.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > O Ü) fN CD fN O u 0) Ö cu _Q o Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 10 / Vol. XVIII / 2012 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Matevž Hribernik Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Gonzalo Caprirolo, MSc, Janez Dodič, Barbara Ferk, Msc, Marjan Hafner, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Jasna Kondža, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Judita-Mirjana Novak, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Authors of Selected Topics: Matevž Hribernik (The Doing Business 2013 report by the World Bank) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SORS Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................15 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................17 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................20 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................22 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................25 Boxes Box 1: Market shares......................................................... Box 2: Real estate market - Q2 2012............................. Box 3: (In)solvency............................................................ Box 4: The volume of road and rail freight transport . Box 5: International comparison of energy prices...... Box 6: Indebtedness of Slovenian companies............ ..... 10 ..... 12 ..... 13 ..... 14 .....19 ..... 24 Selected topics The Doing Business 2013 report by the World Bank.................................................................................................31 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................33 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 2 November 2012. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Low economic activity in the euro area is expected to continue in the third quarter of this year and the IMF downgraded somewhat its projections for global economic growth in its latest forecast for this year and 2013. Contrary to expectations, the indicators of economic activity in the euro area improved in August, but economic activity in the third quarter is nevertheless expected to remain low. The difficult situation on financial markets is indicated by a continued deterioration in the lending conditions of banks, which tightened again in the third quarter, albeit less than in the previous quarter. The measures at the level of the EU otherwise lowered slightly the required yields of government bonds of the most exposed countries. According to the IMF, uncertainties in the euro area remain the main risk to global economic growth, which is going to be much lower this year than in 2011 and will not accelerate noticeably next year. Given the instability on financial markets, the possibility of the sovereign debt crisis spreading across the euro area and a lack of a medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy in the US, the downside risks to GDP growth are significant. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia improved unexpectedly in August and largely reached the levels seen at the beginning of the year, while in the first eight months they remained lower year-on-year. After July's decline real merchandise exports and imports (seasonally adjusted) expanded visibly in August, according to our estimate, exceeding the levels recorded early this year. Foreign demand also made a significant contribution to growth in manufacturing output. In the construction sector the situation remains tight, with construction activity still being very low despite the increase in August. Regardless of its increases in retail trade and services, turnover remains down year-on-year, and most other indicators of domestic consumption, including household consumption, continue to fall. As in other EU Member States, August's improvement in economic activity was contrary to the expected business trend, given that in most sectors the business climate has been deteriorating for several months. Labour market conditions worsened further in August and September; the average gross wage in August remained at the previous month's level. Employment declined again in August, seasonally adjusted, while registered unemployment has been rising in recent months. At the end of September 105,441 persons were registered as unemployed. The increase in the newly registered unemployed was primarily attributable to a higher inflow of people who lost work due to the termination of fixed-term employment contracts and a higher number of first-time jobseekers. The average gross wage per employee in the private and general government sectors remained unchanged in August, while it rose somewhat in the public sector as a whole due to wage growth in public companies. With 0.1% monthly price growth, y-o-y inflation stood at 2.7%. The greatest contribution to the otherwise low monthly growth came from prices of clothing and footwear and, in part, from higher excise duties on tobacco products, but the price rises were, to some extent, offset by lower energy prices. Regardless of the decline in the last month, higher energy and services prices were the main driver of consumer price growth in the first nine months this year. In this period Slovenia's inflation was also relatively high in comparison with that in the euro area. The gap was mainly attributable to the different impacts of energy prices on inflation. The lending activity of banks continued to decline in September, while the creation of impairments and provisions by domestic banks intensified. The net repayment of corporate loans continued in September, as did, albeit to a lesser extent, the net repayments of household, government and NFI loans. In the first nine months this year the volume of domestic non-banking sector loans with domestic banks shrank by EUR 440 m (compared with an increase of EUR 265.1 m in the same period last year). The outflows of government and household deposits from the banking system continued. Households alone withdrew EUR 100 m in deposits in September. The quality of bank assets continues to deteriorate, with the share of bad claims totalling 13.1% in August, up 2.1 p.p. from the end of last year. While in previous years the problem of bad claims was mainly associated with sectors related to takeover activities or those tied to construction, it is increasingly spreading to other sectors under the impact of the tightened economic situation. In September banks thus increased the creation of impairments and provisions, which amounted to EUR 732.4 m in the first nine months, a fifth more than in the same period last year. The consolidated balance of public finances recorded a deficit of EUR 1,013 bn in the first seven months this year. General government revenue totalled EUR 8.5 bn and was at a similar level as in the same period last year, while general government expenditure was down 1.3% to EUR 9.5 bn. Only interest payments and contributions to the EU budget were up y-o-y, while all other main categories of expenditure declined, most notably capital expenditures and capital transfers. Transfers to individuals and households were also down, particularly social security transfers, family receipts and parental compensation, which is, according to our estimate, mainly due to the beginning of the enforcement of the Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment The IMF downgraded its forecast for global economic growth again in October. According to IMF projections, global economic growth will be 3.3% this year and 3.5% in 2013, down 0.2 and 0.3 p.p. relative to June, respectively. The main reason for the revision is a slowdown of economic activity in developed countries, which is in great part a result of the impact of fiscal consolidation in the euro area and a continuation of tightened financial market conditions. Developing countries remain the main driver of growth (China, for example), but growth in these countries has already declined due to the moderation of global trade. The IMF emphasises that next year's growth is associated with significant downside risks, which mainly stem from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the absence of a medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy in the US (the so-called fiscal cliff). Short-term confidence indicators show a continuation of subdued economic activity in the euro area in the third quarter. The values of various confidence indicators (PMI, ESI) indicate a contraction of economic activity, with expectations regarding new orders and production in the coming months being particularly low. The decline in confidence is particularly pronounced in Germany, where the Ifo business climate index dropped to its two-and-a-half year low and industrial production volume is declining. Industrial production in euro area manufacturing otherwise increased somewhat in August for the second consecutive month, which was not expected. Construction output and turnover in retail trade were also up. Nevertheless, all these indicators are lower than a year earlier, except for turnover in retail trade. In the third quarter the lending conditions in the euro area deteriorated again. According to the ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, the share of banks reporting a Figure 1: Manufacturing PMI - EMU Italy - Germany France 30 Source: Markit Economics. Note: PMI readings above 50 signal an I production, while readings below 50 indicate a decrease. tightening of credit standards was 15% larger than the share of those reporting an easing (compared with 10% in the second quarter). The credit standards deteriorated for loans of all maturities and all enterprises regardless of size, and the tightening is mainly shown in wider margins on risky loans. As in previous quarters, the main factor of the further tightening is negative expectations of banks regarding the economic recovery, particularly in individual industries. Banks also reported a further deterioration of credit standards for household loans, but it was less pronounced than in the previous two quarters. The tightened conditions were also reflected in lower demand for loans to enterprises and households, and similar movements are also expected for the last quarter of this year. Figure 2: The ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (left axis) -Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (left axis) -Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) -----Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) 70 70 f c5 c5 Source: ECB. The required yields of government bonds declined in most of the exposed countries in the euro area in October. The decline was mainly attributable to certain measures at the EU level, which improved financial market confidence in Europe's ability to resolve the debt crisis - September's announcement of the ECB regarding the purchase of government bonds on the secondary market and the establishment of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Within the framework of the ESM a direct recapitalisation of European banks by the ESM is foreseen, as agreed at the European Council in October. The downgrading of credit ratings continues,1 but had no significant effect on the required yields of the most exposed countries. October saw further cuts in interbank interest rates in the euro area. The three-month EURIBOR rate declined by an average of 4 b.p. to 0.211% in October, being down 136 b.p. y-o-y. The three-month US dollar and Swiss franc LIBOR rates also dropped (to 0.335% and 0.039%, 1 Standard&Poors's downgraded Spain's credit rating by two notches in October (to BBB-), and the credit rating of Cyprus by three (to B). Figure 3: Yields on ten-year government bonds Spain Germany 14 yi2 Source: Bloomberg. respectively). The key interest rates of main central banks were left unchanged in October (ECB: 0.75%, Fed: 0.0%, BoE 0.5%). In October the euro gained value against most main global currencies. It appreciated by 0.9% to USD 1.297 to EUR 1 against the US dollar. The euro also gained value against the Japanese yen (by 2.0%, to JPY 102.47 to EUR 1) and the British pound sterling (by 1.1%, to GDP 0.807 to EUR 1), while it remained almost unchanged against the Swiss franc (CHF 1.21 to EUR 1). Figure 4: Movements of Brent crude price and the USD/ EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD/EUR exchange rate (right axis) 1.4 ^ cc i3 1.2 1.0 20 0.6 Oil prices declined in October, while non-energy commodity prices remained unchanged. Following the considerable price swings in the first half of the year, oil prices in US dollars have slowed to around USD 112 per barrel in the last three months. The average Brent oil price stood at USD 111.75 per barrel in October, down 1.0% from the previous month, while the euro price dropped by 2.8% (to EUR 85.59 per barrel). Non-energy commodity prices rose by 0.7% in September. Food prices fell, while prices of metals increased after several months of decline, but were still approximately 11% lower than at the beginning of the year. Non-energy commodity prices did not change much in October, according to provisional data. Economic developments in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia improved unexpectedly in August and mainly reached the levels of the beginning of this year, while in the first eight months they remained lower year-on-year. After July's decline, real merchandise exports and imports (seasonally adjusted) expanded visibly in August, exceeding the levels seen at the beginning of this year, according to our estimate. Foreign demand made a significant contribution to growth in production volume in manufacturing. The situation in the construction sector remains tight, as construction activity is still very low despite the increase in August. Regardless of its increases in retail trade and services, turnover remains down year-on-year, and most other indicators of domestic consumption, including household consumption, continue to fall. As in other EU Member States, August's improvement in economic activity was contrary to the expected trend, given that in most sectors the business climate has been deteriorating for several months. Figure 5: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports -Industrial production in manufacturing -----Value of construction put in place ■ Turnover in retail trade 16 10 8 6 4 2 0 1.8 1.6 Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2011 VIII 12/ VII 12 VIII 12/ VIII 11 I-VIII 12/ I-VIII 11 Exports' 11.7 -10.5 3.2 2.3 -goods 13.3 -12.8 3.0 1.7 -services 4.8 -1.8 3.5 5.1 Imports' 11.3 -6.8 0.6 0.2 -goods 12.9 -5.5 0.2 0.2 -services 2.0 -12.8 2.8 0.4 Industrial production 2.2 4.02 4.23 0.93 -manufacturing 2.1 3.52 2.93 -0.13 Construction -value of construction put in place -25.6 0.92 -14.83 -17.13 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 1.52 -0.73 -1.83 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 2.8 0.92 -2.33 -1.63 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'balance of payments statistics, 2seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Real merchandise exports and imports increased significantly in August, seasonally adjusted.2 We estimate that real exports and imports grew more than 6% from July to August. In August, strong export growth was also recorded by some other EU Member States, which was not expected in view of the business trend data on the value of export orders in manufacturing. The strong growth of imports is mainly attributable to exports increasing intermediate consumption, as domestic consumption has yet to show signs of a recovery. In the first eight months of 2012, real merchandise exports remained unchanged Figure 6: Nominal merchandise exports - Exports -SI ■ Exports -DE -Exports -IT Source: SORS, Destatis, Istat, ECFIN; calculations by IMAD. 2 Real exports are estimated based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while the estimate of real imports is based on nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the import price index. Nominal data on the structure of merchandise exports and imports are available for the first seven months of this year. relative to the same period last year according to original data, while imports were down less than 2%. Nominal exports and imports of services declined in August. In recent months their movements have been influencedprimarily by the group of other services (seasonally adjusted).3 Nominal exports and imports of services were down again in August (-0.3% and -1.9%, respectively). Exports of transport, travel and other business services remained roughly the same as in previous months, while exports of other services declined following the pronounced growth in the second quarter. On the import side, imports of other services continue to grow. Imports of travel and other business services are also increasing. In the first eight months of this year exports of services were up 5.1% y-o-y according to original data, while imports were up 0.4%. Figure 7: Trade in services -Exports of services -Imports of services - Exports of other services - Imports of other services 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD In August production volume increased in manufacturing industries of all technology levels. The increase was most pronounced in low- and medium-low-technology industries, where in the first half of the year production declined. Production also continued to rise in industries of higher technology intensity. Its growth mainly reflected foreign demand, as revenues from sales abroad increased in August. In the first eight months of this year, they were up 3.2% y-o-y. Revenues from sales on the domestic market, which continue to decline this year, were down y-o-y (-7.5%). Production in industries of higher technology intensity, which are most export-oriented, was up y-o-y, on average, in the first eight months of 2012 (2.6%). Despite August's growth, production in industries 3 According to the balance of payments statistics. When we adjusted data for seasonal effects, we included communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. Together, they account for just over a tenth of services exports and nearly a third of services imports.. Box 7: Market shares1 In the first half of this year, Slovenia's share on the world market of goods shrank more notably again, which was in great part due to the structure of Slovenian exports. Following last year's growth, the Slovenian market share in the EU was down 3.3% y-o-y in the first half of the year, largely on account of a decline in the shares on the French market (by more than a fifth) and on a number of relatively less important EU markets.2 The market shares in Germany, Italy and Austria, which are, in addition to France, Slovenia's most important markets in the EU, increased in the first half of the year. Among Slovenia's main non-EU trading partners, only the market share in Croatia fell in the first half of the year (-1%). The Slovenian market shares in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia rose, as did the market shares in Russia and the US. This indicates that, in addition to the general loss in export competitiveness, the pronounced decline in Slovenia's global market share in the first half of the year (-9.6%) was also attributable to the regional structure of Slovenian exports. Specifically, Slovenia exports an above-average share of goods (around 85%) to EU markets and to former Yugoslav republics, which recorded modest or lower import demand this year.3 In Russia and the US, where import demand increased much more rapidly, much as in some Asian (China) and Latin-American countries, Slovenia has relatively smaller market shares. In the first half of the year, Slovenia was in the group of EU Member States with above-average declines in global market shares.4 Figure 9: Change in market shares in main trading partners in the 1st half of 2012 ■ Slovenian exports to trading partners ■ Imports from trading partners ♦ Market share 20 Figure 8: Change in Slovenia's shares on the global market and in the EU ■ Global market ■ EU 12 „4.1 H IJ 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.-6. Source: SORS, Eurostat,UN; calculations by IMAD. Figure 10: Change in market shares in the EU by main SITC sections,5 in the 1st half of 2012 Market share «Share in exports 2011 15 10 5 0 -10 -15 -20 -25 15 10 # C 5 0 -10 -15 S "ö '(U !E d -Ö a ■Ö !E a ro "0 C ro T3 C ■Ö C c c (D (D (Z (Ü l-v d VJD c o !E Si !E ro Z c ro 5 ■D T3 C VO C -C c l-v t^ 5 o ^ CL l-v E Source: SORS, Eurostat, WIIW, US Census Bureau; calculations by IMAD. Source: SORS,liurostat; calculations by IMAD. 1 The market share on the world market of goods is the share of Slovenian goods exports in world goods exports. The market share in the main trading partners (14) is calculated as the share of Slovenian goods exports in the total imports of these countries. The market shares in individual trading partners or SITC sections are calculated in the same way (shares of Slovenian exports in the total imports of a given trading partner or EU SITC section). 2 Poland, Hungary, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland, Luxembourg, Sweden, Finland, Cyprus and Romania and UK. 3 In the EU, import demand in the first half of 2012 was actually somewhat higher y-o-y, but the increase was due to higher imports of primary commodities (energy products), while imports of manufactured goods were lower. Croatia reduced goods imports in the first half of the year, as did Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. 4 The EU share on the global goods market declined by 7% in the first half of the year. Among 21 Member States for which data are available, only Malta increased its share on the global goods market and only five other Member States (Ireland, Finland, Cyprus, Sweden and Belgium) recorded larger declines than Slovenia in the first half of the year. 5 Accounting for 2% or greater shares in total goods exports in the EU in 2011. 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 20 The decline in Slovenia's market share in the EU in the first half of the year was mainly attributable to road vehicles. The decline in the market share of road vehicles was reflected in a fall in the market share of machinery and transport equipment, although the market shares of electrical machinery and appliances, general industrial machinery, power-generating machinery and machinery specialised for particular industries rose in the first quarter. The decline in the share of road vehicles also contributed to a decline in Slovenia's market share in France, for the third consecutive year after the beginning of the phase-out of car-buying incentives in 2010. The market shares of manufactures classified by material and miscellaneous goods continued to grow in the first half of the year, but at lower rates than in 2011 as a whole, primarily due to a decline in the market shares of rubber manufactures, paper, paperboard, other metal products and furniture amid a concurrent, more pronounced, growth in the shares of textile yarn and fabrics, metals and miscellaneous manufactured articles. In the first half of the year, the market share of chemicals increased more than in 2012 as a whole due to higher shares of a number of relatively less important chemicals and related products.6 On the other hand, growth in the share of medicinal and pharmaceutical products that play a relatively more important role in our exports came to a halt. In the first half of the year, the market share of primary products declined somewhat more than the market share of manufactured goods, which was mainly related to a fall in the market share of electricity after three years of significant growth. ' Organic and inorganic chemicals, essential oils, fertilisers, plastics, etc., which account for less than 1% of total goods exports. of lower technology intensity (low- and medium-low-technology industries) remained lower y-o-y in the same period (-2.5%). The largest y-o-y declines were reported by the furniture industry and the manufacture of rubber and plastic products. Performance increased only in the activity of repair and installation of machinery and equipment. Figure 11: Production volume in manufacturing industries according to technology intensity -Total -----Medium-high and high-technology industries -Medium-low-technology industries -----Low-technology industries c^- 90 "is "O 80 ro 75 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity remains low. The value of construction output was up somewhat in August (0.9%, seasonally adjusted), but it was substantially lower than in the previous August (-14.8%). Activity in non-residential buildings construction has maintained similar levels in recent months, while activity in civil engineering and residential construction4 declined after the strengthening at the beginning of the year. 4 The data on the value of residential construction put in place should be interpreted with caution, as they do not include small enterprises, which are, according to our estimates, mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings. The prospects for the construction sector remain uncertain. The value of new contracts in construction has increased somewhat since the beginning of the year, but remains lower y-o-y (down 10.3% y-o-y in the first eight months; the stock of contracts down 7.2% in August). Broken down by construction segments, civil engineering fares better than last year (the stock of contracts and the value of new contracts are up), the decline in non-residential buildings activity is moderate, while the decline in residential construction (where activity tends to be most volatile, see figure) is more pronounced. Figure 12: Value of construction put in place, seasonally adjusted 120 ^110 j^100 c 90 o £ :f= 80 70 60 50 40 !5 20 Total Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Civil-engineering works o -- Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. After the decline in the second quarter, turnover in retail and wholesale trade increased slightly in August, while turnover in the sale of motor vehicles continued to shrink, seasonally adjusted. The increase in real turnover in retail trade mainly reflected growth in turnover in the sale of automotive fuels. This rose in August after a relatively substantial decline in the second quarter, and again 95 70 30 10 Box 2: Real estate market - Q2 2012 After two years of considerable volatility, the number of transactions in second-hand flats in the second quarter was comparable to the average level in 2008, while the number of new flats sold dropped substantially. According to SORS data, the number of all dwellings (newly-built and second-hand flats and family houses) sold since the beginning of 2011, except in Q4 2011, remains practically unchanged. The majority of transactions, around two thirds of all real estate transactions, occur for second-hand flats. Following the increase in the second half of 2011, the number of transactions in second-hand flats has been declining this year, but remains at the 2008 average, in contrast to the number of transactions in new flats, which is down almost a half from the average level in 2008. After a short interruption, the rapid decline (by a quarter) in the number of these transactions seen in 2011 resumed in the second quarter of 2012. Amid a further cleansing of banks' balance sheets, buyers are still postponing their purchase decisions in anticipation of a price decrease. The number of transactions in new flats in Q2 2012 was thus the lowest since these transactions were first statistically monitored in 2007. The prices of second-hand flats have remained practically unchanged in the last three-and-a-half years, while the prices of new flats recorded a new low in the second quarter. In the second quarter, housing prices increased by 1.1% according to SORS, being down 5.7% y-o-y. Overall, only the prices of new flats declined and were more than a tenth lower than a year earlier and equal to that in the third quarter of 2009, the lowest thus far. The prices of second-hand flats were up somewhat after previous declines, reaching roughly the same levels as at the beginning of 2009. Figure 13: Transactions in second-hand and new flats -Transactions in second-hand flats -Transactions in new flats Figure 14: Prices of second-hand and new flats -Prices of second-hand flats -Prices of new flats 105 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. approached the highest levels thus far. After falling in previous months, turnover in the sale of food products, beverages and tobacco products also increased in August, but was still lower than last year. Turnover in the sale of motor vehicles, which has been falling since mid-2011 due to declining new car sales,5 was as much as a tenth lower than in the previous August. In contrast, nominal turnover in wholesale trade was up slightly in August after the decline in the second quarter, which is attributable to increased production volume in manufacturing and, to a certain extent, construction activity, according to our estimation. a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade)^ grew slightly again in August (seasonally adjusted), but is still lower than at the beginning of the year and a year earlier. Turnover increased in all main market services, except transportation. Transportation and storage remains the only sector with turnover exceeding the average level of 2008 (by over 3%). Within transportation and storage, particularly turnover in warehousing and support activities was down markedly in August, while turnover in land transport continued to fall.7 After the substantial decline in the last quarter of 2011, turnover in accommodation and food service activities increases 5 In August, the total number of new passenger car registrations was a quarter lower than in July, while turnover in the sale of motor vehicles was down by an additional 2.4%, seasonally adjusted. 6 Activities from H to N (SCA 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 7 Year-on-year, in August, turnover -4.8% and, similarly, the number of trucks passing through toll stations -4.6% (DARS) and exports of road freight transport services -6.6% (BS). Figure 15: Turnover in trade sectors 105 is 100 o 95 90 g^0 85 80 t 70 65 - Retail trade, real of which automotive fuels, real ■ Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 16: Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional, technical activ. (M) -----Accommodation and food service activities (I) 75 JŠ^^JŠ^SJŠjiJšjBJŠ:^ Source: Eurostat; calculatit^ns by IMAD. this year again due to a higher number of overnight stays. Turnovers in information-communication and professional-technical activities have been declining over the long term, despite August's increases. The decline in the former is attributable to the shrinkage of the market for classical telephony and tighter competition in mobile telephony, while turnover in professional and technical activities is falling due to weak construction activity. Turnover in information-communication activities is thus 5% lower than on average in 2008; turnover in professional-technical activities is down 15%. Box 3: (In)solvency Short-term insolvency of business entities1 increased in the first nine months of this year. According to AJPES records, almost a tenth fewer legal entities than in the same period last year had outstanding matured liabilities2 on average per month, but the amount of these liabilities was half higher. In the first nine months the number of these legal entities declined particularly in construction, transportation and storage and administrative and support service activities. The amount of outstanding liabilities increased most notably in real estate, manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. In September, the highest number of these legal entities (a fifth) was recorded by wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles (in September last year, by the construction sector), while the largest amount of outstanding liabilities was observed in construction (a third, as in September 2011). However, since March the number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities has been growing; in September it was more than a tenth higher year-on-year. In the first nine months, fewer sole proprietors and own-account workers had outstanding matured liabilities3 than in the same period last year. Their number was down more than a tenth, while the average monthly amount of their outstanding liabilities was slightly higher than last year. Figure 17: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and the average total amount of outstanding liabilities No. of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities (left axis) -Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, in EUR m (right axis) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 E 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 800 O O O Source: AJPES 1 Short-term insolvency of a business entity is the inability of a legal or natural person to pay its matured liabilities in the short term. 2 AJPES records include outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month according to writs of execution and tax debt, but they do not include other outstanding liabilities (unpaid bills between creditors and debtors). 3 On average per month. 4 Since April 2011, the compulsory multilateral offsets executed by AJPES take place according to the Act on Prevention of Late Payments, OG RS, No. 18/2011. 0 Table2: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, September 2012 Activity Number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities Growth, in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, in '000 Growth, in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities per legal entity, in '000 IX 12/ IX 11 I-IX 12/ I-IX 11 IX 12/ IX 11 I-IX 12/ I-IX 11 Construction 1,427 5.6 -13.7 212,719 46.4 38.3 149 Trade; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 1,428 8.2 -5.5 119,790 107.3 63.3 84 Manufacturing 865 12.9 -7.0 78,922 82.3 73.9 91 Financial and insurance activities 89 8.5 6.6 74,299 467.6 13.7 835 Professional, scientific and technical activities 834 17.8 -1.1 71,318 -1.4 52.1 86 Real estate 219 20.3 7.3 43,903 110.4 96.2 200 Transportation and storage 378 6.5 -11.1 27,328 -54.1 19.0 72 Other business activities 208 3.5 -10.2 22,380 45.4 59.3 108 Other activities 1,402 7.4 -3.4 67,184 44.3 77.8 48 TOTAL 6,850 9.2 -6.6 717,843 51.4 50.1 105 Source: AJPES. September saw the ninth round of compulsory multilateral offsets4 of mutual obligations this year. With this year's offset procedures the mutual indebtedness between business entities in Slovenia decreased by EUR 543.8 m, which accounts for 7.4% of all obligations reported this year. In the first nine months, fewer bankruptcy proceedings related to long-term insolvency were filed than in the same period last year. Overall, 33 compulsory settlement proceedings were initiated against legal persons in the first nine months (particularly in construction and manufacturing; 15.4% fewer than last year), 402 bankruptcy proceedings (most of them in wholesale and retail trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles; construction and manufacturing; 11.4% fewer) and 4 liquidation proceedings. A total of 60 personal bankruptcy proceedings were initiated against sole proprietors (mainly in construction; wholesale and retail trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and transportation and storage; 16.7% fewer). Figure 18: Filing of bankruptcy proceedings ^^m Bankruptcy proceedings against legal entities (left axis) ■ Personal bankruptcy proceedings against sole proprietors (right axis) 150 120 E90 60 50 40 301= Box 4: The volume of road and rail freight transport The volume of road freight transport dropped significantly in the second quarter, mainly due to a decline in goods carried by natural persons. After two quarters of growth, road freight transport measured in tonne kilometres declined in the second quarter of 2012 (-8.0%, seasonally adjusted). Two thirds of the decline was attributable to a lower volume of goods transported by natural persons (-17.6%, seasonally adjusted) and one third to a lower volume of goods carried by legal persons (-3.7%, seasonally adjusted). Road freight transport was thus 2.7% lower than on average in 2008. The volume of goods carried by sole proprietors was down in particular (-30.6%). It has been declining rapidly since 2009.1 The Figure 19: Road and rail freight transport -Road (left axis) -Rail (right axis) E JE 3,600 900 800 J^ 700 600 £= O 500 (D 400 Ü 300 200 a a a a So u rce: SORS; calculations by IMAD. a a a a Source: AJPES -eObjave v postopkih zaradi insolventnosti (e-Release in insolvency procedures). 1 In 2004 it still accounted for half of total transport, but this share dropped to 28% by the second quarter of 2012. The decline can also be attributed to the uncertain situation of sole proprietors as subcontractors, as they are more vulnerable in the event of non-payment than companies. 60 20 30 10 0 0 total volume of carried goods was 5.3% lower y-o-y; DARS data on trucks passing through toll stations (-3.3%) and BS data on exports of road freight services (-4.4%) show a similar picture. National transport dropped by 19.6%2 and international transport by 3.0%. National transport was mainly affected by lower construction activity and a decline in sales. The decline in the volume of rail freight transport eased slightly (-0.7%, seasonally adjusted). Relative to 2008, rail transport volume was down 0.6%. 2 From 25% of total freight transport in 2004 to below 12% by the second quarter of 2012. Figure 20: Net wage bill and turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels, seasonally adjusted -Turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels -Net wage bill c^^ c^^ c^^ c^^ Source: SORS; calculations by MAD. Figure 21: Major purchases by households in consumer confidence indicator -No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -----Consumer confdence indicator, seasonally adjusted (right axis) -Major purchases in the next 12 months (right axis) „, 11^ I- 10 100 90 60 50 \ /« V 'M\ / ' ' \l J A '-•••i--..... i......]...... ......4...... .....1 \ r .....j......!......i......i...... .....v Ia ......]...... .....i........................ i 1' -10 -40 ^^ -50 Source: SORS, MI-IAAD; calculations by IMAD. Short-term indicators show that in the third quarter household consumption declined again and expectations remain low. With the enforcement of the Public Finance Balance Act (ZUJF), in the third quarter the net wage bill declined (-0.7%, seasonally adjusted) somewhat more than in the previous quarter. Turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels continues to drop. Spending on durable goods8 is declining further, most noticeably in new car purchases. Households have also been reducing consumer loans for the entire year (having repaid as much as EUR 169 m in loans this year compared with EUR 73 m in the same period last year). Household savings in banks also shrank somewhat, mainly due to a decline in short-term deposits, although the volume of long-term deposits has also been dropping in the last four months. We estimate that this is a consequence of the Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act (ZUPJS), according to which property is also taken into account in the allocation of social transfers, though it is also partly related to a loss of confidence in the banking sector. After a pronounced decline in September, the consumer confidence indicator increased in October, but remains very low. Expectations regarding the financial situation and future savings improved somewhat, but because of high uncertainty households continue to lower expectations regarding major purchases in the next 12 months. The sentiment indicator continued to decline in October. The value of the confidence indicator deteriorated in all activities, seasonally adjusted, particularly in retail trade. This year the confidence indicator worsened in all activities except construction, where it is lowest (besides consumer confidence, which is also very low). In October consumer confidence otherwise improved, but remained lower than in the first half of the year. Figure 22: Business trends - Economic sentiment Retail trade - Gradbeništvo - Manufacturing - Service activ. Consumers ^^ Source: SORS. 8 Spending on durable goods is estimated based on turnover in the sale of furniture, household appliances, construction material, audio/video recordings in specialised stores, turnover in the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts and accessories (SORS) and new car registrations by natural persons (MI-IAAD data, IMAD's estimate). 0 80 70 Labour market Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate in August and September. Employment according to the statistical register9 declined again in August (-0.2%, seasonally adjusted), being also down y-o-y (-1.7%). Formal employment dropped most notably in the construction sector, in relative terms, by 1.0%, seasonally adjusted, and by 11.0% y-o-y. The registered unemployment rate in August remained at the level of July (11.9%, seasonally adjusted). According to seasonally adjusted data, registered unemploymentcontinued to increase in September. It grew by 0.2%, seasonally adjusted, but was down 1.5% y-o-y. A total of 105,441 persons were registered as unemployed at the end of September. In September, 8,717 persons registered anew, an increase of 2,229 on August, which Figure 23: Seasonally adjusted labour market movements -Employed according to the statistical register (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) Table 4: Labour market indicators 820 760 E 720 700 160 100 E 60 40 Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Persons in formal employment by activity in % 2011 VIII 12/ VII 12 VIII 12/ VIII 11 I-VIII 12/ I-VIII 11 Labour force -0.1 -0.3 -1.7 -1.4 Persons in formal employment -1.3 -0.3 -1.8 -1.4 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.4 -0.3 -1.7 -1.2 Registered unemployed 10.1 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 Average nominal gross wage 2.0 -0.1' -0.7 0.6 - private sector 2.6 -0.1' 0.2 1.0 - public sector 1.0 0.2' -2.4 -0.1 -of which general government 0.0 0.0' -3.6 -1.6 2011 VIII 11 VII 12 VIII 12 Rate of registered unemployment, in %, seasonally adjusted 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,524.65 1,524.15 1,498.05 1,512.95 Private sector (in EUR) 1,388.65 1,390.60 1,373.47 1,393.82 Public sector (in EUR) 1,778.45 1,774.79 1,725.75 1,731.39 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,801.27 1,793.00 1,726.81 1,728.80 Sources: ESS. SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted. was primarily attributable to a higher inflow of people who lost work due to the termination of fixed-term employment contracts and a higher number of first-time jobseekers. Altogether 9,347 persons were deleted from the unemployment register in September, 2,934 more than in August. The increase was mainly due to a higher number of people who found work, in addition to a slightly higher outflow to inactivity, largely because more young people returned to education. In August the average gross wage per employee remained at the level of the previous month,10 seasonally adjusted. It remained unchanged in the private11 and general government sectors, while it increased somewhat in the Number in '000 Change in Number 2011 VIII 11 VII 12 VIII 12 11/10 VIII 12/ VII 12 VIII 12/ VIII 11 I-VIII 12/ I-VIII 11 Manufacturing 184.8 184.0 182.9 182.5 -3,725 -446 -1544 -334 Construction 67.8 68.4 60.5 60.2 -10,709 -341 -8,208 -8,311 Market services 342.2 341.8 338.2 337.3 -3,400 -979 -4,555 -2,937 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 109.7 109.5 107.7 107.2 -2,078 -493 -2,322 -1,568 Public services 170.2 169.5 171.1 170.6 1,406 -474 1,086 2,169 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.4 51.5 50.8 50.8 -661 -33 -669 -433 Education 64.7 63.7 64.6 64.3 1,145 -368 540 1,097 Human health and social work activities 54.1 54.4 55.6 55.6 922 -73 1,215 1,505 Other 59.0 59.2 57.7 57.8 5,355 114 -1,396 -2,007 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 9 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. 10 According to original data, it was up in all activities except two, most noticeably in industry. The main contribution to the increase came from manufacturing, where wage growth was significantly impacted by extraordinary payments, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry. 11 As of June 2012, we only comment on data on wages in the private sector and the public sector (within the latter, in the general government sector in 180 140 120 -n 80 Table 5: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2011 VIII 2012 2011/ 2010 VIII 12/ VII 12 VIII 12/ VIII 11 I-VIII 12/ I-VIII 11 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,451.57 1,457.77 2.6 1.4 0.2 1.4 Industry (B-E) 1,408.91 1,446.57 3.6 2.0 1.4 2.1 - of which manufacturing 1,362.79 1,402.62 3.9 2.1 1.3 2.9 Construction 1,235.95 1,212.96 2.0 1.6 -1.9 -1.6 Traditional services (G-I) 1,349.67 1,339.19 2.7 0.5 -0.2 0.9 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,718.65 1,701.18 0.7 1.2 -0.7 0.2 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,750.03 1,679.45 0.0 0.1 -3.6 -1.6 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,784.27 1,731.33 0.3 0.1 -3.3 -1.5 - Education 1,733.58 1,620.55 0.2 0.0 -5.0 -2.1 - Human health and social work activities 1,735.19 1,700.34 -0.7 0.3 -2.0 -1.1 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. public sector due to wage growth in public corporations (0.4%). In the private sector wages have stagnated since the end of 2011, while wages in the general government sector dropped after three years of stagnation due to the enforcement of the ZUJF.12 In the first eight months the y-o-y nominal growth of the average gross wage (0.6%) stemmed only from the private sector, despite the slowdown (1.0%, compared with 3.0% last year). Within that, wages in financial corporations declined (-0.3%), while wages in non-financial corporations only recorded slower growth (1.1%). In this period the gross wage declined in some service activities and construction, Figure 24: Gross wage per employee -Public sector -Private sector ---- -of which, general government sector 2,000 1,800 ■Sin I 1,600 1,400 !S 1,200 1,000 1 1 //vn- ..... ......i.......f....... .......i.......t...... .......f......i....... .......f.......1.......1.......i.......f......r ......^......■»...... ■"I ■■ V ......4.......*■......< i.......j-......4....... ... .......i...... ......i.......i....... .......i.......i...... .......1......4....... .......i.......1.......i.......i.......i......j.. Ji Ji Ji Source: SORS. particular), and only exceptionally on wages in private sector activities and public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics -Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sectors. 12 With the enforcement of the ZUJF, general government wages dropped by 3.1% in June and by an additional 0.3% in July, seasonally adjusted. They were reduced by 8%, but the actual decline was smaller as the remaining two quarters of funds to eliminate wage disparities were also paid in June. while its growth slowed least in industry. In the public sector, wages declined only in the general government sector, while they grew at above-average rates in public corporations and financial and non-financial corporations (2.0% and 3.1%, respectively). Prices Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in October. The greatest contribution to the otherwise low monthly growth came from seasonally higher prices of clothing and footwear (0.6 p.p.). In addition to seasonal factors, October's inflation was also marked by higher excise duties on tobacco products (a contribution of 0.2 p.p) and lower energy prices (a contribution of-0.3 p.p.). Y-o-y inflation stood at 2.7%. In the first ten months prices were up 3.0%, primarily on account of the movement of food and energy prices. Figure 25: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area -Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation - Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation o ^ 85 §5 JŽ JŽ JŽ ji Source: Eurostat 8 2 0 Consumer price movements in the first nine months were marked by higher price of energy and services. Higher energy prices contributed around 1.4 p.p. to the 2.9% Figure 26: Contribution of energy products to 2012 inflation (HICP) in the euro area, September 2012 S2 I HICP (left axis) I Fuels and energy (right axis) ' ÜÜ C^J CL ^^^ UJ Source: Eurostat. 5 2 .<5 price growth in this period. The greatest contribution came from higher prices of liquid fuels (1.0 p.p.). Reaching their highs in September, they have increased by around 16% this year. In addition to higher euro prices of oil, liquid fuel prices were also impacted by higher excise duties, which contributed around 0.2 p.p. to growth in the first nine months of this year. Inflation was also marked by price rises in services (3.4%), which were a consequence of a one-off factor. The abolition of subsidies on school meals in September increased this year's price growth by around 0.4 p.p. Against the background of weak economic activity, core inflation remains low, around 1.2%. Slovenia recorded relatively high price growth in comparison with the euro area. Amid the same factors that affect price growth in the euro area, inflation was 1.5 p.p. higher than in the euro area in the first nine months of this year (1.9%). Price growth was mainly attributable to higher energy prices, particularly prices of liquid fuels, which had a larger impact on prices in Slovenia (by 0.9 p.p.) than in the euro area.13 In the euro area this year's growth was also marked by somewhat higher prices of services, mainly as a consequence of tax policy measures in some countries. Moreover, higher energy prices were also reflected in higher prices of transport services. Table 6: Breakdown of the HICP into sub-groups - September 2012 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 3.4 100.0 3.4 1.9 100.0 1.9 Goods 3.7 66.0 2.4 2.2 58.5 1.3 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 3.1 15.4 0.5 1.5 11.9 0.2 Non-processed food 7.4 7.3 0.5 2.1 7.2 0.2 Non-energy industrial goods -1.1 28.8 -0.3 0.7 28.5 0.2 Durables -1.7 10.6 -0.2 -0.1 9.0 0.0 Non-durables 1.8 8.8 0.2 1.6 8.2 0.1 Semi-durables -1.8 9.4 -0.2 1.9 11.2 0.2 Energy 11.4 14.5 1.7 7.7 11.0 0.8 Electricity for households 4.2 2.7 0.1 5.7 2.6 0.2 Natural gas 6.0 1.1 0.1 5.1 1.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 13.5 1.7 0.2 7.7 0.9 0.1 Solid fuels -0.9 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 District heating 10.4 0.9 0.1 3.9 0.7 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 15.9 7.2 1.1 10.4 4.9 0.5 Services 2.7 34.0 0.9 1.1 41.5 0.5 Services - dwellings 0.1 3.0 0.0 1.5 10.1 0.2 Services - transport 1.3 5.9 0.1 2.3 6.5 0.1 Services - communications 0.5 3.5 0.0 -2.8 3.1 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 5.1 13.5 0.7 1.1 14.5 0.2 Services - other services 2.1 8.1 0.2 1.2 7.3 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 1.4 78.2 1.1 0.9 81.8 0.7 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification 13 The differences in the contributions of liquid fuels for transportation and heating to inflation can, besides Slovenia and in the euro area, also be explained by the HICP structure and differences in weights. Specifically, higher share of expenditure for transportation and heating (8.9%) than an average household in the euro area. by factors that affect liquid price growth in an average Slovenian household allocates a 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 0 0 Box 5: International comparison of energy prices Prices of liquid fuels and electricity in Slovenia are mainly below the EU average, while gas prices are among the highest in the EU. In the last five years, liquid fuel prices without taxes have been a few percent lower in Slovenia, on average, than in the EU as a whole (petrol prices by 2.5% and diesel fuel prices by 4.5%). Liquid fuel prices including taxes were also below the EU average (petrol prices by 12.9%, diesel fuel prices by 6.9%). The gaps with the EU narrowed particularly in 2009 and 2010, when the level of excise duties was highest. Electricity prices without taxes narrowed their gap with the EU average to around 10% by the first half of 2012, while in the second half of 2007 electricity prices for households had still been 26% lower and electricity prices for industry 3% higher than on average in the EU. A comparison of electricity prices including taxes shows a higher deviation (by 7 to 8 p.p.). Prices of natural gas, still equal to the EU average in the second quarter of 2007, increased relatively significantly in the following years. In the first half of 2012, gas prices for households and industry without taxes were as much as 23% and 44% higher, respectively, than the average prices in the EU. Prices including taxes exceed the EU average somewhat less. Figure 27: Liquid fuel prices without taxes in Slovenia and the EU 0.70 0.40 0.20 EU-27 Diesel fuel Slovenia Diesel fuel -EU-27 Petrol 95 -Slovenia Petrol 95 o ^ ^ Source: EC, oil bulletin; calculations by IMAD. Note: *price for Jul-Oct. Figure 28: Electricity prices without taxes in Slovenia and the EU 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 -EU-27 Households (2500-5000 kWh annual consumption) -Slovenia Households) (2500-5000 kWh annual consumption ---EU-27 Industry (500-2000 MWh annual consumption) ---Slovenia Industry (500-2000 MWh annual consumption) o ^ ^ Source: Eurostat. Note: *Price for EU 2011 S2. Figure 29: Natural gas prices without taxes in Slovenia and the EU 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 -EU-27 Households (20-200 GJ annual consumption) -Slovenia Households (20-200 GJ annual consumption) ---EU-27 Industry (10000-100000 GJ annual consumption) ---Slovenia Industry (10000-100000 GJ annual consumption) ^rNrNrNrNrNrsrNCD Source: Eurostat. Note: *Price for EU 2011 S2. Growth in industrial producer prices remains low. While industrial producer prices on foreign markets recorded weaker growth (0.5%) than in August, prices on the domestic market remained unchanged. Y-o-y price growth remains moderate, at the level of the previous three months (around 0.9%), which is attributable to lower prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products and subdued growth in most other manufacturing industries. In September, domestic producer prices on foreign markets were again somewhat higher y-o-y than in the previous month (0.5 p.p.). Price rises were recorded particularly in the manufacture of food products (4.3%) and transport equipment (3.1 %). As on the domestic market, prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products also dropped on foreign markets (-4.9%). Y-o-y growth in import prices stood at 2.7% in September, up 1.6 p.p. on August. In addition to higher prices of oil products, the strong y-o-y growth was also impacted by higher prices in the manufacture of food products (5.4%), while prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products remain lower than a year earlier (-3.8%). 0.50 0.30 0.10 0 Figure 30: Structure of y-o-y inflation 8 Other Services Fuels and energy Food 4 i^2 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 31: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods sold on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic) -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabric. metal prod.; exc. mach.,equip. (domestic) ----Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) - PPI (foreign) 20 16 12 8 4 y 0 -4 -8 -12 The price competitiveness of the economy, which has been, with short interruptions, improving for the third year in a row, deteriorated in August, but in most EU Member States the improvement continued. As a result of higher relative prices,14 the real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP rose by 0.2% at the monthly level in August, but it continued to decline y-o-y (-1.5%). In August relative prices also increased y-o-y, but at the same time, the value of the euro declined substantially, primarily against the GBP, USD and JPY. The gain in price competitiveness15 in the first eight months was also 14 Slovenian prices relative to prices in the trading partners. 15 Price competitiveness improved by 1.5% in August over December, and by 1.2% in the eight months to August relative to the same period of 2011. attributable to a lower exchange rate of the euro. In most euro area countries price competitiveness continued to improve at the monthly level in August due to a lower growth or decline in relative prices, and the improvement in the first eight months was larger than in Slovenia. The effects of the depreciation of the euro on Slovenia's price competitiveness were relatively smaller16 due to the geographical structure of Slovenia's external trade. Figure 32: Real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP -REER defl. HICP -NEER ■—Relat. HICP 3 ji 5Ž Ji 5Ž 5Ž Source: ECB;calculations l^y IMAD. Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit in August and a surplus of EUR 278.4 m in the eight months to August. The y-o-y increase in the surplus was mainly due to a higher surplus in external trade. The balance of factor incomes remained at a similar level y-o-y, while the balance of current transfers deteriorated. External trade has been in surplus since the beginning of the year. August's y-o-y increase in the surplus in goods and services trade was mainly due to a lower deficit in merchandise trade. Exports to non-EU Member States continued to grow y-o-y, while exports to EU countries shrank again. In the first eight months of the year the merchandise trade deficit totalled EUR 359.4 m, down EUR 204.0 m on the same period last year. The surplus in trade in services also widened y-o-y in August, in addition to a higher surplus in trade in travel services, also due to a lower trade deficit in all other services. In the first eight months of the year, the surplus in services trade totalled 16 As Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro area, a depreciation of the euro has a smaller impact on its nominal effective exchange rate, and vice versa: when the euro gains value, the effects on the movement of Slovenia's nominal effective exchange rate are relatively smaller. 5 3 0 Figure 33: Components of the current account balance, in EUR m ^^Merchandise trade ^^ Services trade Factor incomes ^HCurrent transfers -Current account 300 200 100 0 E cc 0:5 -100 J! -200 -300 -400 -500 Source: BS. EUR 1,068.8 m, compared with EUR 917.6 m in the same period last year. The deficit in factor incomes in the first eight months was similar to that in the same period last year. The total net payments of interest climbed to EUR 286.1 m in the first eight months, up EUR 16.0 m on the same period last year. As a result of the increased borrowing from the Eurosystem, net interest receipts of the Bank of Slovenia Table 7: Balance of payments I-VIII 12, v mio EUR Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VIII 11 Current account 18,916.0 18,637.7 278.3 27.3 - Trade balance (FOB) 14,214.9 14,574.3 -359.4 -563.4 - Services 3,317.1 2,248.3 1,068.8 917.6 - Income 511.0 918.0 -407.1 -410.9 Current transfers 873.1 897.0 -23.9 84.0 Capital and financial account 1,316.1 -1,617.0 -300.9 -188.1 - Capital account 181.1 -146.0 35.1 -23.1 - Capital transfers 179.9 -145.2 34.6 -19.6 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.2 -0.8 0.5 -3.5 - Financial account 1,135.0 -1,471.0 -336.0 -165.0 - Direct investment 180.1 135.6 315.7 365.0 - Portfolio investment -1,750.8 242.2 -1,508.6 2,300.3 - Financial derivates -56.0 23.8 -32.2 -101.9 - Other investment 2,761.7 -1,861.3 900.4 -2,752.5 - Assets 82.7 -1,250.1 -1,167.4 -2,198.7 - Liabilities 2,679.0 -611.2 2,067.8 -553.9 - Reserve assets 0.0 -11.3 -11.3 24.1 Net errors and omissions 22.6 0.0 22.6 160.8 were lower y-o-y despite the low interest rate on the main refinancing operations. Regardless of continued deleveraging, net interest payments of domestic commercial banks increased due to tightened terms of financing. On the other hand, the general government sector recorded lower net interest payments on external debt than in the same period last year, primarily due to the repayment of the RS64 bond in the amount of EUR 1 bn in February 2012. A higher net outflow of income from capital was mitigated by a higher inflow of income from labour. The deficit in the balance of factor income therefore remained almost unchanged y-o-y in the first eight months of the year (down EUR 410. 9 m to EUR 407.1 m). Figure 34: Net interest payments in EUR m ^HB^ General government Private sector -Total 30 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The y-o-y decline in the deficit in current transfers was mainly due to lower net remittances of private sector transfers (income taxes, social contributions and remittances of other transfers), as the deficit of government transfers widened slightly. In the first eight months, the balance of current transfers ran a deficit of EUR 23.9 m despite the successful absorption of EU funds (compared with a surplus of EUR 84.0 m in the same period last year). External financial transactions17 recorded a net outflow this year. More than half of the outflow was attributable to August's net outflow of EUR 170.9 m, which was primarily due to transactions in securities. The net outflow in the first eight months of the year amounted to EUR 324.7 m, compared with EUR 189.1 m in the same period last year. Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow again in August (EUR 167.7 m), as commercial banks and the government sector continued to repay their obligations to foreign portfolio investors. In the first eight months the net outflow of portfolio investment thus totalled EUR 1,508.6 (compared with a net inflow of EUR 2,300.3 m in the same period last year). Direct investment flows 17 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. remained weak in August and mainly limited to intercompany financing, with affiliated companies repaying loans to parent companies. In the first eight months direct investment posted a net inflow of EUR 315.7 m (EUR 365.0 m in the same period last year). The net inflow of other investment totalled just EUR 13.4 m, which was a result of the private sector's net deleveraging abroad and a net capital inflow to the BS. The BS obtained short-term liquid funds from the Eurosystem while withdrawing its deposits from foreign accounts. In the first eight months, other investment recorded a net inflow of EUR 900.4 m, largely due to the central bank's borrowing from the Eurosystem (see SEM 09/12, p. 18). Figure 35: Current and financial accounts of the balance of payments and TARGET218, v mio EUR ^HTARGET2 Financial account without TARGET 2 1 500 -Current account of the balance of payments 1,000 500 E 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 ^ rN J; J; Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Financial markets The volume of domestic bank loans to domestic nonbanking sector declined more notably again in September. Loan volume was down nearly EUR 150 m, mainly due to corporate deleveraging. Households, the government and NFIs were also repaying their debts, albeit to a lesser extent. In the first three quarters of the year the volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors thus declined by almost EUR 440 m, nearly two thirds more than in the same period last year. Banks still have to deal with liquidity pressures due to highly limited sources of finance. Net repayments of matured foreign liabilities remain high. Government deposits are leaving the banking system as well, and the outflows of household deposits have increased in recent months. After August's growth, the volume of household loans shrank again in September, by EUR 7.5 m. Housing loans were also down in September (by EUR 3.8 m), unlike in previous months. Household loans were up somewhat again, which is attributable to seasonal factors related to higher household expenses at the beginning of the school year. In the first three quarters of the year households net repaid just over EUR 115 m, in contrast to the same period last year when they increased borrowing by EUR 185 m. The difference is largely a result of lower borrowing in the form of housing loans and higher repayments of consumer loans. The decline in corporate and NFI borrowing from domestic banks strengthened in August, to almost EUR 130 m. Once again, the decline mainly resulted from corporate deleveraging (around EUR 120 m), while NFI deleveraging is slowing this year. Enterprises and NFIs reduced domestic bank loans by around EUR 640 m in the first three quarters, by over 60% more than in the same period last year. August recorded corporate and NFI net borrowing abroad, but net flows were fairly modest, EUR 2.2 m. Net borrowing was again a consequence of long-term net borrowing in the amount of EUR 13.5 m. In the first eight months enterprises and NFIs net repaid EUR 80 m in foreign loans, in contrast to the net borrowing of around EUR 250 m in the same period last year. In addition to the low confidence in Slovenian borrowers, the decline in foreign loans can also be attributed to the more modest lending activity in the EMU. The gap between domestic and foreign interest rates for corporate and NFI loans widened somewhat in August, exceeding 230 b.p., which indicates a further decline in the competitiveness of the lending conditions of domestic banks. Figure 36: Increase in household, corporate, NFI and government loans Households Enterprises and NFI^ Government-Total 700 600 500 400 300 200 E 100 •^U 0 iS -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 5Ž 5Ž :5 :5 <— CN 18 TARGET2 (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfers system 2) is the payment system through which central banks settle interbank payments and payments to customers. Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 11 30. IX 12 30. IX 12/ 31. VIII 12 30. IX 12/ 31. XII 11 30. IX 12/ 30. IX 11 Loans total 32,733.86 32,295.2 -0.4 -1.3 -2.9 Enterprises and NFI 22,065.54 21,429.1 -0.6 -2.9 -5.4 Government 1,214.88 1,528.0 -0.6 25.8 33.8 Households 9,453.45 9,338.1 -0.1 -1.2 -1.4 Consumer credits 2,723.04 2,554.2 -0.6 -6.2 -7.5 Lending for house purchase 5,163.55 5,249.6 -0.1 1.7 2.3 Other lending 1,566.85 1,534.3 0.8 -2.1 -2.7 Bank deposits total 15,097.17 14,982.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 Overnight deposits 6,440.82 6,585.0 -0.4 2.2 2.6 Short-term deposits 4,127.66 3,900.0 -0.8 -5.5 -6.5 Long-term deposits 4,521.12 4,490.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 7.57 7.4 -15.2 -2.4 2.4 Mutual funds 1,810.64 1,888.3 3.3 4.3 6.1 Government bank deposits, total 2,848.94 2,134.9 -0.6 -25.1 -30.6 Overnight deposits 139.72 66.6 -48.7 -52.3 -13.4 Short-term deposits 694.47 488.8 11.6 -29.6 -52.0 Long-term deposits 2,013.33 1,577.6 -0.2 -21.6 -20.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 1.42 1.8 148.9 29.5 -12.6 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Net repayments of foreign liabilities slowed somewhat in August. They were among the lowest this year, around EUR 130 m. Banks recorded net repayments of almost all types of foreign liabilities, particularly short-term loans and bank deposits. Banks have net repaid EUR 2.6 bn in foreign liabilities in the first eight months of the year. Figure 37: Net repayments of foreign liabilities by domestic banks 2,000 1,500 1,000 -500 -1,000 -1,500 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The outflow of government and household deposits from the banking system continued in September, particularly the outflow of household deposits, which were down around EUR 100 m. The maturity structure of deposits is deteriorating, as long-term deposits were down in particular, while short-term deposits dropped somewhat less. In the first three quarters household deposits declined by nearly EUR 115 m, while they had grown by around EUR 250 m in the same period last year. This significant difference is attributable to the highly negative movements in August and September, when household deposits declined by a total of EUR 240 m. The decline in government deposits eased slightly in September, totalling EUR 13.9 m. The government was withdrawing overnight deposits. Government deposits have shrank by more than EUR 700 m this year, unlike in the same period last year when they had risen by nearly EUR 400 m. The quality of bank assets continues to deteriorate and long-term prospects remain poor. The share of bad claims19 stood at 13.3% in August, up 2.1 p.p. on the end of 2011. Non-performing claims20 were rising in particular. The volume of C-rated claims dropped slightly, but this does not mean improvement in the banking sector yet. We estimate that the deterioration in the quality of claims in the last few months is no longer attributable solely to the tightened situation due to management buyouts or troubles in sectors tied to construction, but is also a consequence of the poor performance of the economy, which has not yet started to improve. With the rapid deterioration in the quality of their assets, banks are still under strong pressure of increasing impairments and provisions. Reaching EUR 85.7 m in September, impairments and provisions totalled as much as EUR 732.4 m in the first three quarters, a fifth more than in the same period last year. 19 C-, D- and E-rated claims. 20 D- and E-rated claims. ■i^ 0 Figure 38: Indebtedness of non-financial corporations in selected euro area countries1 in 2011 ■ Other liabilities BLoans BSecurities other than shares Box 6: Indebtedness of Slovenian companies In addition to the unfavourable situation in Slovenian banks due to their exposure to high liquidity pressures and a rapid deterioration in the quality of their assets, the modest lending activity in Slovenia can also be attributed to the indebtedness of Slovenian companies. Slovenian companies are among the most indebted companies in the euro area. To analyse indebtedness and the concentration of indebtedness of the Slovenian economy, we divided 57.177 companies into quintiles according to the volume of their financial liabilities to banks2 using data from profit and loss accounts collected by AJPES. The data show a strong concentration of financial liabilities of Slovenian companies to banks at the end of 2011. Merely 1.6% of all companies analysed are in the last four quintiles (80% of financial liabilities to banks). With regard to the average number of employees in the first four quintiles, we estimate that larger companies had much easier access to bank sources of finance than the majority of smaller companies in the first quintile.3 The lower availability of bank sources of finance for these companies may be a consequence of their smaller influence and weaker bargaining power, as well as a lack of information on business performance, based on which lenders decide whether or not to grant a loan. An important source of debt financing for companies in the first quintile was operating liabilities (which exceeded the financial liabilities to banks nearly twofold), other financial liabilities and, to a lesser extent, financial liabilities to other companies in the group.4 According to our estimate, these companies, facing limited bank sources, availed themselves of other means of debt financing, such as commercial credits. The majority of companies are thus significantly exposed to their business partners, which, along with low payment discipline, additionally suppresses liquidity and growth of the Slovenian economy. The indicators of indebtedness are high in all quintiles, meaning that over-indebtedness is a huge problem for the Slovenian economy. A high value of the indebtedness indicator,5 which is a ratio of debt to free cash flow (EBITDA),6 is therefore also recorded by companies in the first quintile, where bank financing plays a relatively less important role. This is a consequence of higher other "non-banking" debt, and according to our estimate, also a relatively modest EBITDA level. Table9: Selected data on companies in Slovenia for 2011 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. In EUR m Share of Financial liabilities to banks Financial liabilities to other companies in the group (in Slovenia and abroad) Other financial liabilities Operating liabilities Value added Average number of employees Number of companies financial liabilities to banks in total liabilities (in %) Debt-to-EBITDA ratio 1 4.038 2.840 4.098 11.416 10.316 5 56.257 9,7 7,6 2 4.038 342 611 2.135 1.833 71 679 36,5 11,9 3 4.034 185 271 1.546 1.822 214 176 36,4 9,8 4 3.955 287 523 1.728 1.879 684 49 31,0 7,6 5 4.134 262 848 1.421 1.342 1.562 16 39,2 10,5 Skupaj 20.200 3.917 6.351 18.245 17.192 8 57.177 23,2 8,6 Source: AJPES, calculations by IMAD. 1 For which data are available. 2 Taking into account company borrowing from domestic and foreign banks. 3 I.e. the quintile with the highest number of companies. 4 This type of financing was also typical for predominantly foreign-owned companies, which took advantage of the more favourable financing conditions on the market that had been reached by their parent companies/owners. 5 Companies with indicator values exceeding 5 are considered indebted. 6 Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (operating profit plus depreciation and amortization in a fiscal year). Figure 39: The shares of bad and non-performing claims and creation of impairments and reservation in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) — Share of bad claims (right axis) 390 360 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 40: Increase in bad claims in some more exposed activities ■ Construction ■ Manufacturing ■ Financial and insurance activities ■ Wholesale,retail; repair of mot. vehicles ■ Real estate activities V Other 1,100 -100 Jan -Aug 2011 Jan -Aug 2012 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance In the first nine months, revenue from taxes and social security contributions21 totalled EUR 9.9 bn, 0.2% less than in the same period last year. Among tax revenues, revenues from excise duties22 were up in particular (8.1%), primarily revenue from excise duties on energy (9.9%) 21 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-September 2012, Public Payments Administration. 22 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. due to higher sales of main energy products.23 Revenues from excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products and excise duties on alcohol and alcohol products were also up (5.7% and 2.3%, respectively), mainly due to higher excise duty rates,24 as the sales of these products continue to decline.25 Revenue from corporate income tax was down 17.6% y-o-y as a result of the tax assessments according to business results for 2011 and lower monthly prepayments than in 2011. In view of modest domestic spending, revenue from value added tax was up only 0.4% and wage-related contributions and taxes 0.1%. Figure 41: Taxes and social security contributions Taxes and contributions, in EUR m (left axis) -Taxes and contributions, in % (right axis) a a a a Source: PPA; calculations by IMAD. According to the consolidated balance26 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 8.5 bn and general government expenditure EUR 9.5 bn in the first seven months of 2012. Revenue was down 0.1% y-o-y (in the same period last year, up 6.9%), expenditure 1.3% (last year, up 2.1%). Looking at the economic structure of expenditure, expenditure on interest recorded the strongest growth (22.5%), followed by payments to the EU budget (10.6%). All other main expenditure categories declined, most notably capital expenditures and capital transfers (-10.8%) and expenditure on subsidies (-6.8%). Expenditure on goods and services was also down (-1.9%), as were salaries and wages, contributions and other personnel expenditures (-1.6%). Transfers to individuals and households were 1.9% lower y-o-y (excluding 23 In the period from January to August 2012, the quantities of main mineral oils sold were up 6.6% (D-2 by 11.7%, but with a tendency to fall from month to month). 24 Excise duties on alcohol and alcohol products were raised in April; excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products in April and July. 2 In the period from January to August 2012, the quantities of tobacco and tobacco products sold were 2.9% lower and the quantities of alcohol and alcohol products sold 1.7% lower y-o-y. 26 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds (the Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance, and the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia). Table 10: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-IX 12 IX 12/IX11 I-IX 12/I-IX 11 I-IX 11 I-IX 12 General government revenue - total 9,855.9 0.3 -0.2 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 427.4 -22.2 -17.6 5.3 4.3 Personal income tax 1,434.8 -7.7 -4.7 15.2 14.6 Value added tax 2,154.9 27.3 0.4 21.7 21.9 Excise duties 1,167.9 8.0 8.1 10.9 11.8 Social security contributions 3,888.1 -5.5 1.8 38.7 39.4 Other general government revenues 782.8 -9.9 -2.8 8.2 7.9 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Note: *The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. pensions 3.9%). Among them, expenditure on transfers to the unemployed strengthened somewhat in June and July, which mitigated slightly their y-o-y drop (-7.4%). Social security transfers (-9.4%) and family benefits and parental compensation (-6.8%) remained lower y-o-y. Both categories declined more than a month earlier. According to our estimate, the declines in individual categories of transfers are due to the beginning of the enforcement of the Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act.27 Sickness benefits continue to grow y-o-y. In the first seven months they were up 4.9%. Pension expenditure has declined y-o-y for the third month in a row, being down 0.7% in the first seven months. As a result of the freeze on pensions according to the intervention law, pensions were not valorised in February and the annual supplement was, in line with the ZUJF provisions, significantly lower and disbursed only in July, two months later than in previous years. The public finance deficit amounted to EUR 1,013 m in the first seven months as a whole, EUR 122 m less than a year Figure 42: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,500 1,450 1,150 1,100 - General government revenue -General government expenditure Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Table 11: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2011 2012 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VIII 12 EUR m I-VIII 12/ I-VIII 11 Revenue - total 14,981.3 42.0 1.3 8,518.3 -0.1 - Tax revenues 13,209.3 37.1 2.8 7,545.7 -0.5 - Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 7.6 9.3 1,444.0 -8.0 - Social security contributions 5,267.6 14.8 0.6 3,107.5 1.8 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,856.4 13.6 1.6 2,825.3 1.6 - Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 2.3 12.5 472.1 7.0 Expenditure - total 16,543.8 46.4 -0.9 9,530.9 -1.3 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,882.8 10.9 -0.8 2,261.7 -1.6 - Purchases of goods and services 2,442.0 6.9 -2.7 1,381.4 -1.9 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 526.6 1.5 7.9 518.4 22.5 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,533.1 18.3 4.1 3,809.8 -1.9 - Capital expenditure 1,023.0 2.9 -21.6 421.2 -5.1 - Capital transfers 371.7 1.0 -4.3 114.8 -26.9 - Payment to the EU budget 405.1 1.1 2.1 267.9 10.6 Deficit -1,562.4 -4.4 - -1,012.6 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. 27 The law entered into force on 1 January 2012. earlier. The deficit of the state budget (EUR 970 m) was EUR 142 m lower than in the same period last year; the deficit of the health fund (EUR 68 m) was EUR 28 m higher. The total balance of local government budgets recorded a surplus of EUR 20 m in the first seven months. The transfer from the state budget to the pension fund (for all obligations) amounted to EUR 819 m, EUR 130 m less than in the same period last year. In October, the Slovenian government issued a USD 2.25 bn 10-year bond with a coupon of 5.5%. Swapped back to euros, Slovenia was able to achieve better funding with this USD transaction than a comparable EUR transaction. The transaction attracted large interest from investors whose orders reached about USD 12 bn, which was reflected in the yield that was lower than initial price guidance. In September Slovenia received more funds from the EU budget than in August (EUR 41.5 m), but its budgetary position was lower. As a result of September's higher payments into the EU budget (up EUR 2.7 m on August, EUR 32.6 m in total), Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget declined to EUR 8.9 m (in August 11.0 m). In the first nine months this year, Slovenia received EUR 552.9 m from the EU budget, 62.2% of the level planned in the revised budget for 2012. The highest realisation (76.0%) was recorded for receipts under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, and the lowest for receipts from the Cohesion Fund (41.6%). In the same period, Slovenia paid EUR 330.4 m into the EU budget, 81.9% of all funds it is expected to pay this year. In the first nine months Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the amount of EUR 222.4 m (last year EUR 244.2 m). Figure 43: Planned and absorbed EU funds ■ Funds planned in the revised state budget for 2012 ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2011 ■ Total receipts in 2012 (January-September) ■ Total receipts in 2011 (January-December) Common Agricultural Policy 100 200 300 400 500 In EUR m M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! The Doing Business 2013 report by the World Bank Slovenia has retained its ranking according to the World Bank's Doing Business report, and there have been no major changes among the top ranking countries. Out of the 185 evaluated countries, Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand top the scale, as in previous years. Two out of the first ten countries are from the EU (Denmark and the United Kingdom). One of the factors all these countries have in common, besides the ease to start a business, is a business-friendly regulatory environment for existing businesses. This year's report ranks Slovenia 35'h out of all countries surveyed (the same place as last year) and 15'h among EU Member States (also unchanged from last year), which is higher than according to other competitiveness surveys, for instance, by the WEF and the IMD. The World Bank's methodology of measuring the ease of doing business takes into account only the indicator of the quality of regulatory environment,28 while the subjective estimates of managers and the current macroeconomic conditions (which are factored in by the competitiveness indicators of the WEF and IMD) have no impact on the results. Slovenia made it significantly easier to do business in the period between 2005 and 2012. To be able to assess countries' progress over time, the World Bank introduced a distance to frontier measure,29 which enables a year-to-year comparison relative to the best-performing countries. As in the latest report the calculation again underwent methodological changes,30 the countries' rankings are no longer easily comparable with those in previous years. They can only be assessed relative to the results in the preceding year, which were re-calculated by the current year methodology. The calculation of frontier values for Slovenia shows that Slovenia noticeably reduced its lag behind the best-ranked countries in the period between 2005 and 2013, largely by virtue of measures making it easier and faster to start a business. Poland and the Czech Republic were the only countries to advance faster than Slovenia in this period. The main factor that prevented even faster progress and where Slovenia's position deteriorated was access to funding for businesses. According to the World Bank report, Slovenia has made it much easier to do business in the last year31 by implementing three major changes. In the area of paying taxes, it simplified the procedures by implementing electronic filing and payment of social security contributions 28 It is based on data collected from registers, regulations, decrees and surveys of public officials. The comparison is based on the number of the necessary procedures and the time and costs involved. 29 For a description of the methodology see Doing Business 2013, p. 131, available at http://www.doingbusiness.org/. 30 Last year, Slovenia was 37th, but its ranking for last year was revised upwards by 2 places with the change in methodology and the new calculation this year. 31 The survey was conducted in the first half of this year. and reduced the profit tax rate. This was reflected in its ranking, which improved by 17 places, to 63rd. Slovenia also adopted measures to improve investor protection, shortened certain procedures in resolving insolvency and increased the protection of debtors and employees in bankruptcy proceedings. In the last year, Slovenia's ranking has advanced in three areas,32 remained unchanged in one and slipped in five. Slovenia scores highest on the indicator of investor protection (17'h), being also relatively high on the ease of starting a business (30'h) and getting electricity (31s'), but on the latter it slipped slightly relative to the previous year. On access to finance, where it scores very low, Slovenia declined further (by 7 places to 104'h), which has to do with insufficient legislation and a lack of a good credit information system for users. However, it should be noted than the decline is not attributable to a deterioration of the situation, but to other countries having adopted appropriate measures and improving their ranks. Burdensome procedures33 for obtaining documentation and permits are still a major obstacle to doing business in Slovenia. According to the World Bank figures, it takes 110 days to register real estate (or property) and 199 days to get a building permit. Procedures involving private/ commercial applicants tend to be much shorter, while the most time-consuming procedures are obtaining a building permit from the administrative unit and registration of construction projects in official records (60 days and 45 days, respectively). Contract enforcement also takes very long (1290 days), much longer than in other comparable countries (the OECD average is 510 days). Table 12: Slovenia's ranking according to the Business" report 'Doing Rank Change 2011 2012 2012/2011 Ease of doing business 35 35 0 Starting a business 28 30 -2 Dealing with construction permits 61 61 0 Registering property 79 83 -4 Getting electricity 30 31 -1 Getting credit 97 104 -7 Protecting investors 24 17 +7 Paying taxes 80 63 +17 Trading across borders 54 57 -3 Enforcing contracts 57 56 +1 Resolving insolvency 39 42 -3 Note: The survey included 185 countries. Because of methodologic year's rankings can only be compared with last year's. Source: Doing Business, World Bank , 2012. ^l changes, this 32 The ease on doing business index includes 11 areas, i.e. starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registering property, getting electricity, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. 33 The procedures are calculated based on a typical business operating in the capital of a given country. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Autumn forecast 2012 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 7.0 3.4 -7.8 1.2 0.6 -2.0 -1.4 0.9 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 34,594 37,244 35,556 35,607 36,172 35,700 35,495 36,129 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 17,135 18,420 17,415 17,379 17,620 17,457 17,327 17,610 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,100 22,700 20,600 20,800 21,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 91 87 85 84 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,859 36,262 34,868 35,029 35,670 34,970 34,626 35,235 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,618 35,923 34,693 35,085 35,776 35,099 34,946 35,271 Rate of registered unemployment 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 11.9 13.1 13.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.3 9.1 9.1 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.5 0.8 -6.1 3.5 2.2 -0.6 0.9 1.4 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.8 2.2 1.8 Inflation,2 end of the year 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 3.3 1.9 1.8 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.7 4.0 -16.7 10.1 7.0 0.1 1.9 4.7 Exports of goods 13.9 1.8 -17.4 11.9 8.5 -0.3 1.8 5.0 Exports of services 13.2 14.3 -13.7 3.7 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 16.7 3.7 -19.5 7.9 5.2 -5.2 -1.0 3.8 Imports of goods 16.2 3.0 -20.7 8.9 6.1 -5.1 -1.0 3.9 Imports of services 19.7 8.2 -12.0 2.7 -0.3 -5.9 -0.8 3.2 Current account balance, in EUR million -1,646 -2,295 -246 -209 2 810 1,363 1,142 As a per cent share relative to GDP -4.8 -6.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 2.3 3.8 3.2 Gross external debt, in EUR million 34,783 39,234 40,294 40,723 40,241 40,4065 As a per cent share relative to GDP 100.5 105.3 113.3 114.4 111.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.267 1.240 1.322 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 6.1 3.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 1.5 As a % of GDP4 52.4 53.2 55.8 56.0 56.8 57.1 56.6 56.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 0.6 6.1 2.9 1.5 -0.9 -3.5 -0.7 0.3 As a % of GDP4 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.8 20.6 19.8 19.3 19.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 7.8 -23.3 -8.3 -10.7 -1.5 4.0 3.0 As a % of GDP4 27.8 28.8 23.4 21.6 19.5 19.4 20.0 20.3 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 20'2). Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End August 20'2. PRODUCTION 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 12 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -17.4 6.2 2.2 10.7 7.2 7.4 8.7 3.6 0.1 -3.0 0.5 -0.9 12.4 4.0 4.8 4.3 13.8 B Mining and quarrying -2.9 11.0 -8.1 11.9 23.7 15.7 -5.6 -9.3 -9.3 -7.9 -9.9 -1.9 37.4 19.2 20.7 -2.5 39.7 C Manufacturing -18.7 6.6 2.1 12.0 7.3 7.1 9.1 3.7 -0.3 -3.6 -0.1 -2.2 13.1 3.0 4.8 5.0 12.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -6.6 1.8 5.0 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.9 3.8 5.1 4.0 8.3 12.8 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.4 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -21.0 -17.0 -25.6 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -25.3 -31.1 -25.4 -20.1 -17.7 -16.5 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 Buildings -22.6 -14.0 -39.7 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -41.5 -46.5 -34.3 -35.9 -13.0 -6.7 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 Civil engineering -19.9 -18.9 -15.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -6.3 -20.7 -20.0 -10.0 -21.2 -21.1 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport -9.2 7.9 3.2 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 1.5 3.6 11.7 6.0 -5.3 - - Tonne-km in rail transport -24.2 28.2 9.7 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 10.8 8.5 -1.6 -8.7 -8.0 - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -13.0 3.6 3.1 4.9 4.7 5.8 7.5 3.6 2.9 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 5.0 6.8 4.2 9.0 4.1 Real turnover in retail trade -10.6 -0.1 1.4 0.3 2.0 1.8 3.4 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.5 -2.7 1.0 3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -21.7 12.1 6.6 15.4 11.8 15.0 15.8 9.9 4.4 -1.9 -2.8 -7.2 16.2 15.3 10.7 20.2 14.1 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -21.4 1.4 5.8 4.0 5.5 3.7 12.2 3.8 4.5 3.4 3.5 -0.6 7.9 5.6 1.1 4.8 5.3 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -3.4 -1.5 5.3 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 6.6 6.6 3.1 0.7 1.2 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 2.8 -4.2 0.5 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -8.0 0.7 9.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 11.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 5.1 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) -7.8 2.8 3.7 1.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 4.8 2.2 6.8 4.5 4.9 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 449.3 454.5 478.9 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 113.3 125.7 139.5 108.4 110.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values««) Sentiment indicator -22 -9 -7 -9 -6 -8 -7 -4 -6 -10 -12 -16 -7 -7 -7 -8 -8 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -23 -1 0 -1 2 1 3 3 -1 -7 -5 -11 1 1 4 -1 -1 - in construction -50 -57 -46 -60 -56 -53 -52 -46 -44 -43 -40 -43 -57 -51 -50 -54 -56 - in services -14 -3 1 -6 -2 -2 1 3 3 -4 -8 -8 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 - in retail trade -12 7 8 7 12 10 6 12 2 12 6 5 13 10 11 8 11 Consumer confidence indicator -30 -25 -25 -22 -27 -25 -27 -25 -25 -24 -26 -36 -27 -26 -26 -24 -26 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2011 2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13.8 6.5 6.5 3.3 4.3 3.1 -1.5 -1.5 2.8 -1.9 0.6 -8.0 0.9 3.8 -2.6 3.1 -3.3 -2.2 4.1 4.2 -6.4 -1.2 -8.4 -4.7 -22.1 0.2 -8.5 -17.3 -1.7 -6.0 -2.5 -16.3 7.3 -10.6 -22.9 -7.6 10.0 -6.6 -5.6 -0.4 14.6 6.6 6.9 3.2 4.9 3.1 -1.9 -2.4 3.0 -2.6 -0.5 -8.2 0.7 2.8 -3.0 3.2 -4.8 -4.4 2.4 2.8 - - 11.0 6.3 3.6 5.7 3.2 2.4 4.4 11.8 -0.4 4.7 13.1 -4.0 3.5 16.1 5.5 5.4 9.9 23.9 23.0 15.9 - - -20.9 -23.6 -29.7 -27.0 -29.3 -36.2 -27.0 -31.2 -17.5 -25.4 -9.6 -24.6 -24.4 -26.6 -5.0 -14.6 -23.2 -11.1 -19.9 -14.8 -25.9 -41.2 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -36.0 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 -28.6 -44.5 -31.1 -31.0 27.6 -7.2 -15.6 4.4 -24.2 -13.0 -15.4 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 0.7 -7.0 -18.1 -22.8 -22.0 -18.8 -26.5 -17.2 -17.6 -15.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8.7 9.8 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.4 0.0 6.3 2.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 2.6 1.0 -1.8 -4.0 -5.2 -3.7 -0.6 -3.4 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 -0.9 -1.1 5.6 2.1 0.5 1.3 -1.1 4.0 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 -0.7 19.2 18.3 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 8.0 3.0 1.3 -3.6 -3.4 -0.1 -3.5 -4.8 -5.1 -8.8 -7.7 -0.6 -9.9 11.2 15.4 10.4 4.2 6.2 1.1 -0.3 8.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 -0.9 8.6 4.1 -0.9 0.1 0.4 -2.3 7.2 1.8 - - 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10.6 4.1 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.0 1.2 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 7.9 -1.9 1.3 2.5 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3.4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 -3.3 -0.3 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 -1.6 0.9 -9.9 -4.1 - - 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.2 5.8 0.6 4.5 1.9 9.4 14.1 -3.7 8.4 6.3 - - 7.2 4.9 5.2 7.0 0.5 6.8 2.1 4.7 7.6 -1.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 -3.6 1.4 -1.0 2.5 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 - - 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 48.9 44.0 46.7 34.3 35.1 39.0 37.0 38.3 35.1 47.2 37.9 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 -10 -10 -12 -12 -12 -16 -14 -17 -16 -19 -21 -23 3 4 3 5 3 1 0 -2 -2 -8 -7 -5 -3 -5 -8 -10 -11 -13 -12 -15 -16 -17 -55 -50 -50 -48 -44 -45 -46 -43 -43 -43 -46 -41 -42 -39 -39 -44 -43 -43 -41 -36 -41 -43 1 -2 4 5 2 3 3 5 2 0 -3 -9 -10 -9 -4 -7 -7 -10 -11 -14 -17 -20 7 12 0 9 15 12 2 -8 11 13 13 10 6 7 6 8 2 4 1 0 4 -2 -26 -28 -26 -26 -25 -23 -24 -28 -22 -26 -26 -20 -27 -26 -26 -39 -33 -37 -36 -36 -44 -39 LABOUR MARKET 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 9 10 11 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 944.5 935.5 934.7 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 937.5 931.1 933.3 926.6 923.7 934.1 938.2 937.2 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 858.2 835.0 824.0 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 828.4 823.9 821.7 812.7 816.5 836.2 835.5 833.4 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.9 33.4 38.8 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 35.2 37.8 34.0 33.3 33.3 In industry, construction 306.9 287.3 272.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 274.2 272.7 271.0 265.4 266.3 286.6 285.8 283.9 Of which: in manufacturing 199.8 188.6 184.8 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 184.7 184.4 186.2 184.6 184.1 188.1 188.4 187.9 in construction 86.8 78.5 67.8 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 69.3 67.9 64.4 60.5 61.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 In services 513.4 514.3 512.3 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.1 512.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 Of which: in public administration 51.5 52.0 51.4 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.9 51.2 52.1 52.0 52.0 in education, health-services, social work 113.8 116.7 118.8 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 118.8 118.5 120.1 120.7 121.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 767.4 747.2 729.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 731.9 728.9 727.4 720.9 722.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 In enterprises and organisations 699.4 685.7 671.8 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 673.9 671.3 670.7 666.4 667.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 By those self-employed 67.9 61.5 57.2 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 58.0 57.6 56.6 54.5 55.4 61.0 60.5 59.8 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 90.8 87.8 94.9 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 96.5 95.0 94.4 91.8 93.8 88.9 88.8 88.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 86.4 100.5 110.7 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 109.1 107.2 111.6 114.0 107.2 97.9 102.7 103.8 Female 42.4 47.9 52.1 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 53.3 53.2 51.0 47.7 49.8 49.5 By age: under 26 13.3 13.9 12.9 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 12.6 11.3 13.4 12.7 10.8 12.2 15.7 15.1 aged over 50 26.2 31.4 39.0 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 39.1 38.7 38.2 39.2 38.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 Unskilled 34.1 37.5 39.5 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 39.2 38.1 39.3 41.0 39.2 36.7 37.2 37.5 For more than 1 year 31.5 42.8 50.2 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 53.8 57.2 55.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 Those receiving benefits 27.4 30.0 36.3 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 36.4 34.9 34.4 37.8 33.2 29.4 28.2 29.7 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.1 10.7 11.8 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.5 12.0 12.3 11.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 Male 8.3 10.1 11.4 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 11.1 9.7 10.1 10.4 Female 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.3 11.5 12.0 11.9 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 30.4 13.3 2.7 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 -6.9 0.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 -1.1 4.8 1.1 New unemployed first-job seekers 17.0 16.8 14.4 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 6.5 2.4 1.9 1.4 6.3 1.4 Redundancies 90.5 83.5 82.2 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 16.8 18.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 6.7 7.1 8.2 Registered unemployed who found employment 48.6 57.0 61.0 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 17.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 14.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.5 29.9 32.8 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 8.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 11.1 2.4 3.8 3.6 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 161.3 174.6 194.5 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 52.9 52.3 43.8 44.9 41.2 15.8 17.4 14.7 For a fixed term, in % 78.1 80.7 81.7 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 81.4 82.9 83.4 82.6 81.4 80.4 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 54.9 41.6 35.6 42.1 40.7 39.4 38.0 35.5 34.7 34.3 34.2 34.4 40.7 40.2 39.4 As % of labour force 5.8 4.4 3.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 NEW JOBS 111.4 104.1 118.3 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 37.4 30.8 27.3 13.0 10.9 8.8 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS. 2010 2011 2012 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 937.7 936.3 931.7 930.0 931.5 935.3 934.5 930.1 927.5 927.1 925.4 926.0 923.7 921.3 917.4 914.5 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 829.0 829.2 824.2 823.0 824.5 824.4 823.4 817.3 811.6 812.0 814.5 816.9 816.9 815.7 810.5 808.4 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.1 37.9 35.2 35.1 35.3 37.7 37.8 37.9 37.2 37.4 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 274.7 274.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 273.5 272.1 267.4 265.4 264.7 266.1 266.6 266.6 265.7 264.0 263.2 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 185.1 184.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 186.8 186.6 185.1 184.6 184.6 184.6 184.4 184.2 183.8 182.9 182.5 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 69.4 69.4 68.4 68.4 67.0 66.2 65.0 62.1 60.7 59.9 61.0 61.7 61.8 61.4 60.5 60.2 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 514.3 514.7 512.7 511.4 513.1 512.8 513.2 512.0 510.9 512.2 513.1 512.6 512.5 512.1 509.3 507.9 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.5 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.2 50.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 51.2 51.2 50.8 50.8 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.0 118.2 118.1 119.3 119.8 120.2 120.3 119.9 120.8 121.5 121.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 119.8 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 732.5 732.6 729.0 728.1 729.7 730.1 729.0 723.0 719.6 720.3 722.7 723.0 723.1 722.1 717.7 715.6 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 674.3 674.4 671.1 670.5 672.2 672.7 671.9 667.6 665.2 666.1 667.9 667.7 667.7 666.7 662.8 660.9 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.9 57.5 57.4 57.4 57.0 55.5 54.5 54.2 54.8 55.3 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.7 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 94.5 94.3 91.9 91.8 91.8 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.8 92.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 108.6 107.1 107.6 107.0 107.0 110.9 111.1 112.8 116.0 115.0 110.9 106.8 106.8 105.6 106.9 106.1 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.0 51.3 53.5 53.4 53.2 54.2 53.4 52.0 51.7 50.9 50.5 51.2 50.9 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.0 11.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 10.1 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.2 37.9 38.4 39.6 39.4 38.6 38.5 38.1 37.7 37.9 37.4 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 38.4 38.1 37.9 38.3 38.7 39.0 40.1 41.4 41.6 40.0 40.0 39.0 38.4 38.2 37.7 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.8 52.9 56.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 55.4 55.0 54.7 54.6 54.6 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 37.5 36.4 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.4 33.9 33.7 35.5 38.5 38.3 36.7 34.2 33.4 31.9 32.1 32.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 3.9 0.2 1.7 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 -0.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.4 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.2 10.6 6.1 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.6 8.0 5.6 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 7.1 5.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 17.8 19.3 15.5 17.2 19.5 15.8 14.3 13.6 15.6 13.1 16.2 14.0 14.2 13.0 15.4 16.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 82.1 79.3 80.9 83.5 83.9 84.0 81.6 78.5 80.3 82.7 85.7 83.3 83.9 83.0 83.7 84.6 38.5 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.4 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.5 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.7 34.4 34.1 33.8 33.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.5 12.3 11.9 12.6 12.8 11.8 8.4 10.6 10.0 9.0 8.4 8.2 7.0 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 10 11 12 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.4 3.9 2.0 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.3 2.7 4.1 3.1 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.2 5.8 3.1 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 -1.0 5.6 5.9 9.3 B Mining and quarrying 0.9 4.0 3.8 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 8.4 10.6 -0.4 0.8 18.6 C Manufacturing 0.8 9.0 3.9 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.4 2.5 5.1 8.3 6.8 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.8 3.7 2.3 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 5.2 3.5 -0.5 5.6 3.9 -3.4 13.0 1.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.0 2.2 -0.1 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 F Constrution 1.0 4.4 2.0 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1.9 3.7 2.8 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.1 1.6 4.2 4.5 2.9 H Transportation and storage 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.6 2.2 0.6 2.6 4.0 2.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 1.6 4.0 2.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 5.1 4.1 4.3 J Information and communication 1.4 2.6 0.9 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.3 1.3 1.1 5.9 3.3 K Financial and insurance activities -0.7 1.0 0.6 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 L Real estate activities 1.9 3.0 2.9 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.4 1.6 1.1 -1.3 0.8 2.3 -0.4 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 2.1 1.6 -0.4 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.2 1.4 0.8 N Administrative and support service activities 1.8 4.1 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 2.7 3.0 0.3 5.5 5.7 3.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.9 -0.6 0.3 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 1.3 0.6 -0.9 P Education 3.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.9 0.5 -0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 S Other service activities 1.3 4.2 0.9 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 5.4 3.7 1.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal 1.1 -2.1 -0.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6 -1.8 -0.6 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 -2.3 -3.0 -2.7 Real (deflator ULC) 6.5 -1.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -2.8 -2.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 -2.2 -3.4 USD/EUR 1.3933 1.3268 1.3917 1.2727 1.2910 1.3593 1.3669 1.4393 1.4126 1.3480 '.3''0 1.2826 1.3898 1.3661 1.3220 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Change in the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012; the new source ECB, before that own calculations (IMAD). 2Harmonised effective exchange rate - 20 group of trading partners and 17 Euro area countries; a rise in the value indicates appreciation of national currency and vice versa. 2011 2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 6.8 3.4 -1.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 -3.5 2.1 0.3 -2.1 -0.1 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 -1.9 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 4.3 6.6 9.7 2.2 6.8 10.0 11.9 3.8 4.0 14.9 13.2 1.4 5.4 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.8 5.2 3.4 2.8 4.6 1.8 4.5 3.8 1.9 2.7 3.9 1.0 4.3 1.3 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 7.2 6.8 3.6 4.7 2.2 3.7 -8.1 5.6 5.5 8.0 3.6 5.2 6.5 0.3 4.0 2.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.3 -1.2 3.3 1.1 2.2 -7.5 -1.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 -2.5 4.0 -0.1 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 1.6 3.4 -0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 1.1 1.4 -3.1 -1.3 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 -1.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 2.4 4.3 2.4 3.3 2.2 1.0 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.7 0.5 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 9.6 4.0 -1.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 -1.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 -1.9 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.7 -1.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 3.2 0.9 -0.6 -6.2 0.5 1.5 8.4 3.8 -0.4 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 -1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.9 0.5 -2.9 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.1 2.0 -0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 -0.9 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 -3.6 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 -1.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.8 2.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.2 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.6 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 1.3360 1.3649 1.3999 1.4442 1.4349 1.4388 1.4264 1.4343 1.3770 1.3706 1.3556 1.3179 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 1.3162 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 1.2400 PRICES 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 7 8 9 10 11 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.6 1.0 4.4 2.6 2.0 3.9 5.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.7 7.2 5.7 7.3 8.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 5.1 7.2 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 Clothing and footwear -0.6 -1.9 -1.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 0.9 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas -0.3 10.2 5.6 12.0 9.0 6.8 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.4 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 Furnishings, household equipment 4.0 1.4 2.7 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 Medical, pharmaceutical products 4.0 2.1 1.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.3 -0.2 1.4 0.2 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 Transport -3.0 -0.3 1.0 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 Communications -4.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.3 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 Recreation and culture 3.0 0.4 -1.5 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 -0.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 Education 3.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 4.3 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 Catering services 4.4 -2.5 -6.8 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.8 1.4 2.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.2 3.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 HCPI 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.2 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.9 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -1.3 2.1 4.5 3.4 3.8 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 Domestic market -0.4 2.0 3.8 2.8 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 Non-domestic market -2.2 2.2 5.3 4.0 4.4 6.9 5.5 4.6 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 euro area -3.5 2.2 6.1 4.0 4.8 8.2 6.5 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 non-euro area 0.3 2.1 3.6 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.4 2.0 1.3 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 Import price indices -3.3 7.4 5.4 7.8 8.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.5 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices -12.3 16.5 10.9 15.9 15.3 15.1 9.9 8.3 10.8 12.1 12.5 14.5 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 Oil products -12.0 17.3 11.9 13.5 14.6 15.7 10.5 9.9 11.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 Transport & communications 0.6 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other controlled prices 4.9 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Direct control - total -6.9 14.2 2.8 14.4 12.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 2.1 7.3 9.5 11.0 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on ' July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control. 2010 2011 2012 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.1 7.4 7.1 7.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.8 -0.3 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.5 4.7 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 -3.2 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 5.7 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 8.9 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 3.7 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 5.6 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.2 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 2.7 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 11.9 9.7 10.3 12.0 13.8 14.7 11.8 10.9 10.1 14.6 18.8 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 12.7 10.3 10.5 12.2 14.2 15.3 11.9 10.8 9.2 14.4 19.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 1.3 2.0 9.5 10.6 11.1 9.0 8.5 7.9 11.0 14.0 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 8 9 10 11 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -246 -209 2 -107 -61 -62 55 73 -91 -36 -15 262 -55 6 -40 -40 Goods1 -498 -997 -1,043 -225 -185 -447 -227 -219 -214 -383 -212 -93 -111 -48 -134 -128 Exports 16,410 18,762 21,265 4,778 4,732 4,962 5,179 5,486 5,245 5,354 5,328 5,494 1,329 1,767 1,695 1,742 Imports 16,908 19,759 22,308 5,003 4,917 5,409 5,406 5,705 5,458 5,738 5,540 5,587 1,440 1,815 1,829 1,869 Services 1,165 1,285 1,443 341 341 314 316 399 358 370 405 449 113 141 131 87 Exports 4,347 4,616 4,839 1,120 1,343 1,174 1,052 1,186 1,381 1,219 1,114 1,244 447 436 392 356 Imports 3,182 3,331 3,396 779 1,002 860 736 787 1,023 849 709 795 333 295 262 269 Income -754 -599 -550 -182 -226 -116 -85 -143 -238 -84 -175 -119 -64 -63 -36 -44 Receipts 666 574 918 167 140 160 204 237 220 257 180 226 43 41 44 43 Expenditure 1,420 1,173 1,469 349 366 276 289 380 459 341 355 345 107 105 80 87 Current transfers -159 102 153 -41 8 188 52 36 3 61 -33 25 6 -24 -2 45 Receipts 959 1,203 1,373 219 273 448 378 320 311 364 334 351 89 68 90 125 Expenditure 1,119 1,100 1,220 260 265 260 326 284 308 302 367 326 82 91 92 80 Capital and financial account 175 535 -452 291 230 -2 48 -244 -84 -172 137 -246 -27 101 86 -223 Capital account 14 53 -102 11 24 -37 -7 -6 -8 -82 6 26 -1 30 18 6 Financial account 161 482 -350 280 206 35 55 -239 -77 -89 131 -273 -26 71 68 -229 Direct investment -657 431 638 100 82 358 -9 240 246 160 224 47 44 -60 83 230 Domestic abroad -187 160 -81 86 46 54 -15 31 55 -152 2 89 34 -5 1 53 Foreign in Slovenia -470 271 719 14 36 304 6 209 191 313 222 -42 10 -55 81 177 Portfolio investment 4,628 1,956 1,838 509 -51 392 2,592 -300 -440 -15 -935 213 -29 -101 71 183 Financial derivatives -2 -117 -136 -65 -14 -15 -80 -15 -24 -18 -20 -10 -4 -5 -8 -4 Other investment -3,976 -1,806 -2,762 -214 171 -689 -2,457 -177 108 -236 822 -517 -33 211 -96 -622 Assets -267 783 -1,461 -591 536 594 -1,525 -159 -349 572 -1,477 -91 -201 38 -166 -632 Commercial credits 416 -174 -47 -213 30 232 -322 -88 44 319 -349 -34 195 -158 -101 -77 Loans -1 203 -52 510 21 20 -99 -22 48 22 4 -97 18 -124 -33 -3 Currency and deposits -603 672 -1,315 -883 391 346 -1,109 -48 -408 250 -1,143 14 -487 309 -19 -547 Other assets -80 81 -46 -6 94 -4 5 0 -33 -18 10 26 73 12 -13 -5 Liabilities -3,708 -2,589 -1,301 378 -365 -1,283 -932 -18 457 -808 2,300 -425 168 173 70 10 Commercial credits -452 362 94 262 -63 72 199 -18 -85 -3 167 138 -182 149 134 62 Loans -2,911 -986 -1,235 -189 -8 -385 -388 -298 203 -753 -145 -291 -21 53 -240 242 Deposits -318 -1,954 -169 358 -305 -928 -787 334 340 -57 2,287 -288 348 -46 180 -288 Other liabilities -27 -11 9 -54 12 -42 42 -36 0 3 -10 16 23 17 -5 -7 International reserves2 167 19 72 -50 18 -11 9 12 33 19 39 -6 -4 25 19 -16 Statistical error 71 -326 450 -184 -170 64 -104 171 175 207 -122 -16 82 -107 -45 262 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,788 1,834 1,999 461 450 516 446 517 506 530 469 539 125 161 167 171 Intermediate goods 8,117 10,044 11,906 2,559 2,574 2,662 2,904 3,097 3,001 2,904 3,038 3,071 719 966 930 941 Consumer goods 6,189 6,550 6,909 1,674 1,627 1,694 1,737 1,757 1,622 1,792 1,682 1,728 459 613 570 601 Import of investment goods 2,295 2,323 2,504 616 579 671 563 616 589 736 553 582 150 248 191 229 Intermediate goods 9,839 12,210 14,010 3,083 3,059 3,339 3,500 3,588 3,452 3,471 3,610 3,556 895 1,115 1,162 1,138 Consumer goods 5,021 5,522 5,938 1,367 1,360 1,493 1,390 1,526 1,501 1,522 1,428 1,399 422 483 502 542 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 2011 2012 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 18 37 -54 73 49 -94 117 26 -127 10 70 2 -107 -51 -112 148 68 98 96 62 -30 -186 -47 -91 -89 -73 -162 16 20 -137 -97 -51 -108 -224 -111 -49 -51 -5 -42 -46 40 -94 1,525 1,582 1,655 1,942 1,747 1,882 1,857 1,782 1,534 1,929 1,830 1,901 1,622 1,639 1,713 1,976 1,790 1,844 1,859 1,812 1,581 1,711 1,628 1,746 2,031 1,820 2,043 1,842 1,762 1,671 2,025 1,882 2,010 1,846 1,751 1,762 2,027 1,795 1,887 1,905 1,772 1,675 96 110 83 122 145 122 132 81 122 155 151 125 94 147 99 159 142 183 125 86 129 425 341 317 394 400 381 406 459 459 463 416 382 421 375 323 417 393 435 416 484 475 329 231 234 271 255 258 274 378 337 308 265 257 327 228 223 258 250 253 292 398 347 -37 -26 -31 -28 -49 -55 -39 -94 -89 -56 -31 -39 -14 -61 -58 -56 -43 -38 -37 -57 -56 72 57 58 89 68 82 87 74 65 82 80 77 99 60 58 61 72 79 75 53 52 109 83 89 117 117 137 126 167 154 138 111 116 114 121 117 117 115 118 112 111 108 144 -1 -15 68 27 0 9 19 -23 7 0 24 37 -26 -103 96 -27 -4 55 -7 -9 233 85 131 162 115 105 99 117 71 123 94 115 155 68 63 203 90 109 152 108 80 89 86 146 95 88 105 91 98 95 115 93 91 118 94 167 107 117 113 97 114 89 135 -167 54 162 18 60 -322 55 -48 -92 -297 -60 185 84 194 -141 -133 -188 75 -20 -172 -61 -9 1 1 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 3 -2 9 -89 -6 9 3 26 1 0 0 3 197 -158 52 161 20 60 -318 62 -44 -95 -295 -68 274 90 185 -144 -159 -189 75 -20 -174 46 -117 -29 136 89 111 39 65 69 113 -82 -50 292 -16 110 130 -86 90 43 61 -16 0 -57 22 20 -9 14 26 -44 41 57 -77 4 -79 -31 7 26 -24 40 72 11 34 46 -60 -51 116 98 98 13 109 27 55 -6 -53 372 15 104 103 -62 50 -29 50 -50 139 1,136 -206 1,662 -361 288 -226 72 -64 -448 225 -179 -61 211 -820 -325 107 162 -56 -619 -168 -4 -29 -31 -20 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -16 -2 -8 -8 -11 0 -9 -2 0 -8 -2 -1 29 -1,159 301 -1,599 283 -335 -125 -59 -59 227 -421 125 61 -26 836 13 -178 -439 100 581 13 1,392 -1,040 352 -836 78 -87 -150 -498 -17 166 -361 301 632 -613 99 -963 -387 117 179 185 216 410 -218 29 -133 -83 31 -36 -39 202 -118 -135 42 412 -87 -85 -177 24 -32 -26 18 164 56 -50 5 -54 12 -17 -18 -20 27 41 -48 23 46 21 129 -146 -153 -30 85 40 52 912 -763 325 -671 138 -97 -89 -424 -228 244 -187 234 203 -545 39 -637 -262 161 115 96 -16 14 -9 -7 21 10 -3 -7 -14 -18 -1 9 3 -29 -3 17 -4 4 17 5 31 15 -1,363 -118 -51 -763 205 -248 25 439 -42 61 -60 -177 -572 588 736 976 209 -555 -79 396 -202 -124 -42 60 181 143 4 -165 -10 -263 188 -24 137 -116 -81 152 97 -17 -75 229 -8 -156 -388 -109 -88 -190 -214 -226 142 240 -41 5 -201 -429 -122 64 -212 3 101 -212 -180 -106 -60 -820 3 -8 -781 274 -26 86 202 237 -99 158 103 -319 550 833 904 115 -278 -126 527 12 -30 31 -15 27 2 0 -38 7 25 -33 7 12 -15 54 -36 -28 10 9 -2 -17 1 -13 10 17 -18 13 1 -2 -12 15 29 -15 44 -10 -68 59 48 0 -2 -4 -41 -3 -153 131 0 -235 -67 34 205 -82 175 82 227 58 -78 -33 -82 -7 65 90 -171 -42 202 178 127 142 177 156 183 178 178 154 173 171 177 181 143 155 171 179 186 174 167 N/A 792 904 929 1,070 996 1,060 1,042 1,005 903 1,093 1,026 1,052 826 951 987 1,100 1,000 1,041 1,030 1,039 N/A 523 522 553 663 560 599 599 559 439 624 594 629 570 501 527 654 556 567 605 557 N/A 252 151 174 238 185 227 205 204 166 219 203 226 307 174 157 222 187 200 195 211 N/A 1,039 1,051 1,130 1,319 1,153 1,265 1,170 1,119 1,059 1,275 1,203 1,254 1,014 1,162 1,165 1,283 1,173 1,202 1,181 1,161 N/A 449 424 455 511 477 557 491 475 474 552 504 536 482 445 458 524 448 473 478 436 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 2SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 160 138 102 142 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 132 101 99 Central government (S. 1311) 3,497 3,419 4,299 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 376 526 584 395 401 415 421 417 434 497 526 538 536 541 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,413 9,282 9,454 8,701 8,897 8,928 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,704 21,646 20,876 21,997 22,015 22,024 21,815 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,646 21,793 21,775 21,772 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,680 2,497 2,229 2,558 2,525 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,497 2,454 2,402 2,372 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,302 5,811 5,445 5,638 6,120 5,445 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,811 5,674 5,740 6,504 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,731 35,994 35,692 35,620 35,929 35,495 35,381 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,994 35,993 36,008 36,712 In foreign currency 1,895 1,843 1,536 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,884 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 Securities, total 5,345 5,345 5,659 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,345 5,265 5,266 5,470 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,965 26,767 28,420 28,085 27,929 27,079 27,358 26,819 26,696 27,486 26,767 27,630 27,235 28,129 Overnight 7,200 8,155 8,245 7,732 7,976 7,936 8,041 8,031 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,408 8,193 7,868 8,674 8,377 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,193 8,816 8,483 8,724 With agreed maturity -long-term 9,788 10,337 12,248 11,196 11,401 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,337 10,496 10,550 10,583 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 569 82 59 483 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 73 23 23 Deposits in foreign currency, total 434 463 579 496 705 462 491 462 456 471 463 452 453 449 Overnight 238 285 386 299 513 280 307 277 286 291 285 282 287 284 With agreed maturity -short-term 141 121 133 130 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 115 116 113 With agreed maturity -long-term 45 55 59 59 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 53 49 51 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 10 2 1 8 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.28 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.51 1.81 2.15 1.72 1.83 1.87 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.43 5.53 5.46 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.28 5.76 5.72 6.03 5.61 5.40 5.84 4.98 5.72 6.00 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.40 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.23 0.81 1.39 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 6-month rates 1.44 1.08 1.64 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.37 0.19 0.12 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 6-month rates 0.50 0.27 0.18 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2011 2012 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 102 111 119 182 169 188 204 227 227 207 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,814 4,874 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 584 588 589 588 591 580 584 589 590 585 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 9,338 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,876 20,976 20,896 20,933 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,506 20,398 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,229 2,210 2,234 2,323 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 2,210 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,644 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,229 5,210 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,970 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,440 35,316 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 1,372 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,659 5,837 5,697 6,105 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 5,928 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 29,354 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,632 8,523 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 6,964 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,852 13,751 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 59 92 92 72 80 83 78 66 55 116 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 579 570 564 577 568 559 583 597 591 579 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 386 391 384 384 385 381 397 410 412 397 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 133 117 120 132 124 116 125 125 119 124 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 59 61 59 60 58 61 60 61 59 57 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 2.23 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 5.62 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 6.52 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.75 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.25 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.48 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 PUBLIC FINANCE 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2011 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 1 2 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,408.0 14,794.0 14,982.3 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,356.8 3,600.7 3,826.7 3,538.4 4,016.5 3,618.3 3,711.8 1,205.5 1,118.2 Current revenues 13,639.5 13,771.5 14,037.9 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,784.8 3,364.6 3,638.6 3,319.1 3,715.6 3,410.7 3,485.6 1,147.1 1,045.0 Tax revenues 12,955.4 12,848.4 13,209.2 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.9 3,155.9 3,451.0 3,129.7 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 1,094.8 950.0 Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 2,490.7 2,723.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 635.4 827.7 562.9 697.5 629.5 723.0 215.1 208.1 Social security contributions 5,161.3 5,234.5 5,267.6 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 1,300.6 1,316.9 1,303.8 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 437.7 424.6 Taxes on payroll and workforce 28.5 28.1 29.2 7.2 6.5 8.1 6.7 7.6 6.7 8.2 7.2 6.4 2.3 2.1 Taxes on property 207.0 219.7 215.2 58.9 76.7 60.0 24.0 53.8 84.2 53.1 26.6 64.8 7.4 8.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,660.2 4,780.7 4,856.2 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.9 1,165.5 1,217.4 1,148.4 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 424.5 299.4 Taxes on international trade & transactions 90.5 90.7 100.2 24.7 22.5 24.8 23.7 27.6 23.8 25.1 22.3 21.9 7.8 7.7 Other taxes 2.9 4.0 17.2 1.0 0.7 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 17.6 -19.4 0.5 0.0 -0.2 Non-tax revenues 684.1 923.0 828.7 177.6 276.5 294.9 208.7 187.6 189.5 242.9 238.1 171.6 52.3 95.0 Capital revenues 106.5 175.7 65.3 17.9 26.1 121.9 7.6 21.6 14.4 21.7 10.5 10.8 2.0 2.7 Grants 11.1 12.6 10.4 2.2 2.5 5.0 2.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 Transferred revenues 54.3 109.5 53.8 2.3 3.8 102.9 2.3 0.4 50.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.0 Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 724.7 814.9 87.8 155.1 342.2 223.9 163.2 153.3 274.6 195.6 213.1 54.1 70.0 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,368.2 16,692.7 16,546.3 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,586.9 4,191.6 4,159.0 3,955.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.6 1,418.9 1,408.8 Current expenditures 6,800.8 6,960.4 6,926.7 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,771.0 1,898.6 1,742.3 1,645.5 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.8 638.7 637.0 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,911.9 3,912.4 3,882.7 1,012.5 963.6 980.0 967.0 1,010.3 955.0 950.4 960.7 976.1 326.1 316.0 Expenditures on goods and services 2,510.3 2,512.4 2,443.4 624.9 587.7 743.1 585.3 615.7 603.4 638.9 587.3 596.9 202.1 184.0 Interest payments 336.1 488.2 526.7 110.0 76.4 29.2 311.3 108.1 78.0 29.3 431.8 81.5 88.6 134.5 Reserves 42.5 47.4 73.9 9.9 9.2 18.8 35.0 8.2 9.1 21.6 15.3 14.3 22.0 2.5 Current transfers 7,339.4 7,628.5 7,818.9 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,973.6 1,942.5 2,076.4 1,855.7 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.8 673.8 628.3 Subsidies 597.9 581.9 496.3 122.8 103.7 194.7 171.2 127.6 69.1 128.2 177.1 107.8 97.5 46.4 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,024.5 6,277.7 6,533.5 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,562.9 1,606.6 1,745.6 1,583.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.9 521.6 532.8 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 678.1 728.8 737.2 188.6 183.3 206.3 158.8 186.2 189.0 203.2 158.0 169.6 51.2 48.7 Current transfers abroad 38.9 40.1 52.0 12.6 9.1 9.6 5.9 17.0 14.5 14.6 13.0 12.5 3.6 0.4 Capital expenditures 1,294.1 1,310.6 1,023.5 212.5 321.1 584.3 168.8 196.5 266.5 391.6 165.3 179.2 58.8 50.7 Capital transfers 494.6 396.4 372.1 90.1 82.0 176.9 42.4 73.3 97.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 12.5 11.5 Payments to the EU budget 439.3 396.8 405.1 67.8 97.3 81.1 139.3 70.6 91.0 104.4 161.8 86.5 35.1 81.3 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,960.2 -1,898.7 -1,564.1 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * In the "corrected outturn" column, certain categories of revenues that remained on unallocated fund accounts were estimated based on previous months' dynamics. Unallocated funds are a consequence of the introduction of a new DURS information system and the modification of the fiscal revenue payment system on 1 October 2011. 2011 2012 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10* 1 11* 1 12* 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 1,277.0 1,256.2 1,269.2 1,301.3 1,097.3 1,220.5 1,220.6 1,290.5 1,361.2 1,364.8 1,181.7 1,094.3 1,342.3 1,283.1 1,159.5 1,269.3 1,188.4 1,234.8 1,172.5 1,185.3 1,208.5 1,244.8 1,037.4 1,181.0 1,100.8 1,235.8 1,265.0 1,214.8 1,152.0 1,056.3 1,202.4 1,230.6 1,101.2 1,153.7 1,119.9 1,189.8 1,111.1 1,131.8 1,141.3 1,177.8 976.9 1,111.6 1,041.2 1,170.4 1,185.5 1,116.8 1,106.6 952.1 1,114.0 1,174.5 1,049.3 1,090.3 1,059.0 1,107.5 212.1 294.5 237.9 295.4 106.0 221.0 235.8 223.8 227.5 246.2 214.7 219.2 195.6 248.3 194.8 279.9 91.6 210.5 438.4 438.3 439.6 439.0 436.3 431.5 436.1 416.5 444.0 485.8 443.5 438.0 461.0 441.3 449.0 442.5 432.2 446.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 8.3 7.1 25.7 21.0 25.4 30.8 28.0 4.7 33.9 14.5 8.2 9.7 8.7 10.5 27.4 26.9 26.3 26.4 441.6 380.3 426.2 410.9 397.3 420.1 331.1 456.6 495.4 373.0 443.6 282.4 438.0 460.7 371.2 332.7 496.8 414.2 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.0 9.2 6.4 8.2 7.3 8.6 9.2 6.7 7.3 8.3 8.8 6.6 6.5 5.9 5.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 58.9 -26.3 -15.0 -12.1 -6.6 -0.7 2.7 -1.9 -0.3 4.2 3.0 61.4 53.5 67.2 66.9 60.5 69.4 59.6 65.5 79.5 98.0 45.4 104.3 88.4 56.2 52.0 63.5 60.8 82.3 2.8 10.9 3.4 7.3 5.1 4.2 5.1 3.6 6.1 12.0 2.2 4.2 4.1 2.4 3.5 4.8 4.7 2.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 50.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.8 58.9 56.0 48.2 54.3 35.1 63.9 50.3 87.6 136.6 27.2 33.5 134.9 49.4 53.8 109.9 63.4 41.3 1,363.8 1,359.4 1,476.9 1,322.8 1,308.6 1,321.4 1,325.8 1,328.8 1,368.3 1,542.9 1,491.0 1,446.9 1,388.7 1,366.7 1,249.3 1,241.6 1,346.9 1,241.7 622.9 629.0 585.2 528.1 535.5 540.4 569.6 544.4 530.7 565.2 679.4 648.3 667.4 628.2 515.5 525.2 529.9 507.3 324.9 312.2 377.7 320.3 321.5 320.6 312.8 322.2 320.0 308.2 332.1 317.3 311.3 330.7 316.3 329.1 324.2 306.2 199.2 213.0 203.2 199.5 207.4 215.5 180.5 196.4 204.5 238.0 205.6 190.9 190.7 215.1 191.4 190.3 198.0 194.3 88.2 101.3 1.5 5.3 3.9 2.3 71.7 21.9 1.9 5.6 136.4 134.8 160.6 77.3 2.6 1.6 5.1 2.2 10.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 4.5 3.9 4.3 13.4 5.4 5.3 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.1 2.5 4.7 640.3 635.9 781.7 658.8 620.8 619.8 615.0 607.7 642.7 694.0 707.5 632.8 617.1 638.5 627.2 613.2 697.3 607.6 27.4 40.9 36.8 49.9 22.7 22.9 23.6 17.0 39.3 71.9 117.0 40.5 19.6 47.2 31.8 28.8 14.7 20.6 552.2 534.7 673.0 537.8 530.5 529.9 522.6 526.4 540.0 531.9 535.4 534.5 539.3 530.3 531.1 527.5 611.9 520.0 58.8 54.9 61.9 69.4 61.5 65.9 61.6 63.0 62.3 77.8 49.0 53.4 55.6 56.3 59.0 54.2 67.3 62.4 1.9 5.4 9.9 1.7 6.2 1.1 7.2 1.2 1.1 12.4 6.1 4.3 2.6 4.6 5.2 2.7 3.3 4.6 59.4 54.2 62.0 80.3 78.5 105.5 82.5 94.6 111.5 185.6 56.7 55.0 53.6 50.9 63.9 64.3 76.8 72.4 18.4 20.4 21.1 31.8 41.4 29.1 26.5 49.3 48.1 61.9 12.3 18.6 16.1 14.3 10.2 19.8 23.5 24.5 22.9 19.9 26.9 23.8 32.3 26.5 32.1 32.8 35.3 36.2 35.1 92.2 34.6 34.9 32.5 19.1 19.5 29.9 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, AUKN - The Capital Assets Management Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, BS - Bank of Slovenia, DB - Doing Business, EBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFSF - European Financial Stability Facility, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ERM II - European Exchange Rate Mechanism, ESA - European System of Accounts, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESM - European Stability Mechanism, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HWWI - Das Hamburgische WeltWirtschaftsInstitut gemeinnützige GmbH, ICT - Information and Communication Technology, ifo - Information und Forschung Institut, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMD - International Institute for Management Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, KAD - Kapitalska družba d.d., LFS - Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - No-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SKIS - Standard Classification of Institutional Sectors, SMP -Securities Market Programme, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, TARGET2 - Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System 2, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, WEF - World Economic Forum, ZSPJS - Public Sector Salary System Act, ZUJF - The Public Finance Balance Act, ZUPJS - Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleumproducts, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufactureofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofothertransport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror October 2012, No. 10. Vol. XVIII