Slovenian economic mirror February 2009, No. 2. Vol. XV Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 2 / Vol. XV / 2009 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Matej Adamič (International Environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Katarina Ivas, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, MSc, Tina Nenadič, Jure Povšnar (Economic Developments in Slovenia); Saša Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour Market); Slavica Jurančič, Ivo Lavrač, PhD, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, MSc (Balance of Payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial Markets); Barbara Knapič Navarrete, Jasna Kondža (Public Finance); Ana Vidrih, MSc (Patent Applications to the European Patent Office) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Mateja Peternelj, MSc, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Language Editor: Terry Troy Jackson Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Ema Bertina Kopitar Print: Tiskarna Solos Circulation: 500 copies The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the Spotlight . 3 Current Economic Trends................................................................................................................................5 International Environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic Developments in Slovenia...............................................................................................................................................8 Labour Market.........................................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of Payments.......................................................................................................................................................20 Financial Markets...................................................................................................................................................................................22 Public Finance..........................................................................................................................................................................................25 Selected Topics..............................................................................................................................................29 Patent Applications to the European Patent Office................................................................................................................31 Statistical Appendix......................................................................................................................................35 Boxes Box 1: Second Package of Measures in Response to the Financial and Economic Turnmoil............................13 Box 2: Agreement on Measures in the Area of Public Sector Wages for the 2008-2010 period.......................16 Box 3: HICP Excluding the impact of Taxes.................................................................................................................18 Box 4: Movements on the Real Estate Market...........................................................................................................18 Box 5: Draft Supplementary Budget for 2009...........................................................................................................27 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 3 In the Spotlight In the spotlight In the final quarter of2008, GDP in the euro area recorded its third consecutive decline, also dropping year-on-year, for the first time since data have been available (1996). The contraction in the euro area was even stronger (-1.5%) than in the previous two quarters; GDP shrank relative to the third quarter in all of Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU. The unemployment rate rose by 1.3 p.p. since September, to 8.7% in January. In view of the accelerating decline in economic activity, the Fed revised its forecast of economic growth for the US: in 2009, GDP is projected to shrink by 0.5% to 1.3%, while in 2010, the crisis is expected to come to an end and economic growth will again turn positive (between 2.5% and 3.3%). Following the significant slowdown in November, modest lending activity of banks also continued in December. After dropping for eleven months, December's y-o-y growth in the volume of loans reached a two-and-a-half-year low (18.1%). In November and December, the banks recorded net lending to domestic non-banking sectors in a net amount of only EUR 76.7 m; in 2008, the volume of these loans declined by over a quarter relative to 2007. Amid the tightened conditions on international interbank markets, banks repaid short-term foreign loans in the last two months of2008, in a net amount of EUR 680.3 m; in 2008, borrowing abroad was almost two-thirds lower than in 2007. Household deposits became a more important source of bank liquidity. In January, the lending activity of banks increased relative to the last two months of2008, but net flows (EUR 272.8 m) nevertheless reached less than 40% of their value in January 2008. Notably lower growth rates of merchandise exports, the volume of industrial production in manufacturing, values of completed construction and real turnover in retail trade in November and December indicate a considerable deceleration of economic activity in the final quarter of2008. Amid lower demand in and outside the EU, merchandise exports declined by 9.4% y-o-y in the final quarter of2008 (in nominal terms), the volume of production in manufacturing by as much as 11.0% (in real terms), while production contracted in all manufacturing sub-industries. Y-o-y growth rates of the value of completed construction (1.9%) and of real turnover in retail trade (2.3%) also slowed notably in Q4. The business sentiment indicator dropped further in February, albeit less than in previous months, which indicates that low economic activity will also continue in the first months of this year. The situation on the labour market deteriorated gradually in the final quarter of2008, and in January, the number of unemployed persons exceeded the January 2008 figure. In December, the number of employed persons declined more than it usually does in this period. In December and January, a total of 17,000 persons registered as unemployed because they lost work. The registered unemployment rate rose by 0.7p.p. to 7.0% in the last three months of2008, while the growth of the number of persons in employment declined by 1.2 p.p. y-o-y, to 1.8%, most notably in manufacturing and construction. The slowdown on the labour market was also indicated by the labour force survey, as the survey unemployment rate increased by 0.2 p.p. to 4.3%. The number of employed persons also dropped (2.2%) relative to the previous quarter, but was still 1.1% higher, on average, than in 2007. Growth of gross wages slowed significantly in the final quarter of2008 due to the slowdown in the private sector. In the final quarter, the gross wage per employee rose by 7.1% year-on-year (in nominal terms). Y-o-y growth of wages in the private sector almost halved relative to the third quarter, mainly on account of the lower number and amount of extra year-end payments relative to 2007. In the public sector, the strengthening of y-o-y growth of wages due to the process of eliminating wage disparities, which was posted in Q3, also continued in the final quarter. Nominal growth of the total gross wage in 2008 (8.3%) was much higher than in 2007 (5.9%), while the real growth rates were more level, in light of last year's higher inflation (2.5% in 2008,2.2% in 2007). The slowdown of y-o-y inflation stopped temporarily in February, after being recorded for seven months. After falling at the monthly level for five months in a row, inflation totalled 0.5% in February due to the increase in excise duties, and 2.1% year-on-year. The slowdown in y-o-y inflation was only temporary, by our estimate, given that the factors which have contributed to lower price growth (lower prices of oil and other commodities and lower economic activity) still persist. As in Slovenia, in February y-o-y inflation also increased in the total euro area (1.2%). Despite decelerated growth in the second half of the year, the current account deficit widened to EUR 2,179.9 m in 2008. The deficit increased by EUR 724.6 m last year, reaching 5.8% of estimated GDP. For the third year in a row, it was mainly driven by a higher merchandise deficit. The deficit in factor incomes also widened. The surplus Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 4 In the Spotlight in the services balance notably increased, while the deficit in current transfers narrowed. International financial transactions increased significantly last year, reaching a net capital inflow of EUR2,343.1 m, mainly as a consequence of net inflows from portfolio investment and direct investment, while the net inflow from other investment declined. The gross external debt increased by 12.2% last year, to EUR 39 bn (104.3% of estimated GDP), while net external debt increased by just over one third, to EUR 9.4 bn (25.2% of estimated GDP). The first preliminary data show that the state budget closed the year 2008 with a slight surplus. According to the draft supplementary budget, the general government balance is expected to deteriorate notably this year. According to the preliminary data, the state budget closed the year 2008 with a surplus of EUR 68 m. A small surplus was also posted by the health fund (EUR 7 m), while the pension fund balance was in equilibrium at the end of the year, owing to the transfer from the state budget in the amount of EUR 1,660.0 m. According to the available data on paid taxes and social security contributions, the slowdown in general government revenue growth also continued in January, when y-o-y growth only totalled 0.3%. The greatest decline was recorded for revenue from value added tax, which was lower than in the same month of the previous year for the third month in a row, which indicates a slowdown of economic activity. According to the draft supplementary budget for2009, the general government deficit according to the cash flow methodology (GFS 1986) will total EUR 1.1 bn this year, 2.9% of estimated GDP, which amid the expected strong slowdown of economic growth signifies a counter-cyclical fiscal policy response. current economic trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 Current Economic Trends 7 International environment Economic activity in our main trading partners fell sharply in the last quarter of2008. The volume of industrial production and the value of construction works continued to decline at a rapid pace in December, dropping by a respective 12.0% and 10.1% year-on-year. According to the first Eurostat estimates, GDP in the euro area shrank by 1.5% in Q4 2008 relative to the previous quarter, which was the third consecutive q-o-q decline. In y-o-y terms, GDP shrank by 1.2%, the first decline since data have been available (1996). In Q4 2008, GDP growth also declined or was negative in all of Slovenia's main trading partners. Amid deteriorating economic activity, the unemployment rate in the euro area continues to rise, having totalled 8.7% in January (up 1.2 p.p. from January 2008). Inflation continues to fall, and was at 1.2% in February according to the first Eurostat estimate. The business sentiment indicator in the euro area dropped further in February, albeit considerably less than in January. Amid the accelerating decline of economic activity, the Fed released revised forecasts of economic growth for the US in February. The GDP decline is projected to total between -1.3% and -0.5% in 2009 (November's forecast was between -0.2% and 1.2%). The lower 2009 forecast is mainly related to the expected decline in private consumption resulting from deteriorating conditions on the labour market and tougher lending conditions, which will also affect business investment. Somewhat stronger growth is predicted for 2010, between 2.5% and 3.3% (between 2.3% and 3.2% in November), largely based on expectations that government bailout packages and Fed measures will boost financial markets. The unemployment Figure 1: Economic growth in four main trading partners u ™ 1 -DE ---- --- IT - - AT - FR ---- V \ Q1 06 Q2 Q3 Q4 rs m ^r o a a a 1Q Source: Eurostat. Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Figure 2: Economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners outside the euro area .-• CZ PL HU ■ HR ■ RU y \ \ \ ""X \ \ Q1 06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 07 rN ro co QQQ0 1Q Source: Eurostat. Q2 Q3 Q4 5 10 4 8 3 P 6 2 U 4 0 2 0 Tabela 1: Assumptions by IMAD and forecasts of economic growth by international institutions 2008 2009 2010 CONS Feb 09 IMAD Dec 08 Alternative scenario IMAD Dec 08 CONS Jan 09 EC Jan 09 IMF Jan 09 CONS Feb 09 IMAD Dec 08 Alternative scenario IMAD Dec 08 CONS Jan 09 EC Jan 09 IMF Jan 09 CONS Feb 09 EU 1.0 -0.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 1.1 0.1 N/A 0.5 0.5 0.7 EMU 0.8 -0.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 0.9 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.7 DE 1.3 -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.8 IT -0.7 -0.6 -1.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 0.6 -0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.3 AT 1.6 0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 N/A -1.2 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.6 N/A 0.4 FR 0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.0 -1.8 -1.9 -1.4 1.0 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.8 UK 0.7 -1.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.8 -2.8 -2.6 0.8 -0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 US 1.3 -0.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 -2.1 1.3 0.3 2.3 1.7 1.6 2.0 Source: IMAD Revised Autumn Forecast (December 2008), Consensus Forecasts (January 2009), European Commission Interim Forecast (January 2009), IMF World Economic Outlook (January 2009), Consensus Forecasts (February 2009). Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 Current Economic Trends 8 rate is also expected to rise notably this year, from 5.8% in 2008 to between 8.5% and 8.8%, while it is predicted to decline in 2010. Inflation is, in contrast, projected to remain relatively low in 2008 and in the following two years. The ECB and Fed left their key interest rates unchanged in February. The key ECB interest rate remained at January's level of 2.0% and the key Fed interest rate at the level of December, in an interval between 0.0% and 0.25%. The interest rates on interbank markets continue to drop. The three-month EURIBOR averaged 1.94% in February, down by 0.5 p.p. from January. Oil prices remained stable in February, moving slightly above USD 40 per barrel, as they did in January. In February, the average price of Brent crude oil totalled USD 43.3 per barrel, up 0.3% from January, and down 53.9% year-on-year. The euro depreciated against the main world currencies in February. The euro continued to lose value against the US dollar, which depreciated by 3.4% relative to January (the average exchange rate of USD 1.2785 to EUR 1), against the Japanese yen (the average exchange rate of JPY 118.30 to EUR 1) and against the Swiss franc (the average exchange rate of CHF 1.4904 to EUR 1). After rising for three consecutive months, the value of the euro also depreciated against the British pound sterling (the average exchange rate of GBP 0.8869 to EUR 1). Following the tightening of the financial and economic crisis last autumn, the values of currencies in some main trading partners notably declined. Figure 3: Movements of selected currencies against the USD ! Ä e .£= 170 -GBP - ----CZK sni —•- HUF - .....«....... PLN ia eg 160 -EUR - -HRK et ta 150 -----RUB Economic developments in Slovenia On account of the notable decline in merchandise exports in November and December, the drop in merchandise exports in Q4 2008 (-9.4%1) was the largest since data have been available (1996). Nominal merchandise export growth has been slowing gradually since Q4 2007, which goes hand in hand with the slowdown of economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners and consequent lower import demand. The latter worsened further in the second half of 2008, and in the wake of low growth in Q3 (3.3%), merchandise exports dropped by almost a tenth in Q4, mainly as a result of significant declines in November (-14.1%) and December (-15.3%). Given that some 70% of all merchandise exports are exports to EU countries, the dynamics of Slovenia's merchandise exports is crucially dependent on economic activity in EU Member States. Merchandise exports to EU countries started to decline y-o-y in Q3 (-0.9%), dropping by 12.5% in Q4. Given that the cooling of economic growth in Slovenia's trading partners outside the EU is slower than in the EU, in Q3 growth of our merchandise exports to these countries was still relatively strong (12.7%), while in Q4 these exports also declined y-o-y (-2.2%). Growth of merchandise exports slowed notably in 2008 (1.9%), after four years of vigorous growth (14.5%). Figure 4: Slovenia's merchandise export growth and GDP in the EU — Merchandise exports (left axis)* - GDP in EU (right axis) a a a a a a Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. a a a a a Source: SORS, Eurostat. Note: *IMAD's estimate of Q4 merchandise exports. Merchandise imports saw similar dynamics as exports and also dropped y-o-y in the final quarter of2008 (-7.1%). Nominal growth in merchandise imports has also been slowing gradually since Q4 2007, similar to merchandise exports; while it was still relatively strong in Q3 2008 (10.1%), it fell steeply in November and December (-13.3%). The drop in imports is related to the slowdown in 20 5 16 4 12 3 8 2 tu 4 0 0 -12 70 1 According to the external trade statistics. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 9 Current Economic Trends domestic and foreign demand. A breakdown by purpose shows that after increasing notably in the first nine months of the year (19.1%), imports of investment goods declined on average (by -8.3%) in October and November, as a result of modest domestic investment activity at the end of 2008. Imports of consumer goods, representing just below one third of the value of domestic private consumption, also recorded a sizeable decline (-8.1%). Imports of intermediate goods dropped as well (-1.9% on average), in October and November, amid the declining production activity in manufacturing. After four years of vigorous growth, from Slovenia's accession to the EU to 2007 (15.2%), imports posted a slowdown of growth in 2008, to 6.7%. Figure 5: Geographic distribution of merchandise exports EU non-member a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The terms of trade improved somewhat in November,2 for the first time after deteriorating for a year. Export prices increased by 1.5% y-o-y in November (2.0% in October), while growth of import prices fell considerably for the second month in a row, to 0.6% (2.9% in October), amid the sharp drop in prices of oil and other commodities in November. After worsening slightly again in October, the terms of trade improved by 0.9% y-o-y in November. In the first eleven months of 2008, export price growth was lower (index 101.8) than import price growth (index 105.0), while the terms of trade deteriorated by 3.0% (0.5% in the same period of 2007). Growth in exports of services remained high (13.9%) in the final quarter of2008, but posted a decline in December. After witnessing high figures in October in November, nominal growth in exports of services declined y-o-y in December (-0.8%). In Q4 2008, total export growth was mainly underpinned by exports of travel, various professional and technical services and road transport. The contribution of Figure 6: Terms of merchandise trade ^^^B Terms of trade -----Export prices -Import prices 108 < z S < Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 7: Trade in services 30 — Exports of services Imports of services 2 According to the external trade statistics. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. the latter declined relative to Q3, while the contributions of the other two groups notably increased. Growth in services was gradually slowing, but remained high, on average, in the year as a whole (19.4%). Growth in imports of services moderated further in Q4 (1.3%). After posting modest y-o-y nominal growth in November (0.9%), imports of services picked up again in December (7.6%). While imports of services enjoyed strong growth in the first half of the year (18.1%), they slowed notably in Q3 (2.2%) and even more in Q4. In Q4 2008, growth in imports of services was mainly driven by rises in transport and travel services, while the contribution of the group of other services was negative, largely on account of the decline in imports of 98 96 94 20 15 10 ~ 5 25 0 20 10 5 0 10 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2007 XII 08/ XI 08 XII 08/ XII 07 I-XII 08/ I-XII 07 Exports1 16.9 -18.8 -12.1 5.2 -goods 16.3 -21.1 -15.0 2.4 -services 20.1 -9.9 -0.8 18.0 Imports1 18.3 -7.8 -9.7 7.1 -goods 18.1 -12.8 -12.6 6.9 -services 20.1 26.0 7.6 8.5 Industrial production 6.2 -4.02 -17.53 -1.5 -manufacturing 7.5 -4.72 -19.93 -1.7 Construction -value of construction put in place 18.2 -9.62 -4.13 15.1 Distributive trade - turnover in distributive trade and the sale and repair of motor vehicles 9.5 -1.12 -0.63 10.4 Hotels and restauransts - turnover in hotels and restaurants 0.3 -1.32 -8.43 -4.0 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'balance of payments statistics, 2seasonally adjusted ,3working-day adjusted data construction services as a consequence of decelerated construction activity at the end of 2008. After posting high figures in 2007 (20.1%), growth in exports of services slowed (8.5%) in 2008. In December, production activity in manufacturing was extremely low, decreasing by more than a tenth year-on-year in the last quarter of2008. After a significant decline of production activity in November, the shrinkage in December was even more pronounced. The volume of production contracted by 4.7% (seasonally adjusted) compared with November, and by as much as 19.9% (working-day adjusted) compared to December 2007. Mainly due to the last two months of 2008, the Figure 8: Industrial production in manufacturing I Y-o-y ■ Seasonally adjusted, q-o-q quarterly growth was at its lowest since the beginning of measurement (1996), at -11.0% (y-o-y) and -10.3% (q-o-q, seasonally adjusted). Negative quarterly growth was thus recorded for the second successive year; for this reason, the volume of industrial production in manufacturing also declined at the annual level relative to the previous year (by -1.7%). In the final quarter of2008, the volume of production declined in all manufacturing subsectors. In Q4, the shrinkage was largest in the manufacture of transport equipment, by over 30%, while the production volume in the textile industry declined by 25%. The textile industry also recorded the largest decline in the number of employees, by as many as 1,902 persons relative to the final quarter of 2007. In total manufacturing, the number of employed persons dropped by 4,973 in the same period, posting the largest decline in December. According to the business tendency data, the indicator of employment expectations improved somewhat in February, after hitting bottom in December 2008. Other indicators of expectations in the manufacturing sector, except expected prices, were also slightly less pessimistic in February, but the current situation indicators deteriorated, most of them again dropping to new lows. Figure 9: Industrial production in manufacturing by subsectors 15 10 5 0 -5 JZ Ï or -10 rg y- -o- -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 - Jan-Sep 2008/Jan-Sep 2007 - Oct-Dec 2008/0ct-Dec 2007 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. D DJ DG DL DK DE DA DH DM DN DI DD DB DC Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: sub-industries arranged by size (see the list of acronyms). Similar developments were also seen in the EU-27, but in Slovenia the slowdown of the production volume in manufacturing in the final quarter of the year was more pronounced. Most manufacturing subsectors in Slovenia posted a larger production decline than the comparable industries in the EU-27; the shrinkage was particularly pronounced in the leather industry. Slovenia posted better results than the EU-27 for four industries: in particular, for the chemical industry, which in Slovenia has a somewhat larger share of the pharmaceutical industry, which is, by our estimate, less dependent on cyclical trends, as well 10 8 6 4 2 0 -12 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 11 Current Economic Trends as for the manufacture of non-metal mineral products, which is most dependent on movements in construction, where activity is decelerating at a slower pace than in the EU-27. Figure 10: Comparison of industrial production in manufacturing in the EU-27 in 2008 Source: Eurostat. Note: *growth in the first eleven months of 2008. In December, construction activity declined. Y-o-y growth posted a significant slowdown in Q4 (1.9%). The value of construction put in place in December was 9.6% lower than in November, according to the seasonally adjusted data, and down 4.1% from December 2007 (working-day adjusted). After posting strong growth at the beginning of the year and slowdowns in Q2 and Q3, construction activity slowed again in Q4. Y-o-y growth in Q4 was nevertheless still positive, which is mainly attributable to relatively high construction activity in October. In Q4, growth slowed in all construction sectors, in residential construction3 to 33.0%, in civil-engineering to 7.0%, while the drop in non-residential construction deepened (-14.0%). In 2008 as a whole, growth in the value of construction put in place remained at a similar level as in 2007, totalling 15.1%. The most recent data on new contracts and building permits issued in 2008 indicate a further slowdown of activity. According to the construction statistics, the value of the stock of contracts at the end of the year was 8.1% lower than the year before, and the value of new contracts decreased by 8.9% year-on-year in Q4 2008. The slowdown is also suggested by the provisional data on issued building permits, given that in the final quarter, the total planned floor area of all buildings was 16.0% lower than in the same period of 2007, which is due to a 3 In interpreting data on the value of residential construction, it should be noted that these figures exclude the activity of smaller enterprises, where the main activity is judged to be the construction of residential buildings. Figure 11: Value of construction put in place a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. significant decline in non-residential buildings (by 52.0%); the total planned floor area of residential buildings, in contrast, increased (by 19.0%). Despite the improvement in Q4, the total planned floor area of residential buildings declined by a fifth in 2008, relative to the year before. The total planned area of non-residential buildings decreased by 25%. The largest decline was posted for hotels and similar buildings (-67.0%), while in wholesale and retail trade buildings the fall was considerable as well (34.0%). Electricity production rose year-on-year in January, largely on account of increased output of hydroelectric power plants, while the decline in consumption was mainly linked to lower production of aluminium. Electricity production rose by 4.8% year-on-year in January, most notably in hydroelectric power plants (33.5%), while electricity production in thermal power plants and in the nuclear power plant changed marginally (by -2.0% and +0.3%, respectively). Electricity consumption dropped by 7.5% y-o-y, much less than in December (-14.0%). Nearly two-thirds of the decline came from decreased consumption in aluminium production (-53.4%), given the fall in global prices and a considerable decline in orders. Consumption from the distribution network dropped by a mere 1.4% y-o-y in January (9.7% in December). Increased electricity production and lower consumption translated into an almost six times higher surplus (net electricity exports) relative to January last year, which, reaching 174 GWh, accounted for 14.0% of production. Real turnover in retail trade4 declined in December. In Q4, it recorded its weakest y-o-y growth in 2008 as a whole. In December, real turnover also recorded its first year-on-year drop in the year (-0.6%, working-day adjusted). Real turnover in the sale of motor vehicles went down year-on- 4 In retail trade, sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and retail sale of automotive fuels (50+52). Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 12 Current Economic Trends year for the third month in a row (-16.9%), given that the number of new car registrations dropped by 28.1%. Real turnover in the retail sale of non-food products recorded its second drop in Q4 (-2.3%). In the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco, real turnover growth slowed for the second consecutive month (0.6%). All sectors thus posted slower growth in Q4, while real turnover in the retail sale of motor vehicles even declined. Owing to high rates in the first nine months of the year, retail trade nevertheless saw higher annual growth than in 2007 (10.4%). The confidence indicator dropped further in February, according to the seasonally adjusted data. Figure 12: Real turnover in retail trade -Retail trade -----Sale of food and non-food products Figure 13: Real turnover in hotels and restaurants - Sale and maintenance of motor vehicles, retail sale of automotive fuels oaaaoaaaoaaa a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In December, activity in hotels and restaurants declined again. In Q4, this decline was the largest in 2008 (-5.8%). Real turnover dropped y-o-y for the sixth consecutive month, again mainly on account of the decline in accommodation services (-18.8%), where in Q4 the real turnover drop was greatest in the whole year. Q4 saw the smallest increase in the number of tourists' overnight stays in the whole year (0.6%), given that the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists declined (-4.8%) relative to the same period of 2007, despite December's 6.5% growth. In the year as a whole, the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists dropped by 0.5%, while the number of domestic tourists' overnight stays increased by 5.2%. With 1.8% growth in the number of overnight stays (7.0% in 2007), real turnover in accommodation services dropped by 6.6% in 2008 (1.2% growth in 2007), while the total activity of hotels and restaurants recorded a 4.0% decline. ■ Hotels and restaurants Food Beverages - Accommodation a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. year, given that the number of new car registrations by natural persons declined by as much as one third y-o-y in January (albeit from nearly 25% growth in January last year). The value of the consumer confidence indicator otherwise strengthened more notably in February, rising from its historical lows in the past three months, but consumers are nevertheless still much more pessimistic than in February 2007. Figure 14: Private consumption indicators I Net wage bill (real terms) Turnover in retail trade (real terms) ■ Number of first car registrations by natural persons* - Consumer confidence indicator, original value (right axis) I I I Il lil hill 30 d d u 5 15 SZ ro £ o d> 0 ro -Q "o d> -15 ro (U < a a a Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. Note: «data from March 2006 onward. Household consumption started to show more visible signs of moderation at the end of the year. The slowdown of household consumption, which was already suggested by the consumer confidence indicator in previous months, is evidenced by real turnover in retail trade, which decreased by 0.6% y-o-y in December. Similar developments are also expected for the beginning of this The business sentiment indicator dropped slightly again in February, mainly due to the flagging confidence in the service sector. The service sector, where the sentiment indicator started falling at a later time than in other sectors, saw a deterioration in the values of all current situation indicators, as well as in all indicators of 8 4 0 12 16 30 25 20 15 ^ 10 5 0 5 24 16 3 ? 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 13 Current Economic Trends Box 1: Second package of measures in response to the financial and economic turmoil The government of the RS adopted the first package of measures to alleviate the consequences of the financial and economic crisis at the end of2008. The measures were mainly aimed at increasing liquidity in the banking system, cutting public expenditure and keeping jobs by providing additional incentives for the economy. The lending activity of banks is also to be boosted by funds acquired from the sale of the new government benchmark bond in the amount of EUR 1 bn with a maturity of three years, which was issued at the beginning of February 2009. The second stimulus package, which upgraded the first package with concrete measures, was adopted in February 2009. A considerable amount of funds is still aimed at boosting the lending activities of banks to improve liquidity and enhance lending to enterprises, while some of the funds are intended for development-oriented measures. Along with the second package, the government of the RS also adopted savings measures, which will allow for annual savings in the amount of up to EUR 130 m in 2009. The measures in the second package are temporary (until the end of 2010). The highest permitted amount of state guarantees was already agreed in December and is limited to EUR 12 bn, of which around EUR 1.5 bn is currently reserved, mainly within the framework of additional borrowing of commercial banks and the SID bank borrowing abroad. To revive lending to enterprises, the second package envisages a guarantee scheme for general granting of loans to enterprises (EUR 1 bn) and individual state guarantees for enterprises in the amount of EUR 500 m. Within the measures to improve the capital adequacy, EUR 160 m is earmarked for the recapitalisation of the SID bank (to EUR 300 m). Besides guarantees and the increase in the capital adequacy of the SID bank, the second package also envisages additional funds in the total amount of about EUR 300 m. The measures will be financed from the integral budget, by the SID bank funds, by redirecting cohesion policy funds and by funds from the EIB credit line. Measures to protect endangered industrial sectors also represent a vital part of the stimulus package. They involve shortening of the payment periods for the VAT reimbursement from 60 to 21 days (EUR 120 m), support for research and development in the area of clean and technologically-advanced industries (EUR 100 m) and low-value aid within the new de minimis scheme for SMEs (EUR 20 m). These measures are set to increase the working capital of enterprises and improve their competitive position on the global market. The government also adopted measures to improve labour market operation, stimulate life-long learning and increase social security (EUR 21 m), to promote energy rehabilitation of publicly-owned buildings (up to EUR 20 m) and provide broadband internet access to public institutions (EUR 15 m). expectations. In other sectors, confidence also fell again, albeit less notably than in previous months. Only the consumer confidence indicator rose, mainly as a result of more optimistic expectations regarding employment in the coming 12 months. Figure 15: Business tendency ■ Economic sentiment ■ Retail trade - Service act. Manufacturing Consumers Construction Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Labour market The situation in the labour market in terms of employment andunemploymentisdeteriorating.Thenumberofpersons in formal employment (employed and self-employed) declined by 6,652 in December (-0.8%), within that two-thirds due to the termination of fixed-term employment contracts. In previous years, the December decline in formal employment was a regular seasonal phenomenon linked to the termination of temporary workers' contracts before the Christmas holidays, as well as to the fact that most public work programmes for the unemployed end in December. In December 2008, the number of such terminations was much higher than in previous years. The number of persons in formal employment declined in almost all activities, most notably in construction and manufacturing. Employment only increased in health and social care, and in other social, community and personal services. The number of registered vacancies and the number of persons hired increased somewhat in January relative to December, but remained around a third lower than the year before. The number of formally employed persons was still 1.8% higher in December 2008 relative to December 2007, despite the decline, while the average number of persons in formal employment in 2008 was 3.0% higher than that in 2007. Broken down by activities, the most notable 2008 increase was, as in previous 40 30 20 10 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 14 Current Economic Trends Tabela 3: Persons in formal employment by activity Numbers in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % XII 08 Q4 08 2008 2007 XII 08/ XII 07 Q4 08/ Q4 07 2008/ 2007 2007/ 2006 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT - total 880.3 885.1 879.3 8540 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.5 A Agriculture, hunting, forestry 39.9 40.0 40.8 41.4 -0.4 -0.3 -1.4 6.8 B Fishing 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.2 1.9 -1.6 -6.7 C Mining and quarrying 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 -7.3 -6.8 -5.4 -5.6 D Manufacturing 222.7 225.5 228.6 229.9 -3.1 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 E Electricity, gas and water supply 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.2 F Construction 88.5 90.0 87.0 77.8 9.3 10.2 11.8 11.3 G Wholesale and retail trade, motor vehicle repair 116.6 116.7 115.5 111.7 2.0 2.4 3.4 3.4 H Hotels and restaurants 34.0 34.0 33.5 32.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 I Transport, storage, communications 58.7 59.0 58.4 55.4 3.1 3.7 5.4 7.3 J Financial intermediation 23.5 23.5 23.1 22.3 4.0 4.1 3.6 2.8 K Real estate, renting and business activities 83.4 83.5 81.3 75.6 7.1 7.3 7.6 8.3 L Public administration and comp. soc. security 50.6 50.8 50.7 50.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 -0.2 M Education 60.5 60.5 59.6 58.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.6 N Health and social work 53.0 52.8 52.3 51.3 3.0 2.6 2.0 1.1 O Other community, social and personal services 33.3 33.2 32.7 31.5 3.0 3.0 3.9 3.7 P Private households with employed persons 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 10.4 10.3 6.4 0.8 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. quarters, recorded in construction and real estate, renting and business services, while mining, fisheries and agriculture posted declines. In the final quarter of 2008, the number of persons in formal employment according to the labour force survey dropped by 2.2% relative to the previous quarter, and increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The number of persons in formal employment was in 2008, on average, 1.1% higher than in 2007.5 Y-o-y growth in the number of employed persons according to the survey is low relative to the high growth of the number of persons in formal employment, chiefly due to a high increase in the number of foreigners among the formally employed, as foreigners are not covered by the labour force survey. The number of registered unemployed persons rose to 73,911 in January, exceeding by 6.7% the number of the registered unemployed in January 2008. Owing to the decline in the number of the employed and the increase in the number of the unemployed, December's registered unemployment rate rose by 0.3 p.p. to 7.0%. A total of 12,895 persons registered as unemployed in January; within that, 10,381 registered because they lost work, which is more than in December and more than in January last year; the number of the unemployed who were deregistered from the unemployment register was lower than in December and also lower than in January last year. A total of 6,083 persons (2,700 more than in January last year) registered as unemployed after losing 5 According to the preliminary calculations by IMAD based on the quarterly data by SORS. Figure 16: Gains in the number of employed persons by activity h Q1 2008 / Q1 2007 Q2 2008 / Q2 2007 ■ Q3 2008 / Q3 2007 IQ4 2008 / Q4 2007 I U u _c o " Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. temporary jobs, 1,950 lost work for business and 2,348 for other reasons (1,800 more, in total, than in January last year). Altogether, 3,179 unemployed persons found jobs (948 fewer than in January last year) and the number of the unemployed dropped by a further 738 for other reasons in January (1,057 fewer than in January last year). In Q4 2008, the number of the unemployed according to the labour force survey increased as well, to 45,000, 2.3% 14 10 ~ 8 ro 6 4 2 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 15 Current Economic Trends more than in the previous quarter, but still 8.2% less than in the same quarter of 2007. The survey unemployment rate also increased, to 4.3%, 0.2 p.p. more than in the previous and 0.4 p.p. less than in the same quarter of 2007. The average number of the unemployed, according to the labour force survey, reached 46,000 in 2008,6 8.8% less than in 2007, while the survey unemployment rate fell by 0.5 p.p., to 4.4%. Figure 17: Components of the increase in registered unemployment Other outflows from unemployment (net) Unemployed persons who found work New first-time job-seekers Lost work -Increase in registered unemployment 12 Table 4: Labour market indicators Source: ESS, calculations by IMAD. Y-o-y growth in gross wages slowed notably in the last quarter of 2008 (7.1%), while in 2008 as a whole, it was, on average, much higher than in 2007. In December, the Figure 18: Gross wage per employee and labour productivity - Total Private sector (A-K) Public sector (L-O) - Labour productivity a a o a a a o 5 5 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In % 2007 XII 08/ XI 08 XII 08/ XII 07 I-XII 08/ I-XII 07 Labour force 1.6 -0.4 1.5 1.9 Persons in formal employment 3.5 -0.8 1.8 3.0 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed 3.3 -0.8 1.7 3.1 Registered unemployed -16.9 4.5 -3.2 -11.4 Average nominal gross wage 5.9 -6.0 8.6 8.3 - private sector 6.9 -7.9 6.7 7.8 - public sector 4.1 -1.3 13.2 9.7 2007 XII 07 XI 08 XII 08 Rate of registered unemployment, v % 7.7 7.3 6.7 7.0 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,284.79 1,342.80 1,550.29 1,457.66 Private sector (in EUR) 1,217.14 1,280.12 1,482.97 1,365.45 Public sector (in EUR) 1,485.09 1,529.80 1,753.49 1,731.45 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. gross wage per employee declined by a nominal 6.0% compared with the previous month, reaching 8.6% y-o-y growth. As a result of the slowdown in the private sector, total wage growth dropped markedly in Q4. In 2008, the average total gross wage increase was nevertheless significantly higher than the comparable increase in 2007 (5.9%). Owing to the rising average personal income tax rate, net wage growth was half a percentage point slower than gross wage growth. Nominal wage growth started to surpass nominal productivity growth in both sectors in Q2 2008, considerably more in the public sector. As a consequence of slowing economic activity, growth of wages in the private sector slowed markedly in Q4 2008 (4.9%). December's 7.9% drop in the gross wage in the Figure 19: Gross wages in the private sector ■ Agriculture, fishing (A, B) - Production services (G to I) - Industry, construction (C to F) Business services (J to K) 6 According to the preliminary calculations by IMAD based on the quarterly data by SORS. aaoaaaoa 5 5 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 10 8 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 16 Current Economic Trends Box2: Agreement on Measures in the Area of Public Sector Wages for the 2009-2010 period In February, the government and the representative trade unions of the public sector signed the Agreement on Measures in the Area of Public Sector wages for the 2009-2010period due to the changed macroeconomic situation. The agreed measures will allow for the adjustment of the adopted public sector wage system to the new macroeconomic and fiscal framework and tougher economic conditions. This is a step towards a somewhat better balance between this year's wage rises in the public sector and labour productivity growth, and from the social acceptability aspect, towards diminishing high disparities in the foreseen 2009 wage rises in the public and in the private sectors. These measures will, by our estimate, result in a nearly 3 p.p. lower growth of public sector wages than predicted in the Revised Autumn Forecast by IMAD. With the implementation of the agreed measures, general government expenditure on wages is predicted to decline by EUR 100 m in total according to the first estimates. The measures mainly pertain to the adjustment of wages in July, disbursement of the third quarter of funds to eliminate wage disparities as well as payment of work performance bonuses and holiday allowances. The general July adjustment of public sector wages will not be carried out this year. The disbursement of the third quarter of funds to eliminate wage disparities is to be postponed from 1 September 2009 to 1 January 2010, while the last quarter of funds will be paid on 1 March 2010 as stipulated by the Collective Agreement for the Public Sector currently in force. Employees and directors in the public sector will not receive regular performance bonuses from April through November this year. The directors who receive regular performance bonuses as a one-off payment will receive 4/12 of the eligible annual amount. In 2009, bonuses for increased workload will be limited to a total of 30% of the public employee's basic wage. The annual holiday allowance will be paid to all employees, in the same amount as last year (EUR 672), i.e. without adjustment to inflation. The negotiating parties also confirmed changes in the classification of some pivotal jobs and job titles and agreed that further negotiations should be carried out in order to eliminate deficiencies of the wage system. Figure 20: Gross wages in the public sector a a a Source: SORS. private sector is related to the dynamics of extra payments at the end of the year. In December, the number of recipients of year-end payments was notably lower than in November (6.5% of employees, compared with 19.9% in November), and these payments were smaller (13th month payments in December were, on average, more than a fifth lower than in November). Growth in private sector gross wages stood at 6.7% y-o-y in December. In the first half of the previous year, it was still at 8.8%, while in the second half of the year it slowed (7.1%) due to the exceptional moderation in Q4, averaging 7.8% for the year as a whole. Y-o-y growth of public sector wages in the public sector strengthened further in Q4 2008 (12.8%) and was much stronger than growth of wages in the private sector. In December, the average gross wage in the public sector dropped (by 1.3%), but increased by 13.2% y-o-y. Growth of public sector wages totalled 7.1% in the first half of 2008. I n the second half of the year, it accelerated (12.3%), as a result of the beginning of disbursement of funds to eliminate wage disparities, reaching an average of 9.7% for the year as a whole, a much higher figure than in 2007. Given that the volume of funds disbursed to eliminate disparities was highest in the health and social care sector, this sector recorded the highest y-o-y growth rates of wages in the whole period since August 2008 (21.0% in December). Prices After slowing for seven months, inflation increased somewhat in February. Reaching 0.5% at the monthly level in February, inflation returned from 1.6% in January to the level of December (2.1%) in year-on-year terms. The gradual slowdown of average inflation continued (from 5.2% in January to 4.9% in February). In January, price movement was mainly marked by seasonal factors. In line with expectations, the general level of prices declined, owing to clothing and footwear price drops because of sales. Clothing and footwear prices contributed -1.2 p.p. to monthly deflation. The increase in fruit and vegetable prices was similar to that recorded last year (contribution of 0.4 p.p.). Prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating did not contribute to inflation Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 Current Economic Trends 17 Figure 21: Inflation in Slovenia and in the whole euro area 12 -Slovenia: Inflation Figure 22: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation ■ Slovenia: Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food - Euro area: Inflation Euro area: Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food Source: SORS, Eurostat. in January, given that they remained unchanged, due to two increases in excise duties on liquid fuels for drive and heating purposes (estimated contribution 0.5 p.p.). Electricity prices rose (11.5%) as a result of the Government's decision to raise network charges and introduce additional contributions to provide support to electricity production from renewable energy sources and high-efficiency cogeneration and to ensure reliable electricity supply from domestic primary energy sources. Y-o-y growth of prices is slowing in most consumer price Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. index groups. A total of 0.6 p.p. of January's 1.6% y-o-y inflation came from food price rises and around -1 p.p., according to our estimate, from oil price rises on account of liquid fuels for transport and heating. In January, the contribution of rises in prices of other goods already dropped somewhat (1.0 p.p.) from the relatively high level of December 2008 (1.5 p.p.), as a consequence of slower growth of gas and district heating prices, as well as prices of clothing and footwear. Amid the slowdown of economic activity, prices of services show signs of moderation in recent months, having contributed 1.0 8 7 6 10 5 8 4 3 6 p 2 4 0 -1 2 -2 0 Table 5: Prices 2008 2009 XII 2008/ ® (I 08-XII 08)/ I 2009/ I 2009/ ® (II 08-I 09)/ XII 2007 ® (I 07-XII 07) XII 2008 I 2008 ® (II 07-I 08) Consumer prices (CPI) 2.1 5.7 -0.4 1.6 5.2 Goods 1.3 6.0 -0.7 0.8 5.4 - Fuel and energy -7.2 10.6 2.6 -7.2 8.7 - Other 3.2 5.0 -1.3 2.3 4.8 Services 3.8 5.0 0.2 3.3 4.9 Consumer prices (HICP) 1.8 5.5 -0.3 1.4 5.1 Administered prices1 -7.8 9.6 -0.5 -7.2 7.2 - Energy -11.9 14.4 -0.8 -12.2 11.6 - Other 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 Core inflation - trimmean 2.6 3.9 -0.3 2.0 3.7 - excluding (fresh) food & energy 3.9 4.6 -1.2 2.9 4.5 Consumer prices in the EMU 1.6 3.3 -0.8 1.1 3.1 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers - domestic market 3.5 5.6 -0.4 2.3 5.2 - EMU 0.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 2.1 Sources: SORS. Eurostat. calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 due to annual changes of the administered price index. figures are not directly comparable across years. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 18 Current Economic Trends Box3: HICP excluding the impact of taxes The slowing of inflation decelerated somewhat, owing to the increase in excise duties on gas oil for transport and heating. In view of the rapid lowering of inflation and slowing economic activity and related uncertainty about how to ensure public finance stability, the Government redirected the measures of the counter-cyclical policy of excise duty adjustment from the stabilisation of inflation swings to the stabilisation of budget revenues. It will thus offset part of the oil price reduction on global markets by increasing excise duties on liquid fuels for transport and heating to slow the falling of inflation below the equilibrium level. At the same time it is attempting to compensate somewhat for the waning sources of other general government revenues. In December 2008 and January this year, the Government thus increased excise duties on gas oil for transport and heating, which added approximately 0.7 p.p. to inflation. Had this not been the case, y-o-y growth of the harmonised consumer price index would have totalled 0.7% instead of 1.4%. The Government also raised excise duties on alcohol effective March 1, and adopted a proposal for the Act Amending the Excise Duty Act increasing excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products effective May 1. Figure 23: Consumer price index growth -CPI -CPI excluding the impact of taxes a a a a a a ro ro ro ro ro ro Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. p.p. to y-o-y inflation in January (1.5 p.p. in the previous January). The slowdown of core inflation strengthened somewhat in January. Year-on-year growth of consumer prices excluding non-processed food and energy prices (core inflation) dropped over the past few months, to 2.9% in January according to our estimates. Besides weaker growth in processed food prices (from 11.3% in April 2008 to 3.5% in January), the key factor in the slowdown Box 4: Movements on the real estate market In February, the Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia (SMARS) published indicators for Q4 2008 suggesting that the slowdown on the housing market, which was already perceived in Q3 2008, continues.1 The decline in the number of transactions is deepening, given that the number of flats sold in Slovenia in Q4 2008 halved relative to the last quarter of 2007. An even more pronounced standstill was recorded for the sale of one- and two-dwelling buildings (family houses), given that in Q4 2008, the number of transactions dropped by half relative to the previous quarter, reaching a mere 25% of the value recorded in Q4 2007. The lowering of economic activity only started to have a more notable impact on the average values of transactions in Q4. The average value of flats sold in Q4 fell somewhat further compared to the previous quarter (by 2.2%), when the upward trend reversed, while it is still increasing year-on-year (by 5.3%), although the increase is gradually diminishing. According to the SMARS data, the drop in the average values of transactions is more pronounced in family houses (an 18.9% decline compared with the previous quarter, and also the first y-o-y decline, by -7.1%). Figure 24: Trends of average values and the number of transactions 150 140 130 120 - Flats - number of transactions Houses -number of transactions - Flats, m2 - average value Houses -average value — ----' \ \ r' \ --- ^^^ \ 110 o 2 100 liï o 90 o CN V\ \Â 5 80 00000 \ \ \ % Q1 07 rN m co rN a a a o a 1Q Source: SMARS; calculations by IMAD o Q 1 According to the SMARS methodology, it is, by our estimate, more correct to use the term "the average values of transactions" instead of "average prices", because in addition to prices these are also affected by changes in the structure of sold dwellings. SORS, which tries to exclude these structural changes in its analyses, has not yet released its data for Q4 2008. For more see SEM, December 2008. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 19 Current Economic Trends Table 6: Selected price competitiveness indicators Average annual growth rates, % 2006 2007 2008 Q I 08 Q II 08 Q III 08 Q IV 08 Real effective exchange rate1 Deflator CPI 0.7 2.3 2.8 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.1 Deflator PPI2 -0.8 2.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.3 Components Nominal effective exchange rate 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 -1.1 Relativ CPI 0.5 1.4 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.1 1.0 Relativ PPI2 -1.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.5 Source: SORS. BS. ECB. OECD; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1against 17 main trading partners: Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherland, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Chech Rep., Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan; Manufacturing activity on domestic market. of core inflation was also the moderation of growth in service prices. Core inflation measured by the trimmean method is also slowing at a rapid pace, totalling 2.0% in January, after peaking at 4.7% last July. Domestic producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market dropped in January. They fell by 0.4% relative to December, and were on a downward trend for the fourth consecutive month. Y-o-y growth of prices also continues to slow, standing at 2.3% this January, after reaching 6.7% in August 2008. These movements are largely attributable to the slower price rises in the manufacture of food, beverages and animal feed and in the manufacture of metals and metal products. January 1 otherwise saw important methodology changes with regard to the beginning of the use of the new standard classification of activities (SCA 208), the national variant of the new classification of economic activities NACE Rev2., which, according to the new EU regulation, replaced the previous classification NACE Rev.1.1. Figure 25: Producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market Producer prices of manufactured goods, total Manufacture of food products Manufacture of metals and metal products The increased worsening of price competitiveness in 2008 was related to accelerated growth in relative consumer prices.7 The increase in the nominal effective exchange rate (0.5%) was lower than in 2007, due to the rapid depreciation of the EUR against the USD, JPY and CHF since August 2007. Amid a gradual slowdown in the second half of the year, growth of relative consumer prices in 2008 increased, owing to accelerated growth in the first six months. Real growth of the effective exchange rate measured by relative consumer prices was, therefore, also stronger (2.8%, against 2.3% in 2007), even though in Q4 the exchange rate was already slightly falling, after posting considerable growth in the first half of the year and slower growth in Q3. Real growth of the effective exchange rate deflated by relative producer prices in manufacturing was much lower (at 1%) in 2008. Relative growth of producer prices was modest in 2008, except in Q4, when the growth of producer prices in manufacturing moderated at a slower pace in Figure 26: Real effective exchange rates in the euro area, deflated by HICP 5 2007 ■ 2008 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Source: SORS. 7 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 20 Current Economic Trends Slovenia than in Slovenia's trading partners. In 2008, price competitiveness also deteriorated more notably in most other euro area members. Six Member States recorded higher deterioration of price competitiveness than Slovenia, compared with 2007, when the deterioration was only higher in Ireland. The dynamics of price competitiveness outside the euro area was, particularly in Q4 2008, strongly influenced by the volatility of the euro on international currency markets. Due to the significant depreciation of the EUR against the USD, JPY and CHF, price competitiveness outside the EU significantly improved. As a result of the concurrent considerable strengthening of the EUR against the GBP, but also against the CZK, PLN, HUF and SEK, price competitiveness against the other EU trading partners, which are not members of the euro area, notably deteriorated. The dynamics of price competitiveness against other euro area members were relatively more stable, thanks to the common currency, which eliminates any foreign exchange risk. Figure 27: Real effective exchange rates against Slovenia's main trading partners, deflated by CPI a a a a a ro ro ro ro ro Source: ECB, SORS, OECD; calculations by IMAD. Note: "includes Croatia, Russia and Turkey. Balance of payments The current account deficit widened in 2008, posting slower growth in the second half of the year. The deficit totalled EUR 2,179 m in 2008 as a whole (5.8% of the estimated GDP) and was EUR 724.6 higher than in 2007. For the third year in a row, the annual deficit growth was mainly underpinned by the higher merchandise deficit. The factor income deficit was higher as well. The surplus in the services balance widened, while the deficit in current transfers decreased. Figure 28: Components of the current account balance ^^M Trade balance ^^m Services balance Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The merchandise deficit was widening notably in the first three quarters of2008, while in the final quarter its growth slowed; in 2008 as a whole, the merchandise deficit totalled EUR2,661 m, up EUR 995.6 m from 2007. In addition to the quantity movements of exports and imports, nominal merchandise deficit growth was also largely affected by the deteriorated terms of trade. In the last quarter, the impact of the latter was smaller than in the first three quarters of 2008, by our estimate, due to the falling prices of oil and other primary commodities. According to the available data, the worsened conditions of trade contributed 53.6% to merchandise deficit growth in the first eleven months of 2008 (63.5% in the first three quarters of 2008). The purchasing power of exports or the real value of income from exports, which was still high in the comparable period of 2007 (12.5%), also declined somewhat (-1.1%). According to the balance of payments statistics, Slovenia's deficit with EU countries widened by EUR 886.7 m to EUR 3,848.2 m in 2008, while the surplus in trade with non-EU countries narrowed by EUR 108.9 m to EUR 1,186.6 m. The latter is largely a consequence of developments in Q4, when exports to non-EU members declined, while growth rates of imports were still relatively high. The surplus in the services balance has been widening gradually since Q2 2008, reaching EUR 1,702.5 m in total in 2008, a 2.5 times higher figure than in 2007. The trade surplus in transport and the trade surplus in travel services were higher in 2008, while the deficit in the group of other services narrowed, after increasing in 2006 and 2007. The trade surplus in transport services mainly went hand in hand with the movement of merchandise trade growth, and was the lowest in Q4 2008. The largest contributions to the annual increase in the trade surplus in transport services came from net exports of road and air transport services, while trade in rail and maritime transport recorded a deficit. The net inflow from travel services Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 21 Current Economic Trends Table 7: Balance of payments I-XII 2008, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-XII 2007 Current account 27,611.0 29,790.6 -2,179.6 -1,454.9 - Trade balance (FOB) 20,278.4 22,939.9 -2,661.5 -1,665.9 - Services 5,064.1 3,361.6 1,702.5 1,193.2 - Income 1,272.8 2,281.2 -1,008.4 -708.5 Current transfers 995.8 1,208.0 -212.2 -273.7 Capital and financial account 4,385.9 -2,114.4 2,271.4 1,712.7 - Capital account 277.5 -370.2 -92.7 -51.9 - Capital transfers 274.5 -361.2 -86.8 -50.5 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 3.0 -9.0 -5.9 -1.4 - Financial account 4,108.4 -1,744.2 2,364.1 1,764.6 - Direct investment 1,234.7 -977.6 257.1 -268.7 - Portfolio investment 634.8 -28.3 606.4 -2,264.5 - Financial derivates 0.0 5.7 5.7 -21.3 - Other investment 2,217.9 -744.0 1,473.9 4,179.5 - Assets 17.3 -728.6 -711.3 -4,877.1 - Liabilities 2,200.6 -15.4 2,185.2 9,056.6 -Reserve assets 21.0 0.0 21.0 139.6 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -91.8 -91.8 -257.8 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. increased further in 2008, particularly in the second half of the year, given that revenue growth (12.7%), which was also underpinned by higher prices in the groups of accommodation and hotels and restaurants, was much faster than growth of expenditure on travel (4.1%). The trade deficit in the group of other services declined chiefly on account of higher net exports of construction and merchanting services. The factor income deficit was rising in 2008, mainly due to higher net interest payments to the rest of the world, and reached EUR 1008.4 m, up EUR 299.9 m from the year before. Net interest payments on foreign loans were the main driver of factor income deficit growth for the second year in a row. Interest receipts from loans to the rest of the world increased, but payments of interest on foreign loans were even higher, given the stronger borrowing and the gradual interest rate increase in the period to November 2008. Payments of domestic commercial banks still accounted for the largest share in the structure of all net payments of interest on foreign loans. Owing to higher remittances abroad, the labour income balance recorded a deficit of EUR 14.4 m in 2008 (compared with the surplus of EUR 77.9 in 2007). The deficit in current transfers was at EUR 212.2 m in 2008, down EUR 61.5 m from 2007. The general government deficit was highest in the first half of the year, increasing by EUR 37.1 m to EUR 259.4 m in the year as a whole. The bulk of the general government deficit came from higher net payments of taxes and contributions to the rest of the world. In 2008, Slovenia's state budget recorded a net deficit against the EU budget for the second year in a row (EUR 64.7 m). Slovenia's receipts from the EU budget totalled EUR 363.2 m (46.4% of planned funds), while its payments amounted to EUR 427.9 m (114.0% of the foreseen Slovenia's liabilities to the EU). In 2008, the current transfers of other sectors recorded a surplus in Figure 29: Financial transactions of the balance of payments I Direct investment I Financial derivatives - Net financial flow Portfolio investment I Other investment Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 22 Current Economic Trends insurance premiums and other transfers, compared with the deficit posted in 2007. International financial transactions (excluding international reserves) reached a net capital inflow of EUR 2,343.1 m in 2008 (EUR 1,625.0 m in 2007). The higher net capital inflow was mainly due to the net inflow from portfolio investment and direct investment, while the net inflow from other investment declined. In Q1 2008, the net capital inflow was posted by the general government, in Q2 by the private sector, and in Q3 and Q4 by the private sector and the BS. In 2008, a net capital inflow from direct investment was recorded for the first time since 2004 (EUR 257.1 m). Slovenia's direct investment abroad declined last year, compared with the year before, and its structure changed. Investment in equity capital remained at the 2007 level, while financing of affiliated enterprises abroad declined. In terms of structure, equity capital accounted for two-thirds in 2008 (around one half in 2007). Liabilities to affiliated enterprises, which increased by EUR 329.8 m compared with the year before, constituted the bulk of the inflow from direct foreign investment in 2008. Foreign investment enterprises used more debt capital as a source of financing than other enterprises. The net capital inflow from portfolio investment reached EUR 606.4 m in 2008, in contrast to the high net outflow of EUR 2,264.5 m recorded in 2007.8 After still increasing in the first half of 2008, claims from portfolio investment declined in the second half of the year, given that domestic commercial banks and other sectors were selling foreign bonds and notes and money market instruments. The BS was increasingly selling money market instruments in 2008, particularly in Q4, while simultaneously increasing deposits. From Q2 onwards, the government was mainly reducing its debt, following the net capital inflow in Q1 due to the issue of the government bond. The net capital inflow from other investment achieved EUR 1,473.9 m in 2008 (EUR 4,179.5 m in 2007). On the side of claims, the volume of short-term trade credits was gradually declining after the first quarter, which corresponded to the dynamics of merchandise export growth. Long-term financing of the rest of the world with domestic commercial bank loans, which declined particularly in the second half of the year, reached EUR 534.6 m in 2008 (EUR 1,074.4 m in 2007). The rest of the world made net repayments of short-term loans to Slovenian banks (EUR 86.1 m); the repaid short-term debt thus exceeded the given short-term loans. Claims from currency and deposits were modest in 2008 (EUR 13.4 m). Within the liabilities to the rest of the world, the dynamics of short-term trade credits were similar to the dynamics 8 The high net outflow was recorded due to maturing bills and a long-term deposit of commercial bank investment in bonds and notes and money market instruments of the euro area, which exceeded the inflow from securities. of short-term trade credits on the side of claims. Liabilities from short-term credits in 2008 were much lower (EUR 169.9 m) than in 2007 (EUR 505.3 m). Loans raised by domestic commercial banks in the rest of the world and deposits by non-residents, which were still increasing in the first half of the year, moderated in the second half of 2008, largely due to the repayment of short-term loans and limited access to foreign sources. Domestic commercial banks thus borrowed EUR 1,227.3 m abroad, considerably less than in 2007 (EUR 3,354.5 m). Slovenia's gross external debt, which started to decline in the last two months of the year, totalled EUR 39 bn, and Slovenia's gross external assets in debt instruments EUR 29.6 bn at the end of2008. Compared with 2007, Slovenia's gross external debt increased by 12.2% and gross external assets in debt instruments by 3.5%. Net external debt amounted to EUR 9.4 bn at the end of 2008 (25.2% of the estimated GDP) and EUR 6.2 bn in 2007 (18.0% in 2007). Financial markets The lending activity of banks was also modest in December 2008. The bulk of domestic non-banking sector loans came from household borrowing, while in November, households made net repayments of loans. Corporate and NFI borrowing also strengthened somewhat due to decreased net repayment of foreign loans. In the last month of 2008, the government repaid loans raised with domestic banks. Banks still obtained a large part of the necessary funds to increase liquidity from household deposits, though on account of lower Christmas bonuses and 13th month payments their December growth was more modest than in previous years. For the second successive year, banks made net repayments of foreign loans, in the amount of EUR 96.7 m, which is notably less than a month before, while net repayments in November and December combined totalled as much as EUR 680.2 m. After the stagnation in November, the volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors recorded 0.2% growth in December. Growth of euro loans (0.2%) was at its lowest since the adoption of the euro. After a sharp decline in the month before, the volume of foreign currency loans strengthened by 0.1% (despite the appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro), which is a consequence of foreign currency borrowing of households. The y-o-y growth rate of the volume of loans dropped for the eleventh month in a row, reaching 18.1%, the lowest figure in the last two and a half years. In December, banks recorded net lending to domestic non-banking sectors in the amount of EUR 63.5 m, which is slightly over 15% of the monthly average of 2007. The 2008 total net inflow of loans was at EUR 4.836.6 m, just over a quarter less than the year before. The lending activity was slowing in EMU as a whole. In 2008, the y-o-y growth rate of loans more than halved Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 23 Current Economic Trends Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 2007 31. XII 2008 31. XII 2008/ 30. XI 2008 31. XII 2008/ 31. XII 2007 31. XII 2007/ 31. XII 2006 Loans total 26,715.5 31,552.1 0.2 18.1 32.3 Enterprises and NFI 19,378.7 23,138.9 0.1 19.4 36.9 Government 519.2 584.6 -2.0 12.6 -20.7 Households 6,817.7 7,828.6 0.6 14.8 26.7 Consumer credits 2,742.5 2,883.9 -0.2 5.2 19.9 Lending for house purchase 2,667.9 3,395.3 1.8 27.3 36.4 Other lending 1,407.3 1,549.3 -0.5 10.1 23.6 Bank deposits total 12,541.8 13,690.0 1.4 9.2 9.5 Overnight deposits 5,387.7 5,235.1 -1.3 -2.8 -2.5 Short-term deposits 5,112.4 5,644.7 2.3 10.4 15.3 Long-term deposits 1,286.0 1,972.9 8.2 53.4 11.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 755.6 837.2 -2.7 10.8 122.8 Mutual funds1 2,924.4 1,501.7 -0.8 -42.7 22.5 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: 1Data for mutual funds refer to January. a significant share. The y-o-y growth rate of the total volume of household loans otherwise strengthened somewhat at the end of the year,9 but was nevertheless nearly 12 p.p. lower than at the end of 2007. A breakdown by purpose shows a decline in the growth rates for all types of loans, most notably consumer loans and loans for other purposes, which recorded the lowest figures since comparable data have been available.10 Household net borrowing from domestic banks thus totalled EUR 1,010.9 m in the previous year, almost 30% less than in 2007. The decline is a result of a more than two-thirds lower volume of consumer loans and a one-half lower volume of loans for other purposes, which were also most likely an important source of financing the purchase of securities in previous years. Despite the notable slowdown in the number of the real estate market transactions, net borrowing in the form of housing loans, which accounted for almost three-quarters of household loans, strengthened by 2%. Enterprises and NFI increased net borrowing somewhat in December (EUR 31.5 m), but it nevertheless lagged considerably behind the average monthly level of 2008. This slight increase is only a consequence of somewhat lower net repayment of foreign currency loans, given that net borrowing in the form of euro loans declined somewhat further compared with November. While NFI recorded increased borrowing in previous months, they repaid their loans in December in the net amount of EUR 28.1 m. In terms of structure by purpose, investment loans recorded the largest increase (0.7%), which may be attributed to the drawing of credit lines concluded in the past; this increase was considerably below the level 9 As a consequence of last year's net repayment of loans raised for the purchase of NKBM shares. 10 Since 2005. relative to the year before, to 5.3%, hitting its four-year low. The slowdown is thus attributable to weaker growth in household loans (only 1.5% growth compared with 5.9% in 2007), as well as weaker growth in the volume of corporate and NFI loans, which rose by 9.5% last year (15.4% in 2007). In December, household borrowing was mainly underpinned by housing loans. Their growth lagged only slightly behind the average in 2008. In contrast, households made net repayments of consumer loans and loans for other purposes for the second month in a row. In the currency structure, foreign currency loans again accounted for Figure 30: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors I Households (left axis) I Government (left axis) - Enterprises and NFI (right axis) Enterprises and NFI (left axis) ' Households (right axis) Total (right axis) co co co co co co o\ Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 24 Current Economic Trends recorded in the first ten months of 2008. The volume of working capital loans, in contrast, stagnated, while enterprises and NFI recorded net repayment of loans for other purposes for the second month in a row. Due to the tightening conditions on financial markets, enterprises and NFI cut the volume of net loans raised with domestic banks by more than a quarter. Reaching EUR 3,760.3 m, these loans accounted for more than three-quarters of total net borrowing of domestic non-banking sectors (80% in 2007). Net borrowing in the form of working capital loans recorded the largest decline, by 40%; the volume of investment loans declined by slightly over one fifth, which is a consequence of a very high volume of this type of loans over the last months of 2007. Despite the tightened conditions on international financial markets, enterprises and NFI took out more foreign loans than in the year before, which is most likely linked to the increasing gap between foreign and domestic interest rates for corporate loans. In the last two months of 2008 alone, when the situation was at its worst, their net borrowing amounted to EUR 148.5 m, while the net flow of borrowing abroad in the year as whole reached EUR 642 m, which is up more than a fifth from 2007 and the second highest figure in the last five years (EUR 735.9 m in 2006). Figure 31: Net borrowing of enterprises abroad and differences between interest rates ^^B Loans (left axis) -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates * (right axis) 120 180 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 M I > 1 I 150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 CO CO CO CO CO CO CPi Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Note: *positive values mean higher domestic interest rates. Amid the increasingly tighter conditions on international interbank markets, banks made net repayments of loans raised in the rest of the world in December for the second successive month. In contrast to November, banks repaid long-term loans in a net amount of EUR 231.2 m, which is the highest value to date; however, they raised short-term loans in the amount of EUR 134.5 m. Bank borrowing abroad thus dropped by almost two-thirds in 2008, to EUR 1,227.3 m. The net flow of long-term loans recorded an almost 55% decline; the net flow of short-term loans declined by more than three-quarters. The maturity structure thus improved somewhat in 2008, given that long-term loans accounted for over 75% of all net flows of foreign loans (60% last year). However, this improvement is primarily a result of the fact that a sizable part of short-term loans raised in 2008 fell due in the same year. Figure 32: Net flows of bank borrowing abroad ■ Long-term loans ■ Short-term loans Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The volume of household deposits in banks recorded 1.4% growth in December, the highest figure in 2008. In December, growth was also impacted by seasonal factors (disbursement of Christmas bonuses and 13th month payments), which were according to our estimate, much more limited due to the increasingly worse situation in the economy, given that December's growth was at its lowest since comparable data have been available.11 Following two months of relatively modest growth, which otherwise exceeded 2%, the volume of long-term deposits strengthened significantly again in December, which allowed banks to compensate for the decrease in the volume of the available assets on international interbank markets. The increase in the volume of short-term deposits was also somewhat higher than in previous months, while the volume of deposits redeemable at notice and the volume of overnight deposits dropped for the third month in a row. Net inflows of household deposits to banks totalled EUR 1,148.2 m in 2008, just over 5% more than in the year before, but a significant part of net inflows also came from capital markets.12 In the previous year, government deposits gained importance as a source of financing, recording net inflows of EUR 382.2 m, over a third more than in 2007. In January, the volume of assets in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded a net outflow for the fifth month in a row; January's outflow was the lowest in this period (EUR 5.8 m). The decline in the volume of managed 11 Since 2005. 12 In this period, net outflows of over EUR 300 m were posted by the mutual funds managed by domestic administrators alone. -40 -60 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 25 Current Economic Trends Figure 33: December's net flows of household deposits in banks and monthly growth rates in 2005-2008 2005 2006 2007* 2008 Source of data: BS; calculations by IMAD, *remarkable 2007 net inflows are also a result of the return of overpayments related to the purchase of NKBM shares. assets, which was down 0.8% from the end of 2008, was also much smaller than in previous months. Approximately half of this decline came from net outflows, while the other half was linked to the negative situation on capital markets, which softened somewhat in January, given that indices on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange increased for the first time in the past twelve months. The values of indices on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange mainly increased in January, but the liquidity of the Slovenian capital market nevertheless remained very low. The total January turnover thus posted a mere EUR 36.4 m, just slightly over a third of the average monthly value on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange in 2008, hitting its three and a half year low. Trading in shares dropped in relative terms, by the same percentage as trading in bonds. The market capitalisation on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange picked up by 2.7% in the first month of this year, with a large contribution (1.7%) coming from 4% growth of the market capitalisation of bonds. After the strengthening in January, the main index of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange was generally falling again in February, losing 5.7 of its value, which is somewhat less than the average on developed capital markets, where in February, the value of MSCI World, measured in euros, recorded a 9.7 decline. In 2009, general government revenue is being created in a deteriorated macroeconomic environment and the amended tax legislation entered into force in its entirety. Payroll tax was finally abolished and the corporate income tax rate was reduced from 22% to 21%. Investment relief also changed. The government also decided to increase excise duties on liquid fuels for transport and heating, alcohol and cigarettes. January saw a further slowdown of growth in general government revenue, which was already pronounced in November and December 2008, when growth of revenues from all categories of taxes and contributions slowed as a result of the cooling business cycle. In January, revenue from excise duties recorded the fastest increase (16%) compared with the same month last year; its growth was already boosted by the December and January increases in excise duties on liquid fuels for transport and heating. Favourable growth was also recorded by revenue from tax on wages and salaries, specifically revenue from personal income tax (12.9%) and social security contributions (9.5%). Advance payments of corporate income tax are declining from month to month, due to the changed method of their determination, and were 9.6% higher in January than in the comparable period last year. Revenue from value added tax dropped by almost 18% in January, which, with the time-lag in the payment of the tax, already shows signs of reduced economic activity. Figure 34: Taxes and social security contributions -Taxes on income and profit -Social security contributions -----Domestic taxes on goods and services -----Other taxes 100 0 I^I^I^I^COCOCOCO OOOOOOOO by gvb yg v eauoeauo "-S AT I BE FR" •EU-27 HU ES K • CZ 0.0 05 10 1.5 2.0 2.5 Business sector expenditure for R&D, % of GDP Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. was developed by the EPO in 2005, using its collection and knowledge of patent data. Data on the number of patent applications to the EPO are thus published by the first year of filing the patent application anywhere in the world (which is the date closest to the date of invention).18 The basic contents of the patent data based on the first application are thus information on a country's inventive capacity; these data are also internationally comparable. For patent applications to the EPO, all direct applications are taken into account, but among the PCT applications (applications following the procedure laid down by the international Patent Cooperation Treaty - PCT) filed at the EPO, only those that have entered into the regional phase are counted.19 Data on the number of patent applications filed at the EPO by priority year are based on the nationality of the applicant/inventor. Before 2007, Eurostat published data on the number of EPO filings in the current year. These data are still available in the annual reports of the patent offices (e.g. the Slovenian Intellectual Property Office, EPO); these applications do not necessarily have to be the first applications, as the main purpose of annual reports is fulfilment of administrative tasks related to budgetary planning.20 18 The first application is the priority patent application at a global level filed at any patent office for legal protection of the invention. After that date, the patent office begins "searching and examining" the filed patent application to check whether the invention fulfils the obligatory criteria and to decide whether the patent will be granted or not in the final phase (Guellec, van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 2007, p. 5). 19 In terms of the legal procedure, there are essential differences between both patent systems (for more see Guellec, van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 2007 and PCT Distance Learning Course - Introduction to the Patent Cooperation Treaty, 2009). 20 Annual Report 2007. (2008). Munich: EPO. = ! UK E sI Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 32 Selected Topics Table 10: Patent applications to the EPO by priority year, per million inhabitants 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Growth (20002004), % 20051 EU-27 106.1 104.7 103.3 105.1 110.5 1.0 105.7 Austria 147.0 148.5 156.7 161.8 173.0 4.1 183.1 Belgium 126.1 115.9 122.7 124.2 141.2 2.9 129.1 Bulgaria 0.9 2.0 1.9 2.7 2.4 27.6 1.4 Cyprus 10.4 22.6 7.9 9.4 8.2 -5.8 17.0 Czech Republic 6.5 7.0 8.6 11.3 10.9 13.8 7.3 Denmark 175.9 166.9 171.0 186.1 185.4 1.3 174.6 Estonia 4.1 7.1 4.2 7.9 6.4 12.1 5.6 Finland 270.1 263.5 238.9 240.5 261.9 -0.8 267.6 France 119.9 118.7 118.5 125.9 132.4 2.5 119.2 Greece 5.0 6.5 6.7 7.9 5.9 4.3 6.5 Irland 57.7 63.5 55.7 55.4 64.2 2.7 64.1 Italy 70.0 69.4 72.7 74.9 78.6 2.9 76.1 Latvia 3.1 2.0 2.7 3.6 4.2 8.3 5.7 Lithuania 1.3 0.9 0.8 3.8 4.0 31.4 1.3 Luxembourg 182.7 169.7 135.9 197.4 248.8 8.0 194.9 Hungary 11.8 9.5 11.8 12.4 15.1 6.3 7.8 Malta 11.8 13.9 10.1 13.4 11.3 -1.3 21.6 Netherlands 215.9 240.5 211.1 210.5 220.5 0.5 173.3 Germany 268.2 264.2 259.7 261.7 274.1 0.5 275.0 Poland 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.9 3.1 28.7 3.0 Portugal 4.1 3.9 3.6 5.9 5.4 6.7 7.4 Romania 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 36.3 0.7 Slovakia 2.1 2.3 4.3 5.7 3.6 15.0 5.8 Slovenia 25.5 24.1 37.7 38.2 55.0 21.2 32.2 Spain 19.8 21.3 22.6 22.2 28.2 9.3 29.3 Sweden 256.5 234.4 221.9 217.9 242.7 -1.4 184.8 United Kingdom 100.8 93.7 91.5 89.9 89.1 -3.1 91.4 Source: Science and technology: Patent statistics - Eurostat, 2009. Note: 1 estimated data on the number of direct applications to the EPO The second change pertains to the availability of data that are now published with a longer time delay; data for the last year (2005) are estimates. Data on patent applications have been criticised as outdated, and for good reasons. These data are always conditional on legal procedures, which in the case of patent applications to the EPO always take several years. The patent application is normally published and its contents become public within 18 months from the day when the first application was filed at the EPO (direct applications). The methodology of nowcasting of patent statistics is built on the assumption that the number of direct EPO filings in 2005 can be estimated on the basis of the relationship between direct applications to the EPO and PTC applications in the regional phase in the period 2001-2004. The estimated data are only informative and the final data are usually revised upward. In addition, an ex-post revision of data is made at any extraction of new (raw) data from the EPO database. At IMAD, we therefore comment on the final data on patent applications filed at the EPO, which is also consistent with the latest OECD studies on nowcasting of patent statistics,21 which indicates the difficulties in estimating both the level as well as the growth in the number of patent applications, particularly in countries where the level of patentability is low. The number of Slovenian patent applications filed with the EuropeanPatent Office isincreasing fromyeartoyear.In2004, Slovenia filed, at the EPO, 55 first patent applications per million inhabitants, reaching 13th place among the EU-27 countries. Based on estimates, it occupied the same place 21 Dernis, H. (2007). Nowcasting Patent Indicators. STI Working Paper 2007/3. Paris: OECD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 Selected Topics 33 in 2005, but with a lower number of patent applications (see table). It was ranked above all new members, but also above certain old Member States (Spain, Portugal and Greece), which allocate a considerably smaller share of GDP to research and development than Slovenia (2004: 1.4%). Slovenia was rapidly increasing the number of the first patent applications at the EPO in 2000-2004, which also contributed to the narrowing of Slovenia's gap behind the European average. According to OECD studies, there is a strong positive correlation between the number of triadic patents22 and business sector R&D expenditures.23 22 Patent families, consisting of patent applications, filed at the EPO and Japanese Patent Office (JPO), and patents granted by the USPTO (OECD Patent Statistics Manual, OECD, 2009). 23 Compendium of patent statistics, 2008. statistical appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 37 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Revised Autumn forecast 2008 estimate forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 2.8 4.3 4.3 5.9 6.8 4.1 1.1 3.1 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 25,752 27,162 28,704 31,013 34,471 37,403 38,905 41,435 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 12,900 13,599 14,346 15,446 17,076 18,464 19,151 20,345 GDP per capita (PPS)1 17,000 18,400 19,500 20,700 22,000 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 82 85 87 88 89 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current exchange rate) 25,553 26,848 28,460 30,645 33,792 36,432 37,895 40,379 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current exchange rate) 25,583 26,803 28,316 30,429 33,531 36,135 37,602 40,253 Rate of registered unemployment 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 7.7 8.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.6 5.2 5.4 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.2 4.0 4.5 4.2 3.7 1.3 2.5 2.8 Inflation,2 year average 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 1.1 3.0 Inflation,2 end of the year 4.6 3.2 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.2 3.0 3.0 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 3.1 12.4 10.6 12.5 13.8 5.8 1.5 4.8 Exports of goods 4.4 12.8 10.3 13.4 13.1 3.2 1.3 4.1 Exports of services -2.5 10.9 12.0 8.6 17.0 17.6 2.4 7.5 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 6.7 13.3 6.6 12.2 15.7 6.5 0.5 5.3 Imports of goods 7.3 14.6 6.8 12.7 15.1 6.0 0.1 5.3 Imports of services 2.8 5.6 5.5 8.8 19.7 10.4 3.1 5.5 Current account balance, in EUR million -196 -720 -498 -771 -1,455 -2,266 -1,630 -1,717 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.8 -2.6 -1.7 -2.5 -4.2 -6.1 -4.2 -4.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 13,225 15,343 20,508 24,034 34,358 38,9974 - - As a per cent share relative to GDP 51.4 56.5 71.4 77.5 99.7 - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.128 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.460 1.270 1.270 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.3 2.7 2.6 2.9 5.0 3.4 2.8 3.8 As a % of GDP* 56.0 55.0 54.4 53.0 52.2 52.6 52.5 52.7 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.2 3.4 3.3 4.1 2.5 3.9 2.2 2.6 As a % of GDP* 19.0 18.9 19.0 18.8 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.2 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 8.1 5.6 3.8 10.4 11.9 7.0 -2.0 5.0 As a % of GDP* 24.0 24.9 25.3 26.3 27.5 28.0 26.5 26.8 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos, estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4End December 2008; *Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 38 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry, total 6.1 6.2 -1.5 8.4 6.9 5.9 3.8 1.6 3.4 -0.9 -10.0 7.6 8.9 8.5 12.7 C Mining and quarrying 10.4 3.6 -1.6 9.4 13.3 0.7 -6.7 9.8 -5.2 -6.9 -3.6 -14.8 10.2 34.3 23.5 D Manufacturing 6.5 7.5 -1.7 9.7 8.1 6.8 5.7 1.7 3.6 -0.6 -11.0 9.1 10.6 9.3 14.0 E Electricity, gas & water supply1 -0.9 -11.1 1.1 -8.1 -14.9 -5.0 -15.9 -3.3 7.1 -2.1 3.5 0.2 -11.9 -13.0 -10.9 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.3 18.4 15.1 35.5 31.5 16.7 2.8 32.5 16.5 16.6 1.9 37.4 30.9 38.1 34.7 Buildings 14.0 15.7 10.9 22.6 31.5 9.9 5.6 37.2 7.9 12.4 -4.8 27.8 12.7 27.6 26.8 Civil engineering 16.8 24.9 18.3 67.0 35.2 26.1 2.4 28.3 23.0 19.6 7.0 64.1 75.0 63.1 49.7 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 9.8 13.4 - 7.0 0.1 30.2 19.1 26.7 23.5 7.7 - - - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 3.9 6.8 - 14.9 12.1 5.8 -3.7 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 - - - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 6.3 9.7 10.1 6.0 8.3 12.3 11.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 1.9 6.0 9.5 8.9 Real turnover in retail trade 1.6 5.5 5.1 6.4 3.8 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.7 6.2 3.0 3.5 2.4 12.3 6.0 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and in retail sale of automotive fuel 11.7 14.2 15.6 5.6 13.0 19.6 18.2 26.5 21.1 15.3 2.0 0.3 9.6 6.8 11.9 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 10.5 16.1 17.4 19.7 15.0 15.1 15.2 20.7 24.2 21.5 5.3 19.6 19.0 20.2 21.7 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 2.0 7.0 1.8 4.8 10.1 6.8 5.5 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 1.7 7.2 5.4 19.7 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 1.9 4.9 5.2 0.5 13.7 2.3 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 -8.4 5.4 2.3 23.4 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.0 8.4 -0.5 9.0 7.9 9.8 5.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 8.9 9.8 8.4 17.6 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.1 0.4 -4.1 -1.4 -0.5 2.3 0.9 -2.7 -2.8 -4.9 -5.9 -3.1 -2.0 0.5 -0.8 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 106.7 492.2 529.9 101.3 109.7 120.8 160.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 32.2 31.1 37.9 37.5 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 10 13 2 15 15 13 11 10 8 4 -14 15 16 14 15 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 10 12 -5 13 13 12 11 8 1 -8 -21 12 14 12 13 - in construction 4 17 3 19 21 15 13 15 10 3 -16 14 21 22 20 - in services 26 29 22 30 29 30 27 29 26 26 8 31 29 29 30 - in retail trade 22 27 23 24 26 29 29 29 28 27 6 21 26 24 26 Consumer confidence indicator -14 -11 -20 -8 -8 -10 -17 -19 -16 -17 -28 -8 -8 -8 -10 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 39 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3.2 5.4 8.7 8.0 1.5 10.0 1.6 -0.7 0.5 7.9 -2.9 9.1 -0.8 2.4 -2.0 -6.9 5.5 -2.8 -13.9 -14.3 - - 8.8 8.3 -5.8 18.9 -9.7 -2.0 -4.6 -15.2 18.8 14.5 0.0 4.3 -13.0 -7.1 13.5 -32.2 4.1 -3.1 -16.9 15.3 - - 4.3 6.9 10.0 8.4 2.5 11.8 3.0 1.7 0.6 8.2 -3.0 9.4 -0.6 2.2 -2.4 -5.9 5.7 -2.9 -14.8 -16.7 - - -16.1 -17.4 -5.1 -1.7 -8.2 -10.9 -14.3 -21.5 -7.2 0.3 -2.2 7.1 3.1 11.1 -0.7 -6.6 0.9 0.0 3.7 6.6 - - 48.6 17.4 20.0 31.6 4.1 10.0 7.4 -11.8 38.8 41.3 21.2 23.1 13.6 14.0 18.5 10.4 20.8 10.7 -3.6 -4.1 - - 55.1 17.3 21.1 17.3 -5.4 1.9 19.7 -4.1 55.0 43.6 19.1 11.8 4.8 7.9 1.9 14.7 20.9 6.6 -13.2 -7.9 - - 45.2 17.4 19.3 52.7 13.5 16.1 -0.1 -18.0 23.8 39.2 23.0 32.0 20.0 18.8 31.7 7.3 20.7 13.1 4.5 -0.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9.5 6.5 10.6 12.9 13.4 16.8 11.7 7.0 18.1 23.8 7.2 17.4 11.8 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 - - 4.5 1.2 4.7 4.7 7.9 9.4 4.5 4.3 6.4 14.9 -1.8 8.2 4.8 4.1 7.6 2.8 7.9 4.0 3.4 1.7 - - 14.8 12.3 17.1 22.6 19.3 24.4 19.2 10.5 31.4 33.4 17.0 27.4 19.2 17.1 18.1 9.3 18.2 2.2 -0.7 4.8 - - 15.5 8.4 19.6 12.7 13.2 19.5 19.2 7.5 21.6 30.1 12.3 32.0 21.0 19.7 23.4 11.8 28.6 12.1 2.8 0.9 - - 7.6 6.0 6.0 9.6 3.6 4.6 8.3 4.0 2.9 9.0 0.5 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 0.8 - 8.6 12.0 0.9 7.2 -3.7 4.2 2.6 9.6 12.1 11.7 -8.5 8.5 10.5 -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 5.0 - 7.0 2.1 9.8 11.0 7.8 4.8 13.7 -0.9 -2.6 5.6 8.9 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -2.0 - -2.0 1.2 0.5 4.7 1.7 1.3 0.1 1.1 -3.4 2.6 -6.7 -3.1 1.7 -6.6 -4.7 -5.6 -4.4 -3.2 -5.7 -8.4 - - 38.4 33.8 38.3 41.8 40.7 46.2 53.1 61.0 38.5 39.3 40.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 - - 16 14 15 13 11 10 10 12 10 10 11 10 8 5 5 4 3 -3 -17 -22 -27 -28 14 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 7 6 4 1 -3 -5 -8 -11 -16 -22 -25 -29 -30 21 21 17 16 11 12 10 18 14 13 17 12 10 7 6 0 2 -4 -16 -29 -36 -39 28 30 32 30 28 30 25 27 28 29 29 27 26 25 25 27 25 22 7 -4 -8 -16 26 26 26 28 33 28 29 30 28 29 30 29 29 27 29 26 25 25 0 -6 -8 -9 -4 -9 -6 -9 -16 -17 -19 -16 -23 -20 -15 -12 -18 -19 -19 -20 -12 -17 -33 -35 -44 -38 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 40 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 910.7 925.3 942.5 919.1 923.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 940.9 942.2 949.2 918.0 919.2 920.0 921.6 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (C+D)1 824.8 854.0 879.3 841.8 852.7 856.1 865.4 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 838.0 841.5 845.8 849.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.9 41.6 41.0 43.1 42.0 41.0 40.3 41.9 41.2 40.6 40.2 43.0 43.1 43.1 41.9 In industry, construction 313.3 322.9 330.6 317.4 322.2 324.8 327.3 327.3 331.5 333.2 330.5 316.2 317.8 318.3 320.5 Of which: in manufacturing 227.9 229.9 228.6 229.4 230.2 229.6 230.4 230.0 230.2 228.6 225.5 228.9 229.6 229.7 230.0 in construction 69.9 77.8 87.0 72.8 76.8 80.0 81.7 82.2 86.2 89.5 90.0 72.1 73.0 73.3 75.3 In services 472.6 489.5 507.7 481.3 488.5 490.3 497.8 501.6 506.7 507.9 514.4 478.8 480.7 484.4 486.6 Of which: in public administration 50.2 50.1 50.7 49.7 50.1 50.2 50.3 50.6 50.7 50.9 50.8 49.8 49.7 49.7 49.9 in education, health-services, social work 109.1 110.0 111.9 109.9 110.2 109.3 110.6 111.3 111.9 111.1 113.3 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.4 FORMALLY EMPLOYED1 741.6 766.0 789.9 753.1 764.7 768.6 777.8 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 749.5 752.9 757.0 761.3 In enterprises and organisations 675.1 696.1 717.6 685.8 695.0 697.5 706.2 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 682.8 685.6 689.0 692.4 By those self-employed 66.5 69.9 72.3 67.3 69.8 71.1 71.6 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 66.7 67.3 68.0 68.9 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS 83.3 87.9 89.4 88.7 87.9 87.6 87.6 89.6 89.2 88.9 89.8 88.5 88.6 88.8 87.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT 85.8 71.3 63.2 77.3 70.9 68.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 80.0 77.7 74.2 72.6 Female 47.0 39.1 33.4 42.0 39.3 38.0 37.3 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 43.2 42.1 40.7 40.2 By age: under 26 18.2 11.9 9.1 14.0 11.6 10.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 15.1 14.2 12.8 12.2 aged over 50 21.8 22.2 21.9 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.3 Unskilled 33.7 28.0 25.4 30.4 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.6 30.7 29.0 28.2 For more than 1 year 41.9 36.5 32.3 38.8 36.7 35.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 39.6 39.0 37.9 37.4 Those receiving benefits 22.7 16.6 14.4 19.1 16.8 15.8 14.7 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 19.9 19.1 18.3 17.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.4 7.7 6.7 8.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.9 Male 7.7 6.2 5.6 6.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.3 Female 11.5 9.6 8.1 10.3 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 10.6 10.3 10.0 9.8 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.2 21.5 13.7 8.7 5.4 0.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 6.7 1.2 0.8 1.6 New unemployed first-job seekers 18.6 14.7 12.5 2.9 2.4 2.3 7.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 Redundancies 63.8 52.5 53.0 15.4 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 7.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.4 49.1 41.7 14.8 12.1 11.3 10.9 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 5.1 4.4 5.2 4.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 39.2 28.0 26.1 7.6 6.9 6.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 2.0 2.5 3.1 2.4 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 7.8 15.3 24.6 3.9 4.9 4.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 7.0 2.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.6 Retirements2 20.6 20.7 22.5 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 Deaths2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 36.7 37.9 22.5 14.3 9.1 4.5 9.9 8.8 3.3 4.5 6.0 9.1 3.5 1.8 0.8 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 19.0 20.2 20.0 20.5 21.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 20.0 17.8 23.6 20.6 For a fixed term, in % 75.3 76.5 74.5 76.7 77.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 77.1 75.1 77.5 76.9 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 48.3 60.2 81.1 52.6 59.3 63.0 65.8 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 51.0 52.2 54.7 58.3 As % of labour force 5.3 6.5 8.6 5.7 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.3 NEW JOBS 155.9 160.0 162.7 39.1 40.7 38.7 41.5 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 13.5 11.6 13.9 14.4 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 41 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 923.6 925.4 924.5 923.1 926.0 934.0 935.8 932.8 936.6 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 852.9 856.2 854.4 854.6 859.4 864.5 867.4 864.4 867.3 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 42.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.4 40.3 40.2 41.8 41.9 42.1 41.2 41.2 41.2 40.6 40.6 40.7 40.3 40.2 40.1 322.3 323.9 324.3 324.4 325.7 327.7 328.4 325.7 326.0 327.1 328.8 330.3 331.4 332.8 332.7 332.7 334.1 333.9 331.6 326.1 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 229.8 229.9 230.4 230.3 230.1 230.2 229.0 228.5 228.5 227.6 226.1 222.7 76.8 78.3 79.1 79.9 80.9 81.8 82.4 80.9 81.2 82.2 83.3 84.8 86.2 87.5 88.7 89.2 90.6 91.2 90.4 88.5 488.6 490.3 489.1 489.2 492.7 496.4 498.7 498.5 499.6 502.0 503.4 505.2 507.0 508.0 506.5 506.6 510.6 513.9 515.1 514.1 50.1 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.7 50.5 50.6 50.7 50.9 50.7 50.8 51.0 50.9 50.8 50.6 110.1 110.2 109.0 108.7 110.1 110.6 110.8 110.5 110.9 111.4 111.5 111.7 112.0 111.9 110.6 110.4 112.3 113.0 113.4 113.5 764.9 768.1 767.0 767.1 771.6 777.0 779.7 776.7 777.9 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 695.1 697.5 696.2 696.1 700.1 705.2 707.7 705.9 707.8 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 69.8 70.6 70.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 72.0 70.8 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 88.0 88.1 87.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.7 87.7 89.4 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 70.7 69.3 70.1 68.5 66.7 69.5 68.4 68.4 69.2 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 39.2 38.5 39.3 38.1 36.7 38.0 37.1 36.7 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 11.5 11.1 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 22.3 22.0 22.2 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 36.8 36.0 35.8 35.6 35.0 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.7 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 16.9 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 9.6 9.4 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 2.0 1.8 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 8.0 1.8 -3.0 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.1 5.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 1.7 -0.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3 5.0 -0.7 -0.9 6.1 5.5 4.6 -0.3 7.1 1.7 0.1 -0.4 1.7 2.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.0 4.3 2.7 -1.1 19.3 23.1 18.8 19.7 22.8 24.4 18.7 14.2 22.4 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 79.1 76.6 78.4 77.1 76.5 76.4 75.2 69.8 71.9 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 60.1 59.5 61.7 63.3 63.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 65.8 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 13.4 13.0 11.8 9.9 16.9 18.2 13.6 9.7 14.5 13.0 13.4 15.4 13.1 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 42 Statistical Appendix WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.8 5.9 8.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.6 7.' 6.4 4.8 5.0 5.9 Private sector (A to K) 5.4 6.9 7.8 6.3 6.3 6.7 8.' 8.3 9.4 9.3 4.9 7.7 5.8 5.5 6.9 Agriculture, fishing (A, B) 5.6 8.2 8.6 6.2 8.0 7.3 ''.2 '0.' 8.8 '0.' 5.6 8.2 5.3 5.' 9.4 A Agriculture 5.6 8.2 8.8 6.4 8.0 7.3 ''.0 '0.2 8.8 '0.' 5.9 8.4 5.5 5.5 9.4 B Fishing 7.9 8.0 3.7 -3.8 8.2 8.2 '7.5 6.8 7.7 9.5 -4.9 3.3 -2.7 -''.4 9.9 Industry, construction (C to F) 5.5 6.5 7.5 5.7 5.8 6.3 8.' 8.0 9.5 9.2 4.0 7.5 5.' 4.5 6.7 C Mining and quarrying 4.5 7.0 '3.6 3.6 4.3 6.0 '3.4 '0.' '4.' '6.' '4.2 4.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 D Manufacturing 5.5 6.8 7.5 5.9 5.9 6.8 8.4 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.5 7.8 5.3 4.5 7.' E Electricity, gas & water supply 5.6 6.2 8.9 3.0 5.0 5.5 '0.7 9.0 9.4 9.3 8.' 4.6 2.8 '.6 4.2 F Construction 6.2 6.5 7.5 7.' 6.7 5.6 6.6 7.5 9.5 9.' 4.5 8.4 6.4 6.6 7.5 Production services (G to I) 5.0 7.0 7.9 7.3 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.9 8.9 9.2 6.2 8.0 6.7 7.' 7.4 G Distributive trades 5.6 7.6 7.7 8.0 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.4 9.0 8.8 6.' 9.' 6.7 8.3 8.6 H Hotels & restaurants 4.4 6.0 8.7 4.0 5.3 5.4 8.7 '0.' '0.3 '0.' 4.8 3.9 2.7 5.4 4.4 I Transport, storage & communications 3.6 5.7 7.9 6.7 4.4 5.6 5.9 7.7 7.9 9.4 6.8 6.9 7.9 5.3 5.4 Business services (J to K) 4.7 6.8 7.6 5.7 6.2 6.8 8.3 8.8 9.4 8.9 4.' 7.0 5.2 5.0 5.4 J Financial intermediation 7.2 7.3 5.8 7.9 7.8 5.7 7.4 8.' 8.8 8.2 -0.2 8.7 9.' 6.0 6.5 K Real estate 3.9 7.2 8.9 5.3 6.' 7.8 9.4 9.5 '0.' 9.6 6.7 6.8 4.0 5.' 5.6 Public services (L to O) 3.5 4.' 9.7 3.5 4.6 4.4 3.8 7.' 7.0 ''.7 '2.8 3.6 2.8 4.2 4.' L Public administration 3.' 5.' '2.2 2.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 11.1 '0.8 '3.2 '3.8 2.6 '.7 3.2 3.8 M Education 4.8 3.9 7.0 4.8 5.7 3.' 2.4 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 4.9 4.5 4.9 5.5 N Health & social work 2.7 3.2 '2.2 2.7 3.7 4.0 2.4 6.' 4.8 '6.7 20.6 3.2 '.9 3.0 3.2 O Other community, social & personal services 2.' 3.9 6.4 4.' 2.9 3.9 4.5 4.5 6.7 9.2 5.5 2.9 2.3 7.0 2.9 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,' nominal 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 '.2 '.2 0.4 0.7 '.0 0.9 0.8 Real (relative consumer prices) 0.7 2.3 2.8 '.4 '.8 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.' '.6 '.3 '.2 '.4 Real (relative producer prices)2 -0.8 2.' 0.9 2.' 2.0 2.2 2.' '.4 '.5 0.4 0.3 2.3 2.2 '.9 '.8 USD/EUR '.2557 '.3706 '.4706 '.3'05 '.3482 '.3745 '.4494 '.4998 '.5620 '.5038 '.3'68 '.2999 '.3074 '.3242 '.35'6 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: Data on the monthly gross wage per employee for 2004 and beyond calculated according to the new methodology were published in September 2005. 'Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's '7 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 43 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 5.8 5.2 6.9 5.7 4.9 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.1 9.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.4 5.5 7.6 6.8 5.6 8.2 8.4 7.6 6.9 9.4 8.5 10.7 8.2 9.5 10.1 7.2 10.7 7.7 1.0 6.7 8.6 6.0 8.5 8.8 4.6 8.4 15.1 9.5 8.5 15.2 6.8 9.4 8.9 8.1 12.7 6.3 11.4 9.2 -0.9 9.7 8.7 5.9 8.5 8.7 4.6 7.9 15.2 9.5 8.7 15.5 6.7 9.6 8.9 7.9 12.7 6.3 11.4 9.8 -0.8 9.8 5.3 9.5 8.6 12.4 3.5 30.6 13.0 10.0 2.5 4.4 14.0 -1.3 10.2 14.8 12.5 5.7 10.4 -11.5 -7.2 5.7 5.8 5.0 7.3 6.3 5.5 7.8 8.7 7.8 6.2 9.8 8.1 11.2 8.2 9.2 10.8 6.3 10.6 8.1 -1.1 5.9 4.7 4.8 6.6 3.9 7.5 9.5 10.2 21.6 5.9 10.4 14.1 12.3 17.7 12.3 17.5 10.2 20.5 38.5 -5.0 14.9 5.7 5.1 7.5 6.9 6.0 7.9 9.2 8.0 6.1 10.2 8.5 11.2 8.4 9.5 10.8 6.5 10.7 6.8 -1.1 5.5 3.0 7.7 3.5 5.2 7.7 11.1 11.2 9.6 8.1 10.8 8.3 12.1 8.5 7.7 14.1 6.9 7.4 20.9 1.9 4.9 8.1 4.5 8.5 5.3 3.1 6.7 7.4 5.6 7.3 8.6 6.6 11.9 7.3 9.5 9.9 6.0 11.4 7.4 -0.7 7.4 6.0 5.9 7.5 7.1 5.9 7.2 6.7 7.7 7.3 8.2 8.1 9.7 7.8 9.1 8.9 8.4 10.3 7.6 5.1 6.2 6.8 6.7 7.8 7.8 7.0 7.1 8.3 6.7 6.5 8.8 7.0 10.1 8.0 8.9 9.2 7.0 10.1 7.9 4.1 6.6 5.1 6.5 6.5 6.0 3.8 7.6 10.5 8.0 10.6 11.0 8.7 10.9 11.1 8.9 10.5 9.1 10.8 7.7 1.9 5.3 4.1 3.8 6.9 5.7 4.0 6.6 2.6 9.1 7.5 5.9 9.6 8.3 6.2 9.2 7.4 10.7 10.1 6.9 7.7 5.7 7.4 5.8 8.2 7.2 5.1 10.1 8.7 6.3 7.4 9.3 9.8 10.4 8.0 9.9 9.3 7.0 10.5 6.2 -0.6 7.7 9.9 7.0 8.5 7.1 1.6 13.9 8.0 1.0 6.7 6.7 10.7 12.0 6.6 7.9 6.9 6.5 11.1 0.9 -6.6 8.0 6.8 5.8 8.4 7.6 7.3 8.7 9.8 9.6 8.1 10.8 9.6 10.0 9.1 11.3 10.7 7.6 10.6 8.9 3.8 7.8 4.7 4.9 5.8 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.5 9.6 7.2 7.0 6.7 7.5 5.8 16.5 12.8 13.1 12.2 13.2 5.2 5.7 8.7 4.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.9 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.4 6.4 5.1 4.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 6.0 5.0 10.8 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 3.4 4.3 5.4 3.3 3.3 2.1 2.0 3.0 3.6 8.0 6.7 3.8 4.4 6.2 4.8 24.2 21.2 20.8 20.1 21.0 1.9 3.9 4.5 3.1 4.0 3.0 5.1 5.3 5.0 6.9 1.8 5.9 6.7 7.3 6.0 11.1 10.5 12.1 -3.2 9.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 2.0 1.3511 1.3419 1.3716 1.3622 1.3896 1.4227 1.4684 1.4570 1.4718 1.4748 1.5527 1.5750 1.5557 1.5553 1.5770 1.4975 1.4369 1.3322 1.2732 1.3449 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 44 Statistical Appendix PRICES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 5 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.5 3.6 5.7 2.3 3.0 3.6 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 2.3 7.8 10.1 3.7 6.5 8.2 12.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 4.0 3.0 3.9 6.3 6.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.7 6.5 3.2 5.5 6.0 8.0 6.5 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.2 Clothing and footwear -0.5 2.1 4.4 1.8 0.9 3.3 2.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 3.6 2.6 -0.5 -0.7 1.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.3 2.6 9.7 -0.2 1.0 2.2 7.6 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 -0.1 -0.9 0.4 1.0 0.4 Furnishings, household equipment 4.1 4.5 5.8 5.0 5.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 5.3 4.7 4.8 5.2 Medical, pharmaceutical products -1.7 1.1 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 0.9 1.4 2.3 1.4 1.1 Transport 1.3 0.3 1.9 -0.2 0.8 -0.9 1.6 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -0.4 -0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 Communications 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 Recreation and culture 2.1 3.6 4.4 2.5 2.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 3.0 Education 3.1 1.9 5.2 1.1 0.6 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 0.5 1.5 1.1 -1.1 1.4 Catering services 4.5 7.3 9.6 6.9 6.6 7.0 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.9 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.8 Miscellaneous goods & services 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 5.0 4.7 3.0 2.9 3.1 HCPI 2.5 3.8 5.5 2.6 3.3 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 Core inflation (trim mean) 2.8 2.3 3.9 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.1 2.8 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.1 2.6 4.6 1.9 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 3.9 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.8 Domestic market 2.4 5.5 5.6 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 3.5 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 Non-domestic market 2.1 3.0 2.2 4.0 4.3 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.4 euro area 2.4 5.1 2.2 7.0 7.4 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 7.0 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.7 non-euro area 1.6 -0.5 2.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 Import price indices 5.8 4.0 1.3 7.0 6.6 2.4 0.1 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 7.8 6.6 6.7 7.0 6.7 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 8.0 0.6 12.4 -2.0 -0.1 -1.6 6.2 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -0.4 -4.6 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 Oil products 10.3 -0.9 11.7 -4.0 -2.2 -4.3 7.4 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -2.0 -7.5 -2.3 -2.6 -3.3 Basic utilities -2.6 -2.3 0.6 -6.3 -6.2 -3.7 8.4 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 -7.4 -5.8 -5.8 -6.5 -6.0 Transport & communications 1.5 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other controlled prices 2.6 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.4 Direct control - total 7.0 3.1 8.6 1.9 3.2 1.6 5.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 2.8 0.0 2.8 3.1 2.6 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 45 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.5 5.1 5.7 5.6 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 6.9 7.6 6.9 10.0 13.3 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.6 13.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 6.0 8.1 8.5 7.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 4.1 3.1 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.9 4.8 6.7 7.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 1.7 1.9 3.2 1.4 6.7 8.2 8.0 11.7 9.6 10.4 9.3 11.4 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 5.7 4.5 3.3 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 1.5 0.9 -1.6 -1.9 0.4 2.5 1.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.7 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 1.9 1.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 3.3 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8 7.0 7.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.9 9.6 8.6 9.2 9.4 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 3.2 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.4 3.6 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 2.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.8 6.3 6.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 6.8 5.6 4.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 6.1 2.9 3.6 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.7 3.5 3.2 4.6 3.7 1.6 -1.1 - 0.9 1.3 -2.6 -3.6 2.2 8.4 7.9 12.4 12.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -0.8 -0.8 -5.5 -6.6 2.1 10.3 9.8 14.0 14.1 16.4 12.6 15.3 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -6.0 -6.0 0.7 -5.7 14.3 6.5 4.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 2.3 2.2 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 4.0 4.3 2.9 -2.3 3.9 7.1 6.6 9.3 8.8 10.4 8.5 10.8 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 46 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 3 4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -77' -',455 -2,'80 -96 -2'6 -480 -663 -5'2 -480 -456 -73' '7 -'09 -3 -'05 Goods' -',666 -2,662 -242 -359 -40' -664 -494 -678 -746 -743 -82 -80 -80 -'34 Exports '7,028 '9,798 20,278 4,783 5,027 4,927 5,062 5,'38 5,4'3 5,'25 4,602 ',47' ',5'4 ',798 ',586 Imports '8,179 2',464 22,940 5,025 5,386 5,328 5,726 5,633 6,09' 5,87' 5,345 ',553 ',594 ',878 ',720 Services 993 ','93 ',703 275 366 354 '98 355 469 545 333 '23 56 97 ''6 Exports 3,572 4,29' 5,064 897 ',038 ',307 ',049 ','08 ',243 ',5'8 ','95 32' 254 323 347 Imports 2,580 3,098 3,362 622 672 953 85' 752 774 973 862 '98 '98 226 230 Income -440 -708 -',008 -52 -'88 -356 -''2 -22' -235 -293 -259 -'6 -'6 -20 -74 Receipts 872 ','69 ',273 234 293 298 344 294 325 3'3 34' 76 75 82 93 Expenditure ',3'2 ',877 2,28' 286 48' 654 456 5'5 560 607 600 92 9' '02 '67 Current transfers -'73 -274 -2'2 -76 -34 -78 -86 -'52 -37 39 -62 -7 -69 0 -'4 Receipts 785 905 996 '97 237 2'9 252 '94 265 277 260 5' 59 87 75 Expenditure 958 ','78 ',208 273 27' 296 338 347 30' 238 322 58 '28 87 89 Capital and financial account ',092 ',7'3 2,27' 28' '77 339 9'5 42' 827 459 565 -'87 220 249 22 Capital account -'3' -52 -93 '5 -27 -32 -8 -2 -2' -42 -27 '8 6 -9 0 Financial account ',223 ',765 2,364 266 204 37' 923 423 848 50' 592 -205 2'4 258 22 Direct investment -'74 -269 257 -248 -64 -4 47 '48 -27 -86 223 -''4 -'35 2 -43 Domestic abroad -687 -',3'9 -978 -326 -296 -439 -257 -'58 -324 -332 -'63 -'07 -'57 -62 -'48 Foreign in Slovenia 5'3 ',050 ',235 79 232 435 304 306 297 246 386 -8 22 64 '04 Portfolio investment -',442 -2,264 606 -624 -',204 377 -8'4 30' -','27 '80 ',252 -902 -'52 430 -4'4 Financial derivatives -'3 -2' 6 2 -2 -'2 -'0 2 0 3 0 6 -4 ' 0 Other investment ',57' 4,'79 ',474 ',080 ',484 -22 ',636 53 ',922 403 -905 620 628 -'68 425 Assets -',939 -4,877 -7'' -2,4'3 -455 -',405 -605 -994 -'99 370 ''' -734 -836 -843 -847 Commercial credits -442 -394 -224 -385 -'80 32 '39 -508 -'66 -7 458 -27 -'64 -'94 -97 Loans -733 -',890 -49' -372 -456 -435 -627 53 -44' '62 -264 -2' -90 -26' -48 Currency and deposits -743 -2,60' -'3 -',675 '82 -990 -''8 -530 366 235 -85 -754 -575 -345 -685 Other assets -2' 7 '7 '8 0 -'2 ' -9 42 -'9 3 68 -7 -43 -'6 Liabilities 3,5'0 9,057 2,'85 3,493 ',939 ',383 2,24' ',047 2,'2' 33 -',0'6 ',355 ',464 675 ',272 Commercial credits 479 503 '70 269 55 -88 268 '77 300 70 -377 -'72 2'8 223 -'9 Loans 2,064 3,840 ',84' 32 ',554 9'0 ',345 640 ',468 234 -500 '46 -52 -62 ',02' Deposits 998 4,727 '90 3,208 338 567 6'3 253 346 -272 -'37 ',406 ',282 52' 279 Other liabilities -30 -'4 -'5 -'6 -7 -6 '6 -22 7 2 -2 -25 '6 -6 -9 International reserves2 ',28' '40 2' 55 32 64 -8' 80 ' 2' '85 -'23 -7 55 Statistical error -32' -258 -92 -'85 39 '4' -252 9' -347 -3 '67 '70 -''0 -245 84 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods ',680 ',933 N/A 456 508 466 504 523 578 595 N/A '36 '34 '85 '59 Intermediate goods 9,368 '0,438 N/A 2,609 2,670 2,560 2,593 2,752 2,894 2,73' N/A 8'' 835 963 854 Consumer goods 5,709 7,0'4 N/A ',647 ',746 ',790 ',858 ',754 ',8'6 ',648 N/A 503 52' 623 545 Import of investment goods 2,565 3,004 N/A 658 736 740 870 772 928 859 N/A '98 2'' 249 229 Intermediate goods '',3'9 '2,874 N/A 3,'52 3,2'2 3,'62 3,344 3,4'6 3,662 3,542 N/A ',006 987 ','59 ',0'6 Consumer goods 4,456 5,609 N/A ',238 ',446 ',4'3 ',508 ',457 ',5'4 ',467 N/A 359 402 477 478 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 47 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -100 -10 -230 -93 -158 -173 -184 -306 -215 -181 -116 -117 -235 -127 -194 -145 -117 -234 -151 -346 -146 -79 -89 -117 -195 -180 -191 -293 -189 -139 -167 -167 -289 -222 -264 -296 -186 -269 -185 -290 1,729 1,712 1,741 1,478 1,708 1,855 1,781 1,426 1,637 1,724 1,778 1,886 1,737 1,791 1,836 1,366 1,923 1,854 1,536 1,212 1,874 1,791 1,830 1,595 1,903 2,035 1,973 1,719 1,826 1,863 1,944 2,053 2,026 2,012 2,101 1,662 2,109 2,123 1,721 1,501 119 130 94 141 119 79 56 63 109 102 145 149 143 177 155 205 185 153 142 38 337 354 443 465 399 382 307 360 372 351 384 413 386 444 522 521 476 442 396 357 218 224 349 324 280 303 251 297 264 249 240 264 243 267 367 316 291 289 254 319 -43 -71 -210 -102 -44 -45 -28 -39 -72 -74 -76 -74 -75 -87 -91 -99 -103 -93 -85 -81 100 100 97 91 110 112 112 120 97 96 100 108 109 108 108 102 103 115 112 113 143 171 307 193 154 157 139 159 169 170 176 181 183 195 199 201 206 209 197 194 -30 10 -25 -15 -38 -27 -22 -37 -63 -70 -19 -26 -15 4 6 45 -12 -25 -24 -13 65 96 70 89 59 74 85 93 56 63 75 76 86 102 93 108 77 76 86 98 95 87 96 104 97 101 106 130 119 133 94 102 101 98 87 62 89 101 109 111 -66 221 323 19 -2 139 286 491 97 247 78 228 329 271 189 236 34 -79 289 354 -7 -20 -11 3 -24 7 5 -20 6 2 -10 6 -6 -21 -11 2 -33 -6 29 -50 -59 240 334 16 21 132 281 511 91 245 88 221 335 292 200 234 67 -74 261 404 -100 79 96 45 -145 99 -103 50 40 11 96 -50 -1 24 -90 96 -92 -20 86 157 -116 -32 -154 -61 -224 6 -159 -104 -43 -40 -76 -155 -132 -37 -210 -26 -96 -75 -18 -71 17 111 250 107 79 93 56 154 83 51 172 105 130 61 120 122 4 55 104 228 -620 -169 234 119 24 -360 -490 36 17 688 -404 -426 -457 -244 134 -207 253 379 657 216 0 -2 -7 -5 -1 -11 0 1 3 3 -3 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 726 333 -121 -136 235 384 901 351 30 -494 517 612 777 533 227 241 -65 -466 -465 26 481 -89 -605 -360 -439 -302 -372 70 139 -955 -178 395 183 -776 124 -95 342 -449 2 558 -10 -73 31 155 -154 -233 -18 390 -76 -224 -208 -23 -96 -46 16 144 -168 -40 127 370 -213 -194 -214 -148 -74 -131 -136 -359 174 -41 -80 17 -205 -253 257 -377 282 -284 73 -53 701 165 -408 -371 -211 53 -217 45 27 -685 129 352 493 -480 -154 140 249 -135 -203 253 3 13 -14 3 -1 8 -1 -6 14 -5 -18 48 -9 3 5 -2 -22 9 5 -12 245 423 484 225 674 686 1,273 282 -108 461 695 217 595 1,309 103 336 -407 -16 -467 -532 89 -15 59 -303 156 163 97 8 -78 106 150 94 214 -8 29 -95 136 -3 -130 -244 301 232 231 254 425 209 881 254 116 215 309 -175 511 1,132 108 225 -100 37 -494 -44 -140 199 188 281 98 328 299 -14 -134 150 236 294 -128 180 -40 206 -438 -51 159 -244 -5 6 7 -8 -6 -14 -4 34 -13 -10 0 4 -2 5 6 0 -5 0 -1 0 -65 -1 132 -8 -91 20 -28 72 0 37 -118 85 16 -21 -73 104 -30 33 -17 5 166 -211 -93 74 160 34 -101 -185 118 -65 39 -110 -93 -144 5 -91 83 313 -139 -8 176 174 166 140 160 180 165 159 146 178 199 194 193 191 202 151 241 197 178 N/A 921 895 918 778 864 959 927 707 892 934 927 1,015 925 953 977 755 998 978 812 N/A 592 610 619 520 651 679 653 526 561 580 613 635 578 604 607 411 630 635 508 N/A 265 242 246 199 295 303 299 268 248 251 273 316 312 301 293 225 341 285 270 N/A 1,119 1,077 1,105 955 1,102 1,161 1,185 998 1,116 1,144 1,156 1,224 1,219 1,219 1,292 1,028 1,222 1,300 1,005 N/A 494 475 478 424 511 576 492 440 466 473 518 515 501 498 519 403 546 540 438 N/A Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 48 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2006 2007 2008 2007 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 16.6 67 68 69 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 67 Central government (S. 1311) 776.6 2,367 2,162 3,184 3,219 2,944 2,748 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 24.9 118 211 108 106 107 105 107 107 107 110 111 Households (S. 14, 15) 1289.4 6,818 7,829 5,428 5,488 5,633 5,748 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 3236.0 18,105 21,151 14,086 14,250 14,660 15,142 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 368.1 2,305 2,814 1,554 1,563 1,574 1,761 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1158.7 2,401 3,663 3,505 2,770 2,267 2,033 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2298.2 26,555 32,116 21,761 21,634 21,726 22,297 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 In foreign currency 3149.0 1,990 2,370 1,048 1,100 1,160 1,248 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 Securities, total 1286.8 3,570 3,343 5,055 4,662 4,299 3,992 3,577 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2,903.4 20,029 23,156 17,823 17,912 17,914 18,066 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 Overnight 1,178.6 6,887 6,593 6,645 6,598 6,648 6,676 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 With agreed maturity -short-term 1,251.2 8,913 10,969 7,673 7,837 7,639 7,758 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 With agreed maturity -long-term 292.4 2,857 4,198 2,486 2,492 2,560 2,569 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 181.2 1,372 1,396 1,019 985 1,067 1,063 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1,454.5 559 489 634 614 607 597 615 610 605 628 608 Overnight 552.7 218 214 311 293 285 264 280 274 270 278 269 With agreed maturity -short-term 545.5 248 198 240 239 237 251 248 249 242 258 248 With agreed maturity -long-term 318.3 56 41 64 64 62 60 61 60 61 62 60 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 38.0 37 36 19 18 23 22 26 27 32 30 31 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.32 0.36 0.42 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.96 3.36 4.45 2.83 2.91 3.01 3.07 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 4.56 5.80 6.88 5.16 5.44 5.50 5.35 5.37 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 4.64 5.76 6.03 5.49 6.53 - - 4.86 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations! 2.781 3.85 | 3.851 3.501 3.501 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 3.58 4.28 4.63 3.75 3.82 3.89 3.98 4.07 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 6-month rates 3.58 4.35 4.72 3.89 3.94 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 1.51 2.55 2.58 2.15 2.21 2.26 2.32 2.41 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 6-month rates 1.65 2.65 2.69 2.26 2.32 2.36 2.44 2.54 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 49 Statistical Appendix 2007 1 2008 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 2,348 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 2,392 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 114 112 118 123 124 124 128 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 211 6,607 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 7,133 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,829 17,269 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 18,938 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,151 2,367 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,411 2,494 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,814 2,460 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 2,444 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,663 25,864 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 27,768 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,116 1,789 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 2,280 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 3,511 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 3,477 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,343 19,579 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 20,779 20,774 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,156 6,695 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 6,787 6,711 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,593 8,689 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 9,745 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,969 2,820 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 2,814 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,198 1,375 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 1,433 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 589 585 559 571 560 520 529 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 489 255 260 218 248 240 226 222 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 214 241 226 248 229 237 220 224 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 60 57 56 55 48 45 45 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 33 42 37 39 35 29 38 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.42 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 5.59 - 6.25 5.63 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 6.03 4.00 1 4.00 1 4.00 4.00 1 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.50 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.6 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.5 4.36 4.59 4.8 4.9 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 50 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 5 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 11,976.1 12,958.7 14,006.1 3,063.2 3,454.0 3,429.1 4,059.8 3,369.3 4,005.7 3,857.5 1,060.6 958.7 1,043.9 1,293.0 1,172.5 Current revenues 11,517.2 12,395.3 13,467.2 2,955.0 3,374.9 3,332.1 3,805.1 3,274.0 3,881.0 3,733.8 1,034.4 926.2 994.4 1,272.6 1,158.0 Tax revenues 10,884.0 1 1,762.0 12,757.9 2,828.7 3,199.7 3,123.6 3,606.0 3,110.0 3,702.0 3,472.0 994.5 883.2 951.0 1,219.0 1,094.2 Taxes on income and profit 2,241.9 2,735.3 2,917.7 587.7 914.3 646.3 769.4 694.4 1,106.5 806.5 188.2 189.9 209.7 462.9 288.3 Social security contributions 3,987.7 4,231.2 4,598.0 1,083.4 1,123.7 1,139.1 1,251.8 1,203.1 1,254.2 1,272.9 358.4 360.5 364.6 371.1 371.9 Taxes on payroll and workforce 526.2 472.9 418.1 96.1 99.7 101.5 120.9 59.4 62.2 63.5 32.8 32.1 31.1 32.8 32.4 Taxes on property 170.4 189.1 206.4 22.2 58.0 67.3 59.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 6.2 7.9 8.1 10.7 27.2 Domestic taxes on goods and services 3,914.7 4,077.3 4,498.6 1,017.6 973.0 1,135.5 1,372.5 1,099.4 1,181.7 1,227.8 403.2 286.9 327.6 332.5 363.3 Taxes on international trade & transactions 39.1 50.7 117.1 21.5 30.7 33.2 31.7 25.6 33.7 31.0 5.5 6.3 9.7 .9 oj 11.0 Other taxes 4.0 5.4 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 Non-tax revenues 633.3 633.3 709.2 126.3 175.2 208.6 199.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 39.9 43.0 43.4 53.6 63.8 Capital revenues 113.4 166.8 136.6 19.7 15.2 39.6 62.1 28.0 26.9 28.8 7.5 6.1 6.1 6.0 4.1 Grants 9.1 5.4 11.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.1 3.1 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 Transferred revenues 34.0 42.8 42.5 0.2 1.4 0.4 40.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 Receipts from the EU budget 302.4 348.4 348.0 86.2 59.6 55.1 147.1 64.0 94.8 91.3 17.9 26.0 42.3 13.4 8.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 12,275.7 13,208.7 13,915.5 3,201.2 3,392.6 3,240.0 4,081.8 3,388.2 3,792.4 3,628.8 983.7 1,108.8 1,108.7 1,061.8 1,242.4 Current expenditures 5,353.9 5,689.0 5,950.9 1,482.0 1,448.5 1,362.2 1,658.2 1,575.9 1,581.7 1,513.7 489.3 473.2 519.5 506.4 506.3 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,016.3 3,180.3 3,276.9 785.8 851.7 814.4 825.0 812.0 898.9 884.1 262.1 262.1 261.6 261.8 321.9 Expenditures on goods and services 1,911.0 2,073.2 2,212.2 490.3 482.6 518.0 721.3 530.9 597.2 594.5 192.1 146.0 152.2 155.1 169.3 Interest payments 372.1 376.4 357.0 197.5 105.3 17.5 36.7 221.0 69.8 12.9 32.4 62.4 102.7 87.1 12.0 Reserves 54.6 59.0 104.8 8.3 8.9 12.3 75.2 12.1 15.8 22.2 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.4 3.1 Current transfers 5,598.6 5,925.8 6,143.9 1,457.2 1,665.6 1,456.0 1,565.1 1,489.6 1,856.2 1,567.3 434.9 507.9 514.4 468.2 639.5 Subsidies 381.2 402.9 423.4 104.4 137.9 88.3 92.8 60.5 243.0 57.7 6.7 54.8 42.8 10.0 39.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,628.6 4,871.5 5,093.3 1,219.0 1,359.2 1,211.1 1,304.0 1,303.5 1,448.9 1,344.8 388.1 415.5 415.5 409.2 537.7 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 563.1 624.1 595.3 130.9 158.4 145.3 160.8 118.3 150.7 153.2 39.7 35.5 55.6 48.5 54.7 Current transfers abroad 25.7 27.4 32.0 2.9 10.2 11.3 7.6 7.2 13.6 11.6 0.3 2.1 0.5 0.6 7.3 Capital expenditures 654.2 901.4 1,130.5 133.4 162.9 266.9 567.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 44.7 46.3 42.4 46.6 55.6 Capital transfers 383.4 404.6 334.3 28.6 55.0 69.3 181.4 30.6 62.3 130.8 6.5 9.4 12.7 16.5 19.3 Payments to the EU budget 285.6 287.9 355.9 100.0 60.6 85.6 109.8 143.2 76.2 67.0 8.3 71.9 19.7 24.1 21.6 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -299.6 -250.0 90.6 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 51 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 988.5 1,182.3 1,222.7 1,024.1 1,323.7 1,323.1 1,413.0 1,134.1 1,100.1 1,135.2 1,463.1 1,259.9 1,282.8 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,309.9 1,305.1 944.3 1,159.9 1,168.9 1,003.3 1,259.4 1,236.3 1,309.4 1,104.1 1,073.5 1,096.4 1,435.7 1,228.7 1,216.6 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.1 1,184.8 886.5 1,089.8 1,099.5 934.2 1,194.1 1,168.1 1,243.8 1,057.4 1,015.6 1,037.0 1,374.1 1,175.5 1,152.4 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 1,126.5 163.1 168.7 251.4 226.3 233.4 235.7 300.3 223.0 221.2 250.1 498.3 316.7 291.5 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 380.7 379.2 377.9 382.1 385.1 397.3 469.4 394.7 400.0 408.4 419.0 415.8 419.5 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 34.5 34.1 33.6 33.9 34.1 36.5 50.3 20.0 19.5 19.9 20.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 20.0 20.8 31.4 15.2 16.3 29.3 13.3 8.7 10.5 8.3 12.0 28.6 22.1 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 277.2 475.4 395.4 264.6 514.5 459.9 398.0 404.6 354.7 340.1 411.5 383.4 386.9 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 10.7 11.5 9.6 12.0 10.4 9.1 12.2 6.3 9.3 9.9 12.3 10.5 10.9 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 57.9 70.1 69.4 69.0 65.3 68.1 65.7 46.6 58.0 59.4 61.6 53.1 64.3 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.0 58.2 5.1 13.5 17.1 8.9 14.6 15.7 31.9 11.1 9.6 7.3 6.2 5.8 14.9 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 1.4 0.7 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 39.7 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 37.5 8.1 36.6 10.4 47.6 30.6 69.0 17.7 16.1 30.2 19.3 25.3 50.2 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 1,088.3 1,094.3 1,090.3 1,055.3 1,140.5 1,249.6 1,691.7 1,030.3 1,140.4 1,217.6 1,228.3 1,363.3 1,200.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.4 1,452.7 435.8 450.8 463.5 447.9 483.8 500.7 673.7 451.0 512.3 612.7 528.6 544.9 508.2 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 268.0 271.1 273.7 269.6 266.2 273.5 285.3 266.1 263.5 282.4 275.1 336.2 287.5 289.8 289.7 304.6 290.1 303.1 158.2 170.2 183.4 164.4 187.4 212.1 321.9 157.5 171.1 202.2 187.3 201.8 208.1 206.6 188.5 199.4 210.3 244.7 6.2 6.8 3.3 7.4 26.6 4.9 5.2 22.9 74.2 123.9 61.4 2.5 5.8 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 3.4 2.7 3.2 6.5 3.7 10.3 61.3 4.4 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 557.8 525.2 467.0 463.7 473.7 547.1 544.3 460.5 517.3 511.7 579.8 707.3 569.2 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 88.2 57.3 13.0 18.0 18.0 25.6 49.2 5.0 35.0 20.6 86.7 83.7 72.6 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 412.2 406.4 403.6 401.1 405.0 470.5 428.5 418.1 441.1 444.3 445.0 566.4 437.5 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 55.2 57.6 47.1 40.6 49.6 48.9 62.3 35.7 37.7 44.9 45.9 50.3 54.5 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 2.3 4.0 3.3 4.0 1.1 2.2 4.3 1.8 3.5 1.9 2.2 6.9 4.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 60.7 72.2 104.2 90.5 117.3 121.0 329.0 53.7 44.8 50.5 69.3 68.4 78.2 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.4 96.1 19.2 22.3 23.2 23.8 35.6 49.4 96.3 9.0 10.7 10.8 18.9 19.2 24.3 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 14.8 23.7 32.4 29.5 30.1 31.3 48.4 56.1 55.3 31.9 31.7 23.6 20.9 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 52 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 Acronyms Acronyms BS - Bank of Slovenia, CAPS - Collective Agreement for the Public Sector, CPI - consumer price index, ECB - European Central Bank, EC - European Commision, EPO - European Patent Office, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESA -European system of accounts, FED - Federal Reserve System, GDP - Gross domestic product, GNI - gross national income, VAT - value added tax, HICP - harmonised index of consumer prices, IAAD - Internal Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MNZ - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - non-monetary financial institutions, NKBM - Nova kreditna banka Maribor, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PCT - Patent Cooperation Treaty, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, SID - Slovene Export and Development Bank Inc., Ljubljana, SCA - Standard classification of activities, SMARS - Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS -Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, USPTO - United States Patent and Trademark Office, WIPO - World Intelectual Property Organization Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, hunting, forestry, B-Fishing, C-Mining and quarrying, D-Manufacturing, DA-Food, beverages and tobacco, DB-Textiles and textile products, DC-Leather and leather products, DD-Wood and wood products, DE-Paper, publishing, printing, DF-Coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel, DG-Chemicals, DH-Rubber and plastic products, DI-Non-metal mineral products, DJ-Metals and metal products, DK-Machinery and equipment, DL-Electrical and optical equipment, DM-Transport equipment, DN-Furniture and NEC, E-Electricity, gas and water supply, F-Construction, G-Wholesale, retail, trade, repair, H-Hotels and restaurants, I-Transport, storage, communications, J-Financial intermediation, K-Real estate, renting and business activities, L-Public administ. & defence; comp. soc. sec., M-Education, N-Health and social work, O-Other social and personal services. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, EL-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, I-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LV-Latvia, LT-Lithuania, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America, PL-Poland, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia. 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