominal growth in services exports picked up in the first quarter, while imports declined after last year's growth (seasonally adjusted).2 In the first quarter nominal exports 2 According to the balance of payments statistics. of services rose (5.3%) due to significantly larger exports of intermediation services and licences, patents and copyrights in March. After declining in the second half of last year, exports of transport services stagnated, while exports of travel services dropped. Imports of services fell in the first quarter (-2.5%); imports of transport services, other business services and the group of other services3 declined, while imports of travel rose again. According to original data, exports of services were up 8.8% and imports up 2.4% on the same quarter last year. 3 When adjusting data for seasonal effects, we placed communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. Together, they account for just over a tenth of services exports and almost a third of services imports. 102 94 88 Figure 7:Trade in services - nominal 1,500 1,400 1,300 E cc 03 1,200 1,100 1,000 a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. After the decline in the second half of last year, manufacturing output increased in the first quarter. Growth was again mainly contributed by more technology intensive industries and after the falling in the two quarters before, medium-low-tech industries. In the last two years the volume of low-tech production has been constantly declining, but this time the fall was less pronounced (seasonally adjusted). Regardless of the increase in the first quarter, production volume remained lower year-on-year in most industries. It was down in all low-technology industries (-10.3% on average, according to original data), most medium-low-technology industries (except the metal industry) and, among the industries of higher technology intensity, in the manufacture of other machinery and equipment, and in the manufacture of Figure 8: Production volume in manufacturing industries according to technology intensity 110 105 1T100 95 iS T3 90 ^^ 85 '■TD 80 C O is 75 70 65 ■ Low-technology Industries - Medium-low-technology industries ■ Medium-high and high-technology industries - Manufacturing, total O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. transport vehicles. Alongside the low-technology wood-processing industry, the latter recorded the largest year-on-year decline (over 20%). Slovenia remains among the EU Member States where the production levels lag more than a tenth behind those in 2008. In the first quarter manufacturing output increased, or remained at the previous quarter's level, in most other EU Member States. The 2008 production level was exceeded only in some new Member States, while Slovenia's gap was wider than in the EU-27 overall. Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia and in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2013 120 115 110 105 100 CM 95 -Ö !Z IB 90 85 80 o ^ 75 70 65 1 i_ --IT X - 1— uu Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: * data for 2 months. Construction activity dropped again in the first quarter. After increasing at the end of 2012, the value of construction put in place fell early this year, in March also due to unfavourable weather conditions. The value of construction put in place was thus down 6.4% in the first quarter, being as much as 24.0% lower than in the same period last year. In the last year it has dropped the most in residential construction and the least in civil engineering. The value of stock of contracts in the construction sector increased at the beginning of this year. At the end of the first quarter it was up 5.7% year-on-year (the average decline in 2012 was 14.9%). The indicator of total orders according to business trends in construction also rose at the beginning of this year. The strengthening of contracts and orders results from the pick-up in civil engineering activity, which we estimate is related to government investment. In the first quarter 678 building permits were issued for flats, 8.0% more than in the same period last year. Having dropped by more than half in recent years, the number of the building permits issued for flats has increased slightly since mid-2012. Figure 10: Value of construction put in place 225 200 Total Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Civil-engineering works a a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Turnover in all trade sectors declined in the first quarter (seasonally adjusted), being much loweryear-on-year. After the increase in the last quarter of 2012, turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles fell again and was 7.3 lower year-on-year in real terms due to declining sales of new cars.4 Real turnover in retail trade was also down, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of the crisis, as was nominal turnover in wholesale trade, which dropped to the value recorded at the beginning of 2011. Figure 11: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real of which Automotive fuels, real ■ Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real - Wholesale trade, nom. a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Box 2: Concentration in the retail sale in non-specialised stores with food predominating The market concentration in stores that mainly sell food, which is typically high in Slovenia, has been decreasing in recent years, particularly due to increased sales in discount stores. The market concentration in non-specialised stores that mainly sell food (hypermarkets, markets, discount stores, etc.)1 has been increasing since 2000 as a result of failure of small companies, their mergers or takeovers by larger companies. After the low figures in 2000, the concentration ratio in this sector as measured by the Hirschman-Herfindahl index/HHI exceeded the upper limit (1,800) in 2005, reaching the highest level in 2006. In the following six years the ratio was declining, although it was still high in 2012. The decline in the concentration level over the past six years is mainly attributable to increased sales in foreign discount stores, which entered the Slovenian market in 2005 and 2007. By broadening their business network and changing the buying behaviour of Slovenian consumers during the economic crisis, the foreign discount stores combined generated 16.4% of the total revenue from sales in this sector in 2012 (6.5% in 2007 and 13.3% in 2011). The share of the largest company in the total revenues has been falling,2 while the shares of the other two largest companies have remained roughly unchanged in the last years, accounting for around a third of the total revenues in the sector. Figure 12: Concentration indices for the retail sale in non-specialised stores with food predominating -HHI 4,000 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 I Share of the three largest companies in net sales revenues on the domestic market (right axis) 100 90 80 70 60 50 ^ 40 30 20 10 0 Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD. 4 The total number of first passenger car registrations was down 10.8% year-on-year in the first quarter. 1 Companies registered under SCA 47.110. 2 Until 2012 the share declined by 15 p.p. from the peak value in 2006, when the company generated more than half of the total revenue of this sector. 75 50 25 0 All retail trade sectors recorded lower turnoveryear-on-year. Turnover in the sale of automotive fuels remained at the level of the final quarter of 2012. Given the decline in the quantity of automotive fuels sold, which was a result of lower demand and the excise policy, it was a tenth lower year-on-year. Turnover in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco products was also down relative to the same period last year, dropping for the fifth year in a row. The decline in turnover in the retail sale of food products (in hypermarkets, markets, discount stores, etc.) was a result of continued consumer caution, changes in buying behaviour5 and a further shift to discount stores (see more in Box 2). Lower real household income, negative developments on the labour market and poor prospects for the future continue to show in lower turnover in the sale of non-food products. It fell most notably in the sale of furniture and construction material, and in specialised stores selling computer and telecommunication equipment, books, sports equipment and toys, being almost a half and a third lower in the first quarter, respectively, than in 2008 as a whole. Figure 13: Turnover in the sale of non-food products -Sale of medical and cosmetic products — Sale of textiles, clothing and footwear ---Sale of furniture, construction material -Sale of household appliances, audio and video recordings ------Sale of computer, telecom. equipment, books and sports equip. 115 110 105 Ji 100 o 95 90 85 80 ■Ö J^ 75 70 o is 65 60 55 50 O O O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Nominal turnover in most market services (other than trade)^ rose in the first quarter (seasonally adjusted), but in almost all of them it was down slightly year-on-year. Only turnover in accommodation and food service activities continued to fall, given the substantial decline in the number of tourist overnight stays. In all other market services turnover increased, but remained above the pre-crisis year 2008 only in transportation and storage activities. Within the information-communication services, turnover in computer programming has been fluctuating just below the pre-crisis level in the last year and a half, while turnover in telecommunication services 5 Switching from name brands to lower-priced store brands, purchasing products on sale and promotion, shopping in several stores. 6 Activities from H to N (SCA 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. has declined slightly in the last two years, mainly due to the deteriorated performance of the main operator.7 Among professional-technical services, turnover is stagnating just below the 2008 level in legal-accounting services, while engineering activities8 continue to be impacted by weak activity in the construction sector. Looking at all services, turnover was up year-on-year only in employment services,9 which represent one of the Figure 14: Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade) - Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activities (J) -----Professional, technical activities (M) -----Accommodation and food service activities (I) O O O O Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 15: Business trends -Economic sentiment -----Retail trade -Construction 40 - Manufacturing - Service activ. Consumers Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 7 According to data from the Annual Report, Telekom Slovenije recorded 3.5% lower sales revenues year-on-year (the entire sector 0.5% lower). 8 In the first quarter, turnover in these services was otherwise 24% below the 2008 average, but only 2.5% lower than in the same period last year, which could be the first sign of improvement in the construction sector. 9 They are the most important category of other business activities (N), having generated half of all value added in these activities in 2011, according to SURS data. types of labour market flexibility and are strengthening in the fairly uncertain economic situation. Economic sentiment, which has improved substantially in recent months, remained unchanged in May. Confidence improved in manufacturing and retail trade, where the confidence indicator is the least negative. Confidence in the construction sector improved again, while the confidence indicator in service activities and consumer confidence indicator deteriorated. The lowest values were recorded for the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in construction. Labour market Labour market conditions deteriorated further in the first quarter. The number of employed persons according to the statistical register10 declined by 1.1%, seasonally adjusted, and was down 3.3% year-on-year. Once again Figure 16: Persons in formal employment by activity >Q1 2012 «02 2012 103 2012 104 2012 101 2013 Manufacturing Construction Market services Public services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Persons in formal employment by activity formal employment declined relatively the most in the construction sector, being also lower in manufacturing and market services, and for the third consecutive quarter, in public services. The registered unemployment rate increased again, by 0.7 p.p. to 13.1 % seasonally adjusted. After the pronounced increase at the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013, the number of registered unemployed continued to rise in April (0.8% seasonally adjusted; 11.2% year-on-year). Overall 121,332 persons were registered as unemployed at the end of April. In the first four months of the year 6,798 persons registered anew, 21.1% more than in the same period last year, which is mainly the result of a larger inflow of those who lost their fixed-term employment (4,602 persons or 27.1%). The number Table 4: Indicators of labour market trends in % 2012 III 13/ II 13 III 13/ III 12 I-III 13/ I-III 12 Labour force -1.5 0.0 -1.4 -1.5 Persons in formal employment -1.7 -0.2' -3.0 -2.9 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -1.6 0.1 -3.6 -3.4 Registered unemployed -0.5 1.1' 10.6 8.5 Average nominal gross wage 0.1 0.4^ -1.0 -1.0 - private sector 0.5 2.3^ -0.4 -0.2 - public sector -0.9 0.4^ -1.9 -2.4 -of which general government -2.2 0.1' -3.6 -3.8 2012 III 12 II 13 III 13 Rate of registered unemployment. in %. seasonally adjusted 12.0 11.8 13.1 13.2 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,525.47 1,535.11 1,497.55 1,520.08 Private sector (in EUR) 1,395.84 1,405.88 1,373.20 1,400.93 Public sector (in EUR) 1,762.88 1,770.25 1,722.63 1,736.33 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,761.15 1,786.26 1,719.24 1,721.15 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by II Note: 1seasonally adjusted. Number in '000 Change in Number 2012 III 12 II 13 III 13 2012/ 2011 III 13/ II 13 III 13/ III 12 I-III 13/ I-III 12 Manufacturing 182.9 184.6 177.8 177.9 -1,919 63 -6778 -6,781 Construction 59.8 61.0 51.8 52.4 -8,047 604 -8,693 -8,451 Market services 338.4 340.7 332.0 332.2 -3,805 242 -8,534 -8,558 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 107.8 108.6 105.5 105.5 -1,848 -52 -3,141 -3,079 Public services 171.6 172.4 170.1 170.2 1,438 100 -2,145 -2,109 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 50.7 50.9 49.4 49.2 -650 -118 -1,650 -1,649 Education 65.5 66.0 65.5 65.7 778 156 -386 -435 Human health and social work activities 55.4 55.4 55.3 55.3 1,311 62 -109 -26 Other 57.3 55.7 57.2 57.4 -1,632 200 1,723 1,856 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 0 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. Box 3: Labour force survey - Q1 2013 The Labour Force Survey figures also show a strong deterioration on the labour market at the beginning of this year. In the first quarter the number of employed persons declined by 34,000 persons or 1.7% (seasonally adjusted). Apart from lower economic activity, this significant decline was impacted by accelerated retirement at the end of last year, which translated into a substantial increase in the number of economically inactive persons in the first quarter of this year (21,000 more than in the last quarter of 2012). The decline in the number of employed persons is thus also a result of the adopted pension reform, according to our estimate. Similar developments were also recorded at the beginning of 2011, under the influence of the expected pension reform which was then rejected at the referendum (in the first quarter of 2011 the number of employed persons declined by 35,000 relative to the previous quarter, while the number of inactive persons was up by 29,000). Unemployment increased by 14,000 persons or 11.4% (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter this year. The unemployment rate rose again (by 1.1 p.p. to 10.7%, seasonally adjusted), being the highest since 1993.1 Figure 17: Employed and inactive persons according to the Labour Force Survey -----LFS employed -----LFS inactive 1,000 a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 18: Unemployment rate 10 6 a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 1 When the survey was conducted for the first time. Figure 19: Employed and registered unemployed persons -Employed according to the statistical register (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) .4.....i.....\ .....i.....i.. \ ! M 1 .....i.....{■.....1..... ......i.....f.....1..... ••••]..........I...... .....f""4.....t..... 1 1 1 .....f-yf-'i--''T"^-....,«——• - ........- •■» • .....I..... .....i.....!.....t.....!.....i.....|-"i.....1.....1 Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. 230 210 170 150 12 130 I 110 90 70 50 of first-time jobseekers also increased (1,750 persons or 57.9%), among them particularly of young people who can't find employment as labour market conditions continue to tighten. The total outflow from the register in this period was somewhat smaller year-on-year (by 143 persons or 0.4%). Fewer persons were deregistered for breaches of regulations (965 or 15.4%), and there were fewer transitions into inactivity (506 persons or 12.0%). The average gross earnings per employee, which have been declining in the last year, dropped further in the first quarter (seasonally adjusted). They remained roughly unchanged in the private sector11 and in the government sector, while they rose in the public sector as a whole due to growth in public corporations (4.4%, seasonally adjusted). Private sector earnings have been stagnant since the end of 11 As of June 2012, we only comment on data on wages in the private sector and public sector (within the latter, particularly in the general government), and only exceptionally on wages in activities of the private sector and in public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics - Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sector. 12 8 2 0 Table 5: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2012 III 2013 2012/2011 III 13/ II 13 III 13/ III 12 I-III 13/ I-III 12 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,463.64 1,467.46 0.8 2.0 -0.1 0.0 Industry (B-E) 1,444.29 1,468.17 2.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 - of which manufacturing 1,397.25 1,419.06 2.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 Construction 1,205.65 1,171.19 -2.5 0.5 -2.9 -2.4 Traditional services (G-I) 1,354.04 1,345.81 0.3 2.2 0.0 -0.6 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,713.36 1,705.09 -0.3 2.9 -2.0 -1.9 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,710.91 1,675.16 -2.2 0.2 -3.4 -3.6 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,752.03 1,715.34 -1.8 -0.5 -2.6 -2.4 - Education 1,676.80 1,638.44 -3.3 0.5 -5.4 -5.4 - Human health and social work activities 1,712.37 1,682.26 -1.3 0.6 -1.6 -2.3 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 2011,12 while government sector earnings remain at the reduced level recorded upon the enforcement of the ZUJF in the middle of last year. The year-on-year decline in the average gross earnings in the first quarter remained at 1.0%, having deepened again in the private sector and particularly in the government sector (-0.2% and -3.8% respectively). The average gross earnings were higher only in public corporations13 (0.8%) and, among activities, only in industry, while they declined in all service activities. Figure 20: Average gross earnings per employee ■ Total Private sector - Public sector --- -of which government sector --------- -of which public corporations oi 3 a a Source: SURS. Prices Year-on-year inflation declined to 1.2% in May; the otherwise modest monthly growth of prices was marked primarily by seasonal factors. The seasonally higher prices of food (fruits and vegetables), clothing and footwear 12 The growth rates in 2010 and 2011 were impacted by the increase in the minimum wage and changes in employment structure. 13 Of which only in public non-financial corporations (1.0%); in public financial corporations (-1.4%). contributed 0.5 p.p. to inflation in May (0.3%); the contribution of liquid fuel prices, which dropped again, was negative (-0.2 p.p.). Year-on-year inflation declined by 0.3 p.p. compared with the previous month. Inflation in the euro area stood at 1.4%, according to Eurostat's provisional data. Figure 21: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 8 7 4 Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation Source: Eurostat The first four months of the year recorded slower price growth (1.0%) than the same period last year (2.2%). Core inflation also remained low, given the subdued economic activity, deteriorated labour market conditions and the absence of one-off shocks. The contribution of energy prices to inflation was 0.5 p.p., half lower than in the same period last year. It has declined in recent months, mainly due to lower euro prices of oil on world markets. These also impacted the movement of year-on-year inflation in the euro area (1.2%), which declined in April, as did inflation in Slovenia. Alongside energy prices, price growth was also affected by higher prices of non-processed food (0.4 p.p.), which otherwise increased less than in the same 6 5 3 2 0 Figure 22: Breakdown of y-o-y inflation 8 7 6 5 1= ^3 i;; 2 -1 -2 Other Services Fuels and energy Food Growth in industrial producer prices remained moderate. Domestic producer prices on the domestic market remained unchanged relative to the previous month, Figure 23: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic) -----Mfr.of basic metals, fabric. metal prod.; exc. mach.,equip. (domestic) ---Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) -PPI (foreign) c o o o C ^^ ^^ ^^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. period last year, and higher prices of public utility services (0.2 p.p.) as a result of changes in their regulation.14 The long-term inflation dynamics at home and in the euro area remained moderate, which is reflected in lower core inflation. Table 6: Breakdown of the HICP into sub-groups - April 2013 20 16 12 1i 4 -4 -8 -12 -16 ......i......4......1......1-.....j......M ■ ^'-i-.....;> -.i......f" 4.....4- .'•A c Ž5 c £2 J5 ^^ J5 ^^ Source: SURS. Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 1.0 100.0 1.0 0.5 100.0 0.5 Goods 1.0 65.7 0.7 0.8 57.7 0.5 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0.4 16.1 0.1 0.8 12.0 0.1 Non-processed food 6.1 7.4 0.5 1.8 7.3 0.1 Non-energy industrial goods -0.5 27.9 -0.1 0.7 27.4 0.2 Durables -0.8 9.7 -0.1 -0.1 8.8 0.0 Non-durables -0.4 8.8 0.0 0.6 8.0 0.0 Semi-durables 0.5 9.4 0.0 2.1 10.5 0.2 Energy 2.5 14.4 0.4 0.9 11.0 0.1 Electricity for households 11.3 2.7 0.3 2.7 2.6 0.1 Natural gas 2.8 1.1 0.0 -0.1 1.8 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating -1.6 1.5 0.0 -2.4 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels 1.6 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 District heating -0.1 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 0.5 7.4 0.0 0.7 5.0 0.0 Services 0.8 34.3 0.3 -0.1 42.3 0.0 Services - dwellings 5.2 3.0 0.2 0.8 10.3 0.1 Services - transport 0.6 5.8 0.0 0.6 7.2 0.0 Services - communications -0.5 3.5 0.0 -2.3 3.1 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 0.4 13.9 0.1 -0.9 14.7 -0.1 Services - other services 0.6 8.1 0.0 0.1 7.1 0.0 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 0.3 78.2 0.2 0.3 81.7 0.2 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification 14 According to the Decree on pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection, passed at the beginning of the year, prices of public utility services are now determined by the market, but the government has retained control over possible excessive growth. while domestic producer prices on foreign markets rose only slightly (0.2%). Year-on-year price growth on the domestic market eased (by 0.5 p.p.) and remained marked by higher prices in the manufacture of food products (3.3%) and lower prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-4.0%); these have reached the lowest values in the last six months. In addition to higher prices in the manufacture of transport vehicles (3.9%), the latter also contributed to the year-on-year growth on foreign markets (0.5%). The year-on-year decline in import prices deepened further in April (by 0.3p.p. to -0.6%). Import prices continue to decline this year (-1.2%), which is in addition to the moderation of growth in the manufacture of food products (3.1%) mainly due to a further decline of prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-4.9%). A fter three years of impro vement, the price competitiveness of the economy deteriorated year-on-year in the first quarter. Having increased steadily at the monthly level since September 2012 owing to the strengthening of the euro against the currencies of Slovenia's main trading partners,15 the nominal effective exchange rate was also up year-on-year in the first quarter. At the same time, relative16 prices also continued to grow year-on-year. The real effective exchange rate17 in the first quarter was therefore higher year-on-year (0.8%) after three years of constant decline. Owing to higher growth in relative prices, also as a result of one-off factors,18 Slovenia was among euro area countries with the largest losses in price competitiveness (in 6'h place). However, the strengthening of the nominal effective exchange rate was among the lowest19 due to the structure of its external trade. Figure 24: Real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP -REER defl. HICP -NEER .....Relat. HICP 5 # 2 ■r......r......r......r......r......r i.......i.......i.......i.......i......7....... -r......r......r......r......r......r Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 15 In particular against the JPY, but also against the GBP, USD and HUF. 16 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. 17 As measured by the HICP. 18 Higher prices of school meals (due to the abolition of the subsidy) and increased annual road user charges (see SEM 04/13, Prices). Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments was in surplus again in the first quarter (EUR 221.2 m, against EUR 28.0 m in the same period last year). The year-on-year widening of the surplus in current transactions was largely a consequence of a larger surplus in external trade. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes declined, while the balance of current transfers deteriorated. In the first quarter the balance of trade recorded a surplus; the deficit in merchandise trade was lower again year-on-year, while the surplus in services trade was higher. The deficit in merchandise trade has been declining for sixth quarters primarily due to quantity factors. Because of the year-on-year real growth in merchandise exports (1.1%) and a decline in imports (-2.0%), quantity factors had a larger effect on the decline in the deficit in merchandise trade than in the same period last year. The terms of trade improved slightly (0.2%). The year-on-year widening of the surplus in services trade was mainly attributable to a larger surplus in trade in intermediation and other services related to trade,20 and a smaller deficit in trade in licences, patents and copyrights. The surpluses in trade in travel and transport services narrowed. Figure 25: Contribution of quantity and price effects to the merchandise trade balance ^^■Terms of trade ^HQuantity e^ect ^^■Other -Change in nominal balance 800 - 400 i......f -200 ■4......Š-- a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The year-on-year narrowing of the factor income deficit in the first quarter was a consequence of a smaller deficit in income from capital. Income from other investment fell the most year-on-year. Net interest payments of the private sector declined, as domestic commercial banks continued to repay long-term loans. As a result of the borrowing from the Eurosystem, net interest receipts were 19 As Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro area, the appreciation of the euro has a smaller impact on the nominal effective exchange rate, and vice versa. 20 All payments related to monetary intermediation, commission for other financial intermediation services and other costs. 0 down relative to the same period last year despite the low interest rate on the main refinancing operations. The smaller deficit in income from direct investment was also attributable to lower interest payments paid by Slovenian companies to foreign direct investors. Net outflows from equity, accounting for the largest share in the capital income structure, maintained the level recorded in the comparable period last year. Net payments of interest on portfolio investment are increasing due to government borrowing and the deterioration of lending conditions. Figure 26: Income from capital Portfolio investment Other investment 200 I Direct investment - Total E -100 -200 -400 a a Source: BS. The deficit in the balance of current transfers in the first quarter was wider year-on-year largely as a result of the private sector deficit (insurance). As a result of the payments of contributions and taxes abroad, the deficit of the government sector was only slightly larger, although Slovenia's net budgetary position towards the EU budget increased by a third relative to the same period last year. In the first quarter international financial transactions21 recorded a large net outflow of other investment and a net inflow of portfolio investment, while direct investment flows remain modest. International financial transactions saw a net outflow again in the first quarter (in the amount of EUR 939.8 m, compared with a net inflow of EUR 91.3 m in the same period last year). Other investment posted a net outflow of EUR 1,031.1 m in the first quarter, mainly on the back of an increase in currency and deposits of banks and other sectors in bank accounts abroad. Short-term commercial crediting of goods and services exports was also stronger. Because of a decline in domestic lending activity, other sectors (mainly enterprises) borrowed abroad, in the amount of EUR 579.7 m. The Bank of Slovenia increased its debt against the Eurosystem, while commercial banks continued to deleverage. Portfolio investment registered a net inflow in the first quarter (EUR 133.8 m); non-residents made net purchases of the private sector's securities, while the capital inflow also increased due to the sale of a portion of long-term investments of the Bank of Slovenia (bonds). The general government sector repaid some of its liabilities to nonresident portfolio investors. Direct investment flows remained weak. This time direct investment recorded a net outflow of EUR 13.7 m. Residents'investments were higher (EUR 83.4 m) than investments by non-residents (EUR 69.7 m); in both cases equity capital predominated. Figure 27: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment -Net financial flow 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 ^ 1,000 500 ^^ 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 ^ a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Slovenia's net external debt totalled EUR 13.1 bn at the end of March (37.2 % of the estimated GDP), down EUR 1.2 bn from December 2012. Gross external claims in debt instruments reached EUR 27.4 bn at the end of March (77.7% of GDP), being up EUR 0.9 bn from December 2012. Figure 28: Slovenia's net external debt Bank of Slovenia Government sector ■ Private sector -Net external debt 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 ^ 10,000 cc 7,500 j= 5,000 2,500 0 -2,500 -5,000 1 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. O o Source: BS. All sectors contributed to the increase, particularly short-term claims of banks and other sectors (currency, deposits and short-term loans). Gross external debt amounted to EUR 40.5 bn at the end of March (114.9% of GDP), EUR 0.3 bn less than in December 2012. It increased mainly due to the Bank of Slovenia's liabilities to the Eurosystem and partly as a result of loans of other sectors. The external debts of the government sector and commercial banks declined. Table 7: Balance of payments I-III 13, v mio EUR Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-iIi 12 Current account 7,071.8 6,850.7 221.2 28.0 - Trade balance (FOB) 5,381.5 5,426.4 -44.9 -166.5 - Services 1.211.0 726.5 484.5 404.1 - Income 156.7 319.3 -162.6 -179.2 Current transfers 322.5 378.3 -55.8 -30.3 Capital and financial account 1,065.3 -1,932.5 -867.2 136.2 - Capital account 65.2 -59.4 5.8 6.2 - Capital transfers 65.0 -59.1 5.9 6.2 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 - Financial account 1,000.1 -1,873.1 -873.0 130.0 - Direct investment 69.7 -83.4 -13.7 189.1 - Portfolio investment 269.8 -136.0 133.8 -932.8 - Financial derivates 0.0 -28.8 -28.8 -22.7 - Other investment 593.7 -1,624.8 -1,031.1 857.7 - Assets 24.6 -1,277.1 -1,252.5 -1,466.5 - Liabilities 569.1 -347.8 221.4 2,324.2 - Reserve assets 66.9 0.0 66.9 38.7 Net errors and omissions 646.0 0.0 646.0 -164.2 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Financial markets The situation in the Slovenian banking system remains tight. In April the volume of loans to non-banking sectors declined more than in March, by around EUR 190 m. April's decline was again mainly due to further corporate and NFI deleveraging, although households also continued to gradually repay their debts, while government loans rose slightly. In the first four months the volume of loans to non-banking sectors had already dropped by close to EUR 640 m, in contrast to the same period last year when it was still rising, albeit only due to stronger government borrowing, as all other sectors' loans declined. Pressures related to maturing foreign liabilities have eased slightly in recent months, but liquidity pressures resulting from the pronounced outflow of household deposits increased substantially. The maturity structure of deposits in the Slovenian banking system deteriorated further, while the volume of bad claims was slightly lower. In the last six months households have been continuously reducing their domestic bank loans. In April household loans shrank by EUR 18.6 m. All types of loans declined. In the first four months the volume of household loans declined by as much as EUR 125 m, nearly three quarters more than in the same period last year. Enterprises and NFIs increased repayments of domestic bank loans in April. Their loan volume was down by almost EUR 175 m, which is the largest decline this year. NFI deleveraging rose compared with previous months, representing nearly a fifth of total corporate and NFI repayments. In the first four months corporate and NFI loans declined by over EUR 0.5 bn, roughly by a factor of 9 more than in the same period of 2012. Figure 29: Increase in household, corporate, NFI and government loans Households ^^BEnterprises&NF^ ^^BGovernment -Total 700 600 500 400 300 200 E 100 0 iS -100 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 30: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates ^^B Long-term loans (left axis) ^■Short-term loans (left axis) -Diff. between domestic and foreign interest reates (right axis) 300 533 350 250 -100 -300 150 50 ji ji ji Ji Ji Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 300 200 100 Corporate and NFI borrowing abroad rose strongly in March, also on account of the increased borrowing of the energy sector. Monthly net inflows amounted to EUR 545 m, the highest figure so far. The bulk was a result of long-term net borrowing, with the net inflows of short-term loans stood only at EUR 12 m. Corporate and NFI net borrowing abroad in the first three months stood almost at EUR 580 m. Even without this major loan, the net inflows of foreign loans would come to around EUR 140 m, almost four times as much as in the same period of last year. The differences between domestic and foreign interest rates for corporate and NFI loans remained around 210 b.p. in March. Banks recorded net borrowing abroad in March. The total net inflow of foreign sources of finance totalled EUR 7.4 m and was the sole result of the new issue of a government-guaranteed bond (worth EUR 150 m) of one of the banks. Banks continued to make net repayments of loans (EUR 50 m) and deposits (around EUR 110 m) in March. The net repayments of foreign liabilities in the first three months stood around EUR 390 m, in contrast to more than 1 EUR bn in the same period last year. Figure 31: Net repayments of foreign liabilities by domestic banks 2,000 - 1,500 1,000 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total 500 -500 -1,000 -1,500 Ji Ji Ji Ji Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The volume of household deposits in banks declined substantially in April, so that the liquidity pressures were alleviated slightly only by an increase in government deposits. April's movement of household deposits was also strongly affected by the tightening on the financial markets, which had started at the end of March. The volume of household deposits dropped by over EUR 280 m, the most since the beginning of the crisis. Short-term deposits declined in particular, though long-term deposits also contributed significantly (over EUR 110 m) to the total decline, which deteriorated the maturity structure of household deposits in domestic banks. Household deposits fell by around EUR 420 m in total in March and April, and by around EUR 250 m in the first four months, in contrast to the same period last year when they were still rising (by around EUR 160 m). Government deposits increased almost by EUR 85 m, mainly on account of short-term deposits, as long-term deposits declined. In the first four months government deposits rose by around EUR 140 m. Figure 32: Increase in household and government deposits Households (left axIs^^^B Government deposits (left axis)-Total 1,500 1,000 E cc 3 0 -500 -1,000 o ^ C C C C Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The volume of bad claims22 remains significant, even though it declined by nearly EUR 40 m in March. The decline was primarily attributable to a lower volume of bad claims abroad, while the quality of claims on other entities continued to deteriorate. The only exceptions were the Figure 33: Shares of bad and non-performing claims and creation of impairments and provisions in the Slovenian banking system ^■Provisions and Impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) — Share of bad claims (right axis) 450 420 390 360 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 Source:BS; calculations by IMAD. 22 C-, D- and E-rated claims. 0 Table8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 12 30. IV 13 30. IV 13/ 31. III 13 30. IV 13/ 31. XII 12 30. IV 13/ 30. IV 12 Loans total 31,464.6 30,821.0 -0.6 -2.0 -6.4 Enterprises and NFI 20,456.5 19,943.6 -0.9 -2.5 -9.4 Government 1,741.4 1,736.7 0.2 -0.3 13.4 Households 9,266.7 9,140.7 -0.2 -1.4 -2.6 Consumer credits 2,481.8 2,407.2 -0.3 -3.0 -8.7 Lending for house purchase 5,258.9 5,238.7 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 Other lending 1,526.1 1,494.9 -0.4 -2.0 -2.6 Bank deposits total 15,051.3 14,802.3 -1.9 -1.7 -3.0 Overnight deposits 6,479.4 6,387.7 0.1 -1.4 -1.8 Short-term deposits 4,010.4 3,891.8 -4.4 -3.0 -6.3 Long-term deposits 4,555.2 4,515.4 -2.5 -0.9 -1.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 6.2 7.5 -1.7 19.8 -6.7 Mutual funds 1,830.0 1,854.9 -1.5 1.4 -1.5 Government bank deposits, total 2,562.7 2,701.4 3.2 5.4 10.4 Overnight deposits 196.6 519.4 -10.9 164.1 614.2 Short-term deposits 828.5 799.0 50.4 -3.6 89.9 Long-term deposits 1,537.0 1,372.4 -8.5 -10.7 -29.6 Deposits redeemable at notice 0.5 10.6 283.7 1.846.8 157.2 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. construction sector and households, where bad claims declined by around EUR 5 m. The share of bad claims thus dropped by 0.1 p.p. to 14.5% in March. The creation of impairments and provisions strengthened in April. Banks added EUR 80 m in impairments and provisions in April, and EUR 185 m in the first four months, approximately a quarter less than in the same period last year. Public finance The general government deficit reduction slowed in the first quarter, largely due to lower revenue. The deficit in the first quarter totalled EUR 717 m23 and was slightly larger than in the same period of 2012 (1.3%). The deficit reduction observed since April 2012 seems to have stopped, mainly due to a significant drop in revenue (down EUR 198 m compared with the same period of last year), while expenditure continued to decrease year-on-year (down EUR 189 m). The deficit over the past twelvemonth period ending March 2013 (EUR 1.1 bn) also shows a reversal in the declining trend, which is in line with the larger deficit anticipated for this year. Both revenue and expenditure decreased in this period (-1.4% and -4.5% respectively). The decline in general government revenue in the first quarter was a result of lower tax revenue (-7.1% year-on-year) and lower social security contributions (-5.8%).24 Not-tax revenue, including receipts from the EU budget,25 had Figure 34: General government revenue and expenditure 17.5 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. a positive impact on total revenue. Tax revenue declined across all main categories, but the largest drops in the month of March were registered in value added tax and excise duties,26 which were around 28% lower year-on-year. Corporate income tax also decreased significantly in the first quarter (-29.9%), while revenue from personal income tax and social security contributions fell by 2.1% and 5.8% respectively.27 23 According to the consolidated balance on a cash basis. 24 Between May and November 2012, the negative trend of the growth rate of the yearly accumulated tax revenue was driven primarily by lower corporate income tax and VAT, while since November it has also reflected the decline in social security contributions. 25 These were up 8.0% year-on-year. 26 Excise duty collections are adjusted to match the given period. 27 Available information on the state budget for April 2013 indicates a further slow decline in tax revenue (EUR 120 m lower revenue y-o-y compared with EUR 157 m y-o-y in March). The year-on-year change in VAT and excise duty revenue was positive in April and the fall in tax revenue was mainly due to lower corporate income tax (EUR 141 m year-on-year). Box 4: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the programming period 2007-2013 In the current financial period (2007-2013) Slovenia has at its disposal EUR 4.1 bn of funds for the implementation of the Cohesion Policy (OP RR,1 OP RČV,2 OP ROPI3). Almost the total available amount (95%) has already been allocated so far,4 but there are significant differences between the total allocation and realisation, particularly in the implementation of infrastructure and environmental projects (OP ROPI) (see Table 11). In the first five months of 2013,6 which is the decisive year for the absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in view of the N+3/2 rule,7 reimbursements to the state budget recorded 8.9% growth. Within that, the highest growth was recorded by the OP RČV (10.8%) and the lowest by the OP RR (8.2%), even though the latter is the most successful operational programme in terms of absorption with regard to the financial allocation for this period. The OP ROPI (9.4% growth) is the most critical in terms of compliance with the N+3/2 rule. To comply with the N+3/2 rule, Slovenia still has to absorb approximately EUR 177 m for OP ROPI projects by the end of 2013,8 which is not an easy task, given the current dynamics, even though the absorption of OP ROPI funds will increase in the second half of the year. The difficulties in the implementation of environmental and infrastructure projects are mainly associated with lengthy audit procedures, numerous appeals in procurement procedures, spatial problems, bankruptcies in the construction sector and liquidity problems of beneficiaries. Among the positive measures for increasing the absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in Slovenia are, according our estimate, the signing of the protocol between the management authority and the Ministry of Finance on the beginning of the drawing of the EIB's loan to ensure own financial resources for the project, as well as the establishment of an expert group for public procurement, which will also deal with projects financed by the additionally allocated funds.9 Figure 35: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the 2007-2013 period5 ■ Eligible funds 2007-2013 ■ Allocated funds ■ Signed contracts ■ Payments to beneficiaries ■ Reimbursements to the state budget ■ Delays ♦ Absorption relative to eligible funds 2007-2013 (right axis) 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 250 80 70 50 40 10 Table 9: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds OP RR OP RČV OP ROPI Source: Ministry of Economic Development and Technology. in EUR m OP RR OP RČV OP ROPI OP Total Eligible funds 2007-2013 1,768.2 755.7 1,577.1 4,101.0 Allocated funds 1,653.9 717.2 1,517.0 3,888.1 Signed contracts 1,627.9 695.8 762.7 3,086.4 Payments to beneficiaries 1,249.3 449.3 456.8 2,155.4 Reimbursements to the state budget 1,162.7 383.0 408.2 1,953.9 Delays 86.6 66.3 48.6 201.5 Absorption relative to eligible funds 2007-2013 (in %) 65.7 50.7 25.9 47.6 Source: Ministry of Economic Development and Technology.. 1 Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials. 2 Operational Programme for Human Resource Development. 3 Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development. As at 17 May 2013. 6 As at 17 May 2013 with regard to 4 January 2013. 7 The N+3/2 rule stipulates that Slovenia has to absorb the funds allocated from the beginning of the current financial perspective until the end of 2011 by the end of 2013. 8 In addition to the existing financial allocation, all Operational Programmes were allocated additional funds (OP ROPI: 16,56%; OP RR: 5%; and OP RČV: 5% of the already earmarked amounts). The additional appropriations should close the gaps between the assessed project values and lower values of contracts, as well as provide a sufficient level of publicly justified expenses by the end of the programming period in order to maximise absorption capacity and the utilisation all available Cohesion Policy funds. 9 Council Regulation (EC) laying down general provisions on the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund and the Cohesion Policy Fund and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1260/1999, Art. 94. In the first quarter government expenditure decreased in all categories compared with the same period one year earlier, with the exception of payments to the EU budget. Almost 60% of the decline was attributable to lower interest payments28 (down EUR 113 m). Other main categories explaining the reduction in expenditure include wages (EUR 46 m), social transfers (EUR 32 m) and goods and 28 As a result of interest payment dynamics. services (EUR 32 m). Expenditure on investment and investment transfers also declined (EUR 29 m). The reduction of expenditure over the past twelve months ending March 2013 compared with the same period one year earlier (down EUR 752 m or -4.5% year-on-year) took place in all major expenditure categories, in particular expenditures on the wage bill, social transfers, investment and goods and services. All categories of social transfers 30 20 0 0 Table 10: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-III 2012 III 2013/III 2012 I-III 2013/I-III 2012 I-III 2012 I-III 2013 General government revenue - total 3,420.3 -18.5 -5.5 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 98.9 -24.4 -29.9 3.9 2.9 Personal income tax 478.0 -1.6 -2.1 13.5 14.0 Value added tax 625.3 -40.5 -12.0 19.6 18.3 Excise duties 300.0 -38.4 -14.3 9.7 8.8 Social security contributions 1,264.9 -8.6 -5.8 37.1 37.0 Other general government revenues 653.1 -13.3 11.4 16.2 19.1 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 11: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2012 2013 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-II 13, EUR m I-II 13/I-II 12 Revenue - total 14,995.1 42.3 0.1 3,420.3 -5.5 - Tax revenues 13,117.6 37.0 -0.7 2,946.8 -7.1 - Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 7.5 -2.5 577.1 -8.3 - Social security contributions 5,244.1 14.8 -0.4 1,264.9 -5.8 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,876.0 13.7 0.4 1,039.2 -10.7 - Receipts from the EU budget 845.2 2.4 3.7 211.2 8.0 Expenditure - total 16,117.9 45.4 -2.6 4,137.4 -4.4 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,185.1 9.0 -4.4 773.2 -5.6 - Purchases of goods and services 2,370.3 6.7 -3.0 562.1 -4.7 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 648.0 1.8 23.0 319.1 -26.1 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,383.6 18.0 -2.3 1,576.9 -2.0 - Capital expenditure 912.3 2.6 -10.9 141.7 -14.3 - Capital transfers 320.2 0.9 -13.9 42.5 -9.6 - Payment to the EU budget 390.3 1.1 -3.7 161.8 0.0 Deficit -1,122.8 -3.2 -28.2 -717.1 1.3 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. declined, with the exception of pensions, whose weak growth strengthened slightly in the last three months. The largest reductions were recorded for family benefits and parental compensation and social security transfers. Slovenia received EUR 73.9 m from and paid EUR 33.2 m into the EU budget in April. The bulk of receipts came under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 51.5 m), while the receipts from Structural Funds and the Cohesion fund totalled EUR 13.1 m29 and EUR 8.8 m respectively. In the first four months as a whole Slovenia received EUR 284.0 m from the EU budget, 19.7% of the level envisaged in the budget for 2013, while its contributions to the EU budget totalled EUR 195.1 m, 47.2% of the total amount planned for this year. Its net budgetary position against the EU budget in the first four months of this year was positive in the amount of EUR 88.9 m (EUR 47.2 m in the same period of last year). Almost half (48.7%) of all receipts were funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, which recorded the highest absorption rate with regard to the level planned (45.7%). A total of 39.8% of all received funds came from the Structural Funds (15.4% realisation with regard to the budget for 2013) and 9.4% from the Cohesion Fund 9.4% (7.0% realisation). Figure 36: Planned and absorbed EU funds ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2013 ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2012 ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-April) ■ Total receipts in 2012 (January-December) Other Common Agricultural Policy 29 Within that, 66.8% from the European Regional Development Fund and 33.2% from the European Social Fund. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. X "ö C a a (O "iS u (O MAIN INDICATORS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spring forecast 2013 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 -7.8 1.2 0.6 -2.3 -1.9 0.2 1.2 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 37,244 35,556 35,607 36,172 35,466 35,252 35,735 36,810 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 18,420 17,415 17,379 17,620 17,244 17,091 17,292 17,780 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,700 20,600 20,800 21,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 91 87 85 84 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 36,262 34,868 35,029 35,670 35,022 34,559 34,999 35,926 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 35,923 34,693 35,085 35,776 34,980 34,845 34,959 35,832 Rate of registered unemployment 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.4 13.6 13.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.0 10.0 9.4 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 0.8 -6.1 3.5 2.2 -1.1 -0.2 1.0 1.2 Inflation,2 year average 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.9 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.9 1.7 2.1 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 -16.7 10.1 7.0 0.3 1.2 3.3 4.9 Exports of goods 1.8 -17.4 11.9 8.5 -0.1 0.9 3.4 5.2 Exports of services 14.3 -13.7 3.7 1.4 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.6 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 -19.5 7.9 5.2 -4.3 -0.7 2.4 4.4 Imports of goods 3.0 -20.7 8.9 6.1 -4.6 -0.8 2.4 4.5 Imports of services 8.2 -12.0 2.7 -0.3 -2.4 -0.4 2.5 4.2 Current account balance, in EUR million -2,295 -246 -209 2 874 1,545 1,375 1,423 As a per cent share relative to GDP -6.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 2.5 4.4 3.8 3.9 Gross external debt, in EUR million 39,234 40,294 40,723 40,241 40,632 40,5175 As a per cent share relative to GDP 105.3 113.3 114.4 111.2 114.6 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.335 1.336 1.336 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.3 0.1 1.3 0.9 -2.9 -4.0 -1.3 0.5 As a % of GDP4 52.6 55.7 57.2 57.8 58.3 57.4 56.6 56.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 5.9 2.5 1.5 -1.2 -1.6 -2.9 -0.6 -0.1 As a % of GDP4 18.1 20.1 20.7 20.8 20.6 19.9 19.8 19.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 7.1 -23.2 -13.8 -8.1 -9.3 -0.5 0.8 1.5 As a % of GDP4 28.6 23.1 20.1 18.5 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.0 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2013). Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End March 2013. PRODUCTION 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.1 1.3 -1.2 7.7 2.8 -0.8 -3.8 -0.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.3 -2.0 5.4 2.0 3.9 2.4 -2.1 B Mining and quarrying 13.9 -7.9 -7.3 -3.2 -9.0 -9.6 -8.7 -10.2 -2.1 -3.4 -13.2 9.0 -6.8 -3.6 -21.7 -0.5 -9.1 C Manufacturing 7.6 1.1 -2.4 7.8 2.9 -1.1 -4.6 -1.1 -3.1 -2.1 -3.1 -3.3 5.7 1.7 4.5 2.4 -2.5 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 1.8 5.0 10.6 6.9 3.8 5.1 4.0 8.3 13.2 16.1 6.1 7.3 3.5 5.7 3.2 2.4 4.3 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -16.9 -24.8 -16.8 -25.7 -30.1 -24.5 -19.1 -15.3 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.0 -29.3 -26.5 -28.2 -35.0 -26.2 Buildings -14.0 -39.7 -17.3 -41.5 -46.5 -34.3 -35.9 -13.0 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -39.4 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -36.0 Civil engineering -19.0 -15.3 -16.6 -6.3 -20.7 -19.9 -10.1 -21.2 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.8 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 7.9 3.2 -3.4 -3.2 1.5 3.6 11.7 6.0 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 - Tonne-km in rail transport 28.2 9.7 -7.5 23.3 10.8 8.5 -1.6 -8.7 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.6 3.1 0.2 7.5 3.6 2.9 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 -3.2 -2.7 -4.9 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.4 0.0 Real turnover in retail trade -0.1 1.4 0.3 3.4 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.5 -2.7 -1.7 -1.0 -2.6 0.6 0.3 1.8 -0.9 -1.1 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 12.2 6.6 0.0 15.8 9.9 4.4 -1.9 -2.8 -7.2 -5.7 -6.4 -9.7 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 1.3 5.8 0.7 12.2 3.8 4.6 3.4 3.4 -0.6 1.2 -1.1 -4.8 10.4 4.2 6.2 1.1 -0.3 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -1.5 5.3 -4.0 3.1 6.6 6.6 3.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10.6 4.1 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -4.2 0.5 -10.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3.4 -3.7 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 0.7 9.1 0.9 6.5 11.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 2.7 3.7 -1.1 5.7 4.7 4.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 -3.9 -5.5 5.2 6.9 0.6 6.9 2.2 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 454.5 478.9 481.7 100.4 113.3 125.7 139.5 108.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -9 -7 -17 -7 -4 -6 -10 -12 -16 -19 -21 -1M -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 0 -11 3 3 -1 -7 -6 -11 -14 -13 -9 3 6 3 1 0 - in construction -57 -46 -41 -52 -46 -44 -43 -40 -44 -39 -39 -30 -50 -49 -45 -45 -46 - in services -3 1 -12 0 3 3 -4 -8 -8 -14 -18 -12 3 4 2 3 3 - in retail trade 7 8 2 6 12 1 12 7 4 1 -3 -4 -1 10 15 12 1 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -25 -35 -27 -25 -25 -24 -27 -36 -39 -37 -29 -26 -26 -25 -23 -24 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2011 2012 2013 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 -2.1 1.5 -3.1 -0.4 -8.3 0.3 3.2 -3.7 2.1 -3.8 -2.7 3.5 3.2 -6.7 5.1 -4.8 -7.6 0.5 -0.4 -5.7 - -17.2 -2.4 -7.2 -3.0 -17.0 5.8 -11.5 -21.6 -7.9 10.0 -6.8 -5.5 1.5 -5.9 1.3 -17.7 -24.9 -9.2 12.9 24.4 -3.3 1.8 -3.8 -1.6 -8.8 -0.2 1.8 -4.3 1.9 -5.6 -5.0 1.7 1.6 -8.3 4.6 -5.4 -9.1 -0.3 -0.4 -8.3 11.9 -0.3 4.7 13.2 -4.0 3.5 16.3 5.3 5.6 10.8 24.0 22.6 16.2 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 9.8 -0.9 13.7 - -30.4 -16.3 -24.4 -7.8 -24.0 -21.7 -24.3 -3.1 -13.5 -23.8 -11.7 -19.6 -14.4 -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 -22.4 -13.1 -31.7 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 -28.6 -44.5 -31.1 -31.0 27.6 -7.2 -15.6 4.4 -23.9 -11.9 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 -36.4 -26.1 -49.1 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 0.7 -7.0 -18.1 -22.8 -22.0 -18.6 -26.5 -17.0 -17.1 -15.7 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 -8.5 -0.5 -14.4 - - - - - - - - 6.3 2.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 2.6 1.0 -1.8 -4.0 -5.2 -3.7 -0.6 -3.8 -10.2 -3.4 -5.4 -8.0 -4.8 -8.7 -7.7 - 5.6 2.1 0.5 1.3 -1.1 4.0 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 -0.8 -6.5 -4.1 -5.9 -7.5 -4.4 -9.4 -7.3 8.0 3.0 1.3 -3.6 -3.4 -0.1 -3.5 -4.8 -5.1 -8.8 -7.7 -0.6 -10.8 -17.7 -2.1 -4.6 -9.2 -5.6 -7.4 -8.5 8.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 -0.9 8.6 3.9 -0.9 0.1 0.4 -2.2 7.2 2.8 -5.3 4.8 -2.0 -6.4 2.4 -4.9 -10.9 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.0 1.2 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 7.9 -1.9 1.3 2.5 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 -10.5 0.2 0.6 - 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 -3.3 -0.3 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 -1.6 0.9 -9.9 -4.1 -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.2 5.8 0.6 4.5 1.9 9.4 14.1 -3.7 8.4 6.3 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 -10.8 2.5 9.3 4.8 7.5 -1.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 -3.6 1.4 -0.9 2.6 -0.1 1.1 0.6 -2.9 -4.3 -0.4 -6.8 -7.3 -2.5 -6.6 39.8 43.7 48.9 44.0 46.7 34.3 35.1 39.0 37.0 38.3 35.1 47.2 37.9 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 33.9 32.2 38.4 - - -7 -6 -10 -10 -11 -12 -12 -12 -16 -14 -17 -16 -19 -21 -23 -22 -17 -16 -16 -13 -14 -14 -2 -1 -8 -7 -5 -3 -6 -8 -9 -11 -13 -12 -14 -15 -17 -14 -9 -12 -8 -7 -9 -5 -43 -43 -42 -45 -41 -43 -39 -39 -45 -44 -43 -41 -36 -41 -42 -41 -35 -30 -30 -30 -27 -20 5 2 0 -2 -9 -11 -9 -5 -8 -7 -10 -11 -14 -17 -20 -19 -15 -13 -13 -11 -9 -14 -11 12 13 14 10 5 9 6 8 2 3 0 0 3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -6 -4 -6 -4 -27 -23 -26 -26 -20 -27 -26 -27 -39 -33 -37 -36 -35 -45 -39 -38 -34 -30 -31 -26 -27 -37 LABOUR MARKET 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 935.5 934.7 920.2 936.8 937.5 931.1 933.3 926.6 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 938.4 937.7 936.3 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 835.0 824.0 810.0 821.9 828.4 823.9 821.7 812.7 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 826.9 829.0 829.2 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 33.4 38.8 37.0 38.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 35.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 40.1 40.1 40.1 In industry, construction 287.3 272.9 263.1 273.7 274.2 272.7 271.0 265.4 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 273.5 274.7 274.4 Of which: in manufacturing 188.6 184.8 182.9 184.1 184.7 184.4 186.2 184.6 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 184.3 185.1 184.6 in construction 78.5 67.8 59.8 69.7 69.3 67.9 64.4 60.5 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 69.1 69.4 69.4 In services 514.3 512.3 510.0 510.2 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.1 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 513.3 514.3 514.7 Of which: in public administration 52.0 51.4 50.7 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.9 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 51.5 51.6 51.6 in education, health-services, social work 116.7 118.8 120.9 117.8 118.8 118.5 120.1 120.7 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 118.6 118.9 119.0 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 747.2 729.1 717.0 728.1 731.9 728.9 727.4 720.9 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 730.5 732.5 732.6 In enterprises and organisations 685.7 671.8 662.6 671.4 673.9 671.3 670.7 666.4 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 672.9 674.3 674.4 By those self-employed 61.5 57.2 54.5 56.7 58.0 57.6 56.6 54.5 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 57.6 58.2 58.2 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.8 94.9 93.0 93.8 96.5 95.0 94.4 91.8 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 100.5 110.7 110.2 114.9 109.1 107.2 111.6 114.0 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 111.6 108.6 107.1 Female 47.9 52.1 52.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 53.3 53.2 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 51.8 50.7 50.2 By age: under 26 13.9 12.9 11.9 14.5 12.6 11.3 13.4 12.7 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.4 12.5 11.9 aged over 50 31.4 39.0 38.2 40.1 39.1 38.7 38.2 39.2 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.4 39.1 38.8 Unskilled 37.5 39.5 39.4 41.6 39.2 38.1 39.3 41.0 39.2 37.8 39.5 43.4 40.1 39.1 38.4 For more than 1 year 42.8 50.2 55.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 53.8 57.2 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 48.8 48.6 48.5 Those receiving benefits 30.0 36.3 33.9 39.7 36.4 34.9 34.4 37.8 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 37.5 36.4 35.3 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 10.7 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.2 11.5 12.0 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 11.9 11.6 11.4 Male 10.1 11.4 11.5 12.0 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 11.5 11.2 11.0 Female 11.6 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 12.3 12.1 12.0 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 13.3 2.7 5.3 3.9 -6.9 0.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 New unemployed first-job seekers 16.8 14.4 16.3 3.2 2.0 2.7 6.5 2.4 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Redundancies 83.5 82.2 90.3 24.4 16.8 18.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 5.4 5.6 5.7 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.0 61.0 58.3 17.5 17.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 6.0 6.3 4.9 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 29.9 32.8 43.1 6.2 8.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 2.5 3.0 3.0 REGISTERED VACANCIES2 174.6 194.5 169.7 45.5 52.9 52.3 43.8 44.9 41.2 46.8 36.8 N/A 15.7 17.8 19.3 For a fixed term, in % 80.7 81.7 83.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 81.4 82.9 83.4 84.0 81.8 N/A 81.5 82.1 79.3 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 41.6 35.6 33.9 38.0 35.5 34.7 34.3 34.2 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 37.4 34.6 34.5 As % of labour force 4.4 3.8 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.7 NEW JOBS 104.1 118.3 110.6 27.3 27.3 26.3 37.4 30.8 27.3 26.9 15.1 N/A 9.4 9.2 8.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: "In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2011 2012 2013 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 931.7 930.0 931.5 935.3 934.5 930.1 927.5 927.1 925.4 926.0 923.7 921.3 917.4 914.5 913.8 918.0 916.5 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 824.2 823.0 824.5 824.4 823.4 817.3 811.6 812.0 814.5 816.9 816.9 815.7 810.5 808.4 808.3 807.1 805.0 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.1 37.9 35.2 35.1 35.3 37.7 37.8 37.9 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 273.5 272.1 267.4 265.4 264.7 266.1 266.6 266.6 265.7 264.0 263.2 262.2 261.1 259.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 183.8 184.0 185.2 186.8 186.6 185.1 184.6 184.6 184.6 184.4 184.2 183.8 182.9 182.5 182.1 181.8 181.2 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 68.4 68.4 67.0 66.2 65.0 62.1 60.7 59.9 61.0 61.7 61.8 61.4 60.5 60.2 59.6 59.0 58.1 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 512.7 511.4 513.1 512.8 513.2 512.0 510.9 512.2 513.1 512.6 512.5 512.1 509.3 507.9 508.5 508.5 508.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 51.4 51.5 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.2 50.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 51.2 51.2 50.8 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.2 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 118.2 118.1 119.3 119.8 120.2 120.3 119.9 120.8 121.5 121.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 119.8 120.8 121.1 121.3 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 729.0 728.1 729.7 730.1 729.0 723.0 719.6 720.3 722.7 723.0 723.1 722.1 717.7 715.6 715.2 713.7 711.6 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 671.1 670.5 672.2 672.7 671.9 667.6 665.2 666.1 667.9 667.7 667.7 666.7 662.8 660.9 660.5 659.2 657.7 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 57.9 57.5 57.4 57.4 57.0 55.5 54.5 54.2 54.8 55.3 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.7 54.7 54.5 53.9 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 94.5 94.3 91.9 91.8 91.8 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.8 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.4 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 107.6 107.0 107.0 110.9 111.1 112.8 116.0 115.0 110.9 106.8 106.8 105.6 106.9 106.1 105.4 110.9 111.5 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 50.9 51.0 51.3 53.5 53.4 53.2 54.2 53.4 52.0 51.7 50.9 50.5 51.2 50.9 50.5 53.3 53.3 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.0 11.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.2 37.9 38.4 39.6 39.4 38.6 38.5 38.1 37.7 37.9 37.4 37.1 37.0 37.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 38.1 37.9 38.3 38.7 39.0 40.1 41.4 41.6 40.0 40.0 39.0 38.4 38.2 37.7 37.5 38.3 38.7 41.6 43.6 43.8 42.8 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.8 52.9 56.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 55.4 55.0 54.7 54.6 54.6 54.3 54.3 53.6 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 35.2 35.1 34.4 33.9 33.7 35.5 38.5 38.3 36.7 34.2 33.4 31.9 32.1 31.4 31.2 31.5 31.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 0.5 -0.6 0.1 3.9 0.2 1.7 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 -0.8 -0.6 5.4 0.6 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.4 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.2 10.6 6.1 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.6 8.0 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.2 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 7.1 5.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 15.5 17.2 19.5 15.8 14.3 13.6 15.6 13.1 16.2 14.0 14.2 13.0 15.4 16.4 15.1 15.9 11.3 9.6 13.5 11.1 N/A 80.9 83.5 83.9 84.0 81.6 78.5 80.3 82.7 85.7 83.3 83.9 83.0 83.7 84.6 83.8 83.0 81.0 81.3 82.1 83.2 N/A 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.5 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.7 34.4 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 7.6 6.5 12.3 11.9 12.6 12.8 11.8 8.4 10.6 10.0 9.0 8.4 8.2 7.0 11.6 10.5 8.3 6.8 9.5 7.2 N/A WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.9 2.0 0.1 3.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 2.8 2.0 1.3 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.8 3.1 -1.1 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 6.8 3.4 -1.5 B Mining and quarrying 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 8.4 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 C Manufacturing 9.0 3.9 2.5 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 5.2 3.8 1.8 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.7 2.3 3.3 1.6 5.2 3.5 -0.5 5.6 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 7.2 6.8 3.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 3.4 2.3 -1.2 F Constrution 4.4 2.0 -2.5 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 1.6 3.4 -0.9 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 3.7 2.8 0.8 3.2 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.1 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 H Transportation and storage 2.0 2.7 -0.4 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.6 2.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 2.0 5.4 9.6 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.0 2.1 -0.8 4.7 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 1.7 2.6 1.3 J Information and communication 2.6 0.9 -0.4 1.0 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 1.7 0.5 -0.3 K Financial and insurance activities 1.0 0.6 1.1 2.3 2.4 0.8 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 L Real estate activities 3.0 2.9 -0.5 4.1 2.9 3.4 1.6 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1.6 -0.4 -1.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 N Administrative and support service activities 4.1 3.5 0.6 4.3 3.2 3.9 2.7 3.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 2.8 3.8 3.5 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security -0.6 0.3 -1.8 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 P Education 0.6 0.2 -3.3 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Q Human health and social work activities -0.3 -0.7 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.5 -0.7 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 S Other service activities 4.2 0.9 -0.9 2.7 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 2.4 2.0 -1.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -2.1 -0.1 -1.2 -1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 Real (deflator HICP) -1.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.8 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -1.6 Real (deflator ULC) -1.6 -2.5 -3.0 -3.1 -1.7 -2.5 -2.5 -2.2 -3.3 -3.5 -3.1 USD/EUR 1.3268 1.3917 1.2856 1.3669 1.4393 1.4126 1.3480 1.3110 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.4349 1.4388 1.4264 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2011 2012 2013 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 -3.5 2.1 0.3 -2.1 -0.1 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 4.3 6.6 9.7 2.2 6.8 10.0 11.9 3.8 4.0 14.9 13.2 1.4 5.4 -0.2 1.5 1.7 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 5.2 3.4 2.8 4.6 1.8 4.5 3.8 1.9 2.7 3.9 1.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.5 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.7 2.2 3.7 -8.1 5.6 5.5 8.0 3.6 5.2 6.5 0.3 4.0 2.6 8.3 7.8 -6.6 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 3.3 1.1 2.2 -7.5 -1.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 -2.5 4.0 -0.1 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 1.1 1.4 -3.1 -1.3 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 -1.9 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 3.2 1.7 2.4 4.3 2.4 3.3 2.2 1.0 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 4.0 -1.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 -1.3 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 -1.9 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.7 -1.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 2.5 3.1 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 3.2 0.9 -0.6 -6.2 0.5 1.5 8.4 3.8 -0.4 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 3.5 -4.0 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 4.7 3.4 1.7 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.9 0.5 -2.9 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 3.1 5.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.1 2.0 -0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 -0.9 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 -3.6 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 1.6 1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.8 2.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.4 -1.0 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 1.4343 1.3770 1.3706 1.3556 1.3179 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 1.3162 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 1.2400 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 PRICES 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2 3 4 5 6 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 1.0 4.4 4.1 3.9 5.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 7.2 5.7 6.5 8.1 6.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 Clothing and footwear -1.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 0.9 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas 10.2 5.6 3.8 6.8 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.4 1.8 2.1 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 Furnishings, household equipment 1.4 2.7 0.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.1 1.6 0.4 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.3 -0.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 Transport -0.3 1.0 3.3 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 Communications 1.4 1.2 -2.4 2.7 1.6 2.3 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 Recreation and culture 0.4 -1.5 1.4 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 -0.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 Education 1.6 1.7 2.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 Catering services -2.5 -6.8 4.5 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 HCPI 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.1 4.5 0.9 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 Domestic market 2.0 3.8 1.0 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 Non-domestic market 2.2 5.3 0.7 6.9 5.5 4.6 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 euro area 2.2 6.1 0.1 8.2 6.5 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.4 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 non-euro area 2.1 3.6 2.0 4.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.6 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 Import price indices 7.4 5.4 1.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.2 0.8 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 16.5 10.9 12.7 15.1 9.9 8.3 10.8 12.1 12.5 14.5 11.6 5.6 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 Oil products 17.3 11.9 13.0 15.7 10.5 9.9 11.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 Transport & communications 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other controlled prices 1.3 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Direct control - total 14.2 2.8 9.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 2.1 7.3 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.3 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2011 2012 2013 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.1 7.4 7.1 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 7.8 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 11.9 9.7 10.3 12.0 13.8 14.7 11.8 10.9 10.1 14.6 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 12.7 10.3 10.5 12.2 14.2 15.3 11.9 10.8 9.2 14.4 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 1.3 2.0 9.5 10.6 11.1 9.0 8.5 7.9 11.0 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 213 2011 Q^ Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -209 2 818 55 73 -91 -36 28 250 264 275 221 73 49 -94 117 Goods1 -997 -1,043 -335 -227 -219 -214 -383 -167 -106 9 -70 -45 -89 -73 -162 16 Exports 18,762 21,265 21,454 5,179 5,486 5,245 5,354 5,329 5,498 5,255 5,372 5,382 1,942 1,747 1,882 1,857 Imports 19,759 22,308 21,789 5,406 5,705 5,458 5,738 5,495 5,605 5,246 5,442 5,426 2,031 1,820 2,043 1,842 Services 1,285 1,443 1,701 316 399 358 370 404 451 458 388 484 122 145 122 132 Exports 4,616 4,839 5,095 1,052 1,186 1,381 1,219 1,113 1,246 1,434 1,302 1,211 394 400 381 406 Imports 3,331 3,396 3,395 736 787 1,023 849 709 795 976 915 727 271 255 258 274 Income -599 -550 -578 -85 -143 -238 -84 -179 -123 -130 -145 -163 -28 -49 -55 -39 Receipts 574 918 797 204 237 220 257 178 224 207 188 157 89 68 82 87 Expenditure 1,173 1,469 1,375 289 380 459 341 358 347 338 332 319 117 117 137 126 Current transfers 102 153 29 52 36 3 61 -30 29 -72 103 -56 68 27 0 9 Receipts 1,203 1,373 1,370 378 320 311 364 338 356 274 402 323 162 115 105 99 Expenditure 1,100 1,220 1,340 326 284 308 302 368 327 347 299 378 95 88 105 91 Capital and financial account 535 -452 -1,001 48 -244 -84 -172 136 -261 -507 -369 -867 162 18 60 -322 Capital account 53 -102 -46 -7 -6 -8 -82 6 26 1 -80 6 1 -2 0 -4 Financial account 482 -350 -955 55 -239 -77 -89 130 -287 -508 -289 -873 161 20 60 -318 Direct investment 431 638 185 -9 240 246 160 189 48 34 -86 -14 136 89 111 39 Domestic abroad 160 -81 73 -15 31 55 -152 -8 82 18 -19 -83 20 -9 14 26 Foreign in Slovenia 271 719 113 6 209 191 313 197 -35 17 -67 70 116 98 98 13 Portfolio investment 1,956 1,838 -221 2,592 -300 -440 -15 -933 129 -980 1,563 134 1,662 -361 288 -226 Financial derivatives -117 -136 -107 -80 -15 -24 -18 -23 -21 -31 -32 -29 -20 -5 -5 -5 Other investment -1,806 -2,762 -844 -2,457 -177 108 -236 858 -437 489 -1,754 -1,031 -1,599 283 -335 -125 Assets 783 -1,461 -1,486 -1,525 -159 -349 572 -1,467 -81 256 -195 -1,252 -836 78 -87 -150 Commercial credits -174 -47 35 -322 -88 44 319 -349 -35 110 309 -351 -133 -83 31 -36 Loans 203 -52 -310 -99 -22 48 22 4 -95 84 -303 25 -54 12 -17 -18 Currency and deposits 672 -1,315 -1,155 -1,109 -48 -408 250 -1,131 25 16 -65 -921 -671 138 -97 -89 Other assets 81 -46 -56 5 0 -33 -18 10 24 46 -137 -5 21 10 -3 -7 Liabilities -2,589 -1,301 642 -932 -18 457 -808 2,324 -357 233 -1,559 221 -763 205 -248 25 Commercial credits 362 94 364 199 -18 -85 -3 169 138 -98 155 -348 181 143 4 -165 Loans -986 -1,235 -725 -388 -298 203 -753 -122 -223 -177 -203 373 -190 -214 -226 142 Deposits -1,954 -169 1,026 -787 334 340 -57 2,287 -288 530 -1,503 188 -781 274 -26 86 Other liabilities -11 9 -24 42 -36 0 3 -10 16 -22 -8 8 27 2 0 -38 International reserves2 19 72 31 9 12 33 19 39 -6 -21 19 67 -18 13 1 -2 Statistical error -326 450 183 -104 171 175 207 -164 11 243 94 646 -235 -67 34 205 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,834 1,999 2,041 446 517 506 530 470 541 506 524 N/A. 177 156 183 178 Intermediate goods 10,044 11,906 12,060 2,904 3,097 3,001 2,904 3,041 3,081 3,005 2,932 N/A 1,070 996 1,060 1,042 Consumer goods 6,550 6,909 6,783 1,737 1,757 1,622 1,792 1,678 1,721 1,597 1,787 N/A 663 560 599 599 Import of investment goods 2,323 2,504 2,382 563 616 589 736 557 584 568 674 N/A 238 185 227 205 Intermediate goods 12,210 14,010 13,951 3,500 3,588 3,452 3,471 3,629 3,573 3,404 3,345 N/A 1,319 1,153 1,265 1,170 Consumer goods 5,522 5,938 5,718 1,390 1,526 1,501 1,522 1,428 1,400 1,350 1,541 N/A 511 477 557 491 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2011 2012 2013 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 26 -127 10 70 2 -107 -59 -112 199 68 94 88 75 -3 192 113 151 12 -73 -2 296 20 -137 -97 -51 -108 -224 -118 -49 1 -6 -46 -55 25 -91 75 -9 74 -136 -152 8 99 1,782 1,534 1,929 1,830 1,901 1,622 1,638 1,714 1,977 1,792 1,846 1,859 1,818 1,597 1,839 1,953 1,901 1,518 1,702 1,753 1,927 1,762 1,671 2,025 1,882 2,010 1,846 1,756 1,763 1,976 1,798 1,892 1,914 1,793 1,689 1,764 1,962 1,827 1,654 1,853 1,745 1,828 81 122 155 151 125 94 147 99 158 142 183 126 116 157 185 187 117 84 157 112 215 459 459 463 416 382 421 375 322 416 392 436 418 485 479 469 466 414 422 383 344 484 378 337 308 265 257 327 228 223 258 251 253 292 368 323 285 279 297 339 225 232 269 -94 -89 -56 -31 -39 -14 -62 -60 -57 -44 -40 -39 -40 -44 -46 -50 -47 -47 -56 -54 -53 74 65 82 80 77 99 60 58 61 71 79 74 70 68 69 61 62 65 52 51 53 167 154 138 111 116 114 122 118 118 116 118 113 110 112 115 112 109 112 107 105 107 19 -23 7 0 24 37 -25 -102 97 -24 -3 56 -26 -25 -21 -16 7 112 -23 -68 35 117 71 123 94 115 155 69 65 204 93 110 153 108 82 85 87 105 209 83 92 147 98 95 115 93 91 118 95 167 107 117 113 97 134 106 106 103 99 97 106 160 112 55 -48 -92 -297 -60 185 96 200 -160 -169 -225 133 -94 -199 -214 -312 -240 183 -350 -121 -396 -7 -4 3 -2 9 -89 -6 9 3 26 1 0 0 2 -2 -2 5 -84 -4 7 3 62 -44 -95 -295 -68 274 102 191 -163 -195 -226 133 -95 -201 -212 -310 -246 267 -346 -128 -399 65 69 113 -82 -50 292 -29 102 116 -93 87 53 34 -17 17 -16 58 -127 72 40 -126 -44 41 57 -77 4 -79 -31 1 23 -27 37 72 6 31 -20 -22 32 -30 -3 5 -86 109 27 55 -6 -53 372 2 101 93 -65 50 -19 28 -47 37 5 25 -97 75 35 -40 72 -64 -448 225 -179 -61 211 -819 -324 76 133 -81 -644 -152 -184 1,674 -54 -56 -156 17 273 -4 -4 -16 -2 -8 -8 0 9 -31 -6 -7 -7 -9 -3 -19 -10 -6 -16 -20 -3 -5 -59 -59 227 -421 125 61 -11 841 28 -172 -437 172 565 -26 -50 -1,984 -255 485 -264 -193 -574 -498 -17 166 -361 301 632 -612 104 -958 -384 120 183 146 170 -60 -297 -425 527 -312 -369 -571 -39 202 -118 -135 42 412 -87 -86 -177 23 -32 -26 16 159 -65 -28 39 299 -55 -82 -214 -20 27 41 -48 23 46 21 129 -146 -153 -28 86 40 52 -8 16 -47 -272 4 8 12 -424 -228 244 -187 234 203 -543 44 -632 -258 165 119 60 -56 13 -134 -413 482 -269 -296 -356 -14 -18 -1 9 3 -29 -3 17 -4 4 15 5 31 15 0 -151 -4 18 7 1 -13 439 -42 61 -60 -177 -572 601 737 987 212 -557 -11 418 -196 10 -1,687 170 -42 48 176 -3 -10 -263 188 -24 137 -116 -80 152 97 -17 -75 230 -8 -148 58 6 20 130 -260 90 -178 240 -41 5 -201 -429 -122 77 -212 13 103 -213 -113 -83 -61 -32 15 -191 -27 34 -151 491 202 237 -99 158 103 -319 550 833 904 115 -278 -126 527 12 -9 -1,726 359 -136 274 234 -319 7 25 -33 7 12 -15 54 -36 -28 10 9 -2 -17 1 -6 18 -17 -9 1 3 4 -12 15 29 -15 44 -10 -68 59 48 0 -2 -4 -41 -3 23 26 11 -18 22 11 33 -82 175 82 227 58 -78 -38 -87 -39 101 131 -221 20 202 22 199 90 -195 422 123 101 178 154 173 171 177 181 143 155 172 180 186 175 170 161 176 188 177 159 150 183 N/A 1,005 903 1,093 1,026 1,052 826 950 989 1,102 1,002 1,044 1,035 1,046 931 1,028 1,111 1,055 767 999 975 N/A 559 439 624 594 629 570 499 526 653 555 566 600 552 458 587 612 625 550 501 554 N/A 204 166 219 203 226 307 174 159 224 186 201 197 216 163 190 217 209 247 194 218 N/A 1,119 1,059 1,275 1,203 1,254 1,014 1,168 1,169 1,292 1,176 1,208 1,189 1,173 1,093 1,139 1,243 1,157 945 1,218 1,104 N/A 475 474 552 504 536 482 446 456 526 449 474 478 441 447 462 543 508 490 442 469 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 138 102 221 138 132 101 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 Central government (S. 1311) 3,419 4,299 5,057 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 526 584 610 526 538 536 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,282 9,454 9,267 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,646 20,876 19,470 21,646 21,793 21,775 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,497 2,229 2,135 2,497 2,454 2,402 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,811 5,445 5,194 5,811 5,674 5,740 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,994 35,692 34,558 35,994 35,993 36,008 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,970 In foreign currency 1,843 1,536 1,309 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,586 Securities, total 5,345 5,659 5,862 5,345 5,265 5,266 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 26,767 28,420 29,582 26,767 27,630 27,235 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 Overnight 8,155 8,245 8,678 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,193 7,868 7,056 8,193 8,816 8,483 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 With agreed maturity -long-term 10,337 12,248 13,780 10,337 10,496 10,550 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 82 59 68 82 73 23 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 Deposits in foreign currency, total 463 579 552 463 452 453 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 Overnight 285 386 372 285 282 287 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 With agreed maturity -short-term 121 133 123 121 115 116 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 With agreed maturity -long-term 55 59 56 55 53 49 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 1.81 2.15 2.31 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.53 5.46 5.48 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 5.69 5.32 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.40 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.50 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.81 1.39 0.57 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 6-month rates 1.08 1.64 0.83 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.19 0.12 0.07 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 6-month rates 0.27 0.18 0.15 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2011 2012 2013 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 83 102 111 119 182 169 188 204 227 227 207 226 224 221 232 233 229 233 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,814 4,874 5,138 5,144 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 554 584 588 589 588 591 580 584 589 590 585 583 580 610 609 613 609 610 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 9,338 9,341 9,318 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 21,434 20,876 20,976 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,506 20,398 20,294 20,044 19,470 19,424 19,262 19,148 19,022 2,277 2,229 2,210 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 2,210 2,204 2,186 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,229 5,210 4,930 5,012 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,440 35,316 35,131 34,943 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 1,372 1,354 1,348 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 5,052 5,659 5,837 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 5,928 6,004 5,990 5,862 5,845 5,924 5,777 6,177 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 29,354 29,457 30,062 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,632 8,523 8,648 8,763 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 6,964 6,980 7,417 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,852 13,751 13,755 13,763 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 60 59 92 92 72 80 83 78 66 55 116 74 119 68 81 120 158 174 538 579 570 564 577 568 559 583 597 591 579 571 576 552 538 554 549 520 365 386 391 384 384 385 381 397 410 412 397 388 399 372 372 383 363 361 114 133 117 120 132 124 116 125 125 119 124 126 119 123 109 114 128 103 58 59 61 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 57 56 57 56 56 56 57 55 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 2.23 2.28 2.28 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.01 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 5.62 5.53 6.00 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 6.52 6.51 5.48 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.21 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.48 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 - 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.09 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 qO Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 8 1 9 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,794.0 14,982.3 14,995.1 3,600.7 3,826.7 3,538.4 4,016.5 3,618.4 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,087.2 3,420.3 1,220.5 1,220.6 Current revenues 13,771.5 14,037.9 14,027.3 3,364.6 3,638.6 3,319.1 3,715.6 3,410.8 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,763.2 3,185.0 1,181.0 1,100.8 Tax revenues 12,848.4 13,209.2 13,117.6 3,155.9 3,451.0 3,129.7 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,460.5 2,946.8 1,111.6 1,041.2 Taxes on income and profit 2,490.7 2,723.5 2,656.6 635.4 827.7 562.9 697.5 629.5 723.0 511.1 793.1 577.1 221.0 235.8 Social security contributions 5,234.5 5,267.6 5,244.1 1,300.6 1,316.9 1,303.8 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 431.5 436.1 Taxes on payroll and workforce 28.1 29.2 25.6 6.7 7.6 6.7 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 1.9 2.1 Taxes on property 219.7 215.2 233.2 24.0 53.8 84.2 53.1 26.6 64.8 79.4 62.3 24.2 30.8 28.0 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,780.7 4,856.2 4,876.0 1,165.5 1,217.4 1,148.4 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.3 1,039.2 420.1 331.1 Taxes on international trade & transactions 90.7 100.2 82.5 23.7 27.6 23.8 25.1 22.3 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 6.4 8.2 Other taxes 4.0 17.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 17.6 -19.4 0.5 5.8 12.8 16.5 -0.1 0.0 Non-tax revenues 923.0 828.7 909.7 208.7 187.6 189.5 242.9 238.1 171.9 197.0 302.7 238.2 69.4 59.6 Capital revenues 175.7 65.3 61.8 7.6 21.6 14.4 21.7 10.5 10.8 11.7 28.7 10.7 4.2 5.1 Grants 12.6 10.4 9.2 2.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 0.3 0.5 Transferred revenues 109.5 53.8 51.6 2.3 0.4 50.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 50.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 50.3 Receipts from the EU budget 724.7 814.9 845.2 223.9 163.2 153.3 274.6 195.6 213.2 146.6 289.8 211.2 35.1 63.9 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,692.7 16,546.3 16,117.9 4,191.6 4,159.0 3,955.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,097.9 4,137.4 1,321.4 1,325.8 Current expenditures 6,960.4 6,926.7 6,810.3 1,898.6 1,742.3 1,645.5 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,593.4 1,842.7 540.4 569.6 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,912.4 3,882.7 3,728.0 967.0 1,010.3 955.0 950.4 958.3 973.9 910.8 885.1 905.3 320.6 312.8 Expenditures on goods and services 2,512.4 2,443.4 2,370.3 585.3 615.7 603.4 638.9 589.7 599.1 551.1 630.5 562.1 215.5 180.5 Interest payments 488.2 526.7 648.0 311.3 108.1 78.0 29.3 431.8 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 2.3 71.7 Reserves 47.4 73.9 64.0 35.0 8.2 9.1 21.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 22.5 56.2 1.9 4.5 Current transfers 7,628.5 7,818.9 7,684.7 1,942.5 2,076.4 1,855.7 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,945.5 1,948.8 619.8 615.0 Subsidies 581.9 496.3 502.5 171.2 127.6 69.1 128.2 177.1 107.8 57.3 160.2 190.5 22.9 23.6 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,277.7 6,533.5 6,383.6 1,606.6 1,745.6 1,583.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.1 1,576.9 529.9 522.6 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 728.8 737.2 739.6 158.8 186.2 189.0 203.2 158.0 169.6 196.7 215.4 158.1 65.9 61.6 Current transfers abroad 40.1 52.0 59.0 5.9 17.0 14.5 14.6 13.0 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 1.1 7.2 Capital expenditures 1,310.6 1,023.5 912.3 168.8 196.5 266.5 391.6 165.3 179.2 223.4 344.5 141.7 105.5 82.5 Capital transfers 396.4 372.1 320.2 42.4 73.3 97.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 74.3 154.6 42.5 29.1 26.5 Payments to the EU budget 396.8 405.1 390.3 139.3 70.6 91.0 104.4 161.8 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 26.5 32.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,898.7 -1,564.1 -1,122.8 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2011 2012 2013 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11M 12 1 1 2 1 3 1,290.5 1,361.2 1,364.8 1,181.7 1,094.3 1,342.3 1,283.2 1,159.7 1,269.3 1,188.8 1,234.9 1,153.5 1,300.4 1,304.0 1,482.8 1,183.1 1,143.8 1,093.4 1,235.8 1,265.0 1,214.8 1,152.0 1,056.4 1,202.5 1,230.7 1,101.4 1,153.8 1,120.0 1,189.9 1,057.5 1,256.4 1,228.5 1,278.3 1,130.6 1,072.8 981.6 1,170.4 1,185.5 1,116.8 1,106.6 952.1 1,114.0 1,174.5 1,049.3 1,090.3 1,059.0 1,107.5 1,003.9 1,188.8 1,161.5 1,110.3 1,076.5 955.1 915.2 223.8 227.5 246.2 214.7 219.2 195.6 248.3 194.8 279.9 91.6 210.5 209.0 215.7 311.1 266.3 199.9 194.1 183.1 416.5 444.0 485.8 443.5 438.0 461.0 441.3 449.0 442.5 432.2 446.0 428.2 430.0 360.0 472.3 424.7 418.9 421.4 2.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 4.7 33.9 14.5 8.2 9.7 8.7 10.5 27.4 26.9 26.3 26.4 26.6 20.0 30.5 11.9 6.1 9.0 9.0 456.6 495.4 373.0 443.6 282.4 438.0 460.7 371.2 332.7 496.8 414.2 333.2 512.5 444.9 346.0 438.3 319.3 281.6 7.3 8.6 9.2 6.7 7.3 8.3 8.8 6.6 6.5 5.9 5.6 6.3 7.6 7.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 7.9 58.9 -26.3 -15.0 -12.1 -6.6 -0.7 2.7 -1.9 -0.3 4.2 3.0 -1.4 1.0 5.9 5.9 0.3 5.7 10.5 65.5 79.5 98.0 45.4 104.3 88.5 56.2 52.1 63.6 60.9 82.4 53.6 67.6 67.0 168.0 54.1 117.7 66.4 3.6 6.1 12.0 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.4 3.5 4.8 4.7 2.9 4.1 3.6 5.3 19.9 4.0 3.5 3.1 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.1 3.1 0.2 12.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 49.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 50.3 87.6 136.6 27.2 33.5 134.9 49.4 53.9 109.9 63.7 41.3 41.6 39.7 68.9 181.2 47.9 55.1 108.2 1,328.8 1,368.3 1,542.9 1,491.0 1,446.9 1,388.7 1,366.7 1,249.3 1,241.5 1,346.7 1,241.2 1,248.1 1,332.7 1,352.4 1,412.7 1,459.9 1,349.1 1,328.4 544.4 530.7 565.2 679.4 648.3 667.4 628.1 515.4 525.2 530.0 507.0 516.2 563.7 530.6 499.0 663.2 569.1 610.4 322.2 320.0 308.2 331.1 316.5 310.7 329.8 315.6 328.5 323.3 305.0 282.5 294.3 314.8 276.0 326.0 267.9 311.3 196.4 204.5 238.0 206.6 191.7 191.4 216.0 192.1 191.0 199.0 195.1 157.0 215.4 209.5 205.6 197.1 156.9 208.1 21.9 1.9 5.6 136.4 134.8 160.6 77.3 2.6 1.6 5.1 2.2 72.1 48.5 2.3 4.5 133.3 101.8 83.9 3.9 4.3 13.4 5.4 5.3 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.1 2.5 4.7 4.6 5.5 4.1 13.0 6.8 42.4 7.0 607.7 642.7 694.0 707.5 632.8 617.1 638.5 627.2 613.0 697.0 607.4 598.8 611.3 662.3 672.0 683.2 639.9 625.7 17.0 39.3 71.9 117.0 40.5 19.6 47.2 31.8 28.8 14.7 20.6 22.0 27.4 68.1 64.7 94.2 60.0 36.3 526.4 540.0 531.9 535.4 534.5 539.3 530.2 531.1 527.4 611.7 519.8 505.1 524.2 511.8 513.0 526.4 521.6 529.0 63.0 62.3 77.8 49.0 53.4 55.6 56.3 59.0 54.2 67.3 62.3 67.0 56.7 70.0 88.7 57.9 41.6 58.6 1.2 1.1 12.4 6.1 4.3 2.6 4.6 5.2 2.7 3.3 4.6 4.7 3.0 12.3 5.5 4.6 16.8 1.9 94.6 111.5 185.6 56.7 55.0 53.6 50.9 63.9 64.3 76.7 72.4 74.2 86.5 95.7 162.3 49.5 50.8 41.4 49.3 48.1 61.9 12.3 18.6 16.1 14.3 10.2 19.8 23.5 24.5 26.3 43.3 41.6 69.7 12.6 11.9 17.9 32.8 35.3 36.2 35.1 92.2 34.6 34.9 32.5 19.1 19.5 29.9 32.6 27.9 22.2 9.8 51.3 77.5 33.0 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoE - Bank of England, BoJ -Bank of Japan, BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ES - European Council, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS -Employment Service of Slovenia, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ifo - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, Libor - London Interbank Offered Rate, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, OP RČV, - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PRS - Slovenian Business Register, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refinedpetroleum products, 20 -Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29 - Manufactureof motorvehicles,trailersand semi-trailers, 30 - Manufactureof othertransportequipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror May 2013, No. 5, Vol. XIX