Slovenian economic mirror April 2010, No. 4, Vol. XVI Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 4 / Vol. XV I / 2010 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Jure Brložnik, MA, Matevž Hribernik (International Environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic Developments in Slovenia); Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour Market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of Payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial Markets); Jasna Kondža, Maja Kozar (Public Finance); Mateja Kovač, MSc (Prices in the agro-food supply chain). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Language Editor: Terry Troy Jackson Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Circulation: 90 copies The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the Spotlight...............................................................................................................................................................3 Current Economic Trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International Environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic Developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................9 Labour Market..................................................................................................................................................................15 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................18 Balance of Payments.......................................................................................................................................................20 Financial Markets.............................................................................................................................................................22 Public Finance...................................................................................................................................................................24 Selected Topics..............................................................................................................................................................27 Prices in the agro-food supply chain............................................................................................................................29 Statistical Appendix.....................................................................................................................................................33 Boxes Box 1: Merchandise trade - real movements and the impact of the terms of trade.........................................10 Box 2: (In)solvency..........................................................................................................................................................12 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 3 In the Spotlight In the spotlight The spring forecasts of the European Commission and IMF confirm the expectations that the global economy is recovering gradually, albeit unevenly across regions and more slowly than after previous recessions. Both institutions revised their autumn forecasts upwards slightly, particularly due to the faster recovery in developing economies. The rebound has also been positively impacted by rapidly recovering world trade flows, better-than expected conditions in financial markets and the movement of inventories. After declining by 0.6% last year, the world economy will increase by 4.2% this year and 4.3% next year, according to IMF projections. Both institutions find risks to be more balanced as in the autumn, but uncertainty regarding short-term prospects remains high, particularly because the recovery is still mainly dependent on fiscal and monetary stimulus. The sovereign debt risk and the risk of a loss of the ability to ensure the long-term sustainability of public finance have increased since the autumn. Economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners will be modest this year, and the latest forecasts do not diverge significantly from the assumptions in our Spring Forecast. In the firsts two months of 2010, the short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia remained roughly at the level of last autumn. Positive movements were recorded only for activities related to the international environment, as amid a slight recovery in the international environment, February (like a few previous months) saw a slight improvement in merchandise exports and industrial production in more export-oriented industries. Domestic demand, in contrast, remained weak. After the increase in January, the value of construction put in place, real turnover in trade, real turnover in hotels and restaurants, and nominal turnover in wholesale trade declined again in February, according to seasonally adjusted figures. Insolvency increased further in the first quarter of this year, as the number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities was nearly one half higher than in the same period last year, while the average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities doubled. Even if there has been no visible improvement in the indicators of business activity, the movement of the confidence indicator shows that sentiment improved up to April in all sectors except in construction. In February, the number of persons in formal employment remained at a similar level as in the previous month. In the first four months of this year, the number of registered unemployed persons hovered below 100,000. In February, the number of persons in employment declined particularly in construction, but also in manufacturing and transport, while it increased in public services. The number of work permits for foreigners also continues to decline. In the first quarter of 2010, it was 15.8% lower compared to the same quarter of last year, in construction by more than one fifth. In the first quarter, the number of registered unemployed persons increased further by 4.0% to 99,423, and totalled 99,316 at the end of April. The gross wage per employee dropped in February (by a nominal 1.2%), as expected, which is related to the lower number of working days. In the private sector, wages declined in nearly all activities, as in February wages tend to be even lower than in January because February usually has fewer working days. Y-o-y growth, however, has been strengthening since November 2009, due to the base effect and partly as a result of changes in the structure of employment and a slightly higher volume of overtime work, which was nearly one third higher compared to the same month last year. The average wage in the public sector also declined in February, while its y-o-y growth rate has been hovering around zero since November. With a 1.0% monthly increase in prices in April, y-o-y inflation rose to 2.3%. Monthly growth was, as in March, mainly underpinned by higher prices of clothing and footwear and higher energy prices, which contributed 0.4 p.p. and 0.3 p.p. (respectively) to total price growth. The former rose for the usual seasonal reasons, the latter due to energy price movements on global markets. In the first four months this year, prices rose by 1.7%, 0.5 p.p. more than in the same period last year. Y-o-y inflation in the euro area rose by 0.1 p.p. to 1.5% in April, according to Eurostat's first estimates. The lending activity of domestic banks was relatively high in March for the third consecutive month, but nevertheless lower than before the crisis. In March, the bulk of net flows of loans resulted from massive net borrowing of households, while corporate and NFI borrowing slowed significantly compared to the previous two months. The maturity of borrowing shortened at the same time. As to the sources of finance, banks continued to make net repayments on foreign loans; government deposits saw high net outflows for the second month in a row, while the volume of household deposits shrank due to unfavourable labour market movements and relatively high growth rates in capital markets. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 4 In the Spotlight In the first three months of 2010, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped further, which indicates that the state budget deficit may be higher than planned. In the first three months of this year, revenue from taxes and social security contributions was 2.6% lower relative to the same period last year. Only revenues from the value added tax increased, while revenues from all other taxes and contributions declined. If these movements continue, general government revenue will be lower than planned, partly owing to the deteriorated macroeconomic conditions and partly due to tax refunds, which will be higher than foreseen. According to the data on the consolidated balance, the gap between general government revenue and expenditure totalled EUR 230 m in January alone. current economic trends 7 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends International environment The spring forecasts of the European Commission and IMF confirm the expectations that the global economy is gradually recovering, though unevenly across regions and more slowly than after previous recessions. Both institutions revised their autumn forecasts upwards slightly, largely due to the recovery in developing economies, which has been more dynamic than projected in the autumn. The rebound has also been positively impacted by rapidly recovering world trade flows, better-than-expected conditions in financial markets (though still worse than before the crisis), and particularly by the movement of inventories. After declining by 0.6% last year, the world economy will increase by 4.2% this year and 4.3% next year, according to IMF projections. Both institutions find risks to be more balanced than in the autumn, but uncertainty regarding short-term prospects remains high, particularly because the recovery is still mainly dependent on fiscal and monetary stimulus. The sovereign debt risk and the risk of a loss of the ability to ensure the long-term Figure 1: Structure of world economic growth I Rest of the world «China «USA «Other developed countries 5.5 u Q. O o E rNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrsrN Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2010. sustainability of public finance have increased since the autumn, particularly for certain developed countries. The latter is particularly important, according to the IMF, as governments will have limited room for manoeuvre should economic activity drop again as in the autumn 2008. The recovery of the European economy is positively influenced by the recovery of global trade flows, while domestic demand remains weak. According to the EC and IMF forecasts, this year's economic growth in the EU and euro area will thus be modest this year, at 1.0%. Along with massive fiscal stimulus, the recovery in the EU will mainly reflect improvement in the international environment and consequently higher demand for European goods. According to the EU, this will have a positive impact particularly on countries with large shares of investment goods in total exports, which dropped most notably during the crisis and are now recovering at the fastest pace, while euro area exports have also been favourably impacted by the depreciation of the euro in recent months. Domestic demand, however, remains weak, as private consumption stagnated in the last quarter of last year and investment continued to decline. Overall, GDP in the EU and euro area ceased to grow towards the end of 2009, which the EC associates with the expiry of certain short-term incentives, while the short-term movement of GDP was also significantly influenced by the cycle of inventory adjustment. GDP growth is also set to be modest in the first three quarters of this year, and the recovery is not expected to become sustainable before the end of this year and in 2011. According to the EC, the speed and sustainability of the economic recovery will crucially depend on the resolution of global imbalances. If Asian economies were to maintain the current structure of economic growth and their current exchange rate policies, the burden of adjustment would fall mainly on the European economy, which would lead to the appreciation of its real effective exchange rate and a consequent loss in competitiveness. The recovery of the European financial system is another important factor, as it is still uncertain whether bank balance sheets have already improved enough to meet the expected Table 1: Economic growth forecasts by international institutions and IMAD's assumptions used in the Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2010 Real GDP growth, in % EU EMU DE IT AT FR UK ZDA CZ HU PL HR BIH SR MK RUS 2009 real growth -4.2 -4.1 -5.0 -5.0 -3.6 -2.2 -4.9 -2.4 -4.2 -6.3 1.7 -5.8 -3.0* -2.9* -2.0* -7.9 IMAD Mar 10 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.6 3.1 1.2 -0.2 2.6 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 2010 CONS Apr 10 1.1 1.2 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 3.2 1.5 -0.1 2.8 -0.4 1.3 1.2 1.9 4.7 IMF Apr 10 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 3.1 1.7 -0.2 2.7 0.2 0.5 2.0 2.0 4.0 EC Apr 10 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.8 1.6 0.0 2.7 -0.5 N/A N/A 1.3 3.7 IMAD Mar 10 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 2011 CONS Apr 10 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.6 3.6 2.2 3.2 3.3 3.0 4.6 IMF Apr 10 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.2 2.5 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 EC Apr 10 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.3 2.0 N/A N/A 2.0 4.0 Source: IMAD Spring Forecast of EconomicTrends 2010, March 2010 ; Consensus Forecasts, April 2010; Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, April 2010; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2010; EC Spring Forecasts, May 2010. Note: * WIIW estimate, March 2010. 4.5 3.5 o 5 2.5 1.5 0.5 8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends increase in demand for loans. The IMF emphasises the risk that with banks having to further reduce leverage and improve capital adequacy, small and medium-sized enterprises and households will still find it difficult to access to loans, while large enterprises have already been compensating for the loss of bank loans by issuing bonds. The third factor to affect the economic recovery in Europe is ensuring the long-term sustainability of public finance, as the general government deficit in the EU as a whole tripled to 7.25% of GDP last year, while general government gross debt increased to 79.6%, which is nearly 20 p.p. more than in 2008. The deficits are set to stop widening in most Member States this year, but the EC and IMF nevertheless highlight the urgency of establishing a credible and transparent medium-term strategy to ensure the sustainability of public finances. Figure 2: Forecast of quarterly GDP growth in selected trading partners -EU ----Euro area ■ Germany ----- USA Figure 3: Yield to maturity of government bonds ! \ J \ ____--- t \ i IN // 'I \ VI ........ ........ Forecast 2.0 1.5 S 1.0 0.5 5 05 0 8 -0.5 SS 1 -1.0 1-1.5 I -2.0 t -2.5 6 -3.0 -3.5 -4.0 g g 52 - a a a a Source: Eurostat, EC Spring Forecast 2010. Interest rates on interbank markets remained at very low levels in April. Central banks left their interest rates unchanged, while the yield to maturity of government bonds in certain euro area countries is rapidly increasing. The average monthly value of the three-month EURIBOR remained unchanged in April with regard to March, totalling 0.65%, seven basis points below the average of December 2009. Key interest rates of the main central banks did not change in April (ECB: 1.0%, Fed: 0.0%, BoE 0.5%). The yield to maturity of government bonds continued to increase rapidly in April, particularly in Greece. The euro depreciated against the US dollar in April, for the fifth month in a row. The average exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar totalled USD 1.3406 to EUR 1, down 1.2% from March and 8.3% from December last year. In April, the euro lost value against the British pound sterling (down 3.0%, to GBP 0.8746 to EUR 1) and Source: Eurostat. Swiss franc (by 1.0%, to CHF 1.4337 to EUR 1), while it appreciated somewhat against the Japanese yen (up 1.9%, to JPY 125.32 to EUR 1). The price of the Brent crude oil increased significantly in April for the second month in succession. The average monthly price of Brent crude oil rose by 7.6% to USD 84.82 a barrel in April (in EUR, by 8.4% to EUR 63.99 a barrel). Y-o-y, the average monthly price of oil in USD increased by 69.0% (by 13.9% since December 2009), in EUR by 63.9% (by 23.9% since December 2009). The average oil price rises in the last two months largely reflect the encouraging news regarding the global economic recovery and increased demand for oil in some emerging Asian economies, particularly China. Figure 4: Oil prices and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in USD (left axis) -Price in EUR (left axis) -Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 160 140 120 100 . 80 60 40 20 0 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 s s 8 ï Ï S ^ S ! Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. 9 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Economic activity in Slovenia In the first two months of 2010, the values of short-term indicators of economic activity remained roughly at the level achieved in autumn last year; positive movements were recorded only for activities related to the international environment, while domestic demand remains weak. Amid a slight recovery in the international environment, February (like a few previous months) saw a slight improvement in merchandise exports and industrial production in more export-oriented manufacturing industries. Domestic demand, in contrast, remains weak. Imports of goods otherwise increased in February, after three months of decline, but in our view this growth mainly reflected higher import prices, while the import volume dropped again. After the increase in January, the value of construction put in place, real turnover in hotels and restaurants and nominal turnover in wholesale trade declined again in February, according to seasonally adjusted figures. Figure 5: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports (nom.) -Industrial production in manufact. ---------Value of construction put in place -Turnover in trade —«—Turnover in hotels and restaurants ---------Turnover in wholesale Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The value of merchandise trade has been hovering around the levels achieved last autumn in recent months. Merchandise exports increased in nominal terms in February (by 1.7% seasonally adjusted), as did merchandise imports (by 4.8%, seasonally adjusted), after declining for three months. The dynamics over a somewhat longer period show that the strengthening of merchandise trade ceased. Movements of seasonally adjusted nominal and real values of merchandise exports were on a slightly rising trend between April and autumn 2009; since then, merchandise exports have fluctuated around the achieved levels, while merchandise imports remain at the level recorded in the first half of last year, after increasing slightly last autumn.1 1 Real values of merchandise imports have been calculated by means of SORS data on import prices, while export prices, which are published with a lag, are based on the prices of industrial goods on the foreign market, as these goods represent the bulk of Slovenia's merchandise exports. Figure 6: Real merchandise exports and imports, seasonally adjusted -Merchandise exports -Merchandise imports Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Y-o-y values of merchandise trade were positive in February for the first time since the beginning of the recession. Exports of services increased, while imports of services were still lower than in February last year. Merchandise exports increased by 2.9% y-o-y in nominal terms, largely as a result of a higher volume of exports and only to a smaller extent due to higher export prices, in our view (see Box 1). Exports to EU countries strengthened in nominal terms, particularly exports by highly export-oriented industries (such as the manufacture of vehicles and electrical appliances), while mainly export-oriented industries also recorded a smaller y-o-y decline in exports than in previous months. Unlike exports to EU countries, exports to non-EU countries were still lower than in the same period last year. Merchandise imports also increased y-o-y in February (4.0%), for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, mainly as a result of higher imports of intermediate products. Growth in the value of merchandise imports mainly resulted from the increase in import prices, in our view (see Box 1). In the first two months this year, total merchandise exports increased by 2.3% and merchandise imports by 1.0% y-o-y in nominal terms, but nevertheless remained much below what was recorded before the crisis. February's y-o-y growth in services exports mainly came from higher exports of various business, professional and technical services, as well as road transport services. In addition to lower imports of various business, professional and technical services, a significant contribution to the decline of services imports came from a drop in travel services imports. Like exports, imports of transport services increased y-o-y. In the first two months of 2010, exports of services declined by 2.3% and imports by 1.8% y-o-y. Production volume in manufacturing strengthened in February (5.7%, seasonally adjusted), after shrinking in January. Compared with the same month last year, production volume increased by 2.4% (working-day adjusted), which was mainly a contribution of certain 10 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Box 1: Merchandise trade - real movements and the impact of the terms of trade The terms of trade, which had been improving y-o-y since November2008, deteriorated noticeably in February (by 5.1%, by our estimate). Export prices recorded modest growth (0.4% y-o-y), according to our estimate, while import prices increased significantly (5.9%), mainly as a result of higher prices of oil and other primary commodities. Similar to last year, export and import price movements had a great impact on the value of merchandise trade. Due to a drop in prices, the nominal decline in merchandise trade exceeded the real decline last year, more so on the side of merchandise imports than exports, with import prices dropping more than export prices y-o-y, largely under the influence of energy price movements. In the last three months, import prices have already increased y-o-y, while export prices have not. In the first two months of this year, real merchandise exports were already higher than in the same period last year, according to our estimate, while merchandise imports remained lower. A breakdown of y-o-y growth rates of nominal values of merchandise exports to the contribution of real movements and price movements in the first two months shows that this growth is a consequence of a higher volume of exports. In the first two months, the movement of nominal merchandise imports was positively affected only by growth in import prices, while the import volume remained lower than in the same period last year. Figure 7: Breakdown of nominal y-o-y growth in Figure 8: Breakdown of nominal y-o-y growth in merchandise exports merchandise imports 30 20 Price effect Volume effect - -Nominal changes i n ■ ^ A 1 I.I 1 10 ■ Il I I!1 1 H TO "I0 "20 \ i/ -30 \ \ 1 L r m- j "40 -JU CO CO o o CO o CO O O O CS\ o o o O 1 t D O $ ž D 0 fï Q. < Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. more export-oriented industries. Most export-oriented industries recorded higher production volumes in February (with the exception of the textile industry and other miscellaneous manufacturing industries). High-technology industries (except the manufacture of other machinery and equipment) exceeded the February level the most. Among all manufacturing industries, the February 2009 level was exceeded the most in the manufacture of transport vehicles (even if y-o-y growth in this sector more than halved in February relative to January), as last year's volume of automobile production was favourably influenced by measures taken in certain European countries to stimulate new care purchases. The low base effect, which contributed to high y-o-y growth rates in previous months, is now smaller. Amid a later and weaker recovery in domestic demand, production activity again fell behind y-o-y, most notably in industries that are mainly oriented to the domestic market (by 16.0%, according to the original2 figures) and where the decline in production has yet to slow. Production volume of these industries dropped by more than one tenth in the first two months compared with the same period last year, while remaining roughly unchanged, on average, in more export-oriented industries. Similar movements were recorded for turnover: turnover on the domestic market, which had started to strengthen in December last year, was still 3.5% lower y-o-y in the first two months (working-day adjusted), while turnover on the foreign market, which had been strengthening since the second quarter of 2009, was higher y-o-y also at the beginning of this year (7.9%). 2 For manufacturing sub-categories only original figures are available. 11 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Figure 9: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing -Seasonally adjusted -Original data il 110 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2008 II 10/ I 10 II 10/ II 10 I-II 10/ I-II 09 Exports1 -18.2 5.5 2.2 1.1 -goods -19.2 8.0 2.6 2.0 -services -14.3 -4.8 0.4 -2.3 Imports1 -23.0 12.1 4.6 1.3 -goods -25.9 14.3 5.8 1.8 -services -3.9 -0.3 -2.6 -1.8 Industrial production -16.9 5.72 1.53 -3.53 -manufacturing -18.1 5.72 2.43 -2.93 Construction -value of construction put in place -21.0 -9.12 -28.73 -20.83 Distributive trade - total turnover in retail trade -12.8 -2.52 -1.63 -3.03 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants -11.3 -6.02 1.23 3.03 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'balance of payments statistics, Seasonally adjusted ,3working-day adjusted data. The prospects for the coming months have improved somewhat according to data on business trends, but most indicators remain at last year's levels. Among the situation indicators, the indicator of export orders rose most notably in April, as it is improving more rapidly and has come closer to the levels recorded before the production shrinkage than the overall order-book indicator, which also takes account of domestic demand. Similar movements were recorded for indicators of expectations: the highest increase was recorded for business optimism regarding future exports, which had a positive impact on the indicator of expected total demand. The indicator of expected production improved, reflecting the expected strengthening of demand, but enterprises nevertheless anticipate a further decline in the number of employees. Even though some improvement was perceived, enterprises again reported insufficient domestic and foreign demand as the main limiting factor in the second quarter, but the share of these enterprises was again lower. Capacity utilisation increased slightly in the second quarter (75.4%, seasonally adjusted) as well as y-o-y, for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, but remains below the long-term average. Figure 10: Selected situation indicators and indicators of expected business trends in manufacturing -Overall order-books -----Export order-books -Expected total demand -----Expected export order-books —♦— Production expectations 40 30 T, 20 I 10 f 0 I -10 o £ -20 -30 -40 U J -50 ro m -60 -70 Source: SORS. After the temporary strengthening in January, the value of construction put in place dropped again in February (-9.2%, seasonally adjusted), but data on the value of new contracts and the stock of contracts show the first signs that the intensive decline in construction activity may be gradually coming to the end. The value of construction put in place dropped in all construction sectors in February, the most in construction of flats3 (-14.9%) and the least in non-residential construction (-1.8%). The low monthly decline in construction activity was also due to unfavourable weather conditions this time. Construction activity has been gradually falling ever since 2008, but was nevertheless still higher in February than in 2005, i.e. before the period when construction activity surged. Since 2008, construction activity has declined as a result of lower investment activity of the business sector, largely due to deteriorating economic conditions and lower availability of financial sources. The strong decline in the construction of flats is also attributable to the high stock of unsold flats, which has been impeding activity in this construction sector for quite a while. Civil engineering saw a decline in orders from the public sector, particularly for construction of road infrastructure, where record realisation was posted in 2008. Even if negative 3 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it does not include the activity of smaller enterprises, which we estimate are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings. 140 120 100 90 80 70 12 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Figure 11: Value of construction put in place and value of new contracts, trend-cycle -Value of construction put in place -Value of new contracts ccccccccccc Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Trend-cycle component according to the Tramo-Seats method. movements in construction activity continue, data on the values of new contracts and the stock of contracts indicate that construction activity may bottom out in these months. The most optimistic data were recorded for non-residential construction and are, in our view, mainly related to business sector investment. Electricity consumption recorded stronger y-o-y growth again in March and y-o-y production also increased. After declining for approximately two years, electricity consumption has been growing rapidly since last December. It increased 7.6% y-o-y in March and 4.9% in the first quarter as a whole. Direct consumption (steelworks, aluminium production) was 29.2% higher and other consumption 4.7% higher in March. After dropping by 6.8% y-o-y in February, electricity production increased by 4.2% y-o-y in March and by 0.1% in the first quarter as a whole. Electricity production in thermal power plants increased by 15.7%, electricity production in the nuclear power plant remained at the level of the same month last year, while production in hydroelectric power plants dropped by 5.7%. Production in hydroelectric power plants was otherwise still more than one fifth higher than the average March production in previous ten years. Box2: (In)solvency The number of insolvent legal entities increased further in the first quarter of this year. According to data collected by the Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Records (AJPES), in the first quarter of 2010 the number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month was 44.8% higher than in the first quarter of last year; 66.1% more bankruptcy procedures were initiated than in the same period last year. It has to be emphasized that data on outstanding matured liabilities taken into account in the analysis refer only to outstanding liabilities of legal entities (excluding sole proprietors) arising from court decisions on enforcement and tax debt. Therefore, they represent only a small part of all outstanding liabilities from unpaid bills between creditors and debtors, which are used in estimating the insolvency of legal entities. Changes in the Execution of Judgements in Civil Matters and Insurance of Claims Act that are underway will accelerate enforcement procedures and repayments to creditors, which will improve the financial discipline of business entities. Figure 12: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and average total amount of outstanding liabilities I No. of legal entities (right axis) -Average total daily amount of outstanding liabilities A 5,000 4,700 4,100 3,800 S .Q E 3,500 z 3,200 2,600 2,300 According to data collected by AJPES, 5,182 legal entities had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive Source: AJPES. days in a month in an average daily amount of EUR 284 m in March 2010. The number of these entities increased by one third from the previous March, while the average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities doubled. The greatest contributions to the increase in the total number of legal entities came from legal entities in construction (more than one quarter), the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (18.0%) and manufacturing (13.4%). The bulk of the increase in the total amount of outstanding matured liabilities came from legal entities in financial and insurance sectors (nearly one third), construction (over one quarter) and manufacturing (17.8%). In March this year as well as in March last year, the number of such legal entities was greatest in construction (this year, 24.1%, last year, 23.4%). In March 2010, the highest average amount of outstanding matured liabilities was recorded in construction (26.0%), and in March 2009, in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (25.3%). 80 13 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Box2: (In)solvency - continued Table 3: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities , March 2010 Activity Number of legal entities with outstanding matured obligations Growth Dec. 09/ Dec. 08, in % Growth Mar. 10/ Mar. 09, in % Growth I-III 10/ I-III 09, in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, EUR Growth Dec. 09/ Dec. 08, in % Growth Mar. 10/ Mar. 09, in % Growth I-III 10/ I-III 09, in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities per legal entity, EUR Construction 1,247 76.0 36.7 56.5 73,859,227 189.3 120.8 140.1 59,230 Financial and insurance activities 52 34.1 40.5 55.3 48,320,315 91.9 1.231.8 270.6 929,237 Manufacturing 674 53.6 34.0 42.0 44,925,718 56.3 134.3 83.9 66,655 Trade; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 1,075 34.4 27.2 33.3 43,977,188 18.5 24.8 29.5 40,909 Professional, scientific and technical activities 539 51.7 27.1 39.2 21,545,479 18.4 9.1 29.5 39,973 Transportation and storage 323 76.3 50.2 70.4 15,002,404 69.0 185.2 153.5 46,447 Other activities 1,272 50.1 31.7 42.4 36,050,687 56.2 58.1 57.2 28,342 Total 5,182 53.8 32.8 44.8 283,681,018 74.3 103.6 93.8 54,744 Vir: AJPES. International electricity trade increased significantly in March. Not including the Croatian part of nuclear power plant production, exports increased by 29.1% and imports by 33.4% y-o-y. Slovenia's net electricity imports thus accounted for 3.0% of consumption in March and 7.9% of consumption in the first quarter as a whole. Figure 13: Electricity production and consumption 25 -20 CO Oï O o o a a a Source: ELES; calculations by IMAD. In the last quarter of last year, the volume of road and rail freight transport recorded a smaller y-o-y drop than in previous quarters, while in 2009 as a whole the greatest decline was seen in the volume of rail freight transport. After dropping by an average of -10.8% y-o-y in the first three quarters of last year, the volume of road freight transport4 fell by 4.7% in the last quarter, recording a 9.2% decline in 2009 as a whole. Rail freight transport recorded a 4 Freight vehicles registered in Slovenia. much larger decline, 15.9% y-o-y, and 24.2% in 2009 as a whole. Within road freight transport, national transport declined more than international transport in 2009 as a whole, while rail freight transport saw a somewhat larger drop in international transport. Harbour transport and maritime freight transport declined last year (-17.4% and -5.5%, respectively), being also lower y-o-y in 2010, according to the most recent available data for February (13.0% and 1.9%, respectively). The volume of passenger transport also declined in 2009, with the exception of rail passenger transport, which recorded some growth. While the 2009 decline in interurban and urban passenger transport only continued the long-term downward trend, the falls in air passenger transport (-11.5%) and airport passenger traffic (-13.7%) were more related to the global crisis and the high base effect as a result of the Slovenian presidency of the Council of the EU in 2008. In February, Figure 14: Road and rail freight transport Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 14 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends both sectors recorded higher volumes again y-o-y. Air transport increased by 8.5% and airport traffic by 2.2%. After increasing in January, total real turnover in retail trade and in the sale of motor vehicles5 dropped in February (seasonally adjusted), while the y-o-y decline slowed further due to the base effect. Within the total retail trade and the sale of motor vehicles, in February, the decline in real turnover eased y-o-y in retail trade,6 while turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles rose y-o-y for the second consecutive time. The falling of turnover in retail trade slowed largely because the decline in turnover in specialised stores selling automotive fuels and in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco nearly halved (due to the base effect, as turnover had started to decline y-o-y in February last year), while the decline in the sale of non-food products continued to increase. Within the sale of non-food products, slight growth was recorded only for turnover in specialised stores selling pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products, while specialised stores selling furniture, household appliances and construction material still recorded a relatively large decline;7 the decline in turnover in other sub-categories of the sale of non-food products continued to increase. Turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles was somewhat higher than in February last year. Growth was recorded in the sale of motor vehicles and motorcycles (the number of new passenger car registrations increased by 0.3%, of which the sale to natural persons by 3.8%8), while turnover in the maintenance and repair of motor Figure 15: Turnover in retail trade and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 5 In total retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). 6 According to provisional data, March saw a 1.7% y-o-y decline in turnover in retail trade. However, provisional data are not available for all sectors of retail trade and motor vehicle sales; furthermore, there have been significant differences between provisional and final data in recent months. 7 After dropping by nearly one fifth last year, turnover declined by one tenth in February. 8 The total number of new passenger car registrations was 9.0% higher y-o-y after the revision of data in March (5.8% by natural persons) and 10.4% higher in April (1.1% by natural persons). vehicles dropped by one tenth. In the first two months of 2010, total turnover dropped by 3.8% y-o-y, of which in retail trade by 6.6%, while turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles increased by 3.0%. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade shrank in February (seasonally adjusted), after the January increase, while the decline in turnover increased y-o-y. The decline in nominal turnover in wholesale trade increased further in February, despite the significant reduction in 2009; in the first two months of 2010, turnover dropped by nearly one tenth from a year earlier. Turnover in wholesale trade continues to fall, in our view, largely due to a further decline in construction activity. Real turnover in hotels and restaurants dropped again in February (seasonally adjusted), after having increased in January, while it was higher y-o-y. February saw further y-o-y growth in the number of overnight stays, resulting from a higher number of overnight stays by domestic tourists (by 6.5%, while the number of foreign tourist overnight stays dropped by 0.6%). Real turnover in hotels and restaurants increased by 1.7% y-o-y in February, and by 3.1% in the first two months of the year. Figure 16: Tourist overnight stays and turnover in hotels and restaurants Turnover in hotels and restaurants -Overnight stays -total -----Overnight stays -domestic -Overnight stays -foreign Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Indicators of household consumption have not improved. In February and March, turnover in retail trade and the net wage bill remained lower than in the same period of 2009, but recorded a smaller decline than in previous months. Household spending abroad has also been declining since December, compared with a year before. In April, the sale of new passenger cars to natural persons dropped compared with than in March, but increased by one percentage y-o-y. Consumer optimism about future developments increased slightly, but has been fluctuating around the autumn level in recent months. Consumers also seem to be increasingly inclined to save, as this subindex rose again in April. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends 15 Figure 17: Household consumption indicators Labour market 20 10 0 ' -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 I Turnover in retail trade (left axis) No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) - Net wage bill (left axis) -10 T3 -50 Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. The sentiment indicator increased in April, according to seasonally adjusted data, and is already much higher than in the same period last year, when it was lowest to date, but remains below the long-term average. In April, the highest increase was recorded for the value of the confidence indicator in retail trade, followed by confidence indicators in manufacturing and services. The value of the consumer confidence indicator also increased. The construction sector was the only sector, in which the value of the confidence indicator also declined in April, hitting a new low. Figure 18: Business trends - Economic sentiment - Retail trade - Service act. Manufacturing Consumers Construction In February, the number of persons in formal employment remained at a similar level as in the previous month, but the y-o-y decline was smaller (-3.8%). According to seasonally adjusted data, it otherwise increased slightly (0.2%), for the first time since the beginning of the crisis in September 2008, but according to original data, it declined by 0.01%. The number of self-employed persons outside agriculture declined (by 0.2%), while the number of employed persons (persons in paid employment) increased somewhat. Broken down by activities, relative to January, the number of employed persons again declined, most notably in construction (by 776), transport and manufacturing, while it increased in public administration, education, and health and social work. Figure 19: Increase in the number of persons in formal employment Dec./Nov. ■Jan./Dec. ■ Feb./Jan. 0 Q 6 * Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The number of vacancies and persons hired increased for seasonal reasons in March, but remained lower than a year earlier. The number of vacancies and the number of persons hired were 15.6% and 9.6%, respectively, higher than in February 2020, but 4.3% and 17.2% lower, respectively, than in March last year. In the first quarter of 2010 as a whole, the number of vacancies was 5.6% lower and the number of persons hired 14.3% lower than in the same period of 2009. At the y-o-y level, demand for workers diminished most notably in construction, trade, and hotels and restaurants, while it increased in manufacturing, and in professional, scientific and technical activities. Vacancies for all levels of education have declined y-o-y, the least for jobs requiring a higher education. 40 30 1.0 -10.1 Source: SORS. 16 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends foreigners (77,091) thus dropped by 15.8% compared with the same quarter of last year, in construction by 20.9%. In the first quarter of 2010, the inflow into registered unemployment was smaller than in the same quarter last year, while the outflow was larger. In the first quarter this year, the average number of registered unemployed persons (99,423) was 29.2% higher than in the same quarter of 2009. A total of 19,852 persons (20.1% less than in the same quarter last year) registered due to job loss, and there were 2,865 first-time job-seekers (11.6% less than in the same period last year). In the first quarter, 14,178 unemployed persons found work (49.7% more than in the same quarter last year), while 6,318 unemployed persons were deleted from the unemployment registers for other reasons (22.4% more than in the same quarter last year). Men still account for a larger share of the registered unemployed than women (52.8%, on average, in the first quarter of 2010). The share of long-term unemployed persons9 is rising rapidly again, reaching 38.3% of all unemployed in the first quarter. The number of registered unemployed persons was hovering slightly below 100,000 in April for the fourth successive month. The number of registered unemployed dropped Table 4: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % 2009 II 09 I 10 II 10 2009/ 2008 II 10/ I 10 II 10/ II 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 37.9 37.8 31.9 31.9 -4.5 0.0 -15.5 B Mining and quarrying 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.0 -7.5 -0.5 -11.4 C Manufacturing 199.8 209.6 190.0 189.9 -10.1 -0.1 -9.4 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.0 2.9 0.0 2.4 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.0 8.9 9.0 9.0 2.3 0.5 1.9 F Constrution 86.8 87.7 81.5 80.7 -1.3 -1.0 -8.0 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 114.6 115.9 112.8 112.8 -1.0 0.0 -2.7 H Transportation and storage 49.8 50.8 48.5 48.3 -2.8 -0.4 -4.8 I Accommodation and food service activities 34.0 33.9 33.6 33.6 0.6 0.0 -0.9 J Information and communication 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.4 2.8 0.0 -0.2 K Financial and insurance activities 24.5 24.7 24.1 24.1 1.0 0.1 -2.1 L Real estate activities 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.7 -0.3 0.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 44.8 44.2 45.9 45.9 4.6 0.1 4.0 N Administrative and support service activities 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.0 -1.7 0.3 2.0 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.5 51.0 51.6 51.8 1.1 0.5 1.6 P Education 61.7 61.4 63.0 63.3 2.8 0.4 3.0 Q Human health and social work activities 52.1 51.8 52.3 52.6 2.1 0.6 1.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.1 14.0 14.2 14.3 1.8 0.5 1.7 S Other service activities 13.3 13.1 13.4 13.4 3.7 0.5 2.6 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 7.0 1.4 0.6 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 20: Increase in vacancies K u C o O 8 ^ CC O LU < 3 u u ï Q ro O 1- c ro 5 c D Ü CO 2 ê C o U CO s Ü Z o 1 îrt 1J 15 D CL u s 6« Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The number of work permits for foreigners continued to decline in March. It dropped to 76,473 (17.5% less than a year before), again the most in construction. In the first quarter of 2010, the average number of work permits for 1.0 9 Unemployed over 12 months. 17 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Figure 21: Flows in registered unemployment New first-time job-seekers Lost work Other outflows from unemployment (net) ^^m Unemployed persons who found work -Change 40 i- Table 5: Labour market indicators o -10 ! -20 -30 Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. to 98,893 in March, and rose slightly again in April: to 99,316, which is a 19.9% higher figure than a year earlier. Seasonally adjusted data indicate that in April the growth of the number of registered unemployed persons increased for the third month in a row, but nevertheless remained much lower than a year before. Figure 22: Registered unemployed persons by age -Young people (aged 26 or younger) ----Aged 27-39 -Aged 40-49 -------50 years and over ^ ~~ y z*' / — f / a a a Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. The average wage dropped again in February, as expected, which is related to the lower number of working days. The gross wage per employee declined in almost all private and public sector activities in February, by 1.2% on average in nominal terms. Y-o-y growth has been strengthening for the third consecutive month due to wage movements in the private sector, and averaged 2.9% in the first two months of the year. in % 2009 II 10/ I 10 II 10/ II 09 I-II 10/ I-II 09 Labour force 0.2 0.0 -1.1 -1.1 Persons in formal employment -2.4 0.0 -3.8 -4.0 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.5 0.0 -3.8 -4.0 Registered unemployed 36.6 0.2 29.3 32.0 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 -1.2 3.6 2.9 - private sector 1.8 -1.4 4.6 3.7 - public sector 6.5 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 2009 II 09 I 10 II 10 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 9.1 8.2 10.6 10.7 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,438.96 1,381.87 1,448.12 1,431.45 Private sector (in EUR) 1,338.77 1,271.42 1,348.49 1,329.72 Public sector (in EUR) 1,749.82 1,733.31 1,745.45 1,734.17 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 23: Gross wage per employee -Total -Private sector -----Public sector 1 X / 1 / <\ 1 : \ * \ \ A y > • Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The average wage in the private sector declined in February for the third month in succession for seasonal reasons related to the number of working days, while its y-o-y growth has been strengthening since November last year. The average gross wage declined (-1.4%) in nearly all activities in this sector,10 as expected, as wages in February tend to be even somewhat lower than in January because February usually has fewer working days. Gross wage growth in this sector has been strengthening y-o-y since November 2009 (4.6% in February), especially in industry 10 Except in real estate (1.1%) and other miscellaneous business activities (0.5%), while the average gross wage in electricity, gas and steam supply stagnated. 0 18 16 14 10 8 6 30 4 25 20 10 5 0 18 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Figure 24: Breakdown of the monthly increase in the private sector gross wage Wage excluding overtime work and payments in arrears ^^m Overtime payments ^^m Payments in arrears -Wage growth, in % Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. (B-E; 8.2%), mainly due to the base effect and partly as a result of changes in the structure of employment and a slight strengthening of the volume of overtime work. Overtime work increased by 3.8% compared with the previous month (despite one fewer working day), and by as much as 30.5% y-o-y due to a low number of overtime hours worked in the same month last year. Overtime payments, therefore, also made a positive contribution to this sector's gross wage growth. The average wage in the public sector in February was slightly lower than in January, while its y-o-y growth rate has been hovering around zero since November. The average gross wage declined in February (-0.6%) in all activities Figure 25: Breakdown of the monthly increase of the gross wage in the public sector 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Wage excluding overtime work and payments in arrears Overtime payments Payments in arrears Wage growth, in % of this sector,11 except in public administration, where it remained at the same level as in the previous month. Y-o-y, the public sector gross wage stagnated, posting low growth already since November last year (around 0.0%). Prices Y-o-y inflation increased to 2.3% in April. With a 1.0% monthly increase of prices, y-o-y inflation rose from 1.4% in March to 2.3% in April. In the first four months this year, consumer prices increased by 1.7%, 0.5 p.p. more than in the same period last year. Average inflation (12-month) totalled 0.9% in April. Y-o-y inflation in the euro area rose by 0.1 p.p. to 1.5% in April, according to Eurostat data. Figure 26: Consumer price growth in Slovenia and in the total euro area Source: SORS, Eurostat. Consumer prices recorded relatively high growth in March and April, 1.1% in March (last year: 1.0%, in 2008: 1.3%) and 1.0% in April. Y-o-y inflation had not changed much in March, but it surged in April, also as a result of weak monthly growth of prices in April 2009 (0.1%), and totalled 2.3%. In both months, consumer prices increased at the monthly level mainly under the influence of seasonal factors, as expected, especially prices of clothing and footwear, with higher energy prices and April's increase in excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products also playing an important role. Due to higher oil prices and especially the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar in March and April, prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating increased in both months, even though excise duties were reduced in March. Prices of rail passenger transport also increased in March, by around 6%, in line with the effective Administered Prices 4 3 2 0 16 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 11 Particularly in recreational, cultural and sporting activities (-2.0%), followed by health and social work (-1.7%) and education (-0.2%). 19 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Table 6: Prices 2009 2009 in % XII 09/ O (I 09-XII 09)/ III 10/ III 10/ O (IV 09-III 10)/ XII 08 O (I 08-XII 08) II 10 III 09 O (IV 08-III 09) Consumer prices (CPI) 1.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 0.8 Goods 1.9 0.0 1.5 1.4 0.1 - Fuel and energy 14.6 -3.5 1.4 13.6 0.7 - Other -0.4 0.6 1.5 -1.2 0.0 Services 1.6 2.6 0.0 1.6 2.2 Consumer prices (HICP) 2.1 0.9 1.0 1.8 1.0 Administered prices1 12.6 -4.7 1.8 14.7 -1.7 - Energy 14.7 -9.6 2.2 18.2 -3.3 - Other 4.0 2.5 0.5 4.0 3.4 Core inflation - excluding (fresh) food & energy 0.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.5 Consumer prices in the EMU 0.9 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.3 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers - domestic market -0.7 -0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.7 - EMU -2.3 -3.5 0.4 -1.0 -4.0 Sources: SORS. Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 due to annual changes of the administered price index. figures are not directly comparable across years. Municipal services are included in the calculation throughout 2009. Adjustment Plan for 2010-2011. Prices of public utility services continued to rise in April (1.6%), after a modest one-month decline (1.2%). Inflation in Slovenia remains among the highest in the euro area. As in the second half of 2008, inflation in Slovenia also continued to slow last year but was, even if relatively low, still among the highest in the euro area y-o-y at the end of the year and in March 2010. In the last twelve months, price dynamics in Slovenia and in the entire euro area were crucially marked by the movement of prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating, and weak economic activity. Significant differences between inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area as a whole stem from different weights for liquid fuels for transport and heating, reflecting a relatively higher share of expenditure allocated for liquid fuels by an average Slovenian household compared with an average household in the euro area. With almost equal y-o-y rises in these energy prices (29%) in March, their contribution to inflation was 0.8 p.p. higher in Slovenia (totalling 1.1 p.p. in the euro area as a whole and 1.9 p.p. in Slovenia). Another important difference is related to the prices of non-energy industrial goods, which largely follow the movements of prices of clothing and footwear and passenger cars. Prices of these goods move in a similar direction both in Slovenia and in the euro area, but in Slovenia, price changes tend to be more pronounced. In the euro area as a whole, these prices were approximately at the same level as in March 2009, due to weaker demand, while in Slovenia, they dropped by an average of 3.0%. Regarding services price rises and their contribution to inflation, there is almost no difference between Slovenia and the total euro area. Figure 27: Y-o-y inflation in the euro area - HICP Y-o-y growth in producer prices of manufactured goods increased in March. Y-o-y growth in producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market (which turned positive again in February after nine months of negative figures) strengthened somewhat further in March. It was at 0.5%, which is 0.4 p.p. more than in February. The movement of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods for sale on the domestic market has been significantly affected by commodity price movements in the international environment, which are (in great part through the movement of prices of 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends imported goods) reflected in the movement of prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products and in the manufacture of food products. Prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products increased by 4.1% y-o-y in March, due to higher commodity prices in the international environment as a result of increasing demand by emerging economies, while the y-o-y decline of prices in the manufacture of food products remained at the level recorded after the February decline (0.9%). y-o-y in February. The euro depreciated against most main currencies outside the EU for the third and against most of the main EU currencies for the second successive month. Relative12 consumer prices otherwise rose slightly in February, after two months of decline; y-o-y, they were just above the level of a year earlier, as in January. Improvement in price competitiveness is also indicated by the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative producer prices in manufacturing. Figure 28: Growth in industrial producer prices -PPI (domestic market) ---------EL., GAS, STEAM, AIR COND. SUPPLY -MANUFACTURING -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., exc. mach. and equip. - Mfr. of food products; beverages and tobacco products 15 10 : 5 ---- \ —V V N___» \ rzr^ / \ -10 -15 -20 Source: SORS. After deteriorating steadily for one year, price competitiveness continued to improve in February for the third month in a row under the impact of the depreciation of the euro. The real effective exchange rate deflated by relative consumer price growth, which has been dropping at the monthly level since December, also fell Figure 29: Nominal and real effective exchange rates 114 112 110 108 g 106 o 104 g 102 - 100 98 96 94 92 Real, deflated by CPI - Real, delated by PPI - Nominal effective exchange rate Balance of payments The deficit in the current account of the balance of payments totalled EUR 133.0 m in the first two months of the year and was EUR 63.4 m lower y-o-y. The y-o-y decline is largely a result of lower deficits in factor incomes and current transfers. The surplus in international trade (merchandise and services trade together) narrowed slightly y-o-y. The deficit in current transactions increased in February relative to January, totalling EUR 121.1 m, but remained roughly unchanged y-o-y. Figure 30: Components of the current account balance I Trade balance I Factor incomes -Current account Services balance Current transfers ^ < Source: BS. After the January surplus, international trade recorded a deficit in February. The y-o-y increase of the deficit in merchandise trade mainly resulted from a lower surplus in trade with non-EU countries, as exports to these markets have yet to rebound. With exports growing faster than imports in nominal terms, the narrowing of the deficit in trade with EU countries slowed in February, mainly due to increasingly stronger imports. Exports to EU countries increased y-o-y for the third month in a row, as did imports, after several months of decline.The merchandise trade deficit totalled EUR 78.5 m in the first two months of 2010, mainly due to February movements. The surplus in the services balance declined in February compared with Source: ECB, SORS, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 2 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. 0 21 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends January, largely due to the seasonal decline in turnover from tourism. The y-o-y increase in the surplus of the services balance was mainly attributable to a higher surplus in trade in other business and road transport services. In the first two months of the year, the surplus in the services balance totalled EUR 142.3 m, EUR 6.1 m less than in the same period of 2009. The deficit in factor incomes narrowed in February, while the balance of current transfers again recorded a deficit. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes remained lower y-o-y in February. While the surplus in labour income remained modest, the net outflow of capital income continued. Net interest payments of domestic commercial banks on loans taken out abroad continued to decline. Because of bonds issued by the government sector and commercial banks, interest payments to the rest of the world were again higher than interest receipts from investments in securities. Net interest payments of the general government remained at the same level as in the previous month (EUR 26.0 m), but were higher y-o-y. The deficit in the balance of current transfers declined almost solely as a result of the general government deficit. After higher net absorption of EU funds in November and December last year, payments exceeded receipts in the first two months of this year. External financial transactions recorded a net inflow of EUR 64.5 m in February (a net outflow of EUR 193.5 m in February last year). In February, net capital outflows were recorded by the private and public sectors, while the BS had a net capital inflow. The bulk of the net capital outflow Table 7: Balance of payments I-II 10, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-II 09 Current account 3,407.2 3,540.2 -133.0 -196.5 - Trade balance (FOB) 2,560.6 2,639.1 -78.5 -80.5 - Services 576.6 434.3 142.3 148.4 - Income 144.7 262.5 -117.8 -151.2 Current transfers 125.3 204.3 -79.0 -113.1 Capital and financial account 733.9 -608.7 125.2 -66.0 - Capital account 19.7 -29.0 -9.3 -9.3 - Capital transfers 19.4 -28.5 -9.1 -8.2 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -1.1 - Financial account 714.2 -579.7 134.5 -56.7 - Direct investment 71.6 -89.8 -18.2 -9.0 - Portfolio investment 1,311.7 -422.6 889.0 969.2 - Financial derivates 0.0 0.1 0.1 -23.3 - Other investment -727.1 -67.3 -794.4 -1,076.2 - Assets 289.0 -67.3 221.6 677.9 - Liabilities -1,016.0 0.0 -1,016.0 -1,754.1 -Reserve assets 58.0 0.0 58.0 82.6 Net errors and omissions 7.8 0.0 7.8 262.5 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Figure 31: Financial transactions of the balance of payments Direct investment I Financial derivatives -Net financial flow Portfolio investment ■ Other investment ™ < Source: BS. of the private sector came from investment in foreign securities. Domestic commercial banks mainly invested in money market instruments, while other sectors did so in bonds and notes. After a high net capital inflow in January (EUR 1,347.7 m) due to the issue of a benchmark bond, the general government recorded a net capital outflow of EUR 43.8 m in February. The net outflow of foreign investment in general government debt securities totalled EUR 22.7 m. The BS borrowed EUR 534.5 m through the Eurosystem to provide liquidity for domestic banks. 1800 S 0 22 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Net external debt increased slightly in the first two months of this year. It totalled EUR 10.7 bn at the end of February (30.5% of estimated GDP) and was EUR 167 m higher than at the end of last year (by 0.4 p.p. of estimated GDP). At the end of February, Slovenia's gross external debt totalled EUR 40.4 bn (115.6% of GDP), EUR 326 m more than in December last year. Gross external claims in debt instruments also increased, totalling EUR 29.8 bn at the end of February (85.1% of GDP), which is EUR 159 m more than in December 2009. Financial markets The lending activity of domestic banks was relatively high in March for the third consecutive month, but nevertheless lower than in the period before the crisis. In March, the bulk of net flows of loans resulted from massive net borrowing of households, while corporate and NFI borrowing slowed significantly in March compared with the previous two months. At the same time, the maturity of borrowing shortened. As to the sources of finance, banks continued to make net repayments on foreign loans, while government deposits saw high net outflows for the second month in a row and the volume of household deposits shrank due to unfavourable labour market movements and relatively high growth rates in capital markets. Figure 32: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households (left axis) Enterprises&NFI (left axis) Government (left axis) -----Households (right axis) Enterprises&NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis) -300 -8 CO Oï O O O '— OOO Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Lending activity in March was at a somewhat lower level than in the previous months and banks recorded net lending to domestic non-banking sectors in the amount of EUR 112.3 m. Y-o-y growth strengthened to 2.6% due to low lending activity in March 2009. In the first quarter of 2010, banks recorded net lending of EUR 394.4 m, more than one tenth less than in the comparable period last year. This relatively small decline is, to a great extent, a result of lower net repayment of foreign currency loans, while borrowing in euro loans dropped by more than one third compared to the level in the same period in 2009. Lending activity in the euro area also strengthened somewhat in March. Net flows were at EUR 45.8 bn, which is the highest value in the last nine months. More than half came from governments' stronger borrowing from banks, with Ireland and France, in particular, accounting for more than 80% of total net borrowing of euro area countries in March. The decline in the tightening of lending conditions in the euro area stopped in the first quarter this year, according to the ECB. The share of banks that reported a further tightening of lending conditions for loans to enterprises again exceeded the share of those that reported an easing (by 3 p.p.). Banks expect lending conditions to tighten further in the second quarter, but somewhat less than in the last two quarters. Contrary to what was expected at the end of the previous year, the first quarter of 2010 saw a greater tightening of lending conditions for loans to households, with the share of banks reporting a tightening being 10 p.p. higher than the share of those that reported an easing. The data also show that loan demand by enterprises (small, medium-sized and large) slowed in the last three months, but is set to pick up again in the following three months. Household borrowing strengthened significantly in March compared with previous months. Net flows totalled EUR 121.0 m, which is the highest figure since the beginning of the credit crunch in November 2008. More than two thirds of all net flows came from the net borrowing of housing loans, which were at the highest level since the end of 2008. Household borrowing in the form of consumer loans and loans for other purposes strengthened as well, and also reached one of the highest levels in recent months. In the first quarter of this year, households recorded net borrowing of EUR 188.5 m, which is more than in the same period last year by a factor of 3.5. Net flows of corporate and NFI loans recorded a strong decline in March, reaching what was by far the lowest value in the first quarter of this year. Low net borrowing results from lower net corporate borrowing and stronger net repayment of NFI working capital loans. March saw a significant shift in the structure of corporate borrowing by purpose. After enterprises were extensively reprogramming working capital loans into long-term loans for investments at the end of last year, the situation was reversed. After repaying investment loans, enterprises raised working capital loans. Net flows of these loans amounted to as much as EUR 241.0 m, which is the highest level since January 2008, and the maturity structure of sources of finance for enterprises, which had already been bad, thus deteriorated further. Enterprises and NFIs thus borrowed EUR 195.1 m net from domestic banks in the first quarter of 2010, nearly two thirds less than in the comparable period last year. 23 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 09 31. III 10 31. III 10/ 28. II 10 31. III 10/ 31. XII 09 31. III 10/ 31. III 09 Loans total 32,444.95 32,839.38 0.3 1.2 2.6 Enterprises and NFI 23,161.09 23,356.22 0.1 0.8 -0.4 Government 870.95 881.71 -3.1 1.2 28.4 Households 8,412.91 8,601.45 1.4 2.2 9.3 Consumer credits 2,899.95 2,905.73 0.5 0.2 1.8 Lending for house purchase 3,927.13 4,110.19 2.1 4.7 18.7 Other lending 1,585.84 1,585.52 1.4 0.0 2.1 Bank deposits total 14,313.07 14,492.84 -0.3 1.3 3.6 Overnight deposits 5,655.00 5,800.25 0.1 2.6 9.9 Short-term deposits 5,116.28 4,602.76 -4.8 -10.0 -19.9 Long-term deposits 2,874.95 3,373.62 5.5 17.3 44.6 Deposits redeemable at notice 666.84 716.21 0.4 7.4 11.5 Mutual funds 1,856.30 1,964.67 5.5 5.8 38.3 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. reached EUR 21.0 m. While foreign deposits recorded a strong outflow of EUR 509.3 m in January this year, outflows in February were somewhat lower: EUR 86.4 m. In the first two months of this year, outflows thus nearly reached the high figure of net inflows of deposits in the last two months of 2009. In the first two months of 2010, banks repaid foreign loans and deposits in a net amount of EUR 686.3 m, which is more than one tenth more than in the comparable period of 2009. After four successive months of net inflows, household deposits in banks recorded a net outflow of close to EUR 50 m in March. The March net outflow of deposits is, in our view, a consequence of unfavourable labour market movements and a higher inflow of assets to capital markets, which enjoyed relatively high growth rates in March.13 The maturity structure of deposits continued to change, with the net flow of long-term deposits (EUR 174.7 m) recording the highest value since 2005 for the third successive time since data have been available. Net flows of household deposits in banks thus totalled EUR 179.8 m in the first quarter this year, less than 60% of the value recorded in the comparable period last year. Despite further government borrowing in the amount of EUR 1.0 bn in March, the outflow of general government deposits from the banking system strengthened again in March, reaching more than EUR 800 m. The government used a significant portion of assets to discharge matured liabilities (EUR 1.2 bn), spending the rest to finance other general government expenditure and investing some of the assets at the central bank (EUR 250 m). 13 In March, mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded the highest net inflows (EUR 17.1 m) since December 2007. We estimate that part of these assets was also shifted to mutual funds of other administrators and directly to investment in securities. Figure 33: Structure of corporate loans by purpose Other I Loans for gross fixed capital formation I Working capital loans Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Corporate and NFI borrowing abroad has been declining in 2010. Enterprises and NFIs net repaid foreign loans in February, in the amount of EUR 8.5 m, largely as a result of a notably lower drawing of long-term loans (EUR 24.3 m), which was at one of the lowest levels in the last five years; repayment of this type of loans (EUR 19.5 m), however, did not slow as much. Net flows of foreign corporate and NFI loans thus totalled EUR 39.5 m in the first two months of this year, nearly two thirds less than in the comparable period last year. In February, banks net repaid foreign loans for the ninth consecutive month, this time in the amount of EUR 3.6 m, as a result of the net repayment of short-term loans, while the net flow of long-term loans was positive after four months of net repayment and 24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Figure 34: Net inflows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds, and y-o-y change in stock ^^m Mutual funds (left axis) Other deposits (left axis) Long-term time deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) -----Long-term time deposits (right axis) Mutual funds (right axis) 80 60 200 100 0 -100 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance In the first three months of 2010, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 2.6% relative to the same period last year. According to data on paid taxes and social security contributions,14 revenue declined for the third consecutive month in March, totalling EUR 3.0 bn in the first three months of 2010. After dropping by 6.5% in January and 4.8% in February, it declined by 15.7% in March (compared with February). The significant decline in tax inflows largely reflected the first effects of tax assessments according to last year's business results. Revenue from value added tax (VAT) recorded the largest decline (-45.0%), in addition to regular tax assessments also due to the first effects of statutory changes instituting shorter deadlines for VAT refunds (changed from 60 to 21 days). As a result of final tax assessments according to business results for 2009, revenue from corporate income tax also dropped notably (by 37.5% in March compared with February). Revenue from personal income tax also declined for the third consecutive month in March (-4.1%). Prepayments of tax on income from employment increased by 3.3%, but revenue from personal income tax nevertheless declined due to lower revenues from other personal income tax categories, particularly tax on income from entrepreneurial profits, which is refunded based on the business results of the previous year. Revenue from excise duties15 in March was somewhat higher than in February, yet 4.7% lower than in the same month of 2009. Revenues from social security contributions strengthened somewhat (5.1%) in March, increasing by 1.4% y-o-y. Only revenues from the value added tax were higher in the first three months of the year, while revenues from all other taxes and contributions declined. Even if VAT inflows shrank significantly at the beginning of the year due to shorter deadlines for refunds, they were nevertheless 2.8% higher y-o-y in the first three months, particularly due to the effect of a very low base, as these inflows recorded the largest decline due to lower economic activity in the first quarter of 2009. After a long period of growth, revenue from excise duties declined by 1.1% y-o-y in the first three months. Excise duties were otherwise generated at higher rates than in the same period last year, but the quantity of sold excise goods was significantly lower. In the first three months this year, the largest y-o-y decline was recorded for revenue from corporate income tax (-23.8%). Revenue had already declined as a result of the first refunds based on tax assessments taking account of business results for the previous year, of tax relief and a lower tax rate. The new monthly prepayments will be much lower than last year, as tax payers will be able to request a reduction on the basis of deteriorated business performance in the current year and a 1 p.p. lower statutory tax rate (20.0%). Revenue from personal income tax declined by 4.6% y-o-y in the first three months due to lower revenue from tax on income from employment (-1.3%) and particularly revenues from other personal income tax sub-categories (-24.8%), revenues from taxes on income from entrepreneurial profits (tax assessment) and income from property and occasional earnings. Social security contributions dropped by 1.3% in the first three months of 2010. Growth in revenue from social security contributions, which had already been slowing from month to month at the end of last year, turned into a decline in January. In the first three months, the decline was somewhat smaller than on average in the first two. If general government revenue movements seen at the beginning of the year continue, general government revenue will be lower by the end of the year than what was envisaged in the budget documents.16 General government revenue was planned on the basis of assumptions on the movement of the main macroeconomic aggregates from last year's forecasts, but the current macroeconomic conditions are worse than projected. Moreover, the first data on tax assessments according to last year's business performance also show that tax refunds will be higher than foreseen, which, besides less favourable current movements, further reduces current general government revenues and increases the gap between revenues and expenditures. According to the data on the consolidated balance17 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 1.1 bn and general government expenditure EUR 1.3 bn in January 2010. Revenue declined by 4.1% from the level in 2009 (-1.0%, in January last year), while y-o-y expenditure growth in 14 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-March 2010, Public Payments Administration. 15 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 16 Adopted state budget for 2010 and financial plans of other general government budgets. 17 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as the pension and health funds. 25 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2009 2010 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I 10 v mio EUR I 10/ I 09 Revenues - total 14,404.0 41.3 -6.1 1,076.9 -4.1 - Tax revenues 12,955.3 37.1 -7.0 994.1 -7.0 - Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 8.0 -18.5 224.3 -10.1 - Social security contributions 5,161.3 14.8 1.3 424.0 -2.2 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,660.1 13.4 -3.0 331.1 -10.7 - Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 1.7 63.3 26.3 248.0 Expenditure - total 16,365.4 46.9 6.0 1,307.2 16.7 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,912.3 11.2 9.3 317.2 3.9 - Purchases of goods and services 2,506.8 7.2 -0.8 170.4 -0.9 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,024.1 17.3 7.3 495.1 6.9 - Capital expenditure 1,293.3 3.7 3.3 73.6 28.1 - Capital transfers 495.2 1.4 8.1 18.8 47.4 - Payment to the EU budget 439.3 1.3 2.7 43.3 34.8 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,961.4 -5.6 -230.3 Source: MF. Figure 35: Taxes and social security contributions -Personal income tax -Value added tax -----Excise duties -----Social security contributions 500 400 300 100 k K / Source: PPA; calculations by IMAD. January 2010 (16.7%) was even higher than in the same month last year (8.7%). General government revenue declined as a result of the deteriorated macroeconomic environment and the impact of automatic stabilisers, which in addition to the financial effects of measures adopted in 2008 (when the situation was still favourable) and the effects of anti-crisis measures, also contribute to higher general government expenditure (higher expenditure on transfers to the unemployed, in particular). Revenue was also lower as a result of tax reforms passed in previous years. In the economic structure of expenditure, all categories of general government expenditure increased y-o-y in January this year, except expenditure on goods and services, which was down 0.9% y-o-y. Expenditure on subsidies was drastically higher (12 times compared with the level in January 2009 and more than 33% than in December 2009), due to the implementation of anti-crisis measures. January also saw a more than 30% y-o-y increase in capital expenditures and capital transfers, higher interest payments and payments into the EU budget. Expenditure on transfers to individuals and households rose by 6.9% y-o-y in January, or 9.9% not including pensions, with expenditure on transfers to the unemployed (83.1%) increasing most significantly due to deteriorating labour market conditions. Growth in expenditure on pensions slowed towards the end of last year. Expenditure on pensions in January was 5.3% Figure 36: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure Revenues 2009 «Revenues 2010 » Expenditures 2009 ■ Expenditures 2010 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 0 1500 1000 0 26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 Current Economic Trends higher y-o-y. Growth in expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures slowed significantly in January and was at 3.9% y-o-y (last year: 13.7%). The gap between general government revenue and expenditure totalled EUR 230 m in January 2010 alone. The state budget deficit climbed to EUR 220 m. The total balance of local government budgets also recorded a deficit (EUR 17.7 m), while the health fund had a small surplus in the amount of EUR 5.4 m. The pension fund was roughly balanced, thanks to the transfer of EUR 112 m from the state budget (27.6% higher than a year earlier). Slovenia's net budgetary position relative to the EU budget was positive in March due to higher receipts from the EU budget. Refunds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies from direct subsidy payments in agriculture increased in particular, representing 83% of all refunds in March. There were also some receipts from structural funds (15%), most of which was under the operational programme for strengthening regional infrastructure development potential and some from the European Social Fund. Slovenia did not receive any funds from the Cohesion Fund. In March, Slovenia's payments to the EU budget were EUR 47.4 m lower than refunds, which improved Slovenia's net negative position against the EU budget to EUR 11.6 m in the first three months of this year. Slovenia paid EUR 150.5 m to the EU budget in the first quarter of this year, which is more than one third of the funds Slovenia is to pay to the EU budget this year, while it received somewhat more than one tenth of the level envisaged in the state budget. Figure 37: Planned and absorbed EU funds Structural policy Common Agricultural Policy Cohesion policy Internal policies Pre-accession EU funds ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 ■ Total funds received in 2010 (Jan-Mar) Total funds received in 2009 (Jan-Dec) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. selected topics Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 29 Selected Topics Prices in the agro-food supply chain After surging in 2007 and 2008 in all three links of the agro-food supply chain, food and beverage prices dropped significantly in the first link and somewhat less in the second link last year, but increased somewhat further in the third. Relatively strong price rises in food and nonalcoholic beverages in 2007 and 2008 made a significant contribution to total consumer price growth. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 2.9 p.p. to total consumer price growth (7.7%) in these two years. Significant price rises were first recorded at the beginning of the agro-food supply chain, and then also in the other two links. As on European and world markets, growth in prices of agricultural products in Slovenia was attributable to various causes. Some were temporary (such as extremely low global reserves, bad weather conditions and consequently lower output in exporting countries), while the others were long-term or structural in nature; for example, increased demand in less-developed countries related to economic growth and extensive trading in world stock markets. According to the forecasts by international institutions, food prices are projected to fluctuate widely in the following years. In 2009 we expected a sizeable decline, but it only happened in prices of agricultural commodities, which dropped roughly to the 2007 level, while the response of prices in the other two links of the chain was much less vigorous. We may, however, still be in for major changes, in view of the results of some European studies indicating that prices respond with a lag of several months, first at producers and then in trade.18 Figure 38: Prices by sector of agro-food supply chain and the CPI together in 2000-2009 CPI,total -Producer prices of agricultural products -Food, beverages and tobacco, producer prices in food-processing industry, domestic market -----CPI, food and non-alcoholic beverages Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Producer prices of agricultural products dropped last year roughly by the same amount as they increased in the previous year, with large fluctuations especially in prices of crops. Producer prices of agricultural products dropped by 14.6% last year, after increasing by 14.5% in 2008. Broken down by structure, prices of crop products, as well as prices of animals and animal products dropped, the former more than the latter (by 19.9% last year, after three consecutive years of extremely strong growth). Prices in all groups of agricultural products dropped, most notably prices of industrial plants and cereals (the former more than one half and the latter one third). Prices in animal output recorded a smaller decline, 11.7%, after somewhat lower growth rates in the previous period last year. Prices of animal products declined more than prices of animals; for example, prices of milk by as much as one fifth. Prices of agricultural products rose by 25.4%, on average, in the period since 2000, with high growth in prices of crop products again standing out despite last year's fairly steep decline. This growth was at 38.2%, and was extremely high, particularly in industrial plants. Price growth in animal output increased by 19.1% in this period, most notably in poultry. Prices of food and beverages in the food-processing industry also dropped last year, but less notably than at the beginning of the agro-food chain. The total price decline in the group of food, beverages and tobacco in the food-processing industry on the domestic market amounted to 2.6% last year, after 10.8% growth in 2008. Prices declined in both groups, prices of food 1 p.p. more than prices of beverages. In the whole analysed period since 2000, prices were dropping only in 2009. In the period since 2000, the total growth in prices of food and beverages in the food-processing industry was 53.9%, which was the highest growth in the agro-food supply chain in this period. Despite declines in the first two links of the chain, final prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased slightly last year. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages in the consumer price index recorded 0.6% total growth last year (food prices 0.4%, non-alcoholic beverages 2.0%). In the group of food products, fish prices rose most notably, more than one tenth, despite significant growth in previous years. Prices also rose in the group of oils and fats, which had increased by more than one third in 2008, but not in the group of milk, dairy products and eggs, where they had surged by nearly one quarter in the year previously. Total final prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 49.5% in the period since 2000. Relatively high growth rates were recorded in just every group, particularly for prices of oil and fats, fish, bread and cereals. As the latter group accounts for the greatest share in the structure, it was precisely these prices' growth that had a significant impact on the total increase in final prices of food. 18 More on this in the Commission of the European Communities (2009): A better functioning food supply chain in Europe. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/articles/structural_reforms/ article16028_en.htm. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 30 Selected Topics Table 10: Prices rises by sector of agro-food supply chain in 2000-2009 Average annual growth rates. in % 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009/2000 Total agricultural products 8.6 1.8 2.8 -2.0 0.4 5.8 8.3 14.5 -14.6 25.4 of which: Crop products 6.6 7.4 6.9 -8.9 -1.7 13.9 17.1 16.6 -19.0 38.2 - cereals -3.2 4.4 11.1 -10.6 -15.1 11.0 58.8 -6.4 -33.0 -5.7 - industrial plants 7.0 -4.1 9.5 -0.3 4.7 5.1 108.7 85.4 -53.5 121.7 - fodder plants 38.4 -23.4 87.3 -28.2 -11.0 3.9 62.2 -16.3 -7.2 65.9 - vegetables and horticultural products 23.8 1.0 18.2 -24.0 3.4 15.7 3.6 7.8 -4.9 42.7 - potatoes -0.9 12.1 40.8 -20.8 -37.6 107.2 9.6 -14.8 -21.5 17.3 - fruit 4.2 19.7 5.4 -12.9 -2.0 11.3 11.0 30.4 -19.9 44.8 - wine 5.7 3.0 -0.2 2.0 3.0 11.4 12.7 3.4 -8.1 36.2 - olive oil 2.3 -1.1 0.7 -6.5 -9.4 -8.0 0.0 14.7 0.0 -9.0 Animals and animal products 9.6 -0.9 0.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 3.2 13.5 -11.7 19.1 - animals for slaughter 11.1 -3.9 -0.5 4.8 3.1 2.3 1.5 11.5 -3.6 27.9 - animal products 8.0 2.2 1.7 -0.5 -0.4 1.3 5.0 15.7 -19.7 10.0 Food, beverages and tobacco in food-processing industry 11.7 8.5 4.0 4.0 1.6 2.3 4.7 10.8 -2.6 53.9 of which: Food 13.1 9.1 3.7 4.3 1.5 2.0 4.9 12.2 -2.8 58.1 Beverages 8.0 7.0 4.9 3.9 1.0 3.3 3.9 4.8 -1.8 40.5 Food and non-alcoholic beverages in CPI 9.2 7.5 4.6 0.5 -0.8 2.3 7.8 10.1 0.6 49.5 of which: Food 9.8 7.5 4.6 0.4 -0.7 2.1 8.1 10.7 0.4 51.0 - bread and cereals 13.4 13.4 6.5 2.5 -0.9 2.9 6.1 11.5 1.4 71.7 - meat 13.4 4.0 1.8 -0.4 -2.1 1.4 5.5 5.7 1.4 34.2 - fish 10.8 8.7 5.1 3.5 0.9 4.3 4.4 11.0 10.1 75.9 - milk, dairy products, eggs 4.5 7.8 1.4 -0.7 -2.0 0.5 11.6 23.5 -1.7 51.4 - oils and fats 2.4 20.3 6.7 -1.6 -1.8 1.3 4.1 34.2 2.4 84.1 - fruit, fresh and processed 12.8 0.7 4.3 1.9 3.5 -1.9 13.0 12.0 -5.0 47.4 - vegetables, fresh and processed 5.9 6.1 9.5 -4.8 0.2 10.7 17.1 -1.6 -1.2 47.9 - sugar and confectionery 5.2 8.7 5.3 5.2 1.2 0.6 2.6 5.4 2.3 42.7 - other food products 3.8 6.6 8.4 0.2 -1.3 0.6 3.0 6.7 3.5 35.7 Non-alcoholic beverages 3.8 6.6 5.2 1.3 -1.8 3.5 4.9 4.1 2.0 33.5 - coffee, tea and cocoa 1.7 3.5 5.5 -0.2 -1.6 3.6 3.9 2.7 1.7 22.6 - mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 4.9 8.1 5 2 -1.9 3.5 5.4 4.7 2.1 38.9 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2010 31 Selected Topics Last year saw higher growth in final prices of food and nonalcoholic beverages in the EU as a whole than in Slovenia, while in the total period since 2000, price movements in the EU were similar as in Slovenia in all three links of the chain, only at a much lower level. Last year, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages in the HICP increased by 0.5% in Slovenia and 1.0% in the EU as a whole (1.6% in Italy, 0.3% in Austria, 3.8% in Hungary), but total price growth in the analysed period since 2000 in Slovenia was much higher (46.6%; 31.1% in the EU as a whole). In the intermediate link of the chain, i.e. food processing, price movements were similar last year, as prices in Slovenia dropped by 2.6% and in the EU average by 2.8%. However, there were greater differences in terms of these prices' growth in the period since 2000: 53.8% in Slovenia, but only 22.9%, on average, in the EU.19 After the surge in the previous period, food and beverage prices are also a main concern in the European Union. The European Commission stresses the utmost importance of sustainable relationships between stakeholders of the food supply chain and the urgent need to eliminate price imbalances between individual links. It is also essential to increase transparency in price formation and eliminate the inequalities in bargaining power of all participants in the chain, where the adoption of a code of good practice might be of help. The inclusion of producers in voluntary agricultural producer organisations is also vital. Member states also agree that the functioning of the food market should not be left solely to market principles and stress that all measures are important for its stabilisation, as the fluctuations of food and beverage prices are expected Figure 39: Prices by sector of the agro-food supply chain in Slovenia and in the EU average in 2000-2009 -Food and non-alcoholic beverages in HICP, EU average -Food and non-alcoholic beverages in HICP, Slovenia ----Food, beverages and tobacco in food-processing industry, EU average ----Food, beverages and tobacco in food-processing industry, Slovenia -------Producer prices of agricultural products, EU average -------Producer prices of agricultural products, Slovenia Source: Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. 19 Data on 2009 rises of agricultural producer prices for the EU-27 average have not yet been published, but data for individual countries are already available. Compared with the neighbouring EU countries, prices in Slovenia fell the deepest: 14.6% in Slovenia, 8.9% in Italy, 11.9% in Austria and 9.6% in Hungary. However, Hungary was the only of these countries to see higher price growth than Slovenia in the period since 2005. to continue and even become greater in the future, particularly due to further liberalisation and globalisation, population growth and a consequent increase in demand for food, dependency on energy, but also the expected negative effects of climate changes on agricultural output. statistical appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 35 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Spring forecast 2010 forecast forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 415 518 618 315 -718 016 214 311 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,135 34,894 34,934 36,286 38,202 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,367 17,085 17,153 17,778 18,681 GDP per capita (PPS)1 19,700 20,700 22,100 22,800 - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 88 88 89 91 - Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 28,506 30,683 33,854 36,278 34,381 34,262 35,320 37,104 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 28,362 30,467 33,627 35,993 34,186 34,293 35,224 36,905 Rate of registered unemployment 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1* 11.1 11.6 11.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9* 7.2 7.6 7.3 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.7 4.2 3.7 0.7 -5.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.3 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 10.6 12.5 13.7 2.9 -15.6 4.3 6.3 7.4 Exports of goods 10.3 13.4 13.8 0.0 -15.2 4.7 6.4 7.4 Exports of services 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.9 2.9 6.1 7.6 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 6.6 12.2 16.3 2.9 -17.9 4.1 6.0 6.7 Imports of goods 6.8 12.7 15.8 2.6 -19.1 3.9 6.0 6.7 Imports of services 5.5 8.8 19.7 4.9 -10.2 4.9 6.0 6.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -498 -771 -1,646 -2,287 -340 -638 -1,095 -1,249 As a per cent share relative to GDP -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.2 -1.0 -1.8 -3.0 -3.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 40,4385- - - As a per cent share relative to GDP 71.4 77.6 100.8 105.0 114.7 - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.364 1.358 1.358 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.0 -1.4 -0.5 1.7 2.3 As a % of GDP4 54.2 52.8 52.7 52.7 54.8 54.9 54.4 53.9 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.1 0.6 0.2 0.8 As a % of GDP4 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.2 20.6 20.6 20.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 9.9 11.7 7.7 -21.6 0.5 3.5 4.5 As a % of GDP4 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.9 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos, estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64); 5end February 2010; ^According to preliminary calculations by IMAD, based on the quarterly data by SORS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 36 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 5 6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.2 2.5 -16.9 5.3 6.4 8.4 3.3 -7.7 -17.9 -24.2 -18.1 -6.7 12.9 1.7 14.8 3.8 6.8 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 5.5 -2.9 -7.3 13.8 3.5 7.1 -1.2 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 18.8 3.6 9.5 -4.4 5.6 C Manufacturing 8.5 2.6 -18.1 7.2 6.9 8.7 3.7 -8.4 -19.7 -25.5 -19.2 -7.5 13.6 2.0 15.6 4.2 6.7 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -11.1 2.1 -6.7 -15.9 -2.3 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -6.0 1.2 -1.2 8.1 4.2 12.2 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 18.5 18.5 15.7 0.2 32.5 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 40.5 21.4 22.8 13.8 15.4 Buildings 14.3 14.3 11.5 4.2 37.8 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 44.8 18.6 10.5 3.1 8.9 Civil engineering 21.9 21.9 18.9 -2.6 28.0 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 36.8 23.8 32.4 21.7 20.4 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 13.4 18.4 -9.2 19.1 26.7 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 - - - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 6.8 -2.3 -24.2 -3.7 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 - - - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 9.7 10.1 -12.8 11.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.1 -15.5 -15.7 -9.7 23.8 7.2 17.4 11.8 10.3 Real turnover in retail trade 6.1 12.2 -10.4 9.6 14.0 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.5 -11.3 -13.6 -10.8 23.8 7.0 16.2 19.1 11.4 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 19.2 6.2 -21.5 17.9 22.0 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.2 -7.8 26.3 9.4 22.0 -1.1 9.0 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 16.1 17.1 -21.4 15.2 20.7 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 30.1 12.3 31.9 20.7 19.2 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 7.0 1.8 -1.5 5.5 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.3 -3.8 1.7 -3.6 9.0 0.5 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.2 2.3 11.7 -1.6 11.7 -8.5 8.5 10.5 -2.1 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 8.4 -0.5 -6.6 5.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -11.0 -7.9 -4.7 -5.4 5.6 8.9 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 2.3 -2.8 -12.1 2.9 -1.8 -1.6 -3.1 -4.4 -9.6 -12.6 -19.3 -3.2 3.6 -5.7 -2.5 2.9 -5.0 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 492.2 529.9 449.3 160.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 128.9 39.3 40.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 13 1 -22 11 10 7 3 -16 -25 -24 -20 -17 10 10 10 7 5 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 12 -5 -23 10 7 1 -6 -23 -30 -27 -21 -13 6 6 4 1 -2 - in construction 17 3 -49 13 14 11 4 -17 -41 -52 -53 -50 12 18 13 11 8 - in services 29 22 -13 26 30 26 25 7 -14 -19 -10 -9 31 31 29 26 24 - in retail trade 27 23 -14 30 28 29 26 9 -16 -18 -11 -9 27 32 29 30 27 Consumer confidence indicator -11 -20 -30 -18 -19 -16 -16 -29 -39 -31 -23 -25 -20 -15 -12 -18 -19 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 37 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2010 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 2.0 -2.0 9.3 0.5 -11.7 -13.2 -16.9 -21.3 -15.7 -29.4 -21.9 -21.1 -20.5 -17.2 -16.5 -19.2 -1.4 5.0 -8.4 -0.8 - - 34.4 -19.2 14.4 -1.0 -14.7 18.8 -6.9 -3.8 -9.2 -21.7 -10.2 -7.9 4.5 13.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -6.0 -16.7 - - 1.7 -1.2 9.8 0.8 -12.5 -15.4 -18.8 -23.4 -17.0 -31.1 -23.3 -21.9 -21.8 -19.1 -16.8 -20.5 -2.2 5.7 -8.1 0.0 - - 0.2 -5.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 -5.1 -1.3 -2.7 -9.5 -4.7 -11.3 -9.6 -7.3 -11.9 -6.1 -5.1 -6.8 -9.7 -3.2 - - 15.9 8.6 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 -28.7 - - 0.2 10.7 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 -20.5 - - 28.0 7.0 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 -37.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 -6.2 -15.5 -8.6 -16.7 -17.1 -12.5 -14.5 -14.7 -17.9 -12.7 -10.7 -5.6 -3.9 - - 11.4 13.4 10.8 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.3 -13.3 -5.2 -9.3 -14.9 -9.5 -11.3 -13.0 -16.4 -12.6 -13.2 -6.7 -7.9 -3.8 - 9.0 12.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 -27.6 -24.5 -20.4 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.2 -20.2 -24.3 -15.7 -6.8 -0.9 6.7 1.0 - 19.2 22.9 11.2 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.4 -16.9 -19.2 -13.3 -25.0 -25.3 -21.0 -26.6 -23.8 -26.7 -22.4 -18.1 -10.8 -7.0 - - -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 3.6 -6.1 -6.9 3.6 -11.4 -1.8 -0.8 4.9 0.2 3.3 -3.9 -8.5 4.5 4.0 - -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 9.6 -1.5 10.7 4.3 -2.2 4.4 13.3 12.3 7.7 9.9 -1.5 -10.0 5.2 6.0 - -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -12.5 -20.5 3.0 -16.9 -6.3 -10.3 0.1 -4.1 -1.8 -6.4 -6.9 3.9 0.0 - -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 -4.3 -7.6 -7.4 -12.3 -9.1 -10.6 -13.4 -13.4 -10.7 -8.7 -12.2 -12.9 -12.6 -12.0 6.8 - - 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 - - 4 4 2 -5 -20 -23 -25 -24 -26 -27 -24 -22 -22 -21 -17 -18 -16 -16 -12 -12 -11 -8 -4 -5 -8 -13 -27 -29 -31 -29 -30 -29 -27 -25 -24 -21 -17 -15 -13 -11 -6 -6 -3 0 7 1 3 -4 -17 -30 -38 -40 -46 -53 -48 -54 -50 -56 -54 -54 -47 -49 -55 -55 -60 -62 25 27 24 19 4 -3 -9 -14 -19 -24 -17 -15 -12 -12 -7 -8 -9 -10 -1 -6 -7 -4 29 25 24 25 5 -4 -13 -14 -21 -18 -17 -19 -16 -9 -8 -10 -10 -7 -10 -8 -6 2 -18 -19 -12 -18 -34 -35 -43 -37 -37 -41 -29 -23 -26 -27 -16 -26 -24 -26 -26 -24 -26 -24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 38 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 5 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 925.3 942.6 944.5 934.2 937.7 940.9 942.5 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 854.0 879.3 858.2 865.4 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 40.4 39.7 37.9 39.2 40.8 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 40.8 40.8 39.9 39.9 In industry, construction 321.9 330.4 306.9 326.8 327.1 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 327.1 328.5 330.0 331.2 Of which: in manufacturing 223.6 222.4 199.8 224.2 224.0 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 224.0 224.2 224.1 223.9 in construction 78.4 87.9 86.8 82.5 83.2 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 83.1 84.2 85.8 87.1 In services 491.6 509.1 513.4 499.4 503.0 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 503.1 504.9 506.8 508.6 Of which: in public administration 50.3 51.0 51.5 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 50.9 50.7 50.9 50.9 in education, health-services, social work 108.8 111.1 113.8 109.8 110.7 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.0 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 766.0 789.9 767.4 777.8 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 In enterprises and organisations 696.1 717.6 699.4 706.2 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 By those self-employed 69.9 72.3 67.9 71.6 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.9 89.4 90.8 87.6 89.6 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 71.3 63.2 86.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 Female 39.1 33.4 42.4 37.3 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 By age: under 26 11.9 9.1 13.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 aged over 50 22.2 21.9 26.2 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.9 Unskilled 28.0 25.4 34.1 26.9 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 For more than 1 year 36.5 32.3 31.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 Those receiving benefits 16.6 14.4 27.4 14.7 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 7.7 6.7 9.1 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 Male 6.2 5.6 8.3 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 Female 9.6 8.1 10.2 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 21.5 13.7 -5.2 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -0.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.7 12.5 17.0 7.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 Redundancies 52.5 53.0 90.5 12.9 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 Registered unemployed who found employment 49.1 41.7 48.6 10.9 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.0 26.1 28.5 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 15.3 24.6 -12.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 7.0 2.1 1.9 -4.8 -4.4 -5.0 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 Retirements2 20.7 22.6 24.7 5.9 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 6.7 7.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 Deaths2 2.5 2.6 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 38.0 22.6 39.9 9.9 8.9 3.3 4.5 6.0 4.1 13.2 10.6 12.1 1.7 0.1 -0.4 1.7 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 20.2 20.0 13.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 14.0 13.0 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 For a fixed term, in % 76.5 74.5 78.1 74.4 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 60.2 81.1 86.6 65.8 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 As % of labour force 6.5 8.6 9.2 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 NEW JOBS 160.0 162.7 111.4 41.5 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 13.0 13.4 15.4 13.1 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 39 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2010 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 332.6 332.5 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 224.0 222.7 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 88.4 89.7 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 509.6 508.1 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 51.1 50.9 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 110.9 109.7 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.4 -4.1 -5.7 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -2.7 -1.2 -1.9 -1.3 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.0 4.4 2.7 -1.1 1.3 1.7 1.1 3.9 3.7 5.6 2.2 2.7 5.8 5.7 6.1 0.3 -2.0 3.8 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 40 Statistical Appendix WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 11 12 1 2 3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 5.9 8.3 3.4 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 7.1 6.5 6.1 9.3 8.0 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8.3 9.1 -0.2 11.4 10.3 9.3 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 16.1 10.2 8.3 16.1 6.7 B Mining and quarrying 6.4 13.4 0.9 12.6 9.4 13.8 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 9.4 20.6 5.2 9.7 13.3 C Manufacturing 7.0 7.5 0.8 8.6 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 9.4 8.2 6.0 10.2 8.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 6.2 9.5 3.8 11.1 9.3 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 9.9 11.8 8.4 10.2 9.3 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.1 7.8 2.0 10.0 8.3 9.1 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 12.6 8.5 7.2 9.8 8.1 F Constrution 6.6 7.5 1.0 6.7 7.7 9.6 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 7.7 5.5 7.5 8.8 6.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.6 7.7 1.9 7.5 7.5 9.0 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 8.5 6.9 6.5 8.8 7.1 H Transportation and storage 6.0 8.4 0.7 7.7 8.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 8.6 8.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 I Accommodation and food service activities 5.3 8.3 1.6 7.8 9.3 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 8.8 7.5 9.8 10.4 7.9 J Information and communication 5.7 7.3 1.4 4.6 6.8 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 -2.6 10.1 3.3 6.4 10.5 K Financial and insurance activities 7.4 6.0 -0.7 7.6 8.6 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 8.0 1.8 7.4 7.9 10.6 L Real estate activities 7.0 6.0 1.9 5.6 6.8 8.6 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 7.6 3.9 6.3 8.3 5.8 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 7.0 8.4 2.1 8.9 9.7 8.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 10.0 8.3 9.2 10.5 9.3 N Administrative and support service activities 7.5 9.6 1.8 9.8 8.6 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 10.2 9.6 8.7 9.5 7.7 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.1 12.2 5.9 6.4 11.1 10.8 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 6.5 6.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 P Education 3.9 7.0 3.6 2.4 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 2.6 2.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 Q Human health and social work activities 3.1 12.0 12.0 2.1 5.5 4.3 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 1.8 2.6 3.1 7.2 6.1 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.6 5.3 3.9 3.0 2.4 5.8 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.9 -2.8 S Other service activities 3.3 8.2 1.3 5.1 6.6 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 7.4 4.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.3 2.8 0.7 3.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 Real (relative producer prices)2 2.2 0.8 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.0 -0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4 USD/EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.449 1.500 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.468 1.457 1.472 1.475 1.553 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 41 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2010 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 2.2 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.8 3.8 1.6 -1.1 -1.8 -2.0 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 Slovenian Economic Mirror, March 2010 42 Statistical Appendix PRICES 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 5 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 3.6 5.7 0.9 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.4 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 7.8 10.1 0.6 12.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 13.9 14.6 13.5 12.3 12.1 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.5 3.2 6.7 6.5 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 Clothing and footwear 2.1 4.4 -0.6 2.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 2.9 4.8 6.7 7.0 4.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas 2.6 9.7 -0.3 7.6 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 11.7 9.6 10.4 9.3 11.4 Furnishings, household equipment 4.5 5.8 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 4.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.1 2.9 4.0 0.4 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.9 -1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 Transport 0.3 1.9 -3.0 1.6 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 Communications 0.3 0.6 -4.1 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 1.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.5 Recreation and culture 3.6 4.4 3.0 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 4.1 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.4 Education 1.9 5.2 3.4 3.6 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.8 7.0 7.0 4.6 Catering services 7.3 9.6 4.4 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 9.2 9.4 9.4 10.1 9.9 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 HCPI 3.8 5.5 0.9 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 2.6 4.6 1.9 3.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 4.9 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.2 3.8 -1.3 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 Domestic market 5.5 5.6 -0.4 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 6.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.1 Non-domestic market 3.0 2.2 -2.2 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 euro area 5.1 2.2 -3.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 non-euro area -0.5 2.1 0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 Import price indices 4.0 1.3 -3.3 0.1 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.6 12.4 -12.3 6.2 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 12.4 12.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 Oil products -0.9 11.7 -12.0 7.4 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 14.0 14.1 16.4 12.6 15.3 Basic utilities -2.3 0.6 3.6 8.4 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 Transport & communications 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other controlled prices 2.9 1.8 4.9 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 Direct control - total 3.1 8.6 -6.9 5.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 9.3 8.8 10.4 8.5 10.8 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 43 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2010 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.7 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - - - 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 44 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 3 4 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -',646 -2,287 -340 -692 -425 -486 -642 -733 -267 '42 -'20 -95 -''7 -'30 -'20 -20' Goods' -',666 -2,650 -62' -664 -489 -668 -75' -743 -'49 -'7 -208 -246 -'34 -'66 -'60 -285 Exports '9,798 20,048 '6,203 5,062 5,084 5,349 5,038 4,577 3,940 4,072 3,960 4,23' ',7'0 ',757 ',866 ',7'6 Imports 21,464 22,698 '6,825 5,726 5,573 6,0'7 5,789 5,320 4,090 4,090 4,'68 4,477 ',844 ',923 2,026 2,002 Services ',047 ',609 ',022 '67 334 475 487 3'4 236 302 292 '93 '06 ''8 '52 '70 Exports 4,'45 5,040 4,3'9 ',0'8 ',053 ',299 ',480 ',209 927 ',052 ',279 ',060 335 378 422 433 Imports 3,098 3,43' 3,297 85' 7'9 824 993 895 692 75' 988 867 229 260 270 263 Income -789 -',039 -65' -'35 -'50 -259 -394 -236 -2'6 -'54 -'55 -'25 -4' -69 -82 -70 Receipts ','69 ',264 982 343 266 326 335 336 245 242 234 262 88 90 ''' '06 Expenditure ',957 2,303 ',633 478 4'6 585 729 572 46' 396 389 387 '29 '59 '93 '77 Current transfers -239 -206 -90 -60 -'20 -33 '6 -69 -'37 '2 -49 84 -48 -'3 -3' -'5 Receipts 94' 783 87' 278 '44 '90 229 220 ''9 247 '5' 353 54 58 38 58 Expenditure ','80 989 96' 338 264 223 2'3 289 257 235 200 269 '02 7' 69 73 Capital and financial account ',920 2,395 32 982 435 74' 632 588 -'76 -29 72 '65 228 '2' '92 346 Capital account -52 -43 -11 -8 -8 3 -8 -30 -5 4' -4 -43 0 2 5 -3 Financial account ',972 2,438 42 990 443 738 640 6'8 -'72 -70 76 208 228 '20 '88 349 Direct investment -2'0 38' -673 56 ''4 -'42 '28 28' -'39 -3'2 -89 -'32 -'3 95 -49 -9 Domestic abroad -',3'7 -932 -625 -256 -'25 -450 -236 -'22 -'34 -324 -80 -86 -25 -68 -'60 -'28 Foreign in Slovenia ','06 ',3'3 -48 3'2 239 308 364 402 -5 '3 -'0 -46 '' '63 ''' ''9 Portfolio investment -2,255 575 4,656 -806 305 -','52 '65 ',257 873 ','49 2,326 308 692 -403 -452 -457 Financial derivatives -'5 46 -9 '2 30 4 5 6 -23 '2 '2 -9 '0 '0 ' ' Other investment 4,3'3 ',4'5 -4,099 ',665 75 ',947 340 -947 -996 -964 -2,'60 2' -497 536 602 797 Assets -4,74' -562 -3'4 -574 -978 -'87 388 2'5 766 -262 -',073 254 -960 -'65 384 '94 Commercial credits -400 -'43 254 '36 -5'8 -'70 -9 554 5' '6 -49 236 -226 -2'2 -25 -98 Loans -',895 -54' -2 -627 5' -442 '58 -308 70 -73 -39 40 -44 -80 '7 -205 Currency and deposits -2,454 ''7 -493 -85 -502 385 258 -23 637 -207 -997 74 -684 '45 346 506 Other assets 7 5 -74 ' -9 40 -'9 -7 7 2 '2 -95 -5 -'8 46 -9 Liabilities 9,054 ',977 -3,785 2,239 ',054 2,'34 -48 -','62 -',76' -702 -',087 -234 463 702 2'8 603 Commercial credits 499 -67 -520 266 '79 309 -'9 -537 -382 -89 26 -76 '05 '55 93 220 Loans 3,84' ',868 -2,9'5 ',345 644 ',472 242 -490 -5'7 -',320 -'02 -975 2'7 3'' -'73 5'2 Deposits 4,727 '90 -3'8 6'3 253 346 -272 -'37 -858 700 -983 822 '50 236 294 -'28 Other liabilities -'3 -'3 -32 '6 -22 7 2 ' -5 6 -28 -5 -'0 0 4 -2 International reserves2 '40 2' '67 64 -8' 80 ' 2' ''4 46 -'3 20 37 -''8 85 '6 Statistical error -273 -'08 308 -290 -'0 -255 '0 '46 444 -''3 48 -70 -''' 9 -72 -'45 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods ',936 2,24' ',783 505 523 576 598 544 443 46' 407 472 '78 '99 '93 '92 Intermediate goods '0,436 '0,760 8,'27 2,597 2,752 2,893 2,730 2,385 ',982 2,004 2,036 2,'05 934 927 '0'5 925 Consumer goods 7,035 6,808 6,'44 ',850 ',753 ',8'7 ',648 ',590 ',474 ',569 ',48' ',620 580 6'2 635 578 Import of investment goods 3,03' 3,44' 2,272 882 773 928 862 878 582 550 5'9 622 252 274 3'6 3'2 Intermediate goods '2,875 '3,735 9,804 3,348 3,4'7 3,668 3,543 3,'07 2,380 2,332 2,454 2,637 ','45 ','56 ',225 ',222 Consumer goods 5,60' 5,870 4,99' ',506 ',459 ',520 ',475 ',4'6 ','95 ',26' ',25' ',284 474 5'9 5'8 503 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 45 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2010 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 -165 -347 -157 -138 -236 -164 -334 -73 -123 -71 12 46 83 -33 -107 20 -57 11 -48 -12 -121 -223 -263 -298 -190 -266 -180 -297 -46 -34 -69 -65 -4 52 -45 -155 -9 -40 -68 -138 -1 -78 1,767 1,809 1,339 1,891 1,841 1,532 1,204 1,216 1,296 1,429 1,306 1,335 1,431 1,403 1,068 1,489 1,504 1,476 1,250 1,231 1,330 1,990 2,071 1,637 2,080 2,107 1,711 1,501 1,262 1,330 1,498 1,371 1,340 1,379 1,448 1,222 1,498 1,545 1,544 1,388 1,232 1,408 152 124 166 196 149 107 58 91 58 87 101 106 95 60 124 108 84 58 51 78 65 444 516 487 478 446 372 392 310 280 337 346 346 360 439 450 391 368 320 372 295 281 291 391 320 281 296 264 334 220 223 250 245 240 265 379 325 283 283 262 321 218 217 -107 -214 -50 -130 -83 -82 -71 -79 -72 -65 -57 -53 -44 -51 -50 -54 -47 -43 -35 -59 -59 108 111 115 109 108 105 124 86 80 79 78 81 83 79 77 78 83 84 95 73 72 215 325 165 239 191 187 195 165 153 144 135 134 127 130 127 132 130 127 130 132 130 12 5 25 -14 -36 -9 -24 -39 -74 -24 33 -2 -20 3 -27 -24 -54 63 74 -30 -49 93 64 106 58 54 80 86 29 40 50 112 75 60 69 45 38 54 140 159 51 74 81 59 82 73 90 89 110 68 114 74 78 77 80 66 72 62 108 77 84 81 124 202 411 187 34 -130 279 439 43 -109 -110 23 90 -142 81 -78 70 92 24 50 56 69 1 -6 -1 -1 4 39 -73 -8 -2 5 -2 -2 44 -3 -2 1 1 25 -68 -7 -2 201 417 188 35 -134 239 512 51 -107 -115 25 91 -186 83 -76 69 91 -1 117 63 72 -84 125 51 -48 -40 85 235 48 -57 -130 -46 -180 -86 -50 57 -96 -47 -48 -38 23 -41 -163 -116 -34 -86 -81 -9 -32 -29 -48 -57 -97 -209 -18 10 -8 -81 -64 21 -43 -14 -76 78 241 85 38 41 94 267 78 -10 -73 51 29 -67 -60 66 -15 17 -69 5 37 35 -243 134 -207 238 387 658 212 410 559 -96 1,004 263 -118 862 -216 1,681 -13 -70 391 1,349 -460 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 -10 -13 0 4 8 -1 -2 6 8 0 1 -10 0 0 548 229 238 -127 -516 -489 58 -394 -682 81 -932 -62 30 -673 48 -1,535 143 104 -227 -1,360 566 -766 112 -79 355 -435 19 632 83 595 88 -207 -811 756 -652 697 -1,117 274 -342 322 160 61 -47 16 147 -172 -43 132 465 149 -45 -52 28 48 -60 -5 75 -119 -43 -21 300 -22 -39 -254 255 -377 280 -286 73 -95 -174 218 27 35 -49 -59 -57 59 -41 -1 29 12 -27 22 -468 -164 153 269 -115 -191 283 97 413 127 -269 -808 870 -590 556 -963 315 -352 110 216 73 3 5 -2 -22 9 5 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 3 2 -99 -6 5 1,314 117 317 -482 -81 -508 -574 -477 -1,277 -7 -725 749 -726 -21 -649 -418 -131 446 -549 -1,520 504 -4 38 -116 59 -67 -182 -287 -378 -3 -1 -36 -33 -20 5 -91 113 78 77 -231 -81 72 1,133 112 228 -98 37 -483 -44 -101 28 -444 -329 348 -1,339 14 -69 -47 -175 19 -819 -42 -14 180 -40 206 -438 -51 159 -244 5 -1,303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 5 6 0 -5 0 -2 2 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 -8 0 -4 -1 -21 -73 104 -30 33 -17 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 -37 -64 -30 104 366 -115 -105 30 232 181 -35 -136 58 -47 185 -90 -35 -34 -1 -44 52 191 203 152 243 201 185 158 128 152 162 171 141 149 147 110 150 168 154 150 112 N/A 953 976 756 998 981 816 589 646 639 696 647 655 702 724 555 757 786 735 584 659 N/A 603 607 411 629 638 511 441 429 491 555 479 524 567 517 392 571 540 577 503 451 N/A 300 294 226 342 289 279 310 172 161 248 189 186 174 169 153 196 218 205 199 119 N/A 1,221 1,291 1,029 1,222 1,309 1,017 782 758 803 820 762 758 812 859 710 885 910 933 794 782 N/A 500 520 404 551 544 441 431 353 389 453 437 416 407 434 379 438 445 432 408 355 N/A Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 46 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 67 68 160 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 66 66 67 Central government (S. 1311) 2,367 2,162 3497 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 2,392 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 118 212 376 112 118 123 124 124 128 129 133 136 143 178 Households (S. 14, 15) 6,818 7,827 8413 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 7,133 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 18,105 21,149 21682 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 18,938 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,305 2,815 2703 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,411 2,494 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 2,401 3,666 5301 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 2,444 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 26,555 32,113 34730 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 27,768 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 In foreign currency 1,990 2,370 1895 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 2,280 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 Securities, total 3,570 3,346 5,348 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 3,477 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 20,029 23,129 27967 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 20,779 20,774 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 Overnight 6,887 6,605 7200 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 6,787 6,711 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,913 10,971 9766 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 9,745 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 With agreed maturity -long-term 2,857 4,157 9703 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 2,814 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,372 1,396 1298 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 1,433 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 Deposits in foreign currency, total 559 490 433 585 559 571 560 520 529 527 488 491 502 493 Overnight 218 215 237 260 218 248 240 226 222 225 218 220 228 218 With agreed maturity -short-term 248 198 123 226 248 229 237 220 224 224 196 192 190 196 With agreed maturity -lonq-term 56 41 45 57 56 55 48 45 45 42 42 43 42 43 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 37 36 27 42 37 39 35 29 38 36 32 36 42 36 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.36 0.46 0.28 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 3.36 4.30 2.51 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.80 6.77 6.43 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 6.62 6.28 6.25 5.63 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations! 3.85 | 3.851 1.231 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.251 4.251 4.25 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.28 4.63 1.23 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.60 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 6-month rates 4.35 4.72 1.44 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 4.59 4.80 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.55 2.58 0.38 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 6-month rates 2.65 2.69 0.50 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 47 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2010 10 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,795 21,896 21,950 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,665 2,620 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,676 34,817 34,893 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,215 5,200 4,723 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 26,950 26,860 26,930 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 10,720 10,487 10,283 9,779 9,722 9,479 8,582 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 7,952 8,190 8,315 9,688 9,928 10,260 10,431 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 1,199 1,243 1,304 1,298 1,354 1,320 1,307 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 462 457 454 433 426 439 436 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 144 141 122 123 117 120 110 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 54 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 31 32 28 27 21 26 22 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 3.75 3.251 2.501 2.001 2.001 1.501 1.25 | 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.00 | 1.001 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 - - 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 - - Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 48 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2008 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,006.1 15,339.2 14,404.0 4,059.8 3,369.3 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,019.5 1,100.1 1,135.2 1,463.1 1,259.9 Current revenues 13,467.2 14,792.3 13,638.2 3,805.1 3,274.0 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,641.0 1,073.5 1,096.4 1,435.7 1,228.7 Tax revenues 12,757.9 13,937.4 12,955.3 3,606.0 3,110.0 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,452.9 1,015.6 1,037.0 1,374.1 1,175.5 Taxes on income and profit 2,917.7 3,442.2 2,805.1 769.4 694.4 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 221.2 250.1 498.3 316.7 Social security contributions 4,598.0 5,095.0 5,161.3 1,251.8 1,203.1 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 400.0 408.4 419.0 415.8 Taxes on payroll and workforce 418.1 258.0 28.5 120.9 59.4 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 19.5 19.9 20.9 20.4 Taxes on property 206.4 214.9 207.0 59.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 10.5 8.3 12.0 28.6 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,498.6 4,805.3 4,660.1 1,372.5 1,099.4 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.0 354.7 340.1 411.5 383.4 Taxes on international trade & transactions 117.1 120.1 90.5 31.7 25.6 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 9.3 9.9 12.3 10.5 Other taxes 2.1 1.8 2.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Non-tax revenues 709.2 854.9 682.8 199.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.4 191.3 188.0 58.0 59.4 61.6 53.1 Capital revenues 136.6 117.3 103.9 62.1 28.0 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 40.8 9.6 7.3 6.2 5.8 Grants 11.9 10.4 11.1 5.0 2.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 Transferred revenues 42.5 53.9 54.3 40.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 -0.4 Receipts from the EU budget 348.0 365.4 596.5 147.1 64.0 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 16.1 30.2 19.3 25.3 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,915.5 15,441.7 16,365.4 4,081.8 3,388.6 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,656.7 1,140.4 1,218.0 1,228.6 1,363.5 Current expenditures 5,950.9 6,557.5 6,797.3 1,658.2 1,575.9 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,767.8 512.3 612.7 528.6 544.9 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,276.9 3,578.9 3,912.3 825.0 819.7 906.8 892.5 959.8 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 986.3 266.0 285.1 277.7 338.9 Expenditures on goods and services 2,212.2 2,527.5 2,506.8 721.3 523.1 589.3 586.1 829.0 547.1 618.0 603.9 737.9 168.6 199.5 184.8 199.2 Interest payments 357.0 335.2 335.9 36.7 221.0 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 28.9 74.2 123.9 61.4 2.5 Reserves 104.8 116.0 42.3 75.2 12.1 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.7 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 Current transfers 6,143.9 6,742.2 7,340.3 1,565.1 1,489.9 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,919.1 517.3 512.1 580.1 707.5 Subsidies 423.4 476.5 597.9 92.8 60.5 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 35.0 20.6 86.7 83.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,093.3 5,619.2 6,024.1 1,304.0 1,303.5 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.2 441.1 444.3 445.0 566.4 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 595.3 598.3 679.5 160.8 118.7 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 196.4 37.7 45.3 46.2 50.5 Current transfers abroad 32.0 48.2 38.9 7.6 7.2 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 3.5 1.9 2.2 6.9 Capital expenditures 1,130.5 1,255.5 1,293.3 567.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 583.3 44.8 50.5 69.3 68.4 Capital transfers 334.3 458.6 495.2 181.4 30.6 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.0 260.4 10.7 10.8 18.9 19.2 Payments to the EU budget 355.9 427.9 439.3 109.8 143.2 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 55.3 31.9 31.7 23.6 SURPLUS / DEFICIT 90.6 -102.5 -1,961.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 49 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2010 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1,282.8 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 1,305.0 1,491.6 1,123.2 1,067.7 1,092.1 1,199.9 1,102.2 1,240.7 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.2 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,414.1 1,076.8 1,216.6 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 1,184.7 1,423.5 1,112.4 1,029.2 1,062.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 1,151.5 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,251.9 1,048.1 1,152.4 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 1,126.5 1,292.7 1,068.5 980.1 1,010.3 1,076.2 996.5 1,091.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.4 994.1 291.5 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 419.5 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 20.9 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 22.1 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 386.9 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 413.3 395.7 331.1 10.9 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 64.3 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 58.1 130.9 43.8 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.8 46.4 69.8 75.1 54.3 57.3 76.4 54.0 14.9 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 9.2 24.8 2.3 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.1 50.2 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 22.4 70.6 39.3 77.0 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.3 1,200.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 1,452.7 1,919.2 1,119.8 1,408.5 1,348.8 1,255.5 1,478.1 1,330.9 1,249.6 1,264.6 1,252.9 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,810.7 1,307.2 508.2 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.6 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 542.0 668.6 520.1 290.3 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 306.4 360.5 305.3 333.1 326.6 312.7 374.0 318.9 325.6 318.1 311.7 325.4 323.6 337.3 317.2 205.3 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 241.4 380.1 172.0 179.1 196.0 212.7 202.2 203.1 207.1 213.2 183.6 206.1 213.8 318.0 170.4 5.8 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 1.7 5.6 28.7 6.8 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.9 7.6 3.9 569.2 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 652.6 675.3 651.3 72.6 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 97.7 83.3 111.1 437.5 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 497.7 507.9 495.1 54.5 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 55.7 81.7 42.5 4.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 78.2 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 84.1 87.4 87.5 101.9 108.1 119.3 147.4 316.6 73.6 24.3 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 22.7 28.1 35.1 82.3 68.2 109.9 18.8 20.9 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 39.1 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 50 Slovenian Economic Mirror, July-August 2009 Acronyms Acronyms AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, GDP - Gross domestic product, BS - Bank of Slovenia, IAADP - Internal Administrative Affairs Directorate, ECB - European Central Bank, EC - European Commission, ELES - Electro Slovenia, FED - Federal Reserve System, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A- Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B- Mining and quarrying, C- Manufacturing, 10- Manufacture of food products, 11- Manufacture of beverages, 12- Manufacture of tobacco products, 13- Manufacture of textiles, 14- Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15- Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17- Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18- Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21- Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22- Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24- Manufacture of basic metals, 25- Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26- Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27- Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28- Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31- Manufacture of furniture, 32- Other manufacturing, 33- Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D- Electricity, gas, steam andair conditioningsupply, E-Watersupply sewerage, waste managementand remediationactivities, F- Construction, G- Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H- Transportation and storage, I- Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L- Real estate activities, M- Professional, scientific and technical activities, N- Administrative and support service activities, O- Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P- Education, Q- Human health and social work activities, R- Arts, entertainment and recreation, S- Other service activities, T- Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U- Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America.