Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. doi: 10.2478/raon-2024-0003 43 research article Quantitative assessment of bone marrow infiltration and characterization of tumor burden using dual-layer spectral CT in patients with multiple myeloma Xing Xiong1, Rong Hong1, Xu Fan1, Zhengmei Hao1, Xiaohui Zhang2, Yu Zhang3, Chunhong Hu1 1 Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China 2 Department of Clinical Science, Philips Healthcare Greater China, Shanghai, China 3 Department of Radiology, Dushu Lake Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University, Suzhou, China Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Received 18 August 2023 Accepted 31 October 2023 Correspondence to: Yu Zhang M.D., Department of Radiology, Dushu Lake Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University, Suzhou, 215163, China. E-mail: zhangyusdfyy@163.com and Chunhong Hu M.D., Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou,215006, Jiangsu, China. E-mail: sudahuchunhong@163.com Xing Xiong and Rong Hong contributed equally to this work. Disclosure: No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Background. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether virtual calcium subtraction (VNCa) image extracted from dual-layer spectral CT could estimate bone marrow (BM) infiltration with MRI as the reference standard and characterize tumor burden in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). Patients and methods. Forty-seven patients with newly diagnosed MM were retrospectively enrolled. They had undergone whole-body low-dose dual-layer spectral CT (DLCT) and whole-body MRI within one week. VNCa images with calcium-suppressed (CaSupp) indices ranging from 25 to 95 at an interval of 10 and apparent diffusion coef- ficient (ADC) maps were quantitatively analyzed on vertebral bodies L1−L5 at the central slice of images. The optimal combination was selected by correlation analysis between CT numbers and ADC values. Then, it was used to char- acterize tumor burden by correlation analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis, including plasma cell infiltration rate (PCIR), high serum-free light chains (SFLC) ratio and the high-risk cytogenetic (HRC) status. Results. The most significant quantitative correlation between CT numbers of VNCa images and ADC values could be found at CaSupp index 85 for averaged L1−L5 (r = 0.612, p < 0.001). It allowed quantitative evaluation of PCIR (r = 0.835, p < 0.001). It could also anticipate high SFLC ratio and the HRC status with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.876 and 0.760, respectively. Conclusions. The VNCa measurements of averaged L1−L5 showed the highest correlation with ADC at CaSupp index 85. It could therefore be used as additional imaging biomarker for non-invasive assessment of tumor burden if ADC is not feasible. Key words: bone marrow; tumor burden; virtual non-calcium; dual energy CT; multiple myeloma Introduction Multiple myeloma (MM) is one of the malignant hematological diseases with monoclonal prolifera- tion of plasma cells which primarily involves bone marrow (BM).1 “Myeloma bone disease” forms when malignant proliferation of plasma cells dis- places the healthy BM, and then results in activa- tion of osteoclasts and inhibition of osteoblastic activity.2,3 The characterization of BM tumor bur- den has important indications for treatment regi- mens, treatment response and surveillance. It has Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Xiong X et al. / Tumor burden and dual-layer spectral CT in multiple myeloma44 been exclusively accomplished by BM biopsy and serologic/urine markers such as plasma cell infil- tration rate (PCIR), serum-free light chains (SFLC) ratio, paraproteins (M-protein) in serum/urine and cytogenetic status.4-6 However, these biomarkers examinations suffer unavoidable deficits such as invasive, painful and expensive. As first introduced by Durie and Salmon in 1975, conventional radiographic survey of the skeleton was applied to stage MM bone disease.7 However, owing to low sensitivity in detecting osteolytic lesions and unable to evaluate therapy response, it calls for more practical techniques to be used. With the development of imaging techniques such as monoenergetic computed tomography (MECT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and fluoro- deoxyglucose positron-emission-tomography CT (FDG PET/CT), direct evaluation of BM infiltration has become possible.8 MECT is widespread avail- able and economic efficient, so MM patients are commonly first assessed with whole body MECT scans.9 The major limitation of MECT is low sen- sitivity for detecting nonlytic BM infiltration in the axial skeleton, which is more common for MM patients. MRI is confirmed to be “imaging golden standard” for BM infiltration which has proven higher sensitivity in detecting MM lesions than any other modality.10 Whereas, it takes long time to accomplish examination for patients which may cause unbearable pain and claustrophobia.11,12 FDG PET/CT has been lately recommended to evalu- ate response and residual activity in treated pa- tients as it could respond to BM changes quickly.13 However, the associated radiation and economic cost should be considered. Dual-layer spectral CT (DLCT) is a novel CT technique with two different detector layers atop each other to absorb different parts of the poly- chromatic-attenuated X-ray spectrum. It could construct various parameter images e.g., uric acid, iodine, or calcium according to the aim of research retrospectively. Recent studies showed that DLCT, especially virtual non-calcium (VNCa) image, shows significant improvements in comparison to MECT and comparable to FDG PET/CT and MRI in the evaluation of MM.14-16 Hence, our study had two objectives: firstly, to explore the potential of VNCa image in estimating BM infiltration with MRI as the reference standard in MM patients. Secondly, to identify if VNCa image could charac- terize tumor burden by correlate with established biomarkers (PCIR, SFLC ratio and cytogenetic sta- tus). Patients and methods Patient characteristics The study was approved by ethics committee of lo- cal institution and the need for written informed consent was waived due to retrospective nature of the study (registration number: 000/2021). All scans were performed for conventional clinical re- quirements. We have collected the information of MM pa- tients from 6/2021 to 10/2022 admitted to our in- stitution consecutively. The inclusion criteria were as follows: (1) histologically confirmed diagno- sis of MM; (2) the interval between clinical data, whole-body low-dose DLCT and whole-body MRI examination no more than two weeks; (3) received no specific therapy for MM before. The exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) patient’s age below 18 years; (2) no complete clinical data, neither DLCT nor MRI examination; (3) obvious metal or motion artifacts affecting the lumbar vertebral segmenta- tion. Imaging acquisition and post-processing All scans were performed on a commercially avail- able spectral detector DLCT scanner (IQon Spectral CT, Philips Healthcare), following the most recent recommendations of the International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG).17 Patients were placed in a head-first supine position. The scan ranges from vertex of the skull to the knees. No contrast agent was given. Scan parameters were as follows: tube voltage, 120 kV; tube current, 70 mAs; collimation, 64×0.625 mm; pitch, 0.990; rotation time, 0.75 s; volumetric computed tomography dose index, 7.4 mGy. Mean dose length product was 1069.2 ± 205.9 mGy*cm. The field of view (FOV) was adjusted de- pending on patient body volume. The corresponding MRI examination was per- formed on a 3.0 T scanner (Magnetic Verio, Siemens Healthcare, Erlangen Germany). The patients were also placed in a head-first supine position. Phased- array surface coils were installed to cover from the head to the upper femur. No contrast medium was given. The protocol parameters were as follows: T2 turbo inversion recovery magnitude (TIRM) sequence [echo time (TE), 84 ms; repetition time (TR), 7110 ms; slice thickness, 5 mm; slice gap, 1.5 mm; FOV, 480 mm] was acquired on the coronal plane from the head to the upper femur. On the same coverage area, axial DWI sequences were ac- quired using two values (b = 50, 700 s/mm2) with Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Xiong X et al. / Tumor burden and dual-layer spectral CT in multiple myeloma 45 the following parameters: TR, 4000 ms; TE, 46 ms; slice thickness, 5 mm; slice gap, 0; FOV, 450 mm. Post-processing of spectral-based image (SBI) data was performed with the vendor’s software (IntelliSpace Portal Version 11, Philips Healthcare). First, all SBI images were reconstructed in a 512 × 512 matrix, slice thickness 2 mm with an overlap of 1 mm. Then, VNCa images were created from SBI data by exploiting the material specific attenuation of X-rays in different energy levels to simulate each voxels attenuation in Hounsfield units without the calcium-specific contribution. The intelligent post- processing vendor allows calcium suppression in seamlessly adjustable factors. In our study, VNCa images were reconstructed with calcium-sup- pressed (CaSupp) indices ranging from 25 to 95 in steps of 10. Among them, CaSupp indice 25 means images has minimum visibility of bony structures and 95 means maximum visibility. Segmentation of the bone marrow Although the MM lesions were scattered, it in- volved typical location such as lumbar vertebra, pelvis and ribs. So, we chose to focus on L1−L5 due to the large size of those vertebrae with maximized reliable measurement, typical sites of BM infiltra- tion and minimally affected by the intrauterine de- vice.18,19 Using the same software, regions of inter- ests (ROIs) were positioned manually in the sagittal vertebral bodies L1−L5 to measure the respective CT numbers and basivertebral vein was avoided from the ROIs. Since the lumbar vertebra were wide, a standard circular ROI which size set to 100 mm2 was placed at the central slice. To ensure compara- bility, ROIs were copied between different CaSupp indices. At the same time, the corresponding loca- tion was contoured manually on the axial apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) map (Figure 1). The im- ages were analyzed by two radiologists with more than 5 years of experience who were blinded to any patient information. The intraclass correlation co- efficient (ICC) was calculated for determining the interrater reliability of the quantitative assessment. The final CT number and ADC values were aver- aged. The analysis of VNCa and ADC images was conducted for 10 min per person. Assessment of established biomarkers PCIR was obtained through BM biopsy on the wing of ilium and assessed by our in-house pa- thologists. Immunoturbidimetry was used to detect the expression levels of SFLC kappa and FIGURE 1. An example of bone marrow (BM) segmentation in multiple myeloma (MM) patient. An oval regions of interests (ROIs) of 100 mm2 was drawn at the central slice of sagittal vertebral bodies L1−L5 in different virtual calcium subtraction (VNCa) images and the corresponding location was manually displayed on the axial apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) map. (A) calcium-suppressed (CaSupp) index 25, (B) CaSupp index 55, (C) CaSupp index 85, (D) CaSupp index95, (E) magnification of (C), (F) ADC map. A B C D E F Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Xiong X et al. / Tumor burden and dual-layer spectral CT in multiple myeloma46 lambda. SFLC ratio were classified as high (<0.01 or >100) or low (0.01−100) according to the IMWG criteria and the practical experience of our institu- tion.20,21 Cytogenetic status was performed by fluo- rescence in situ hybridization (FISH) in interphase cells to overcome the problem of karyotyping. MM patients were divided into high-risk cytogenetic (HRC) and standard risk cytogenetic (SRC) groups on the basis of FISH results. Patients who pre- sented with any of the following cytogenetic ab- normalities (CAs) were categorized into the HRC group: del(17p), t(4;14), t(14;16), t (14;20), gain(1p), or p53 mutation. Other MM patients were allocated into the SRC group. Statistic assessment Statistical analysis was performed by either SPSS 22.0 software (Chicago, IL, USA) or MedCalc sta- tistical software version 16.4.3 (Ostend, Belgium). Correlations between different VNCa CT numbers (combined L1−L5 with different CaSupp indices) and ADC values were calculated. Since VNCa CT numbers and ADC values were normally distrib- uted, Pearson’s correlation analysis was applied. Then the optimal combination was used to char- acterize PCIR by correlation analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) analysis was carried out to predict binary outcomes “high SFLC ratio” and “HRC status”. Statistical signifi- cance was defined as p ≤ 0.05. Results Patient characteristics A total of 382 MM patients were admitted at the hematology center in our institution for whole- body DLCT. Of these, 5 patients had to be excluded because they were under 18 years old. 239 patients had to be excluded because they have received anti-myeloma treatment. 61 patients had no com- plete clinical data, neither DLCT nor MRI exami- nation. Another 30 patients had obvious metal or motion artifacts that affected the lumbar verte- bral segmentation. Consequently, 47 MM patients were included. Enrollment results of MM patients after exclusion were shown in the Figure 2. The average interval between the clinical examina- tion and DLCT scan was 10 days [interquartile range 3.0−13.5 days]. The clinical characteristics are shown in Table 1. The interrater reliability of all quantitative measurements was very high with ICC ranged from 0.824−0.970. Correlation analysis 1880 and 235 ROIs were derived from VNCa im- ages for different CaSupp indices and ADC maps, respectively. Table 2 shows the mean ADC values and CT numbers (combination of different ver- tebral bodies and CaSupp indices). Regardless of the measured location, CT numbers in VNCa FIGURE 2. Flow chart of patients’ selection. DLCT = low-dose dual-layer spectral CT; MM = multiple myeloma TABLE 1. Patient characteristics Characteristics n Age* 57.9 ± 8.1 Sex# Males 26 (55.3%) Females 21 (44.7%) Myeloma subtypes# IgG 32 (68.1%) IgA 10 (21.3%) Light chain 5 (10.6%) Plasma cell infiltration ratio obtained from the wing of ilium* 0.54 ± 0.30 Kappa/lambda SFLC ratio# High (< 0.01 or > 100) 27 (57.4%) Low (0.01−100) 20 (42.6%) Cytogenetic status# HRC 26 (55.3%) SRC 21 (44.7%) *represented as Mean ± SD; # represented as number (percentage) HRC = high-risk cytogenetic; SD = Standard deviation; SFLC = serum-free light chains; SRC = standard risk cytogenetics Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Xiong X et al. / Tumor burden and dual-layer spectral CT in multiple myeloma 47 images at CaSupp indices from 75 to 95 were sig- nificantly correlated with ADC (Pearson’s r ranges from 0.342−0.612, with all p < 0.05). Inversely, CT numbers in VNCa images at CaSupp indices from 35 to 45 showed no correlation with ADC for all locations. The highest correlation of VNCa-CT numbers and ADC values was averaged L1−L5 at CaSupp indices 85 (Pearson’s r = 0.612, p < 0.001). Figure 3 provides the statistical results regarding the correlation between CT numbers (combined different CaSupp indices with measured locations) and ADC values. Characterize tumor burden with optimal combination of CaSupp index and vertebral body The CT number of averaged L1−L5 at CaSupp in- dex 85 showed significant correlation with the PCIR (r = 0.835, p < 0.001) confirmed by BM biopsy (Figure 4). It showed a mean infiltration ratio of 54% (range, 10%−95%; median 60%). We performed ROC analysis with the predic- tor binary outcome “SFLC ratio” and “cytogenetic status” using the CT number of averaged L1−L5 at CaSupp index 85. Expectedly, it exhibited satisfy- ing performance for discriminating high and low SFLC ratio with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.876 (0.736−0.958). The corresponding sensitivity, specificity and cutoff value were 0.952, 0.800, 10.66, respectively. Also, AUC for prediction of the “cy- togenetic status” was 0.760 (0.603−0.878). The cor- responding sensitivity, specificity and cutoff value were 0.714, 0.762, 20.43, respectively (Figure 5A, B). Discussion Our results showed that VNCa images derived from DLCT could estimate BM infiltration with FIGURE 3. Heat map of Pearson’s correlation r and p value between CT numbers (combined different calcium-suppressed [CaSupp] indices with measured locations) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values. TABLE 2. Means and standard deviations of MRI apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and CT numbers in virtual calcium subtraction (VNCa) images for all measured locations L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 Averaged L1−L5 ADC 554.12±177.42 520.02 ±171.74 546.19 ±179.75 523.20 ±175.14 524.3 ±173.17 536.30 ±163.93 CaSupp 25 -236.58±77.07 -227.60±73.00 -217.83 ±83.35 -225.40 ±82.36 -244.67 ±79.27 -221.19 ±78.89 CaSupp 35 -138.15±46.58 -131.15±43.86 -127.11 ±51.4 -133.38 ±49.30 -143.10 ±48.23 -128.84 ±47.37 CaSupp 45 -82.04±30.19 -77.33 ±28.86 -75.38 ±34.45 -81.01 ±31.32 -85.24 ±31.31 -76.42 ±30.10 CaSupp 55 -45.12±20.87 -41.925 ±20.70 -41.32 ±24.80 -46.57 ±20.95 -47.08 ±21.44 -41.92 ±19.91 CaSupp 65 -18.50±16.35 -16.38 ±17.05 -16.79 ±19.89 -21.71 ±15.83 -19.71 ±16.14 -17.07 ±14.58 CaSupp 75 2.03±15.39 3.29 ±16.53 2.12 ±18.3 -2.58 ±14.9 1.42 ±14.54 2.08 ±13.26 CaSupp 85 18.63±16.60 19.22 ±17.75 17.45 ±18.93 12.93 ±16.52 18.55 ±15.37 17.61 ±14.59 CaSupp 95 32.46±19.15 32.46 ±20.12 30.25 ±20.75 25.98 ±19.16 33.00 ±17.41 30.59± 17.20 CaSupp = calcium-suppressed index Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Xiong X et al. / Tumor burden and dual-layer spectral CT in multiple myeloma48 MRI as the reference, especially the CT number of averaged L1−L5 at CaSupp index 85 showed the highest correlation with ADC. What’s more, it al- lowed quantitative evaluation of tumor burden by correlating with PCIR and anticipating high SFLC ratio and the HRC status. Instead of activating a second X-ray tube or rap- id-voltage switching tube before performing the examination, DLCT adopts two different detector layers to decrease X-ray dose. For postprocess- ing, the flexible vendor could construct different parameters. VNCa image is a common parameter in musculoskeletal system9,22,23, in which the osse- ous component is removed from the spectral base data in order to improve visualization of BM. The degree of calcium suppression depends on the CaSupp index, which defines the calcium compo- sition level. Several documents have confirmed the importance of VNCa image. Fervers et al. as- sumed that the pathologic BM was defined as vox- els >0 HU and concluded that it could significantly predict BM infiltration, osteolytic lesions and the clinical diagnosis of MM.14 However, there is no consensus for the CT cutoff number of pathologic BM. Brandelik et al. assessed the potential of VNCa images to reflect BM infiltration.16 They evaluated the different regions (C7, T12, L1−L5) and infiltra- tion patterns (non-diffuse and diffuse). However, C7 is not the typical region for BM infiltration and could be influenced by beam hardening artifacts easily as far as we know.24 Fervers et al. also inves- tigated if VNCa images might discriminate meta- bolically vital, focal lesions from avital lesions in MM patients with FDG PET/CT as the standard of reference.15 Best result was yielded by high cal- cium suppression, followed by medium and low calcium suppression. However, the median inter- val time between DECT and FDG PET/CT was 53 days which was so long to leave time window for possible change in tumor biology between two images. In our study, the CaSupp indices ranged from 25 to 95 with an interval of 10 to search for the optimal CaSupp index, which may be more scientific and comprehensive. There is a growing tendency of the importance for increased CaSupp index that high CaSupp index could provide more information for BM infiltration and tumor burden than low CaSupp index. This might due to gradual exposure of underlying plasma cell cluster by in- creasing calcium suppression, which further vali- dates VNCa images as a measurement tool for tu- mor burden. The averaged L1−L5 seems to be more representative than single lumbar vertebra due to the large size of those vertebrae with maximized reliable measurement avoiding sclerosis, fractures, or disc herniations. We did not divide the infiltra- tion pattern according to MRI performance and we believe that this “agnostic” approach provides a more reliable marrow sample for evaluation of BM infiltration.25 We have included laboratory biomarkers to evaluate MM tumor burden. Among them, PCIR was obtained through BM biopsy on the iliac crest clinically, which is painful and uncomfortable for most patients. Despite IMWG recommendation26, a recent large-scale clinical analysis was performed to explore whether BM biopsy is necessary in all patients diagnosed with monoclonal protein since in some cases it did not contribute to the diagno- sis. In our study, PCIR was correlated well with CT number of averaged L1−L5 at CaSupp index 85. Thus, it’s promising to obtain PCIR results by measuring CT number noninvasively. Due to dif- ferent thresholds for the serum paraproteins of MM subtypes (e.g., IgA, IgG, IgM), only SFLC ra- tio was taken into consideration which is also an important indicator of tumor burden. In 2014, the IMWG included the SFLC ratio in the diagnostic criteria for MM, and SFLC ratio >100 is consid- ered as a biomarker for ultrahigh-risk smolder- ing MM patient.4 However, some MM patients are non-secretory or hypo-secretory and are therefore difficult to surveille by means of serologic/urine markers alone which influences patient manage- ment at primary diagnosis and during therapy.27 FIGURE 4. Bivariate correlation between CT number (averaged L1−L5 at calcium- suppressed [CaSupp] index 85) and plasma cell infiltration rate (PCIR) confirmed by bone marrow biopsy. The Pearson’s r yields 0.835 with p value < 0.001. Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Xiong X et al. / Tumor burden and dual-layer spectral CT in multiple myeloma 49 What’s more, myeloma may escape hematologic diagnosis if it extends outside the marrow cavities (extramedullary).28 Similarly, ROC analysis indi- cates satisfactory performance for VNCa images to discriminate high and low SFLC ratio with AUC 0.876. Some studies have found that CAs are sig- nificantly associated with the proliferation and se- cretion of tumor cells.29-31 It was obtained through different invasive methods such as FISH. However, this technique suffers some drawbacks. For exam- ple, the patients may experience the pain of biopsy and bear the expensive expenses. What’s more, the BM results may be influenced by intratumoral heterogeneity and poor sample quality.32-33 So, de- veloping a convenient and noninvasive method to predict cytogenetic status is critical for clinicians and patients. The results showed that VNCa im- ages could anticipate HRC status with preferable AUC, sensitivity and specificity of 0.760, 0.714 and 0.762. Since the above specific situations may exist in clinical practice, such as painful and unbearable biopsy for some patients, non-secretory or hypo- secretory M protein, extramedullary infiltration et al., DLCT could be employed to evaluate tumor burden additionally. There are some limitations that needed to be discussed. First, the number of patients was rath- er small. Since the incidence rate of MM is lower than other diseases and is complex to deal with, so patients are usually admitted to specialized hos- pitals. Second, it was validated in the lumbar ver- tebra which were considered as the representative region of BM infiltration and minimally affected by the intrauterine device. But this needs to be up- scaled across the body and also has more robust measurement of technique accuracy. Third, corre- lation with PCIR was possible only for the pelvic bones, but this reflects the deficit of daily practice. Finally, this study investigated the ability of DLCT acquired by specific scanner, imaging protocols, and post-processing tools which may not widely applied in other institutions. In the future, more studies are needed for definitive evaluation of this powerful technological equipment. Conclusions Quantitative assessment of VNCa images in DLCT is a potential determination of BM infiltration ex- tent in MM for radiologists and would be prom- ising incorporated into the daily clinical practice, especially when the gold standard MRI is not ac- cessible. Therefore, VNCa images could be used as additional imaging biomarkers for non-invasive assessment of tumor burden. Acknowledgement This study has received funding by Gusu health tal- ent project of Suzhou (GSWS2020003) and Suzhou Science and Technology Project (SKJY2021025). FIGURE 5. Receiver operating characteristic curves for CT number (averaged L1−L5 at calcium-suppressed [CaSupp] index 85) to predict “high serum-free light chains (SFLC) ratio” (A) and “cytogenetic status” (B). A B Radiol Oncol 2024; 58(1): 43-50. Xiong X et al. / Tumor burden and dual-layer spectral CT in multiple myeloma50 References 1. Kazandjian D. Multiple myeloma epidemiology and survival: a unique malignancy. Semin Oncol 2016; 43: 676-81. doi: 10.1053/j.seminon- col.2016.11.004 2. Panaroni C, Yee AJ, Raje NS. Myeloma and bone disease. Curr Osteoporos Rep 2017; 15: 483-98. doi: 10.1007/s11914-017-0397-5 3. O’Donnell EK, Raje NS. Myeloma bone disease: pathogenesis and treat- ment. Clin Adv Hematol Oncol 2017; 15: 285-95. PMID: 28591104 4. Rajkumar SV, Dimopoulos MA, Palumbo A, Blade J, Merlini G, Mateos MV, et al. International Myeloma Working Group updated criteria for the diag- nosis of multiple myeloma. Lancet Oncol 2014; 15: e538-48. doi: 10.1016/ S1470-2045(14)70442-5 5. 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