Slovenian Economic Mirror J imad Economic Analyses/March 2008 No. 3, Vol. XIV Slovenian Economic Mirror presents current macroeconomic developments as well as selected economic, social and environmental issues. The publication consists of articles, which present the main economic indicators, assess the realisation of the spring and autumn forecasts, and monitor implementation of economic policies (earnings, public finance, prices, competitiveness, etc.). The periodical is published monthly, except in September. This issue of Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Marijana Bednaš (In the Spotlight), Lejla Fajić (Gross Domestic Product), Jure Brložnik (International Environment), Slavica Jurančič (Price and Cost Competitiveness, Competitiveness - Market Shares), Jože Markič (Balance of Payments), Miha Trošt (Price Trends & Policy), Marjan Hafner (Money Market - Household Savings, Money Market -Loans), Jasna Kondža (General Government Revenue, Expenditure and Deficit), Tomaž Kraigher (Labour Market), Saša Kovačič (Earnings), Katarina Ivas (Manufacturing), Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Distributive Trade, Tourism), Barbara Ferk (Private Consumption and Household Indebtedness), Janja Pečar (Population's Economic Strength by Regions), Mateja Kovač (Agriculture - Purchase Prices). Director: Boštjan Vasle. Editor in Chief: Luka Žakelj. Translator: Marija Kavčič. Language Editing: Translation and Interpretation Division of the Secretariat-General of the Government of the RS. Technical Editor: Ema Bertina Kopitar. Statistical Appendix, Data Preparation & Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman. Distribution: Katja Ferfolja. Printed by: Tiskarna Štrok. Concept & Design: Sandi Radovan, Studio DVA. Circulation: 500 copies. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Gregorčičeva 27, 1000 Ljubljana (+386 1) 478 10 12 fax: 478 10 70 Editor in chief: luka.zakeli@gov.si Translator: mariia.kavčič@gov.si Distribution: publicistika.umar@gov.si SEM can be found on the Internet at http://www.gov.si/aindex/. Publication is included in Ebsco Publishing Database and Internet Securities Database. © Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, 1995-2008. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 2 In the Spotlight The spring forecast for 2008 projects slowdown in economic growth and easing in inflation pressures p. 3 Gross Domestic Product Economic growth slowed in the final quarter of 2007, as expected, but yearly growth was still the highest since 1991 p. 4 International Environment According to the latest forecasts, at least in the first half of 2008 the impact of the financial crisis will not contribute to an additional slowdown of economic growth in the EMU p. 5 Price and Cost Competitiveness Deterioration of price and cost competitiveness in 2007 p. 6 Competitiveness - Market Shares High growth of market shares on the markets of EU trading partners in 2007 p. 7 Balance of Payments In January, current account deficit increased substantially due to the deterioration of the balance of trade in goods and services p. 8 Trade in Services The surplus in trade in services exceeded EUR 1 bn for the first time, also due to structural improvements p. 9 Price Trends & Policy Measures of core inflation show increase over the past few months p. 10 Money Market -Household Savings Mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded the highest net outflows to date p. 11 Money Market - Loans Lending activity of banks picked up again in January p. 12 General Government Revenue, Expenditure and Deficit General government deficit for 2007 estimated at 0.1% GDP, the lowest figure since 1995 p. 13 Labour Market Favourable trends on the labour market continued also at the beginning of 2008 p. 14 Earnings January's wage levels lower in private and public sector p. 15 Manufacturing Industrial production continues to slow down p. 16 Distributive Trade Last year's growth of value added in trade the highest since 1991 p. 17 Tourism The number of overnight stays exceeded 8 m for the first time after 1991 p. 18 Private Consumption and Household Indebtedness Differences between real consumption growth and growth of disposable income last year higher than anticipated p. 19 SELECTED TOPICS Population's Economic Strength by Regions Slow decline in regional disparities in population's economic strength p. 23 Agriculture - Purchase Prices Growth of prices picked up last year; forecasts are mainly linked to new crops p. 24 Data: (pp. A 1-12), Main indicators (p. A 13), International Comparisons (pp. A 14-15), Graphs (pp. A 16-17). Selected indicators of current economic developments, change in % Latest data Compared to the previous month same period of previous year latest data pre-latest data pre-pre latest data Industrial production (value based) I 7.5 1.2 6.6 7.2 Manufacturing I 7.2 1.3 8.0 8.5 Electricity, gas and water supply I 10.9 -5.4 -11.1 -10.0 Value of construction put in place, real terms I -11.4 39.9 18.2 21.7 Exports of goods (nominal terms)1 I 13.8 10.5 16.1 17.2 Imports of goods (nominal terms)1 I 5.4 15.9 17.9 19.3 Real effective exchange rate2 I 0.1 4.4 2.3 2.2 Gross wage per employee, real terms I -1.3 -1.3 2.2 2.4 Total household savings in banks,3 nominal terms I 0.7 9.8 9.5 7.7 General government revenue, real terms II -2.8 5.5 4.1 4.0 Number of persons in paid employment I 0.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 Number of registered unemployed II -3.2 -13.6 -13.4 -16.9 Number of job vacancies II 1.8 19.4 11.7 6.6 Month current previous pre-previous Registered unemployment rate | I 7.4 7.3 7.3 Month current cumulative annual4 Consumer prices III 1.3 1.3 6.9 Producer prices (domestic market) II 1.3 2.1 5.6 Sources of data: SORS, BS, ESS, estimates and calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments' statistics; 2euro exchange rate for Slovenia measured by relative consumer prices; the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; 3the year-on-year growth rate is defined as the ratio between the stock at the end of the current month and the stock in the same month of the previous year; 4total in the last 12 months. In the Spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 3 The strong economic growth in 2007 was favourable in terms of development. In the supportive international environment in 2007, the strong economic growth from 2006 (5.7%) accelerated even more rapidly and was the highest since Slovenia gained independence (6.1%). In addition to strong economic fundamentals, the economic growth was supported by the effects of adopted reforms, particularly in the field of taxation. Exports of goods and services and high domestic investment activity were the main drivers of economic growth. Looking at specific activities, the main contributors to growth were manufacturing and construction; the favourable trends in both activities also had a positive effect on the growth of certain market services (see p.4). The spring forecast projects that economic growth will slow to 4.4% this year. The expected real GDP growth rate is much lower than those achieved in 2006 and 2007 (5.7% and 6.1%, respectively), though it remains approximately at the level of the average growth rate recorded in the past five years. The slowdown is strongly related to the cooling in the international environment and is largely cyclical in nature, since growth will decrease mainly in activities that recorded the fastest growth also in 2007 and 2006. These activities are exports and gross fixed capital formation on the expenditure side and construction, manufacturing, trade and financial intermediation on the supply side. Such trends were expected; given that the situation in the international environment has moderated more than anticipated in autumn, the economic growth for 2008 projected in the spring forecast is somewhat lower than in the autumn forecast (4.6%). The structure of economic growth will change somewhat in comparison with last year. The contribution of investment activity will decrease, whereas the contribution of private and government expenditure will rise. Despite a lower rise, exports will remain the main driver of economic growth also in 2008. Real growth in exports of goods and services will be at 9.7% and will depend crucially on the economic situation in the international environment. Further positive effects of the high growth of vehicle exports are expected particularly in the first quarter. The contribution of gross fixed capital formation to economic growth will be much lower than last year (real growth of gross fixed capital formation will ease off from 17.2% to 5.4 %), since high growth rates in construction investment that were recorded last year are projected to slow down and investment in machinery and equipment will remain roughly at the level of 2007. The contributions of private and government consumption, which recorded a subdued growth last year, will pick up. Despite the anticipated lower real growth of total disposable income, the real growth of private consumption (increase by 0.5 p.p. to 3.6%) will be partially underpinned by differences in wage growth rates as a result of the beginning of the elimination of wage disparities in the public sector and implementation of income tax relief at the beginning of the year. Disposable income will thus increase relatively more for groups of people with a higher propensity to consume. The growth rate of general government consumption will pick up in real terms, largely owing to the higher number of employees (the Slovenian presidency of the EU) and relatively higher expenditure on goods and services. Due to weaker economic growth, employment growth will also gradually slow down this year. Largely owing to the high level at the beginning of the year, employment growth will be relatively high for the year as a whole (1.1%), though appreciably lower than last year. Further growth is expected in business services and in some activities of public services and construction (albeit much lower than last year), whereas in manufacturing and other basic activities the number of employees is projected to decline. Registered and survey unemployment rates (7.7% and 4.8%, respectively) will continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in 2007. Growth of wages in 2008 will be higher than in 2007, largely as a result of the higher wage increase in the public sector due to the beginning of the elimination of wage disparities. According to the agreed wage increases in the public and private sectors, the real growth of the gross wage per employee will be somewhat higher (2.4 %) than last year (2.2%). The real growth of wages in the private sector will moderate appreciably as a result of subdued economic activity. After four years of relatively modest growth, the real growth of wages in the public sector will be notably stronger than last year, largely owing to the agreed beginning of the elimination of wage disparities. The nominal wage increase will accelerate at a relatively faster pace (forecast for 2008: 7.7%, last year: 5.9%); the nominal growth will exceed the foreseen nominal labour productivity growth (7.2%) by 0.5 p.p. At the end of 2008, year-on-year inflation is expected to be lower than in 2007. In the first three months of 2008, year-on-year inflation kept increasing (up to 6.9% in March). In addition to the effects of the process of real convergence, high rises in prices are still mainly attributable to high growth rates of commodity prices. As in 2007, prices in the food, transport and housing groups, which are crucially determined by the price dynamics on global markets, recorded the greatest deviations among all price index groups with the highest year-on-year growth rates. A somewhat faster growth of prices than in 2007 was also observed in some other groups of the price index. The spring forecast of inflation for 2008 projects that year-on-year inflation will gradually decrease to 4.0% at the end of the year, whereas the average inflation will be higher than last year (5.2%), largely due to the high rates recorded in the second half of 2007. According to the analyses of international institutions, the contribution of food prices to inflation is expected to be smaller this year. Inflation pressures will also decrease due to the anticipated slowdown in economic activity. Price policy measures will have a positive impact on the growth of prices as well. We do not expect any upward pressures on inflation arising from changes in taxation and excise duties. Despite the somewhat less restrictively oriented wage and fiscal policies, the current macroeconomic framework still enables the projected gradual reduction of inflation. However, a higher increase in wages, well above the productivity growth, or a faster rise in general government expenditure than anticipated are key risks to the realisation of the central inflation forecast due to their direct effects as well as through consequent higher inflation expectations and secondary effects. A high current account deficit is also anticipated this year. It will be driven by a higher deficit of trade in goods, largely owing to the deteriorated terms of trade, and a deficit in factor incomes due to the expected higher payment of interest on external debt. The growth of the surplus in services trade is set to continue, and the current transfers balance is expected to improve. The current account deficit is thus anticipated to total 4.6% of GDP in 2008, only 0.2 p.p. less than in 2007. Gross Domestic Product Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 4 Real year-on-year growth rates, in % 1 2006 2007 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Gross domestic product 5.7 6.1 7.2 6.0 6.4 4.7 Private consumption 4.0 3.1 2.4 2.1 4.7 3.3 Government consumption 4.4 1.4 0.7 0.4 1.7 2.7 Gross capital investment 9.9 17.8 20.0 26.6 19.6 7.6 Gross fixed capital investment 8.4 17.2 21.2 21.8 18.7 8.6 Change in inventories and valuables 2 0.6 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 Exports of goods and services 12.3 13.0 14.9 13.0 15.1 9.3 Imports of goods and service 12.2 14.1 14.4 16.2 18.2 8.6 Source of data: SORS. Note: 1 seasonally non-adjusted data. 2 Contribution to GDP growth, in p.p. Economic growth in the final quarter of 2007 eased off mainly due to the weaker growth of exports and investment. On the supply side, the weaker growth of exports was accompanied by a slowdown in manufacturing activity, and on the investment side by a slowdown in civil engineering and transport equipment. As in the previous quarters, these two components were nevertheless the main drivers of GDP growth in 2007 (see graph). Lower rises in exports of goods and services in the fourth quarter were expected, given the slowdown in the international environment; in the EU, economic growth slowed down from 2.9% to 2.6%, the lowest figure last year (in the EMU from 2.6% to 2.2%, year on year, seasonally non-adjusted). The softening in the global economy and lower growth of investment in civil engineering, in particular, resulted also in a decline in the growth of investment in the final quarter. Only residential building construction increased at a similar pace as in the previous quarters (around 20%) and accelerated significantly relative to the previous year (from 1.6 %). Despite the slowdown in the final quarter, exports and investment were the main drivers of the strong economic growth last year (6.1%). Investment increased by 17.2% in real terms and was largely (a good half) underpinned by the increase in investment in civil engineering and non-residential building, even though it eased off towards the end of the year. In 2007, Slovenia's exports of goods recorded only slightly lower real growth than in 2006 (12.5% compared to 13.4%). The contribution of exports to the EU increased, owing to the higher contribution of exports to new EU members. In the final quarter of 2007, the growth of services exports decelerated significantly; in 2007 as a whole, it was nevertheless much higher than in 2006 (by a real 15.5% relative to 7.3%), largely as a result of the increase in financial and construction services and merchanting. The total growth of exports in 2007 was therefore also somewhat higher than in 2006. The real growth of government and private consumption moderated in 2007 relative to 2006 and was very low particularly in the first six months. In the second half of the year it accelerated, which was already evidenced by some short-term indicators of household consumption (see p. 19). Due to the deceleration of exports and investment in machinery and equipment, the growth of imports of goods and services also eased off in the fourth quarter, but was higher than in 2006 considering the year as a whole. In the imports of services, the highest increase in demand was recorded in similar types of services as for exports (see p. 9). The growth of value added in 2007 was strongly influenced by international demand and construction activity and slowed down throughout the year (7.2%, 6.6%, 6.4%, 4.6%) following the dynamics in manufacturing and construction activities (see graph) and certain market services that are partly related to these activities. Due to the favourable international trends, all export-oriented manufacturing industries strengthened until mid-year; moreover, high construction activity also had a positive effect on the mainly domestic-market-oriented manufacture of non-metal mineral products, wood-processing and metal industries. Due to a gradual decline in foreign demand and lower construction activity, growth slowed in all manufacturing activities in the second half of the year, except in the chemical industry and manufacture of transport equipment, where it picked up. Within market services, the favourable trends in industry and construction had a positive effect on the activity of wholesale trade, the sale of non-food products, business services and road freight traffic, where long-term above-average growth rates were posted at the annual level despite the slowdown in the final quarter. If we look at market services, the growth of value added also increased in financial intermediation and showed no visible signs of easing at the end of the year. Within public services, a slowdown in value added growth was observed for the third consecutive year and was accompanied by a drop in the number of employees in the armed forces and secondary education, along with a modest increase in primary education and health care. Graph 1: Expenditure structure of GDP growth, contributions to year-on-year growth in percentage points Graph 2: Production structure of GDP growth, contributions to year-on-year growth in percentage points 20 15 10 U) £= ô 5 - -3 -6 1 0 £ <5 ,2 > w E E 3 Z> LU Z> S LU E o a: E o O Source of data: Eurostat. Note: Data for Greece is for 2005. 6 3 0 Price Trends and Policy Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 10 2007 2008 Price indices XII 2007/ O (I 07-XII 07)/ II 2008/ II 2008/ O (III 07—II 08)/ XII 2006 O (I 06-XII 06) I 2008 II 2007 O (III 06—II 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 105.6 103.6 100.0 106.5 104.3 Goods 106.0 103.2 99.8 107.2 104.2 Fuel and energy 109.8 103.1 96.8 112.1 105.4 Other 105.2 103.2 100.5 106.1 103.9 Services 104.8 104.5 100.4 105.2 104.6 Consumer prices (HICP) 105.7 103.8 99.9 106.4 104.4 Administered prices1 107.2 102.6 97.8 110.2 103.5 Energy 109.6 102.7 96.6 115.2 104.7 Other 101.5 102.4 100.0 100.3 101.1 Core inflation: - trimmean 103.2 102.3 99.9 104.3 102.7 - excluding food & energy 104.0 102.7 100.6 104.7 103.1 Consumer prices in the EMU 103.1 102.1 100.3 103.3 102.4 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers: - domestic market 106.3 105.4 101.3 105.5 105.7 - EMU 100.9 105.0 100.9 101.9 104.1 Sources of data: CPI, HICP, IPI: SORS; administered prices and core inflation: IMAD estimate; MUICP in the EU: Eurostat (provisional data) and IMAD recalculation. Note: figures are not directly comparable between years due to the annual changes of the administered prices index. Consumer price movements in February were moderate. After several months of high growth, price rises recorded a relative slowdown. No major divergences were observed between individual price groups. Consumer prices did not change on average (compared to -0.2% in 2007), whereas year-on-year inflation increased by 0.1 p.p. to 6.5% due to the base effect (compared to 2.1% in February 2007). Rising food and energy prices remain the key drivers behind the high year-on-year inflation; nevertheless, different measures of core inflation for the last few months indicate that it is increasing. Prices of liquid fuels dropped in February, whereas prices that are subject to seasonal swings increased. As a result of global market trends, prices of liquid fuels recorded the largest drop (which resulted in a decrease in inflation by 0.3 p.p.); after rising continuously for seven months, prices of food dropped somewhat as well (inflation therefore decreased by 0.1 p.p.) Prices of clothing and footwear, however, increased owing to usual seasonal swings at this time (causing an increase in inflation by 0.2 p.p.). Core inflation has risen over the last few months. Even though rising prices of food and liquid fuels for transport and heating, which contributed 3.6 p.p. to February's 6.5% year-on-year inflation, remain the main factors of high domestic price rises, the measures of domestic core inflation indicate a gradual increase over the last months, which signifies that prices in other groups of the price index rose somewhat as well; to a certain extent, this might be a result of secondary effects of the high prices of oil, food and other primary commodities last year. Producer prices on the domestic market were up 1.3% in February (compared to 2.1% in 2007). Approximately two thirds of this increase can be attributed to electricity prices (higher prices of electricity on the global market and the conclusion of new futures contracts between companies and electricity distributors), which rose by 7.8% (compared to 19.6% in February 2007). Relative to January, the y-o-y growth of producer prices on the domestic market dropped from 6.5 to 5.6%, mainly as a result of the lower monthly growth of electricity prices in February 2008 in comparison with February 2007. Price surges in the manufacture of food, beverages and livestock feed and electricity remain the key drivers behind the rise in prices and contributed about 70% to the y-o-y growth of prices in February. Graph 1: Year-on-year inflation Graph 2: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation into _price groups_ 7 6 5 4 - 1 0 0 Liquid fuels for transport and heating d Food I i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO d o. > c >• Q-> d >. o.> s= >. ^ o. > Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. o «z ■ Onj Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 Money Market - Household Savings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 11 Household savings in banks and in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators EUR m, nominal Nominal growth rates, in % 31. XII 2007 31.I 2008 31. I 2008/ 31. XII 2007 31. I 2008/ 31. I 2007 31. I 2007/ 31. I 2006* Total savings in banks 12,541.8 12,628.1 0.7 9.8 8.0 Domestic currency savings 12,164.2 12,253.8 0.7 10.8 N/A Overnight deposits1 5,244.4 5,157.1 -1.7 -0.5 N/A Short-term deposits 4,941.7 5,065.3 2.5 14.7 N/A Long-term deposits 1,246.0 1,250.3 0.3 13.3 N/A Deposits redeemable at notice 732.1 781.2 6.7 122.6 N/A Foreign currency savings 377.6 374.2 -0.9 -16.6 N/A Overnight deposits1 143.4 136.3 -4.9 -31.8 N/A Short-term deposits 170.7 174.2 2.0 -9.4 N/A Long-term deposits 40.0 38.8 -3.0 -18.0 N/A Deposits redeemable at notice 23.5 24.9 6.1 170.1 N/A Mutual funds 2,924.4 2,622.2 -10.3 22.5 49.2 Source of data: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1demand deposits; *due to the transfer of euro loans to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore meaningless. The volume of household bank savings picked up also in January. Euro savings are still rising, whereas foreign currency savings have declined for the eighth consecutive month in response to lower interest rates. The volume of foreign currency deposits was around one sixth lower than in January last year and accounted for close to 3% of all household deposits in banks. In January, the year-on-year growth of deposits approached 10% again. The volume of time deposits continues to rise and has increased by 2.5% at the monthly level and by almost one fifth year on year. Higher-interest-bearing deposits redeemable at notice posted the highest monthly growth. Surging by 6.7%, they recorded the highest increase in the past five months. Their year-on-year growth achieved 123.8%. Their share in the structure climbed to 6.4%, which is 3.3 p.p. more than the year before. Short-term deposits recorded the average growth of all household time deposits at the monthly level, while long-term deposits increased by a mere 0.2%. In January, the total net inflows of household deposits in banks rose to EUR 86.3 m, 58.3% more than the year before. The vigorous growth is largely related to the decrease in net outflows from overnight deposits this year, which could also be attributed to the transfer of a portion of net outflows from mutual funds to overnight deposits. On the other hand, net flows of time deposits, totalling EUR 180.7 m, fell by 7% over January last year. Within that, short-term deposits account for the largest share (a good 70%). Whereas the volume of assets in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators had never dropped by more than 5% in the last ten years, it fell by a good tenth in January, recording a decrease in the amount of more than EUR 300 m. Consequently, the year-on-year growth rate more than halved compared to that at the end of last year. The decline was mainly (over 85% on average) due to negative trends in domestic and international capital markets, largely as a result of the international financial turmoil. Index funds recorded the highest drop in assets (by a good quarter) among the mutual funds, as a consequence of substantial net outflows rather than losses in capital markets. Due to their two-third share, stock mutual funds, which recorded an 11.3% drop in assets, contributed by far the most to the overall decline, together with balanced funds, which posted an 8.9% drop. On the other hand, assets of less risky bond and money market mutual funds increased by 1.6 and 28.6%, respectively; the former even recorded positive returns at the beginning of the year. The net outflows did not contribute significantly to the decrease in the volume of assets in mutual funds; achieving EUR 37.4 m (within that, almost three quarters from stock mutual funds), they nevertheless recorded the highest value so far. Graph: Net flows to mutual funds □ Funds of funds □ Money market mutual funds ■ Index funds □ Balanced funds □ Bond funds □ Stock funds Source of data: Securities Market Agency; calculations by IMAD. Money Market - Loans Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 12 Domestic bank loans Nominal amounts, in EUR m Nominal loan growth, in % 31. XII 2007 31. I 2008 31. I 2007/ 31. XII 2007 31. I 2008/ 31.I 2007 31. I 2007/ 31. I 2006* Loans total 26,745.2 27,424.3 2.5 33.5 24.5 Domestic currency loans 24,826.5 25,363.2 2.2 29.8 N/A Enterprises and NFI 18,512.6 19,024.7 2.8 35.1 N/A Households 5,785.3 5,814.3 0.5 19.4 N/A Government 528.6 524.3 -0.8 -10.3 N/A Foreign currency loans 1,918.7 2,061.0 7.4 105.1 N/A Enterprises and NFI 869.1 940.1 8.2 117.9 N/A Households 1,036.2 1,103.8 6.5 97.4 N/A Government 13,4 17.2 27.9 19.9 N/A Household loans by purpose 6,821.5 6,918.1 1.4 27.5 25.0 Consumer credits 2,742.6 2,767.3 0.9 20.4 16.1 Lending for house purchase 2,671.1 2,736.9 2.5 38.1 42.2 Other lending 1,407.9 1,413.9 0.4 23.2 18.4 Source of data: BS Bulletin, calculations by IMAD. Notes: NFI - non-monetary financial institutions; *due to the transfer of euro loans to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore meaningless. The lending activity of domestic banks picked up again in January, after having eased off considerably at the end of the year. Household borrowing, as well as borrowing by enterprises and NFI, increased in comparison with December. After ranging around 15% on average last year, the share of net flows of foreign currency loans exceeded 20% this January, most likely due to the fact that the difference between EURIBOR and LIBOR (tied to the Swiss franc) for comparable maturity increased. The total net flows amounted to EUR 679.1 m, almost twice as much as in the same month last year and a quarter above the average monthly level last year. The volume of loans to enterprises and NFI recorded a 3.0% growth in January, the highest in the last six months. The growth rate of foreign currency loans was almost three times higher than that of euro loans; however, the latter still accounted for almost 90% of all net flows. In January, enterprises and NFI recorded net borrowing from domestic banks in the amount of EUR 583.0 m, almost two thirds more than in the same month last year. Relative to January 2007, the greatest differences were observed in investment loans, where enterprises and NFI recorded net borrowing in an amount of more than EUR 70 m this year compared to repayment totalling EUR 35 m last year. Net flows of loans for other purposes also increased. Totalling EUR 123.6 m, they were more than two fifths higher than in the same month last year. On the other hand, net flows of working capital loans declined by almost 15%; nevertheless, they still accounted for almost two thirds of net flows of loans of enterprises and NFI taken out in domestic banks. In January, corporate borrowing abroad totalled EUR 39.6 m, which is almost 40% of the value recorded last January. Domestic banks' net borrowing abroad slowed notably in January and totalled EUR 60.5 m, which is the lowest value in the last 10 months, though still 40% higher than in January 2007, when this kind of financing was less needed owing to the assets released upon the maturing of BS' bills falling due. A large part of banks' borrowing abroad in January was obviously intended for refinancing short-term loans taken out in the previous months and net repaid in the amount of EUR 145.5 m. Following net repayment of loans in December, household borrowing picked up again in January. Households recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 96.6 m, twice as much as in the same month last year, yet still around 20% below last year's monthly average. A breakdown by purpose indicates strengthened housing loans, accounting for more than two thirds of monthly net flows, which was the highest rise in the last 12 months. The net flows of consumer loans and loans for other purposes were relatively modest. The currency structure of net household borrowing saw a shift in January. Whereas foreign currency loans accounted for about one third of all net flows last year, their share rose to as much as 70% in January. Similar relationships in the growth of loans in Slovenia and in the EMU continued also in January. The volume of loans in the euro area (excluding Cyprus) achieved a 0.9% monthly growth, largely as a result of corporate and NFI borrowing. The volume of these loans increased by 1.7%, most likely due to seasonal factors, as in the last three years the growth rate of corporate loans in January has hovered between 1.7 and 1.8% at the monthly level. Graph: Net flows of loans to non-banking sectors 800 700 600 Œ O 500 E 400 (H u 300 200 100 0 -100 I Government loans □ Loans to enterprises and NFI i Household loans Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. General Government Revenue, Expenditure and Deficit Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 13 General government revenue, expenditure and deficit In EUR m Nominal index Share in GDP, % 20061 2007 2006/2005 2007/2006 2006 2007 General government revenue (A) 13,413 14,496 106.7 108.1 44.1 43.2 Revenue from sales of goods and services in the market 847 915 102.7 108.0 2.8 2.7 Taxes on production and imports 4,635 5,021 104.2 108.3 15.2 15.0 Property income, receivable 193 235 86.0 121.4 0.6 0.7 Current taxes on income and wealth 2,836 3,016 113.7 106.3 9.3 9.0 Social contributions 4,417 4,800 106.3 108.7 14.5 14.3 Other current transfers 424 363 111.7 85.5 1.4 1.1 Taxes on capital 6 9 70.8 153.8 0.0 0.0 Capital transfers 55 138 151.7 251.3 0.2 0.4 General government expenditure (B) 13,791 14,520 106.2 105.3 45.3 43.3 Intermediate consumption 1,946 2,056 109.5 105.6 6.4 6.1 Compensation of employees 3,480 3,640 105.3 104.6 11.4 10.9 Other taxes on production 135 114 86.4 84.8 0.4 0.3 Subsidies 504 490 111.4 97.3 1.7 1.5 Property income, payable 433 441 96.8 102.0 1.4 1.3 Current taxes on income and wealth. 1 15 - - 0.0 0.0 Social benefits in cash and kind 5,363 5,595 105.5 104.3 17.6 16.7 Other current transfers 608 656 102.0 107.8 2.0 2.0 Capital transfers 236 267 84.0 113.4 0.8 0.8 Gross capital formation 1,147 1,240 125.5 108.1 3.8 3.7 Net acquisitions of non-produced, non-financial assets -63 6 - - -0.2 0.0 General government deficit (A minus B) -377 -24 - - -1.2 -0.1 Source of data: SORS, Main aggregates of the General Government 2004-2007, 31 March 2008. _Note: Calculation at the fixed exchange rate 239.64 SIT/EUR._ The general government deficit in 2007 is estimated1 at 0.1% of GDP, which is the lowest figure since 1995. In 2007, the public finance situation improved significantly, as total general government revenue recorded a much higher nominal growth (8.1%) than total expenditure (5.3%). The rises in both were below the nominal GDP growth (10.2%). Relative to 2006, the general government deficit fell by as much as 1.1% of GDP in 2007. Total general government revenue is estimated at EUR 14,496 m. In 2007, its share in GDP decreased by 0.9 p.p. (to 43.2% from 44.1% of GDP in 2006). On the general government revenue side the growth was stimulated by favourable macroeconomic trends; the nominal growth of revenues was also underpinned by inflation that was higher than projected. All main categories of revenues as a whole recorded a slower growth than GDP. Due to changes in personal and corporate income tax legislation, the share of current taxes on income and wealth decreased by 0.3% of GDP. The share of revenues from social security contributions decreased by 0.2% of GDP. Even though they otherwise recorded the largest rise of all revenues in 2007 - also due to the increased number of wage recipients - their growth still lagged behind the 1 On 31 March 2008, SORS released revised data on the main categories of general government revenue and expenditure and the current government deficit for 2004-2007. The revision comprised further methodological harmonisation with ESA 95 (European System of Accounts) and a new estimate of the general government aggregates for 2007. economic growth. The share of taxes on production and imports decreased by 0.3% of GDP as a result of the gradual lowering of the payroll tax. Within the taxes on production and imports, the faster growth of revenue from excise duties replaced the somewhat slower growth of revenue from VAT that followed the moderate real growth of household (3.1%) and government (1.4%) consumption. Revenue from other current transfers decreased by 0.3% of GDP. Only the share of non-tax revenues increased, the revenues from interest by 0.1% of GDP and from capital transfers by 0.2% of GDP. Total general government expenditure in 2007 is estimated at EUR 14,520 m; its share in GDP decreased by as much as 2 p.p. in 2007 (from 45.3% of GDP in 2006 to 43.3%). The share of social benefits in cash recorded the largest drop (by 0.9% of GDP) due to the implementation of a uniform mechanism for their adjustment with inflation (excluding pensions). Furthermore, the share of the compensation of employees decreased by 0.6% of GDP as the result of a slower growth of the number of employees (0.3%) and a low growth of wages per employee in the public sector in 2007 (0.5%). The share of intermediate consumption in GDP and the share of expenditure on subsidies decreased by 0.3% and 0.2% of GDP, respectively. Minor decreases (by 0.1 p.p. of GDP) were also observed in the share of expenditure on interest payments, in other taxes on production due to the phased abolition of payroll tax, and in gross fixed capital formation. The shares of other current and capital transfers did not change. Graph: General government revenue, expenditure and deficit, in % of BDP 49 48 47 46 è 45 - 0 44 . 1 43 H ^ 42 -■ 41 -■ 40 4 39 ] General government revenue - left axis Q O General government expenditure - left axis 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 - General government deficit - right axis Sources of data: SORS, National accounts, Main Aggregates of the General Government 2004-2007, 31. March 2008, Non-Financial Sector Accounts (for 20002003); calculations by IMAD. Labour Market Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 14 Thousands of people Growth, in % Selected labour market indicators I-XII I XII I I 2008/ I 2008/ O 2007/ 2007 2007 2007 2008 XII 2007 I 2007 O 2006 Registered labour force (A=B+C) 925.3 918.0 932.8 936.6 0.4 2.0 1.6 Persons in formal employment* 854.0 838.0 864.4 867.3 0.3 3.5 3.5 in enterprises and organisations 696.1 682.8 705.9 707.8 0.3 3.7 3.1 by those self-employed 69.9 66.7 70.8 70.2 -0.9 5.2 5.1 self-employed and farmers 87.9 88.5 87.7 89.4 2.0 1.0 5.6 Registered unemployed 71.3 80.0 68.4 69.2 1.2 -13.4 -16.9 women 39.1 43.2 36.7 36.9 0.4 -14.7 -16.7 aged over 40 37.1 39.0 36.3 37.0 1.7 -5.3 -6.5 unemployed more than 1 year 36.5 39.6 34.7 34.7 -0.1 -12.4 -12.8 Rate of reg. unemployment (C/A), in % 7.7 8.7 7.3 7.4 - - - male 6.3 7.2 6.1 6.2 - - - female 9.6 10.6 8.9 8.9 - - - Job vacancies 20.2 20.0 14.2 22.4 6.6 11.7 6.6 for a fixed term, in % 76.3 77.1 69.8 71.9 - - - Number of persons hired 13.3 13.5 9.7 14.5 2.6 7.5 2.6 lower education 4.1 3.5 2.6 4.2 5.2 18.6 5.2 secondary education 7.2 7.7 5.6 7.9 1.7 2.1 1.7 tertiary education 2.0 2.2 1.5 2.4 1.1 8.3 1.1 Sources of data: SORS, ESS, calculations by IMAD. Note: 'persons in employment according to administrative sources. Favourable trends on the labour market continue. After December's drop owing to dismissals of workers employed for a fixed term, employment rebounded somewhat in January, especially in companies and organisations and among individual private entrepreneurs, whereas the remarkable increase in the number of farmers was of a more statistical character again this year. Due to the increased number of unemployed persons in January as a result of December's seasonal layoffs, the registered unemployment rate rose to 7.4% in January, but the number of unemployed declined again in February. The inflow to unemployment was the smallest recorded in the last years. More people were hired than dismissed. The number of persons in formal employment rose by 0.3% (by 0.4% according to seasonally adjusted figures) or by almost 3,000 persons in January. The number of persons employed by legal entities increased by 1,889 or 0.3%, whereas the number of those employed by natural persons decreased seasonally (by 648 or 0.9%). The increase in the number of farmers (by 1,571 or 4.7%) is largely statistical in nature (estimated according to the labour force survey for the previous quarter); the number of other self-employed persons increased by 169 or 0.3%. Owing to the increase in the statistical number of farmers, the highest rise in employment was recorded in agriculture. A significant increase was recorded also in business services, construction, transport, education and public administration. At the year-on-year level, the number of persons in employment remained 3.5% higher. Following an increase in January, the number of registered unemployed declined again in February. Only 4,256 new persons registered as unemployed (which is the smallest monthly inflow in the last 15 years); within that, 640 persons were first-time job-seekers, 3,400 signed up because they lost work and 216 persons were transferred back to the central register from other records. Work was found by 4,167 unemployed persons, while 2,330 persons were struck off the register for other reasons or moved to other records. Consequently, the number of registered unemployed dropped to 66,997 by the end of February, which is 3.2% or 2,241 less than in January. The number of work permits for foreigners decreased in January and totalled 65,835, 230 or 0.3% less than in December. The decrease is mainly due to a smaller number of seasonal work permits for construction works totalling 3,826, 1,361 less than in December. In most other categories, the number of work permits was higher in January than in December. In March, the government fixed the quota of work permits for 2008. It amounts to 24,600, which is 4,900 less than the latest quota in force for 2007. This year the quota of work permits for seasonal work of foreigners (8,000) is higher than last year (5,830). Graph: Number of valid work permits for foreigners by months, 2004-2007 70 60 in ■u c ro S 50 40 30 •2004 ■2005 ■2006 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec •2007 Source of data: ESS. B C D E F Earnings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 15 Gross wage per employee, growth index Wages in EUR I 2008 In nominal terms In real terms1 I 08/XII 07 I 08/I 07 I 08/XII 07 I 08/I 07 Gross wage per employee, total 1,326.19 98.8 106.1 98.7 99.7 Private sector (activities A-K) 1,263.35 98.7 106.9 98.6 100.5 A Agriculture 1 ,1 1 9.72 100.0 108.7 99.9 102.2 B Fisheries 1,032.36 99.4 102.5 99.3 96.4 C Mining and quarrying 1,604.84 90.3 105.9 90.2 99.5 D Manufacturing 1 ,1 81 .1 6 101.4 106.1 101.3 99.7 E Electricity, gas, and water supply 1,662.89 89.9 108.1 89.8 101.6 F Construction 1,092.27 101.2 107.3 101.1 100.8 G Distributive trades 1,199.63 97.4 106.5 97.3 100.1 H Hotels and restaurants 993.39 98.2 110.6 98.1 104.0 I Transport, storage & communications 1,423.47 99.1 107.5 99.0 101.0 J Financial intermediation 1,917.69 93.3 106.7 93.3 100.3 K Real estate, renting, business services 1,433.17 96.9 108.1 96.8 101.6 Public services (activities L-O) 1,449.19 99.0 104.5 98.9 98.2 L Public administration 1 ,549.38 99.2 106.8 98.9 100.4 M Education 1 ,563.05 99.3 103.1 99.2 96.9 N Health and social work 1 ,437.60 99.2 103.6 99.1 97.4 O Other social and personal services 1 ,465.74 97.4 105.0 97.3 98.7 Source of data: SORS and IMAD calculations for the private sector and public services. Note: deflated by the consumer price index. In January, the gross wage per employee decreased by 1.2% in nominal terms and by 1.3% in real terms from December (consumer prices increased by 0.1%). The decrease in earnings was due to the higher December level as a result of the disbursement of 13th month payments, Christmas bonuses and performance bonuses. Due to two working days more in January, the decline was somewhat smaller than it might have been. These two factors affected the wage dynamics in the private sector, in particular, where the gross wage per employee fell by 1.3% in nominal and by 1.4% in real terms. The length of the working month is especially important in the group of industry and construction activities (C, D, E, F), where the gross wage increased by 0.4% in nominal terms owing to manufacturing and construction, the only activities whose gross earnings recorded a nominal increase in January. Gross earnings in production services (G, H, I) decreased by 2 % in nominal terms. The highest decrease in gross earnings (by 4.2%) was recorded in business services (J, K), for in both activities the share of workers who received extraordinary payments at the end of the year was higher than the average. The gross wage in public services (L to O) decreased by 1% in January due to individual performance bonuses paid at the end of the year. The decline was approximately the same in all activities. January did not yet see the wage adjustment to cover the difference between actual and projected inflation in 2007. The percentage of the wage increase in the public sector has already been agreed upon (3.4%) and will be taken into account in February's wage with a settlement for January. In some industries in the private sector, negotiations are still underway; in others, wage rises were already agreed upon for January (municipal utilities by 3.5%, forestry by 3.7%, pulp, paper and paper processing by 2.6 %, electro industry by 2.7%) and February (construction by 3.2%, graphic, book-trade, publishing and newspaper industries by 2.75%). The government adopted a draft Act Regulating the Minimum Wage, which stipulates that the minimum wage will rise by 5.2% (to EUR 566.53). It accounts for 44.8% of January's average gross wage, which is 2.2 p.p. above the basis that has been in force to date. The minimum wage rise was fixed in agreement with the social partners and is meant to cover the difference between actual and projected inflation in 2007. The minimum wage will increase by EUR 28. Moreover, the net minimum wage will be higher by an additional EUR 27 as a result of the income tax relief. Consequently, the minimum net wage will rise by EUR 45 in total. However, due to the cascading effect, the income tax system will largely cancel out the additional increase in the net minimum wage when the minimum wage is raised again (i.e. the adjustment in August). Graph: Nominal gross wage per employee by groups of activities Private sector (A to K) Public services Jan 2007 Apr May Aug Sep Jan 2008 Production services Business services Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Mar Jun Nov Manufacturing Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 16 Selected economic indicators, growth rates, in % I 2008/ XII 2007 I 2008/ I 2007 I-XII 2007/ I-XII 2006 Production value1 7.2 1.3 8.0 - highly export-oriented industries2 10.4 6.6 17.0 - mainly export-oriented industries3 10.1 -1.5 6.3 - mainly domestic market-oriented industries'4 -2.1 2.1 0.7 Average number of employees 0.0 0.4 0.9 Labour productivity 7.2 0.9 7.1 Level of inventories5 -0.4 10.9 9.3 Turnover5 8.6 2.7 7.3 New orders5 17.5 -9.3 6.3 Domestic industrial producer prices 0.6 2.6 3.5 - domestic market 0.8 5.1 4.3 - foreign market 0.5 0.5 2.9 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: real growth calculated on the basis of data on production value - SORS' recalculation with the IPI (provisional data); Manufacturing industries (DG, DK, DM) which have, according to data on Slovenian commercial companies from the AJPES, earned over 70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; Manufacturing industries (DB, DC, DD, DH, DJ, DL, DN) which have earned 50-70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; "manufacturing industries (DA, DE, DF, DI) which have earned less than 50% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets _in the last three years; 5real growth._ After having slowed markedly in the last two months of 2007, industrial production growth continued to decline also in January. According to SORS' seasonally adjusted provisional data, the production value in manufacturing contracted by 0.2% in comparison with December; at the year-on-year level, it increased by a modest 1.3% in real terms. The differences in growth between industries remained high. Technologically more advanced industries recorded a relatively favourable growth, mainly owing to the car industry. High and medium-high technology industries1, which have the highest potential for long-term growth increased their real production value by 5.1% relative to January 2007. The manufacture of transport equipment (DM), the smallest industry in this group, contributed more than 1.0 p.p. and recorded a 24.8% year-on-year growth. Its year-on-year growth has hovered at similar levels since May 2007. In the second half of 2007, the chemical industry (DG) recorded similar rises; in January, its year-on-year growth decelerated significantly and fell to 2.7%. Also in the other two high-technology industries, the manufacture of machinery and equipment (DK) and the manufacture of electrical and optical equipment (DL), the real production value was higher than in January 2007, by a modest 4.1 % and 2.0%, respectively. Real production volumes of high-technology industries are increasing, whereas the prices of their products remain unchanged. Classified according to the OECD methodology (Revision of the High-Technology Sector and Product Classification, 1997). By our estimate, year-on-year producer prices in this group remained almost unchanged in the first two months of 2008 (weak growth on foreign markets and a decrease on the domestic market). Production activity of medium-low technology industries stagnated in January, year on year. Three of four industries in this group recorded a real growth of production, though production in the metal industry (DJ), the largest manufacturing sub-industry, dropped by 3.8% compared to January 2007. This is the first year-on-year drop in this industry in three years. In spite of the moderate production activity, medium-low technology industries increased their product prices also at the beginning of this year, though the increase was, by our estimate, at the manufacturing sector's average. Within the technologically least advanced industries, the leather and textile industries recorded the highest decline in production. Production growth rates in all industries apart from the wood processing industry (DD) and publishing (part of DE) decreased in real terms in comparison with the year before. At the year-on-year level, the largest decline was recorded in the leather (DC) and textile industries (DB) (by 25.4% and 8.8%, respectively). At the level of the group, production was down 1.5%, year on year, whereas the prices in the first two months rose, by our estimate, by almost 6% year on year; the increase on the domestic market was higher than abroad. Graph: Year-on-year industrial production growth in manufacturing • Year-on-year industrial production growth (DtD(D(ûtD(û(ûlû(0(0(D(0NNNSSNNSNN O O o O O) O. -K > o o • Three-month moving averages Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Distributive Trades Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 17 Selected distributive trades indicators, growth rates (%) Q1 2007/ Q1 2006 Q2 2007/ Q2 2006 Q3 2007/ Q3 2006 Q4 2007/ Q4 2006 2007/ 2006 Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor vehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels 5.7 8.3 12.3 11.3 9.4 Real turnover in retail trade 6.0 3.9 5.7 5.3 5.2 Sale of food, beverages, and tobacco 4.3 -3.4 -3.4 -2.6 -1.3 Sale of non-food products 7.8 11.7 15.6 13.3 12.1 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and in retail sale of automotive fuel 5.5 13.0 19.7 17.7 13.8 Motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts, and accessories 13.6 22.2 26.3 17.9 19.9 Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles -0.7 7.8 8.0 6.1 5.2 Automotive fuel -3.7 1.4 13.2 19.6 7.2 Total nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade1 19.6 15.5 17.1 17.1 17.3 Average number of employed persons2 2.0 2.9 3.8 4.8 3.4 Average gross wage per employee2, 3 5.5 4.3 3.8 1.8 3.8 Real growth of value added in distributive trades2 8.2 7.7 8.2 6.5 7.6 Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1only nominal indices are published; 2in wholesale and retail trade, the repair of motor vehicles, and personal and household goods; deflated by the consumer price index. The growth of value added in wholesale and retail trade, the repair of motor vehicles and consumer goods (activity G) moderated in the final quarter last year; nevertheless, in 2007 it was the highest after 1991. The real year-on-year growth totalled 6.5% in the final quarter and 7.6% in 2007, 1.5 p.p. more than in 2006. As in the previous three quarters, the relatively high year-on-year growth rate of value added in the final quarter relative to the same period of previous years largely reflected the robust growth of turnover in wholesale trade, the sale of motor vehicles and retail sale of non-food products. Increased activity in trade was also accompanied by a rise in the number of employees in this sector, which was even higher than in the previous quarters (see table). The rise in the total number of employees accelerated substantially in 2007 and totalled 3.4% (from 0.8% in 2006). The highest increases were seen in wholesale (4.3%) and retail trade (3.3%) as well as in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (1.5%). In 2007, similar dynamics were also observed in the average wage per employee, which increased by a real 3.8% in distributive trade; again the largest increase was recorded in wholesale trade (5.4%). Relatively strong growth of the total turnover in the fourth quarter was largely underpinned by the high increase in the sale of non-food products and the sale of automotive fuels and motor vehicles (see table). Within the sale of non-food products, the increase in turnover in specialised shops selling furniture, household equipment and construction material slowed down relative to the third quarter, but was still at 11% despite the high base (the year-on-year growth of turnover in the last quarter of 2006 exceeded 20%). The high real growth rates of turnover in specialised shops selling books, newspapers, and other retail trade (22.2%) and in non-specialised shops mainly selling non-food products (16.7%) are largely attributable to low bases from the final quarter of 2006. Turnover in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco dropped for the third consecutive quarter, year on year, notably (by 2.8% in real terms) in non-specialised shops mainly selling food products, which include all major retailers. Turnover in specialised shops selling food products, beverages and tobacco increased marginally (by 0.9%). The growth rate of turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles and in the retail sale of automotive fuels slowed down in the fourth quarter (to 17.7%), though it remained at a very high level. Lower growth rates than in the third quarter were recorded in repair and maintenance of motor vehicles and in the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories, though they remained exceptionally high. The strong performance in the sale of motor vehicles is also corroborated by the number of new car registrations, which rose by 23% in the last quarter over the same period of 2006. Graph: Indices of turnover in distributive trades 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Real turnover in retail trade Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ■ Real turnover in the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories Real turnover in sale of automotive fuels Nominal turnover in wholesale trade Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Tourism Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. 18 Selected indicators for tourism & hotels and restaurants, growth rates (%) Q12007/ Q1 2006 Q2 2007/ Q2 2006 Q3 2007/ Q3 2006 Q4 2007/ Q4 2006 2007/ 2006 Overnight stays, total 4.8 10.1 6.8 5.5 7.0 Domestic tourists 0.5 13.7 2.3 5.5 4.9 Foreign tourists 9.0 7.9 9.8 5.5 8.4 Average number of people in employment1 2.1 3.1 4.3 4.5 3.5 Average gross wage per employee1, 2 1.6 2.3 1.8 3.1 2.2 Prices of hotel and restaurant services, total3 6.9 6.6 7.0 8.7 7.3 Prices of catering services3 7.6 7.2 7.8 10.4 8.3 Prices of accommodation services3 4.0 3.8 3.8 2.7 3.6 Turnover in hotels and restaurants (real terms) -1.5 0.0 3.3 0.1 0.5 Accommodation and related services -2.3 0.7 3.2 3.9 1.4 Food serving services -1.5 -1.9 -1.4 -3.4 -2.0 Drink serving services -3.9 -2.0 1.8 -1.9 -1.5 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1hotels and restaurants; 2deflated by the CPI; 3CPI group or sub-group. The growth of tourist overnight stays in Slovenia was relatively strong also in the final quarter of the year; in 2007, the total number of overnight stays rose above 8 million for the first time. The number of overnight stays rose by 5.5% in the final quarter of 2007, year on year, while the number of tourists increased by 2.9%. All three months of Q4 were favourable for tourism, but the largest increase was recorded in November (8.3% and 9.7%, respectively). In 2007 as a whole, the number of overnight stays increased to 8.3 million (residents' stays to 3.4 m and non-residents' stays to 4.9 m). The number of tourists recorded a similar increase (by 7.9%; within that, the number of non-residents by 8.3% and the number of residents by 7.1%). The decline in the average number of overnight stays per tourist characteristic of the previous years thus came to a halt. The average tourist spent 3.1 nights in Slovenia (residents 3.6, non-residents 2.8), which is still much less than in 1995, when this number was the highest to date (3.7; within that, residents 4.1, non-residents 3.3). The positive performance of tourism in 2007 was also accompanied by rises in the number of employees in hotels and restaurants and foreign exchange receipts from travel. The growth in the number of employees in hotels and restaurants picked up gradually last year and reached 4.5% in the fourth quarter, year on year, and 3.5% in 2007. This is the largest increase since 2001, since comparable data have been available. In 2007, the number of employees increased most notably in hotels and similar establishments (by 5.9%), which employ nearly 30% of all workers in hotels and restaurants. Also higher than in previous quarters was the increase in the number of workers in restaurants (3.3%), which employ over 40% of workers in hotels and restaurants. The increase in the number of non-residents and their overnight stays is also reflected in foreign currency receipts from travel, which rose by as much as 13.3% in 2007. Due to the 4% higher foreign exchange expenditure on travel, the surplus in foreign exchange from travel increased by almost a fifth, totalling EUR 811.1 m, and accounted for close to 80% of the total surplus in the sub-balance of services (see p. 9). For the fourth consecutive year, Italian guests made the most overnight stays in Slovenia in 2007, while Austrian guests occupied second place for the second year in a row. According to the number of overnight stays, tourists from the first five countries together made 58% of total nonresidents' overnight stays in 2007, 4 p.p. less than in 2006. The rise in overnight stays of tourists from these five countries totalled 1.5% only, whereas the number of all non-residents' overnight stays increased by 8.4%. The share of overnight stays made by Italian tourists in the structure of non-residents' overnight stays dropped from almost 20% to less than 19%. For the second time, Austrian guests occupied second place in terms of the number of non-residents' stays, although the number of their overnight stays rose marginally in 2007. After falling for several years, the number of German visitors' overnight stays increased again in 2007. Conversely, the number of overnight stays made by tourists from the UK decreased by 4.6%, following the high year-on-year increases seen in 2004 and 2005 and stagnation in 2006. Among the 19 countries, whose tourists made at least 1 % of all overnight stays in Slovenia, only the number of overnight stays by tourists from the UK decreased in 2007 relative to the year before (see the graph). Russian tourists leaped from 10th to 7th place, for the number of their overnight stays increased by as much as 31%. In 2007, the number of overnight stays made by tourists from the United States increased by less than 5.0%, after a significant rise in 2006. It was the lowest increase in the number of overnight stays among all countries ranked between the 6th and 19th places. Graph: Overnight stays made by foreign tourists in Slovenia in 2007 % 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Ë2L > <0 E <0 0) n <0 0) (0 F o JD CT n o C n <0 D CO o o o ro z c HOUSEHOLDS' DEPOSITS in EUR million 13500 12000 10500 9000 7500 6000 4500 3000 1500 0 DOMESTICCURRENCY 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS INDICES:2005=100 115 110 95 r'"\J / ---------PRICE CONTROL • CONSUMER PRICE INDICES • PRODUCER PRICE INDICES (DOMESTIC MARKET) -i—i—i—i—i—i— —i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i— EURO EXCHANGE RATES indices: average 2001 = 100 500 400 350 250 12 10 Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. A 18 Agriculture and food processing industry agricultural production 6/04:15, 2/07:15 age and education structure 8-9/02:22 agricultural holdings by size 7/02:18 CAP reform 7/03:18-19 negotiations with the EU 2/02:23, 1/03:17 prices 3/02:29, 3/03:14, 3/04:14, 3/05:13, 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17, 3/08:24 reformed policy measures 5/02:16 sample surveys of agricultural holdings 10/03:15 cattle breeding main indicators, number of cattle, BSE, milk production 11/02:14, 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17 fishing 11/02:15, 8-9/04:16, 10/06:17, 11/07:19 forestry 4/02:18, 5/04:16, 11/06:19, 10/07:17 international trade 3/04:15, 4/06:23, 4/07:18 value added forecasting 4/07:21 Balance of payments see also External debt current account, capital and financial account, international money reserves 1/02:6, 2/02:6, 3/02:6, 4/02:5, 5/02:4, 6/02:4, 7/02:5, 8-9/02:6, 10/02:7, 11/02:5, 12/02:4, 1/03:3,4, 2/03:4, 3/03:7, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 6/03:4, 7/03:5, 8-9/03:6, 10/03:4, 11/03:4, 12/03:4, 1/04:4, 2/04:4-5, 3/04:6, 4/04:6, 5/04:4, 6/04:4, 7/04:4, 8-9/04:4-5, 10/04:5, 11/04:4-5, 12/04:4, 1/05:4, 2/05:4-5, 4/05:5, 5/05:4-5, 6/05:3, 7/05:4, 8-9/05:5, 10/05:6, 11/05:7-8, 12/05:4, 1/06:4, 2/06:4-5, 3/06:4, 4/06:6, 5/06:6-7, 6/06:6, 7/06:4, 8-9/06:6, 10/06:4, 11/06:6-7, 12/06:10, 1/07:5, 2/07:6-7, 4/07:7, 6/07:5-6, 7/07:5, 8-9/07:6, 11/07:7, 12/07:6, 1/08:5, 2/08:3, 3/08:8 changes in the balance of payments 8-9/02:21 terms of trade 8-9/02:6, 2/03:4, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 7/03:5 export financing and export credit insurance 3/02:11, 5/03:22 foreign exchange reserves 8-9/02:6 foreign direct investments 3/02:7 regional composition of trade 7/02:5, 2/05:4, 3/07:16-17 trade in services 3/02:8, 6/02:5, 8-9/02:7, 3/03:5, 7/03:5, 89/03:7, 2/04:6, 8-9/04:6, 12/04:29, 2/05:8, 89/05:6, 2/06:6, 8-9/06:7, 2/07:8, 8-9/07:7, 3/08:9 competitiveness of exports of services 12/02:18, 12/03:17 coverage of international trade in services (methodology) 3/03:24,25 regional distribution 6/04:20 Business subjects 5/03:21, 5/04:20-21 Economic subjects 4/05:17, 4/06:22 Co-operative societies business performance 12/02:17, 11/03:17, 12/04:30, 11/05:23 Corporate sector company performance R&D: 6/05:18 by kind of ownership 11/04:18, 8-9/05:23 by origin of capital 11/04:19, 10/05:22 by size 10/02:16, 10/03:22, 7/04:24, 89/04:26, 6/05:16 by share of exports in total revenues 11/02:19, 8-9/03:20, 10/04:20, 7/05:19 by technology intensity 10/07:20-21 by no. of employees 7/05:18 in 1994-2000 4/01:8 overall performance 5/02:15, 6/03:13, 7/03:20, 6/04:21, 7/04:24, 5/05:19, 5/06:22, 10/06:20-21, 5/07:21 in dairy industry: 1/08:20-21 in meat processing firms: 2/08:16-17 comparison of Slovenian and European enterprises 1/05:20-21 enterprises by size 7/05:17, 7/06:20-21, 89/07:22-23 entrepreneurial activity 5/06:17-18 compulsory settlement, bankruptcies, liquidations 4/02:17, 3/05:19 ownership structure, ownership concentration 1/03:15, 3/05:22, 6/05:15 foreign direct investment performance of companies employing foreign capital 7/03:21, 8-9/03:21, 10/03:21 number of business entities 3/02:20, 5/07:20 solvency of business entities 3/05:23, 5/06:23, 5/07:22 small sole proprietorships 12/05:20 Doing Business rankings (WB) 12/06:24-25 Competitiveness (export competitiveness) price and cost competitiveness - effective exchange rate, unit labour costs: quarterly trends 2/02:7, 5/02:5, 8-9/02:8, -11/02:6, 2/03:7, 5/03:5, 8-9/03:8, 11/03:5, 3/04:4, 5/04:5, 8-9/04:7, 11/04:6, 2/05:6, 10/05:4, 11/05:6, 2/06:7, 6/06:4, 8-9/06:5, 12/06:8, 3/07:5, 5/07:6, 8-9/07:5, 11/07:6 annual trends 2/03:8, 3/04:5, 2/05:7, 3/07:5, 3/08:6 international comparison SLO - CEFTA 3/02:10 market share 3/02:9, 5/02:5, 7/02:3, 11/02:6, 10/05:5, 6/06:5, 12/06:9, 4/07:6, 3/08:7 value added and productivity methodological changes in measuring competitiveness 12/06:26 Competitiveness of nations country risk 3/02:4, 10/02:5 global competitiveness and country risk, int. comparison 3/03:6 global competitiveness IMD's annual report 5/03:17, 5/04:18, 5/05:20-21, 7/05:22-23, 5/06:19-20, 5/07:23-24 - corruption 1/02:4 - country's image 7/02:16 - location attractiveness 11/03:20-21 - state efficiency 7/02:15, 11/02:22 WEF Report 2/02:4, 11/02:22, 1/05:18-19, 12/05:17-18, 1/06:19, 1/07:24-25 - technology progress 2/02:4 Country risk see Competitiveness of nations Crime international comparison 3/03:26 trends in Slovenia 4/03:17 Development Report 3/03:20-21, 3/05:4-5, 5/06:4-5 Distributive trades companies performance 6/02:18 selected indicators 2/02:21, 3/06:11, 89/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 89/07:16, 12/07:13, 3/08:17 value added 10:02/16, 12/02:16, 3/03:15, 6/03:12, 8-9/03:17, 12/03:13, 6/04:14, 89/04:19, 3/06:11, 7/06:15, 8-9/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 8-9/07:16, 12/07:13, 3/08:17 sales capacities 12/06:23 competition 2/07:22 Earnings gross wage per employee by activities 1/02:13, 2/02:15, 4/02:13, 5/02:12, 6/02:12, 7/02:12, 8-9/02:15, 10/02:13, 11/02:12, 12/02:11, 1/03:10, 2/03:14-15, 4/03:12, 5/03:11, 6/03:10, 7/03:12, 8-9/03:13, 10/03:9, 11/03:11, 12/03:10, 1/04:11, 2/04:12, 3/04:12, 4/04:13, 5/04:11, 6/04:10, 7/04:11, 8-9/04:13, 10/04:13, 11/04:12, 12/04:10, 1/05:11, 2/05:14, 7/05:3, 8-9/05:12, 10/05:14, 11/05:14, 12/05:10, 1/06:12, 2/06:13, 3/06:9, 4/06:14, 5/06:10, 6/06:12-13, 7/06:11, 89/06:12, 10/06:11, 11/06:12, 12/06:15, 1/07:12, 2/07:12, 3/07:8, 4/07:14, 5/07:11, 6/07:11, 7/07:12, 8-9/07:12, 10/07:11, 11/07:12, 12/07:11, 1/08:12, 2/08:10, 3/08:15 earnings in the public sector 7/07:19-20 Economic growth see GDP see also Sustainable development see also Strategy for the Economic Development of Slovenia Economic Policy Government's Programme for Effective Integration into the European Union 7/03:3 Programme for Entering the ERM II and Introducing the Euro 11/03:3 Education see Human resources Energy sector electricity selected indicators (production and consumption, international comparison) 1/02:15, 2/02:19, 3/02:22, 4/02:21, 5/02:19, 6/02:16, 7/02:21, 10/02:18, 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/04:14, 4/04:15, 7/04:15, 10/04:16, 1/05:14, 4/05:14, 7/05:14, 10/05:17, 1/06:15, 4/06:17, 7/06:13, 10/06:14, 1/07:15, 4/07:16, 7/07:15, 11/07:15, 1/08:15 prices 10/04:16, 2/07:20-21 international comparison 6/02:16, 7/06:13, 2/07:20-21 electricity market 2/07:20-21, 11/07:15 oil and oil products excise duties 1/03:13, 7/03:15, 4/04:15 prices - international comparison 2/02:19, 4/02:21, 5/02:19, 7/02:21, 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/05:14 pricing model for liquid fuel prices 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 4/04:15, 7/04:15,19 Environment - Environmental policy see also Sustainable development environmentally intensive exports 3/02:26 merchandise export with high content of natural resources 3/02:27 environmental component of economic development 5/07:17 greenhouse gas emissions 6/07:22-23 EU economic trends and forecasts 11/02:4, 3/03:4-5, 7/03:4, 8-9/03:5, 7/04:3,19, 11/05:3, 11/06:4, 3/08:5 Lisbon strategy 11/05:4-5 Stability and growth pact 10/06:19 tax and contributions structure 11/05:19-20 public finance flows between SLO and EU 1/07:26, 10/07:22-23 Slovenia's accession to the EU Report on Progress towards Accession 10/02:6 Exchange rate see Competitiveness Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) II 6/04:3, 6/04:6 External debt of Slovenia 2/03:6, 10/04:6, 3/05:6 external debt statistics according to new methodology: - gross external debt it s dynamic indicators 10/03:20 foreign exchange reserves/external debt 1/02:6, 2/03:6 Forecasts for Slovenian economy by IMAD autumn forecasts 10/02:3-4, 8-9/03:3, 10/04:3-4, 8-9/05:4, 8-9/06:4, 8-9/07:3 spring forecasts 4/02:3, 4/03:3-4, 4/04:3-4, 4/05:3-4, 4/06:3-4, 4/07:4, 3/08:3 Foreign analysts forecasts 11/02:3, 4/06:5 GDP - Slovenia annual growth 1/02:3, 3/02:3, 3/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/06:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:3, 3/08:4 - economic growth components 3/03:3, 89/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:5, 3/08:4 - international comparison see International environment quarterly growth 6/02:3, 8-9/02:3, 12/02:3, 6/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 12/03:3, 3/04:3, 6/04:3, 8-9/04:3, 12/04:3, 1/05:3, 3/05:3, 8-9/06:3, 11/06:4-5, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:3, 12/07:5, 2/08:4, 3/08:5 Past and Future of Slovenian GDP 12/04:22 Room for Future Improvement of Slovenian GDP Growth 12/04:23 Global competitiveness see Competitiveness of nations Households Household Budget Survey 10:02/20 private consumption and indebtedness 1/02:11, 8-9/02:17, 12/02:13, 1/04:13, 7/04:13, 8-9/04:15, 12/04:12, 3/05:16, 6/05:11, 8-9/05:15, 12/05:11, 3/06:12, 6/06:15, 8-9/06:15, 12/06:17, 3/07:9, 3/07:18, 6/07:15, 8-9/07:15, 12/07:15, 3/08:19 available and allocated assets of households 12/05:19, 1/07:20-21, 12/07:20-21, 1/08:22 Human development see Social indicators Human resources see also Social Indicators Education youth in secondary education 6/07:19-21 Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. A 19 adults in secondary schools 7/06:22-23 informal/continuing education 10/06:18, 12/07:19 lifelong learning 6/06:21-22 higher education7/02:24, 7/05:20-21, 89/05:22, 7/06:24 higher education-scholarships 8-9/06:21, 1/08:19 mobility of students 4/07:24-25, 5/07:18-19 expenditure on educational institutions -international comparison 6/05:17, 1/06:20-21 public expenditure on education -international comparison 12/04:21, 1/06:2021 science and technology graduates 3/06:1617 Industrv and construction construction 2/02:22, 4/02:20, 5/02:18, 6/02:15, 7/02:20, 8-9/02:19, 10/02:17, 12/02:15, 2/03:17, 5/03:14, 8-9/03:16, 11/03:14, 2/04:15, 5/04:14, 8-9/04:18, 12/04:14, 2/05:17, 5/05:12, 8-9/05:14, 11/05:16, 2/06:15, 5/06:12, 8-9/06:14, 11/06:14, 2/07:14, 5/07:13, 8-9/07:14, 11/07:14, 2/08:12 manufacturing export-oriented companies 6/02:14, 8-9/02:18 technology intensity 10/07:20-21, 11/07:13 financial indicators 7/02:19 production volumes, trends, forecasts and employment 2/02:18, 3/02:21, 4/02:19, 5/02:17, 6/02:14, 8-9/02:18, 11/02:16, 12/02:14, 1/03:12, 3/03:17, 4/03:14, 5/03:13, 6/03:13, 7/03:14, 8-9/03:15, 10/03:11, 11/03:13, 12/03:12, 2/04:14, 5/04:13, 6/04:12, 7/04:14, 8-9/04:17, 10/04:15, 11/04:14, 12/04:13, 1/05:13, 2/05:16, 4/05:13, 5/05:11, 6/05:12, 7/05:12, 8-9/05:13, 10/05:15, 11/05:15, 12/05:12, 1/06:13, 2/06:14, 3/06:10, 4/06:15, 5/06:11, 6/06:14, 7/06:12, 8-9/06:13, 10/06:12, 11/06:13, 12/06:16, 1/07:13, 2/07:13, 4/07:15, 5/07:12, 6/07:12, 7/07:13, 8-9/07:13, 10/07:12, 11/07:13, 12/07:12, 1/08:13, 2/08:11, 3/08:16 value added and productivity by activities 7/02:19, 12/02:3, 8-9/03:15 Industrial policy State aid - international comparisons 1/03:16 Industrial relations see also Labour market employment relationship collective bargaining coverage and extension procedures 2/04:22-23 employment relationships act 6/02:19 European works councils 5/05:22 working time 11/04:20 strikes data collections and international comparisons 3/04:20-21 membership in employers' organisations 12/03:18 employee participation in a European Joint-Stock Company 3/05:23 Inflation see Prices Information technology use of internet 3/02:28 Institutions trust in institutions 12/02:19, 4/06:21 Insurance sector international comparison export financing and export credit insurance see Balance of payments / foreign trade policy International environment 3/02:5, 7/02:4, 8-9/02:4-5, 11/02:4, 7/03:4, 89/03:5, 1/05:3, 5/05:3, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 1/07:4, 2/07:4-5, 3/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 6/07:4, 7/07:4, 8-9/07:4, 10/07:4, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:4, 1/08:4, 2/08:4 Germany 1/02:5, 3/03:4,5, 7/03:4, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 2/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 7/07:4, 1/08:4 candidate-countries for the EU economic developments and forecasts 4/02:4 Croatia 2/02:5, 8-9/02:5, 3/07:4, 6/07:4 Labour market see also Industrial relations unemployment first-time job seekers 4/02:11 structure of registered unemployment 1/02:12, 5/02:11, 8-9/02:14, 2/03:13, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 1/06:11, 2/08:9 survey unemployment rate 2/02:13, 3/03:12, 5/03:10, 8-9/03:12, 2/04:11, 2/05:13, 2/06:3, 12/06:14, 2/07:3, 2/07:11, 5/07:3, 2/08:9 selected labour market indicators 1/02:12, 2/02:13, 3/02:17, 4/02:11, 5/02:11, 6/02:11, 7/02:11, 8-9/02:14, 10/02:12, 11/02:11, 12/02:10, 1/03:9, 2/03:13, 3/03:12, 4/03:11, 5/03:10, 6/03:9, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 10/03:8, 11/03:10, 12/03:9, 1/04:10, 2/04:11, 3/04:11, 4/04:12, 5/04:10, 6/04:9, 7/04:10, 89/04:12, 10/04:12, 11/04:11, 12/04:9, 1/05:10, 2/05:13, 3/05:11, 4/05:11, 5/05:10, 6/05:10, 7/05:11, 8-9/05:11, 10/05:13, 11/05:13, 12/05:9, 1/06:10, 2/06:11, 3/06:8, 4/06:12, 5/06:3, 5/06:9, 6/06:11, 7/06:10, 89/06:11, 10/06:10, 11/06:11, 12/06:14, 1/07:11, 2/07:10, 3/07:7, 4/07:13, 5/07:10, 6/07:3, 6/07:10, 7/07:11, 8-9/07:11, 10/07:10, 11/07:11, 12/07:10, 1/08:11, 2/08:8, 3/08:14 vacancies and people hired 2/06:12 job vacancy rate 10/07:18 accidents at work 2/02:24, 4/02:12 education structure of persons in employment 12/02:10, 12/03:9 employment by activities 2/02:13, 8-9/02:14, 4/06:13 employment rate of older workers 8-9/04:25 employment of foreigners 4/07:22-23 jobs and (un)employment across regions 3/03:19, 8-9/07:21, 10/07:19 labour market flexibility 3/05:20-21 occupational structure of labour demand 3/02:17, 4/03:11 overtime work 6/02:11 structural unemployment 10/03:8 part-time work 2/03:19 work on contract 6/02:11 employment programmes 10,000 Programme 11/03:10 programme of refunding contributions of employers 7/02:11 Public Works Programmes 4/04:12 Programme of promoting self-employment 5/04:10 legislation Employment of Foreigners Act 3/01:15, 6/03:9 Active Employment Policy Programme for 2003 11/02:11 Vocational Rehabilitation and Employment of Disabled Persons Act 7/04:10 productivity growth 2/02:14, 1/04:10 Manufacturing see Industry Money market and monetary policy corporate liquidity 5/02:7 money aggregates, interest and exchange rates 1/02:8, 2/02:9, 3/02:13, 4/02:7, 5/02:7, 6/02:9, 7/02:7, 8-9/02:10, 10/02:9, 11/02:8, 12/02:6, 1/03:6, 2/03:10, 3/03:9, 4/03:7, 5/03:7, 6/03:6, 7/03:7, 10/03:6, 11/03:7, 12/03:6, 1/04:6, 2/04:8, 3/04:8, 4/04:8, 5/04:7, 6/04:6, 7/04:6, 8-9/04:9, 10/04:8, 11/04:8, 12/04:6, 1/05:6, 2/05:10, 3/05:8, 4/05:7, 5/05:7, 6/05:7, 7/05:6, 8-9/05:8, 10/05:8, 11/05:10, 12/05:6 monetary policy guidelines 10/02:3-4 banks interest rates 3/02:15, 10/02:10, 10/02:9 money market, loans 1/02:9, 2/02:11, 3/02:15, 4/02:9, 5/02:9, 7/02:9, 8-9/02:12, 10/02:11, 11/02:10, 12/02:8, 1/03:8, 2/03:12, 3/03:11, 4/03:9, 5/03:9, 6/03:8, 7/03:9, 89/03:11, 11/03:9, 12/03:8, 1/04:8, 2/04:10, 3/04:10, 4/04:10, 5/04:9, 6/04:8, 7/04:8, 89/04:11, 10/04:10, 11/04:10, 12/04:8,1/05:8, 2/05:12, 3/05:10, 4/05:9, 5/05:9, 6/05:9, 7/05:8, 8-9/05:10, 10/05:10, 11/05:12, 12/05:8, 1/06:7, 2/06:10, 3/06:7, 4/06:9, 6/06:8, 7/06:6, 8-9/06:9, 10/06:6, 11/06:9, 12/06:12, 1/07:7, 4/07:10, 5/07:9, 6/07:9, 7/07:8, 8-9/07:10, 10/07:7, 11/07:10,12/07:9, 1/08:8, 2/08:7, 3/08:11 savings with banks and mutual funds 1/02:9, 2/02:10, 3/02:14, 4/02:8, 5/02:8, 7/02:8, 8-9/02:11, 10/02:10, 12/02:7, 1/03:7, 2/03:11, 3/03:10, 4/03:8, 5/03:8, 6/03:7, 7/03:8, 8-9/03:10, 11/03:8, 12/03:7, 1/04:7, 2/04:9, 3/04:9, 4/04:9, 5/04:8, 6/04:7, 7/04:7, 8-9/04:10, 10/04:9, 11/04:9, 12/04:7, 1/05:7, 2/05:11, 3/05:9, 4/05:8, 5/05:8, 6/05:8, 7/05:7, 8-9/05:9, 10/05:9, 11/05:11, 12/05:7, 1/06:6, 2/06:9, 3/06:6, 4/06:8, 5/06:21, 6/06:9, 7/06:7, 8-9/06:10, 10/06:7, 11/06:10, 12/06:13, 1/07:8, 4/07:9, 5/07:8, 6/07:8, 7/07:7, 8-9/07:9, 10/07:6, 11/07:9, 12/07:8, 1/08:7, 2/08:6, 3/08:12 Maastricht criteria long-term interest rates 5/04:19 Population 1/07:22-23, 12/07:22-23 household savings see The money market Prices price trends - inflation, administered and unregulated prices 1/02:7, 2/02:8, 3/02:12, 4/02:6, 5/02:6, 6/02:6, 7/02:3,6, 8-9/02:9, 10/02:8, 11/02:7, 12/02:5, 1/03:5, 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 4/03:6, 5/03:6, 6/03:5, 7/03:6, 8-9/03:9, 10/03:5, 11/03:6, 12/03:5, 1/04:5, 2/04:7, 3/04:7, 4/04:7, 5/04:6, 6/04:5, 7/04:5, 8-9/04:8, 10/04:7, 11/04:7, 12/04:5, 1/05:5, 2/05:9, 3/05:7, 4/05:6, 5/05:6,23,24, 6/05:6, 7/05:5, 8-9/05:3, 8-9/05:7, 10/05:3, 10/05:7, 11/05:9, 12/05:3,5, 1/06:5, 2/06:8, 3/06:5, 4/06:7, 5/06:8, 6/06:7, 7/06:5,19, 8-9/06:8, 10/06:5, 11/06:8, 12/06:3, 12/06:11, 1/07:6, 1/07:19, 2/07:9, 3/07:6, 4/07:8, 4/07:3, 5/07:3, 5/07:7, 6/07:3, 6/07:7, 7/07:3, 7/07:6, 8-9/07:3, 89/07:8, 10/07:3, 10/07:5, 11/07:3, 11/07:8, 12/07:3, 12/07:7, 1/08:6, 2/08:3, 2/08:5, 3/08:3, 3/08:10 prices policy 6/02:7-8, 10:02/3-4, 11:02/3, 5/05:23, 6/05:6 harmonised index of consumer prices 1/05:22 core inflation 10/02:8, 12/02:5, 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 6/03:5 producer prices 3/07:6 bond yield curve see Money market and Monetary policy and Stock Exchange Productivity see Industry and Competitiveness Private Consumption see Households Public finance general government debt 10/02:15 general government revenue 1/02:14, 2/02:16, 3/02:18, 4/02:14, 5/02:13, 6/02:13, 7/02:13, 8-9/02:16, 10/02:14, 11/02:13, 12/02:12, 1/03:11, 2/03:16, 3/03:13, 4/03:13, 5/03:12, 6/03:11, 7/03:13, 10/03:10, 11/03:12, 12/03:11, 1/04:12, 2/04:13, 3/04:13, 4/04:14, 5/04:12, 6/04:11, 7/04:12, 8-9/04:14, 10/04:14, 11/04:13, 12/04:11, 1/05:12, 2/05:15, 4/05:12, 7/05:10, 10/05:12, 1/06:9, 4/06:11, 7/06:9, 10/06:9, 1/07:10, 4/07:12, 7/07:10, 10/07:9, 1/08:10, 3/08:13 general government expenditures 3/05:12, 6/06:10, 3/08:13 general government balance 12/04:3, 3/05:12, 3/08:13 state budget expenditure 3/05:12 budget expenditure on culture 3/02:19 public expenditure on education - international comparison 12/04:21 Public services network see also Human resources 7/04:20 - international comp. 7/04:21 Public institutes financial results in 2002 11/03:18 financing 11/03:19 Public Health Institutes 2/04:20-21 Quality of life seeSocial indicators Research and development see Technological development Regional development company performance by regions 7/02:14, 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25 development deficiency index 7/06:25 jobs and (un)employment across regions Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 p. A 20 10/03:16, 4/04:20, 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25, 89/07:21, 10/07:19 regional GDP 2/02:17, 8-9/03:19, 4/04:20, 7/04:23, 7/05:24, 2/06:19 population's education structure - regional aspect 6/03:15, 4/04:20 population's demographic structure 5/06:24, 11/07:20 personal income tax base per capita 6/06:20, 3/08:23 Report on structural reforms 10/03:3 structural changes in network industries 4/07:26-27 Report on economic and social cohesion 2/04:18-19 Services domestic trade see Distributive trades information technology see Information technology public services see also Public services network 5/02:22 international comparison 5/02:23 real estate, renting and business services 4/02:23, 4/04:16, 5/05:15, 12/05:13 prices of telecommunication services 2/06:20 tourism see Tourism trade in services see Balance of payments Social indicators civil society see Civil society equal opportunities policy 3/02:30, 8-9/02:24, 1/04:20-21, 3/04:18-19, 2/05:21-22 trust in other people 6/06:19 Human Development Report 5/03:18-19, 8-9/05:19, 11/06:17, 1/08:23 Social Overview 2006 12/06:4-5 human resources mortality caused by injuries: - due to external causes of injury 4/03:18 - by age and gender 5/03:20 gender-related development index 3/03:22, 10/05:21 gender empowerment measure 10/03:17, 10/04:19 gender equality 10/04:19 human development index 8-9/02:20, 7/03:17, 7/04:22 health insurance - supplementary 1/04:19 health expenditure 2/07:23, 4/07:30-31 social welfare cash benefits 11/06:18 social protection of the elderly 3/03:23 indicators (happiness, satisfaction with life, etc) 12/04:24-25, 3/06:18, 4/07:28-29 jobless households 3/07:15 long-term care 12/04:26-27, 4/07:32 parental leave-paternity leave 8-9/02:24 the at-risk-of-poverty rate 5/02:24, 12/02:20, 11/03:22, 11/04:17, 6/07:24, 2/08:15 Time Use Survey 10/02:21 transfers expenditures for social protection 8-9/02:23, 4/04:19, 3/06:19, 11/07:21 social benefits: - parents 3/02:30 - pensions 2/07:19 - financial social assistance 1/05:17 trust in institutions see Institutions Stock exchange turnover, capitalisation, indices 1/02:10, 2/02:12, 3/02:16, 4/02:10, 6/02:10, 7/02:10, 8-9/02:13, 12/02:9, 4/03:10, 7/03:10, 10/03:7, 1/04:9, 4/04:11, 7/04:9, 10/04:11, 1/05:9, 4/05:10, 7/05:9, 10/05:11, 1/06:8, 4/06:10, 7/06:8, 10/06:8, 1/07:9, 4/07:11, 7/07:9, 10/07:8, 1/08:9 bonds 4/04:11 authorised investment companies 5/02:10 indicators share turnover ratio 2/02:12, 7/02:10, 12/02:9 industrial sector indices 2/02:12, 12/02:9 investment by residents in foreign bourses 3/02:16 investment by non-residents 1/02:10, 2/02:12, 89/02:13, 12/02:9 mutual funds 6/02:10, 8-9/02:11 Strategy of Slovenia's Development 6/05:4,5 Sustainable development ecological footprint 8-9/05:20-21 Technological development R&D activity in Slovenia 10/03:18-19 R&D expenditure 4/02:16 R&D researches 7/02:17 Technology Achievement Index by UNDP 11/02:20 Public Research Institutes 11/05:21-22 science and technology graduates/students 3/06:16-17, 11/07:22-23 Tourism travels of domestic population 1/03:14, 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 7/03:16, 1/04:16, 12/04:28, 1/06:22, 1/07:27 foreign exchange receipts 3/06:15, 12/06:19, 3/08:18 international comparison 2/02:20 overnight stays by resort 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 1/04:15, 5/06:13, 6/07:14 selected indicators 1/02:16, 2/02:20, 3/02:24, 4/02:22, 5/02:20, 7/02:22, 11/02:17, 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 10/03:13, 1/04:15, 6/04:13, 89/04:21, 12/04:17, 3/05:14, 5/05:14, 10/05:18, 1/06:16, 5/06:13, 8-9/06:17, 12/06:19, 3/07:10, 6/07:14, 8-9/07:17, 12/07:14, 3/08:18 survey on foreign tourists in the summer season 6/04:19 Transport selected indicators 3/02:23, 6/02:17, 11/02:18, 5/03:16, 11/03:15, 2/04:16, 5/04:15, 8-9/04:20, 12/04:15, 3/05:15, 7/05:13, 10/05:16, 1/06:14, 4/06:16, 7/06:14, 10/06:13, 1/07:14, 4/07:17, 7/07:14, 10/07:13, 1/08:14 Value added see Competitiveness and Industry and Distributive trades Welfare see Sustainable development social welfare indicators: see Social indicators Acronyms in the text have the following meanings: AIS-Agricultural Institute of Slovenia, AJPES-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, AP-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Payments, APr-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Privatisation, BS-Bank of Slovenia, bn-billion, CCIS-Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia, CSCC-Central Securities Clearing Corporation, DUNZ-Directorate of Administrative Interior Affairs, DURS-Tax Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, EIMV-Electro Institute Milan Vidmar, ELES-Electro Slovenia, ESS-Employment Service of Slovenia, GEM-Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HII-Health Insurance Institute, ICT-information and communications technologies, IER-Institute for Economic Research, IAAD-International Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD-Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IPI-Industrial Price Index, LSE-Ljubljana Stock Exchange, m-million, MAFF-Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food, MEA-Ministry of Economic Affairs, MES-Ministry of Education and Sport, MESP-Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, MF-Ministry of Finance, MIA-Ministry of Internal Affairs, MLFSA-Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Affairs, MMTS-Market Maker Trading Segment, MST-Ministry of Science and Technology, N/A or (-)-not available, N/R-not reasonable, NFC-National Financial Corporation, OG-Uradni list Republike Slovenije (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia), PDII-Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, p.p.-percentage points, PPA-Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, PPP-purchasing power parity, PPS-purchasing parity standards, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SDC-Slovene Development Corporation, SEC-Slovene Exports Corporation, SIA-Slovenian Insurance Association, SITC-Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS-Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS-Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA): A-Agriculture, hunting, forestry, B-Fishing, C-Mining and quarrying, D-manufacturing, DA-food beverages and tobacco, DB-textiles and textile products, DC-leather and leather products, DD-wood and wood products, DE-paper, publishing, printing, DF-coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel, DG-chemicals, DH-rubber and plastic products, DI-non-metal mineral products, DJ-metals and metal products, DK-machinery and equipment, DL-electrical and optical equipment, DM-transport equipment, DN-furniture and NEC, E-Electricity, gas and water supply, F-Construction, G-Wholesale, retail, trade, repair, H-Hotels and restaurants, I-Transport, storage, communications, J-Financial intermediation, K-Real estate, renting and business activities, L-Public administ. & defence; comp. soc. sec., M-Education, N-Health and social work, O-Other social and personal services. Acronyms of Countries: AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, EL-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, I-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LV-Latvia, LT-Lithuania, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America, PL-Poland, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia. Data: data for trends and seasonally adjusted series are calculated by using TRAMO-SEATS method if not stated otherwise. The IMAD's Other Publications Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2008 Social Overview 2006, 2007 Forecasts of Economic Trends Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2007 Slovenia's Development Strategy (SDS 2006-2013), 2005 Spring Report 2006 Analysis, Research and Development Autumn Report 2006 Human Development Report Slovenia 2002-2003 Development Report 2007 Slovenia - On the Way to the Information Society • No. 6/2007. Innovation Cooperation and Innovation Activity of Slovenian Enterprises, Jaklič Andreja, Jože P. Damijan, Matija Rojec • No. 11/2006. Firm of Private Value: What is Behind the Creation of Multiple Blockholder Structure? A. Brezigar Masten, A. Gregorič, K. Zajc • No. 2/2006. Does Exporting Boost Capital Investments? The Evidence from Slovenian Manufacturing Firms' Balance Sheets, A. Burger, M. Ferjančič Working papers • No. 5/2004. On the possibility of negative effects of EU entry on output, employment, wages and inflation in Slovenia, A. Brezigar • 4/2004. Future GDP growth in Slovenia: Looking for room for improvement, E. L. W. Jongen • 3/2004. An analysis of past and future GDP growth in Slovenia, E. L. W. Jongen • 1/2004. Productivity growth and functional upgrading in foreign subsidiaries in the Slovenian manufacturing sector, M. Rojec, B. Majcen, A. Jaklič, S. Radošević More Working papers are available in Slovene. 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