.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) > "(5 VID <5 CD CD fN CU C Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 6 / Vol. XVI / 2010 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Jure Brložnik, MA, Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Saša Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, Ana Tršelič Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Maja Kozar (Public finance); Matevž Hribernik (The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook - survey of the main global economies). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Ema Bertina Kopitar Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................18 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................22 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................24 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................26 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................31 The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook - survey of the main global economies..........................................33 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................35 Boxes Box 1: Continuation of the extraordinary ECB measures...........................................................................................8 Box 2: Market shares........................................................................................................................................................10 Box 3: Minimum wage according to the new Act......................................................................................................16 Box 4: Excise policy..........................................................................................................................................................19 Box 5: Supplementary state budget for 2010.............................................................................................................28 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD In the spotlight GDP in the euro area rose for the third time in a row during in the first quarter of 2010 and short-term indicators show accelerated GDP growth in the second quarter. Uncertainty regarding the future developments is aggravated by fiscal problems in certain Member States. In the first quarter, greatest contributions to GDP growth in the euro area came from exports, reflecting the rebound of international trade, and changes in inventories. In light of difficulties in financial markets, which have significantly influenced the movement of sentiment indicators and changes in forecasts for economic growth, the ECB adjusted the exit strategy to the current situation. These ECB's actions should, however, be understood as short-term and countries should keep their austerity measures in place. Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia declined in April. After growing in previous months, the seasonally adjusted value of goods exports and production volume in manufacturing declined in April. The value of construction put in place, nominal turnover in wholesale trade and the values of real total turnover in retail trade and in accommodation and food service activities also dropped again. Growth rates are higher y-o-y and their drops smaller than last year, mainly due to the base effect, and in exports of goods and production volume in manufacturing, also due to slight growth in previous months. The deterioration of cost competitiveness of Slovenia's economy slowed in the first quarter of this year, but Slovenia is still among the EU countries with the worst cost competitiveness movements. The deterioration of cost competitiveness is slowing as a result of higher labour productivity, which declined previously for one year. On the other hand, due to the increase in the compensation of employees, real unit labour costs rose y-o-y, though less than in the last quarter of2009, while in the euro average as a whole and in the EU, they have already declined. After three consecutive quarters of growth, export competitiveness also deteriorated again in the first quarter of the year, as Slovenia's market share in its main trading partners declined y-o-y, particularly due to the drop in market shares outside the EU. Amid relatively favourable seasonal movements in the first four months of 2010, the number of persons in formal employment and the number of registered unemployed persons remained at the level recorded at the end of last year. In April, employment continued to decline in manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport, and accommodation and food service activities, but increased further in professional, scientific and technical activities. Among public services, employment rose in public administration and health and social work. The number of registered unemployed persons declined to 98,401 in May, but is increasing according to seasonally adjusted data (0.4% in April). The average gross wage per employee dropped in April and its y-o-y growth eased somewhat. The number of minimum-wage earners increased significantly after the minimum wage was raised in March. The average gross wage dropped (by 1.1% in nominal terms) due to the expected decline in private sector wages as a result of a lower number of working days in April and the dynamics of payments related to business results and overtime work in 2009. The average wage in the public sector increased, as expected, due to regular promotions of public servants. After the minimum wage was raised in March, the number of its recipients climbed to 43,323. The share of minimumwage earners in total employed persons rose from last year's 3% to 7% in March this year. More than 60% of all minimum-wage earners were paid minimum wages in the highest minimum-wage category, which shows that not many enterprises availed themselves of the possibility of a gradual transition to the new minimum wage. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in June, while y-o-y inflation dropped to 1.9%. June's price growth was characterised by seasonal price fluctuations and higher prices of some types of energy. In June, y-o-y inflation also dropped in the euro area as a whole, according to the first data, to 1.4%. In the first five months of 2010, lending activity of domestic banks remained at a similar level as in the same period of last year and banks recorded net lending in the amount of EUR 635.5 m. The bulk of lending activity in May came from net household borrowing, which was at the same level as in the previous month and exclusively in the form of housing loans. Corporate and NFI borrowing from domestic banks declined in May and remained low (EUR 38.3 m). Banks net repaid foreign loans again in April, mainly long-term loans, in the amount of EUR 271.7 m, which is the highest figure this year. According to the consolidated balance of the MF, the general government deficit totalled EUR 725 m in the first three months of 2010. Due to a wider-than-planned gap between revenue and expenditure, the government proposed a supplementary budget. According to the consolidated balance, revenue amounted to EUR 3.3 bn in the first three months (0.8% y-o-y growth) and expenditure to EUR 4.0 bn (4.1% y-o-y growth). To match the budget to lower-than-expected revenue, the government proposed a supplementary budget, according to which the deficit should remain approximately the same or slightly lower (EUR 58 m) than envisaged in the budget adopted in December (EUR 1,768 bn or 5.1% of GDP). Despite revenue and expenditure cuts relative to what was planned in December, revenue will increase by 7.6% and expenditure by 6.6% in nominal terms relative to the realisation in 2009. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment GDP in the euro area rose for the third time in a row during the first quarter of 2010 and short-term indicators show accelerated GDP growth in the second quarter. In the first quarter of 2010, GDP in the euro area was 0.6% higher y-o-y. The largest contribution to y-o-y GDP growth (2.2 p.p.) came from exports, which turned positive again, after a relatively long period, with most of the euro area countries managing to seize opportunities arising from the pick-up in global trade flows. The volume of global trade increased by 3.5% in March and was up 20.1% y-o-y, approaching the highest levels to date, recorded in April 2008. Along with higher foreign demand, euro area exports have also benefited from a gain in price competitiveness related to the depreciation of the euro. In the first quarter, economic growth was also positively impacted by changes in inventories (0.9 p.p.) and government consumption (0.4 p.p.), while private consumption stagnated. Private consumption is negatively affected by tightened conditions on the labour market, even if labour market conditions did not deteriorate noticeably in the first five months of this year, with unemployment in the euro area increasing by 0.12 p.p. to 10.0% between December and May. The key driver of the economic recovery in the euro area in terms of value added by activity is industrial production, largely in manufacturing. In the first quarter, industrial production in the euro area increased y-o-y for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, by 3.5% (working-day adjusted), and continued to grow in April. Construction activity declined again in the first quarter, dropping by 6.0% y-o-y (working-day adjusted), and diminished further in April. Figure 1: Expenditure structure of GDP growth in the euro area Household expenditure Government consumption ■ Gross fixed capital formation I Exports -GDP real growth (right axis) I Changes in inventories Imports 8 6 4 1= .ä^' 2 a Source: Eurostat. for several months, main confidence indicators in the euro area and its main Member States dropped somewhat or ceased to rise in May and June, mainly due to uncertainty regarding the sustainability of public finances in certain euro area countries. According to the June 2010 ECB projections, annual GDP growth in the euro area will range between 0.7% and 1.3% in 2010 and between 0.2% and 2.2% in 2010. Compared with the March 2010 projections, the range for GDP growth this year has been revised slightly upwards, while the range has been revised somewhat downwards for 2011, reflecting poor domestic demand prospects due to the need for public finance consolidation and due to lower fiscal incentives. Like other international institutions, the ECB also predicts weak economic growth in the euro area in 2010 and 2011. Figure 2: World trade and industrial production indices Uncertainty regarding public finances in euro area countries is reflected in the movement of sentiment indicators and revisions of forecasts for economic growth. After improving Source: CPB. Looking at Slovenia's main trading partners outside the EU, Croatia has not recorded any visible improvement in the economic situation yet, while GDP in the US and Russia increased y-o-y in the first quarter of 2010. Last year, the countries of the former Yugoslavia felt the impact of the crisis largely through the drop in trade flows and deteriorated conditions in international financial markets. GDP in Croatia contracted 2.5% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2010 (the volume of industrial production increased 0.3% y-o-y). The EC predicts zero GDP growth in Croatia for 2010, and 2.7% GDP growth for 2011. For other countries in the region, data on GDP growth in the first quarter are not yet available, but short-term indicators suggest a gradual improvement of economic conditions. In Serbia the volume of industrial production increased by 3% and in Bosnia and Herzegovina by 2% in the first three months of 2010. International institutions forecast positive GDP growth in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina for this year, around 1.0%, and over 3% in 2011. Russia's GDP rose by 2.9% y-o-y in the first quarter, mainly due to the increase in industrial production (5.8%, y-o-y) and higher prices of oil and non-oil commodities. In the first 4 Box 1: Continuation of the extraordinary ECB measures Figure 3: Volume of loans by entities from euro area countries from the ECB 26 - Percentage of euro area GDP - In view of the tightened conditions in financial markets in the euro area, the ECB revised the method and the dynamics of phasing-out the extraordinary measures adopted in response to the crisis. At the beginning of the crisis, the ECB, besides reducing its key interest rate from 4.25% in October 2008 to 1.0% in May 2009 (the same figure as in June 2010), adopted extraordinary measures to provide liquidity in the euro area and thus significantly contributed to the stabilisation of the euro area financial system. The ECB thus increased the supply of liquidity to banks in its refinancing operations from EUR 451 bn at the end of August 2008 to EUR 870 bn at the end of June 2010.1 At the same time, it increased the purchase of securities from euro area residents, from close to EUR 110 bn to nearly EUR 415 bn. During the crisis, banks also avail themselves of overnight deposits2 (EUR 90 bn at the end of August 2009, compared with close to EUR 285 bn at the end of June 2010). The ECB announced last December that it would start to phase out extraordinary measures in 2010, but with renewed tension in financial markets, it changed the timeline of the withdrawal and adopted additional measures such as buying government bonds and carrying out additional liquidity operations. By the end of June 2010, the ECB thus purchased government bonds worth 55 bn and completed the covered bond purchase programme under which it purchased EUR 60 bn worth of private covered bonds. The first 12-month unlimited refinancing operation, which was issued in June 2009 and matured at the end of June this year, provided European banks with EUR 442 bn worth of liquidity at a 1% interest rate. To address severe tensions in the European financial system and for fear that they may tighten after this operation expires, the ECB decided to conduct further unlimited refinancing operations at a 1% interest rate, but with a shorter, 3-month maturity. In the first operation, banks applied for EUR 131.9 bn at the end of June, less than expected, which leads analysts to conclude that the situation in the European financial system is less worrying than what was previously estimated or that problems are concentrated in a relatively small group of countries and financial institutions.3 This is also indicated by analyses of the national distribution of extraordinary ECB liquidity, according to which since the beginning of the crisis more than two thirds of the ECB liquidity support have been allocated to PIGS4. With its latest measures the ECB thus addressed the current problems in the European financial system, while changing the exit strategy and extending extraordinary measures. However, these ECB's actions should be understood as short-term and countries should keep their austerity measures in place. Greece 20 14 France Germany Source: Royal Bank of Scotland; calculations by IMAD. 1 The maturity of these operations increased; the range of eligible counterparties is wider and there are no restrictions regarding the amount of assets. 2 Deposit facility. 3 A total of 1,121 banks used the first 12-month refinancing facility, but only 171 banks participated in the 3-month refinancing operation at the end of June. It has to be noted that the average amount of liquidity per bank nearly doubled (from EUR 394 m to EUR 771 m per bank, on average), suggesting that certain banks still experience significant difficulties in access to liquidity markets. 4 Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. quarter of 2010, GDP in the US was 2.4% higher y-o-y. The increase primarily reflected positive contributions from private consumption expenditures, inventory investment and fixed investment. Interbank interest rates were raised again in June, while the key interest rates of the main central banks were left unchanged. The value of the 3-month EURIBOR has risen by 8 basis points since April this year, totalling 0.728%, on average, in June. The value of the 3-month USD LIBOR is still very low, but increased in June for the fourth month in a row, amounting to 0.537% in the month as a whole. Key interest rates of the main central banks remain unchanged at record lows (ECB: 1.0%, Fed: 0.0%, BoE: 0.5%). The euro continued to lose value against other main currencies in June. It dropped to what has been the lowest average monthly value against the US dollar since March 2006 (against the Japanese yen since November 2001 and against the Swiss franc since the introduction of the euro in 1999). The average exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar totalled USD 1.2209 to EUR 1, down 2.9% from May and 16.5% from December last year. In June, the euro also depreciated against the Japanese yen (by 4.2%, to JPY110.99 to EUR 1), the British pound sterling (by 3.4%, to GDP 0.8277 to EUR 1) and the Swiss franc (by 2.9%, to CHF 1.3767 to EUR 1). June's movement of oil prices was again fairly volatile and the average oil price dropped in June relative to May. In June, the average price of Brent crude oil declined by 1.6% to USD 74.75 a barrel. Expressed in EUR, it rose by 0.9% to EUR 62.18 a barrel. The average oil price increased by 9.0% y-o-y in USD and by 25.6% y-o-y in EUR (expressed in EUR, oil prices increased by as much as 20.4% since December), which means that most of the increase in oil prices in EUR is attributable to the depreciation of the euro in recent months. Figure 4: Movements of the price of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate Figure 5: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Price in USD (left axis) -Price in EUR (left axis) - Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 08 Source: ECB, EIA, calculations by IMAD. Economic activity in Slovenia The value of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia declined in April, according to seasonally adjusted data. After growing in previous months, the seasonally adjusted value of goods exports and production volume in manufacturing declined in April. The value of construction put in place and nominal turnover in wholesale trade, where activity is to a great extent related to construction, also declined in April, after the increase in March. The values of real total turnover in retail trade and real turnover in accommodation and food service activities also dropped. Exports of goods and production in manufacturing were more than one tenth higher, y-o-y, due to the base effect and growth in previous months; total turnover in retail trade also increased slightly, while the other three indicators dropped y-o-y, particularly the value of construction put in place. Exports of goods dropped slightly in April, after three months of growth, while they were up 11.9% y-o-y due to the base effect. Goods exports contracted by 1.7% in April, seasonally adjusted, being up 8.5% y-o-y in the first four months of 2010. Exports to EU countries increased y-o-y in the first quarter of 2010, reflecting 110 105 100 F 95 - Merchandise exports (nom.) - Industrial production in manufact. ■Value of construction put in place - Turnover in trade - Turnover in hotels and restaurants - Turnover in wholesale ig rj 90 -- (U "D CT i^s^ 85 aj 80 75 70 A Q S Q Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. the economic recovery in Slovenia's main trading partners. Exports to Slovenia's main trading partners (EU-4)1 were thus higher y-o-y for the first time since the beginning of the crisis (10.8%), while exports to non-EU countries dropped further, although the decline eased (-1.4%). Exports to the former Yugoslav countries dropped for the fifth quarter in a row, mainly owing to lower exports to Croatia and Serbia, with exports to the Russian Federation and the US already increasing y-o-y. Looking at exports by activity, exports of transport vehicles increased y-o-y again in the first quarter; higher exports were also recorded in the manufacture of textile products, but these products account for a relatively Figure 6: Export growth structure according to the SITC ■ Road vehicles ■ Iron and steel; non-ferrous metals and metal products ■ General industrial machinery; electrical machinery and equipment All other products 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 D -15 O -25 E3 ^ a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 1 Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU are Germany, Italy, Austria and France. In the first quarter of 2010, exports to these countries accounted for half of total Slovenian exports of goods. 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0 small share in the structure of exports. After declining in the previous three quarters, exports of the manufacture of electrical equipment, metals, and pharmaceutical raw materials and preparations also increased y-o-y. In April, imports of goods maintained their March level, being 12.2% higher y-o-y due to the base effect. With significant monthly fluctuations, imports of goods Box 2: Market shares After three quarters of growth, Slovenia's market share dropped in Slovenia's main trading partners in the first quarter of 2010, largely due to the decline in market shares outside the EU. After growing for seven years, Slovenia's aggregate market share had dropped for five consecutive quarters since early 2008 until the second quarter of 2009, when it again started to rise. In the first quarter of 2010, this growth came to a halt, largely under the influence of a decline in market shares outside the EU, with Slovenia's market share in Croatia falling notably, after last year's increase, and with further declines of market shares in Russia and the US. In the EU, Slovenia increased its market shares in France, Italy and Austria, but on the most important, German market, its market share dropped once again. Among other EU markets which have a relatively lower weight in Slovenian exports, Slovenia's market shares declined the most in Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. In the first quarter, Slovenia was, despite slower growth, in the middle of EU countries in terms of market share growth in the internal market. However, early this year most EU countries strengthened their exports to non-EU markets (rather than exports to the internal market), where Slovenia had significantly worse results, as its y-o-y exports to these markets continued to decline. remained similar to those in the previous month (0.2%); in the first four months of 2010, it was 7.3% higher than in the same period last year. The y-o-y decline in imports of investment goods continued in the first quarter, while imports of intermediate products and consumer goods increased y-o-y. Imports of machinery and equipment recorded a further deep decline (-24.7%), suggesting that domestic investment activity in the private business sector remains low. Within imports of intermediate goods, imports of goods for production and imports of fuels and lubricants picked up most notably y-o-y, with the increase in the volume of production in manufacturing and higher energy prices on global markets. Growth in consumer goods imports was largely underpinned by high imports of personal cars and gasoline in March. Imports of nondurable goods were also stronger. Figure 8: International trade indices - Merchandise exports -------Exports of services - Merchandise imports - Imports of services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 7: Slovenia's market shares in the 15 main trading partners a a a cS Source: SORS, Eurostat, WIIW, U. S. Census Bureau; calculations by IMAD. Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2009 IV 10/ III 10 IV 10/ IV 09 I-IV 10/ I-IV 09 Exports1 -18.2 -9.2 9.3 6.3 -goods -19.2 -11.5 11.9 8.3 -services -14.3 2.5 -0.7 -1.6 Imports1 -23.0 -7.4 10.1 6.2 -goods -25.9 -8.7 11.4 7.4 -services -3.9 1.1 3.1 -0.5 Industrial production -16.9 -2.42 9.83 2.03 -manufacturing -18.1 -2.62 11.13 2.93 Construction -value of construction put in place -21.0 -2.12 -14.93 -17.83 Distributive trade - total turnover in retail trade -12.8 -1.52 4.03 -0.43 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants -11.8 -1.82 -3.03 -2.03 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. The value of trade in services in April declined relative to the previous April, but trade in services related to trade in goods is gradually picking up. April again saw lower exports of services y-o-y (-0.7%), largely due to the decline in exports of construction services. The greatest positive contribution to services exports came from road transport and merchanting services. The y-o-y decline in imports of services (-2.2%) was related to the decline in imports of maritime transport services, along with lower imports of licences, patents and copyrights. The decline in y-o-y imports of services was offset by higher imports of air transport and communication and construction services. In the first four months of 2010, exports of services declined by 1.6% and imports by 0.5% y-o-y. The volume of production in manufacturing contracted in April, but was higher y-o-y due to the low-base effect. April's production was down 2.6% from the previous month (seasonally adjusted), exceeding by 11.1% the level in the same month of last year (working-day adjusted). With stronger y-o-y growth (reflecting a slight pick-up in production volume in 2010, as well as low production activity in the first months of last year), in the first four months of 2010, production volume was up 2.9% from the same period last year (working-day adjusted). The y-o-y increase in production activity in April was also attributable to industries that are more oriented to exports (with the exception of the manufacture of other machinery and equipment, ICT and electrical appliances, and other manufacturing). Production volume in industries that are mainly and predominantly export-oriented increased by an average of 15.6% compared with what was recorded in the previous April. Growth was strongest in technologically more intensive production of transport vehicles and electrical appliances, and in the low-technology rubber industry. All three activities, along with the metal industry, made the largest contributions to the y-o-y increase in production volume in manufacturing. Figure 9: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing by export orientation 20 15 April 2010 -Q1 2010 In the first four months as a whole, production volume in manufacturing industries in Slovenia lagged more behind the 2008 average than in the EU-27. The gap was widest in some less technologically intensive industries.2 In the EU-27, production activity dropped by 13.2% relative to 2008 in the first four months. In Slovenia, where the rate of recovery slowed at the quarterly level, production activity declined by 18.6%. Greater lags behind the EU-27 average were only recorded in the Baltic states, Bulgaria, Denmark and Finland. In Slovenia, production volume increased relative to 2008 only in the manufacture of electrical appliances and in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, where production activity had also been higher y-o-y in the last quarter of last year, when these activities had already exceeded the 2008 levels. The lag behind the 2008 production, but also behind the EU-27, is largest in certain less technologically intensive activities, such as other manufacturing, more labour-intensive textile and furniture industries and in the manufacture of non-metal mineral products, which is highly dependent on domestic demand, particularly that by the construction sector. The technologically more intensive and more export-oriented manufacture of ICT appliances and the manufacture of other transport equipment also have lower production volumes compared with the EU-27 average, but given their low shares, they have a lesser impact on the total production volume in Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing in the first four months of 2010, EU-27 and Slovenia Source: Eurostat, calculafions by IMAD. Note: Due to the confidenfial character of data for Slovenia, the pharmaceuficalindustry is not included, while the manufacture of coke and petroleum products is not covered due to its small share. Highly Mainly Domestic-market- export-oriented export-oriented oriented 2 Due to the confidential character of data for Slovenia, the pharmaceutical industry is not included in the comparison between the EU-27 and Slovenia. The manufacture of coke and petroleum products is not covered, as it accounts for a negligible share in Slovenian manufacturing. 25 10 5 manufacturing (accounting for 3% of manufacturing industries). Construction activity declined in April and remained significantly lower than in the same month of last year. According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place was down 2.2% in April relative to March and down 14.9% relative to the previous April. In 2009, construction activity mainly declined, while this year, it hovers around the level recorded at the end of last year. Looking at construction segments, activity in the segment of buildings strengthened relative to the end of last year, particularly non-residential construction (the first construction segment to have seen activity drop during the crisis), while activity in civil engineering declined. Figure 11: Value of construction put in place Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The value of new contracts declined in April, falling to the average level of2009. After strengthening in January and February (when, seasonally adjusted, the value of new contracts reached the highest level since the onset of the crisis), the value of new contracts dropped in March and April, recording the average value of 2009. The value of new contracts in the construction of buildings exceeded the 2009 average by 28%. In civil engineering, it was 29% lower. The stock of contracts in the construction sector was higher y-o-y in February, for the first time since the beginning of the crisis; it also increased y-o-y in March and April. Electricity production, and particularly consumption, increased y-o-y in May. Electricity production rose by 1.4% y-o-y, of which in the nuclear power plant by 15.1% and in thermal power plants by 7.1%, while electricity production in hydroelectric power plants dropped by 13.7%. Electricity consumption was 13.9% higher y-o-y in May, similar to April. A total of 43% of this relatively high increase was due to consumption by direct consumers (metal industry), 31% to consumption from the distribution network, and 25% from the pumped-storage power plant Avče, which is in full operation this year (1% transmission loss). Not including the Croatian half of nuclear power plant production, Slovenia's net electricity exports accounted for 2.6% of consumption. Despite a much lower electricity surplus than in the previous May, the production-consumption balance was more favourable than in the last nine months, when Slovenia mainly recorded a small electricity deficit. Figure 12: Electricity production and consumption Output in thermal power plants ^^ Output in nuclear power plant (50%) Output in hydroelectric power plants -Electricity consumption 1200 1100 1000 900 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: ELES; calculations by IMAD. After increasing in March, total real turnover in retail trade and in the sale of motor vehicles3 dropped in April (seasonally adjusted), while it increased y-o-y due to the base effect. Turnover in retail trade (seasonally adjusted) has fluctuated significantly from month to month since the beginning of the year; in April it was approximately at the same level as at the beginning of the year, or somewhat higher (by 4.7%) than in May 2009, when it had been lowest since the beginning of the crisis. In April, total turnover in retail trade and in the sale of motor vehicles was higher y-o-y for the second successive month, but its growth eased somewhat (by 0.9 p.p. to 3.2%). Growth in total turnover was again a result of higher turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles due to increased sales of passenger cars (the number of new passenger car registrations increased by 10.4% y-o-y, of which registrations by natural persons by 1.1%).4 The y-o-y decline in turnover in retail trade, in contrast, increased again in April.5 This was largely a result of lower y-o-y turnover in the sale of food products, 3 In total retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). 4 The number of total first car registrations increased by 12.8% and 6.9% y-o-y, respectively, in May and June; within that, registrations by natural persons dropped by 0.6% and 8.8%, respectively. 5 In May, turnover in retail trade was equal to that in the previous May, according to provisional data, which are, however, not available for all sectors of retail trade and motor vehicle sales; besides, there have been significant differences between provisional and final data in recent months. beverages and tobacco products,6 while the decline in turnover in the sale of non-food products7 diminished; due to the base effect, for the first time since January 2009, turnover growth was recorded in specialised stores selling automotive fuels. In the first four months of 2010, total turnover dropped 0.4% y-o-y, of which in retail trade by 4.0%, while turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles increased by 8.1%. Figure 13: Turnover in retail trade and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles -Total retail trade -Motor vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts ---------Automotive fuel -----Food, beverages, tobacco —■— Non-food Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade shrank in April, after the significant increase in March (seasonally adjusted), which was reflected in a larger y-o-y decline. The April decline in nominal turnover in wholesale trade (1.5%, seasonally adjusted) is also related to the decline in the value of construction put in place, by our estimate. The y-o-y decline in nominal turnover in wholesale trade increased further in April, despite the significant reduction in 2009; in the first four months of 2010, turnover dropped by 7.1% compared with the same period last year. Real turnover in accommodation and food service activities declined in April for the third month in a row (seasonally adjusted); the y-o-y decline was, consequently, also larger. This year's y-o-y decline in turnover in accommodation and food service activities8 was most likely linked to the non-tourist part of this sector (household spending on food and beverages) and a different structure of tourists, as in the first four months of the year, the total number of overnight stays increased by 3.0% (of which domestic tourist overnight stays by 4.9% and overnight stays by foreign tourists by 1.0%). 6 After already recording turnover growth in March. 7 Within the group of non-food products, an increase in turnover was, in addition to specialised stores selling pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products, also recorded in specialised stores selling computer and telecommunication equipment. 8 Real turnover in accommodation and food service activities dropped by 3.0% y-o-y in April, and by 2.0% in the first four months as a whole. Figure 14: Tourist overnight stays and turnover in hotels and restaurants Turnover in hotels and restaurants -Overnight stays -total -----Overnight stays -domestic 15 -Overnight stays -foreign 12 9 6 ■Jl 3 ^o 0 ^-3 -6 -9 ?S 8B ii ^^ Ü Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Households remain cautious when spending. The net wage bill dropped by 1.2% y-o-y in real terms in May. Turnover in retail trade remained unchanged y-o-y in May, despite the nearly 10% y-o-y drop in the previous May. In the first quarter of the year, the number of car registrations increased y-o-y, while in April and May, the number of personal cars registered by natural persons was approximately the same as in the same period last year. The consumer confidence indicator increased somewhat in recent months, which we estimate is largely due to the fact that, with the recession continuing for quite some time, consumers are less uncertain about the current situation than in previous months or last year, after the crisis had just begun. They nevertheless do not yet plan any major purchases, which is also reflected in a relatively sharp decline in personal car Figure 15: Household consumption indicators ^^m Turnover in retail trade (left axis) ^^m No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Net wage bill (left axis) -----Consumer confdence indicator, original value (right axis) 40 30 20 cu 10 0 [J -10]^ -20 -30 -40 JS Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. registrations by natural persons. Data on consumer loans show that households net repaid consumer loans in the first five months of this year, which means that they were still cautious when buying on credit. The seasonally adjusted value of the sentiment indicator increased slightly in June, most notably in retail trade. In June, this indicator only dropped in construction, where it approached the lowest level to date (recorded in April this year). Indicators in other activities have increased since March or April, but remain much lower than before the crisis. Figure 16: Business trends - Economic sentiment - Retail trade - Service act. Source: SORS. agriculture. The number of vacancies declined somewhat in May and was again lower y-o-y (by 1.2%). The number of persons hired also fell, down 11.6% from a year before. The number of valid work permits for foreigners declined further in May (by 0.9%), once again most notably in construction. Figure 17: Different categories of persons in formal employment - Persons in paid employment by legal persons ■ Persons in paid employment by natural persons ■ Self-employed persons -farmers (right axis) - Other self-employed persons Labour market Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The number of registered unemployed dropped somewhat in May, though it continued to increase (0.4%), according to seasonally adjusted data, albeit less than in the previous two months. After declining in March and increasing in April, the number of registered unemployed persons dropped slightly in May (to 98,401), being 16.4% (13,992) higher than a year ago. The number of newly registered people was down 4.7% from April and 20.3% from the previous May. A total of 5,499 persons registered due to job loss, In April, the number of persons in formal employment, which had been declining in 2009, remained approximately at the level recorded at the end of the year. It rose by 2,348 persons compared with March (seasonally adjusted by 0.0%) and the y-o-y rate of decline diminished to 2.8%. The number of farmers9 increased, in particular, by 2,718 or 10.3%, while the numbers of persons employed by legal entities, which represent the bulk of the active population, and of other self-employed persons dropped slightly, according to seasonally adjusted data. Employment continues to drop in manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport and accommodation and food service activities, while it grows further in professional, scientific and technical activities. Among public services, in April employment rose particularly in public administration, and health and social work. The number of employed persons also rose in Figure 18: Registered unemployed persons and registered unemployment rate Registered unemployed (in '000, left axis) - Y-o-y growth (in %, left axis) ----Seasonally adjusted monthly growth (in %, right axis) -Unemployment rate (in %, right axis) 9 A statistical increase of an estimate based on data from the labour force survey for the last quarter. 12 9 6 3 Table 2: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % 2009 IV 09 III 10 IV 10 2009/ 2008 IV 10/ III 10 IV 10/ IV 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 37.9 38.0 31.9 34.6 -4.5 8.6 -8.9 B Mining and quarrying 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.0 -7.5 0.2 -10.1 C Manufacturing 199.8 203.6 190.0 189.7 -10.1 -0.2 -6.8 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 2.9 -0.8 0.8 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 2.3 0.1 1.1 F Constrution 86.8 87.8 80.5 80.1 -1.3 -0.5 -8.8 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 114.6 115.2 112.9 112.5 -1.0 -0.3 -2.3 H Transportation and storage 49.8 50.2 48.2 48.1 -2.8 -0.3 -4.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 34.0 33.9 33.6 33.5 0.6 -0.3 -1.4 J Information and communication 22.5 22.6 22.5 22.5 2.8 0.1 -0.6 K Financial and insurance activities 24.5 24.6 24.1 24.1 1.0 0.0 -2.1 L Real estate activities 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.7 -0.7 -2.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 44.8 44.1 46.1 46.4 4.6 0.6 5.2 N Administrative and support service activities 25.6 25.1 26.0 26.1 -1.7 0.1 3.8 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.5 51.4 52.0 52.3 1.1 0.6 1.6 P Education 61.7 61.8 63.5 63.5 2.8 0.0 2.9 Q Human health and social work activities 52.1 52.3 52.8 53.1 2.1 0.6 1.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.3 1.8 -0.1 1.5 S Other service activities 13.3 13.2 13.5 13.5 3.7 -0.1 2.1 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 7.0 3.8 1.1 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. and there were 723 first-time job-seekers. On the other hand, 4,699 unemployed persons found work, which is approximately at the level of the past four months as a whole and still 10% more than a year before. The number of registered unemployed declined by another 2,438 for other reasons. The registered unemployment rate remained unchanged in April, 10.6%. Table 3: Labour market indicators in % 2009 IV 10/ III 10 IV 10/ IV 09 I-IV 10/ I-IV 09 Labour force 0.2 0.3 -0.8 -1.0 Persons in formal employment -2.4 0.3 -2.8 -3.5 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.5 0.0 -2.9 -3.6 Registered unemployed 36.6 0.4 19.9 26.8 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 -1.1 4.2 3.8 - private sector 1.8 -2.0 6.1 5.3 - public sector 6.5 1.2 -1.1 -0.7 2009 IV 09 III 10 IV 10 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 9.1 8.8 10.6 10.6 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,438.96 1,423.19 1,499.23 1,483.44 Private sector (in EUR) 1,338.77 1,311.70 1,421.25 1,392.36 Public sector (in EUR) 1,749.82 1,771.23 1,729.97 1,751.16 The average gross wage per employee declined in April (by 1.1% in nominal terms) and its y-o-y growth was slightly slower (4.2%). Y-o-y growth amounted to 3.8% in the first four months, 1.6 p.p. less than in the same period last year; unlike last year, growth in the private sector was higher than in the public sector. Figure 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 19: Nominal gross wage per employee 2 0 -2 -4 Box3: Minimum wage according to the new Act According to AJPES data,1 43,323 persons employed by legal entities received the minimum wage in March.2 The number is much higher than the 2009 average (19,030), but nevertheless much lower than what we estimated at the adoption of the Minimum Wage Act, based on data on the distribution of persons employed by legal entities with regard to the gross wage level in 2008 (87,000 or more than 10% of all employed persons). This gap between the estimated and actual numbers of minimum-wage earners is attributable to a significant change in the distribution of employees as a result of dismissals in the private sector in 2009 (from October 2008 to March 2010, more than 46,000 people lost work). Figure20: Minimum-wage earners, March 2010 12000 The Minimum Wage Act determines the new amount of the minimum wage (since 1 March 2010), allowing for a gradual transition to the new minimum wage, provided that the employer first obtains the consent of the trade union; unexpectedly,3 wages that most of the minimum-wage earners received for March were nevertheless much higher than the lowest provisional amount stipulated by law. The Act allows for a gradual accommodation to the full minimum-wage amount (EUR 734),4 but employees have to be paid at least the provisional amount (EUR 655 until 1 January 2011) since March. Based on AJPES data, the average gross minimum wage paid for March amounted to EUR 691,5 which is more than EUR 36 above the lower limit of the statutory minimum-wage and EUR 94 more than the previous minimum wage. The increase in the minimum wage also translated into a higher share of minimum-wage earners in all employed persons (from last year's 3% to 7% in March this year). Despite the possibility of a gradual transition to the minimum wage due to the crisis, more than 60% of all minimum-wage earners received minimum wages in the highest minimum-wage category6 for March, in the amount of EUR 686 to EUR 734. In private sector activities (A-N; S), the average gross minimum wage paid for March totalled EUR 6907 and was received by 38,931 persons or 8.5% of all private sector employees. In the private sector, enterprises had to consult with trade unions or workers' councils about whether they fulfilled the conditions for a gradual transition to the new minimum wage; nevertheless, as many as 57.5% minimum-wage earners received the highest minimum wages, in the range from EUR 686 to EUR 734. In all activities, except in administrative and support service activities, most of the employees received minimum wages in the highest category, while only just over 17% of employees received the lowest, provisional amount of the minimum wage (EUR 655); most of these employees were in administrative and support service activities and manufacturing. The average gross minimum wage in the private sector amounted to EUR 690 and reached 48.5% of the average gross wage in this sector;8 the ratio increased compared with 2009 (44.3%, 2008: 43.4%) and varies across activities, from only just over 30% in information and communication activities, up to 65.7% or 70.9%, respectively, 10000 iFrom EUR 686 to EUR 734 I From EUR 655 to EUR 685 I To UER 655 2000 A B C D E F G H I J K L Source: AJPES. M N O P Q R S Figure 21: Ratios of the minimum wage in the activity to the average wage in the activity and to the average minimum wage in the private sector, March 2010 Ratio of average gross MW in the activity to average gross wage in the activity (left axis) -Average (left axis) • Ratio of average gross MW in the activity to total average gross MW (right axis) 80 70 60 £= 50 40 30 20 10 0 102 101 98 97 J K D M B L E H C S G Source: AJPES. A F I N 1 Data also include employees working shorter hours and are not adjusted for the full-time equivalent. 2 According to data for April, the number only rose slightly (by 0.6% or 43,323, to 43,566). 3 We expected the transition to the new minimum-wage level to be gradual rather than immediate (IMAD Working Paper, No. 3/2010. 4 Conditions for a gradual transition to the stipulated minimum wage: if the payment of the minimum wage (EUR 734.15) would result in a substantial loss and threaten the existence of the enterprise or would cause a considerable number of employment contract terminations. 5 Calculation by IMAD. 6 Minimum-wage levels are determined according to the transitional amounts determined by law. 7 Calculation by IMAD. 8 According to Eurostat data for 2009, only Malta and Luxembourg have higher ratios (49.2% and 50.5%, respectively). 8000 6000 4000 0 99 96 95 in activities with the lowest wages, i.e. accommodation and food service activities and administrative and support service activities. The average minimum wage in this sector was exceeded in most of the activities (except in three), most notably in financial and insurance activities and mining (by 2.4%), while the lowest average minimum wage was recorded in administrative and support service activities (2.1% below the sector's average). The share of minimum-wage earners in all employed persons also rose, due to the increase in the minimum wage, from last year's 3.2% to 8.5% in March this year. Data on the shares of minimum-wage earners by activity for March show that administrative and support service activities had the highest share of minimum-wage earners in all persons employed in the activity (31.5%), followed by accommodation and food service activities (15.0%), other activities (14.8%) and construction (11.9%, Figure 3). Figure 22: Share of minimum-wage earners in all employees in the activity ^^ 2009 ^^ March 2010 -----Average 2009 -Average March 2010 20 "t^ 10 I JA iJlJ C D E F M N O P Q R S In public sector activities (O-R), the average gross minimum wage totalled EUR 7059 and was received by 4,392 persons, or 2.7% of ;; all employees in this sector (last year 0.3%). The average gross minimum wage in this sector reached 40.8% of the average gross wage in the sector. All activities have fairly equal ratios, but lower than in the private sector due to a higher level of the average gross wage. Overall 91.1% of all minimum-wage earners in this sector received the minimum wage in the highest category (between EUR 686 and EUR 734); this high share is a result of the government decision10 on paying the minimum wage in full (EUR 734). G H I J K L Source: AJPES. 9 Calculations by IMAD. View of the Government of the Republic of Slovenia on enforcement of the act of the minimum wage in the private sector, decision of the Government of the RS, 73rd regular session of 18 March 2010. In the private sector, the average wage dropped in April, as expected, and its y-o-y growth slowed. The decline in private sector wages (-2.0%) was expected, given that April was three working days shorter and in view of the dynamics of payments related to business results and overtime work in the previous year, which are disbursed in March.10 The level of the average wage still reflects the effect of the March increase in the minimum wage. The decline in wages was thus much less pronounced than the increase in the previous month;11 in six activities of this sector, April's average gross wage even increased (the most in construction, by 2.7%).12 Y-o-y growth in the gross wage in this sector slowed somewhat (6.1%), most notably in industry (B-E; 9.4%), where it is still highest. It strengthened in construction and business services (J-N, S; 2.5%), where it is nevertheless still lowest. Y-o-y growth in the average wage is still under the impact of changes in the structure of employment, which eased somewhat in April for the first time in one year and contributed 0.5 p.p. to 6.1% y-o-y growth.13 Figure 23: Gross wages in the private sector These payments in arrears made the greatest contribution to the 2.0% decline in this sector's gross wage (-1.5 p.p.). 11 With four working days more in March and three less in April (both in comparison with one month earlier) and under assumption that one-off payments related to business results and overtime work in the previous year tend to be disbursed in March. 12 Payments without payments for overtime work and payments in arrears contributed 1.6 p.p. and payments in arrears 1.4 p.p. The contribution of overtime payments was negative (-0.3 p.p.). 13 For more on the impact of changes in the structure of employment see SEM, January 2010, Box 3. 12 10 ^ e !E Industry (B-E) Construction (F) - Production services (G-I) - Business services (J-N;S) Source: SORS; calculations by I MAD. In the public sector, the average wage increased in April, as expected, due to regular promotions, but was nevertheless still much lower y-o-y. As a result of regular promotions, the average gross wage in this sector rose (1.2%) in all activities,14 but was nevertheless still 1.1% lower 14 Most notably in health (2.0%) and public administration (1.7%), followed by arts, entertainment and recreation (1.3%) and education (0.3%). 15 5 14 8 4 2 0 y-o-y.15 With the implementation of agreements now in force, y-o-y growth in the average gross wage in the public sector will total 5.9% at the end of this year, according to the Spring Forecast of Economic trends (IMAD). Figure 24: Gross wages in the public sector -----Public administration -Education -Human health and social work act. 1900 -----Arts, entertainment, recreation 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 1350 1300 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Prices Y-o-y inflation dropped further in June. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in June, while y-o-y inflation dropped to 1.9%. In the first half of the year, prices rose by 2.4%, similar to the same period last year (2.3%). According to the first Eurostat data, y-o-y inflation also declined in the euro area (from 1.6% to 1.4%). Price movements in 2010 reflect weak economic activity, excise policy measures, movements of the euro relative to the US dollar and growth in commodity prices in the international environment. In the first six months of this year, consumer prices thus largely increased as a result of growing commodity prices and, to a lesser extent, growth in prices of services, with relatively steady growth in public utility services, which were up 5.4% in this period. Prices of goods and services increased by 2.4%. As goods are given a higher weight in the consumer price index than services, their contribution to total growth is larger. Growth in prices of goods is largely underpinned by growth in energy prices, particularly prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating, which is impacted by oil price movements and is strengthening more in euros than in US dollars, and excise policy measures imposed by the government. Oil prices in euros increased by around Figure 25: Inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 15 This wage movement is attributable to the fact that wages were not adjusted for inflation in July last year, and to the temporary abolition of regular performance bonuses starting April 2009 and postponement of disbursement of the remaining two quarters of funds for the elimination of wage disparities, of which one should have been paid in September 2009 (Annex No. 1 and Annex No. 2 to the Collective Agreement for the Public Sector, OG RS 23/2009 and OG RS No. 91/2009). Source: SORS, Eurostat. 19% this year, contributing approximately 0.8 p.p. to 2.4% inflation through growth in prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating. Besides liquid fuel prices, prices of natural gas and district heating, which follow oil price movements with a delay and according to model-based calculations, also rose in the first half of this year (13.8% and 14.3%, respectively). Household electricity prices also went up, by 4.2%. Inflation was further impacted by the increase in excise duties on tobacco products in April (around 0.2 p.p.). Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 2.9% in this period, more than in the same period last year. Prices of non-energy durable industrial goods fall further and even more than in the same period of last year, mainly as a result of falling prices of personal cars. Higher prices of service contributed around 0.7 p.p. to inflation in this period, somewhat less than in the same period of last year. Amid the usual seasonal fluctuations in prices of package holidays, moderate growth in prices of services continues to reflect moderate economic activity. Consumer prices in Slovenia increased more than in the euro area average in the first five months of 2010 (measured by the HICP). In the euro area, prices rose by an average of 1.0% in this period, 0.5 p.p. more than in the same period of last year, yet 1.2 p.p. less than in Slovenia. The key differences between inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area as a whole are structural in nature, given that in Slovenia liquid fuels for transport and heating are given a higher weight in the consumer price index than in the euro area as a whole.16 With somewhat higher rises in the euro area than in Slovenia in the analysed period, these prices therefore contributed approximately 0.9 p.p. to inflation (HICP) in Slovenia and roughly 0.6 p.p. in the euro area. In this period, prices of services also increased somewhat more in Slovenia than in the euro area, due to accelerating public 16 As an average Slovenian household allocates a relatively higher share of expenditure for liquid fuels than an average household in the euro area. 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Box4: Excise policy Figure 26: Y-o-y inflation in Slovenia with and without impacts of taxes 8 In line with the amendment to the Excise Duty Act, the proposed supplementary budget for 2010 envisages additional general government inflows due to the increase in excise duties on tobacco, natural gas, electricity and alcohol. However, these rises will also have a sizeable impact on inflation. While contributing to an expected increase in general government revenue, higher excise duties are also very likely to increase retail prices of these products, and by extension, consumer prices. April's increase in excise duties on tobacco contributed 0.2 p.p. to inflation. Inflation will rise by another 0.9 p.p. due to excise duty rises foreseen for the second half of 2010 (excise duty on electricity 0.6 p.p.,1 and excise duties on tobacco, natural gas and alcohol 0.1 p.p. each). In 2011, excise duties on tobacco will contribute a further 0.1 p.p. to inflation. Besides excise duty rises that have already been proposed and carried out, excise will also be raised for fuels for transport " and heating this year. The first half of March first saw a slight -decline in excise duties on liquid fuels for transport, while excise duties on all liquid fuels have already changed twice in a row since 18 May, with retail prices being modified every two weeks. The coming months are expected to see further excise duty rises, which is related to the introduction of the CO2 tax on liquid fuels for transport (EUR 0.03) in March 2011, when excise duties will be reduced by this amount. This year's net increase of EUR 0.01 in excise duties on liquid fuels for transport will thus contribute between 0.1 p.p. and 0.2 p.p. to inflation. This year, the total contribution of excise duty rises could thus come close to 1 p.p., the same figure as last year. Source: Eurostat. Certain other taxes have also been changed this year. To cut back the black economy and boost job creation, in January the government reduced the VAT rate on some specific, local services, such as hairdressing, small repair services (shoes, bicycles), domestic care services; the system of calculating motor vehicles tax was also changed in March, which was reflected in a decline in retail prices of personal cars. These tax changes have reduced measured inflation: had they not been changed, inflation would have been somewhat higher in the first quarter, according to SORS data. Figure 27: Y-o-y inflation with and without impacts of taxes in euro area countries, last year and in the first four months of this year 3.0 2.5 2.0 . 1.5 C - 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 I Impacts of taxes I HICP (excluding impacts of taxes) -HICP 5 4 3 2 1 J= 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 I Impacts of taxes I HICP (excluding impacts of taxes) -HICP A Jan.-Apr. 2010 Source: Eurostat. Source: Eurostat. Estimate of the MF; according to IMAD's estimate, the contribution could be half lower. 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 Table 4: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - the first five months of 2010 Evro area Slovenia Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 1.0 100.0 1.0 2.2 100.0 2.2 Goods 1.7 58.0 1.0 2.7 66.2 1.8 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0.3 11.9 0.0 2.1 14.8 0.3 Non-processed food 2.6 7.3 0.2 5.1 6.9 0.3 Non-energy industrial goods 0.2 29.3 0.1 -0.1 30.7 0.0 Energy 7.2 9.6 0.7 8.7 13.9 1.2 Electricity for households 0.8 2.4 0.0 4.3 2.6 0.1 Natural gas 3.6 1.5 0.1 11.0 0.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 18.4 0.8 0.1 20.7 1.5 0.3 Solid fuels 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 1.0 0.0 District heating -4.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 0.8 0.1 Fuels and lubricants 11.1 4.3 0.5 8.7 7.2 0.6 Services 0.2 42.0 0.1 1.4 33.8 0.5 Services - dwellings 0.9 10.2 0.1 3.8 2.7 0.1 Services - transport 0.7 6.6 0.0 0.9 5.2 0.0 Services - communications -0.1 3.3 0.0 1.5 3.4 0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care -0.7 14.8 -0.1 1.4 14.3 0.2 Services - other services 0.6 7.1 0.0 1.1 8.1 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 0.1 83.1 0.1 0.8 79.3 0.6 Source: Eurostat. calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification utility prices. As a result of excise duty rises, price of tobacco products also rose more than in the euro area. Producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market increased further y-o-y in May. After turning positive in February 2010 after nine months of decline, y-o-y growth in these prices rose to 2.6% in May, from 0.7% in April. Y-o-y rises in these prices still largely reflect price movements in the manufacture of metals and metal products, where y-o-y growth had already exceeded 16% in May, and in the manufacture of food products, where y-o-y price declines diminish steadily (totalling a mere 0.6% in May). Price movements in these industries largely follow those in the international environment, where commodity prices are slowly but steadily driven up by strong demand from emerging economies. Figure 28: Growth in prices of public utility services in Slovenia and in the euro area last year and in the first five months of this year Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. cQ ej i- Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 12 12 9 9 6 6 3 3 0 0 Figure 29: Growth in industrial producer prices -PPI (domestic market) ---------EL., GAS, STEAM, AIR COND. SUPPLY -MANUFACTURING -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., exc. mach. and equip. ----Mfr. of food products; beverages and tobacco products Figure 30: Nominal and real effective exchange rates 10 is 0 -5 tp -10 -15 -20 J^ Ji Ji Ji Ji Real, deflated by CPI - Real, deflated by PPI - Nominal effective exchange rate Source: ECB, SORS, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. After improving for three months, price competitiveness of Slovenia's economy deteriorated for the second successive month in April, under the impact of consumer price growth that was faster than in Slovenia's trading partners. The real effective exchange rate, deflated by relative consumer price growth therefore increased again in April (by 0.5%). In April and in the first four months as a whole, the price competitiveness of the economy improved y-o-y (0.4% and 0.3%, respectively) due to the slump in the exchange rate of the euro, but the improvement was less pronounced than in most other euro area countries. Price competitiveness in manufacturing continued to improve in April (0.5% m-o-m and 2.8% y-o-y), with growth in producer prices of manufactured goods again being lower in Slovenia than in its trading partners. The deterioration of the cost competitiveness of the economy continued to slow in Slovenia in the first quarter, while in most countries in the euro area and in the EU, cost competitiveness increased. After five quarters of decline, labour productivity increased y-o-y in the first quarter, given that the falling in employment did not slow much despite a much slower decline in economic activity. With concurrent stronger growth in the compensation of employees per employee due to wage rises in the private sector, real unit labour costs and the real effective exchange rate increased somewhat in the first quarter (the former by 0.4% and the latter by 1.6%, according to our estimates), yet significantly less than in the last quarter of 2009. In the euro area and in the EU, real unit labour costs dropped in the first quarter,17 with slightly lower growth in labour productivity and much lower growth in the compensation of employees per employee than in Slovenia. A gradual catching-up with the euro area and the EU continued in the first quarter, but Slovenia nevertheless remains among the EU countries with the worst movements of cost competitiveness. Tabela 5: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness y-o-y growth rates, % 2008 2009 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 Real, deflator CPI -2.7 -0.7 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 Real, deflator PPI 0.8 2.8 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 Real, deflator ULC 3.4 5.8 5.4 4.6 5.2 1.6 Unit labour costs, economy and components Nominal unit labour costs 6.2 9.3 11.4 7.5 3.7 1.0 Compensation per employee, nominal 7.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 3.4 Labour productivity, real 0.7 -5.8 -7.6 -5.0 -1.6 2.4 Real unit labour costs 2.3 7.2 8.7 6.7 2.9 0.4 Labour productivity, nominal 4.5 -3.9 -5.3 -4.4 -0.8 3.0 Source: SORS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD; calculations by IMAD. Note: ^relative to the 17 trading partners 17 Data on the movements of the real effective exchange rate, deflated by unit labour costs, for other euro area and EU countries are not available yet. Figure 31: Real unit labour costs in Slovenia and euro area average RULC Slovenia RULC euro area -Labour productivity, Slovenia -Labour productivity, euro area ---------Compensation per employee, Slovenia ---------Compensation per employee, euro area 12 a a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 32: Real unit labour costs in euro area countries 12 [ -15 —1—ILU^OnQQ — CQlJOn LiJULiJLiJ< Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. The relatively worse position of Slovenia's economy was mainly a result of the pronounced deterioration of cost competitiveness in the construction sector. Growth in unit labour costs, which is also slowing steadily in construction, was still high (9.9%) in the first quarter due to a strong decline in value added. Cost competitiveness of other sectors of Slovenia's economy, with the exception of agriculture and fishing, improved in the first quarter, most notably in manufacturing, where negative trends had already turned positive in the last quarter of 2009. Despite much faster y-o-y growth in the compensation of employees per employee, also under the impact of the minimum-wage increase, real unit labour costs in manufacturing dropped at an accelerated pace in the first quarter (-2.3% against -1.4%), with labour productivity increasing even more signficantly, largely due to the contraction of employment.18 Figure 33: Cost competitiveness by sector in the first quarter of 2010 ■ Compensation per employee Hlabour productivity, nomina^RULC A, B C, D, E D F G, H, I J, K L -P Total Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit of EUR 45.8 m in April, and a deficit of EUR 139.6 m in the first four months of 2010 (EUR 255.4 m in the same period of last year). This year, April's deficit largely resulted from changes in the balances of current transfers and trade in goods. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes was also somewhat higher. The surplus in trade in services increased somewhat. International trade in goods and services again recorded a surplus in April. The y-o-y increase in the deficit in trade in goods was mainly a consequence of the narrowing surplus in trade with non-EU Member States. With growth in nominal exports to the EU picking up and with somewhat lower growth in imports of goods, the deficit in trade in goods with EU countries reduced somewhat y-o-y in April. The total deficit in trade in goods totalled EUR 182.3 m in the first four months of this year. The surplus in the services balance widened once again in April, but dropped y-o-y. The decline was mainly related to a wider trade deficit in licences, patents and copyrights, and narrower surpluses in trade in maritime transport and construction services. In the first four months of the 18 Growth in the compensation of employees per employee increased to 9.1% (from 4.9%) and labour productivity to 13.1% (from 8.5%). With value added growing again (1.8%), the pronounced decline in employment in manufacturing continued in the first quarter (-10.1%). Table 6: Balance of payments I-IV 10, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-IV 09 Current account 7,550.3 7,689.9 -139.6 -255.4 - Trade balance (FOB) 5,680.5 5,862.9 -182.3 -214.4 - Services 1,252.9 932.5 320.4 336.6 - Income 304.6 527.6 -222.9 -273.5 Current transfers 312.2 366.9 -54.7 -104.1 Capital and financial account 3,059.9 -2,814.6 245.3 -153.3 - Capital account 55.3 -90.5 -35.2 -6.7 - Capital transfers 54.9 -89.8 -34.9 -4.8 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.4 -0.7 -0.3 -2.0 - Financial account 3,004.6 -2,724.1 280.5 -146.6 - Direct investment 36.9 -181.6 -144.7 -185.6 - Portfolio investment 2,217.2 -500.1 1,717.1 1,876.6 - Financial derivates 0.3 -18.4 -18.0 -19.1 - Other investment 656.6 -2,024.0 -1,367.4 -1,927.6 - Assets 524.9 -241.3 283.6 558.5 - Liabilities 131.7 -1,782.7 -1,651.0 -2,486.1 -Reserve assets 93.6 0.0 93.6 109.0 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -105.7 -105.7 408.7 Sources: BS. Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Figure 34: Components of the current account balance ■ Trade balance I Factor incomes -Current account I Services balance ■ Current transfers 100 0 . -100 oi : -200 ) -300 -400 Source: BS. year, the services balance recorded a surplus of EUR 320.4 m, which is EUR 16.1 m less than in the same period of 2009. The deficit in factor incomes remained more or less unchanged y-o-y in April, while the balance of current transfers recorded a deficit, after last year's surplus. As interest rates in international financial markets remained low, domestic commercial banks continued to record low net interest payments on foreign loans. Due to issued bonds, the net outflow of interest on investments in general government securities increased significantly y-o-y. In April, Slovenia's net budgetary position recorded a surplus against the EU budget, as the funds received under the Common Agricultural Policy were not recorded in the integrated budget. International financial transactions strengthened in April, reaching EUR 100.8 m (EUR 29.9 m in the previous April). The net capital inflow of the private sector exceeded the net capital outflows of the BS and the general government. The level of the net capital inflow of the private sector was largely impacted by foreign investment in domestic securities. SID Bank (SID - Slovenska izvozna in razvojna banka) issued its first (5-year) bond in international capital markets (worth EUR 750 m, with a 3% annual interest rate) in April. One fourth of the amount was purchased by investors from Slovenia and the rest by foreign investors, largely from Germany, Austria, Southern Europe and Benelux countries. The proceeds were partly used to repay foreign debts, by our estimate, while the rest was deposited in bank accounts abroad. After a high net capital inflow in March (EUR 366.6 m) due to the issue of long-term securities, the general government recorded a net capital outflow of EUR 46.9 m in April. The net capital outflow of the BS was relatively modest in April, at EUR 41.0 m. The BS continued to sell capital market instruments and again reduced its liabilities against the TARGET position. Net external debt totalled EUR 11.1 bn at the end of April (31.7% of estimated GDP) and was EUR 581 m higher than at the end of last year (by 1.6 p.p. of estimated GDP). At the end of April, Slovenia's gross external debt totalled EUR 40.9 bn Figure 35: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector I Private sector I Bank of Slovenia ■ Country -Net financial flow 1000 E 0 -1000 S Q Source: BS. S Q (117.2% of GDP), EUR 828 m more than in December 2009. Gross external claims in debt instruments also increased, totalling EUR 29.8 bn at the end of April (85.5% of GDP), which is EUR 247 m more than in December 2009. Financial markets Lending activity of domestic banks in May was at a similar level as in previous months. This time the bulk came from net household borrowing, which was at a similar level as in the previous month, while corporate and NFI borrowing declined and government borrowing strengthened. As to the sources of finance, banks continued to make net repayments on foreign loans; government deposits recorded net outflows for the fourth month in a row, while household deposits were somewhat stronger. Figure 36: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors I Enterprises&NFI (left axis) ■ Households (right axis) - Total (right axis) 32 Households (left axis) I Government (left axis) - Enterprises&NFI (right axis) 800 600 24 ^ 0 O Si O Source: BS; calculations by I MAD. The volume of loans again recorded 0.4% monthly growth in May. Banks recorded net lending of EUR 653.5 m in the first five months of this year, just over 1% less than in the same period of last year. This relatively small y-o-y decline is to a great extent a result of lower net repayments of foreign currency loans, while euro borrowing dropped by close to a quarter y-o-y. Lending activity in the euro area strengthened in May. Net flows of loans (EUR 55.5 bn) recorded the highest value after October 2008, close to two thirds of the average value recorded in the time of vigorous growth in loans Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 09 31. V 10 31. V 10/ 30. IV 10 31. V 10/ 31. XII 09 31. V 10/ 31. V 09 Loans total 32,444.95 33,098.49 0.4 2.0 2.8 Enterprises and NFI 23,161.09 23,485.22 0.2 1.4 0.3 Government 870.95 912.18 4.4 4.7 8.6 Households 8,412.91 8,701.10 0.6 3.4 9.5 Consumer credits 2,899.95 2,886.98 0.0 -0.4 1.0 Lending for house purchase 3,927.13 4,251.30 1.9 8.3 19.6 Other lending 1,585.84 1,562.82 -1.5 -1.5 1.9 Bank deposits total 14,313.07 14,670.13 1.2 2.5 3.9 Overnight deposits 5,655.00 6,136.06 4.4 8.5 9.7 Short-term deposits 5,116.28 4,234.51 -3.8 -17.2 -23.7 Long-term deposits 2,874.95 3,563.09 2.2 23.9 51.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 666.84 736.47 1.3 10.4 17.9 Mutual funds 1,856.30 1,911.66 -3.4 3.0 15.6 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. 1500 -500 16 8 -1500 -8 between January 2007 and the beginning of the crisis in October 2008. More than two thirds of net flows came from corporate and NFI borrowing, which was the highest in the last twelve months. Households in Slovenia raised only housing loans in May. With net inflows of EUR 77.4 m, housing loans reached what was the second highest level in this year. Households, on the other hand, net repaid consumer loans (EUR 0.5 m), and particularly loans for other purposes, which, with net repayments of EUR 24.1 m, recorded the highest value since June 2009. Net flows of household loans thus totalled EUR 288.2 m in the first five months of this year, which is by a factor of 1.4 more than in the comparable period of 2010. In May, net flows of corporate and NFI loans recorded the second lowest value in this year (EUR 38.3 m), while the volume of corporate and NFI loans increased once again y-o-y after four months of decline. In May, borrowing was again recorded only by enterprises, while NFIs net repaid loans taken out at domestic banks for the fourth month in a row. The breakdown by purpose shows that enterprises and NFIs largely raised loans for other purposes, which, at EUR 113.9 m, recorded the greatest net flows since October 2008. High net inflows of these loans, by our estimates, substituted working capital loans, which recorded net outflows of less than EUR 100 m. Positive net flows were also recorded by investment loans, which were, at EUR 22.1 m, somewhat below the previous month's level. Enterprises and NFIs borrowed a net EUR 234.1 m from domestic banks in the first five months of 2010, 13.0% more than in the same period of last year; the increase is, however, also due to the negative movements in the previous May. Corporate borrowing abroad also eased in April. Enterprises repaid foreign loans in the amount of EUR 13.5 m in April, Figure 37: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates ^^ Loans -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates 150 100 350 300 250 200 150 100 -319.4 ec D which is the highest level this year. Unlike in previous months, enterprises and NFIs net repaid long-term loans, while net repayments of short-term loans were negligible. In the first four months of this year, enterprises and NFI borrowing abroad recorded a net EUR 29.6 m, nearly three quarters less than in the same period of last year. The differences between domestic and foreign interest rates dropped somewhat in April, but were nevertheless considerable. Interest rates for corporate loans over EUR 1 m with a variable interest rate, or up to one year with a fixed interest rate, were 268 basis points higher than, on average, in the euro area. Banks net repaid foreign loans again in April, in the amount of EUR 271.7 m, the highest figure this year. Net repayments were largely a consequence of higher net repayments of long-term loans, with negligible net repayments of short-term loans, similar to what was recorded for enterprises and NFIs. Foreign deposits again recorded net outflows in April, but these were the lowest this year (EUR 6.6 m). In the first four months of 2010, banks net repaid foreign loans and deposits in the amount of EUR 1.0 bn, which is more than one fifth less than in the same period last year. Figure 38: Net bank borrowing abroad 1500 500 "Ü 0 -1000 I Deposits ■ Short-term ■ Long-term ll ec D Source: BS. The quality of bank assets continued to deteriorate gradually in May. In May, banks increased impairments and provisions by EUR 37.0 m, which is somewhat more than in the same month of 2009. In the first five months of this year, impairments and provisions climbed to EUR 184.9 m, which is an almost 30% higher figure than in the same period of 2009. Household deposits in banks recorded net inflows in the amount of over EUR 180 m in May, after two consecutive months of net outflows. This is the highest value since December 2008, which is, according to our estimation, mainly due to the disbursement of holiday allowances and, to a lesser extent, inflows from capital markets, which were characterised by extremely negative movements 1000 400 50 0 in May. The greatest net inflows were recorded for sight deposits (EUR 261.3 m), while compared with previous months, a relatively strong slowdown was seen in net inflows of long-term deposits, which dropped to the lowest value (EUR 75.8 m) since October 2009. Net inflows of all household deposits to banks amounted to EUR 357.1 m in the first five months of this year, down 17.7% from the same period last year. Government deposits again recorded a net outflow in May, but this outflow was much lower (EUR 80 m) than in the previous three months, as outflows were only recorded for short-term deposits. Government deposits saw a net outflow of EUR 0.9 bn in the first five months of 2010, compared with net inflows of EUR 1.9 bn in the same period of last year. Figure 39: Net inflows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds, and y-o-y change in stock Mutual funds (left axis) Other deposits (left axis) Long-term time deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) ----Long-term time deposits (right axis) 300 250 200 150 100 50 c 0 -50 cc =3 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 hill ™ 4 1II UhtSil CT 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 45 60 75 90 105 Public finance InMay,revenuesfromtaxesandsocialsecuritycontributions increased for the second successive month (7.3%), being also higher y-o-y for the first time since January 2009 (1.8%). The increase in May was mainly related to inflows of corporate income tax, which were otherwise not high (EUR 19 m), but followed April's tax refunds (-EUR 69 m). Revenue from personal income tax also rose more notably relative to April (by 8.6%), with prepayments of tax on income from employment increasing by 10.0% (partly due to the first payments of holiday allowance) and with higher revenue from other personal income categories; the first part of personal income tax refunds based on tax assessments for 2009 was also paid in May (nearly EUR 23 m). Revenue from excise duties19 in May was somewhat higher than in April, yet 4.9% lower than in the same month of 2009. May saw further fluctuation in monthly revenue from value added tax (VAT), also due to shorter deadlines for tax refunds. VAT inflows dropped again in May (by 18%), after increasing in April, but were up 8.7% compared with the previous May. Revenue from social security contributions also declined in May (by 1.2%), but was higher y-o-y (1.6%). In the first five months of 2010, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Only revenue from value added tax increased. According to data on paid taxes and social security contributions,20 payments amounted to EUR 5.1 bn in the first five months. Even though VAT inflows shrank significantly at the beginning of the year due to shorter deadlines for tax refunds, they were nevertheless 4.3% higher y-o-y in the first five months, particularly due to the effect of a very low base, as in the first months of 2009, VAT Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 19 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 20 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-May 2010, Public Payments Administration. Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2009 2010 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-III 10 EUR m III 10/ III 09 I-III 10/ I-III 09 Revenues - total 14,404.0 41.3 -6.1 3,310.1 -2.1 0.8 - Tax revenues 12,955.3 37.1 -7.0 2,983.4 -7.4 -2.5 - Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 8.0 -18.5 635.4 -12.3 -10.2 - Social security contributions 5,161.3 14.8 1.3 1,274.4 1.8 -0.8 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,660.1 13.4 -3.0 1,023.9 -15.9 0.8 - Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 1.7 63.3 139.1 203.4 125.0 Expenditure - total 16,365.4 46.9 6.0 4,035.3 0.5 4.1 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,912.3 11.2 9.3 958.2 -0.4 -0.7 - Purchases of goods and services 2,506.8 7.2 -0.8 555.5 5.2 1.5 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,024.1 17.3 7.3 1,529.0 7.2 6.5 - Capital expenditure 1,293.3 3.7 3.3 192.8 1.5 9.9 - Capital transfers 495.2 1.4 8.1 47.2 -15.2 31.7 - Payment to the EU budget 439.3 1.3 2.7 150.6 -37.3 1.1 inflows dropped the most due to lower economic activity. Revenue from excise duties was lower y-o-y in May for the third month in succession, dropping by 1.5% y-o-y in the first five months as a whole. Excise duties were generated at higher rates than in the same period last year, but the quantity of excise goods sold was significantly lower. In the first five months of 2010, the greatest y-o-y decline was recorded for revenue from corporate income tax (over 60%). Revenue declined as a result of refunds according to tax assessments based on business results for 2009, tax relief and a lower tax rate. The newly determined monthly prepayments are therefore also much lower than last year, as tax payers can request a reduction on the basis of deteriorated business performance in the current year and a 1 p.p. lower statutory tax rate (20.0%). Revenue from personal income tax was 2.0% lower y-o-y in the first five months. Revenue from tax on income from employment dropped by 0.3%, while revenue from other sub-categories of personal income tax declined by nearly 20% - particularly revenue from taxes on income from entrepreneurial profits, which declined as a result of tax assessments based on business results for the previous year. Social security contributions dropped by 0.3% y-o-y in the first five months of 2010. Growth in revenue from social security contributions had already been slowing from month to month towards the end of last year and turned into a decline in January. In the first five months, the decline in this revenue was somewhat smaller than in the first four. Figure 40: Domestic taxes on goods and services ■ Other domestic taxes Excise duties BValue added tax 500 Source: Public Payments Administration; calculations by IMAD. According to the consolidated balance21 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 3.3 bn and general government expenditure EUR 4.0 bn in the first three months of 2010. In the first three months, revenue was 0.8% higher y-o-y, while it had been 2.6% lower y-o-y in 2009. Expenditure increased by 4.1% y-o-y in the first three months, much less than in the previous year (14.4%). Fiscal imbalances persist, given slower growth in general government revenue due to tax reforms from previous years and the deteriorated macroeconomic environment, and amid a concurrent hike in general government expenditure due to the operation of automatic stabilisers and the financial effects of anti-crisis measures. The deficit climbed to EUR 725 bn in the first three months of 2010. In terms of economic structure of expenditure, all categories of general government expenditure had already been higher y-o-y in the first three months of 2010, except expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures (-0.7%), and expenditure on subsidies (-2.6%). Capital transfers rose more than 30% y-o-y in the first three months and capital expenditure almost 10%. With higher general government debt, interest payments also increased (10.5%) at a rapid pace. Expenditure on transfers to individuals and households was 6.5% higher y-o-y in this period, or 11.5% not including pensions, with expenditure on transfers to the unemployed and expenditure on social security transfers growing the most given the deteriorating situation on the labour market (68.2% and 11.6%, respectively). Growth in expenditure on pensions slowed towards the end of last year, but in the first three months of this year, this expenditure was 3.7% higher y-o-y. Expenditure on goods and services also rose more notably in March and was 1.5% higher y-o-y in the first three months. Figure 41: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 160 145 š= 130 115 - Wages and other personnel expenditures - Expenditure on goods and services Transfers to individuals and households Capital expenditures and capital transfers (right axis) 250 200 150 21 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as the pension and health funds. Source: MF. The state budget deficit climbed to EUR 688 m in the first three months of this year. With expenditure increasing by 9.8%, the total balance of local government budgets recorded a deficit of EUR 16.2 m in the first three months. The deficit of the health fund stood at EUR 24.4 m. The pension fund was roughly balanced, thanks to a transfer of EUR 449 m from the state budget (a 14.3% higher figure than the year before). 100 85 50 Box 5: Supplementary state budget for 2010 The government has proposed a draft supplementary budget for 2010. The draft supplementary budget expects revenue to drop by EUR 540 m and expenditure by around EUR 600 m from what was planned in the state budget for 2010 passed in December last year. The budget deficit is estimated to be at EUR 1,768 bn (5.1% of GDP), EUR 58 m less than planned in the current budget. The proposed supplementary budget for 2010 sets revenue at EUR 8.1 bn, an increase of 7.6% in nominal terms compared with 2009. According to the revised estimates of general government revenue, tax revenues will drop the most, by 1% y-o-y, instead of rising by 7% y-o-y as anticipated in the budget adopted in December. The difference is most prominent in the corporate income tax category (EUR 281 m), where as a result of significantly higher tax refunds based on tax assessments for the previous year, tax inflows dropped much more than foreseen in the current budget. Revenue from corporate income tax will be as much as 37.8% lower y-o-y than initially planned (the current budget anticipates a slight increase). Domestic taxes on goods and services will also be lower than envisaged in the current budget (a decline of EUR 180 m). Even though excise duty rates were raised, revenue from this tax category will drop somewhat as the result of a lower quantity of excise goods sold. Revenue from environmental taxes will be lower than according to the current budget (CO2 emission tax). Revenue from personal income tax is also expected to diminish slightly, by 8.4% according to the revised estimate, more than anticipated in the current budget. Revenue from taxes on international trade and transactions will shrink by more than 1% y-o-y, while the current budget anticipates an increase. Besides tax sources, EU funds will be lower as well, by around EUR 117 m, but will nevertheless increase y-o-y, by as much as 74.5%. State budget expenditure for 2010 is estimated at EUR 9.9 bn and will increase by a nominal 6.6% compared with 2009, according to the draft supplementary budget. Expenditure as a share of GDP will rise by 1.8 p.p. of GDP, from 26.5% of GDP in 2009 to 28.3% of GDP in 2010. Capital expenditure and capital transfers will drop most notably relative to the budget adopted in December (by EUR 389 m). Expenditure on goods and services will decline by more than EUR 70 m in government bodies, and to some extent, in public institutions, as a result of streamlining and austerity measures. The draft supplementary budget also envisages small declines relative to the current budget in expenditure on wages, contributions and other personnel expenditures (EUR 18 m), expenditure on subsidies (EUR 27 m), expenditure on interest payments (EUR 31 m) and transfers into the pension fund (EUR 18 m). Payments into the EU budget will drop by EUR 25 m. Slightly more funds will be earmarked for transfers to individuals and households, particularly due to the operation of automatic stabilisers (unemployment benefits) and as a result of certain other transfers (EUR 15 m and EUR 17 m, respectively). Under financial assets and liabilities, the supplementary budget also envisages EUR 145 m to finance Slovenia's loan to Greece in 2010 as part of the euro-area package to bail out a fellow Member State. The proposed supplementary budget forecasts the fastest y-o-y increases for expenditure on domestic and foreign interest payments (46.6%), capital expenditure and capital transfers (16.8%) relative to last year's realisation, while rapid growth is also expected for expenditure on subsidies (9.7%), transfers to individuals and households (8.9%) and transfers into the pension fund (8.5%). Funds earmarked for wages, contributions and other personnel expenditure in government bodies are set to increase by a mere 0.7%. Other budgetary expenditure is expected to drop slightly y-o-y: expenditure on goods and services by 1.8%, other transfers by 1.0% and transfers to public institutions by 0.3%. The supplementary budget will adjust budget expenditure to match lower revenue, but the budget deficit will not narrow much compared with what was planned in December. Broken down by structure, budget expenditure will be mainly cut on account of reduced funding for investments, the realisation of which is postponed to the following years. The supplementary budget does not foresee any major interventions by the government to cut spending by introducing systemic austerity measures as already seen in some other European countries, which would be essential for a sustainable consolidation of public finance. State budget revenue has been estimated on the basis of current movements and forecasts; a further deterioration of the macroeconomic framework by the end of the year would therefore pose an additional risk for the realisation of the anticipated revenue. On the revenue side, great risk is also associated with the estimate of receipts from the EU budget and the increase in revenue from higher excise duties, all of which, along with significantly higher non-tax revenues, are insufficient to structurally fill the budget gap. Figure 42: State budget revenue and expenditure, 20092010 ■ Current expenditure ■ Tax revenues ■ Current transfers ■ Not-tax and other revenues ■ Capital expendit. & cap. transfers ■ Receipts from the EU budget ■ Payments to the EU budget Expenditure structure Revenues structure 2010 supplementary budget 2010 adopted budget 2009 realisation EUR billion Source: MF: calculations by IMAD. 0 3 6 9 Slovenia received EUR 26.2 m from the EU budget in May. Its payments to the EU budget were EUR 4.1 m higher. Somewhat more than 70% of receipts (EUR 18.6 m) came from the Structural Funds, of which the bulk from the European Regional Development Fund and a smaller portion from the European Social Fund. Slovenia received EUR 5.3 m under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies and EUR 1.8 m from the Cohesion Fund. Slovenia's net budgetary position relative to the EU budget recorded a deficit of EUR 24.1 m in the first five months of this year. In the first five months, receipts from the EU budget accounted for 17% and payments to the EU budged for 48% of what is planned in the supplementary budget for this year. The draft supplementary budget for 2010 estimates that receipts from the EU budget will be EUR 116.8 lower than initially planned in the state budget adopted in December, though nevertheless much higher than in 2009 (by EUR 442.9 m). Slovenia's receipts under the structural and cohesion policies are set to decline the most compared with what was planned in the state budget for 2010 passed in December (EUR 69.8 m and EUR 61.7 m, respectively), while funds for internal policies will decline less (EUR 10.8 m and EUR 5.4 m). Funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies will grow by EUR 12.8 m, while pre-accession funds remain unchanged. Payments into the EU budget will drop to EUR 412.8 m due to lower estimates of the traditional own resources and nominal GDP based on the new macroeconomic starting points and changes in the EU budget for 2010. Figure 43: Planned and absorbed EU funds Common Agricultural Policy Internal policies Other Pre-accession EU funds i ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 I Total funds received in 2010 (Jan-May) Total funds received in 2009 (Jan-Dec) 100 200 500 300 400 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 0 M %J a o ■Ö 01 u 31 0! The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook - survey of the main global economies The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook results for 2010 show an increase in competitiveness in Asian countries, and particularly, a loss of competitiveness in the US and the EU.22 This year's rankings were strongly impacted by the economic and financial crisis and its consequences for national economies. Out of 58 countries, Singapore and Hong Kong top the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook scale for the first time in decades, pushing the US to the third place. Switzerland and Australia are among the first five as well, with only one EU Member State - Sweden among the top ten. Improved rankings were mainly observed for Asian economies, which corroborates the findings of the IMF and other international institutions that the crisis in Asia was less deep than elsewhere across the world and that the recovery would be faster. According to the IMF, the crisis has also highlighted the economic importance of Asia, which is expected to propel global economic recovery in 2010 and in the coming year. However, strong economic growth does not only derive from China and India, but also from other emerging Asian economies. Last year, the IMD also made an overview of countries that are best prepared for the exit from the crisis, which we summarise in the following paragraphs. The highest ranking states on the IMD competitiveness scale are Singapore and Hong Kong, small, but very open economies, with Taiwan and Malaysia also being placed high. These economies have displayed great resilience through the crisis and have weathered it better than some other advanced western economies. Asian countries were mainly affected by the crisis through the decline in global trade and lower demand in advanced economies, but the crisis was softened by domestic demand in some of the greatest economies (China, India and Indonesia). At the onset of the crisis in 2009, economic activity in Singapore and Hong Kong declined by 2.0% and 2.7%, respectively. However, being highly adaptable, both have managed to take full advantage of the new opportunities that opened up with strong expansion in the surrounding emerging Asian countries, and the Singaporean economy grew by more than 13% in the first quarter of this year. The high rankings of these Asian countries are not only related to the international situation, but are chiefly due to structural reasons, as these countries are mainly open economies with stimulating tax systems, effective institutional frameworks and high business efficiency. The US and Switzerland preserved high rankings in 2010. Although the crisis affected the US in the last two years, it did not significantly undermine the international competitiveness of its economy, as the country only slipped by two places, to third. The US is ranked highest in terms of economic performance and infrastructure development, which indicates a high level of adaptability of the economy and the labour market to the fluctuations in economic activity. These good rankings also party reflect great optimism regarding the recovery, as managers and businessmen very positively assessed the implementation of government decisions and the adaptability of government policies during the crisis. The main risk to the recovery in the US is associated with public finances and uncertainties in the financial system, largely due a great lack of transparency in some financial institutions. Switzerland maintains its excellent position characterised by strong economic fundamentals (very low deficit, debt, inflation and unemployment) and a well-defended position on export markets. Swiss managers surveyed estimated business efficiency as good, even better than last year, particularly the support of the financial system in doing business. The crisis significantly affected the competitiveness of European countries and deteriorated the rankings of a number of countries on the IMD scale. Overall, in 2009, EU Member States were relatively more affected by the crisis and had worse prospects for recovery than other countries around the world. With the exception of Sweden and Norway, which are still among the most competitive economies in the world, Scandinavian countries recorded large drops on the competitiveness scale. Denmark slipped by eight places and Finland by ten; both were also characterised by the pessimistic mood regarding the current situation expressed by managers in the survey. Austria was also ranked high and scored much better than last year on the infrastructure indicator (basic infrastructure, scientific infrastructure, health and education). Among the EU countries, greatest progress on the competitiveness scale was recorded by Poland, which was relatively less affected by the crisis and was the only EU Member State to see positive economic growth last year. Poland improved its rankings in all competitiveness factors, particularly economic performance and business efficiency. Germany is ranked 16'h, and is again at the top of the large European economies. This high ranking is largely a consequence of the fast recovery (one of the fastest in the EU), and a rebound in trade, given that Germany is the second largest exporter of manufactured goods in the world. According to IMD indicators, Germany also has sound financial reputation and excellent infrastructure, mainly in the area of green technologies, which can be a great competitiveness advantage in terms of development. France and Italy advanced on the competitiveness scale, but Italy's ranking is still relatively low. In both countries, the main limiting factors are public finances and business-unfriendly fiscal policy, with Italy also ranking low in business efficiency. 22 For the methodology of the survey Slovenian Economic Mirror, May 2010. nd Slo nking, see the X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Spring forecast 2010 forecast forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 415 518 618 315 -718 016 214 311 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,135 34,894 34,934 36,286 38,202 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,367 17,085 17,153 17,778 18,681 GDP per capita (PPS)1 19,700 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 88 88 89 91 84 Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 28,506 30,683 33,854 36,278 34,381 34,262 35,320 37,104 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 28,362 30,467 33,627 35,993 34,186 34,293 35,224 36,905 Rate of registered unemployment 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1* 11.1 11.6 11.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9* 7.2 7.6 7.3 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.7 4.2 3.7 0.7 -5.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.3 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 10.6 12.5 13.7 2.9 -15.6 4.3 6.3 7.4 Exports of goods 10.3 13.4 13.8 0.0 -15.2 4.7 6.4 7.4 Exports of services 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.9 2.9 6.1 7.6 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 6.6 12.2 16.3 2.9 -17.9 4.1 6.0 6.7 Imports of goods 6.8 12.7 15.8 2.6 -19.1 3.9 6.0 6.7 Imports of services 5.5 8.8 19.7 4.9 -10.2 4.9 6.0 6.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -498 -771 -1,646 -2,287 -340 -638 -1,095 -1,249 As a per cent share relative to GDP -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.2 -1.0 -1.8 -3.0 -3.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 40,9405- As a per cent share relative to GDP 71.4 77.6 100.8 105.0 114.7 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.364 1.358 1.358 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.0 -1.4 -0.5 1.7 2.3 As a % of GDP4 54.2 52.8 52.7 52.7 54.8 54.9 54.4 53.9 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.1 0.6 0.2 0.8 As a % of GDP4 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.2 20.6 20.6 20.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 9.9 11.7 7.7 -21.6 0.5 3.5 4.5 As a % of GDP4 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.9 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos, estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard; ^Consumer price index; ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64); 5end April 2010; ^According to preliminary calculations by IMAD, based on the quarterly data by SORS. PRODUCTION 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 8 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.2 2.5 -17.3 6.4 8.4 3.3 -7.7 -18.1 -24.5 -18.3 -7.0 -0.1 14.8 3.8 6.8 2.0 -2.0 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 5.5 -2.9 13.8 3.5 7.1 -1.2 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 -7.0 9.5 -4.4 5.6 34.4 -19.2 C Manufacturing 8.5 2.6 -18.6 6.9 8.7 3.7 -8.4 -19.9 -25.8 -19.5 -7.8 0.6 15.6 4.2 6.7 1.7 -1.2 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -11.1 2.1 -6.7 -2.3 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -6.0 -4.3 8.1 4.2 12.2 0.2 -5.5 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 18.5 15.7 -21.0 32.5 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 22.8 13.8 15.4 15.9 8.6 Buildings 14.3 11.5 -22.6 37.8 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 10.5 3.1 8.9 0.2 10.7 Civil engineering 21.9 18.9 -19.9 28.0 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 32.4 21.7 20.4 28.0 7.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 13.4 18.4 -9.2 26.7 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 Tonne-km in rail transport 6.8 -2.3 -24.2 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 9.7 10.1 -12.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.1 -15.5 -16.0 -10.0 -1.5 22.8 13.8 15.4 15.9 8.6 Real turnover in retail trade 6.1 12.2 -10.4 14.0 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.5 -11.3 -13.8 -11.1 -4.9 10.5 3.1 8.9 0.2 10.7 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 19.2 6.2 -21.5 22.0 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.6 -8.2 6.3 32.4 21.7 20.4 28.0 7.0 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 16.1 17.1 -21.4 20.7 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 -7.8 12.3 31.9 20.6 19.2 22.9 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 7.0 1.8 -1.3 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.3 -3.8 1.7 -2.7 4.0 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 3.6 3.2 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 4.9 5.2 5.8 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.2 2.3 11.7 -0.6 5.2 8.5 10.5 -2.1 1.1 8.9 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 8.4 -0.5 -6.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -11.0 -7.9 -4.7 -4.7 2.7 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 2.3 -2.8 -11.8 -1.8 -1.6 -3.1 -4.4 -9.6 -12.5 -11.5 -13.4 -1.6 -2.5 2.9 -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 492.2 529.9 449.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 129.0 94.6 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 42.2 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 13 3 -23 11 10 7 -16 -31 -28 -18 -14 -12 12 11 6 8 7 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 11 -6 -24 7 2 -3 -28 -35 -27 -19 -14 -7 5 2 -1 1 -3 - in construction 19 2 -50 15 9 3 -21 -43 -51 -55 -50 -57 11 9 6 5 2 - in services 29 26 -13 35 35 29 6 -18 -22 -11 -2 0 39 36 30 29 33 - in retail trade 27 22 -12 27 28 25 8 -16 -19 -9 -5 -4 27 30 26 28 26 Consumer confidence indicator -11 -20 -30 -19 -16 -17 -29 -39 -31 -23 -25 -25 -12 -18 -19 -19 -19 Source of data: SORS. Notes: "Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. 2008 2009 2010 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 9.3 0.5 -11.7 -13.2 -17.0 -21.5 -15.9 -29.7 -22.1 -21.4 -20.8 -17.5 -16.7 -19.5 -1.7 4.8 -8.7 -1.0 8.6 9.8 - - 14.4 -1.0 -14.7 18.8 -6.9 -3.8 -9.2 -21.7 -10.2 -7.9 4.5 13.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -6.0 -16.9 1.4 12.0 - - 9.8 0.8 -12.5 -15.4 -18.8 -23.7 -17.2 -31.5 -23.6 -22.3 -22.1 -19.4 -17.1 -20.8 -2.6 5.3 -8.5 -0.2 9.6 11.2 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 -5.1 -1.3 -2.7 -9.5 -4.7 -11.3 -9.6 -7.3 -11.9 -6.1 -5.1 -6.8 -9.6 -3.2 0.6 -3.5 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 -24.2 -19.8 -14.9 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -6.4 - - 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 -38.5 -30.8 -20.7 - - 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 -6.2 -15.5 -8.6 -16.7 -17.1 -12.6 -14.8 -15.1 -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.9 -3.7 4.2 3.2 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.3 -13.3 -5.2 -9.3 -14.9 -9.5 -11.5 -13.3 -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.6 -5.3 -0.6 -1.4 0.0 - 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 -27.6 -24.5 -20.4 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.6 -20.6 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.1 14.2 - 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.5 -16.9 -19.2 -13.2 -24.9 -25.3 -21.2 -27.5 -24.8 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.0 -0.7 -3.5 - - -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 3.6 -6.1 -6.9 3.6 -11.4 -1.8 -0.8 4.9 0.2 3.3 -3.9 -8.5 4.5 3.7 3.7 0.2 0.0 - 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 9.6 -1.5 10.7 4.3 -2.2 4.4 13.3 12.3 7.7 9.9 -1.5 -10.0 5.2 6.5 3.5 4.0 -3.0 - -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -12.5 -20.5 3.0 -16.9 -6.3 -10.3 0.1 -4.1 -1.8 -6.4 -6.9 3.9 -0.6 3.9 -2.8 2.0 -2.1 -1.1 -4.3 -7.6 -7.4 -12.3 -9.1 -10.6 -13.4 -13.3 -11.7 -9.7 -13.1 -13.8 -13.6 -12.7 -1.3 -2.9 -0.8 -3.0 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 - - 5 -5 -18 -24 -31 -29 -33 -34 -25 -24 -21 -19 -13 -13 -15 -13 -10 -11 -15 -12 -8 -6 -7 -21 -29 -33 -37 -33 -34 -32 -27 -22 -22 -20 -14 -16 -13 -12 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 2 1 -6 -21 -35 -39 -40 -49 -53 -47 -54 -50 -59 -55 -55 -47 -49 -55 -55 -61 -63 -58 -60 25 17 6 -6 -14 -16 -24 -25 -21 -21 -14 -13 -7 0 -5 -1 6 2 -8 -6 -3 -2 21 25 2 -4 -12 -14 -22 -17 -19 -20 -17 -4 -5 -6 -7 -3 -7 -3 -2 5 5 12 -12 -18 -34 -35 -43 -37 -37 -41 -29 -23 -26 -27 -16 -26 -24 -26 -26 -24 -26 -24 -22 -20 LABOUR MARKET 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 925.3 942.5 944.5 937.7 940.9 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 935.8 939.1 940.8 942.7 941.4 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 854.0 879.3 858.2 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 876.6 879.6 882.0 879.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 40.4 39.7 37.9 40.8 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 31.9 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.3 In industry, construction 321.9 330.4 306.9 327.1 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 330.0 331.2 332.6 332.5 Of which: in manufacturing 223.6 222.4 199.8 224.0 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 190.0 224.1 223.9 224.0 222.7 in construction 78.4 87.9 86.8 83.2 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 80.9 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.7 In services 491.6 509.1 513.4 503.0 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 513.5 506.8 508.6 509.6 508.1 Of which: in public administration 50.3 51.0 51.5 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 50.9 in education, health-services, social work 108.8 111.1 113.8 110.7 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 115.9 111.2 111.0 110.9 109.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 766.0 789.9 767.4 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 750.1 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 In enterprises and organisations 696.1 717.6 699.4 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 687.2 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 By those self-employed 69.9 72.3 67.9 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 62.9 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.9 89.4 90.8 89.6 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 86.2 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 71.3 63.2 86.4 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 99.4 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 Female 39.1 33.4 42.4 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 47.0 33.5 32.6 32.4 33.0 By age: under 26 11.9 9.1 13.3 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 14.7 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 aged over 50 22.2 21.9 26.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 Unskilled 28.0 25.4 34.1 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 38.2 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 For more than 1 year 36.5 32.3 31.5 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 38.1 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 Those receiving benefits 16.6 14.4 27.4 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 31.6 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 7.7 6.7 9.1 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 Male 6.2 5.6 8.3 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 Female 9.6 8.1 10.2 8.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 21.5 13.7 -5.2 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -0.8 -5.5 0.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.7 12.5 17.0 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 2.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 Redundancies 52.5 53.0 90.5 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 Registered unemployed who found employment 49.1 41.7 48.6 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 14.2 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.0 26.1 28.5 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 6.3 2.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 10.0 13.2 -9.6 3.7 5.9 4.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.6 -1.6 3.3 2.2 0.4 1.6 Retirements2 20.7 22.6 24.7 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 6.7 7.3 6.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 Others who found employment2 40.9 31.5 34.7 10.6 6.2 5.9 8.8 6.9 9.5 8.2 10.1 4.8 0.3 2.1 3.8 -0.4 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 20.2 20.0 13.4 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 14.0 13.0 12.6 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 For a fixed term, in % 76.5 74.5 78.1 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 78.9 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 60.2 81.1 86.6 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 77.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 As % of labour force 6.5 8.6 9.2 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 NEW JOBS 160.0 162.7 111.4 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 23.6 15.4 13.1 12.5 12.7 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. 2008 2009 2010 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.4 -4.1 -5.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.1 1.2 -0.1 -2.4 -0.1 0.2 -1.7 -0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -0.2 -1.9 -1.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 -0.2 6.6 4.6 2.7 1.4 1.2 1.7 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 2.1 4.4 5.1 5.7 -0.7 -2.2 3.6 3.4 6.2 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 76.5 76.3 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 2 3 4 5 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 5.9 8.3 3.4 7.8 8.6 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 3.7 6.1 9.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8.3 9.1 -0.2 10.3 9.3 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 8.3 16.1 6.7 10.3 9.7 B Mining and quarrying 6.4 13.4 0.9 9.4 13.8 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 3.4 5.2 9.7 13.3 11.8 17.0 C Manufacturing 7.0 7.5 0.8 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 10.1 6.0 10.2 8.5 11.3 8.4 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 6.2 9.5 3.8 9.3 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 4.7 8.4 10.2 9.3 13.2 9.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.1 7.8 2.0 8.3 9.1 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 7.2 9.8 8.1 10.7 6.8 F Constrution 6.6 7.5 1.0 7.7 9.6 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 7.5 8.8 6.7 11.9 7.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.6 7.7 1.9 7.5 9.0 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 2.6 6.5 8.8 7.1 10.0 8.0 H Transportation and storage 6.0 8.4 0.7 8.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 1.1 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.0 I Accommodation and food service activities 5.3 8.3 1.6 9.3 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.8 9.8 10.4 7.9 9.5 10.3 J Information and communication 5.7 7.3 1.4 6.8 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 1.0 3.3 6.4 10.5 8.9 6.1 K Financial and insurance activities 7.4 6.0 -0.7 8.6 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 1.2 7.4 7.9 10.6 11.8 6.4 L Real estate activities 7.0 6.0 1.9 6.8 8.6 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 6.3 8.3 5.8 10.1 8.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 7.0 8.4 2.1 9.7 8.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 1.6 9.2 10.5 9.3 8.7 7.9 N Administrative and support service activities 7.5 9.6 1.8 8.6 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 8.7 9.5 7.7 10.8 11.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.1 12.2 5.9 11.1 10.8 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 -1.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 12.0 10.0 P Education 3.9 7.0 3.6 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 Q Human health and social work activities 3.1 12.0 12.0 5.5 4.3 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 -0.4 3.1 7.2 6.1 3.2 3.8 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.6 5.3 3.9 2.4 5.8 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 4.5 5.9 -2.8 3.9 6.9 S Other service activities 3.3 8.2 1.3 6.6 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 6.6 6.2 6.9 10.3 8.8 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.3 2.8 0.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 Real (relative producer prices)2 2.2 0.8 2.8 1.2 1.0 -0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 1.1 1.0 1.4 2.2 0.9 USD/EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.500 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.472 1.475 1.553 1.575 1.556 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 'Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Producer prices in manufacturing activities 2008 2009 2010 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.8 3.8 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.0 -3.2 -3.8 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 PRICES 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 7 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 3.6 5.7 0.9 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 1.4 6.9 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 7.8 10.1 0.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 13.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 12.2 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.5 3.2 6.7 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 -0.2 Clothing and footwear 2.1 4.4 -0.6 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 6.7 7.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas 2.6 9.7 -0.3 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 8.3 10.4 9.3 11.4 13.4 13.6 Furnishings, household equipment 4.5 5.8 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.1 2.9 4.0 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 4.5 Transport 0.3 1.9 -3.0 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 1.2 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 Communications 0.3 0.6 -4.1 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 Recreation and culture 3.6 4.4 3.0 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 Education 1.9 5.2 3.4 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.0 7.0 7.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 Catering services 7.3 9.6 4.4 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.7 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.3 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.0 HCPI 3.8 5.5 0.9 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.7 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.9 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 2.6 4.6 1.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 5.1 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.2 3.8 -1.3 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 Domestic market 5.5 5.6 -0.4 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.3 Non-domestic market 3.0 2.2 -2.2 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.6 euro area 5.1 2.2 -3.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 1.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 non-euro area -0.5 2.1 0.3 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 Import price indices 4.0 1.3 -3.3 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 3.5 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.6 12.4 -12.3 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 16.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 23.2 24.8 Oil products -0.9 11.7 -12.0 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 21.9 16.4 12.6 15.3 24.1 25.5 Basic utilities -2.3 0.6 3.6 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 - 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Transport & communications 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1.3 Other controlled prices 2.9 1.8 4.9 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 Direct control - total 3.1 8.6 -6.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 14.1 10.4 8.5 10.8 15.7 16.3 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. 2008 2009 2010 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 3.7 3.7 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - - - - - -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -1,646 -2,287 -340 -425 -486 -642 -733 -267 142 -120 -95 -60 -120 -201 -165 -347 Goods1 -1,666 -2,650 -621 -489 -668 -751 -743 -149 -17 -208 -246 -72 -160 -285 -223 -263 Exports 19,798 20,048 16,203 5,084 5,349 5,038 4,577 3,940 4,072 3,960 4,231 4,213 1,866 1,716 1,767 1,809 Imports 21,464 22,698 16,825 5,573 6,017 5,789 5,320 4,090 4,090 4,168 4,477 4,285 2,026 2,002 1,990 2,071 Services 1,047 1,609 1,022 334 475 487 314 236 302 292 193 221 152 170 152 124 Exports 4,145 5,040 4,319 1,053 1,299 1,480 1,209 927 1,052 1,279 1,060 916 422 433 444 516 Imports 3,098 3,431 3,297 719 824 993 895 692 751 988 867 694 270 263 291 391 Income -789 -1,039 -651 -150 -259 -394 -236 -216 -154 -155 -125 -166 -82 -70 -107 -214 Receipts 1,169 1,264 982 266 326 335 336 245 242 234 262 229 111 106 108 111 Expenditure 1,957 2,303 1,633 416 585 729 572 461 396 389 387 395 193 177 215 325 Current transfers -239 -206 -90 -120 -33 16 -69 -137 12 -49 84 -44 -31 -15 12 5 Receipts 941 783 871 144 190 229 220 119 247 151 353 227 38 58 93 64 Expenditure 1,180 989 961 264 223 213 289 257 235 200 269 271 69 73 81 59 Capital and financial account 1,920 2,395 32 435 741 632 588 -176 -29 72 165 87 192 346 202 411 Capital account -52 -43 -11 -8 3 -8 -30 -5 41 -4 -43 -37 5 -3 1 -6 Financial account 1,972 2,438 42 443 738 640 618 -172 -70 76 208 124 188 349 201 417 Direct investment -210 381 -673 114 -142 128 281 -139 -312 -89 -132 -157 -49 -9 -84 125 Domestic abroad -1,317 -932 -625 -125 -450 -236 -122 -134 -324 -80 -86 -140 -160 -128 -163 -116 Foreign in Slovenia 1,106 1,313 -48 239 308 364 402 -5 13 -10 -46 -17 111 119 78 241 Portfolio investment -2,255 575 4,656 305 -1,152 165 1,257 873 1,149 2,326 308 1,099 -452 -457 -243 134 Financial derivatives -15 46 -9 30 4 5 6 -23 12 12 -9 -17 1 1 1 2 Other investment 4,313 1,415 -4,099 75 1,947 340 -947 -996 -964 -2,160 21 -862 602 797 548 229 Assets -4,741 -562 -314 -978 -187 388 215 766 -262 -1,073 254 301 384 194 -766 112 Commercial credits -400 -143 254 -518 -170 -9 554 51 16 -49 236 -219 -25 -98 -47 16 Loans -1,895 -541 -2 51 -442 158 -308 70 -73 -39 40 -341 17 -205 -254 255 Currency and deposits -2,454 117 -493 -502 385 258 -23 637 -207 -997 74 863 346 506 -468 -164 Other assets 7 5 -74 -9 40 -19 -7 7 2 12 -95 -2 46 -9 3 5 Liabilities 9,054 1,977 -3,785 1,054 2,134 -48 -1,162 -1,761 -702 -1,087 -234 -1,163 218 603 1,314 117 Commercial credits 499 -67 -520 179 309 -19 -537 -382 -89 26 -76 59 93 220 -4 38 Loans 3,841 1,868 -2,915 644 1,472 242 -490 -517 -1,320 -102 -975 -208 -173 512 1,133 112 Deposits 4,727 190 -318 253 346 -272 -137 -858 700 -983 822 -1,079 294 -128 180 -40 Other liabilities -13 -13 -32 -22 7 2 1 -5 6 -28 -5 65 4 -2 5 6 International reserves2 140 21 167 -81 80 1 21 114 46 -13 20 62 85 16 -21 -73 Statistical error -273 -108 308 -10 -255 10 146 444 -113 48 -70 -27 -72 -145 -37 -64 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,936 2,241 1,783 523 576 598 544 442 461 407 473 407 193 192 191 203 Intermediate goods 10,436 10,760 8,127 2,752 2,893 2,730 2,385 1,977 1,996 2,025 2,093 2,235 1015 925 953 976 Consumer goods 7,035 6,808 6,144 1,753 1,817 1,648 1,590 1,474 1,568 1,482 1,620 1,544 635 578 603 607 Import of investment goods 3,031 3,441 2,272 773 928 862 878 583 551 521 633 452 316 312 300 294 Intermediate goods 12,875 13,735 9,804 3,417 3,668 3,543 3,107 2,381 2,335 2,458 2,649 2,671 1,225 1,222 1,221 1,291 Consumer goods 5,601 5,870 4,991 1,459 1,520 1,475 1,416 1,195 1,262 1,255 1,292 1,267 518 503 500 520 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. 2008 2009 2010 10 11 12 10 11 12 -157 -138 -236 -164 -334 -73 -123 -71 12 46 83 -33 -107 20 -57 11 -48 -16 -124 46 -46 -298 -190 -266 -180 -297 -46 -34 -69 -65 -4 52 -45 -155 -9 -40 -68 -138 -11 -86 -21 -65 1,339 1,891 1,841 1,532 1,204 1,216 1,296 1,429 1,306 1,335 1,431 1,403 1,068 1,489 1,504 1,476 1,250 1,236 1,331 1,652 1,462 1,637 2,080 2,107 1,711 1,501 1,262 1,330 1,498 1,371 1,340 1,379 1,448 1,222 1,498 1,545 1,544 1,388 1,247 1,417 1,673 1,527 166 196 149 107 58 91 58 87 101 106 95 60 124 108 84 58 51 77 67 85 91 487 478 446 372 392 310 280 337 346 346 360 439 450 391 368 320 372 293 281 336 344 320 281 296 264 334 220 223 250 245 240 265 379 325 283 283 262 321 215 213 250 253 -50 -130 -83 -82 -71 -79 -72 -65 -57 -53 -44 -51 -50 -54 -47 -43 -35 -60 -59 -49 -55 115 109 108 105 124 86 80 79 78 81 83 79 77 78 83 84 95 73 71 84 77 165 239 191 187 195 165 153 144 135 134 127 130 127 132 130 127 130 133 130 133 132 25 -14 -36 -9 -24 -39 -74 -24 33 -2 -20 3 -27 -24 -54 63 74 -22 -46 30 -16 106 58 54 80 86 29 40 50 112 75 60 69 45 38 54 140 159 65 85 113 49 82 73 90 89 110 68 114 74 78 77 80 66 72 62 108 77 84 87 132 83 65 187 34 -130 279 439 43 -109 -110 23 90 -142 81 -78 70 92 24 50 59 81 -30 135 -1 -1 4 39 -73 -8 -2 5 -2 -2 44 -3 -2 1 1 25 -68 -7 -2 -28 2 188 35 -134 239 512 51 -107 -115 25 91 -186 83 -76 69 91 -1 117 66 83 -2 133 51 -48 -40 85 235 48 -57 -130 -46 -180 -86 -50 57 -96 -47 -48 -38 8 -43 -127 16 -34 -86 -81 -9 -32 -29 -48 -57 -97 -209 -18 10 -8 -81 -64 21 -43 -26 -77 -48 -31 85 38 41 94 267 78 -10 -73 51 29 -67 -60 66 -15 17 -69 5 34 34 -79 48 -207 238 387 658 212 410 559 -96 1,004 263 -118 862 -216 1,681 -13 -70 391 1,357 -449 205 604 2 2 2 2 2 -10 -13 0 4 8 -1 -2 6 8 0 1 -10 0 0 -17 -1 238 -127 -516 -489 58 -394 -682 81 -932 -62 30 -673 48 -1,535 143 104 -227 -1,350 568 -67 -518 -79 355 -435 19 632 83 595 88 -207 -811 756 -652 697 -1,117 274 -342 322 170 70 71 -27 147 -172 -43 132 465 149 -45 -52 28 48 -60 -5 75 -119 -43 -21 300 -17 -34 -158 -32 -377 280 -286 73 -95 -174 218 27 35 -49 -59 -57 59 -41 -1 29 12 -29 24 -335 395 153 269 -115 -191 283 97 413 127 -269 -808 870 -590 556 -963 315 -352 110 221 75 565 -398 -2 -22 9 5 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 3 2 -99 -6 5 -1 7 317 -482 -81 -508 -574 -477 -1,277 -7 -725 749 -726 -21 -649 -418 -131 446 -549 -1,520 497 -137 -491 -116 59 -67 -182 -287 -378 -3 -1 -36 -33 -20 5 -91 113 78 77 -231 -76 65 77 64 228 -98 37 -483 -44 -101 28 -444 -329 348 -1,339 14 -69 -47 -175 19 -819 -44 -15 -153 -286 206 -438 -51 159 -244 5 -1,303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 -133 -206 0 -5 0 -2 2 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 -8 0 -6 -1 72 -63 104 -30 33 -17 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 4 32 -30 104 366 -115 -105 30 232 181 -35 -136 58 -47 185 -90 -35 -34 -1 -44 43 -16 -89 152 243 201 185 158 128 152 162 171 141 149 147 110 150 167 154 151 117 122 168 N/A 756 998 981 816 589 644 637 695 646 652 698 722 552 751 782 730 581 662 724 850 N/A 411 629 638 511 441 429 491 555 478 524 567 517 392 572 540 578 502 448 475 621 N/A 226 342 289 279 310 172 161 249 190 187 175 170 154 197 218 208 207 122 151 179 N/A 1,029 1,222 1,309 1,017 782 758 803 820 762 759 814 861 711 886 913 937 799 792 876 1,004 N/A 404 551 544 441 431 353 389 453 437 416 408 434 381 441 447 433 413 357 389 520 N/A 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2007 2008 2009 2008 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 67 68 160 67 67 66 66 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 Central government (S. 1311) 2,367 2,162 3497 2,412 2,397 2,392 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 118 212 376 123 124 124 128 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 Households (S. 14, 15) 6,818 7,827 8413 6,918 7,009 7,133 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 18,105 21,149 21682 18,570 18,754 18,938 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,305 2,815 2703 2,390 2,411 2,494 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 2,401 3,666 5301 2,455 2,432 2,444 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 26,555 32,113 34730 27,164 27,406 27,768 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 In foreign currency 1,990 2,370 1895 2,117 2,192 2,280 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 Securities, total 3,570 3,346 5,348 3,586 3,529 3,477 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, l n EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 20,029 23,129 27967 20,088 20,674 20,779 20,774 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 Overnight 6,887 6,605 7200 6,924 6,557 6,787 6,711 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,913 10,971 9766 8,899 9,862 9,745 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 With agreed maturity -long-term 2,857 4,157 9703 2,845 2,803 2,814 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,372 1,396 1298 1,420 1,452 1,433 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 Deposits in foreign currency, total 559 490 433 571 560 520 529 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 Overnight 218 215 237 248 240 226 222 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 With agreed maturity -short-term 248 198 123 229 237 220 224 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 With agreed maturity -long-term 56 41 45 55 48 45 45 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 37 36 27 39 35 29 38 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.36 0.46 0.28 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 3.36 4.30 2.51 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.80 6.77 6.43 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 6.62 6.28 .. .. 5.63 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.2^ 4.2^ 4.2^ 3.7^ 3.25 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.28 4.63 1.23 4.48 4.36 4.60 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 6-month rates 4.35 4.72 1.44 4.50 4.36 4.59 4.80 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.55 2.58 0.38 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 6-month rates 2.65 2.69 0.50 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2008 2009 2010 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,898 3,001 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,648 8,701 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,795 21,896 21,950 22,059 21,997 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,665 2,620 2,608 2,558 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,429 35,620 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,215 5,200 4,723 4,871 4,819 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 26,950 26,860 26,930 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 10,720 10,487 10,283 9,779 9,722 9,479 8,582 8,347 8,029 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 7,952 8,190 8,315 9,688 9,928 10,260 10,431 10,894 11,005 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 1,199 1,243 1,304 1,298 1,354 1,320 1,307 1,357 1,319 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 462 457 454 433 426 439 436 450 495 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 144 141 122 123 117 120 110 103 104 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 54 54 57 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 31 32 28 27 21 26 22 23 35 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 - 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 2.5^ 2.0^ 2.0^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.73 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 1.01 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 - 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,006.1 15,339.2 14,408.0 3,369.3 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 1,463.1 1,259.9 1,282.8 1,342.2 Current revenues 13,467.2 14,792.3 13,639.5 3,274.0 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.7 1,435.7 1,228.7 1,216.6 1,306.1 Tax revenues 12,757.9 13,937.4 12,955.4 3,110.0 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 1,374.1 1,175.5 1,152.4 1,253.4 Taxes on income and profit 2,917.7 3,442.2 2,805.1 694.4 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 635.5 498.3 316.7 291.5 297.9 Social security contributions 4,598.0 5,095.0 5,161.3 1,203.1 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 419.0 415.8 419.5 425.8 Taxes on payroll and workforce 418.1 258.0 28.5 59.4 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 6.3 20.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 Taxes on property 206.4 214.9 207.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 24.1 12.0 28.6 22.1 23.0 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,498.6 4,805.3 4,660.2 1,099.4 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 411.5 383.4 386.9 475.3 Taxes on international trade & transactions 117.1 120.1 90.5 25.6 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 18.7 12.3 10.5 10.9 9.8 Other taxes 2.1 1.8 2.9 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 Non-tax revenues 709.2 854.9 684.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.4 191.3 189.3 174.4 61.6 53.1 64.3 52.7 Capital revenues 136.6 117.3 106.5 28.0 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 6.2 5.8 14.9 12.9 Grants 11.9 10.4 11.1 2.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 2.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 Transferred revenues 42.5 53.9 54.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 348.0 365.4 596.5 64.0 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 139.1 19.3 25.3 50.2 21.5 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,915.5 15,441.7 16,368.2 3,388.6 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.2 1,228.6 1,363.5 1,200.8 1,139.6 Current expenditures 5,950.9 6,557.5 6,797.3 1,575.9 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.6 528.6 544.9 508.2 507.2 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,276.9 3,578.9 3,912.3 819.7 906.8 892.5 959.8 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 985.9 958.2 277.7 338.9 290.3 292.5 Expenditures on goods and services 2,212.2 2,527.5 2,506.8 523.1 589.3 586.1 829.0 547.1 618.0 603.9 741.4 555.5 184.8 199.2 205.3 204.0 Interest payments 357.0 335.2 335.9 221.0 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 29.0 272.6 61.4 2.5 5.8 4.9 Reserves 104.8 116.0 42.3 12.1 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.9 9.4 4.6 4.3 6.8 5.9 Current transfers 6,143.9 6,742.2 7,340.3 1,489.9 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 580.1 707.5 569.2 513.9 Subsidies 423.4 476.5 597.9 60.5 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 86.7 83.7 72.6 16.6 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,093.3 5,619.2 6,024.1 1,303.5 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 445.0 566.4 437.5 442.0 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 595.3 598.3 679.5 118.7 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 195.1 150.6 46.2 50.5 54.5 54.0 Current transfers abroad 32.0 48.2 38.9 7.2 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 8.7 2.2 6.9 4.6 1.3 Capital expenditures 1,130.5 1,255.5 1,293.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 584.1 192.8 69.3 68.4 78.2 77.7 Capital transfers 334.3 458.6 495.2 30.6 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.0 259.9 47.2 18.9 19.2 24.3 21.8 Payments to the EU budget 355.9 427.9 439.3 143.2 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 150.6 31.7 23.6 20.9 18.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT 90.6 -102.5 -1,961.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2008 2009 2010 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 1,305.0 1,491.6 1,123.2 1,067.7 1,092.1 1,199.9 1,102.2 1,240.7 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.2 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,418.1 1,076.9 1,164.2 1,069.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 1,184.7 1,423.5 1,112.4 1,029.2 1,062.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 1,151.5 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,253.2 1,048.1 1,116.0 993.6 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 1,126.5 1,292.7 1,068.5 980.1 1,010.3 1,076.2 996.5 1,091.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.5 994.1 1,053.8 935.4 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 219.9 191.3 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 414.6 435.7 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 8.6 8.8 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 413.3 395.8 331.1 401.7 291.0 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 6.9 6.1 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 98.5 110.6 61.1 58.1 130.9 43.8 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.8 46.4 69.8 75.1 54.3 57.3 77.7 54.0 62.2 58.2 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 9.2 27.5 2.3 2.7 4.8 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 22.4 70.6 39.3 77.0 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.3 45.0 67.9 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 1,452.7 1,919.2 1,119.8 1,408.5 1,348.8 1,255.5 1,478.1 1,330.9 1,249.6 1,264.6 1,252.9 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,813.4 1,307.1 1,372.2 1,355.9 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.6 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 542.0 672.1 520.1 631.7 643.8 292.5 307.6 292.9 306.4 360.5 305.3 333.1 326.6 312.7 374.0 318.9 325.6 318.1 311.7 325.4 323.6 336.9 317.1 315.7 325.4 185.7 196.5 207.5 241.4 380.1 172.0 179.1 196.0 212.7 202.2 203.1 207.1 213.2 183.6 206.1 213.8 321.5 170.3 178.9 206.2 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 1.7 5.8 28.7 134.5 109.4 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.9 7.8 3.9 2.7 2.8 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 652.6 674.4 651.3 578.4 619.3 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 97.7 83.4 111.1 22.6 27.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 497.7 508.3 495.1 506.0 527.9 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 55.7 80.3 42.5 48.3 59.8 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 4.5 98.2 174.1 94.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 84.1 87.4 87.5 101.9 108.1 119.3 147.4 317.3 73.6 60.9 58.3 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 22.7 28.1 35.1 82.3 68.2 109.4 18.8 14.1 14.3 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 39.1 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 87.0 20.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CPB - Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, FED - Federal Reservse System, GDP - Gross domestic product, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, HICP - Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, IAADP - Internal Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMF - International Monetary Fund, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMD - International Institute for Management Development, SMA - Securities Market Agency, MI - Ministry of the Interior, MF - Ministry of Finance, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Real Unit Labour Costs, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS - Surveying and mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, WIIW - The Wienna Institute for International Economic Studies. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supplysewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror June 2010, No. 6. Vol. XVI